DOCSLIB.ORG

“Conflict Conundrums” (An Article on Washington's Options in Kosovo, Cyprus, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh)

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
“Conflict Conundrums” (An Article on Washington's Options in Kosovo, Cyprus, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh) www.nationalinterest.org EDITOR : Nikolas K. Gvosdev • 1615 L Street, N.W. • Suite 1230 • Washington, D.C. 20036 • • (202) 467-4884 • Fax (202) 467-0006 • [email protected] • THE NATIONAL INTEREST Number 83 • Spring 2006 No part of this article may be copied, downloaded, stored, further transmitted, transfered, distributed, altered or otherwise used, in any form or by any means, except: • one stored electronic and one paper copy of any article solely for your personal, non-commercial use; or • with prior written permission of THE NATIONAL INTEREST. THE NATIONAL INTEREST (ISSN 0884-9382) is published quarterly by the The National In- terest, Inc., with the cooperation of The Nixon Center. Contact THE NATIONAL INTEREST for further permission regarding the use of this work. Copyright © 2006 by The National Interest, Inc. All rights reserved. HONORARY CHAIRMAN Henry A. Kissinger CHAIRMAN, ADVISORY COUNCIL James Schlesinger PUBLISHER Dimitri K. Simes ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER Paul J. Saunders CONTRIBUTING EDITORS Ian Bremmer Ted Galen Carpenter • Alexis Debat • John Hulsman • David B. Rivkin, Jr. • Ray Takeyh • Aluf Benn • Alexey Pushkov ADVISORY BOARD Morton Abramowitz • Graham Allison • Brian Beedham • Conrad Black • Robert F. Ellsworth • Mar- tin Feldstein • Fred C. Iklé • Daniel Pipes • Helmut Sonnenfeldt • Ruth Wedgwood • J. Robinson West • Dov Zakheim Conflict Conundrums Tim Potier UROPE’S UNRESOLVED tum to a potential Balkanization of the disputes—Kosovo’s bid for entire world. The question is whether E independence, the breakaway “consistency for consistency’s sake” is the regions of Georgia, the long-festering best approach. To escape the quandary Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the that the current stalemates in Kosovo, Greek-Turkish divide in Cyprus—pres- Cyprus and the Caucasus present, it may ent the United States and other global be time to utilize some creative thinking and regional powers with a policy di- that breaks us out of the “independence lemma: how to balance a people’s call for versus integrity” dilemma. autonomy with a desire to maintain the territorial integrity of existing states and Countdown for Kosovo preserve regional stability. None of these cases exists in a vacuum. A U.S. decision VER Since the ethnic trou- to support autonomy in one area, such as bles that rocked the province Kosovo, could embolden demands for in- E in the spring of 2004, the dependence by other groups. In turn, the international community has been in- manner in which Europe’s frozen con- creasingly concerned that Kosovar Alba- flicts are resolved could have a broader nians—frustrated so far in their bid for impact, setting precedents that might be independence from Serbia—could turn cited for Taiwan, West Papua or southern on the UN force that is precariously keep- Sudan, for example. ing the peace. Such a development would U.S. policymakers have a choice: destabilize the whole region. Those con- They can either apply guiding principles cerns prompted the United Nations to in brokering or mediating those disputes, commence (informally at first) status talks or consider each case independently in on Kosovo in November at Washington’s light of U.S. geopolitical interests. Inter- behest, after the voluntary surrender of national law falls, for the most part, on Kosovo’s then-Prime Minister Ramush the side of territorial integrity. Washing- Haradinaj to the War Crimes Tribunal in ton is similarly wary of lending momen- the Hague. Washington has been at pains to re- Tim Potier is assistant professor of international assure all interested actors that the out- law and human rights at Intercollege (Univer- come of the status talks has not been sity College) in Nicosia, Cyprus. He is author determined, but it appears the United of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and States has reconciled itself to the future South Ossetia: A Legal Appraisal (2000) and Cy- possibility of an independent Kosovo. prus: Entering Another Stalemate? (2005). That development could have far-reach- 88 The National Interest—Spring 2006 ing implications for Serbia, for America’s If such an approach is coupled with some and Europe’s relations with Russia, and form of (non-territorialized) Serbian self- for Europe’s other aspirants of autonomy. government, including protections for Most immediately, Serbia would elements