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Contents: Systemic Planning by Steen Leleur, Publisher POLYTEKNISK FORLAG, 2008 Contents: Systemic Planning By Steen Leleur, publisher POLYTEKNISK FORLAG, 2008 Figures and tables v Preface xi Acknowledgements xv 1 SYSTEMIC THINKING, COMPLEXITY AND PLANNING 1 The nature of thinking in general 2, Classifying complexity 3, Detail complexity 7, Dynamic complexity 11, Preference complexity 13, Categories of problems 17, What is systems science? 22, And what is systemic thinking? 26, The basic ideas of systemic planning 31 2 THE THREE WAVES OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE 39 The first wave: systems as reality 40, The second wave: systems as constructs 42, The third wave: systems as representations 49, Systems science in a context of current major research approaches 54 3 COMMUNICATION AND FUTURE-ORIENTED ACTION 63 Planning as communicative action 66, From optimisation to learning 77, How to deal with causality – or the lack of same 83, A new view of planning 87 iii 4 THE EMERGING HYPERCOMPLEX SOCIETY AND SYSTEMIC PLANNING…………………………………………………………………101 The contours of the hypercomplex society 102, Contingency as plan- ning condition 111, Planning, politics and power 117, The role of the systemic planner 125 EPILOGUE: ON SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND COMPLEXITY………. 139 Appendix 1: The SCOPE framework…………………………………..... 147 Appendix 2: The COSIMA model……………………………………….. 169 Appendix 3: Systems science and complexity: Some proposals for future development………………………...……………………….. 199 BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………………………………………….… 221 INDEX……………………………………………………………………… 233 iv Figures and tables Figure1.1 The Koch curve as a fractal resulting from 8 an endless process of iteration Figure 1.2 Weather sequences in a computer model: 11 The Butterfly Effect by Lorenz Figure 1.3 The shaping of an interest, symbolically 15 illustrated by magnets in a piece of iron Figure 2.1 Soft Systems Methodology (SSM): Structure of 47 phases and a mnemonic checklist (“CATWOE”) for particular considerations Figure 4.1 Illustration of the systemic process at a time when 130 two operations research (OR) methods have been used Figure 4.2 Ilustration of the systemic process at a time when 131 four operations research (OR) methods have been used Table 1.1 Boulding’s hierarchy of systems: Altogether 5 nine levels of systems with increasing com- plexity are identified Table 1.2 Problem types relating to the configuration 17 of means and ends Table 1.3 The two paradigms about Simplicity 28 and Complexity Table 2.1 Selected recognised systems techniques 44 v Table 2.2 Characteristics of functionalist and inter- 56 pretive research approaches representing the first and second waves of systems science Table 2.3 Characteristics of emancipatory, postmodern 57 and complexity research approaches represent- ing the current third wave of systems science Table 3.1 Overview of Habermas’s model of linguistic 70 communication Table 3.2 Overview of model for planning validity claims 72 and planning concerns Table 3.3 Overview of the ADSA planning concerns and 72 tests Table 3.4 Overview of the five stages of skill acquisition 82 Table 3.5 Comparison of conventional planning with a 93 new view of planning Table 4.1 Overview of functionally differentiated societal 109 systems: some examples Table 4.2 Societal development stages as a result of rising 110 complexity Table 4.3 Seven hard and seven soft (“2 x 7”) methods 132 Appendices: Figure I.1 The SCOPE process as four interrelated modes of 155 exploration and learning Figure I.2 Application of SCOPE on the Øresund Fixed Link 164 with indication of some selected first-round findings Figure II.1 Non-linear and linear value functions 175 Figure II.2 The two case towns in Zealand, Denmark 179 Figure II.3 TRR values with 50% MCA 182 Figure II.4 TRR values as a function of the MCA% 183 Figure II.5 TRR values with 50% MCA 186 Figure II.6 TRR values as a function of the MCA% 187 vi Table I.1 The two paradigms about Simplicity and 154 Complexity Table I.2 Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) as method- 159 ology in the SCOPE systemic scanning mode Table II.1 The three MCA impacts together with the 180 investment cost and first-year benefit (FYB) from the CBA methodology Table II.2 The three MCA impacts rated by using the 181 point scale method Table II.3 ROD weights w(j) for the MCA effects 181 Table II.4 TRR values with 50% MCA 182 Table II.5 Ratings assigned to the three MCA effects 185 by using the AHP method Table II.6 ROD weights w(j) for the MCA effects 185 Table II.7 TRR values with 50% MCA 186 Table III.1 Systems science as three waves 204 Table III.2 Aims of systems approaches relating to the 207 five research orientations vii viii … selection is the dynamic of complexity. Every complex system must adapt itself to time – in whatever operatively graspable form this requirement takes for the system. Niklas Luhmann in “Social Systems”, 