DOCSLIB.ORG

Understanding Strategic Interaction in the Second Nuclear Age

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Understanding Strategic Interaction in the Second Nuclear Age UNDERSTANDING STRATEGIC INTERACTION IN THE SECOND NUCLEAR AGE THOMAS G. MAHNKEN GILLIAN EVANS TOSHI YOSHIHARA ERIC S. EDELMAN JACK BIANCHI UNDERSTANDING STRATEGIC INTERACTION IN THE SECOND NUCLEAR AGE THOMAS G. MAHNKEN GILLIAN EVANS TOSHI YOSHIHARA ERIC EDELMAN JACK BIANCHI 2019 ABOUT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS (CSBA) The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent, nonpartisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security strategy and investment options. CSBA’s analysis focuses on key questions related to existing and emerging threats to U.S. national security, and its goal is to enable policymakers to make informed decisions on matters of strategy, security policy, and resource allocation. ©2019 Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. All rights reserved. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Thomas G. Mahnken is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He is a Senior Research Professor at the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at The Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and has served for over 20 years as an officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve, to include tours in Iraq and Kosovo. He currently serves as a member of the Congressionally-mandated National Defense Strategy Commission and as a member of the Board of Visitors of Marine Corps University. His previous government career includes service as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy Planning from 2006–2009, where he helped craft the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review and 2008 National Defense Strategy. He served on the staff of the 2014 National Defense Panel, 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel, and the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. He served in the Defense Department’s Office of Net Assessment and as a member of the Gulf War Air Power Survey. In 2009 he was awarded the Secretary of Defense Medal for Outstanding Public Service and in 2016 the Department of the Navy Superior Civilian Service Medal. Gillian Evans is a Senior Analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. At CSBA her work focuses on U.S. national security strategy, nuclear strategy and modernization, and trends in future warfare. Prior to joining CSBA, Gillian worked as a Consultant Analyst in PA Consulting Group’s Federal Defense Strategy practice, supporting projects for the Office of Naval Research and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Her prior experience also includes work for the Afghanistan Policy team at the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and from 2014 to 2015 she served as a fellow at the Lahore University of Management Sciences in Lahore, Pakistan. She has an M.A. in Strategic Studies from Johns Hopkins SAIS and an undergraduate degree from Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service. Toshi Yoshihara is a Senior Fellow at CSBA. Before joining CSBA, Toshi Yoshihara held the John A. van Beuren Chair of Asia-Pacific Studies at the U.S. Naval War College where he taught strategy for over a decade. He was also an affiliate member of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the war college. Dr. Yoshihara has served as a visiting professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, the School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego and the U.S. Air War College. He is the recipient of the Navy Meritorious Civilian Service Award in recognition of his scholarship on maritime and strategic affairs at the Naval War College. His latest book, with James R. Holmes, is the second edition of Red Star over the Pacific: China’s Rise and the Challenge to U.S. Maritime Strategy (Naval Institute Press, 2019). Eric Edelman is Ambassador Eric S. Edelman is Counselor at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He retired as a career minister from the U.S. Foreign Service on May 1, 2009. He has served in senior positions at the Departments of State and Defense as well as the White House, where he led organizations providing analysis, strategy, policy development, security services, trade advocacy, public outreach, citizen services, and congressional relations. As under- secretary of defense for policy (August 2005-January 2009), he was DoD’s senior policy official, overseeing strategy development with global responsibility for bilateral defense relations, war plans, special operations forces, homeland defense, missile defense, nuclear weapons and arms control policies, counterproliferation, counternarcotics, counterterrorism, arms sales, and defense trade controls. He served as U.S. ambassador to Finland in the Clinton administration and Turkey in the Bush administration and was Vice President Cheney’s principal deputy assistant for national security affairs. He was chief of staff to Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, special assistant to Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Robert Kimmitt, and special assistant to Secretary of State George Shultz. His other assignments included the State Department Operations Center, Prague, Moscow, and Tel Aviv, where he was a member of the U.S. Middle East delegation to the West Bank/Gaza autonomy talks. Ambassador Edelman has been awarded the Department of Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joint Distinguished Civilian Service Award, the Presidential Distinguished Service Award, and several Department of State Superior Honor Awards. In 2010, he was named a knight of the French National Order of the Legion of Honor. Ambassador