of Serbian culture (such as lin- have to be placated. An independent guistic and educational traditions), then Kosovo could rile and give strength to such a compromise could well become Belgrade’s Serbian radicals. Serbians the preferred option. would be particularly angered by in- It is distinctly possible that Washing- dependence for Kosovo, given Serbia’s ton would view an independent Kosovo recent democratic progress. In addition, as a singular exception. The rest of the Serbia would have to be reassured with world, though, might not. With an eye on legally defined guarantees on the protec- Georgia’s restive areas, Russian President tion of the Serbian minority in Kosovo Vladimir Putin said in a press conference and its cultural heritage. on January 30 that a Kosovo precedent Although Belgrade publicly contin- would need to be applied to the other ues to reject independence for Kosovo, it “frozen conflicts” along Europe’s periph- has privately come to acknowledge that ery—such as the one between Georgia it may be unavoidable. If Montenegro and Abkhazia. moves this year towards its own indepen- dence through a referendum, Kosovo’s What Happens in the Caucasus continuing status as some form of UN- managed Serbian province will look ever ecaUSE OF the importance more absurd. of the Caucasus as a transit The international community could B route for Caspian energy, and try to induce Serbia’s cooperation through because of Russia’s leading role in the the prospect of that country’s entry to region, the West has discovered it has the European Union. Serbia might then a strong interest in how local separatist subordinate its ethnic and cultural sen- conflicts are settled. Moscow’s firm pos- sitivities to its far more vital goals of at- turing has prevented Georgia from more taining EU membership at the earliest forcefully reining in its breakaway re- possible date, securing its position within gions, which have developed good politi- the Western alliance (perhaps with NATO cal ties with Moscow. Georgia’s troubles membership), and attempting to establish with its rebel areas have in part prevented itself as the prime diplomatic actor in the it from more definitively entering the region. West’s orbit by complicating a potential An independent Kosovo, though, entry to NATO and the European Union. would raise new demands for self-de- Washington’s priority vis-à-vis Geor- termination by the Serb minority there, gia should not be to preserve its territo- highlighting just how untidy the business rial integrity at all costs, but rather to of partition can be. If independence for ensure that Russia withdraws its mili- Kosovo is the option taken, an equally tary forces by 2008, the date Moscow has damned decision will have to be made as committed to under a Russian-Georgian to whether it is received whole or in parts. agreement of May 2005. America can If Kosovo itself is not partitioned, then its do little to alleviate the hostility of the independence will have to be guided by Abkhaz and Ossetian people towards a an EU-led mission with reserved powers, return to Tbilisi’s rule. Moreover, there while strenuous efforts would have to be may be nothing that Washington can made to persuade the Serbian population offer Moscow in return for its full coop- to participate in governmental structures. eration with the reunification of Georgia. Conflict Conundrums 89 Consequently, Washington may seek to to “sacrifice” Armenia and accept the trade the independence of those areas for continued presence of Russian troops in the removal of Russian forces and Geor- Armenia in the interest of establishing gia’s eventual entry into NATO. some sort of security cordon in Georgia The Georgian government would not and Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh could welcome such a deal—but Tbilisi’s maxi- be gradually absorbed into Armenia. This malist position may not be in line with could be done with the return of six of larger U.S. interests. The United States the seven occupied districts surround- needs Russia’s continued support in the ing Nagorno-Karabakh proper (minus War on Terror in securing weapons-grade Lachin), the right of return for displaced material and promoting stability in Af- Azeris to Nagorno-Karabakh, and com- ghanistan; with North Korea and Iran on pensation (for permanent resettlement) non-proliferation; and via NATO’s move- for those that did not want to return. ment into the post-Soviet space. During At any rate, Washington would not these crucial times, Washington should lose Armenia completely under such a not seek to push Moscow over the edge scenario. Armenia’s sizeable U.S. and Eu- for the sake of a resolution of Abkhazia, ropean diaspora would guarantee that