AREA BRIEFS

OCT 2020

An Abridgement of Latest Strategic Developments

1-15 OCTOBER 2020

Strategic Studies Institute Islamabad

About the Area Briefs

SSII's Area Briefs are orderly & structured fortnight updates on international politics and strategic issues. Précis notes, divided under various headers, aims at keeping tabs on nearly all evolving issues related to traditional and non- traditional security. The rundown on events allows decision/ policy makers, advisors, researchers and students to stay cognizant of international & regional happenings, and helps in chalking out policies based on informed analysis.

About SSII

SSII is an independent think tank conducting in-depth research and analysis on issues related to foreign and defence policy. The purpose behind the creation of the SSII

was to establish a dedicated academic and research institution for conducting research and trainings on important issues related to Pakistan’s security. SSII aim to put knowledge to practice by providing an alternate narrative in critical areas of Strategic Studies, especially

Arms Control and Disarmament.

CONTENTS

… 2 Americas……………………………………………………………………​ 6 Arms Control and Disarmament……………………………………………​ China and East Asia…………………………………………………………. 13 19 Europe…………………………………………………………………………​ Global Terrorism…………………………………………………………… 26 Middle East & West Asia…………………………………………………… 29 .... 39 South Asia (I)………………………………………………………………​ South Asia (II)……………………………………………………………….. 47 United Nations……………………………………………………………….. 53

AMERICAS

Domestic ● On October 7, during the Vice-Presidential debate, Vice President Mike Pence and Democratic challenger Kamala Harris argued over the Trump Administration’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the debate started, Democratic challenger Harris immediately criticised Trump’s record on the pandemic that has resulted in the deaths of 210,000 Americans and severely damaged the economy. She stated: “The American people have witnessed what is the greatest failure of any presidential administration in the history of our country”. In response, Pence blamed China for the pandemic and appreciated the US Administration’s efforts to battle the disease, including President Donald Trump’s decision in January 2020 to restrict travel from the pandemic’s epicentre in China. He stated: “I want the American people to know that from the very first day, President Donald Trump has put the health of America first. China is to blame for the COVID, and President Trump is not happy about it”. The two candidates also debated on the issue of racism in the country, as well as on the economy and tax policy.

International ● On October 14, US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, met with the Foreign Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, in connection with the launch of the US-Saudi Strategic Dialogue in Washington, D.C. According to a statement issued by the US Department of State, Secretary Pompeo and Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan discussed the “importance of the bilateral relationship in maintaining regional stability through extensive security, economic, and people-to-people partnerships”. The statement noted that the strategic dialogue reaffirmed bilateral commitments to counter Iran’s threats to regional security and prosperity, seek a political solution to end the conflict in Yemen, and enhance maritime and border security. According to media reports, Pompeo also encouraged Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel. On September 15, 2020, Bahrain, which tightly coordinates its foreign policy with Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, signed the so-called Abraham Accords with Israel at the White House. During his meeting with Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Pompeo emphasised that the agreement “contributed greatly to our shared goals for regional peace and security”. He also stated: “They reflect a changing dynamic in the region, one in which countries rightly recognise the need for regional cooperation to counter Iranian influence and generate prosperity”. Pompeo added: “We hope

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Saudi Arabia will consider normalising its relationships as well. We want to thank them for the assistance they’ve had in the success of the Abraham Accords so far”. During their meeting, Pompeo recognised Saudi Arabia’s progress towards transforming its economy under the Vision 2030 plan while emphasising the importance of continued human rights reform and strengthening of civil society. Delegates concluded the dialogue by agreeing to advance economic and security objectives through working groups on defence, economics and energy cooperation, and culture and educational exchanges.

● On October 9, a US court sentenced a Singaporean academic, who recruited US officials to provide classified political and defence information to China, to 14 months in prison. Working with Chinese intelligence since 2015, Jun Wei Yeo, also called Dickson Yeo, set up a political consultancy in Washington which he used to identify Americans with high-level security clearances that he sought to pay in exchange for classified information. He was arrested at an airport in November 2019 and pleaded guilty in July 2020 to one count of operating illegally as a foreign agent. According to his indictment, Yeo was a PhD student at the National University of Singapore, and was directed by Chinese intelligence to open up a fake consultancy in the US and offer jobs. He received more than 400 resumes, 90 % of which were from US Military or Government personnel with security clearances. He used these and the networking functions of LinkedIn to track down possible targets, focusing on persons with top security clearances. Yeo recruited a number of people to work with him, targeting those who admitted to financial difficulties. They included a civilian working on the Air Force’s F-35B stealth fighter-bomber project, a Pentagon army officer with Afghanistan experience, and a State Department official, all of whom were paid as much as $2,000 for writing reports for Yeo. According to Prosecutors, Yeo never got as far as collecting highly classified information, but that was his intent. ● On October 8, the Trump Administration blacklisted the entirety of Iran’s financial sector. The US Department of the Treasury hit 18 Iranian banks that had thus far escaped the re-imposed US sanctions, and subjected foreign, non-Iranian financial institutions to penalties for doing business with them. Thus, the sanctions effectively cut them off from the international financial system. While announcing the sanctions, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated: “Today’s action to identify the financial sector and sanction eighteen major Iranian banks reflects our commitment to stop illicit access to US dollars. Our sanctions programmes will continue until Iran stops its support of terrorist activities and ends its nuclear programmes”. He added: “Today’s actions will continue to allow for humanitarian transactions to support the Iranian people”. According to the Treasury, the action targets sixteen Iranian banks for their role in the country’s financial sector; one bank for being owned or controlled by another

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sanctioned Iranian bank; and one military affiliated bank. According to analysts, the move will worsen US’ tensions with European nations and others over Iran. ● On October 6, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo attended a meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) or “the Quad” in Tokyo and spoke with his Japanese, Indian and Australian counter parts. He urged the allies to unite against China’s “exploitation, corruption and coercion” in the region. The Quad group held the meeting to present a united front against Beijing. While referring to the “pandemic that came from Wuhan”, Pompeo stated that it was “made infinitely worse by the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) cover-up”. Citing China’s actions in the Himalayas, Taiwan Strait and elsewhere, Pompeo warned it was “more critical now than ever that we collaborate to protect our people and partners from the CCP’s exploitation, corruption and coercion”. According to analysts, Pompeo is an outspoken critic of China, with respect to several issues, including security, human rights and the pandemic, which the Trump Administration has sought to blame squarely on Beijing ahead of the US Presidential Election. He is the first senior American official to visit Japan since Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga took office in September 2020. According to Suga, he was confident Tokyo and Washington were on the same page. The Quad grouping was initiated as a dialogue in 2007 by then Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, with the support of Vice President Dick Cheney of the US, Prime Minister John Howard of Australia and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India. The QSD was promoted as a way for the region’s major democracies to step up cooperation in the face of military and other threats posed by China. ● On October 2, the US imposed sanctions on eight Belarusian officials, accusing them of involvement in rigging President Alexander Lukashenko’s re-election victory in August 2020. While announcing the sanctions, US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, stated: “The US and our international partners stand united in imposing costs on those who have undermined Belarusian democracy for years”. The US sanctions also targeted Belarusian Interior Minister, Yuri Karaev, as well as his deputy. Those under sanctions are subject to asset freezes and a ban against Americans doing business with them. Earlier, the European Union also announced sanctions on 40 people, including the Interior Minister and the Head of the Election Commission. Lukashenko is trying to contain nearly two months of street protests that pose the biggest challenge to his 26-year rule. More than 13,000 people have been arrested and major opposition figures have been jailed or exiled. The crisis has pushed Belarus back towards its traditional ally, Russia, which has supported Lukashenko’s Government with loans and has also offered military support. Moscow considers Belarus a strategic buffer against the EU and NATO.

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● On October 1, US Secretary of Defence, Mark Esper, visited Algeria and held talks with President Abdelmadjid Tebboune regarding the crisis in Libya and the troubled Sahel region to the south of the Sahara. According to a statement issued by the Pentagon, during the meeting, Esper voiced support for expanding military relations with Algeria. The Pentagon stated: “The two leaders discussed security throughout North Africa and the Sahel and ways to advance our strategic military and diplomatic partnership”. Esper’s visit is the first by a US Defence Secretary to Algeria since Donald Rumsfeld visited the country in 2006. According to analysts, both countries are alarmed by the threat posed by militant groups in North Africa and the Sahel, and Algeria is considering a more active military approach against them, outside its own borders. ● On September 30, US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, announced 17 new sanctions against the Syrian regime under the ‘Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019’. While accusing Bashar al Assad’s regime of dropping thousands of bombs on schools, hospitals and markets across Syria, Pompeo stated: “Today, the US is announcing 17 Syria sanctions designations as part of the Administration’s continuing campaign to achieve the goals of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019 and hold Assad and his enablers accountable for their crimes, including the killings at Armanaz and in countless other Syrian communities”. According to media reports, the sanctions target the current Head of the Syrian General Intelligence Directorate, Husam Muhammad Louka; the Head of the Central Bank of Syria, Hazem Younes Kafroul; members of the Syrian Army; and some families. The statement from Pompeo noted: “We are designating Nasreen Ibrahim and Rana Ibrahim, the adult sisters of Assad financier Yasser Ibrahim, pursuant to section 2(a)(ii) of E.O. 13894. The Ibrahim family, led by Yasser Ibrahim, acts as a front for Bashar al-Assad and his wife Asma al Akhras. While millions of Syrians face hunger, the Ibrahims are on a spending spree to expand Assad’s and Akhras’s personal stranglehold on the Syrian economy”. Secretary Pompeo noted: “Administration’s designations of senior Government of Syria officials, military commanders, and corrupt business leaders will not cease until the Assad regime and its enablers take irreversible steps to end their campaign of violence against the Syrian people and genuinely implement UN Security Council Resolution 2254”. ---Muhammad Shoaib

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ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT

● On October 13, Russia dismissed the assertion by US President Donald Trump’s Administration that the US and Russia reached “an agreement in principle” on extension of the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, also known as the New START.

● On October 5, US and Russian representatives met in Helsinki, Finland, and held talks over arms control initiatives.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed as “unscrupulous” assertions by Donald Trump’s Special Representative for Arms Control, Marshall Billingslea, that Washington and Moscow had reached “an agreement in principle” to extend the New START, signed between the US and Russia on April 8, 2010, in Prague, which entered into force on February 5, 2011. The New START is set to expire in February 2021, unless it is extended or replaced by a similar treaty.

Sergey Lavrov’s comment came in response to Marshall Billingslea’s October 13, 2020 statement, noting that the US was willing to extend the New START for some period of time provided that Russia, in return, agree to a limitation. Billingslea asserted that he believed “that there is an agreement in principle at the highest levels of two governments”. Meanwhile, on October 9, 2020, another US administration official noted that the US and Russia agreed in principle to extend the New START. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, had even asserted that the two sides finalised the agreement, while the negotiators had to work on details of the agreement, including compliance and verification issues.

However, Sergey Lavrov, on October 13, 2020, rejected the assertions. Lavrov stated: “No. I personally do not see such prospects. My colleagues who are working in an interagency format and holding meetings with the American delegation do not see such prospects either, although we’ll never declare any intention to slam the door and terminate all contacts”. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Ryabkov, also rejected Billingslea’s claims. Ryabkov stressed that Moscow will not agree to any extension of New START before the November 3, 2020 US election. Ryabkov stated: “If the Americans need to report to their superiors something about which they allegedly agreed with the Russian Federation before their elections, they will not get it”.

Earlier, on October 5, 2020, US and Russian representatives held talks over arms control initiatives in Helsinki. Marshall Billingslea and Sergey Ryabkov represented the US and Russian delegations respectively. Billingslea noted that consultations on nuclear arms control led to “important progress”. The Russia Foreign Ministry also stated: “The sides exchanged views on

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the current state and further prospects for bilateral cooperation in the area of arms control”. The Ministry also noted that the two representatives discussed the prospects of cooperation between the two countries in the field of arms control, primarily working on extension of the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START), scheduled to expire in February 2021.

This was the third meeting between Ryabkov and Billingslea since June 2020. The first round of negotiations were held on June 22, 2020. At the end of July 2020, the two sides held additional consultations in the format of meetings of three working groups: on space security, on doctrines and potentials, and on transparency and verification. Previously, the two sides also held negotiations on strategic stability in Vienna on 17 and 18 August, 2020.

Regarding the extension of the New START, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted, on October 5, 2020, that the US-proposed conditions for extension of the New START were unilateral, and did not hold Russia’s interests into account. Sergey Lavrov stated: “Unfortunately, this trend is holding rather firm. The US quit UNESCO, the UN Human Rights Council and withdrew from almost all treaties. It is the last strategic offensive arms agreement that will die now because the conditions it put forward are completely unilateral and take into account neither our interests nor experience of many decades when arms control was carried out to universal satisfaction and was welcomed by all countries in the world”.

● On October 11, Kazem Gharibabadi, Iranian Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the Vienna-based International Organisations, criticised remarks of the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, regarding Iran’s nuclear programme.

In an interview with Austrian paper Die Presse on October 11, 2020, Rafael Grossi claimed that Iran did not have enough enriched uranium to make one nuclear weapon. Grossi stated: “The Iranians continue to enrich uranium, and to a much higher degree than they have committed themselves to. And this amount is growing by the month”. In response to a question on Iran’s “breakout” time, the DG IAEA stated: “In the IAEA we do not talk about breakout time. We look at the significant quantity, the minimum amount of enriched uranium or plutonium needed to make an atomic bomb. Iran does not have this significant quantity at the moment.” The “breakout” time is understood as timeframe estimated to produce enough weapons-grade enriched uranium fuel for a single nuclear weapon.

In response to the DG IAEA’s remarks, Kazem Gharibabadi stated: “Drawing self-made criteria such as ‘breakout’ and ‘significant quantity’ for countries which are enriching uranium under the IAEA’s surveillance is non-relevant and has no status in the IAEA legal documents”. Gharibabadi emphasised that the IAEA officials should not measure the Iranian nuclear activities under the IAEA Safeguards in the manner that the DG IAEA spoke of. Iran is a State

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Party to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. Iran has also claimed that it has never sought, and will never seek, to build nuclear weapons. This decision is based on a fatwa (religious decree) issued by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The fatwa prohibits the production, possession and stockpiling of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.

● On October 7, Russia successfully test-fired the Tsirkon hypersonic missile against a sea target.

Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia, General Valery Gerasimov, stated that Russia test-fired the Tsirkon hypersonic missile from the Northern Fleet’s frigate Admiral Gorshkov against a sea target located in the Barents Sea. General Gerasimov stated: “The missile flew to a range of 450 km, climbing to a maximum altitude of 28 kilometres. The flight lasted four and a half minutes. The missile gained a hypersonic speed of over Mach 8”. He emphasised that the missile accurately hit its target and met all the test objectives. After several trials, Russia will induct the missile for service on Russian Navy submarines and surface ships.

With a strike-range of 1000 kilometres, the Tsirkon missile is capable of travelling up to a speed of around Mach 9. The missile is also capable of targeting both naval and ground targets. Russia conducted the first test-launch of the missile in 2015. Moscow has been working on the development of the missile since 2011.

● On October 6, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) confirmed the presence of chemical agents from the banned Novichok group in samples taken from Russian opposition leader, Alexey Navalny.

The OPCW presented Germany a report to provide requested technical assistance regarding the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, on August 20, 2020. The OPCW stated: “The results of the analysis by the OPCW designated laboratories of biomedical samples collected by the OPCW team and shared with the Federal Republic of Germany confirm that the biomarkers of the cholinesterase inhibitor found in Navalny’s blood and urine samples have similar structural characteristics as the toxic chemicals belonging to schedules 1.A.14 and 1.A.15 that were added to the Annex on Chemicals to the Convention during the Twenty-Fourth Session of the Conference of the States Parties in November 2019”. The OPCW updated the list of Schedule 1 chemicals banned under the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) by including the advanced nerve agents known as Novichok on November 28, 2019. The former Soviet Union developed Novichok during the Cold War years, prior to the entry into force of the CWC in 1997.

According to the OPCW, Germany requested, in August 2020, technical assistance from the OPCW Technical Secretariat. Article VIII, paragraph 38(e) of the CWC provides: “Technical Secretariat shall provide technical assistance and technical evaluation to States Parties in the

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implementation of the provisions of the Convention, including the evaluation of scheduled and unscheduled chemicals”.

Earlier on October 5, 2020, the OPCW also confirmed Russia’s request to the Organisation to consider dispatching experts from the Technical Secretariat to Russia, in order to cooperate with Russian experts regarding the poisoning of Navalny. The OPCW had received the request from Moscow on October 1, 2020. In response, on October 2, 2020, OPCW Director-General Fernando Arias noted that he assured Russia that the Technical Secretariat was ready to provide the requested expertise and that a team of experts could be deployed on short notice. Meanwhile, Arias also sought clarification from Russia “on the type of expertise contemplated under the CWC and relevant OPCW policy-making organ decisions”.

In a related development on October 6, 2020, Russia accused the OPCW of becoming the West’s tool of pressure against Moscow. Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, stated: “The OPCW Technical Secretariat is turning more and more into the West’s tool of information and political pressure against undesirable states”. Nebenzya added: “This conclusion increases its involvement in anti-Russian campaigns: we saw this earlier in the case with the Skripals incident”. In March 2018, the UK accessed Russia of allegedly attacking former Russian intelligence services officer Sergei Skripal, and his daughter Yulia Skripal, with the Novichok nerve agent in the British city of Salisbury. In 2018, the OPCW confirmed that Novichok was used in the attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal and his daughter. However, Russia had rejected the UK’s accusations.

On October 7, 2020, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that Russia was not working on developing or upgrading any chemical weapons. Regarding alleged involvement of Russia in poisoning Navalny with Novichok, Peskov stated: “It cannot be carried out owing to the fact that Russia is a member of the corresponding Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons”.

● On October 12, India’s test-launch of its indigenously developed Nirbhay subsonic cruise missile failed owing to technical issues.

● On October 9, India successfully conducted the maiden test-launch of its anti-radiation missile, called Rudram 1.

● On October 5, India successfully test-launched its indigenously developed new supersonic anti-submarine missile, i.e. the Supersonic Missile Assisted Release of Torpedo (SMART).

● On October 3, India successfully test-launched its indigenously developed land-based hypersonic Shaurya missile.

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● On October 1, India successfully test-fired its laser-guided anti-tank guided missile (ATGM).

● According to Times of India on October 1, India successfully test-launched the extended ​ ​ range version of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile on September 30, 2020.

In its statement, India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) stated: “During the flight test of Nirbhay sub-sonic cruise missile, it developed a snag. The details of the snag are being ascertained”. The DRDO noted the test failed within 8 minutes of the launch due to technical issues in the engine. However, the DRDO did not provide further details. With a strike-range of 1000 kilometres, the missile is capable of carrying up to 300 kilograms of conventional and nuclear warheads.

In a related development, on October 9, 2020, India successfully test-fired its indigenously developed air-launched anti-radiation missile Rudram 1. The DRDO test-fired the missile from Su-30 MKI fighter aircraft against a radiation target. According to the DRDO, the Rudram is the first indigenous anti-radiation missile of India and has the capability of varying ranges based on launch conditions. Currently, India is using Russian-origin Kh-31 R anti-radiation missiles.

On October 5, 2020, the DRDO test-fired the SMART weapons system from Wheeler Island, off the coast of Odisha. In its statement, the Indian Ministry of Defence stated: “All the mission objectives including missile flight up-to the range and altitude, separation of the nose cone, release of Torpedo and deployment of Velocity Reduction Mechanism (VRM) have been met perfectly”. According to the DRDO, “SMART is a missile assisted release of lightweight Anti-Submarine Torpedo System for Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) operations far beyond Torpedo range. This launch and demonstration is significant in establishing Anti-Submarine warfare capabilities”. It implies that the new supersonic anti-submarine missile would carry a torpedo as its warhead. Dr Satheesh Reddy, Chairman DRDO, noted that SMART is a game changer vis-à-vis technology demonstration in Anti-Submarine Warfare. The DRDO did not provide further details on the range of the missile.

In a related development, on October 3, 2020, India successfully test-launched its indigenously developed land-based hypersonic Shaurya missile. According to the DRDO, “the missile blasted off from a canister strapped to the ground launcher from launch complex 4 of the Integrated Test Range (ITR) in the APJ Abdul Kalam Island”. With a strike-range between 750 to 1000 kilometres, the missile is capable of travelling with a speed of Mach 7. The Shaurya is a surface-to-surface nuclear-capable missile.

Meanwhile, on October 1, India successfully test-fired its indigenously developed Laser Guided Anti Tank Guided Missile (ATGM). The DRDO test-fired the ATGM from MBT Arjun at KK ranges (ACC&S) Ahmednagar in continuation of successful trial conducted on September 22,

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2020. The Indian Ministry of Defence stated: “The ATGM employs a tandem HEAT warhead to defeat Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA) protected armoured vehicles in ranges from 1.5 to 5 km. It has been developed with multiple-platform launch capability and is currently undergoing technical evaluation trials from 120 mm rifled gun of MBT Arjun”.

Earlier, on September 30, 2020, India also test-fired the extended range version of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile. The Indian Ministry of Defence noted that the test successfully achieved its objectives, and the missile travelled with a speed of Mach 2.8. The Ministry stated: “Today’s successful launch has paved the way for the serial production of the indigenous booster and other indigenous components of the powerful BrahMos Weapon System realising Atmanirbhar Bharat pledge”. The DRDO test-launched the missile from a land-based mobile launcher. India has already inducted the BrahMos missile having a strike-range of 290 kilometres. However, the extended range version of the missile has a strike-range of more than 400 kilometres.

● On October 2, nearly 77 Heads of State and Ministers addressed the United Nations High Level Meeting on the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, held at the UN General Assembly.

The UNGA High Level Meeting commemorated the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, celebrated annually since 2013. In his opening remarks, Volkan Bozkir, President of the 75th Session of the UNGA, noted that the UNGA was clearly committed to nuclear disarmament from its inception; indicating that the very first resolution passed in 1946 aimed to achieve global nuclear disarmament. Bozkir warned that nuclear weapons continued to pose a grave threat to international peace and security, and that there was no alternative to ensure global security other than total elimination of these weapons. While noting that the efforts taken to support the goals of disarmament are under significant strain with rising global tensions, the President of the UNGA stated: “Amid such challenges to the non-proliferation architecture, we must ensure efforts are focused on returning to the common goal of a world free of nuclear weapons through practical realisable goals and commensurate actions”.

Following the opening remarks, UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, addressed the meeting. Guterres deemed the elimination of nuclear weapons vital to the “survival of life on this planet”. Regarding the growing mistrust and tension between Nuclear Weapon States (NWS), and programmes that modernise arsenals for faster, stealthier and more accurate weapons, the UN Secretary-General stated: “The opportunity cost of spending money on such ill-conceived upgrades is simply staggering”. While reminding the participants of the plenary meeting that “the world continues to live in the shadow of nuclear catastrophe”, Guterres stated: “For the sake of all of our security, the world must return to a common path towards nuclear disarmament”. He also emphasised that it was “imperative” for Russia and the United States to extend, “without delay”, the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for the

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maximum duration of five years. The New START is set to expire in February 2021, unless extended or replaced by a new agreement. He said that the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) remained the cornerstone of the nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime; and noted that he was looking forward to early entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).

Meanwhile, representatives of nearly 77 States also addressed the High Level Meeting. The representatives delivered their statements via pre-recorded video to call for a nuclear-weapon-free world. The representatives called on the international community for further action on a number of fronts, including nuclear risk reduction; cuts in military budgets; support for existing treaties, such as the NPT, Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the TPNW; support for existing nuclear-weapon-free-zones; establishment of additional nuclear-weapon-free-zones, especially one in the Middle East; and commitment to the total elimination of nuclear weapons by the 100th anniversary of the UN.

--- Moiz Khan

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CHINA, EAST ASIA & PACIFIC

China

● On October 13, Chinese President Xi Jinping inspected the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy Marine Corps in Chaozhou and emphasised that the Marine Corps should focus on war preparedness and combat capabilities.

During his visit, Xi stressed that the PLA Navy Marine Corps shoulders the important duties of safeguarding China’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and maritime interests. Xi urged the Marine Corps to maintain a high level of readiness, adding that the force should stick to combat-oriented training and strengthen mission-oriented training tailored to the specific needs and force-on-force training. According to observers, Xi’s visit sent a signal that China will speed up its preparation for any potential military conflict in the water areas and islands in regions like the Taiwan Straits, and South and East China Seas.

● On October 13, China threatened to retaliate over US arms sales to Taiwan, noting that the advanced weapons being supplied by the US pose a serious risk to China’s security.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasised that it would react in a “legitimate and necessary” way to three deals that the White House has sent to the US Congress for approval. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Zhao Lijian, stated: “The United States should immediately cancel the planned weapon sales to Taiwan, stop any arms deals and cut off their military ties”. In July ​ ​ 2020, China had also stated that it would impose sanctions on Lockheed Martin for its role in a US$620 million deal to upgrade Taiwan’s Patriot surface-to-air missiles system. In a related development, on October 13, 2020, the PLA Daily reported that the Chinese PLA launched the live-fire test from the Bohai Bay area “recently”. The report did not specify which missile was fired but according to observers, the drill was aimed at sending a message to Taiwan.

● On October 12, China and Cambodia signed a free trade agreement (FTA) in Phnom Penh. The signing ceremony was attended by the Cambodian Prime Minister, Hun Sen, and visiting Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister, Wang Yi.

The free trade agreement was signed during Wang’s two-day visit to Cambodia. During the signing ceremony, Hun Sen emphasised the economic and political significance of the agreement adding that it would strengthen ties between China and Cambodia. For his part, Wang assured that the FTA will “promote socio-economic development in the Southeast Asian nation”, adding that China is willing to work with Cambodia to discuss how to deal with various challenges in the post-pandemic era.

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In a separate meeting, Wang and Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Prak Sokhonn, agreed to further improve cooperation between the two countries. Wang expressed China’s willingness to work with Cambodia to ensure the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2020, conduct cooperation in fields of the blue economy and data security, and help strengthen China-ASEAN relations.

● On October 12, senior Indian and Chinese military commanders held fresh talks in the Chushul area, aimed at bringing to an end the stand-off along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Ladakh region.

India and China have held several rounds of talks between military, diplomatic and political officials, including negotiations between the Foreign Ministers and the Defence Ministers in September 2020. While the stand-off along the LAC has persisted, the talks seem to have deescalated the situation as no new military aggression has been reported for a month now. The standoff between China and India began in May 2020 and escalated into a deadly clash between the two sides in which twenty Indian soldiers were killed.

● On October 10, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen called for “meaningful dialogue” with mainland China provided that the latter was willing to “resolve antagonisms and improve cross-strait relations”.

During her address for the Double Tenth holiday, which marks the foundation of the Republic of China, Tsai Ing-wen stated that “as long as the Beijing authorities are willing to resolve antagonisms and improve cross-strait relations”, Taiwan is willing to work with China to facilitate “meaningful dialogue”. Tsai emphasised Taiwan’s commitment to upholding cross-strait stability, however, she added that “this is not something Taiwan can shoulder alone; it is the joint responsibility of both sides”. Tsai also promised to boost the island’s defences stating that “adequate preparation and reliance on the determination and strength of solid national defence capabilities is the only way to guarantee Taiwan’s security and maintain regional peace”.

● On October 9, China demanded the US cease its “provocative actions” in the South China Sea after a US warship was spotted close to the Paracel Islands.

The Southern Theatre Command of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) described the actions of the USS John S. McCain guided missile destroyer as “dangerous”. In a statement, Senior Colonel Zhang Nandong confirmed that the PLA dispatched naval and aerial forces to track the destroyer and drive it away. He accused the warship of trespassing into China’s territorial waters and urged the US to control its naval and aerial operations in the area. Zhang

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stated that the US frequently sent warships to the South China Sea to “show off its force and severely infringe upon China’s sovereignty and security interests” adding that such actions were “blatant navigation hegemony and military provocation”. Zhang emphasised that China would take all necessary measures to “safeguard its national sovereignty and security, and maintain peace and stability in the region”. Relations between China and the US have deteriorated significantly in recent years, with the two countries engaged on multiple fronts including economy, technology, and the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.

● On October 9, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying confirmed that China has officially signed an agreement to join the World Health Organization (WHO)-led COVAX facility.

In a statement, Hua stated that China has taken this step to “uphold the concept of a shared community of health for all” and to “honour its commitment of turning COVID-19 vaccines into a global public good”. Hua emphasised that China is taking concrete step to “ensure equitable distribution of vaccines, especially to developing countries” and assured that China will continue to work together with COVAX partners and contribute its share to the global fight against the pandemic. The COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access Facility (COVAX) is led by the WHO, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. It aims to deliver two billion doses of the vaccine around the world by the end of 2021. China is the biggest economy to back the WHO-led initiative so far.