Edelman serves as the Chair of the National Defense Strategy Commission and on the bipartisan board of directors of the United States Institute of Peace. Jack Bianchi is a Senior Analyst at CSBA who focuses on national security strategy and defense issues in the Asia-Pacific region. Mr. Bianchi was previously a Research Analyst at Defense Group Inc. where he performed bilingual (Chinese and English) open source research and analysis for U.S. government clients on Chinese cybersecurity issues and China’s defense-related science and technology development. Mr. Bianchi has working proficiency in Mandarin Chinese and has studied the language at academic programs in both Beijing and Taipei. He co-authored “Warfare Drivers: Mission Needs and the Impact on Ship Design,” a chapter in Chinese Naval Shipbuilding: An Ambitious and Uncertain Course. Mr. Bianchi’s prior experience also includes work at the Department of Justice and in the Office of Investment Security at the Department of the Treasury. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank Hal Brands, Frank Miller, Evan Montgomery, and Travis Sharp for their insightful comments on previous drafts of this monograph, and Kamilla Gunzinger for her editing and publication support. The analysis and findings presented here are solely the respon- sibility of the authors. CSBA receives funding from a broad and diverse group of contributors, including private foundations, government agencies, and corporations. A complete list of these organizations can be found on our website at www.csbaonline.org/about/contributors. Cover: A U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker from the 100th Air Refueling Wing refuels a U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit from the 509th Bomb Wing during a mission that targeted Islamic State training camps in Libya, January 18, 2017. U.S. Air Force Photo by Staff Sgt. Kate Thornton. Contents CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION . 1 The Net Assessment Approach ............................................. 2 Report Structure ....................................................... 4 CHAPTER 2: STRATEGIC INTERACTION . 5 External Sources of Competition ............................................ 5 Internal Sources of Competition ............................................ 8 Thinking About U.S.-Russia-China Strategic Interaction ............................ 9 CHAPTER 3: U .S . STRATEGIC CULTURE & INTERACTION . 11 Early Cold War and the Development of a Deterrence Theory ...................... 12 Late-Cold War, Détente, and the Revitalization of Competitive Strategies .............. 18 Post-Cold War and Current Policy ........................................... 23 Continuity and Change in U.S. Nuclear Policy. 32 Conclusion .......................................................... 38 CHAPTER 4: RUSSIA: STRATEGIC CULTURE AND INTERACTION . 39 Early Cold War and the Threat of Surprise Attack ............................... 40 Late Cold War and the Pursuit of Nuclear Superiority ............................ 42 Post-Cold War and Current Policy ........................................... 45 Continuity and Change in Soviet and Russian Nuclear Policy ....................... 54 Conclusion .......................................................... 57 CHAPTER 5: CHINA: CONTINUITY AND CHANGE IN NUCLEAR POLICY AND STRATEGY. 59 Chinese Nuclear Policy from a Historical Perspective ............................ 60 Continuities in Chinese Nuclear Policy. 64 Potential Sources of Change in Chinese Nuclear Policy ........................... 71 Conclusion .......................................................... 83 CHAPTER 6: IMPLICATIONS . 85 LIST OF ACRONYMS . 89 www.csbaonline.org 1 CHAPTER 1 Introduction The nuclear balance is changing. Whereas the total inventory of nuclear warheads has been decreasing for decades, the number of nuclear powers is increasing. Whereas the nuclear balance throughout
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Beyond Emboldenment Beyond Mark S
    Beyond Emboldenment Beyond Mark S. Bell Emboldenment How Acquiring Nuclear Weapons Can Change Foreign Policy What happens to the foreign policies of states when they acquire nuclear weapons? This question has grown in importance as new nuclear powers have emerged and other states have moved closer to joining the nuclear club. Indeed, determining the costs that the United States and others should be prepared to pay to prevent nuclear proliferation hinges on assessing how nuclear weapons affect the be- havior of the states that acquire them and how dangerous those effects are. If states expand their interests in world politics or act more aggressively in the aftermath of nuclear acquisition, preventing nuclear proliferation should be a higher priority than if nuclear weapons do not signiªcantly affect the for- eign policies of the states that acquire them. Crafting deterrence strategies for new nuclear states also requires understanding the foreign policy effects that nuclear weapons are likely to have in a given case.1 Despite its importance, the question of how nuclear weapons affect the for- eign policies of the states that acquire them has not been satisfactorily an- swered. The literature on nuclear weapons has generally examined the effects of nuclear weapons on outcomes other than foreign policy; has focused on the effects of nuclear weapons on the calculations of other states rather than the acquiring state; and has often sought to explore how states with nuclear weapons should behave rather than how they do behave. The literature that has examined the effects of nuclear weapons on foreign policy has tended to conºate effects of nuclear weapons under catch-all terms such as “em- boldenment” while ignoring other potential effects of nuclear acquisition.