which is marginal to U.S. strategic inter- good diplomatic and trading relations ests. In the past few years, some normali- would continue. The Armenians, mean- ty has returned to Abkhazia, with Russian while, could be reassured by a “soft” Rus- tourists bringing much-needed rubles. sian security guarantee, which would also With the opening of the Baku-Tbilisi- satisfy Moscow by the fact it had retained Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, Washington’s pri- a military outpost in the south Caucasus. ority should be to maintain stability in the central core of Georgia. What About Cyprus? In the case of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Armenia and Azerbai- he ISLanD of Cyprus was jan, pipeline politics will also prevail. physically divided in 1974, Washington will favor stability, and U.S.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Executive Intelligence Review, Volume 34, Number 37, September
    Executive Intelligence Review EIRSeptember 21, 2007 Vol. 34 No. 37 www.larouchepub.com $10.00 Schiller Institute: Eurasian Land-Bridge Is a Reality Bailout of Bankrupt Funds Bars Mortgage Crisis Fix LaRouche Celebrates ‘This New Millennium of Ours!’ Financiers Are ‘Up to Their Eyeballs in Caymans’ Founder and Contributing Editor: Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr. Editorial Board: Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr., Muriel Mirak-Weissbach, Antony Papert, Gerald Rose, Dennis Small, Edward Spannaus, Nancy EI R Spannaus, Jeffrey Steinberg, William Wertz Editor: Nancy Spannaus Managing Editor: Susan Welsh Assistant Managing Editor: Bonnie James Science Editor: Marjorie Mazel Hecht From the Managing Editor Technology Editor: Marsha Freeman Book Editor: Katherine Notley Photo Editor: Stuart Lewis Circulation Manager: Stanley Ezrol Who’s the guy on our cover? Some among our readers who are in INTELLIGENCE DIRECTORS need of new eyeglasses, may mistake him for Alan Greenspan—and Counterintelligence: Jeffrey Steinberg, Michele they wouldn’t be too far wrong. But this cayman is actually the CEO of Steinberg Economics: Marcia Merry Baker, Paul Gallagher a hedge fund in Queen Elizabeth’s Caribbean financial center, the Cay- History: Anton Chaitkin Ibero-America: Dennis Small man Islands. See John Hoefle’s chronicle (p. 15) for the gory details. Law: Edward Spannaus Our Feature documents how the U.S. home mortgage crisis is spin- Russia and Eastern Europe: Rachel Douglas ning so far out of control, that it threatens to bring down the global fi- United States: Debra Freeman nancial system any day—and yet, the U.S. Congress refuses to act. INTERNATIONAL BUREAUS With the Executive branch hijacked by Anglo-Dutch Liberalism, there Bogotá: Javier Almario Berlin: Rainer Apel is no other branch of government that can initiate effective action at this Copenhagen: Poul Rasmussen time.
    [Show full text]
  • Modes of Iraqi Resistance to American Occupation
    Modes of Iraqi Resistance to American Occupation Jeremy Pressman University of Connecticut Department of Political Science 2005-4 About the Matthew B. Ridgway Center The Matthew B. Ridgway Center for International Security Studies at the University of Pittsburgh is dedicated to producing original and impartial analysis that informs policymakers who must confront diverse challenges to international and human security. Center programs address a range of security concerns—from the spread of terrorism and technologies of mass destruction to genocide, failed states, and the abuse of human rights in repressive regimes. The Ridgway Center is affiliated with the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs (GSPIA) and the University Center for International Studies (UCIS), both at the University of Pittsburgh. This working paper is one of several outcomes of the Ridgway Working Group on Challenges to U.S. Foreign and Military Policy chaired by Davis B. Bobrow. Modes of Iraqi Resistance to American Occupation Jeremy Pressman, University of Connecticut Department of Political Science The United States invaded Iraq in March 2003 with a clear vision for Iraq’s future. In moving to topple Saddam Hussein, Washington foresaw the development of a stable, democratic, friendly, and non-threatening Iraq. Resistance to U.S. preferences, however, developed from day one and over time the United States was forced to modify its policies and lower its expectations. Political and military, not to mention violent, opposition to U.S. and allied officials revealed the problematic U.S. assumptions going into the war and led to repeated changes in US policy. In addition to the direct human, financial, and political costs, the long term implications of Iraqi resistance are significant.