● According to Dawn on October 7, the Chinese Embassy in India advised journalists to ​ ​ observe the “one-China” principle after Indian newspapers carried advertisements for Taiwan’s national day.

Relations between China and India have deteriorated once again as Indian newspapers placed advertisements by Taiwan’s Government to mark Taiwan’s national day on October 3, 2020. According to Reuters, China made its displeasure evident in an email sent by its embassy to journalists in India on October 7, 2020. The Chinese Embassy reminded the journalists that “regarding the so-called forthcoming ‘National Day of Taiwan’, there is only one China in the world, and the Government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legitimate government representing the whole of China”. The Embassy expressed hope that the Indian media “can stick to Indian government’s position on Taiwan question” and “not violate the ‘One China’ principle”. The statement further added that “Taiwan shall not be referred to as a ‘country (nation)’ or ‘Republic of China’ or the leader of China’s Taiwan region as ‘President’, so as not to send the wrong signals to the general public”. In response, on October 8, 2020, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu, criticised China’s advice to the Indian media and accused China of trying to impose censorship in India.

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● On October 6, China’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Zhang Jun, refuted accusations made by the US against China on issues related to Xinjiang and Hong Kong.

Addressing the general debate of the Third Committee of the UN General Assembly, Zhang rejected the US’ statements, criticised the US and other Western countries for violating human rights and called for the complete and immediate lifting of unilateral sanctions. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, about 70 states had supported China’s policies on Hong Kong and th Xinjiang at the Third Committee of the 75 ​ UN General Assembly. On October 7, 2020, Foreign ​ Ministry Spokesperson, Hua Chunying, also expressed opposition to “political manipulation on issues related to Hong Kong and Xinjiang and interference in China’s internal affairs”. She added that China was ready to work with all parties to “carry out constructive dialogue and cooperation based on the principle of equality and mutual respect”.

Earlier, on October 6, 2020, Germany led a group of 39 countries in the UN that condemned China’s policies in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and demanded “immediate, meaningful and unfettered access” to Xinjiang to probe charges of human rights violations in the region. The US, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand also signed this joint statement that expressed deep concerns about the political situation in Hong Kong as well. According to Dawn, Pakistan, in response, made a joint statement on behalf of 55 countries at the UN on October 6, 2020, declaring Hong Kong an inalienable part of China. Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Munir Akram, addressed the General Assembly’s Third Committee and noted that the enactment of China’s law on safeguarding national security in Hong Kong was a legitimate measure, which “ensures that one country, two systems go steady and enduring and that Hong Kong enjoys long-term prosperity and stability”.

● According to the South China Morning Post on October 2, Chinese Ambassador to the ​ ​ US, Cui Tiankai, noted that China-US relations are in “severe difficulties” and require ​ ​ goodwill rather than attempts to provoke confrontation.

In a speech during a ceremony to mark China’s National Day on October 1, 2020, Cui Tiankai stated that China was firmly opposed to a new cold war and expressed China’s commitment to building stable ties with the US. He emphasised that China was not seeking hegemony, nor expanding its sphere of influence, adding that China will “continue to narrow differences and resolve disputes with others through dialogue and negotiation”. Cui’s comments come as China’s relations with the US reach the lowest point in the run-up to the US presidential election on November 3, 2020. The two nations have clashed on issues including trade, technology, security, and the coronavirus pandemic.

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● According to the South China Morning Post on October 1, China and India held the 5th ​ ​ ​ round of diplomatic talks and agreed upon de-escalation of tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh.

According to China’s Foreign Ministry, officials from China and India reiterated pledges to reduce tensions and not to take actions that would escalate border clashes that first began in May 2020. A statement released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the two sides agreed to calm the situation and take steps to avoid further complications. The officials confirmed that China and India agreed to hold a round of meetings between the troop commanders in the border region soon. However, no specific timetable or details were provided. Moreover, China and India had also agreed last week not to send more troops to the border. While both China and India have maintained that they are determined to disengage their forces from the ongoing standoff in Ladakh region, there appears to be little to no progress in this regard.

Japan

● On October 6, the Prime Minister of Japan held talks with US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, in Tokyo whereby the two sides agreed to strengthen bilateral ties.

Pompeo also met with his Japanese, Australian and Indian counterparts under the ambit of the Quad meeting. During the meeting, Pompeo expressed confidence that ties between the US and Japan will further strengthen under Japanese Prime Minister Suga’s leadership. In a brief statement, Japan’s Foreign Ministry stated that during the talks with the US, “the situation in the East China Sea, the South China Sea and North Korea” were also discussed. The agenda for the Quad meeting also included economic recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chains, disinformation, infrastructure investment in the region and counterterrorism.

North Korea

● On October 10, North Korea displayed a gigantic new intercontinental ballistic missile th (ICBM) during a military parade that marked the 75 ​ anniversary of the North’s ruling ​ Workers’ Party.

North Korea’s first parade in two years comes ahead of the US Presidential Election, to be held on November 3, 2020. Nuclear negotiations between North Korea and the US have been deadlocked since the collapse of the Hanoi Summit in 2019. Analysts believe that the missile could see its first test around the time of the inauguration of the next US presidential term, as a signal to either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un delivered a speech and stated that North Korea will continue to “strengthen its military for self-defence and deterrence”.

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Thailand

● On October 15, thousands of Thai protesters marched on the Prime Minister’s office to demand his resignation.

Tensions flared in Bangkok ahead of a scheduled afternoon drive-by of a royal motorcade carrying King Maha Vajiralongkorn, when supporters of the Government arrived at the venue in huge numbers to rival the anti-government protesters. More than 15,000 police were deployed at the scene. Scuffles with the royalists broke out as anti-government protesters headed towards the Government House. At least 24 activists were arrested after rallying around the Democracy Monument. Protestors in Thailand have recently staged huge rallies, calling for Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to step down from his position. Some protesters have also demanded reforms to Thailand’s monarchy.

---Fareeha Shamim

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EUROPE

● On October 12, Greece termed Turkey’s activities related to energy exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean a threat to regional peace.

According to media reports, Greece accused Turkey of undermining efforts to ease a crisis over eastern Mediterranean drilling rights. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis stated: “This new unilateral act is a severe escalation on Turkey’s part”. The Turkish search vessel, Oruc Reis, left the port of Antalya on October 12, 2020, on an exploration mission, expected to be completed by October 22, 2020. In response to the statement by the Prime Minister of Greece, Turkey stated that Greek objections were “unacceptable”. Turkey emphasised that the search vessel was operating within Turkey’s continental shelf. The Turkish Foreign Ministry stated: “Our expectation from Greece is for it to withdraw its maximalist claims that are contrary to international law, and put an end to its exercises and military activities that increase tensions in the Aegean and the Mediterranean and to enter into a sincere dialogue with us”.

Earlier, on October 8, 2020, Turkey and Greece agreed on confidence-building measures and holding bilateral exploratory talks after weeks of tensions in a dispute over maritime rights in the Eastern Mediterranean. Greek Foreign Minister, Nikos Dendias, and Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusloglu, held a meeting on the sidelines of a conference in Slovakia. Mevlut Cavusoglu noted that Turkey would host the first round of exploratory talks with Greece. However, he noted that the meeting date was not yet finalised.

Tensions between Greece and Turkey intensified in August 2020 over offshore drilling rights in the eastern Mediterranean. Tensions grew between the two countries over energy exploration rights in the gas-rich eastern Mediterranean, which is a frequent source of disputes between Turkey and its neighbours including Greece, Cyprus and Israel. Earlier, on August 11, 2020, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias urged Ankara to “immediately” remove the Oruc Reis from Greek waters. In response, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu observed that his country would step up energy exploration in the eastern Mediterranean and would not “compromise” its rights. In September 2020, Turkey removed its vessel for maintenance and resupply, and to give “diplomacy a chance”, aimed at easing the tensions.

● On October 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that he was hopeful in continuing cooperation with the US in the field of cyber security.

During an interview with “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin” TV programme on Rossiya-1 TV channel, President Putin stated: “This is not the first time we are outlining this proposal, we hope that everyone is interested in implementing the proposals that we had made. We are not losing hope that we will be able to continue this effort with all concerned parties, including the US”. Putin

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observed that Russia was still facing accusations for its “alleged hyperactivity in the information sphere, of meddling in elections”. Terming the accusations unfounded, he indicated that his calls for cooperation on cyber security have remained unanswered by the US.

Earlier on September 25, 2020, Putin made a number of proposals for cooperation in cyber security between Russia and the US. The proposal aimed at addressing the US’ concerns and setting a comprehensive programme for practical measures for resetting relations with Russia vis-à-vis using IT technologies.

● On October 1, the EU imposed sanctions on two Russian citizens and four Russian companies involved in the construction of the railway section of the Crimean Bridge.

The EU stated: “On 23 December 2019, the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, announced the opening of a railway bridge over the Kerch Strait, which marked the implementation of the broader project of connecting the railway infrastructures of the illegally annexed Crimean Peninsula and those of Russia”. In this regard, the EU imposed sanctions on two Russian citizens and four Russian companies owing to their “role in designing, building or using the railway infrastructure linking Russia and the illegally annexed Crimean peninsula”. Under the sanctions, the individuals and companies are banned from entering the EU; and their assets in European banks, if such assets are found there, are subject to freezing. European businesses are also prohibited from doing business with listed companies. The 19-kilometer long bridge links the Taman Peninsula, Russia’s Krasnodar region, and the Kerch Peninsula of Crimea. The bridge consists of two parallel rail and car roads built together.

● On October 1, Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of the attack on his life.

In his first interview, Alexei Navalny told Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine that in his mind, “Putin was behind the attack”. Navalny stated: “I don’t have any other versions of how the crime was committed”. Earlier, on September 21, 2020, in a blog post on his website, Navalny demanded Russia return the clothes he was wearing on the day he fell ill in Siberia. He deemed his clothes key evidence in his case. He stated: “Before they allowed me to be taken to Germany, all my clothes were taken off and I was sent completely naked. Given the fact that Novichok was found on my body and that I was very likely infected via contact, my clothes are a very important piece of evidence”.

These accusations are based on indications provided by Navalny’s colleagues, on September 17, 2020, that a water bottle with a trace of the Novichok nerve agent was found in his hotel room in the Siberian city of Tomsk after he fell ill. A video posted on Navalny’s Instagram account showed members of his team searching the room he had just left in the Xander Hotel in Tomsk on August 20, 2020. According to Navalny’s associates, one of his team members, who is a

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permanent resident of the United Kingdom, took a bottle to Germany and traces of Novichok were found on it.

However, on September 18, 2020, Russia termed reports, which suggest that Navalny was poisoned with a nerve agent through a water bottle in his hotel room in Siberia, “absurd”. Kremlin Spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, stated: “The thing is that we are being told about traces of Novichok on a bottle, but specialists say that, if there were actually traces of Novichok on the bottle, at least those who touched it or were standing nearby would have been exposed”.

On August 19, 2020, Navalny’s Spokeswoman, Kira Yarmysh, remarked that the plane carrying the Russian opposition leader made an emergency landing in Omsk after he suddenly felt unwell mid-flight. According to Yarmysh, Navalny only drank tea in the morning. She claimed that he might have been poisoned. He was taken to the Charite Hospital in Berlin following a medical evacuation flight from the Siberian city of Omsk on August 22, 2020. Later, on August 24, 2020, Berlin’s Charite Hospital, which was treating Navalny, noted that his medical tests indicated that he was poisoned. The hospital management stated that Navalny was suffering from “intoxication by a substance from the group of cholinesterase inhibitors”.

Belarus Crisis

● On October 2, the EU agreed to impose sanctions on dozens of senior officials in Belarus accused of being responsible for fraud in the August 2020 Presidential Election and for their involvement in a crackdown against protesters and opposition members.

● On October 2, Belarus imposed sanctions on several EU officials.

● On October 1, Cyprus refused to approve EU sanctions on Belarus, urging the EU partners to sanction Turkey over its oil and gas drilling in the Mediterranean.

European Council President, Charles Michel, stated: “We have to decided today to implement the sanctions”. In his special written procedure issued on October 2, 2020, Michel noted that the EU imposed sanctions on about 40 Belarus officials. The EU sanctions target Belarus officials in the Interior Ministry and police and security services for a crackdown on protesters and the opposition, as well as election officials blamed for falsifying the August 9, 2020, election results. Restrictive measures include a travel ban and an asset freeze. However, Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko, is not on the current list of sanctioned individuals. The EU diplomats noted that the EU could add Alexander Lukashenko to the list at a later date, should he refuse to enter into talks with the opposition leaders. The European Council supported the democratic right of the Belarusian people to elect their President through new free and fair elections,

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without external interference, and called on the Belarusian authorities to end violence, and release all detainees and political prisoners.

On October 2, 2020, the US also imposed sanctions on eight Belarus officials citing their roles in rigging the Presidential election. Earlier on September 29, 2020, the UK and Canada imposed sanctions on several senior officials in Belarus, including Alyaksandr Lukashenka.

In response, on October 2, 2020, Belarus retaliated by sanctioning several EU officials, barring them from entering the country. The Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: “The Belarusian side is introducing a retaliatory list of sanctions from today. In accordance with the established civilized diplomatic practice, we will not publish it”.

The decision to impose sanctions was taken following several meetings between EU diplomats to overcome a stalemate created by Cyprus. Cyprus had insisted that its EU partners take action against Turkey for its energy exploration work in disputed waters off the Mediterranean island nation’s coast before it would agree to the Belarus sanctions. Following several meetings, the EU leaders agreed to support Cyprus and Greece, reassuring the countries that the EU would also sanction Turkey if it continued to drill for oil and gas in disputed areas of the Mediterranean. The EU diplomats noted that the deadlock had cost the bloc its credibility.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

● On October 10, Azerbaijan and Armenia accused each other of violating the terms of a ceasefire agreement in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.

● On October 10, Armenia and Azerbaijan concluded a ceasefire agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh after the Foreign Ministers of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan held trilateral consultations in Moscow.

