AREA BRIEFS OCT 2020 An Abridgement of Latest Strategic Developments 1-15 OCTOBER 2020 Strategic Studies Institute Islamabad About the Area Briefs SSII's Area Briefs are orderly & structured fortnight updates on international politics and strategic issues. Précis notes, divided under various headers, aims at keeping tabs on nearly all evolving issues related to traditional and non- traditional security. The rundown on events allows decision/ policy makers, advisors, researchers and students to stay cognizant of international & regional happenings, and helps in chalking out policies based on informed analysis. About SSII SSII is an independent think tank conducting in-depth research and analysis on issues related to foreign and defence policy. The purpose behind the creation of the SSII was to establish a dedicated academic and research institution for conducting research and trainings on important issues related to Pakistan’s security. SSII aim to put knowledge to practice by providing an alternate narrative in critical areas of Strategic Studies, especially Arms Control and Disarmament. CONTENTS … 2 Americas……………………………………………………………………​ 6 Arms Control and Disarmament……………………………………………​ China and East Asia…………………………………………………………. 13 19 Europe…………………………………………………………………………​ Global Terrorism…………………………………………………………… 26 Middle East & West Asia…………………………………………………… 29 .... 39 South Asia (I)………………………………………………………………​ South Asia (II)……………………………………………………………….. 47 United Nations……………………………………………………………….. 53 AMERICAS Domestic ● On October 7, during the Vice-Presidential debate, Vice President Mike Pence and Democratic challenger Kamala Harris argued over the Trump Administration’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the debate started, Democratic challenger Harris immediately criticised Trump’s record on the pandemic that has resulted in the deaths of 210,000 Americans and severely damaged the economy. She stated: “The American people have witnessed what is the greatest failure of any presidential administration in the history of our country”. In response, Pence blamed China for the pandemic and appreciated the US Administration’s efforts to battle the disease, including President Donald Trump’s decision in January 2020 to restrict travel from the pandemic’s epicentre in China. He stated: “I want the American people to know that from the very first day, President Donald Trump has put the health of America first. China is to blame for the COVID, and President Trump is not happy about it”. The two candidates also debated on the issue of racism in the country, as well as on the economy and tax policy. International ● On October 14, US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, met with the Foreign Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, in connection with the launch of the US-Saudi Strategic Dialogue in Washington, D.C. According to a statement issued by the US Department of State, Secretary Pompeo and Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan discussed the “importance of the bilateral relationship in maintaining regional stability through extensive security, economic, and people-to-people partnerships”. The statement noted that the strategic dialogue reaffirmed bilateral commitments to counter Iran’s threats to regional security and prosperity, seek a political solution to end the conflict in Yemen, and enhance maritime and border security. According to media reports, Pompeo also encouraged Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel. On September 15, 2020, Bahrain, which tightly coordinates its foreign policy with Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, signed the so-called Abraham Accords with Israel at the White House. During his meeting with Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Pompeo emphasised that the agreement “contributed greatly to our shared goals for regional peace and security”. He also stated: “They reflect a changing dynamic in the region, one in which countries rightly recognise the need for regional cooperation to counter Iranian influence and generate prosperity”. Pompeo added: “We hope 2 Saudi Arabia will consider normalising its relationships as well. We want to thank them for the assistance they’ve had in the success of the Abraham Accords so far”. During their meeting, Pompeo recognised Saudi Arabia’s progress towards transforming its economy under the Vision 2030 plan while emphasising the importance of continued human rights reform and strengthening of civil society. Delegates concluded the dialogue by agreeing to advance economic and security objectives through working groups on defence, economics and energy cooperation, and culture and educational exchanges. ● On October 9, a US court sentenced a Singaporean academic, who recruited US officials to provide classified political and defence information to China, to 14 months in prison. Working with Chinese intelligence since 2015, Jun Wei Yeo, also called Dickson Yeo, set up a political consultancy in Washington which he used to identify Americans with high-level security clearances that he sought to pay in exchange for classified information. He was arrested at an airport in November 2019 and pleaded guilty in July 2020 to one count of operating illegally as a foreign agent. According to his indictment, Yeo was a PhD student at the National University of Singapore, and was directed by Chinese intelligence to open up a fake consultancy in the US and offer jobs. He received more than 400 resumes, 90 % of which were from US Military or Government personnel with security clearances. He used these and the networking functions of LinkedIn to track down possible targets, focusing on persons with top security clearances. Yeo recruited a number of people to work with him, targeting those who admitted to financial difficulties. They included a civilian working on the Air Force’s F-35B stealth fighter-bomber project, a Pentagon army officer with Afghanistan experience, and a State Department official, all of whom were paid as much as $2,000 for writing reports for Yeo. According to Prosecutors, Yeo never got as far as collecting highly classified information, but that was his intent. ● On October 8, the Trump Administration blacklisted the entirety of Iran’s financial sector. The US Department of the Treasury hit 18 Iranian banks that had thus far escaped the re-imposed US sanctions, and subjected foreign, non-Iranian financial institutions to penalties for doing business with them. Thus, the sanctions effectively cut them off from the international financial system. While announcing the sanctions, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated: “Today’s action to identify the financial sector and sanction eighteen major Iranian banks reflects our commitment to stop illicit access to US dollars. Our sanctions programmes will continue until Iran stops its support of terrorist activities and ends its nuclear programmes”. He added: “Today’s actions will continue to allow for humanitarian transactions to support the Iranian people”. According to the Treasury, the action targets sixteen Iranian banks for their role in the country’s financial sector; one bank for being owned or controlled by another 3 sanctioned Iranian bank; and one military affiliated bank. According to analysts, the move will worsen US’ tensions with European nations and others over Iran. ● On October 6, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo attended a meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) or “the Quad” in Tokyo and spoke with his Japanese, Indian and Australian counter parts. He urged the allies to unite against China’s “exploitation, corruption and coercion” in the region. The Quad group held the meeting to present a united front against Beijing. While referring to the “pandemic that came from Wuhan”, Pompeo stated that it was “made infinitely worse by the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) cover-up”. Citing China’s actions in the Himalayas, Taiwan Strait and elsewhere, Pompeo warned it was “more critical now than ever that we collaborate to protect our people and partners from the CCP’s exploitation, corruption and coercion”. According to analysts, Pompeo is an outspoken critic of China, with respect to several issues, including security, human rights and the pandemic, which the Trump Administration has sought to blame squarely on Beijing ahead of the US Presidential Election. He is the first senior American official to visit Japan since Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga took office in September 2020. According to Suga, he was confident Tokyo and Washington were on the same page. The Quad grouping was initiated as a dialogue in 2007 by then Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, with the support of Vice President Dick Cheney of the US, Prime Minister John Howard of Australia and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India. The QSD was promoted as a way for the region’s major democracies to step up cooperation in the face of military and other threats posed by China. ● On October 2, the US imposed sanctions on eight Belarusian officials, accusing them of involvement in rigging President Alexander Lukashenko’s re-election victory in August 2020. While announcing the sanctions, US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, stated: “The US and our international partners stand united in imposing costs on those who have undermined Belarusian democracy for years”. The US sanctions also targeted Belarusian Interior Minister, Yuri Karaev, as well as his deputy. Those under sanctions are subject to asset freezes and a ban against Americans doing business with them. Earlier, the European Union also announced sanctions on 40 people, including