    [Show full text]
  • Foialog FY07.Pdf
    Request ID Requester Name Organization Received Date Closed Date Request Description 07-F-0001 Connolly, Ward - 10/2/2006 10/2/2006 All records regarding the service of the 208th Engineer Combat Battalion anytime between December 7, 1941 and January 1, 1947. 07-F-0002 Slocum, Phillip - 10/2/2006 10/2/2006 Information relating to an operation at the end of the Gulf War in April of 1991 dubbed "Operation Manly Rip". 07-F-0004 Skelley, Lynne Federal Sources, 10/2/2006 - A clearly releasable copy of Sections A through J of the awarded contract, including Inc. the statement of work, for the contract awarded from solicitation number HROO11O6ROO2. 07-F-0005 Skelley, Lynne Federal Sources, 10/2/2006 10/3/2006 A copy of Section A (the cover page) for any contract awarded to date from Inc. solicitation number EFTHQ00038615002. 07-F-0006 Skelley, Lynne Federal Sources, 10/2/2006 6/29/2007 A copy of Section A (the cover page) for any contract awarded to date from Inc. solicitation number BAA0539. 07-F-0007 Skelley, Lynne Federal Sources, 10/2/2006 1/10/2007 A clearly releasable copy of Section A (the cover page) of any contract awarded to Inc. date off of solicitation number BAAO6O6. 07-F-0008 Battle, Joyce The National 10/2/2006 - All documents from March 1 through December 31, 2003 concerned with Security Archive discussions with the United Kingdom regarding 1) the establishment of the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq; and 2) the legal status of the CPA. 07-F-0009 Kurtzman, Daniel Law Offices of 10/2/2006 10/11/2006 Requesting: 1.
    [Show full text]
  • US-Pakistan Counter-Terrorism Cooperation: Dynamics and Challenges Shanthie D’Souza Abstract Pakistan Is a Frontline Ally of the US in Its Global War on Terrorism
    US-Pakistan Counter-Terrorism Cooperation: Dynamics and Challenges Shanthie D’Souza Abstract Pakistan is a frontline ally of the US in its Global War on Terrorism. After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the military regime was compelled by Washington to join the US effort to dismantle the Taliban-Al Qaida terrorist infrastructure in Afghanistan and Pakistan that successive regimes had nurtured. While the Pakistani military regime’s cooperation is deemed to be crucial for the success of the US counter-terrorism strategy, there appear to be growing strains and challenges that give rise to fundamental questions about the outcome of such cooperation. This is clearly seen in the revival of the Taliban and the continuing activities of terrorist and militant groups based in Pakistan, the increasing anti-American backlash among segments of the Pakistani and Afghan populations, and the electoral gains made by the Islamist parties in Pakistan. The US-Pakistan counter-terrorism efforts clearly suffer from myriad shortcomings. Alternative approaches by the United States that move beyond engaging the Pakistani military alone and focus on the civilian sector are necessary if the goals of counter-terrorism are to be achieved in the region. In the immediate aftermath of 9/11 attacks on the United States, Pakistan emerged as a ‘crucial partner’ in the United States-led Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). Given Pakistan’s geo-strategic position, its strong linkages with the Taliban, and the presence of dozens of armed militant Islamic groups in the country it was called upon to play `an important’ role in destroying the operational capabilities of the Taliban-Al Qaida combine – a situational turnaround in US-Pakistan relations from what prevailed through the 1990s.
    [Show full text]
  • Masterthesis Thomas Jacobs
    Faculteit Letteren & Wijsbegeerte Thomas Jacobs The Spectacle of Terrorism A Topic Modeling Approach to the Discursive Construction of Violence Masterproef voorgedragen tot het behalen van de graad van Master of Arts in de Geschiedenis 2014-2015 Promotor: Prof. Dr. Christophe Verbruggen, Vakgroep Geschiedenis 2 THE SPECTACLE OF TERRORISM: A TOPIC MODELING APPROACH TO THE DISCURSIVE CONSTRUCTION OF VIOLENCE 3 They stack the bodies a thousand high A carnal monument to touch the sky They crown the peaks So far estranged But down in the dirt, nothing has changed Into the rabble, the panic seeps One target hisses, another weeps They scale the walls, their minds deranged But down in the dirt, nothing has changed - Refused 4 Samenvatting Deze thesis gaat over terrorisme, of liever over dat wat we in het algemeen als terrorisme bestempelen. Ik ga er immers van uit dat er niet zomaar een vast omlijnd fenomeen uit de realiteit is dat terrorisme heet. Terrorisme is in de eerste plaats een ‘label’ dat we met z’n allen toekennen aan bepaalde uitingen van geweld. Met deze constructivistische stellingname sluit ik me aan bij een relatief kleine maar groeiende niche in het onderzoek die als ‘ Critical Terrorism Studies ’ door het leven gaat. In het eerste deel heb ik geprobeerd om de complexe processen van betekenisgeving rond terrorisme te bestuderen, in onze maatschappij in het algemeen en binnen de academische wereld in het bijzonder. Het discours waarmee we aan terrorisme betekenis geven, noem ik hegemonisch omdat het ons collectieve denken en spreken domineert. Typisch aan dit discours is dat het terrorisme voorstelt als een objectief gegeven, als iets tastbaars.