According to media reports, the Russian, Azerbaijani and Armenian Foreign Ministers, namely Sergey Lavrov, Jeyhun Bayramov and Zohrab Mnatsakanyan respectively, held talks on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement for more than 10 hours. While citing a joint statement, signed by the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Sergey Lavrov stated: “A ceasefire is declared to begin on October 10, 2020, at 12:00 with the humanitarian aim of exchanging prisoners of war and other captured persons as well as to exchange bodies of victims with the facilitation of the International Committee of the Red Cross and in line with its regulations”. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan also agreed to begin practical talks with the mediation of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group representatives on peace settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh. In addition to a cessation of hostilities, the agreement also called for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to take part in the exchange

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of prisoners and other aspects of the ceasefire. Earlier, on October 8, 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a statement calling for a ceasefire with respect to the fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. According to the Kremlin, Putin proposed calling a ceasefire to exchange prisoners and collect the bodies of dead soldiers.

In a related development, on October 10, 2020, both Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of derailing the ceasefire agreement intended to end the worst outbreak of hostilities. The two countries accused each other of violating the terms of the truce with new attacks. Hours after the implementation of the truce, the Armenian military accused Azerbaijan of “shelling the area near the town of Kapan in southeastern Armenia”, killing one civilian. However, Azerbaijan’s Defence Ministry rejected the Armenian accusations as a “provocation”.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan accused Armenia of striking the Terter and Agdam regions of Azerbaijan with missiles. However, Armenia’s Defence Ministry denied any truce violations by the Armenian forces and stated, in the evening, that the truce was “largely holding” despite Azerbaijani “provocations”.

On October 11, 2020, Azerbaijan again accused Armenia of attacking its cities and villages in violation of the ceasefire agreement. The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry stated that Armenian forces shelled villages in the Aghdam, Terter, Aghjabedi and Fizuli regions of Azerbaijan. The Ministry claimed that at least nine civilians lost their lives and more than thirty others were wounded in Ganja. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev called the attack on the city “a war crime”. However, Armenia denied attacking Ganja and noted that the territory’s army was observing the ceasefire. In response, EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell urged the two sides to abide by the agreement and called on “all actors, including external parties, to refrain from any actions that may lead to further casualties”. Borrell stated: “In this respect, we note with extreme concern the reports of continued military activities, including against civilian targets, as well as civilian casualties and urge the sides to ensure full respect of the agreement on the ground”.

In a related development, on October 11, 2020, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) mission in Nagorno-Karabakh noted that it could not begin its work amid ceasefire violations by both sides of the conflict. Eteri Musaelyan, Representative of the ICRC Karabakh Office, stated: “In order for us to begin working it is necessary to wait for the observation of the ceasefire regime. On both sides of the line of contact there are constant media reports that the shelling is underway, that there are casualties. Until a complete ceasefire and safety guarantees for our staff are in place, our neutral mediation cannot come into effect”.

● On October 8, Armenia accused Azerbaijan of targeting a historic cathedral in territory controlled by ethnic-Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh amid intensified conflict.

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● On October 8, Azerbaijan accused Armenia of attacking several Azerbaijani towns and villages, resulting in civilian casualties.

● On October 5, Azerbaijan accused Armenia of targeting the former’s cities that lie far beyond the conflict zone.

According to media reports, residents of the town of Susha indicated that the Holy Savior Cathedral, also known as the Ghazanchetsots Cathedral, sustained exterior and interior damage after being hit twice within several hours. The Cathedral is part of the Armenian Apostolic Church. However, Azerbaijan’s Defence Ministry denied attacking the cathedral, stating that its army “does not target historical, cultural, especially religious buildings and monuments”.

In a related development, on October 8, 2020, Azerbaijan accused Armenia of attacking several of its villages and towns. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defence noted that Azerbaijani forces were “taking adequate counter-measures, against the attacks”. Earlier, on October 6, 2020, Azerbaijan claimed that Armenia attacked a pipeline in and around Nagorno-Karabakh region. Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor-General’s Office noted that rockets were fired at part of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline passing through the Yevlakh region. However, Armenia’s Defence Ministry rejected the accusations. The Armenian Defence Ministry stated: “Azerbaijan’s reports of Armenian troops’ attempt to strike the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline are outright lies”. The statement added: “We have repeatedly said that we do not view oil and gas infrastructure as our target”.

Meanwhile, on October 5, 2020, Azerbaijan expressed concerns over Armenia’s targeting of Azerbaijani cities. Hikmet Hajiyev, Head of Foreign Policy Affairs Department of the Presidential Administration, observed that Armenia targeted large cities Ganja and Mingachevir with missile strikes. Ganja is the country’s second-largest city, and is located roughly 100 kilometres away from Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital. Armenia’s Defence Ministry denied the claims. However, Nagorno-Karabakh’s leader, Arayik Harutyunyan, indicated that he ordered “rocket attacks to neutralise military objects”. Later, Harytyunyan ordered his forces to stop firing so as to avoid civilian casualties.

The conflict between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces escalated on September 27, 2020. According to media reports, Armenia accused Azerbaijan of carrying out early morning air and artillery attacks in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Nagorno-Karabakh is recognised internationally as part of Azerbaijan. However, it has been under the control of Yerevan-backed ethnic Armenian forces since a 1994 cease-fire brought an end to a separatist war that broke out as the Soviet Union collapsed. However, both Armenia and Azerbaijan have not recognised the Nagorno-Karabakh region as an independent republic.

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According to latest updates, both Armenia and Azerbaijan accuse each other of increasing hostilities beyond Nagorno-Karabakh and of targeting civilians. Nagorno-Karabakh’s military noted that 350 of its soldiers lost their lives since September 27, 2020. The state-run Armenian news agencies noted that 21 civilians in Armenia lost their lives in the region and 82 others were wounded. Azerbaijani authorities have not given details about military casualties. However, the country has noted that 25 civilians lost their lives and 127 were wounded. Both sides have repeatedly accused each other of targeting civilians and have reported damage to non-military infrastructure.

● On October 4, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev demanded that Armenia set a timeframe within which it would withdraw its forces from Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding Azerbaijani territories.

In his televised speech, Aliyev stated: “Azerbaijan has one condition, and that is the liberation of its territories”. He added: “Nagorno-Karabakh is the territory of Azerbaijan. We must return and we shall return”. While indicating that Azerbaijani forces were advancing to retake territories that they lost to ethnic Armenians in the 1990s, Aliyey warned that Azerbaijan would not end military action until Armenia withdraws from Nagorno-Karabakh.

--- Moiz Khan

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GLOBAL TERRORISM

● On October 15, twenty security personnel were killed in two terrorist attacks in Balochistan’s Ormara area and North Waziristan tribal district. Fourteen security officials, including seven soldiers of the Frontier Corps Balochistan and seven civilian guards employed by the Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL), were killed in an armed attack on their convoy on the Coastal Highway in the Ormara area of Gwadar district on October 15, 2020. According to a statement issued by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), an encounter took place between security forces and a large number of terrorists on the Coastal Highway when a convoy of the OGDCL staff was being escorted from Gwadar to Karachi. During the clash, substantial losses were also incurred by the terrorists. The Baloch Raji Ajoi Sangar (BRAS), a banned militant organization, claimed responsibility for the attack. In a separate incident, six soldiers, including a Pakistan Army captain, were killed when two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) struck their vehicles in North Waziristan on October 14, 2020.The ISPR confirmed that a convoy of security forces was attacked with an IED near Razmak, as a result of which five soliders and a Pakistan Army captain were killed. The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack. Recently, violence has intensified in North Waziristan and South Waziristan, resulting in the deaths of several security officials, soldiers and civilians. ● On October 14, two members of security forces were killed and seven others were injured in separate attacks on security posts in Bajaur and North Waziristan tribal districts. According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), a soldier was killed and another was injured when terrorists fired gunshots from across the Pak-Afghan border on the Pakistan Army post in Bajaur. Bajaur has witnessed numerous such attacks in the past in which both members of security forces and civilians have lost their lives. In a related development, a security official was killed while six security officials were injured when terrorists attacked a security post at Patisai Adda in Mirali tehsil. The security officials cordoned off the area and conducted a search operation after the attack. ● According to Balochistan Government Spokesperson, Liaquat Shahwani, ten people were injured in a blast at Quetta’s Samungli Road on October 14, 2020. Police stated that unknown miscreants had thrown a hand grenade at labourers working in the area. Security officials cordoned off the area after the attack. Balochistan’s Chief Minister, Jam Kamal, condemned the incident and directed the concerned authorities to submit a report on the same at the earliest.

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● On October 10, two soldiers of the Pakistan Army were killed while three were injured in an attack on a security post in Shawal valley of North Waziristan. According to security officials, terrorists attacked the post in the Manra Mendara area adjacent to South Waziristan tribal district, and fired rockets at the security post. Encounters between security forces and terrorists are frequently taking place in North Waziristan. Security forces claim to have killed several suspected terrorists in these recent encounters. ● On October 6, at least 14 people were killed in a car bomb explosion in the northern Syrian town of Al Bab. No group thus far has claimed responsibility for the attack. This is the second bomb attack in the district within days, as two civilians were killed and seven injured in an explosion at a checkpoint on October 4, 2020. ● On October 6, the opening session of the UN General Assembly’s Sixth Committee was held whereby the representatives discussed measures to eliminate international terrorism. During the session, the Secretary General’s report on “measures to eliminate international th terrorism” was presented and its work programme for the 75 ​ General Assembly session was ​ also approved. Representatives agreed that the COVID-19 pandemic has aggravated the challenges of fighting international terrorism and increased the spread of misinformation. A representative of Saudi Arabia emphasised the spread of misinformation, and hate speech during the pandemic and called for broadening the scope of sanctions to include anti-Muslim extremist groups. India’s representative highlighted how the perpetrators of terrorism have adopted emerging technologies and called for international cooperation in extradition, capacity-building, exchange of information and border controls. Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Munir Akram, noted that Pakistan has been the target of cross-border terrorism for decades and emphasised that struggles against foreign occupation have often been equated with terrorism. He called attention to the people’s struggle in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir for self-determination, and stressed that Islamophobia is the state policy of “Hitler’s Hindus” in the Indian Government. He further noted that terrorism is manifesting itself in mutated forms that are not effectively addressed. ● On October 5, at least eight people were killed and twenty eight were injured in a suicide attack targeting Rahmatullah Yarmal, the Governor of eastern Laghman province of Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s Interior Ministry Spokesman, Tareq Arian, confirmed the attack and stated that most of those wounded were civilians. The attack comes as the Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani, left for Doha to meet with Qatari officials. No group has so far claimed responsibility for the attack. In related news on October 3, 2020, at least 15 people were killed while forty people were injured in a truck bomb attack that targeted a government building in eastern Afghanistan. According to the spokesman for the Governor of Nangarhar, Attaullah Khogyani, a suicide

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bomber detonated a vehicle full of explosives at the entrance of an administrative building in the Ghani Khel district of Nangarhar province. While both the Taliban and the Islamic State (IS) group are active in the region, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack yet. ● On October 2, two terrorists were killed during an exchange of fire between security officials and militants in Datakhel, North Waziristan. According to security officials, a captain and three soldiers of the Pakistan Army were also wounded during the exchange of fire. The officials also confirmed that while two terrorists were killed, one was arrested in the Boya area near the Afghan border. ---Fareeha Shamim

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MIDDLE EAST & WEST ASIA

Iran ● On October 10, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited China and held talks with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, over a range of subjects, including the 25-year roadmap for Tehran-Beijing strategic cooperation. According to IRNA, the two delegations met in Tengchong city in China’s south-western Yunnan Province and discussed ways of expanding bilateral ties as well as key regional and international issues. Before the beginning of the talks, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Hua Chunying, stated: “We would like to work with Iran to deepen our bilateral comprehensive strategic partnership”. Iran prepared the 25-year roadmap for strategic relations with China and Zarif presented it to Chinese authorities during his visit to Beijing in early 2019. The document outlines a vision for long-term cooperation between the two countries in various sectors. The Cabinet approved the final draft of the plan in June 2020 and tasked the Foreign Minister with conducting the final rounds of negotiations with the Chinese side and making arrangements for signing the document by the two countries. The plan prepares the ground for Iran-China collaboration in key projects and infrastructural development and is an opportunity to attract investment in different economic sectors, such as industry, tourism, information technology and communications. During their talks, Wang and Zarif also reaffirmed their commitment to Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal, namely the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with world powers. Zarif congratulated China on its remarkable achievements in its COVID-19 response. Iran also commended China’s significant role in upholding the JCPOA, and emphasised working with China, Russia, the EU and other parties in the future to uphold the efficacy of the JCPOA. Iran welcomed China’s initiative to build a multilateral dialogue platform for the Gulf region, and hoped all parties would demonstrate flexibility and jointly maintain regional peace and stability.

Iraq ● On October 10, Iraq’s anti-terror Kata’ib Hezbollah group warned that all Iraqi resistance groups and factions will “use all the weapons at their disposal” against American forces in the country if Washington refuses to withdraw its forces from Iraq. In a joint statement, Iraqi resistance groups agreed upon a conditional ceasefire with American forces present in Iraq, noting that they would halt their military operations against US troops, including rocket attacks, provided the US does not persist in maintaining its presence in the

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country. The statement emphasized that the “conditional opportunity” was created “to respect the good efforts made by some national and political figures to draw up a clear and specific timetable for the implementation of the decision of the Iraqi people, Parliament, and Government on withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq”. In January 2020, following the killing of Iranian commander, Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, and his Iraqi trench mate, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, in a US airstrike, Iraqi lawmakers unanimously approved a bill, demanding the withdrawal of all American and other foreign military forces from the country. ● On October 3, Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, announced that 2,500 US troops have left the country as part of agreements reached with Washington to enable a full withdrawal of American troops. According to Kadhimi, the development is a great success and that it culminated as a result of strategic talks with the US. Al-Kadhimi had travelled to Washington on August 20, 2020 to hold talks with American officials. US President Donald Trump announced, at that time, that the two sides had agreed upon the departure of American forces from Iraq over a three-year period. Al-Kadhimi also addressed Washington’s threat of closing down its Embassy in Baghdad in response to rocket attacks that sporadically target the diplomatic mission’s compound and its vicinity. According to the Iraqi Premier, Baghdad realised Washington’s unease with the situation, but added that threatening to isolate Iraq would directly impact its economy as most its overseas deposits are held in the US.