    [Show full text]
  • TNSR and Discusses the Joys and Pains of the Review Process, Giving Some Advice for Both Reviewers and Those Submitting Their Work for Review
    ISSN 2576-1021 ISSN 2576-1153 Print: Online: Texas National Security Review CLARITY & QUAGMIRE Volume 2 Issue 2 MASTHEAD TABLE OF CONTENTS Staff: The Foundation Publisher: Managing Editor: 04 Reviewing Blues Ryan Evans Megan G. Oprea, PhD Assistant Editor: Francis J. Gavin Autumn Brewington Editor-in-Chief: Associate Editors: William Inboden, PhD Galen Jackson, PhD Van Jackson, PhD Stephen Tankel, PhD The Scholar 10 When Do Leaders Change Course? Theories of Success and the American Withdrawal Editorial Board: from Beirut, 1983–1984 Alexandra T. Evans and A. Bradley Potter Chair, Editorial Board: Editor-in-Chief: 40 How to Think About Nuclear Crises Francis J. Gavin, PhD William Inboden, PhD Mark S. Bell and Julia Macdonald Robert J. Art, PhD Beatrice Heuser, PhD Patrick Porter, PhD Richard Betts, PhD Michael C. Horowitz, PhD Thomas Rid, PhD John Bew, PhD Richard H. Immerman, PhD Joshua Rovner, PhD Nigel Biggar, PhD Robert Jervis, PhD Brent E. Sasley, PhD The Strategist Philip Bobbitt, JD, PhD Colin Kahl, PhD Elizabeth N. Saunders, PhD Hal Brands, PhD Jonathan Kirshner, PhD Kori Schake, PhD 68 After the Responsible Stakeholder, What? Debating America’s China Strategy Joshua W. Busby, PhD James Kraska, SJD Michael N. Schmitt, DLitt Hal Brands and Zack Cooper Robert Chesney, JD Stephen D. Krasner, PhD Jacob N. Shapiro, PhD Eliot Cohen, PhD Sarah Kreps, PhD Sandesh Sivakumaran, PhD 82 Crossroads: Counter-terrorism and the Internet Audrey Kurth Cronin, PhD Melvyn P. Leffler, PhD Sarah Snyder, PhD Brian Fishman Theo Farrell, PhD Fredrik Logevall, PhD Bartholomew Sparrow, PhD 102 The End of the End of History: Reimagining U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable, Vol. 7, No. 2 (2014)
    H-Diplo | ISSF Roundtable, Volume VII, No. 2 (2014) A production of H-Diplo with the journals Security Studies, International Security, Journal of Strategic Studies, and the International Studies Association’s Security Studies Section (ISSS). http://www.issforum.org H-Diplo/ISSF Editors: James McAllister and Diane Labrosse H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable and Web/Production Editor: George Fujii Commissioned for H-Diplo/ISSF by James McAllister Introduction by James McAllister Hal Brands. What Good is Grand Strategy: Power and Purpose in American Statecraft from Harry S. Truman to George W. Bush. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2014. ISBN: 978-0- 8014-5246-8 (hardcover, $29.95). Published by H-Diplo/ISSF on 17 October 2014 Stable URL: http://issforum.org/ISSF/PDF/ISSF-Roundtable-7-2.pdf Contents Introduction by James McAllister, Williams College ................................................................ 2 Review by Francis J. Gavin, MIT ................................................................................................ 4 Review by Steven Metz, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute ............................ 8 Review by Joshua Rovner, Southern Methodist University .................................................... 11 Author’s Response by Hal Brands, Duke University ............................................................... 18 © Copyright 2014 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable Reviews, Vol. VII, No. 2
    [Show full text]
  • Understanding Strategic Interaction in the Second Nuclear Age