    [Show full text]
  • Currenttrends in ISLAMIST IDEOLOGY
    CurrentTrends IN ISLAMIST IDEOLOGY VOLUME 23 June, 2018 ■ ERBAKAN, KISAKÜREK, AND THE MAINSTREAMING OF EXTREMISM IN TURKEY Svante E. Cornell ■ THE MILLI MUSLIM LEAGUE: THE DOMESTIC POLITICS OF PAKISTAN’S LASHKAR-E-TAIBA C. Christine Fair ■ THE SUNNI RELIGIOUS LEADERSHIP IN IRAQ Nathaniel Rabkin ■ HOW AL-QAEDA WORKS: THE JIHADIST GROUP’S EVOLVING ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN Daveed Gartenstein-Ross & Nathaniel Barr ■ CONFLICTS IN INDONESIAN ISLAM Paul Marshall Hudson Institute Center on Islam, Democracy, and the Future of the Muslim World CurrentTrends IN ISLAMIST IDEOLOGY VOLUME 23 Edited by Hillel Fradkin, Husain Haqqani, and Eric Brown Hudson Institute Center on Islam, Democracy, and the Future of the MuslimWorld ©2018 Hudson Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. ISSN: 1940-834X For more information about obtaining additional copies of this or other Hudson Institute publica- tions, please visit Hudson’s website at www.hudson.org/bookstore or call toll free: 1-888-554-1325. ABOUT HUDSON INSTITUTE Hudson Institute is a nonpartisan, independent policy research organization dedicated to innova- tive research and analysis that promotes global security, prosperity, and freedom. Founded in 1961 by strategist Herman Kahn, Hudson Institute challenges conventional thinking and helps man- age strategic transitions to the future through interdisciplinary studies in defense, international re- lations, economics, health care, technology, culture, and law. With offices in Washington and New York, Hud son seeks to guide public policymakers and global leaders in government and business through a vigorous program of publications, conferences, policy briefings, and recommendations. Hudson Institute is a 501(c)(3) organization financed by tax-deductible contributions from private individuals, corporations, foundations, and by government grants.
    [Show full text]
  • The Palestinian Shahid and the Development of the Model 21St Century Islamic Terrorist
    California State University, San Bernardino CSUSB ScholarWorks Theses Digitization Project John M. Pfau Library 2008 The Palestinian Shahid and the development of the model 21st century Islamic terrorist Benjamin Timothy Acosta Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd-project Part of the Terrorism Studies Commons Recommended Citation Acosta, Benjamin Timothy, "The Palestinian Shahid and the development of the model 21st century Islamic terrorist" (2008). Theses Digitization Project. 3367. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd-project/3367 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the John M. Pfau Library at CSUSB ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses Digitization Project by an authorized administrator of CSUSB ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE PALESTINIAN SHAHID AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF 'THE MODEL 2.1st CENTURY ISLAMIC' TERRORIST A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of California State University, San Bernardino In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts in National Security Studies by Benjamin Timothy Acosta June 2008 THE PALESTINIAN SHAHID AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL 21st CENTURY ISLAMIC TERRORIST A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of California State University, San Bernardino by Benjamin Timothy Acosta June 2008 Approved by: Date © 2008 Benjamin T. Acosta ABSTRACT Since the early 1990s, Palestinian organizations have drawn from many sources and incrementally refined the process of suicide terrorism. By making the modus operandi socially acceptable and even fashionable, Palestinian organizations have normalized the deployment of suicide­ homicide bombers. These organizations have optimized the progress individuals take from reasoning and justifying to rationalizing and actually committing suicide terrorism.