Israel ● On October 14, Israel approved 2,166 new homes in settlements across the occupied West Bank, following an eight-month pause in settlement expansion. The approval came less than a month after the UAE and Bahrain signed agreements to normalise relations with Israel. According to the agreement, Israel pledged to halt its plans to annex areas of the West Bank. According to the NGO, Peace Now, the settlement approval signalled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rejection of Palestinian statehood and has undermined hopes of a wider Israeli-Arab peace. In its statement, released ahead of the approval, Peace Now noted: “Netanyahu is moving ahead at full steam toward solidifying the de facto annexation of the West Bank”. Jordan’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Daifalla Ali Alfayez, condemned the Israeli move and described it as a “unilateral and illegal” decision. Palestinian Presidential Spokesman, Nabil Abu Rudeina, noted that the Israeli move exploited the warming relations in the Gulf and “blind support from the Trump Administration”. He stated: “The Netanyahu Government’s settlement policy will lead the region to the brink of the abyss”.

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Jordan ● On October 12, Jordan’s King Abdullah swore in a new Government led by veteran diplomat Bisher al Khaswaneh that will seek to accelerate International Monetary Fund (IMF)-backed reforms. Khasawneh was appointed to replace Omar al Razzaz, at a time of rising discontent over worsening economic conditions and curbs on public freedoms under emergency laws to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Outgoing premier Razzaz, appointed in 2018 to calm protests over IMF austerity moves, had faced criticism for his handling of the pandemic and use of emergency laws to silence dissent. Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi and Finance Minister Mohamad Al Ississ, who oversees the country’s reform programme with the IMF, kept their posts in the new cabinet. According to analysts, the new government faces an uphill task to revive growth in an economy that is expected to shrink by around 6% in 2020 as it grapples with its worst economic crisis in many years, with unemployment and poverty aggravated by the pandemic. Khasawneh will oversee the parliamentary elections scheduled to take place on November 10, 2020. The elections will take place under an electoral law that marginalises the main Islamist opposition and independent political parties to maintain a majority of pro-government representatives.

Kuwait ● On October 6, Kuwait’s new Emir, Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, called the Kingdom’s Cabinet to carry on its duties and prepare for parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid Al Sabah tendered his government’s resignation. According to media reports, Sabah met Emir Sheikh Nawaf and, as per the country’s Constitution, “submitted his resignation and that of his government to ensure ministerial responsibilities are held by those who enjoy the Emir’s confidence”. Sheikh Nawaf, however, asked the Cabinet to carry on its duties and make preparations for the upcoming parliamentary elections. The new Emir expressed his full confidence in the current Cabinet, which was formed in December 2019.

Libya ● On October 7, during the second phase of dialogue between Libya’s rival administrations held in Morocco, the delegates signed an agreement pertaining to criteria for the selection of heads of sovereign positions in the country.

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The dialogue began in the Moroccan city of Bouznika in September 2020, and had five participants from the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli, and five participants from the House of Representatives (HoR) based in the eastern city of Tobruk. During the second dialogue, the delegations also agreed to implement Article 15 of the Sukhairat Agreement, which was signed by Libyan rivals in Morocco in 2015. The article stipulates that the House of Representatives and the GNA must “reach a consensus on the occupants of the leadership positions of the following sovereign positions: Governor of the Central Bank of Libya, President of the Audit Bureau, Head of the Administrative Control Authority, Head of the Anti-Corruption Agency, President and members of the High Commission for Elections, the President of the Supreme Court, and the Attorney General”. Idris Omran, a member of the HoR delegation, called on the international community to support the negotiation process in Bouznika. In a statement, Omran announced that the two delegations will continue their “consultative meetings in Morocco to ensure the end of the transitional phase”. ● On October 4, the Libya Peace Summit in Berlin concluded with an agreement to ensure strict enforcement of the UN arms embargo on the country’s warring sides. World leaders attending the Summit agreed to uphold a UN arms embargo against, and end military backing to, the country’s warring factions. The agreement, signed by 16 States and organisations, also set out plans for international efforts to monitor the implementation of the restrictions. While endorsing the declaration, German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, stated: “We agreed on a comprehensive plan forward. I can say that all participants worked really constructively together. We all agree that we should respect the arms embargo, and that it should be controlled more strongly than it has been in the past”. She added that the leaders who attended the Summit had agreed to continue to hold additional meetings to ensure the process continues so that “the people in Libya get their right to a peaceful life”. The head of Libya’s UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA), Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj, and Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), were both present in Berlin at the time of the Summit, but refused to sit together or meet with one another as tensions persist between the two parties. Meanwhile, United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, urged world powers to “refrain from interference” in the conflict in Libya. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also attended the talks in Berlin. German Chancellor Angela Merkel invited to the Summit leaders from 12 countries as well as the UN, the EU, the African Union and the Arab League. A joint statement by the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Vice President Josep Borrell stated: “The participants have committed themselves to refrain from any measures and further military support to the parties that would endanger truce. This is an important step forward”. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov cautiously welcomed the progress made at the

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conference as he declared the summit a “small step forward”. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described the developments as “productive”.

Palestine ● On October 12, head of the Palestinian Hamas resistance movement’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, condemned the US-brokered deals under which the UAE and Bahrain have agreed to normalise ties with Israel. He warned that history will show “no mercy” to the Arab states that betrayed fellow Palestinians. During an interview with the Middle East Eye (MEE) news portal, Ismail Haniyeh noted that the Arab countries that made peace with Israel will be losers as the occupying regime will eventually threaten them. He stated: “The Zionist project is an expansionist project. Its objective is to create a greater Israel. We don’t want to see the Emiratis or the Bahrainis or the Sudanese being used as vehicles for this project. History will show no mercy, the people will not forget, and humanitarian law will not forgive”. He further stated: “We know Israeli leaders better than them. We know how they think. We would like to tell our brothers in the UAE that they will lose as a result of those agreements because Israel’s only interest is to seek a military and economic foothold in areas close to Iran”. In September 2020, US President Donald Trump presided over the signing of the normalisation pacts between Tel Aviv, Abu Dhabi and Manama. During a ceremony at the White House, Trump noted that “five or six” other countries were close to making similar agreements with Israel, but did not name them. According to observers, Sudan and Oman could be next in line to normalise their ties with Israel.

Saudi Arabia ● On October 10, the Geneva Council for Rights and Liberties (GCRL) strongly denounced the continued detention and prosecution of Palestinian and Jordanian figures in Saudi Arabia over their suspected support for the Palestinian resistance movement. In its statement, the Council noted that the majority of these prisoners were denied visits, kept in humiliating conditions, subjected to torture during investigation, and deprived of medical care. The GCRL emphasized that inmates, who had been detained for months on charges of suspected political activities, faced unfair trials that didn’t meet international standards of fairness. The Council described the trials as “secret and without normal legal periods” and noted that the accused were denied their right to defend themselves and that they were not allowed to appoint lawyers. The GCRL also urged the UN to act urgently to stop flagrant human rights violations in Saudi Arabia, mainly arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, and trials on charges related to freedom of opinion. It also called on the international community to put an end to these violations and make sure those responsible are held accountable. The Council stated:

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“GCRL restates its call to stop these trials, release the detainees, ensure their protection, provide prompt medical treatment for the patients, as well as adequate compensation for the length of the detention to which they were subjected”. ● On October 4, Saudi authorities called upon citizens to “boycott everything Turkish” following a statement by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan where he accused some Gulf countries of pursuing policies that were destabilising the region. The Chairman of Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Ajlan Al Ajlan, stated: “The boycott of everything Turkish, whether on the level of import, investment or tourism, is the responsibility of every Saudi - trader and consumer - in response to the continued hostility of the Turkish Government against our leadership, our country and our citizens”. Earlier, during his address to the country’s Grand National Assembly, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused some Gulf States of targeting Turkey and following policies that have led to instability in the region. Erdogan also stated: “It should not be forgotten that the countries in question did not exist yesterday, and probably will not exist tomorrow; however, we will continue to keep our flag flying in this region forever, with the permission of Allah”. Relations between Saudi Arabia and Turkey have been deteriorating especially since the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi that took place in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018.

Syria

th ● On October 8, during his address to the 75 ​ session of the Second Financial and ​ Economic Committee of the UN General Assembly, Syria’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Bashar al-Ja’afari, denounced economic sanctions imposed on Syria by the US. Ja’afri called on the UN not to strictly limit its activities to the humanitarian aspect, but to extend them and include development projects. He also urged the world body to stay away from politicisation attempts and offer the necessary support that the Syrian Government needs to foster development in the country. While criticising the sanctions imposed on Syria, Ja’afri stated: “One of the greatest challenges facing Syria is the unilateral and coercive measures against Syrian people, and the UN Secretary General has called for their removal in light of COVID-19 pandemic”. The US recently imposed a round of sanctions against Syria through the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act. The US economic measures have effectively blocked imports of essential goods, impacting the Syrian people’s access to medical equipment, food, fuel, natural gas, and electricity. Ja’fari also reiterated Syria’s condemnation of the Israeli occupation of the strategic Golan Heights as well as of Palestinian territories, including East Jerusalem. ● On October 4, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stressed that Russia’s military presence in Syria is important to ensuring international order.

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During an interview to a Russian television channel, Assad stated: “The Russian military role in Syria - particularly the role of military bases - can be viewed from two perspectives; the first is fighting terrorism, which we call international terrorism. This will end one day or at least it will be weakened as a result of the continuing battles to eliminate it. The other perspective is related to the role of Russia in the world. Today, we live in an international jungle; we do not live under international law. International balance requires a Russian role: politically in international organisations, and militarily through military bases”. The remarks were given on the fifth anniversary of Russia’s military intervention in Syria that began at Damascus’ request, as Syria was overwhelmed by foreign-backed violence. Russia runs an airbase, known as Hmeimim, in the north western Syrian province of Latakia, and the Tartus naval facility on the country’s Mediterranean coast.

th ● On September 30, during his address to the 45 ​ session of the Human Rights Council on ​ the state of the human rights in Palestine and other occupied Arab lands, Syria’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Hussam Eddin Ala, called Israel to end its occupation of the Golan Heights and halt settlement activities. Ala noted that the Tel Aviv regime was making demographic changes to the fertile region and looting its resources. He criticised Israel for maintaining its grip on Golan, in defiance of UN resolutions. Ala stated: “In spite of the repeated resolutions issued by the Human Rights Council and UN bodies which call for ending the Israeli occupation of the Syrian Golan, the Israeli entity continues its illegitimate procedures to impose its laws and administration on the occupied Syrian Golan in a flagrant violation of the UN Security Council resolutions, including resolution 497 for 1981”. The Syrian diplomat further underlined the need for monitoring the Israeli violations of human rights in Golan Heights and the occupied Palestinian lands, including East Jerusalem, noting that the States supporting Tel Aviv are responsible for the continuation of the regime’s crimes. Ala emphasised that the Damascus Government denounces the Israeli crimes and human rights’ abuses in Palestine and calls for an end to the barbaric practices committed by the occupation forces against the Palestinian people. The envoy also emphasised Syria’s support for the Palestinians’ right to establish their independent state on the borders of June 4, 1967, with Jerusalem as its capital. Israel seized Golan Heights from Syria in the closing stages of its 1967 Six-Day War with Arab countries. During that war, the Israeli regime also occupied the Palestinian territories of the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip.

Turkey ● On October 7, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Doha and held talks with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar at the Sea Palace.

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● On October 7, during his visit to Kuwait, President Erdogan met with Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Nawaf Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah. During his visit to Kuwait, President Erdogan conveyed his condolences to the recently sworn-in Kuwaiti Emir Al Sabah on the passing of his predecessor, Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah. According to media sources, the officials also discussed bilateral relations and regional issues. Following his visit to Kuwait, President Erdogan arrived in Qatar and held meetings with Qatari officials. During their meeting, President Erdogan and Emir Sheikh Tamim discussed opportunities for strengthening bilateral cooperation and also exchanged views on regional and international issues. Several other Turkish officials, including Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, National Defence Minister Hulusi Akar, Youth and Sports Minister Mehmet Kasapoglu, National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) head Hakan Fidan, Communications Director Fahrettin Altun and Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin, also accompanied the president during the visit. Turkey enjoys deep-rooted friendship and fraternity with Qatar, and relations between the two countries have been rapidly improving in all fields. While bilateral visits add major momentum to relations between Turkey and Qatar, both countries also closely coordinate and cooperate on regional issues. Meanwhile, Turkey also maintains strong ties with Kuwait, owing to their common culture and history. Bilateral relations between the two countries have gained momentum in recent years through high-level visits and the conclusion of numerous agreements. ● On October 4, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Libya’s Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, who heads the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Sarraj is planning to step down this month and transfer power to a new executive authority. The two leaders accompanied by high-level officials from both sides, including Foreign, Defence, Interior and Finance Ministers as well as top advisors, held talks at the Vahdettin Mansion in Istanbul. No details of the talks were disclosed other than the two sides were planning to further strengthen bilateral relations. Turkey and Libya have previously signed a military deal alongside a maritime demarcation agreement in the Mediterranean Sea.

UAE ● On October 10, UAE’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Anwar Gargash, criticised Turkey’s military presence in Qatar, and noted that the Turkish base in the in the country destabilises the Persian Gulf region. Gargash described Turkish military presence in the Persian Gulf as “an emergency”. He stated: “It reinforces polarisation, and it does not take into account the sovereignty of states and the

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interests of the Persian Gulf countries and its people”. Turkey has been a major supporter of Qatar since June 2017, when Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and the UAE severed diplomatic and trade relations with Doha. The Saudi-led quartet accused Qatar of supporting terrorism, presented it with a list of demands and gave it an ultimatum to comply with them or face consequences. Among the demands was that Qatar shut down the Turkish military base and halt military cooperation with Ankara. Doha, however, denied terrorism charges and refused to meet the conditions laid out by the bloc, stressing that the country would not abandon its independent foreign policy. ● On October 6, during their first historic meeting, Foreign Minister of the UAE, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, held a meeting with his Israeli counterpart, Gabi Ashkenazi. Both officials visited the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin during their meeting. Accompanied by host German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, Ashkenazi stated that the visit was particularly moving for him “as a representative (of Israel), as a former general and as the son of a Holocaust survivor”. He added: “The three of us stood there silently together as we remembered the victims. And for the first time in history, a representative of an Arab state was present... Our presence together today symbolises a new era of peace, stability, prosperity and hope”. According to Ashkenazi, issues including the setting up of embassies and establishment of air links were discussed during the talks. According to observers, the visit by the Emirati Minister to the Holocaust Memorial is a highly symbolic step, marking a shift in attitudes in the Arab world towards Israel and Jews.