    UNDERSTANDING STRATEGIC INTERACTION IN THE SECOND NUCLEAR AGE THOMAS G. MAHNKEN GILLIAN EVANS TOSHI YOSHIHARA ERIC S. EDELMAN JACK BIANCHI UNDERSTANDING STRATEGIC INTERACTION IN THE SECOND NUCLEAR AGE THOMAS G. MAHNKEN GILLIAN EVANS TOSHI YOSHIHARA ERIC EDELMAN JACK BIANCHI 2019 ABOUT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS (CSBA) The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent, nonpartisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security strategy and investment options. CSBA’s analysis focuses on key questions related to existing and emerging threats to U.S. national security, and its goal is to enable policymakers to make informed decisions on matters of strategy, security policy, and resource allocation. ©2019 Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. All rights reserved. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Thomas G. Mahnken is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He is a Senior Research Professor at the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at The Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and has served for over 20 years as an officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve, to include tours in Iraq and Kosovo. He currently serves as a member of the Congressionally-mandated National Defense Strategy Commission and as a member of the Board of Visitors of Marine Corps University. His previous government career includes service as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy Planning from 2006–2009, where he helped craft the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review and 2008 National Defense Strategy. He served on the staff of the 2014 National Defense Panel, 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel, and the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction.
    [Show full text]
  • Mar–Apr 2013, Volume 105, Number 4
    SEPT–OCT 2011, v OlumE 104, numb Er 1 m E xi CO C i T y … grav E CO n CE rn S … hubbl E SP a CESC a PES … indian ar T … g E r T rud E himm E lfarb mar–a in theatres march 22nd P r 2013 r mar–aPr 2013, v OlumE 105, numb Er 4 UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO ALUMNI MAGAZINE STREET DATE: FEB/MARCH DUE DATE: 1/22 non-bleed: 6.4375” x 8.825”, 4-Color JANUARY 22, 2013 1:30 PM EST UCH_MAR_APRIL_covers and spine_v4.indd 1 2/25/13 10:40 AM 130315_FocusFeatures_Chicago.indd 1 1/23/13 8:40 AM alumniweekend June –, CELEBRATE EXCEPTIONAL UCHICAGO Register today for Alumni Weekend 2013. • HONOR outstanding achievement at the 72nd Annual Alumni Awards Ceremony. • SHOW YOUR PRIDE in UChicago at the Alumni Parade. • CELEBRATE the academic rigor and challenges that formed your UChicago experience. • REDISCOVER the intellectual destination that is UChicago. Visit alumniweekend.uchicago.edu to register today. uestions? Call 800.955.0065, e-mail [email protected], or visit alumniweekend.uchicago.edu. AlumniIFC_AlumniWeekendAd_4c.indd Weekend Mar-Apr ad_12.11.indd 4 1 2/27/13 11:1811:19 AM Features 32 adrift in the city On walks across Mexico City, historian Mauricio Tenorio Trillo finds a path to the past. By Elizabeth Station 38 decomposure An alumna mortician, medievalist, and video sage tries to change the way Americans think about death. By Michael Washburn, AM’02 46 raised voices The Sahmat collective galvanizes artists across India to create work that Mar–aPr 2013 vOLuME 105, N uMBEr 4 resists divisive politics.
