The Talking Cure Cody CH 2014
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Complexity” Makes a Difference: Lessons from Critical Systems Thinking and the Covid-19 Pandemic in the UK
systems Article How We Understand “Complexity” Makes a Difference: Lessons from Critical Systems Thinking and the Covid-19 Pandemic in the UK Michael C. Jackson Centre for Systems Studies, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7TS, UK; [email protected]; Tel.: +44-7527-196400 Received: 11 November 2020; Accepted: 4 December 2020; Published: 7 December 2020 Abstract: Many authors have sought to summarize what they regard as the key features of “complexity”. Some concentrate on the complexity they see as existing in the world—on “ontological complexity”. Others highlight “cognitive complexity”—the complexity they see arising from the different interpretations of the world held by observers. Others recognize the added difficulties flowing from the interactions between “ontological” and “cognitive” complexity. Using the example of the Covid-19 pandemic in the UK, and the responses to it, the purpose of this paper is to show that the way we understand complexity makes a huge difference to how we respond to crises of this type. Inadequate conceptualizations of complexity lead to poor responses that can make matters worse. Different understandings of complexity are discussed and related to strategies proposed for combatting the pandemic. It is argued that a “critical systems thinking” approach to complexity provides the most appropriate understanding of the phenomenon and, at the same time, suggests which systems methodologies are best employed by decision makers in preparing for, and responding to, such crises. Keywords: complexity; Covid-19; critical systems thinking; systems methodologies 1. Introduction No one doubts that we are, in today’s world, entangled in complexity. At the global level, economic, social, technological, health and ecological factors have become interconnected in unprecedented ways, and the consequences are immense. -
Navigating the Landscape of Conflict: Applications of Dynamical Systems Theory to Addressing Protracted Conflict
Dynamics of Intractable Conflict Peter T. Coleman, PhD Robin Vallacher, PhD Andrzej Nowak, PhD International Center for Cooperation and Conflict Resolution Teachers College, Columbia University New York, NY, USA Why are some intergroup conflicts impossible to solve and what can we do to address them? “…one of the things that frustrates me about this conflict, thinking about this conflict, is that people don’t realize the complexity… how many stakeholders there are in there…I think there is a whole element to this particular conflict to where you start the story, to where you begin the narrative, and clearly it’s whose perspective you tell it from…One of the things that’s always struck me is that there are very compelling narratives to this conflict and all are true, in as much as anything is true… I think the complexity is on so many levels…It’s a complexity of geographic realities…the complexities are in the relationships…it has many different ethnic pockets… and I think it’s fighting against a place, where particularly in the United States, in American culture, we want to simplify, we want easy answers…We want to synthesize it down to something that people can wrap themselves around and take a side on…And maybe sometimes I feel overwhelmed…” (Anonymous Palestinian, 2002) Four Basic Themes An increasing degree of complexity and interdependence of elements. An underlying proclivity for change, development, and evolution within people and social-physical systems. Extraordinary cognitive, emotional, and behavioral demands…anxiety, hopelessness. Oversimplification of problems. Intractable Conflicts: The 5% Problem Three inter-related dimensions (Kriesberg, 2005): Enduring Destructive Resistant Uncommon but significant (5%; Diehl & Goertz, 2000) 5% of 11,000 interstate rivalries between 1816-1992. -
Fractal Expressionism—Where Art Meets Science
Santa Fe Institute. February 14, 2002 9:04 a.m. Taylor page 1 Fractal Expressionism—Where Art Meets Science Richard Taylor 1 INTRODUCTION If the Jackson Pollock story (1912–1956) hadn’t happened, Hollywood would have invented it any way! In a drunken, suicidal state on a stormy night in March 1952, the notorious Abstract Expressionist painter laid down the foundations of his masterpiece Blue Poles: Number 11, 1952 by rolling a large canvas across the oor of his windswept barn and dripping household paint from an old can with a wooden stick. The event represented the climax of a remarkable decade for Pollock, during which he generated a vast body of distinct art work commonly referred to as the “drip and splash” technique. In contrast to the broken lines painted by conventional brush contact with the canvas surface, Pollock poured a constant stream of paint onto his horizontal canvases to produce uniquely contin- uous trajectories. These deceptively simple acts fuelled unprecedented controversy and polarized public opinion around the world. Was this primitive painting style driven by raw genius or was he simply a drunk who mocked artistic traditions? Twenty years later, the Australian government rekindled the controversy by pur- chasing the painting for a spectacular two million (U.S.) dollars. In the history of Western art, only works by Rembrandt, Velazquez, and da Vinci had com- manded more “respect” in the art market. Today, Pollock’s brash and energetic works continue to grab attention, as witnessed by the success of the recent retro- spectives during 1998–1999 (at New York’s Museum of Modern Art and London’s Tate Gallery) where prices of forty million dollars were discussed for Blue Poles: Number 11, 1952. -
Laplace's Deterministic Paradise Lost ?