Yemen ● On October 14, Yemen’s Houthi movement released two American prisoners as part of a deal that also secured the return of more than 200 Yemenis stuck in Oman. Kash Patel, a Deputy Assistant to US President Donald Trump, who worked on the agreement, identified the freed US nationals as Sandra Loli, a “humanitarian worker” who was held in Yemen for three years, and Mikael Gidada, a “businessman” detained for a year. According to US National Security Advisor, Robert O’Brien, the US welcomed the release of two US citizens. He also thanked Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said as well as Saudi Arabia’s King Salman for their help in securing the release of the two citizens. Meanwhile, the Houthi movement also reported receiving 240 Yemenis from Oman as part of the prisoner swap arrangement. Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam tweeted that Yemenis returned to the capital, Sana’a, including people who had either been stranded in Oman or were casualties of the Saudi-led war who had travelled there during UN-brokered peace talks held in Sweden in 2018.

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The exchange came a day before a planned UN-brokered exchange of more than 1,000 prisoners between the Houthis and Yemen’s former Riyadh-allied government. The UN had announced, in September 2020, that the two sides agreed to exchange 1,081 conflict-related prisoners, including Saudi and Sudanese troops fighting on the side of the Saudi-led Coalition. ---Muhammad Shoaib

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SOUTH ASIA: I

Pakistan External ● On October 14, speaking at a virtual meeting of Commonwealth Foreign Ministers, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, urged the Commonwealth to launch a dialogue over sustained debt relief for developing countries for rapid, stronger and sustained economic recovery. FM Qureshi’s call follows a similar suggestion by Prime Minister Imran Khan in April 2020. PM Khan had appealed to the international community to provide developing countries urgent debt relief to help them tackle the COVID-19 challenge. Referring to the COVID-19 pandemic, Qureshi noted that it was a matter of concern that along with the pandemic, the world is witnessing a spike in intolerance, violence and racial discrimination. He argued that this trend is manifested in various forms of hate speech, xenophobia, Islamophobia and in the ascendancy of populist and supremacist ideologies. FM Qureshi stated: “The core principles on which the edifice of Commonwealth and the modern world stand today are rule of law, fundamental freedoms and multilateralism, but these principles are endangered today”. The Foreign Minister noted that while the world was pre-occupied with COVID-19, a country in South Asia was targeting specific religious and ethnic groups to foment division and hatred among communities. He stated: “It has usurped rights and freedoms of millions of people, fanned hyper-nationalism, engineered illegal demographic change in disputed territories and stoked regional tensions. We ignore its transgressions only at our own peril”. Regarding climate change, FM Qureshi noted that despite Pakistan’s limited contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, it is among those countries deemed as climate-vulnerable countries. He expressed Pakistan’s appreciation for the Commonwealth’s climate change-related initiatives, including its Climate Finance Action Hub. ● On October 13, during an interview with the Indian news portal, the Wire, Prime Minister ​ ​ Imran Khan’s Adviser on National Security and Strategic Policy Planning, Moeed Yusuf, noted that India has sent messages to Pakistan over the past year expressing a desire for dialogue. Yusuf, however, emphasised that Pakistan would not want India to use any opportunity for a dialogue merely to say to the world that all is settled and everything is agreed. According to Yusuf: “There has to be an enabling environment to talk”. He insisted that that Kashmiris must be a “third party” during these talks. The Adviser urged India to reverse its recent unilateral measures in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IOJK). He stated: “Not for my sake but for your own reason, reverse the military siege in Kashmir. Pull back from the domicile laws. And I

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say for your own sake, end the open jail. India will have to reverse this, as Kashmir implodes. It’s better, however, do it in ways more sensible”. Yusuf argued that nobody in Pakistan wants to impose a war. However, looking to future ties with India, he noted: “We must sit down like adults”. Yusuf highlighted that there are two issues between India and Pakistan: Kashmir and terror. He emphasised that Pakistan “stands for peace and we want to move forward”. According to Yusuf, Pakistan’s Prime Minister and its Army Chief desired peace with India, and singled out aggressive statements from Indian counterparts as foiling the quest. He stated: “Pakistan is the melting of all economic interests. It’s not up for choosing sides. Much has been made of CPEC and China. But if the US wants to invest, they’re welcome. If the UK wants to invest, they’re welcome too”. While noting that Pakistan is looking for peace in the region, Yusuf reiterated: “We want peace in Afghanistan for connectivity with Central Asia. Connectivity with China adds 60 billion to our economy, a huge source of employment”. The Adviser also accused India of inflicting terror on Pakistan. He claimed that in 2019, the Indian Embassy in Kabul had given $1 million to the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to help the organisation merge with four militant groups. He also noted that the handler of the 2014 terrorist attack on an army school in Peshawar was in touch with “an Indian consulate”. ● On October 12, Pakistan’s Foreign Office categorically rejected the “unwarranted and irresponsible” comments by Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, insinuating that Pakistan and China were deliberately creating border disputes with India. Earlier, Singh accused Pakistan and China of raising tensions at its northern and eastern borders “under a mission”. The Minister made this statement while he was virtually inaugurating a raft of the Border Roads Organisation (BRO) projects. He stated: “You are well aware of the conditions created on our northern and eastern borders. First, it was Pakistan, and now also by China, as if a border dispute is being created under a mission”. In response to Singh’s accusation, Pakistan’s Foreign Office Spokesperson stated: “The Indian Defence Minister’s statement demonstrates an inexcusable lack of self-awareness of RSS-BJP regime’s self-serving narrative. It is also another manifestation of the Indian Government’s incurable obsession with Pakistan”. The Spokesman noted that Pakistan also condemns the malicious Indian propaganda against the long-standing Pakistan-China friendship. He stated: “It is preposterous for a country that is compulsively expansionist and a brazen practitioner of state-terrorism to level charges against others”. The Spokesperson further stated: “Rather than jeopardising peace and stability of the region, including by perpetrating state-terrorism as a tool to advance its extremist (Hindutva) ideology and expansionist (Akhand Bharat) designs, India should seriously consider course correction by giving up its aggressive agenda and peacefully resolving disputes with neighbours”.

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● On October 11, in its First Follow-Up Report on Mutual Evaluation of Pakistan, the Asia-Pacific Group (APG) on Money Laundering retained Pakistan on its “Enhanced Follow-Up” list for meagre progress on technical recommendations of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to fight money laundering and terror financing. The report showed Pakistan improving its full compliance on 2 of the 40 FATF recommendations on the effectiveness of anti-money laundering and combating financing terror (AML/CFT) system. In the Mutual Evaluation Report, published in October 2019, Pakistan was compliant on one, non-compliant on four, partially compliant on twenty-six and largely compliant on nine recommendations. The only change over the last one year has been graduation on one partially compliant recommendation to compliant status. Pakistan had requested for re-ratings on three areas declared partially compliant by the APG in its last report. The request was accepted on one count and rejected on two due to “insufficient” progress to the satisfaction of international experts. Based on this progress, Recommendation-29 has been rerated to “compliant”. This improvement is based on the amended Income Tax Ordinance 2001 (section 216) which now allows Financial Monitoring Unit (FMU) to have access to tax records and information maintained by Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). Also, the provincial counterterrorism departments (CTD) have been designated as investigation and prosecution agencies under AML Act. This would allow the FMU to disseminate information to the CTD without a court order. In its conclusion, the report noted: “Pakistan will remain in enhanced (expedited) follow-up, and will continue to report back to the APG on progress to strengthen its implementation of AML/CFT measures”. While the APG report has come only a couple weeks before FATF’s virtual review meeting, scheduled to be held from October 21 to 23, 2020, it has no immediate bearing on the upcoming assessment of Pakistan, i.e. whether Pakistan should remain on the grey list or not.

● On October 11, Foreign Office Spokesperson, Zahid Hafeez Chaudhri, strongly ​ ​ condemned unabated Indian state-terrorism and extrajudicial killing of innocent Kashmiris in fake encounters and so-called ‘cordon and search operations’ in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IOJK). According to Chaudhri, over 300 Kashmiris, including women and children, have been martyred by the Indian occupation forces during the last one year. The spokesperson noted that in Kulgam and Pulwama districts of Occupied Kashmir, four more Kashmiris were martyred only a day back, while a 14-year-old boy was seriously injured in an illegal and inhumane military crackdown. He stated that India must realise that the use of brutal force against the Kashmiri people, including through extrajudicial killings, custodial torture and deaths, forced disappearances, incarceration of Kashmiri leadership and youth, use of pellet guns, destruction of houses to inflict collective punishment on the Kashmiri communities, and other methods of subjugation had failed in the past and would not succeed in the future.

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According to the FO spokesman, the indigenous resistance movement of the Kashmiris for their inalienable right to self-determination, as enshrined in the relevant UN Security Council Resolutions, would only become stronger in the face of Indian state-terrorism. He further stated: “Pakistan calls upon the international community, including the UN, human rights organisations and international media, to take full cognisance of the consistently aggravating situation in occupied Kashmir and hold India accountable for egregious human rights violations and war crimes” in IOJK. Chaudhri reminded the world community that it was their responsibility to work for peaceful resolution of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute in accordance with the relevant UNSC resolutions and wishes of the Kashmiri people for durable peace and stability in the region. ● On October 6, Pakistan made a joint statement on behalf of 55 countries at the UN, declaring Hong Kong an inalienable part of China and urging foreign actors not to interfere in Beijing’s internal affairs. Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Munir Akram, stated during the session of the General Assembly’s Third Committee: “The Hong Kong special administrative region is an inalienable part of China, and Hong Kong affairs are China’s internal affairs that brook no interference by foreign forces”. Other Muslim countries that supported China’s position on Hong Kong include Iran, Iraq, Bangladesh, Algeria, Afghanistan, Egypt, Bahrain, Eritrea, Mauritania, Morocco, Palestine, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, the UAE and Yemen. Pakistan’s statement reminded UN members that non-interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states was an important principle enshrined in the Charter of the UN and the basic norm of international relations. While reading the statement on behalf of 54 other UN Member States, Ambassador Akram stated: “We support China’s implementation of ‘one country, two systems’ in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. In any country the legislative power on national security issues rests with the state”. The statement also noted that the enactment of China’s law on safeguarding national security in Hong Kong was a legitimate measure which “ensures that one country, two systems go steady and enduring and that Hong Kong enjoys long-term prosperity and stability”. Ambassador Akram emphasised that “legitimate rights and freedoms of Hong Kong residents can be better exercised in a safe environment”. ● On October 1, in a letter to the President of the UN Security Council, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi highlighted the threats to peace from Indian actions in Occupied Jammu & Kashmir. According to Foreign Office Spokesman, Zahid Hafeez Chaudhri, the letter to the UNSC President was “part of Pakistan’s efforts to keep the UN Security Council and the Secretary General fully apprised of the grave situation in IOJK as well as peace and security in the region”. FM Qureshi also highlighted the gross and systematic violations of human rights in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir; Delhi’s illegal measures to change the demographic

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structure of the occupied territory; and the threat to peace and security posed by India’s belligerent rhetoric and actions. Chaudhri condemned the killing of Kashmiri lawyer and activist, Babar Qadri, who was shot dead by unidentified attackers in Srinagar. Chaudhri stated that India suppresses voices that are critical of Indian illegal actions and brutalisation of Kashmiris. The spokesman called for an independent investigation into the gruesome killings of innocent Kashmiris. ● Dawn reported on October 1 that during a meeting with Iraqi Envoy, Hamid Abbas Lafta, ​ Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Pervez Khattak, offered to train personnel of the Iraqi Armed Forces at military training facilities in Pakistan. During the meeting, Minister Khattak stated: “Both countries should work closely to share their experiences and build capacities of their armed forces. Pakistan intends to enhance its defence cooperation with Iraq”. The Minister noted that Pakistan has developed training facilities and infrastructure for its Armed Forces, which are being availed by several other foreign countries, especially for training related to special services group and counterterrorism. Khattak added: “Therefore, both countries (Pakistan and Iraq) can mutually share their defence-related experiences”. He noted that in view of the importance that Pakistan attaches to its ties with Iraq, it wishes to expand cooperation in all fields of mutual interest, particularly the defence sector. He emphasised that “Pakistan strongly supports the sovereignty, political unity and territorial integrity of Iraq”.

Pakistan Internal ● On October 13, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a subdued economic growth rate for Pakistan coupled with elevated rate of inflation and rising unemployment during the current fiscal year (FY). In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2020, the IMF projected Pakistan’s growth rate at one percent; average inflation rate at 8.8 percent; current account deficit at 2.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP); and unemployment increasing from 0.6 percent to 5.1 percent during the current FY. This is in sharp contrast to targets of 2.1 percent GDP growth rate; 6.5 percent inflation; and 1.5 percent current account deficit set by the Government. Going forward, the IMF projected the economic growth rate recovering to 5 percent of GDP by 2025. According to the report, the rate of inflation would peak at 10.2 percent at the end of FY 2021. The IMF estimated an increase in the current account deficit from 1.1 percent of GDP in FY-2020 to 2.5 percent in FY-2021, with a further increase up to 2.7 percent in FY-2025. More generally, the IMF noted that the global economy was climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the “great lockdown” in April 2020. But with the COVID-19

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pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect vulnerable segments of the population. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, observers argue that the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks. ● On October 10, while speaking at the passing-out parade of cadets at the Pakistan Military Academy, Kakul, Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa observed that positive criticism must not be confused with hybrid war. During his address, the COAS stated: “Most voices that might seem loud to you, come from a place of love, patriotism and trust and therefore must be heeded. We must listen to our people and apply corrections where needed. These voices are a proof that we are alive and well as a nation, that is moving in the right direction”. Gen Bajwa noted that the enemies who plotted Pakistan’s doom and destruction were watching it with disdain. He stated: “Having failed and feeling frustrated, they have now subjected us to a 24/7 hybrid war. This war is not fought in the battlefields but in the minds. In previous wars, soldiers were taking the brunt on the frontline; in this new war, however, leadership at all levels is the target”. According to the COAS, the objective of hybrid war was to target the “sense of hope” in Pakistan and to perpetuate the perception of “nothing good can happen in Pakistan”. Describing the “strong bond with people, the Constitution, democracy and democratic values as the strength of the Armed Forces”, Gen Bajwa emphasised that this bond would be “defended in the days ahead”. ● On October 9, during a seminar organised by the Insaf Lawyers Forum (ILF), Prime Minister Imran Khan noted that that the opposition’s real issue with the military is that they remained unable to “control” the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) unlike other institutions after the Agency found out about their alleged corruption. While speaking at the seminar, PM Khan stated: “They control all the institutions whose job it is to keep checks and balances, except one. They know the ISI is aware of all their theft. They try to control it and that’s where the conflict starts”. The PM noted that the ISI knew he (Imran Khan) had never minted money and he was a true democrat. He stated: “If I too start laundering money out of the country, the ISI will find out about it before anyone else because it is the world’s top agency”. The PM added that the reason he did not have any “problems” with the army and why the military supported his Government was that he had a “clean record”. According to Khan, PMLN leader Nawaz Sharif’s real cause of discontentment with the Government was not democracy but the protection of his financial interests. He recalled that former military dictator General Pervez Musharraf promulgated the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) for the PML-N and Pakistan Peoples Party “under pressure”, but due to that NRO, Pakistan suffered an irreparable loss. He noted that the parties in opposition were again maligning the army and the judiciary to get some NRO-like relief, but