    [Show full text]
  • Tablet Magazine
    Tablet Magazine http://www.tabletmag.com/news-and-politics/66964/double-a... Tablet Magazine is a project of Nextbook Inc. About Us | Contact | Terms of Service | Double Agent The Arab Spring has cast new light on resistance in the Middle East. A rare 2007 encounter with the leader of Iran’s Jundullah reveals the murky place held by the region’s so-called freedom fighters. BY WILLEM MARX | May 10, 2011 7:00 AM A light gray car idled in the dust of the intersection. Rust ran along its running board, and its windshield was tinted black against the sun. I stepped out of my own SUV, said farewell to my driver, Habib, and interpreter, Hakeem, slung my gear over my shoulder, and clambered inside, where the driver and other passengers, dressed in traditional shalwar kameez with swirling baggy pantaloons, greeted me with handshakes and salaams. I quickly surmised I was not the only one to have gone several days without washing. We spent that night in 2007 in a local safe house, where I was asked to dismantle my phones and camera for a security inspection before bedding down on the carpeted floor. Early the following morning I was driven along the course of a dry riverbed. On the outskirts of the ramshackle city of Turbat we approached a bridge, one of Pakistan’s last military checkpoints Abdulmalik Rigi, the former leader of the Sunni Iranian rebel before the Iranian border. With my bearded foreigner’s face hidden by the group Jundullah, in Balochistan, 2007. darkened glass, we were waved through.
    [Show full text]
  • Carlos Setas Vílchez What Are We Talking About When We Talk About Al- Qaeda?
    Carlos Setas Vílchez What are we talking about when we talk about al- Qaeda? Carlos Setas Vílchez PhD in International Security, Intelligence Analyst at Pangea Intelligence Ltd. E-mail: [email protected] - Submited: March 2014. - Accepted: September 2014. WHAT ARE WE TALKING ABOUT WHEN WE TALK ABOUT AL- QAEDA Abstract This paper puts into context the knowledge gathered on the al Qaeda terrorist organisation over the past 15 years. It briefly assesses the approach taken, primarily by academia, to the study of al Qaeda, and how this may have led to misinterpretations. The article points to a certain lack of rigour amongst some academics in favour of immediacy in order to be the first to publish studies on the phenomenon of religious Islamic terrorism. Subsequently, the history of al Qaeda is studied from its origins to its partial dismemberment and dismantling in Pakistan in the mid-2000s. When carrying out this study, the limited information available from primary sources, such as the letters from Abbottabad and other documents from the CTC’s Harmony Project, were used. KeyWords Al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, terrorism, Pakistan, jihad 1 Journal of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies N. 4 / 2014 WHAT ARE WE TALKING ABOUT WHEN WE TALK ABOUT AL- QAEDA? 1. INTRODUCTION hirteen years after the September 11 attacks against the United States, the knowledge we have today of the organisation responsible for the attacks rema- ins incomplete, despite the vast amount and variety of material that has been Tpublished on the subject. The first part of this article briefly explains why this has come about and outlines the general starting points and approach taken by academia to the research of al Qaeda.
