July 13, 2007 JAKARTA, INDONESIA: SECURITY ASSESSMENT Country The Republic of Indonesia is the world’s largest archipelago, comprised of more than 17,500 islands stretching more than 3,500 miles. The principal islands are Java, Sumatra, Bali, Sulawesi, the Moluccas, Borneo and New Guinea. With approximately 240 million people, Indonesia is the fourth most populous country and the most populous Muslim country in the world. More than half the population lives on the island of Java. Eighty-eight percent of the country is Muslim, 9 percent is Christian, 2 percent is Hindu and 1 percent is Buddhist. The official language is Bahasa Indonesia, but English is generally spoken in government and official circles. U.S. citizens requiring assistance in Indonesia can contact the U.S. Embassy’s main switchboard 24 hours a day, at (62-21) 3435-9000, and speak to the regional security office during regular business hours, from 7:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. After hours, citizens requiring assistance can call the same switchboard and reach the Marine security guard or the duty officer. The regional security officer is Earl Miller and the deputy regional security officer is Michael Lombardo. U.S. citizens experiencing an emergency situation should also contact local police. City Jakarta is the country’s capital, and with a population of nearly 10 million, it is also Indonesia’s largest city. It is located in northwestern Java. Jakarta, technically a province, is divided into six districts. The province is also divided into five cities: Central, East, North, South and West Jakarta. Central Jakarta is best suited for tourists, given its broad array of hotels, restaurants and shopping malls, as well as its reasonably efficient and safe public transportation system. North Jakarta is the home of Indonesia’s financial district and Jakarta’s largest shopping mall. South Jakarta is the largest of the five cities in the province. East Jakarta is the home of the Halim Perdanakusuma Airport, Taman Mini Indonesia Indah cultural park and Kramat Jati Market. Terrorism The main terrorist threat in Jakarta is from the militant Islamist group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), which seeks to establish a fundamentalist Islamic state across Southeast Asia and has conducted major terrorist attacks in the past. These attacks have included the August 2003 bombing of the JW Marriott hotel that killed 12 people and wounded more, as well as the September 2004 bombing outside the Australian Embassy that left 11 dead and at least 180 wounded -- both of which occurred in Jakarta. JI also has conducted attacks outside Jakarta, including the © 2007 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 1 October 2002 suicide bombing at a nightclub on the resort island of Bali that killed more than 200, and another bombing in Bali in October 2005 that killed more than 20. The Australian government, which keeps a very close watch over potential militant threats in Indonesia, updated its standard travel advisory for the Southeast Asian nation July 8. The updated warning claims that terrorist attacks could be imminent but does not increase the overall threat level for the country. This warning is based on the constant flow of intelligence about possible militant attacks, not on any specific threat. JI has been actively plotting terrorist attacks in 2007. In April, Indonesian and Australian authorities disrupted a plot to bomb Satya Wacana Christian University and assassinate a Central Java provincial government official. Counterterrorism officials said the bombers had acquired weapons and explosives for the university attack. Earlier, authorities in March conducted a series of raids, seizing more than 1,500 pounds of explosives and 200 detonators. Because of Australian and Indonesian cooperation on counterterrorism issues during the last five years, JI has faced an increasingly hostile operating environment. Senior JI figures, such as electronics specialist Dulmatin and bombmaker Noordin Mohammad Top, are believed to be on the run and possibly hiding out in the Philippines. Several recent arrests could have further disrupted JI’s ability to conduct attacks. Indonesian authorities detained eight suspected JI members on June 9, including two of the group’s top commanders. These arrests followed the March 26 arrest of a JI militant captured while in possession of 27 pounds of TNT and several prepared bombs. These disrupted plots indicate the effectiveness of the Indonesian and Australian authorities in countering the JI threat so far this year. Despite losing several top commanders, JI has operated effectively as a militant group in Indonesia for more than 10 years and should be considered as dangerous as ever. In addition, the location of all these arrests on Java suggests a continued JI presence there. The large quantity of explosives the group has managed to acquire and its ability to effectively assemble, deploy and detonate a bomb at a target site also indicate JI’s continued threat. Previous JI targets have included