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such a move would be tantamount to ending the rule of law. He stated: “It would lead Pakistan to a total disaster”. Imran Khan noted that the opposition tried to blackmail his Government over necessary legislation related to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and demanded 35 amendments to the National Accountability Ordinance in an attempt to turn the National Accountability Bureau into a toothless institution. Referring to what he termed Nawaz Sharif’s “attacks” on the Pakistan Army, Khan stated: “If anyone is going around with India’s agenda, it is the PML-N”. He warned that if the military was weakened, Pakistan would see turbulence similar to the situation in other Muslim countries such as Libya, Syria and Yemen. Terming the opposition’s Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) an “alliance of jobless politicians”, the PM Khan noted the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) Government would allow peaceful processions by the opposition, but the law would take its course if anyone was to violate the law. ● On October 7, in its latest South Asia Economic Focus Report, the World Bank predicted the worst recession in South Asia. It forecast an increase in poverty in Pakistan over the next two years, coupled with uncertain economic recovery owing to the adverse impacts of COVID-19. According to the report, “in Pakistan, economic growth is projected to remain below potential, at 0.5% for FY21 compared to over 4% annual average in the three years to FY2019”. The economic growth is projected to remain below potential, averaging 1.3 percent for FY21 and FY22. The report noted that the projection, which is highly uncertain, is predicated on the absence of significant infection flare-ups or subsequent virus waves that would require further widespread lockdowns. Speaking ahead of the report’s launch, Hartwig Schafer, the World Bank’s Vice President for the South Asian region, stated: “The collapse of South Asian economies during COVID-19 has been more brutal than anticipated, worst of all for small businesses and informal workers who suffer sudden job losses and vanishing wages”. ● On October 6, during the Paigham-i-Pakistan Conference, organised by the Council of Islamic Ideology (CII), religious leaders belonging to all mainstream schools of thought endorsed a 20-point ‘Code of Conduct’ to promote inter-sect harmony and end sectarianism in the country. The Code highlights that only courts have the jurisdiction to issue a verdict of infidelity against any group or individual. It also states that all forms of coercion, armed action against the State, violence and anarchy in the name of enforcing Islam should be considered rebellion. Non-Muslim citizens of Pakistan have the right to practise their religion and religious rites according to their beliefs. The Code was signed by relevant authorities and top leaders belonging to Islam’s four mainstream schools of thought in the country, namely Barelvi, Shia,

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Deobandi and Ahle Hadees. Among those who signed the Code of Conduct are Minister for Religious Affairs Noorul Haq Qadri, CII chairman Qibla Ayaz, Mufti Taqi Usmani, Mufti Muneeb ur Rehman, Allama Sajid Mir, Hanif Jalandhari, Dr Mohammad Ragheb Naeemi, Syed Iftikhar Hussain Naqvi, Majlis Wahdatul Muslimeen Secretary General Allama Raja Nasir Abbas, Pir Nagibur Rehman, Allama Arif Wahidi and Syed Ziaullah Shah Bukhari. Talking to the media after the conference, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Religious Harmony, Hafiz Tahir Ashrafi lauded the responsible attitude of senior religious leaders of the country and noted the difference between past efforts and the current Code was its future implementation plan, which has made this conference successful.

India ● On October 3, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated a tunnel in the Himalayan region that is expected to significantly reduce the time needed to mobilise troops to the Chinese border. The tunnel traverses India's northern Himachal Pradesh state and lies on one of two main routes for troops headed to border areas in Ladakh. The $400-million, nine-kilometre tunnel will cut the journey by about 50km and four hours, enabling travellers to bypass a tricky route across a landslide-prone Himalayan pass. During the inauguration ceremony, PM Modi stated: “We have put our entire energy in developing our border infrastructure. The country hasn’t seen roads, bridges and tunnels built at this scale. Besides locals, this (infrastructure) will also hugely benefit the men and women in our army”. At least 20 Indian soldiers and an unspecified number of Chinese troops were killed in June 2020 during an intense clash in Ladakh, which shares a disputed boundary with China’s restive Xinjiang and Tibet regions. The two countries have since mobilised thousands of additional troops and weapons to the area, and have been engaged in a tense stand-off for months. ---Muhammad Shoaib

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SOUTH ASIA II Afghanistan

● On October 15, the United Nations’ Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), in a statement, noted that the increase of violence undermines efforts for progress during the ​ peace talks taking place in Doha.

The statement highlighted that civilians are routinely being killed or injured in armed clashes with high casualties resulting from indirect weapons, including mortars, rockets and grenades. These civilians, including many children, must be protected from harm. The only way to do that is to stop the violence. It further reiterated the call to halt violence and to focus on achieving a peaceful negotiated settlement to the Afghanistan conflict. The ongoing tug of war for the control of Helmand’s Lashkargah city between the Taliban and the US-led Afghan security forces has left several people dead and forced thousands to flee their homes. Meanwhile, on October 14, 2020, at least 16 Afghan security force members were killed and more than 10 others were wounded due to a Taliban attack in Baghlan province. In a related development, at least nine people were killed when two Afghan National Army MI-17 helicopters crashed due to technical issues in Nawa district of Helmand province.

● On October 13, the US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Ross Wilson, stated on Twitter that the current level of violence by the Taliban is not consistent with the US-Taliban Peace Agreement and must come to an end.

● On October 12, the Commander of NATO and US forces in Afghanistan, Gen. Scott Miller, asked the Taliban to immediately stop their offensive actions in Helmand province and reduce violence across Afghanistan.

Gen. Miller insisted that the Taliban’s campaign of violence contravenes the US-Taliban Agreement and undermines the ongoing Afghan peace talks. His remarks came a day after the Taliban attacked Lashkargah City of Helmand province. Spokesman for the US forces in Afghanistan, Col. Sonny Leggett, in a tweet, stated that US forces launched airstrikes to defend Afghan security forces under attack. He vowed continued military support in defence of Afghan forces under attack by the Taliban. According to the Ministry of Interior, at least 80 Taliban rebels were killed and nearly 100 others injured in a counterattack staged by Afghan security forces. The Taliban have been beefing up offensives across Afghanistan, despite calls from the US, Pakistan and international community for reduction in violence and reaching a permanent ceasefire deal with the Afghan Government. The insurgent group seems to be intensifying violence to achieve greater leverage during the ongoing intra-Afghan talks in Doha. However, this may also jeopardize the peace process.

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● On October 12, Chairman of US Joint Chiefs Of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, stated that US drawdown plans from Afghanistan are condition-based.

Gen. Milley stated: “We have a plan, a series of responsible drawdown options that has been briefed to the president. I’m not going to go into specific numbers for the future”. He also mentioned that at the time of the February 29, 2020 US-Taliban Peace Agreement, the US had around 12,000 US troops stationed in Afghanistan, which came down to 8,600 by mid summer 2020. Gen Milley further added that Washington maintains its plan to ensure responsible and deliberate drawdown to about 4,500 troops in Afghanistan very shortly. Future drawdowns will then be determined by the US President, based on the on-ground conditions. President Trump’s October 8, 2020 tweet regarding the complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan sparked debate and criticism. Before Gen. Milley’s remarks, NATO Secretary General, Gen Stoltenberg, and Trump’s own National Security Advisor called for an orderly and condition-based withdrawal from the war-torn country. On October 10, 2020, Abdullah Abdullah, Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation warned that a premature withdrawal of international troops would have consequences for the peace process, and that the Taliban would also not benefit from the withdrawal of US troops. Meanwhile, the Taliban ​ ​ remarked that the group hopes President Trump will win the US election and end American ​ forces’ presence in Afghanistan. However, President Trump’s campaign spokesman rejected the Taliban support and stated that “the Taliban should know that the president will always protect American interests by any means necessary”.

● On October 9, Chairman of Afghanistan’s Jamiat-e-Islami party, Salahuddin Rabbani, ​ stated that achieving peace within the current framework is not possible unless there is a meaningful participation of all parties involved in the ongoing conflict.

Rabbani stated: “Lack of an honest commitment for peace, dealing with this crucial process as a project and also lack of a national and inclusive framework will result into a deadlock, will waste the time and will create more mistrust”. Jamiat-e-Islami - one of the biggest parties in the country - has no delegate in the ongoing peace negotiations. Rabbani also criticized the monopoly of power and the amplification of discriminatory and biased views in the government. Meanwhile, the intra-Afghan talks in Doha have been suspended for the past 10 days. The two sides could not manage to reach a conclusion on the procedural rules for direct talks.

● On October 9, officials from Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and the US held a trilateral ​ meeting to discuss enhancing cooperation on Afghan peace, trade and connectivity.

The Meeting was co-chaired by US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, David Hale; Foreign Minister of Afghanistan, Haneef Atmar; and Foreign Minister of Turkmenistan, Rashid Meredov. Atmar stated that, in the meeting, they agreed to form subgroups to operationalise decisions on cross-border cooperation, information-sharing. He also reiterated Afghanistan’s

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participation in C5+1(a format comprising five Central Asia States and the US) and Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA), to advance railroad and infrastructure projects. According to the US Department of State, all parties committed to engage in greater joint cooperation in support of regional security, economic growth, and development, and called on countries of the region and the broader international community, to support the Afghan peace negotiations. They also extended support to projects that promote regional connectivity, by enhancing cooperation on construction and extension of transportation networks connecting Central Asia to South Asia via Afghanistan. The US has been making efforts to introduce models ​ ​ for future economic reconstruction of Afghanistan.

● On October 8, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad, and Commander of the Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan, Gen. Scott Miller, held a meeting with Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, in Rawalpindi.

According to the US Embassy in Pakistan, Khalilzad thanked Prime Minister Imran Khan and Gen. Bajwa for their help in advancing the Afghan peace process. They also agreed that the opportunity to reach a politically settled peace must not be lost and past mistakes should not be repeated. The parties also discussed PM Khan’s upcoming visit to Afghanistan and the roadmap that would guide Pakistan-Afghanistan relations after conclusion of a peace agreement. According to a statement issued by the Inter-Services Public Relations, matters relating to mutual interest, peace and stability in the region, Pak-Afghan border management and current developments in the Afghan peace process were discussed during the meeting. Before his departure to Pakistan, Khalilzad informed a forum at the University of Chicago’s Pearson Institute, via video link from Doha, that the US has been seeking an agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan as an adjunct to an internal peace whereby both countries would agree that their territory will not be allowed to be used against the other by extremist groups or groups attempting to undermine the security of the other. He also mentioned the economic incentives a stable and peaceful Afghanistan could offer to Pakistan. Washington wants Islamabad to use its leverage over the Taliban and convince the insurgent group to reduce violence and agree to a permanent ceasefire in Afghanistan. The US has also been struggling to convince Pakistan to accommodate Indian interests in the landlocked country. Moreover, Washington has recently introduced its plans for future economic reconstruction of Afghanistan, independent of already existing regional plans under China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union. The US has encouraged Pakistan’s active participation in making its new economic plan successful.

● On October 8, US President Donald Trump stated, in a tweet, that all US troops stationed in Afghanistan should be home by Christmas.

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Hours after Trump’s announcement, his National Security Adviser, Robert O’Brien, stated that Washington would reduce its forces in Afghanistan to 2,500 by early 2021. According to current estimates, Washington has around 8600 troops stationed in the war torn country. Trump and other officials have previously mentioned that the US will reduce its troop count to between 4,000 and 5,000 troops in Afghanistan by the end of November 2020. The Trump Administration has been adopting a “conditioned based” approach in Afghanistan. The gradual reduction in numbers of US troops in Afghanistan has been conditioned upon the Taliban’s ability to restrict terror organizations from operating against the US and its allies, as per the February 29 US-Taliban Peace Agreement. However, there are many other players involved in the affairs of Afghanistan other than the Taliban. A negotiating team of the Afghan Government (comprising two main camps of President Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah) has been engaged with the Taliban since September 12, 2020, to reach a comprehensive ceasefire and determine the nature of the future government. Despite the fact that the two parties remain engaged in talks in Doha, fierce clashes are underway between the Taliban and the US led Afghan Government forces across Afghanistan. In his interview with a local media outlet, US Special Representative for Afghanistan reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad, emphasised the need to reduce violence. He, however, appeared optimistic regarding the ongoing intra-Afghan talks and stated that the Afghan peace process is to be concluded in months, not years. The fate of complete withdrawal of US troops is dependent upon the ability of the Afghans to reach a ceasefire and power sharing agreement, followed by a joint effort to restrict terror operatives in Afghanistan.

● On October 8, Head of Afghanistan’s High Council for National Reconciliation, Abdullah Abdullah, met with Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, in New Delhi.

Abdullah stated, in a tweet after the meeting, that the latest developments in the ongoing Afghan peace process were discussed with Modi. He also noted that Modi reiterated his country’s support for the peace efforts. On October 7, 2020, Abdullah held a discussion with India’s National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval. Abdullah stated, in a tweet after his meeting with Doval: “... We discussed the Afghan Peace Process and the talks in Doha. He assured me of India’s full support for the peace efforts and that any peace settlement acceptable to Afghans will have the support of India”. Doval stated that his country is in favour of an independent, democratic, sovereign and peaceful Afghanistan, where no terrorists can operate. Earlier, Abdullah stated, prior to his departure from Kabul, that India is a strategic partner of Afghanistan and has continuously supported the government and people of Afghanistan. The US’ continuous ​ encouragement of New Delhi in Afghanistan, despite indications that the country could play the role of a spoiler due to its regional rivalries with the Taliban, Pakistan, and China, has resulted in India’s immense cooperation with the authorities in Kabul, especially in the military domain. India’s continuous transfer of military hardware to the Afghan Government forces in their fight against the Taliban has prolonged the peace process, and has averted chances to reach a ceasefire arrangement. Abdullah’s trip to India came after his three-day visit to Pakistan. The ​

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trip appears to be aimed at finding a common ground between the interests of Pakistan and India in Afghanistan. Pakistan believes that India has little to no role to play in the affairs of Afghanistan.