    [Show full text]
  • Campbell O'hanlon 93-101
    www.nationalinterest.org EDITOR : Nikolas K. Gvosdev • 1615 L Street, N.W. • Suite 1230 • Washington, D.C. 20036 • • (202) 467-4884 • Fax (202) 467-0006 • [email protected] • THE NATIONAL INTEREST Number 80 • Summer 2005 No part of this symposium may be copied, downloaded, stored, further transmitted, transfered, distributed, altered or otherwise used, in any form or by any means, except: •one stored electronic and one paper copy of any article solely for your personal, non-commercial use; or • with prior written permission of THE NATIONAL INTEREST. THE NATIONAL INTEREST (ISSN 0884-9382) is published quarterly by the The National In- terest, Inc., with the cooperation of The Nixon Center. Contact THE NATIONAL INTEREST for further permission regarding the use of this work. Copyright © 2005 by The National Interest, Inc. All rights reserved. CHAIRMAN James R. Schlesinger PUBLISHER Dmitri K. Simes CONTRIBUTING EDITORS Ian Bremmer Ted Galen Carpenter • Alexis Debat • John Hulsman • David B. Rivkin, Jr. • Paul J. Saunders • Ray Takeyh ADVISORY BOARD Morton Abramowitz • Graham Allison • Brian Beedham • Conrad Black • Robert F. Ellsworth • Martin Feld- stein • Fred C. Iklé • Daniel Pipes • Helmut Sonnenfeldt • Ruth Wedgwood • J. Robinson West • Dov Zakheim Untitled iKurt M. Campbell & Michael O’Hanloni OW COULD a decorated National security rightly emerged as war hero, experienced sena- the predominant issue of the 2004 elec- H tor and outstanding debater tion. Some 34 percent of the electorate lose a presidential race that turned largely cited either Iraq or the War on Terror as on national security issues to an incum- the policy issue of greatest concern, a bent who during his first term badly mis- significant jump from the twelve percent calculated both the urgency of the main that cited “world affairs” in 2000.
    [Show full text]
  • Bush Plans War on Iran
    Bush Plans War on Iran By Prof. Marjorie Cohn Region: Middle East & North Africa, USA Global Research, September 02, 2007 Theme: US NATO War Agenda 2 September 2007 In-depth Report: IRAN: THE NEXT WAR? The Sunday Times of London is reporting that the Pentagon has plans for three days of massive air strikes against 1,200 targets in Iran . Last week, Alexis Debat, director of terrorism and national security at the Nixon Center , told a meeting of The National Interest, a conservative foreign policy journal, that the military did not intend to carry out “pinprick strikes” against Iranian nuclear facilities. He said, “They’re about taking out the entire Iranian military.” Bush has already set the wheels in motion. With Rovian timing, Alberto Gonzales’ resignation was sandwiched between two Bush screeds – one aimed at ensuring Congress scares up $50 billion more for the occupation of Iraq , the other designed to scare us into supporting war on Iran . As Gonzales rides off into the sunset, the significant questions are who will take his place and how that choice will facilitate Bush’s occupation of Iraq and attack on Iran . One name that’s been floated for Bush’s third attorney general is Joe Lieberman, the “independent” senator from Connecticut . Lieberman, who advocates the use of military force against Iran , was the only person Bush quoted in his August 28 speech to the American Legion. Bush called Iran “the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism” and pledged to “confront Tehran ‘s murderous activities.” Gonzales greased the Bush/Cheney wheels for torturing in violation of the Geneva Conventions, illegally spying on Americans, and purging disloyal Bushies.
    [Show full text]
  • Non-Military Strategies for Countering Islamist Terrorism: Lessons Learned from Past Counterinsurgencies Kurt M
    Non-Military Strategies For Countering Islamist Terrorism: Lessons Learned From Past Counterinsurgencies Kurt M. Campbell and Richard Weitz The Princeton Project Papers The Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University he Princeton Project on National Security is a three-year, bi-partisan initiative Tto develop a sustainable and effective national security strategy for the United States of America. Under the stewardship of honorary co-chairs George Shultz and Anthony Lake, the Princeton Project brought together leading thinkers on national security from government, academe, business, and the non-profit sector to analyze key issues and develop innovative responses to a range of national security threats. Through the generous support of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and Non-military Strategies For Countering International Affairs at Princeton University, the Ford Foundation, and Mr. David Rubenstein, the Princeton Project has: Islamist Terrorism: • Convened and published the findings of seven working groups that Lessons Learned From Past Counterinsurgencies addressed different aspects of national security – including grand strategy, state security and transnational threats, economics and national security, anti-Americanism, reconstruction and development, relative threat assessment, and global institutions and foreign policy infrastructure; • Held nine conferences in the United States and abroad to explore major issues pertaining to U.S. national security ranging from the use of The Princeton Project Papers preventive force to the role of the private sector; • Commissioned seventeen working papers on critical security topics that Kurt M. Campbell and Richard Weitz hitherto had received scant attention. The Princeton Project culminates with the release of its Final Report by Project co-directors G.
    [Show full text]