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Coping with the Bounds: Speculations on Nonlinearity in Military Affairs

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Coping with the Bounds: Speculations on Nonlinearity in Military Affairs This publication was originally produced by the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University (NDU) in 1998 for the CCRP. DoD Command and Control Research Program Assistant Secretary of Defense (NII) & Chief Information Officer Mr. John P. Stenbit Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (NII) Dr. Linton Wells, II Special Assistant to the ASD(NII) & Director, Research and Strategic Planning Dr. David S. Alberts Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense, or any other U.S. Government agency. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Portions of this publication may be quoted or reprinted without further permission, with credit to the DoD Command and Control Research Program, Washington, D.C. Courtesy copies of reviews would be appreciated. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Czerwinski, Thomas J. Coping with the bounds : speculations on nonlinearity in military affairs / Tom Czerwinski. p. cm Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 1-57906-009-9 1. Military art and science--Philosophy. 2. Nonlinear theories. 3. Complexity (Philosophy) I.Title. U21.2.C94 1998 355’.001--dc21 98-14653 January 1998 CIP Reprint August 2003 Coping with the Bounds Speculations on Nonlinearity in Military Affairs Tom Czerwinski “I am convinced that the nations and people who master the new sciences of complexity will become the economic, cultural, and political superpowers of the next century.” Heinz Pagels Physicist, author of Dreams of Reason, and inspira- tion for the character of the Chaos scientist in the book and film “Jurassic Park.” Died climbing a mountain in 1988. Table of Contents Foreword ...............................................................................iii Acknowledgments................................................................... v Introduction ............................................................................1 Part One: Linearity + Nonlinearity 1. Nonlinearity: An Introduction ........................................... 7 2. The Nature of Linear Reductionism................................ 27 3. Toward a Nonlinear Reductionism ................................. 39 4. The Meshing of “Tools of Analysis” and “Aids to Learning” ........................................................... 55 Part Two: Aids to Learning 5. Metaphors ........................................................................ 63 6. Van Creveld’s Rules......................................................... 71 7. Perrow’s Quadrants.......................................................... 89 8. Systems Dynamics.......................................................... 101 9. Genetic Algorithms ........................................................ 111 10. Pattern Recognition ..................................................... 129 Conclusion.......................................................................... 147 i Appendix Clausewitz, Nonlinearity, and the Unpredictability of War Alan Beyerchen .................................................................. 151 From Command in War Martin Van Creveld............................................................. 199 Command and Control at the Crossroads Thomas J. Czerwinski ........................................................ 213 From Complex Systems: The Role of Interactions Robert Jervis ......................................................................... 235 Researchers on Complexity Ponder What It’s All About George Johnson.................................................................. 253 From Center of Gravity Analysis and Chaos Theory Pat Pentland.......................................................................... 261 Catalog of CCRP Publications...................................... CAT-1 ii Foreword or years, the private sector has been immersed in such Fworks as Thriving In Chaos by Tom Peters and The Fifth Dimension by Peter M. Senge. This book is perhaps the first to directly engage the defense establishment along the same lines. The theme of this work is that conventional, or linear, analysis alone is not sufficient to cope with today’s and tomorrow’s problems, just as it was not capable of solving yesterday’s. Its aim is to convince us to augment our efforts with nonlinear insights, and its hope is to provide a basic understanding of what that involves. Murray Gell-Mann, a Nobel Laureate in physics, has defined the challenge: When dealing with any nonlinear system, especially a complex one, it is not sufficient to think of the system in terms of parts or aspects separately, and finally to combine those analyses in an attempt to describe the entire system. Such an approach is not, by itself, a successful way to understand the behavior of the system. In this sense there is truth in the old adage that the whole is more than the sum of its parts.... It is of crucial importance that we learn to supplement those specialized studies with what I call a crude look at the whole. iii Tom Czerwinski brings to this challenge his experience teach- ing nonlinearity to sudents of the National Defense University. He has formulated an approach that calls for intertwining, or meshing, linear and nonlinear reductionist techniques. His terms are “Tools of Analysis” for linear techniques and “Aids to Learning” for nonlinear approaches. The latter are set forth as a means to attain Gell-Mann’s “crude look at the whole.” As you will find, these Aids to Learning are still in the forma- tive stage and very different both in methodology and expectations, requiring new ways of thinking and acting. Nevertheless, I am convinced that the ability to thrive in non- linear environments will have to be among the core competencies of the warrior and stateman of the 21st century if the United States is to maintain its position. It may be that attaining that ability lies at the heart of the Revolution in Mili- tary Affairs that we seem certain is present, but that has proven so elusive. Richard A. Chilcoat Lieutenant General, U.S. Army President, National Defense University iv Acknowledgments am indebted to two now-retired lieutenant generals who I have led the way in introducing nonlinearity to the Defense establishment. The first is LTG Ervin J. Rokke, USAF, formerly president of the National Defense University, whose interest provided me encouragement as only the boss can. The other is Paul K. Van Riper, USMC, a truly visionary leader. My thanks to LTC Bruce DuBlois, USAF, COL Douglas A. Macgregor, USA, LTC Steven M. Rinaldi, USAF, and MAJ John F. Schmitt, USMCR, for reviewing drafts, but more for what I have learned from them as friends and writers. A spe- cial acknowledgment to my colleague LTC Richard L. Casey, USAF, who served as editor-de-facto. Finally, to my lovely wife Sue for her patience during the past year on this book, and the 28 years preceding it. The field of nonlinear studies, including chaos theory and complexity theory, both as pure and applied science, is evolv- ing and has almost as many viewpoints as practitioners. Therefore, anyone proposing, at this date, to interpret the meaning of nonlinearity for national security and military strategy and operations must by necessity assume the provi- sional nature of those efforts, running the risk of being found to be erroneous. I accept these assumptions and have written this work fully conscious of them; being on the one hand, as careful as the limits of my knowledge allow, and on the other, v not allowing them to overly constrain me in the paths where my thoughts on nonlinearity led me. As a teacher, my first obligation is not to pristine precision, but to the sweaty intel- lectual inconvenience of finding a way to get the point across to students without unduly mangling the matter. That is always a judgment call. The result is mine alone, and I am responsible for errors in both fact and interpretation. vi Introduction his book is about the implications of the new nonlinear Tsciences for national security and military affairs. Uncer- tainty is with us, and chaos theory rooted in physics and chemistry tells us why it is inevitable, pervasive, and won’t go away. Fortunately, there is the “companion” new science of complexity, rooted in biology, which provides insights into what we can do about that. I have adopted the term nonlinearity as a convenient umbrella for all of the various terminology and concepts which have proliferated in the field–deterministic chaos, fractals, self-orga- nizing systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium, complex- ity and complex adaptive systems, self-organizing criticality, cellular automata, solitons, and so on–because they all globally share this property. Nonlinearity reflects the science of the Information Age, rather than its technology. Currently, the awareness level about that sci- ence is low in comparison to the omnipresent technology. This book is intended to help correct this dangerous imbalance. In fact, the Information Age and its technology are largely con- sidered to be synonymous in both the public and the military mind. The Revolution in Military Affairs debate to date has largely been shaped by that technology, including the perva- sive rush of chip advances, computer utilities, and an 1 2 Coping with the Bounds increasingly Internetted world. The science is in its infancy, and is more about biology than about physics. It is some 20 years old, and required the computer
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