“We may regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future. An intellect which at a certain moment would know all forces that set nature in motion, and all positions of all items of which nature is composed, if this intellect were also vast enough to submit these data to analysis, it would embrace in a single formula the movements Laplace’s deterministic paradise lost of the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the tiniest atom; for such an intellect nothing would be uncertain and the future just like the past would be present before its eyes.” Miguel Angel Fuentes Santa Fe Institute, USA Pierre-Simon Laplace, ~1800 Instituto Balseiro and CONICET, Argentina Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe Institute Comments: Heisenberg uncertainty principle In the framework of quantum mechanics -one of the most successful created theories- is not possible to know -at the Einstein was very unhappy about this apparent randomness same time- the position and velocity of a given object. (~1927) in nature. His views were summed up in his famous phrase, 'God does not play dice.' ∆v ∆x m > h v v v (from Stephen Hawking’s lecture) ? Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe Institute In chaotic (deterministic) systems Same functionality (SAME ORGANISM) x(t) Not chaotic trajectory x(0) = c ∆x ± t ? Some expected initial condition + Mutations Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe Institute Same functionality (SAME ORGANISM) Many process can happen between regular-chaotic behavior Chaotic trajectory Some expected initial condition + Mutations Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe Institute 4.1 Parameter Dependence of the Iterates 35 4.1 Parameter Dependence of the Iterates 35 r values are densely interwr values oarevedenselyn andinterwoneovfindsen and onea sensitifinds a sensitive dependenceve dependence ononparameterparametervalues.values. -
The Social System of Systems Intelligence – a Study Based on Search Engine Method
In Essays on Systems Intelligence, eds. Raimo P. Hämäläinen and Esa Saarinen: pp. 119-133 Espoo: Aalto University, School of Science and Technology, Systems Analysis Laboratory Chapter 5 The Social System of Systems Intelligence – A Study Based on Search Engine Method Kalevi Kilkki This essay offers an preliminary study on systems intelligence as a social system based on four cornerstones: writings using the terminology of systems intelligence, search engines, models to describe the behavior of social phenomena, and a theory of social systems. As a result we provide an illustration of systems intelligence field as a network of key persons. The main conclusion is that the most promising area for systems intelligence as social system is to systematically apply positive psychology to develop organizational management and to solve our everyday problems. Introduction The social system of systems intelligence is an ambitious topic, particularly for a person without any formal studies in sociology. Moreover, systems intelligence is a novel area of science and, hence, the development of its social structures is in early phase. It is even possible to argue that there is not yet any social system of systems intelligence. The approach of this study is based on four cornerstones: first, the literature that has used concept of systems intelligence, second, search engines, third, models to describe the behavior of social phenomena, and forth, a theory of social systems. As a result we may be able to say something novel about the development of systems intelligence as a social system. As to the social systems this essay relies on the grand theory developed by Niklas Luhmann (Luhmann 1995). -
Self-Organized Complexity in the Physical, Biological, and Social Sciences
