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Interest Rates and Financial Market Integration – a Long-Run Perspective on China

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Interest Rates and Financial Market Integration – a Long-Run Perspective on China The London School of Economics and Political Science Interest Rates and Financial Market Integration – A Long-run Perspective on China Jian-Jing Tang A Thesis submitted to the Department of Economic History of the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy London, January 2016 I Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the Phil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 65,233 words, inclusive of footnotes and appendices but exclusive of bibliography. II Abstract This thesis takes interest rates as the topic of interest, and studies financial market integration in China. Paper I studies structural determinants and temporal coefficients of interest rates scattered over 6th-20th century China. Detailed findings concern intrinsic loan features (such as maturity and creditor type, among others) and how they affected the interest rate level. Overall, interest rates decreased in the markets under study, with fluctuations corresponding with dynastic cycles, up-and-down. The two interest rate troughs are found around the 9th-11th century of the Song dynasty and the 19th century of the late Qing period. Significant events of political economy (wars and recovery, international relations and trade, etc.) significantly affected interest rates, but mostly through temporary shocks; economic development and its ensuing financial advancement (in institution, innovation, markets, etc.) tended to show qualitative and long-run impact on financial markets and interest rates. Part II estimates financial integration regarding 14th-20th century China. Firstly estimated is pair-wise integration based on time-series data in 18th-20th century China. Before 1840, distance was the major (but not the only) determinant of financial integration. The maximum range of financial integration at the time was up to 1,400 kilometres, which was slightly farther than that of commodity (grain) integration and confirms the macro-region theory of Skinner in that there was little cross-regional market interplay. However, the overall integration performance for the period before 1840 was limited, with large gaps between distance groups regarding both interest divergence and adjustment speed. A national financial market did not seem to emerge until the 19th century, when both local and cross-regional capital markets became more homogeneous (with converging interest rate gaps and synchronising arbitrage speed). However, the final wars (the 2nd anti-Japanese war and the 2nd civil war in China) before the People’s Republic of China (PRC) stopped this integration process. Secondly, overall integration among 23 provincial markets scattered over 57 years in the Ming and Qing period may be explained by three factors: education, population, and the relative position of the local market to all other markets. The spatial autoregressive coefficients were negative, suggesting that a local provincial market was negatively related to all other markets. Education and population represent the influence of innovation and commerce on overall integration respectively. They are positively associated with interest rate gaps, hence negatively connected to integration. However, such negative relationships might denote financial development in local markets, which lowered local interest rates and temporarily enlarged the interest rate gaps. Neither arable land nor warfare involvement was significant in explaining overall financial integration. III Acknowledgements My sincere gratitude goes to Prof. Oliver Volckart and Dr. Debin Ma, who took great efforts in reading my drafts and gave constructive advice throughout. I am heartily thankful to Prof. Joan Roses, Prof. Yuan Weipeng, Prof. Peng Kaixiang, Prof. Zhao Liuyan, Dr. Lars Boerner and Dr. David Chilosi for their generous help with my statistical methods or historical materials. I must also thank Prof. Max Schulze and Dr. Alejandra Irigoin for their constructive criticism on my draft. Finally, I’d like to thank my family, without whose love and unwavering support it would have been impossible for me to finish this doctoral thesis. IV Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................... III Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................... IV Table of Contents ............................................................................................................ V Figures........................................................................................................................... VI Tables ........................................................................................................................... VII Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 0.1 Why Market Integration? ............................................................................... 4 0.2 Why Financial Market and Interest Rates? .................................................... 8 0.3 Why China in a Secular Perspective? ........................................................... 13 0.4 Contribution and Outline .............................................................................. 23 Part I. Interest Rates................................................................................................. 28 Chapter 1 Context, Determinants and Trend .......................................................... 29 1.1 Monetary and Literature Background ................................................................. 29 1.2 Data Description .................................................................................................. 34 1.2.1 Data Sources .............................................................................................. 34 1.2.2 Data Quality............................................................................................... 40 1.2.3 Descriptive Statistics ................................................................................. 47 1.3 Interest Rate Determinants: Structural Regression ............................................. 62 1.3.1 Statistic Description and Model Specifications ......................................... 63 1.3.2 Empirical Result ........................................................................................ 79 1.4 Time Coefficients: Empirical Trends and Historical Evidence .......................... 89 1.5 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 111 Part II. Financial Integration in Late Imperial China .......................................... 113 Chapter 2 Regional Integration in the 18th-20th Century ...................................... 114 2.1 Time-series Methods ......................................................................................... 114 2.2 Statistic Description, Market Selection and Data Quality................................. 123 2.2.1 Data Description ...................................................................................... 123 2.2.2 Market Selection ...................................................................................... 127 2.2.3 Data Quality............................................................................................. 129 2.3 Empirical Result ................................................................................................ 132 2.4 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 149 Chapter 3 Overall Integration and Explanation .................................................... 151 3.1 Spatial Integration: the Method ......................................................................... 151 3.2 Data Distribution and Quality ........................................................................... 153 3.3 Empirical Result ................................................................................................ 163 3.4 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 169 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 171 V Appendix 1 Interpolation Technique .......................................................................... 174 Appendix 2 Time Table of Chinese Dynasties ........................................................... 176 Appendix 3 Regression Coefficients: External and Internal ....................................... 177 Appendix 4 Robustness Test (1): Specifications and Samples ................................... 179 Appendix 5 Robustness Test (2): Different Samples .................................................. 181 Appendix 6 Independent Variable Settings
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