1984, p. 42 ix x Preface This book is about systemic planning. It treats this topic by taking a broad sweep from the rationales that can be found in the theoretical developments of the 20th century in systems science and the most recent complexity theories, to an outline of the qualifications and skills necessary for an envisioned systemic planner. Some relevant methodology is set out: a planning framework SCOPE and a multi- criteria method COSIMA. As indicated in the title, the main concern of this book is with principles and methodology for planning in a complex world; I argue that there is a need for a wider, more systemic approach to planning. Getting to grips with the notion of “systemic” is therefore important in what follows. Right away, it should be noted that I will use the term systemic in a quite comprehensive way, i.e. as including both quantitative (“hard”) and qualitative (“soft”) issues relating to both concepts and methods. By referring to systemic planning, I want to define a conception of planning that includes both its more conventional meaning – as a kind of special case – and new ideas that relate to issues of societal complexity which necessitate a renewal of thinking about planning. Planning quite basically assumes that proactive effort is worthwhile. We find planning behaviour both on a small scale – a person preparing a trip abroad for example – and on a larger scale, where organisations, be they public or private, try to prepare and manage future action in xi accordance with what they find “best” under the given circumstances. While the maps for a travelling route abroad in most cases may be reliable information, the “maps” offered to both public and private organisations and enterprises into the “future-scape” are much less reliable. We live in a complex world. Accordingly, this world is not always easily comprehended in a way that would allow our preparations for future-oriented action to be rational in accordance with some chosen standard. What then is the role of planning? How do we get support for future-oriented decision-making? These and other questions reside within a fundamental and more wide-ranging one: what becomes of the meaning of planning when unpredictability and complexity seem to characterise the planning task ahead of us? Possible and hopefully plausible answers to this question are set out in this book. The topic is seen as both important and timely. Our Western type of society is transforming from modern via postmodern to what we may preliminarily term the hypermodern society. Such transformation heavily impacts our organisations and the professionals who work in them. A general trend underlying these changes is the greater uncertainty and complexity that condition the processes of change everywhere. In fact, I will later characterise the hypermodern society now beginning to unfold in the 21st century as characterised by hypercomplexity. So later on, I call the new type of society the hypercomplex society. The question to be dealt with therefore concerns whether planning can be a meaningful endeavour in the organisations of the hypercomplex society. The book is written out of the conviction that there is a positive – but cautious – answer to be given. In Chapter 1, the foundations of systemic planning are laid out as we identify and seek to get to grips with three different types of complexity: detail complexity, dynamic complexity and what is called preference complexity. This leads to a clarification of some of the ideas that constitute systemic thinking and influence the development of systemic planning. The chapter also introduces two paradigms relating to simplicity and complexity thinking, and it ends with some planning- related definitions that give the basic ideas of systemic planning. xii Chapter 2 examines what are presented as the three waves of systems science. By reviewing the work of the major systems researchers of the 20th century, we obtain insights that can assist in ramifying and enriching the foundations of systemic planning laid down in the first chapter. This makes it possible to formulate the contents of a systems-based research approach to planning. I conclude the chapter by comparing various research approaches that can be used in current thinking about planning theory and practice, including the one actually treated in this book, which stems from a complexity theory orientation. In Chapter 3, a communication-based planning model is developed by making use of the theories set out by the German sociologist Jürgen Habermas. This model makes it possible to focus on a wider concept of rationality in the planning process and thereby reorient our attention with regard to the content of an appropriate planning practice. The model makes it clear why traditional, so-called rational, comprehensive planning (or analytical planning) is insufficient – and sometimes even misleading – in complex settings, and what issues we need to focus on to reconsider it.
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