places frequented by Westerners, such as in the Bali nightclub bombing, as well as government installations, such as in the Australian Embassy bombing and the thwarted assassination attempt on the Central Java provincial government official. © 2007 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 2 Militants in Indonesia have shown an active interest in targeting places where Westerners gather. Outside Jakarta, certain areas appear at risk for terrorist attacks. The Australian government has warned against all nonessential travel to Bali due to the risk of terrorist attacks in areas frequented by Westerners. Other fundamentalist Islamist groups are active in Indonesia. These groups often advocate violence, but they most commonly use harassment directed at individuals not observing strict interpretations of Islamic codes. One of these groups is the Front Pembela Islam. The incidents occasionally involve violence, but they rarely cause injuries. The threat of terrorism in Jakarta is critical.1 Crime Pickpockets typically operate in crowded areas of the city, such as buses, train terminals and markets. Violence during any type of crime in Indonesia is uncommon compared with violence in major cities in the United States, and Westerners are not specifically targeted for such acts. Nevertheless, it is important to maintain a high state of vigilance over one’s person and belongings. The Glodok area of Jakarta in particular is considered to have a higher-than-normal incidence of crimes such as pickpocketing. Most organized crime in Jakarta focuses on pirating audio and visual media. Credit card abuse is also a major problem in Indonesia, so it is recommended that credit cards only be used at major commercial venues such as large hotels, international airports or large shopping centers. Credit cards can also be used safely at automated teller machines (ATMs), though for security purposes it is recommended that foreigners use ATMs located in hotel and bank lobbies or in other secure locations. The best ways to avoid crime are to avoid moving around the city on foot or via public transit. Avoid crowded and cramped venues, such as areas frequented by tourists. The ideal way to travel around the city is to call a reliable taxi service, such as the Blue Bird Group, rather than hail a cab on the street. While in a taxi, passengers are advised to keep their windows up and their doors locked. It is recommended that travelers not move around the city at night, but if travel at night is absolutely necessary, travelers should never use reading lights in vehicles because they allow criminals to see inside. The threat of crime in Jakarta is high.2 © 2007 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 3 War and Insurgency Indonesia faces no significant military threat from other countries. On the domestic front, however, several insurgent movements have been active in recent years, though they do not pose a significant threat to Jakarta or the island of Java at this time because the groups either are located far away or have been neutralized. The one insurgency that did pose a threat was the Free Aceh Movement (GAM), but following the 2004 tsunami that devastated parts of Aceh in western Sumatra, GAM signed an agreement to disarm. Sectarian fighting between Muslim and Christian factions in remote areas of the country, which has raged for years, shows no sign of letting up. The Australian government warned June 26 against travel under any circumstances to Central Sulawesi and Maluku provinces due to “credible information” about terrorists in the advanced stages of planning attacks. None of these groups, however, has staged terrorist attacks against Western targets in Jakarta, nor is there any indication they intend to do so in the near future. The threat of war and insurgency in Jakarta is low.3 Political Instability Indonesia is still recovering from the political and economic instability caused by the 1997 Asian economic crisis and the collapse of the Suharto regime. Following several years of political and social chaos, the government is offering new incentives to attract foreign direct investment (which increased steadily in 2005). Yet, struggles between regional and central governments still hamper the regime. Jakarta’s first-ever direct gubernatorial elections will be held Aug. 8. Active campaigns are currently under way. Candidate Fauzi Bowo is backed by a coalition of 20 of the city’s 24 opposition parties, while his opponent, Adang Daradjatun, is backed by the city’s largest party, the Prosperous Justice Party. At present, money politics is more of a factor than political intimidation, hence the risk of related violence is low. The U.S. government is unpopular in Indonesia, and U.S. foreign policy is even more unpopular. These sentiments have sparked protests in the past, and high-profile international incidents involving the United States have the potential to trigger further demonstrations. Should such protests occur, U.S. citizens nearby should be cautious and assume the demonstrations could become violent.