Introduction Self-organized complexity in the physical, biological, and social sciences Donald L. Turcotte*† and John B. Rundle‡ *Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853; and ‡Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 he National Academy of Sciences convened an Arthur M. A complex phenomenon is said to exhibit self-organizing TSackler Colloquium on ‘‘Self-organized complexity in the phys- complexity only if it has some form of power-law (fractal) ical, biological, and social sciences’’ at the NAS Beckman Center, scaling. It should be emphasized, however, that the power-law Irvine, CA, on March 23–24, 2001. The organizers were D.L.T. scaling may be applicable only over a limited range of scales. (Cornell), J.B.R. (Colorado), and Hans Frauenfelder (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM). The organizers had no Networks difficulty in finding many examples of complexity in subjects Another classic example of self-organizing complexity is drain- ranging from fluid turbulence to social networks. However, an age networks. These networks are characterized by the concept acceptable definition for self-organizing complexity is much more of stream order. The smallest streams are first-order streams— elusive. Symptoms of systems that exhibit self-organizing complex- two first-order streams merge to form a second-order stream, ity include fractal statistics and chaotic behavior. Some examples of two second-order streams merge to form a third-order stream, such systems are completely deterministic (i.e., fluid turbulence), and so forth. Drainage networks satisfy the fractal relation Eq. -
Introductory Course on Dynamical Systems Theory and Intractable Conflict DST Course Objectives
Introductory Course on Dynamical Systems Theory and Intractable Conflict Peter T. Coleman Columbia University December 2012 This self-guided 4-part course will introduce the relevance of dynamical systems theory for understanding, investigating, and resolving protracted social conflict at different levels of social reality (interpersonal, inter-group, international). It views conflicts as dynamic processes whose evolution reflects a complex interplay of factors operating at different levels and timescales. The goal for the course is to help develop a basic understanding of the dynamics underlying the development and transformation of intractable conflict. DST Course Objectives Participants in this class will: Learn the basic ideas and methods associated with dynamical systems. Learn the relevance of dynamical systems for personal and interpersonal processes. Learn the implications of dynamical models for understanding and investigating conflict of different types and at different levels of social reality. Learn to think about conflict in a manner that allows for new and testable means of conflict resolution. Foundational Texts Nowak, A. & Vallacher, R. R. (1998). Dynamical social psychology. New York: Guilford Publications. Vallacher, R., Nowak, A., Coleman, P. C., Bui-Wrzosinska, L., Leibovitch, L., Kugler, K. & Bartoli, A. (Forthcoming in 2013). Attracted to Conflict: The Emergence, Maintenance and Transformation of Malignant Social Relations. Springer. Coleman (2011). The Five Percent: Finding Solutions to Seemingly Impossible Conflicts. Perseus Books. Coleman, P. T. & Vallacher, R. R. (Eds.) (2010). Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology, Vol. 16, No. 2, 2010. (Special issue devoted to dynamical models of intractable conflict). Ricigliano, R. (2012).Making Peace Last. Paradigm. Burns, D. (2007). Systemic Action Research: A Strategy for Whole System Change. -
Santa Fe Institute 2014 Complex Systems Summer School
Santa Fe Institute 2014 Complex Systems Summer School Introduction to Nonlinear Dynamics Instructor: Liz Bradley Department of Computer Science University of Colorado Boulder CO 80309-0430 USA [email protected] www.cs.colorado.edu/∼lizb Syllabus: 1. Introduction; Dynamics of Maps chs 1 & 10 of [52] • a brief tour of nonlinear dynamics [34] (in [18]) • an extended example: the logistic map – how to plot its behavior – initial conditions, transients, and fixed points – bifurcations and attractors – chaos: sensitive dependence on initial conditions, λ, and all that – pitchforks, Feigenbaum, and universality [23] (in [18]) – the connection between chaos and fractals [24], ch 11 of [52] – period-3, chaos, and the u-sequence [33, 36] (latter is in [18]) – maybe: unstable periodic orbits [3, 26, 51] 2. Dynamics of Flows [52], sections 2.0-2.3, 2.8, 5, and 6 (except 6.6 and 6.8) • maps vs. flows – time: discrete vs. continuous – axes: state/phase space [10] • an example: the simple harmonic oscillator – some math & physics review [9] – portraying & visualizing the dynamics [10] • trajectories, attractors, basins, and boundaries [10] • dissipation and attractors [44] • bifurcations 1 • how sensitive dependence and the Lyapunov exponent manifest in flows • anatomyofaprototypicalchaoticattractor: [24] – stretching/folding and the un/stable manifolds – fractal structure and the fractal dimension ch 11 of [52] – unstable periodic orbits [3, 26, 51] – shadowing – maybe: symbol dynamics [27] (in [14]); [29] • Lab: (Joshua Garland) the logistic map and the driven pendulum 3. Tools [2, 10, 39, 42] • ODE solvers and their dynamics [9, 35, 37, 46] • Poincar´esections [28] • stability, eigenstuff, un/stable manifolds and a bit of control theory • embedology [30, 31, 32, 41, 48, 49, 47, 54] ([41] is in [39] and [47] is in [55];) • Lab: (Joshua Garland) nonlinear time series analysis with the tisean package[1, 32]. -
Chaos Based RFID Authentication Protocol
Chaos Based RFID Authentication Protocol Hau Leung Harold Chung A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF APPLIED SCIENCE in Electrical and Computer Engineering School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Faculty of Engineering University of Ottawa c Hau Leung Harold Chung, Ottawa, Canada, 2013 Abstract Chaotic systems have been studied for the past few decades because of its complex be- haviour given simple governing ordinary differential equations. In the field of cryptology, several methods have been proposed for the use of chaos in cryptosystems. In this work, a method for harnessing the beneficial behaviour of chaos was proposed for use in RFID authentication and encryption. In order to make an accurate estimation of necessary hardware resources required, a complete hardware implementation was designed using a Xilinx Virtex 6 FPGA. The results showed that only 470 Xilinx Virtex slices were required, which is significantly less than other RFID authentication methods based on AES block cipher. The total number of clock cycles required per encryption of a 288-bit plaintext was 57 clock cycles. This efficiency level is many times higher than other AES methods for RFID application. Based on a carrier frequency of 13:56Mhz, which is the standard frequency of common encryption enabled passive RFID tags such as ISO-15693, a data throughput of 5:538Kb=s was achieved. As the strength of the proposed RFID authentication and encryption scheme is based on the problem of predicting chaotic systems, it was important to ensure that chaotic behaviour is maintained in this discretized version of Lorenz dynamical system. -
Towards a Theory of Sustainable Prevention of Chagas Disease: an Ethnographic
Towards a Theory of Sustainable Prevention of Chagas Disease: An Ethnographic Grounded Theory Study A dissertation presented to the faculty of Ohio University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy Claudia Nieto-Sanchez December 2017 © 2017 Claudia Nieto-Sanchez. All Rights Reserved. 2 This dissertation titled Towards a Theory of Sustainable Prevention of Chagas Disease: An Ethnographic Grounded Theory Study by CLAUDIA NIETO-SANCHEZ has been approved for the School of Communication Studies, the Scripps College of Communication, and the Graduate College by Benjamin Bates Professor of Communication Studies Mario J. Grijalva Professor of Biomedical Sciences Joseph Shields Dean, Graduate College 3 Abstract NIETO-SANCHEZ, CLAUDIA, Ph.D., December 2017, Individual Interdisciplinary Program, Health Communication and Public Health Towards a Theory of Sustainable Prevention of Chagas Disease: An Ethnographic Grounded Theory Study Directors of Dissertation: Benjamin Bates and Mario J. Grijalva Chagas disease (CD) is caused by a protozoan parasite called Trypanosoma cruzi found in the hindgut of triatomine bugs. The most common route of human transmission of CD occurs in poorly constructed homes where triatomines can remain hidden in cracks and crevices during the day and become active at night to search for blood sources. As a neglected tropical disease (NTD), it has been demonstrated that sustainable control of Chagas disease requires attention to structural conditions of life of populations exposed to the vector. This research aimed to explore the conditions under which health promotion interventions based on systemic approaches to disease prevention can lead to sustainable control of Chagas disease in southern Ecuador. -