● On October 5, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani embarked on a visit to the Gulf States of Qatar and Kuwait, where he held meetings with leaders of both countries and discussed bilateral ties, as well as the ongoing Afghan peace process.

After attending the funeral of the Kuwaiti Emir, who died on September 29, 2020, Ghani reached Doha where he met with Qatar’s Emir, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and both sides discussed ​ enhancing bilateral ties and economic cooperation. Ghani also held a meeting with the Afghan ​ ​ Government’s negotiating team, the US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad, and US and NATO forces Commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Scott Miller. ​ After the meeting, Khalilzad stated in a tweet that Ghani has expressed his support to the Government negotiating team and called on all nations, especially the neighbouring countries and other key players, to do the same. Khalilzad also mentioned that the need for a reduction in violence was also being emphasised during their meeting. The opening ceremony for intra-Afghan talks was held on September 12, 2020, but the two sides have not yet begun direct negotiations. However, they have held over seven meetings between their contact groups to discuss procedural rules for the talks. The Government team’s Chief Negotiator, Masoom Stanekzai, stated that the negotiations may take time but there is a will to achieve success. Meanwhile, a Taliban spokesman stated that Khalilzad and Gen. Miller met with the Taliban Deputy Leader, Abdul Ghani Baradar, and discussed the implementation of the February 29, 2020 US-Taliban Peace Agreement, deeming it significant for resolution of the Afghanistan issue. The Taliban also announced that their leadership will not meet with Ghani during his Doha trip.

● On October 3, at least 15 people were killed and 30 others were wounded in a car bomb ​ explosion near the District Governor’s compound in Ghanikhil district of the eastern Nangarhar province.

The Nangarhar Governor’s Spokesman stated that after the explosion some gunmen wanted to enter the District Governor’s compound but were killed by security forces. The Afghan Government, in a statement, attributed responsibility for the attack to the Taliban and stated that the Taliban and other terrorist groups continue their “crimes” against the people of Afghanistan. In a related incident, on October 5, 2020, the convoy of Laghman province’s Governor was targeted. The Governor escaped the attack but it left eight people dead, including the Governor's driver and guards. No group, including the Taliban, claimed responsibility for the attack. Amid increasing violence, the US and NATO forces Commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Scott Miller, paid a visit to the northern Faryab province on October 3, 2020, and asked the Taliban to stop engaging in violence.

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● Dawn reported, on October 2, that the Head of Afghanistan’s High Council for National ​ Reconciliation, Abdullah Abdullah, stated that Pakistan and Afghanistan are on the same ​ page in relation to the need for reduction in violence.

According to the report, in an interview on September 30, 2020, hours before returning to Kabul after completing his three-day visit to Pakistan, Abdullah stated: “We had good discussions, extensive discussions with authorities, civilian and military, and in most of the case for example on the need for reduction in violence, the need for getting to ceasefire, on the need for showing flexibility … we are on the same page.” Kabul has long been demanding a ceasefire, but the Taliban have linked any cessation of violence to progress in the peace process. Pakistan has, over the past few weeks, repeatedly called on all Afghan sides to reduce violence.

● On October 1, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad, held discussions with the Taliban leadership during his visit to Doha.

Khalilzad met with Chief Taliban Negotiator, Mawlawi Abdul Hakim, and his Deputy, Abdul Ghani Baradar. The implementation of the February 29, 2020 US-Taliban Peace Agreement (Doha Agreement) and developments in the ongoing intra-Afghan talks were discussed during the meeting. Many articles of the Doha Agreement were contingent on the commencement of the ​ intra-Afghan talks, including lifting of sanctions imposed on the Taliban leadership. The opening ceremony of the intra-Afghan talks was held on September 12, 2020. However, negotiating Afghan teams have not yet reached an agreement on the procedural rules for talks.

Bangladesh

● On October 14, US Deputy Secretary of State, Stephen E Biegun, visited Bangladesh and discussed bilateral cooperation on COVID-19 response, recovery efforts and sustainable economic development with Bangladeshi authorities.

During his meeting with Biegun, Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister, Dr AK Abdul Momen, stated that Bangladesh has been gaining attention from the international community, due to its robust economic growth, stability and geopolitical position. Biegun noted that the US sees Bangladesh as one of the key partners in the Indo-Pacific region. Bangladesh’s Foreign Secretary, Masud Bin Momen and US Ambassador to Bangladesh, Earl Miller, also attended the meeting. The visit appears to be aimed at containing China's influence in Bangladesh. China not only intends to extend a number of mega infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative but also recently concluded a free trade agreement with Bangladesh.

---Kashif Hussain

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UNITED NATIONS

● On October 13, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) elected 15 States to the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC).

In secret ballot voting in the 193-member UNGA, the Assembly elected Bolivia, China, Cote d’Ivoire, Cuba, France, Gabon, Malawi, Mexico, Nepal, Pakistan, Russia, Senegal, Ukraine, the UK and Uzbekistan to the Council. Amongst these countries, Nepal, Pakistan, Ukraine, and Mexico were re-elected for a second term. All 15 members will serve three-year terms beginning on January 1, 2021. The UNGA elected the 15 new members in accordance with the following pattern: four seats for African States; four seats for Asia-Pacific States; two seats for Eastern European States; three seats for Latin American and Caribbean States; and two seats for Western European and other States.

Russia and Cuba contested the election unopposed, while China and Saudi Arabia competed for their candidature for the four seats of the Asia-Pacific group. Pakistan received 169 votes; Uzbekistan received 164 votes; Nepal received 150 votes; and China received 139 votes. Saudi Arabia received only 90 votes. The UN Director for Human Rights Watch (HRW), Louis Charbonneau, stated: “Saudi Arabia's failure to win a seat on the Human Rights Council is a welcome reminder of the need for more competition in UN elections. Had there been additional candidates, China, Cuba and Russia might have lost too”. Earlier, on October 8, 2020, the HRW urged UN Member States to vote against Saudi Arabia’s UNHRC candidature. HRW accused Saudi Arabia of “massive rights violations”, as well as targeting of human rights campaigners and political dissidents.

Meanwhile, on October 14, 2020, Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Munir Akram, stated that Pakistan's re-election to the UNHRC was a significant achievement. Ambassador Akram noted that Pakistan’s re-election to the UNHRC, with an overwhelming majority, refutes the claim that the country has been isolated in the international community. He stated: “We got the highest vote, which is a further proof of our international standing.”

● On October 12, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organisation (WHO), termed the idea of herd immunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic “simply unethical”.

● On October 9, China, the Republic of Korea and the Pacific Island of Nauru signed a global initiative that aims to ensure equitable access to a COVID-19 vaccine once the same is developed.

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Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated: “Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak”. While noting that the immunity is achieved by protecting people from the virus, “not by exposing them to it”, Tedros indicated that the unattended spread of COVID-19 would lead to unnecessary infections, suffering and deaths. He also observed that COVID-19 cases were rising again across the world and “many cities and countries were also reporting an increase in hospitalisations and intensive care bed occupancy”. According to the WHO, almost less than 10% of the population has any immunity to COVID-19, implying that the vast majority of the world remains susceptible. Tedros noted that there were no easy ways to tackle further spread of the pandemic; only a comprehensive approach has proven effective.

In a related development, on October 9, 2020, China, the Republic of Korea, and the Pacific Island of Nauru joined the COVAX Facility, bringing the total number of participating nations to 171. According to the WHO, the COVAX Global Vaccines Facility is the vaccine pillar of the April 2020 initiative known as the ACT-Accelerator. This initiative seeks to help in the development of medicines to treat COVID-19 and make these available to people everywhere. WHO Senior Adviser, Dr. Bruce Aylward, noted: “The facility works to ensure as many countries as possible cooperate to pool development, procurement, and allocation of any COVID-19 vaccines”.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated: “The world is eagerly anticipating the results of trials of vaccines against COVID-19, which are needed for WHO authorisation”. Tedros noted that the mechanism will work to deliver two billion doses by the end of next year. The mechanism currently has the largest portfolio of potential vaccines, with several in advanced human trials.

● On October 9, the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) welcomed the Agreement signed between the Federal Government of Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government on the status of Sinjar district in Ninewa.

According to media reports, the agreement aims at restoring stability and addressing administrative and security issues of Sinjar. The Agreement will bolster the Iraqi federal authority in Sinjar under the Constitution, in terms of governance and security. The Iraqi Government pledged to make efforts to search for hundreds of Yazidis, kidnapped previously by Daesh militants.

While welcoming the Agreement, the UNAMI termed it a “first and important step in the right direction”, and expressed hope that it would pave the way for a better future. The UN Special Representative for Iraq, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, noted that the Agreement would help in the beginning of “a new chapter for Sinjar, one in which the interests of the people of Sinjar come first”. In a statement, Kurdish Prime Minister, Masrour Barzani, thanked the UN Special Representative for her “support and personal involvement in this process”.

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● On October 6, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed his concern over increasing tension in Kyrgyzstan owing to eruption of protests in the aftermath of Parliamentary elections that took place on October 4, 2020.

In his statement, Antonio Guterres regretted the loss of life and urged “all involved to exercise the utmost restraint and refrain from violence”. According to media reports, one person lost his life and several others were injured after demonstrations intensified over alleged rigging. The protests turned violent as a group tried to enter Government buildings and the Parliament. On October 5, 2020, authorities in Kyrgyzstan announced nullification of the results of the election. Meanwhile, major opposition leaders also announced plans to form a new administration. Antonio Guterres urged all political leaders to engage in dialogue and agree on a way forward. The UN Secretary-General stated: “The UN stands ready to support all efforts aimed at finding a peaceful resolution of the current situation, including through the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA)”.

● On October 6, a UN-backed human rights panel noted in its paper that all warring parties in South Sudan intentionally used starvation as a war tactic in the country’s conflict.

In its Conference Room Paper of the Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, presented during the 75th session of the Human Rights Council, the Commission noted that the persistent conflict has caused immense suffering to civilians, and resulted in acute food insecurity and malnutrition. Commission Chairperson, Yasmin Sooka, stated: “It is quite clear that both Government and opposition forces have deliberately used the starvation of civilians as a method of warfare in these states, sometimes as an instrument to punish non-aligning communities, as in the case of Jonglei”. Sooka added: “With 7.5 million South Sudanese currently requiring humanitarian assistance, we have found that food insecurity in Western Bahr el Ghazal, Jonglei, and Central Equatoria States is linked directly to the conflict and therefore almost entirely human-induced”. The paper documented how Government forces intentionally deprived the Fertit and Luo communities living under the control of the opposition in Western Bahr el Ghazal State of critical resources between January 2017 and November 2018. The Commission found that these acts “amounted to collective punishment and starvation as a method of warfare, while Government commanders also authorised their soldiers to help themselves to items deemed to be indispensable to the survival of these populations, through pillaging”. The paper highlighted that the resulting food insecurity compounded physical insecurity, leaving civilians with no alternative but to flee.

Meanwhile, the Commission also released another report on transitional justice and accountability. This report aimed to serve as “a roadmap to energise the overdue implementation of the key commitments made in Chapter V of the 2018 Revitalised Peace Agreement”. The Agreement provides for the establishment of a transitional unity government, and Chapter V of the same covers transitional justice, including the creation of institutions such

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as a Commission for Truth, Reconciliation and Healing. In its second report, the Commission stated: “Without the timely implementation of an inclusive and holistic transitional justice process, as envisioned in the Peace Agreement, sustainable peace for South Sudan will remain elusive”.

● On October 2, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres reiterated his call for a global ceasefire and reminded the international community of their “special” duty to focus on the common enemy, the COVID-19 pandemic.

While commemorating the International Day of Non Violence, Antonio Guterres stated: “As the pandemic took hold, I called for a global ceasefire. Today, we need a new push by the international community to make this a reality by the end of this year”. He noted that the persistent conflicts would continue to fuel the spread of the pandemic. The UN Secretary-General urged UN Member States to intensify their efforts to ease the suffering of people and create space for negotiations towards peace.

● On October 1, UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, launched his annual report on the Work of the Organisation, noting that the international community must commit to building an inclusive and sustainable world.

In his report, titled “2020 Report of the Secretary-General on the Work of the Organisation”, Antonio Guterres highlighted some of the UN’s accomplishments, including “conclusions of agreements aimed at protecting human rights, setting goals for sustainable development, and charting a path towards a more balanced relationship with the natural world, among many others”. While highlighting challenges faced by the UN, Guterres noted that the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the world’s fragility, leaving “risks ignored for decades, namely, inadequate health systems; gaps in social protection; structural inequalities; environmental degradation; and the climate crisis”. He emphasised that even before the pandemic, “the world was not on track to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the target date of 2030”. The Secretary-General observed that the setback to the fundamental UN Charter goals of peace, justice, human rights and development has been “deep and may be long-lasting”.

--- Moiz Khan

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About the Authors

Muhammad Shoaib is a Senior Research Fellow at the Strategic Studies Institute Islamabad. Prior to joining the SSII, he served as Associate Research Strategist at a private think tank: The Aleph Institute Islamabad. He has also remained an intern at the Inter Services Public Relations Directorate (ISPR). His areas of interest include Cyber-Security, Politics of Middle East & West Asia and Arms control & disarmament

Moiz Khan is a Research Fellow at Strategic Studies Institute Islamabad. Prior to joining the SSII, he worked as an intern at the Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs Directorate in the Strategic Plans Division, Pakistan. His area of research focuses on Arms Control & Disarmament and Nuclear Strategy.

Kashif Hussain is a Research Associate at Strategic Studies Institute Islamabad (SSII). He has previously worked as an intern at Center for International Strategic Studies Islamabad (CISS). He was one of Pakistan’s youth ambassadors to Turkey under Turkey-Pakistan Youth Bridge Programme in March 2015. He has keen interest in geopolitics of South Asia.

Fareeha Shamim is a Research Associate at the Strategic Studies Institute Islamabad (SSII). Prior to joining SSII, Fareeha was working with the AJK government as a Research and Liaison officer. She has previously worked as an intern at Muslim Public Affairs Council (MPAC) and the International Center for Religion and Diplomacy (ICRD) in Washington, D.C. Her research focuses on religion and politics in Asia, ethics of war and peace, and the Kashmir dispute.