A FRAMEWORK FOR 2 DEGREES SCENARIO ANALYSIS: A Guide for Oil and Gas Companies and Investors for Navigating the Energy Transition ABOUT CERES Ceres is a non-profit organization that is mobilizing many of the world’s largest companies and investors to take stronger action on climate change, water scarcity and other global sustainability challenges. Ceres directs the Investor Network on Climate Risk, a group of 124 institutional investors managing $15 trillion in assets focused on the business risks and opportunities of climate change and water scarcity. Ceres also engages with 100-plus companies, many of them Fortune 500 businesses, committed to sustainable business practices and the urgency for strong climate and clean energy policies. For more information, visit www.ceres.org or follow on Twitter@CeresNews. ABOUT AMY MYERS JAFFE Amy Myers Jaffe is a leading expert on global energy policy, geopolitical risk, and energy and sustainability. Jaffe serves as executive director for Energy and Sustainability at University of California, Davis, and as senior advisor, energy and sustainability to the Office of the Chief Investment Officer of the Regents, University of California. She is associate editor (North America) for the academic journal Energy Strategy Reviews and serves on the editorial board of the Journal of Economics and Energy and Environmental Policy. Jaffe’s research focuses on sustainable investment, corporate investment strategies in the energy sector, and oil and gas geopolitics. Jaffe is also a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington D.C. ABOUT CERES’ CARBON ASSET RISK (CAR) INITIATIVE Persistently low oil prices, the success of the Paris Agreement, and the rapid evolution of clean energy technologies have combined to present the oil and gas industry with a significant risk to its business model. Ceres’ Carbon Asset Risk Initiative (CAR) aims to improve long-term shareholder value by encouraging fossil fuel companies to adapt their strategies to take carbon risk into account. Learn more by visiting www.ceres.org/carbonassetrisk or by contacting Shanna Cleveland at [email protected]. Graphic design by Sarah Mahoney. © Ceres 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................... 3 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 6 WHY SCENARIO PLANNING IS ESSENTIAL FOR EXAMINING CLIMATE RISKS ........................... 9 A PRIMER ON SETTING UP A SCENARIOS ANALYSIS EXERCISE ............................................13 THE SCENARIO CREATION PROCESS ................................................................................15 Basic Components of a Scenario Exercise Process ................................................................................. 15 Establishing a Base Framework for 2 Degrees C Scenarios ..................................................................... 17 The Elements of a Best Practice 2 Degrees C Scenario .......................................................................... 18 Understanding the International Energy Agency (IEA) Reference Case ................................................... 18 Conceptualizing Abatement Opportunities, by Category of Emissions Reduction Strategy ........................ 19 Consideration of Emissions and Abatement Potential, by Sector ............................................................. 22 UTILIZING KEY 2 DEGREES C SCENARIO INDICATORS AS GUIDEPOSTS IN CORPORATE PLANNING ............................................................................................... 23 Case Study: ConocoPhillips ………… ................................................................................................ 26 CLIMATE RISK DISCLOSURE CONTEXT AND BEST PRACTICES .............................................. 28 COMPANY CLIMATE CHANGE READINESS: WHAT ARE INVESTORS LOOKING FOR? ................ 31 APPENDIX: SEC CLIMATE DISCLOSURES OF MAJOR OIL & GAS COMPANIES ......................... 34 A FRAMEWORK FOR 2 DEGREES SCENARIO ANALYSIS | 1 2 | WWW.CERES.ORG EXECUTIVE SUMMARY For decades, investors have been engaging with fossil fuel companies around the risks and opportunities associated with climate change. These investor-led initiatives have ranged from efforts to increase company investment in renewable energy to improving operational efficiency to addressing methane emissions and beyond. However, for much of that time, companies to include policymakers, analysts, and other largely dismissed investor concerns about market actors. The goal of this initiative has the potential for dramatic shifts in business- been to ensure that the fossil fuel industry, as-usual market dynamics due to global in which these investors hold major