A Systems Inquiry Into Organizational Learning for Higher Education
A SYSTEMS INQUIRY INTO ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING FOR HIGHER EDUCATION by M Victoria Liptak B.A. (University of California, Santa Cruz) 1985 M.Arch. (Southern California Institute of Architecture) 1994 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctorate in Educational Leadership (CODEL) California State University Channel Islands California State University, Fresno 2019 ii M Victoria Liptak May 2019 Educational Leadership A SYSTEMS INQUIRY INTO ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING FOR HIGHER EDUCATION Abstract This study took an applied systems design approach to investigating social organizations in order to develop a synthetic perspective, one that supports pragmatism’s focus on consequent phenomena. As a case study of reaffirmation processes for four 4-year institutions and their accreditor, WSCUC, it looked for evidence of organizational learning in the related higher education systems of institutions and regional accrediting agencies. It used written documents as evidence of the extended discourse that is the reaffirmation of accreditation process. The documents were analyzed from a set of three perspectives in an effort to build a fuller understanding of the organizations. A structural analysis perspective looked for structural qualities within the discourse and its elements. A categorical analysis perspective considered the evidence of organizational learning that could be found by reviewing the set of documents produced by both WSCUC and the institution as part of the reaffirmation process. The review applied categorical frames adapted from the core strategies identified in Kezar and Eckel (2002b), the five disciplines proposed by Senge (2006), and the six activities identified in Dill (1999). It looked for relationships and interdependencies developed in the content within and between documents. -
Τα Cellular Automata Στο Σχεδιασμό
τα cellular automata στο σχεδιασμό μια προσέγγιση στις αναδρομικές σχεδιαστικές διαδικασίες Ηρώ Δημητρίου επιβλέπων Σωκράτης Γιαννούδης 2 Πολυτεχνείο Κρήτης Τμήμα Αρχιτεκτόνων Μηχανικών ερευνητική εργασία Ηρώ Δημητρίου επιβλέπων καθηγητής Σωκράτης Γιαννούδης Τα Cellular Automata στο σχεδιασμό μια προσέγγιση στις αναδρομικές σχεδιαστικές διαδικασίες Χανιά, Μάιος 2013 Chaos and Order - Carlo Allarde περιεχόμενα 0001. εισαγωγή 7 0010. χάος και πολυπλοκότητα 13 a. μια ιστορική αναδρομή στο χάος: Henri Poincare - Edward Lorenz 17 b. το χάος 22 c. η πολυπλοκότητα 23 d. αυτοοργάνωση και emergence 29 0011. cellular automata 31 0100. τα cellular automata στο σχεδιασμό 39 a. τα CA στην στην αρχιτεκτονική: Paul Coates 45 b. η φιλοσοφική προσέγγιση της διεπιστημονικότητας του σχεδιασμού 57 c. προσομοίωση της αστικής ανάπτυξης μέσω CA 61 d. η περίπτωση της Changsha 63 0101. συμπεράσματα 71 βιβλιογραφία 77 1. Metamorphosis II - M.C.Escher 6 0001. εισαγωγή Η επιστήμη εξακολουθεί να είναι η εξ αποκαλύψεως προφητική περιγραφή του κόσμου, όπως αυτός φαίνεται από ένα θεϊκό ή δαιμονικό σημείο αναφοράς. Ilya Prigogine 7 0001. 8 0001. Στοιχεία της τρέχουσας αρχιτεκτονικής θεωρίας και μεθοδολογίας προτείνουν μια εναλλακτική λύση στις πάγιες αρχιτεκτονικές μεθοδολογίες και σε ορισμένες περιπτώσεις υιοθετούν πτυχές του νέου τρόπου της κατανόησής μας για την επιστήμη. Αυτά τα στοιχεία εμπίπτουν σε τρεις κατηγορίες. Πρώτον, μεθοδολογίες που προτείνουν μια εναλλακτική λύση για τη γραμμικότητα και την αιτιοκρατία της παραδοσιακής αρχιτεκτονικής σχεδιαστικής διαδικασίας και θίγουν τον κεντρικό έλεγχο του αρχιτέκτονα, δεύτερον, η πρόταση μιας μεθοδολογίας με βάση την προσομοίωση της αυτο-οργάνωσης στην ανάπτυξη και εξέλιξη των φυσικών συστημάτων και τρίτον, σε ορισμένες περιπτώσεις, συναρτήσει των δύο προηγούμενων, είναι μεθοδολογίες οι οποίες πειραματίζονται με την αναδυόμενη μορφή σε εικονικά περιβάλλοντα.