    [Show full text]
  • Copyright by Jonathan Reid Hunt 2013
    Copyright by Jonathan Reid Hunt 2013 The Dissertation Committee for Jonathan Reid Hunt Certifies that this is the approved version of the following dissertation: Into the Bargain: The Triumph and Tragedy of Nuclear Internationalism during the Mid-Cold War, 1958-1970 Committee: Henry W. Brands, Supervisor Mark A. Lawrence, Co-Supervisor Francis J. Gavin Bruce J. Hunt Charters S. Wynn Jeremi Suri Into the Bargain: The Triumph and Tragedy of Nuclear Internationalism during the mid-Cold War, 1958-1970 by Jonathan Reid Hunt, B.A. Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Texas at Austin December 2013 Dedication To my parents, Thomas and Laurie Hunt, and my brother, Tommy, whom I cherish, and whose unconditional support and passion for learning have lighted my path even when my candle burned low. Remember your humanity, and forget the rest. --Russell-Einstein Manifesto, 1955 Acknowledgements At this moment, I cannot help but think back to all those who made this work of scholarship possible. I am struck not only by how instrumental they have been, but how they have constantly made this journey as entertaining as it was challenging and rewarding. When I arrived in the Department of History at the University of Texas at Austin, I had only the faintest idea of what I wanted to study, and an even fainter appreciation for what academic history demanded. I was fortunate to find myself among a cohort of passionate fellow graduate students and under the tutelage of a faculty of warm, patient, and dedicated scholars.
    [Show full text]
  • World Order Power and Strategy.Pdf (9.473Mb)
    Texas Volume 1, Issue 1 December 2017 Print: ISSN 2576-1021 National Online: ISSN 2576-1153 Security Review WORLD ORDER, POWER, & STRATEGY Volume 1 Issue 1 MASTHEAD Staff: Publisher: Managing Editor: Copy Editors: Ryan Evans Megan G. Oprea, PhD Autumn Brewington Sara Gebhardt, PhD Editor-in-Chief: Associate Editors: Katelyn Gough William Inboden, PhD Van Jackson, PhD Stephen Tankel, PhD Celeste Ward Gventer Editorial Board: Chair, Editorial Board: Editor-in-Chief: Francis J. Gavin, PhD William Inboden, PhD Robert J. Art, PhD Beatrice Heuser, PhD John Owen, PhD Richard Betts, PhD Michael C. Horowitz, PhD Thomas Rid, PhD John Bew, PhD Richard H. Immerman, PhD Joshua Rovner, PhD Nigel Biggar, PhD Robert Jervis, PhD Elizabeth N. Saunders, PhD Hal Brands, PhD Colin Kahl, PhD Kori Schake, PhD Joshua W. Busby, PhD Jonathan Kirshner, PhD Michael N. Schmitt, JD Robert Chesney, JD James Kraska, JD Jacob N. Shapiro, PhD Eliot Cohen, PhD Stephen D. Krasner, PhD Sandesh Sivakumaran, PhD Audrey Kurth Cronin, PhD Sarah Kreps, PhD Sarah Snyder, PhD Theo Farrell, PhD Melvyn P. Leffler, PhD Bartholomew Sparrow, PhD Peter D. Feaver, PhD Fredrik Logevall, PhD Monica Duffy Toft, PhD Rosemary Foot, PhD, FBA Margaret MacMillan, CC, PhD Marc Trachtenberg, PhD Taylor Fravel, PhD Thomas G. Mahnken, PhD René Värk, SJD Sir Lawrence Freedman, PhD Rose McDermott, PhD Steven Weber, PhD James Goldgeier, PhD Paul D. Miller, PhD Amy Zegart, PhD Michael J. Green, PhD Vipin Narang, PhD Kelly M. Greenhill, PhD Janne E. Nolan, PhD Policy and Strategy Advisory Board: Chair: Adm. William McRaven, Ret. Hon. Elliott Abrams, JD Hon.