stakes, is action on climate change. Fossil fuel prepared for the transition to a low-carbon companies expressed skepticism about global economy. the need to factor in the possibility of a Key among the steps that investors called broad, global set of initiatives that would for is an assessment of the impacts on a lead to meaningful policy intervention on company’s portfolio and business strategy climate change. Nearly without exception, of policies and restrictions consistent with the world’s leading oil and gas companies achieving the globally agreed upon target have based long term business planning to limit global average temperature rise to on a business-as-usual, rising oil demand no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre- outlook. Given that the industry regularly industrial levels. This request achieved new invests in projects with multi-decadal time urgency when the 21st Conference of the horizons, the decisions companies make Parties to the United Nations Framework today will help determine their financial Convention on Climate Change achieved viability far into the future. Widespread unanimous agreement and outlined a assumptions that the future would resemble clear path to achieve this target in Paris the past created a false sense of certainty in December 2015. On the corporate level, and optimism regarding technology and pressed by shareholders and governments, climate risk, leading, in cases, to inefficient a group of European and international deployment of capital. companies has formed the Oil and Gas In 2013, a global coalition of investors Climate Initiative (OGCI) to “catalyze representing $3.5 trillion in assets raised collective action by those most committed the stakes. Convinced of the growing global to climate change action and to advance consensus for action on climate change and technological solutions through collaborative informed by the work of academics and programs.” The group’s priorities include analysts, these investors joined with Ceres, creating a shared roadmap for reducing the Institutional Investors Group on Climate emissions in line with a 2 degrees C target, Change and the Carbon Tracker Initiative including controls on methane leakage from to outline the concept of “Carbon Asset oil and gas production, and conducting Risk” and set forth steps that fossil fuel research and development (R&D) on carbon companies should take to assess, disclose capture, use and storage. The group recently and mitigate vulnerabilities. Investors initially announced a commitment to create a ~$1B sent letters to 45 of the world’s largest fossil joint fund for R&D on carbon capture and fuel companies and have since broadened storage and energy efficiency. and deepened their engagements with companies and expanded their dialogues A FRAMEWORK FOR 2 DEGREES SCENARIO ANALYSIS | 3 In 2015, buoyed by the success of shareholder resolutions in Europe that included, among other things, a request for scenario analysis consistent with achieving 2 degrees, investors formed a transatlantic partnership to file 2 degree scenario resolutions at nine U.S. companies including ExxonMobil, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy, Anadarko, Noble Energy, First Energy, AES, and Southern. While climate risk shareholder resolutions generally averaged 20% support in the U.S., this set of resolutions achieved an average of 38% with high votes of 49% at Occidental and 42% at Anadarko and AES. Investors with over $10 trillion in assets under management publicly declared their support for the resolution at ExxonMobil leading to the highest shareholder support for a climate risk resolution ever achieved there, 38%. Although the fossil fuel industry is familiar with forecasting and scenario analysis, many companies have voiced uncertainty over how to approach conducting a 2 degrees scenario analysis. Investors have also identified a need for clear guidance that will assist them in assessing which of their portfolio companies are taking this key strategic challenge seriously. This paper proposes the basis for 2 Degrees Scenario Analysis, the Key Components for a 2 Degrees Scenario Analysis Framework, examples of best practices to date, the basics for meaningful climate disclosures, and key questions for investors to ask when engaging with companies on the analysis. The heart of this work begins with the Key Components For a 2 Degrees Framework, set forth on the next page. 4 | WWW.CERES.ORG KEY COMPONENTS FOR A 2 DEGREES FRAMEWORK A meaningful 2 degrees scenario analysis will contain five key components as represented below: 1. ESTABLISH CLEAR PARAMETERS Time scale Scope Drivers/Influences 2. ALIGN WITH 2 DEGREES Compare CO2 levels