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Warrington Motorway Service Area, J11 M62 Environmental Statement

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Warrington Motorway Service Area, J11 M62 Environmental Statement Extra MSA Group Warrington Motorway Service Area, J11 M62 Environmental Statement Part 2 – Climate Change Technical Paper 13 Revision F August 2019 Revision Record Revision Date of Revision Nature of Author Checked By Reference Revision A 28/01/2019 Template Set Megan Pearce Paul Evans Up B 13/02/2019 Vulnerability Megan Pearce Paul Evans and Risk Assessment C 22/03/2019 Baseline Megan Pearce Paul Evans D 2/04/2019 Impact Megan Pearce Paul Evans Assessment E 11/04/2019 Draft Review Megan Pearce Paul Evans F 23/07/2019 Final Update Megan Pearce Paul Evans including peat mitigation G 07/08/2019 Fina Review Megan Pearce Paul Evans ES Part 2 – Climate Change – Warrington MSA, J11 M62 2 Report Author Megan Pearce Report Date August 2019 Project No. SH11739 Document Ref. 001 Revision G Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................... 5 2. Documents Consulted .......................................................................... 6 Legislation ........................................................................................................................................................ 6 National Planning Policy Framework (2019) .......................................................................................... 8 Local Planning Policy ..................................................................................................................................... 9 3. Consultations ....................................................................................... 15 4. Methodology and Approach ............................................................... 16 Baseline Scenario ........................................................................................................................................ 16 Absolute Scenario ...................................................................................................................................... 17 Receptors ..................................................................................................................................................... 18 Environmental Impacts .............................................................................................................................. 18 Significance of Effects ................................................................................................................................. 18 Impact Prediction Confidence ................................................................................................................. 20 5. Baseline Information ........................................................................... 21 6. Alternatives Considered ..................................................................... 22 7. Potential Environmental Effects ........................................................ 24 Construction Phase ................................................................................................................................... 24 Operational Phase ...................................................................................................................................... 25 ES Part 2 – Climate Change – Warrington MSA, J11 M62 3 8. Proposed Mitigation ............................................................................ 27 Operational Phase ...................................................................................................................................... 27 9. Potential Residual Effects ................................................................... 30 Potential Residual Effects – Operational Phase .................................................................................. 30 10. Additive Impacts (Cumulative Impacts and their Effects) ............. 32 11. Mitigation of Climate Change ............................................................ 35 12. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment.................................................... 36 Global Climate Change Projections ...................................................................................................... 36 Regional Climate Change Projections ................................................................................................... 37 Climate Change Impacts on Infrastructure ......................................................................................... 41 13. Conclusion ............................................................................................ 48 14. Reference List ...................................................................................... 49 15. Appendices ........................................................................................... 51 Tables and Figures: Table 3.1: Summary of Consultations and Discussions Table 4.1: Significance criteria for environmental impact. Table 4.2: Confidence Levels Table 7.1: Summary of energy demand and associated emissions - Operation Phase Table 7.2: Significance of Effect - Operation Phase Table 9.1: Residual Significance of Effect - Operation Phase Table 10.1: Cumulative Impacts: synergistic effects Table 12.1: Projected global impacts of climate change Table 12.2: Potential effects of climate change on the Proposed Development Figure 12.1: Climate projections of mean air temperature anomaly across four RCP scenarios up to 2100 Figure 12.2: Climate projections of precipitation rate anomaly across four RCP scenarios up to 2100 Appendices: Appendix 13.1 – Legislation, Policy and Regulation Review Appendix 13.2 – Energy Statement Appendix 13.3 – Utilities Assessment Appendix 13.4 – Sustainability Statement ES Part 2 – Climate Change – Warrington MSA, J11 M62 4 1. Introduction 1.1. This Technical Paper from the ES has been produced by Wardell Armstrong to assess the likely significant effects of the Proposed Development in terms of climate change in the context of the Site and surrounding area, and the wider environment, recognizing that climate change is a global issue. 1.2. Three aspects of climate change assessment will be presented within this chapter: • Assessment of Impacts: A conventional impact assessment that will focus on the potential effects of the Proposed Development (i.e. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the climate); • Mitigation of Climate Change: An overview of how the Proposed Development aids in the mitigation of climate change; and • Vulnerability and Risk Assessment: A qualitative discussion of the vulnerability of the Proposed Development to climate change effects that will highlight the potential risk of major accidents occurring as a result of a changing global climate. 1.3. This Technical Paper is not intended to be read as a standalone assessment and reference should be made to Appendices 13.1-13.4, ES Part I and other technical papers within ES Part 2. ES Part 2 – Climate Change – Warrington MSA, J11 M62 5 2. Documents Consulted Legislation Climate Change Act 2008 2.1. The Climate Change Act 2008 establishes the framework for the UK to set and deliver greenhouse gas emission reduction targets; mainly through the establishment of the Committee on Climate Change which ensures targets are evidence based and independently assessed. The Act commits the UK government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a minimum of 80% below 1990 baseline levels by 2050. In addition to this, the Government is also required to regularly report on emission target progress, assess the risks and opportunities to the UK associated with climate change, and develop preparation and adaptive plans for these. 2.2. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment1 is required to be produced every five years under the Climate Change Act 2008, in order to look at the risks and opportunities arising for the UK from climate change. The 2017 series of reports, alongside other documents from the European Commission2 and National House Building Council Foundation3 are used in this chapter to assess potential vulnerabilities and adaptive potential of the Proposed Development and site regarding climate change impacts. Town and Country Planning EIA Regulations 20174 2.3. On the 16th May 2017, the European Commission Environmental Impact Assessment Directive (2014/52/EU) was incorporated into English law under the Town and Country Planning (Environmental Impact Assessment) Regulations 2017. This legislation requires the consideration of climate change within an EIA. The key text in relation to climate change is provided below. 1 HM Government (2017). UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. HMSO, London. 2 European Commission, 2013. Staff Working Document (2013) 137 final ‘Adapting infrastructure to climate change’. EC, Brussels. 3 National House Building Council Foundation (2007). Climate change and innovation in house building: designing out risk (NF3). NHBC Foundation, Buckinghamshire. 4 Statutory Instrument 2017 No. 571 (2017). Town and Country Planning (Environmental Impact Assessment) Regulations 2017. HMSO, London. ES Part 2 – Climate Change – Warrington MSA, J11 M62 6 Schedule 3: Regulation 5(4) 1(f): “The characteristics of development must be considered with particular regard to the risk of major accidents and/or disasters relevant to the development concerned, including those caused by climate change, in accordance with scientific knowledge.” Schedule 4: Regulation 18(3) INFORMATION FOR INCLUSION IN ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENTS “A description of the likely significant effects of the development on the environmental resulting from, inter alia:” … 4: “A description
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