    [Show full text]
  • North Korea and Asia's Evolving Nuclear Landscape
    the national bureau of asian research nbr special report #67 | august 2017 north korea and asia’s evolving nuclear landscape Challenges to Regional Stability By Aaron L. Friedberg, Robert Jervis, J. James Kim, Jina Kim, Matthew Kroenig, Sugio Takahashi, Michito Tsuruoka, and Christopher Twomey cover 2 NBR Board of Directors Charles W. Brady Richard J. Ellings Matt Salmon (Chairman) President Vice President of Government Affairs Chairman Emeritus NBR Arizona State University Invesco LLC Ryo Kubota Gordon Smith John V. Rindlaub Chairman, President, and CEO Chief Operating Officer (Vice Chairman and Treasurer) Acucela Inc. Exact Staff, Inc. President, Asia Pacific Wells Fargo Quentin W. Kuhrau Scott Stoll Chief Executive Officer Partner George Davidson Unico Properties LLC Ernst & Young LLP (Vice Chairman) Vice Chairman, M&A, Asia-Pacific Melody Meyer David K.Y. Tang HSBC Holdings plc (Ret.) President Managing Partner, Asia Melody Meyer Energy LLC K&L Gates LLP George F. Russell Jr. (Chairman Emeritus) Joseph M. Naylor Chairman Emeritus Vice President of Policy, Government Honorary Directors Russell Investments and Public Affairs Chevron Corporation Lawrence W. Clarkson Dennis Blair Senior Vice President Chairman C. Michael Petters The Boeing Company (Ret.) Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA President and Chief Executive Officer Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. Thomas E. Fisher U.S. Navy (Ret.) Senior Vice President Maria Livanos Cattaui Kenneth B. Pyle Unocal Corporation (Ret.) Secretary General (Ret.) Professor; Founding President University of Washington; NBR Joachim Kempin International Chamber of Commerce Senior Vice President William M. Colton Jonathan Roberts Microsoft Corporation (Ret.) Vice President Founder and Partner Ignition Partners Clark S. Kinlin Corporate Strategic Planning President and Chief Executive Officer Exxon Mobil Corporation Tom Robertson Corning Cable Systems Norman D.
    [Show full text]
  • Beyond Emboldenment: How Acquiring Nuclear Weapons Can Change Foreign Policy
    Beyond Emboldenment: How Acquiring Nuclear Weapons Can Change Foreign Policy The MIT Faculty has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters. Citation Bell, Mark S. “Beyond Emboldenment: How Acquiring Nuclear Weapons Can Change Foreign Policy.” International Security 40, no. 1 (July 2015): 87–119. © 2015 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology As Published http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00204 Publisher MIT Press Version Final published version Citable link http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100497 Terms of Use Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. Beyond Emboldenment Beyond Mark S. Bell Emboldenment How Acquiring Nuclear Weapons Can Change Foreign Policy What happens to the foreign policies of states when they acquire nuclear weapons? This question has grown in importance as new nuclear powers have emerged and other states have moved closer to joining the nuclear club. Indeed, determining the costs that the United States and others should be prepared to pay to prevent nuclear proliferation hinges on assessing how nuclear weapons affect the be- havior of the states that acquire them and how dangerous those effects are. If states expand their interests in world politics or act more aggressively in the aftermath of nuclear acquisition, preventing nuclear proliferation should be a higher priority than if nuclear weapons do not signiªcantly affect the for- eign policies of the states that acquire them.
    [Show full text]
  • H-Diplo Roundtable, Vol
    2017 H-Diplo Roundtable Editors: Thomas Maddux and Diane Labrosse @HDiplo Roundtable and Web Production Editor: George Fujii Introduction by Thomas Maddux Roundtable Review Volume XIX, No. 3 (2017) 18 September 2017 Charles S. Maier. Once Within Borders: Territories of Power, Wealth, and Belonging since 1500. Cambridge: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2016. ISBN: 9780674059788 (hardcover, $29.95/£23.95/€27.00). URL: http://www.tiny.cc/Roundtable-XIX-3 Contents Introduction by Thomas Maddux, California State University Northridge, Emeritus ................2 Review by Francis J. Gavin, SAIS-Johns Hopkins University ................................................................5 Review by Daniel Immerwahr, Northwestern University .....................................................................8 Review by Walter A. McDougall, University of Pennsylvania .......................................................... 11 Review by James B. Steinberg, Syracuse University ............................................................................ 15 Author’s Response by Charles S. Maier, Harvard University ............................................................ 18 © 2017 The Authors. Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States License. H-Diplo Roundtable Review, Vol. XIX, No. 3 (2017) Introduction by Thomas Maddux, California State University Northridge, Emeritus harles S. Maier began his impressive career as a historian specializing in modern Europe with an orientation toward comparative studies as evidenced by books starting with Recasting Bourgeois C Europe: Stabilization in France, Germany, and Italy in the Decade after World War I. He continued with studies on twentieth-century Europe, culminating in Dissolution: The Crisis of Communism and the End of East Germany but also expanded his comparative focus to international history, most notably in Among Empires: American Ascendancy and Its Predecessors. In that study, Maier explores the rise of the United States to dominance, tracing the key elements that shaped the U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Why Nuclear Energy Programs Rarely Lead to Proliferation
    Nuclear Energy Programs and Proliferation Why Nuclear Energy Nicholas L. Miller Programs Rarely Lead to Proliferation As long as there have been nuclear weapons, policymakers and analysts have worried that the spread of nuclear reactors for energy production would lead to the diffusion of nuclear arms.1 According to one analyst, “It was obvious from the beginning of the nuclear age that nuclear energy for power and nuclear energy for bombs overlapped.”2 Indeed, the 1946 Acheson-Lilienthal report, which examined the possibility of international control of nuclear technology, determined that “the industry required and the technology developed for the realization of atomic weapons are the same industry and same technology which play so es- sential a part in man’s almost universal striving to improve his standard of liv- ing and his control of nature.”3 Writing in the 1970s, Nuclear Regulatory Commissioner Victor Gilinsky warned that nuclear energy programs offer “the quickest, cheapest, and least risky route to nuclear weapons.”4 More recently, José Goldemberg argued that there is a “fundamental contradiction between efforts to avoid the proliferation of nuclear weapons and enthusiasm for the spread, for commercial reasons, of nuclear reactors to many developing coun- tries.”5 Today, some analysts worry that the upsurge in interest in nuclear energy in the Middle East is a prelude to a nuclear arms race.6 Nicholas L. Miller is Assistant Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. For helpful comments and suggestions, the author thanks Mark Bell, Stephen Biddle, Matthew Bunn, Christopher Clary, Erik Gartzke, Francis Gavin, Eliza Gheorghe, Charles Glaser, Christo- pher Lawrence, Martin Malin, Vipin Narang, Joshua Rovner, Scott Sagan, Gary Samore, Elizabeth Saunders, Alec Worsnop, the anonymous reviewers, and seminar participants at Cornell, Harvard, George Washington, and Yale Universities, as well as participants at the 2015 Nuclear Studies Re- search Initiative Conference.
    [Show full text]
  • ISS Forum 21
    H-Diplo | ISSF Forum, No. 21 (2019) Editors: Thomas Maddux and Diane Labrosse Web and Production Editor: George Fujii Forum on “Global Nuclear Order.” Diplomacy & Statecraft 29:1 (March 2018): 1-142. Published on 21 June 2019 https://issforum.org/to/Forum21 Contents Introduction by Francis J. Gavin, SAIS-Johns Hopkins University .......................................... 2 Review by Philipp C. Bleek, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey ....... 5 Review by Michael Cohen, Australian National University ..................................................... 9 Review by Anne I. Harrington, Cardiff University .................................................................. 15 Review by Nicola Leveringhaus, King’s College London ...................................................... 21 Response by Joseph Siracusa, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Melbourne, Australia .............................................................................................................. 26 © Copyright 2019 The Authors | H-Diplo/ISSF Forum 21 (2019) Introduction by Francis J. Gavin, SAIS-Johns Hopkins University uclear strategy can be a difficult subject to study. In the end, our main preoccupation is understanding why there has not been a thermonuclear war, and what we can do to continue this N streak. It is close to impossible to craft definite statements about an event that never happened. We have a strong hunch that nuclear deterrence prevents other states from using their weapons. Deterrence, however, is based on characteristics—fear, resolve, assurance—that are psychological in nature, and hard to observe or measure except after deterrence has failed. Nuclear proliferation and nonproliferation can be equally confounding. Given the benefits that nuclear possession supposedly conveys upon states—more or less securing their independence and protecting them from invasion—the fact that the number of states possessing the bomb is in the single digits, far fewer than anyone would have predicted a half century ago, is surprising.
    [Show full text]