Faculty, Fellows, and Staff

Faculty and Senior Researchers Affiliates

Fotini Christia [email protected] Jonathan Caverley [email protected] Owen Cote, Jr. [email protected] Fiona Cunningham [email protected] M. Taylor Fravel [email protected] Peter Dutton [email protected] Eric Heginbotham [email protected] Jennifer L. Erickson [email protected] Erik Lin-Greenberg [email protected] Francis Gavin [email protected] Vipin Narang [email protected] Eugene Gholz [email protected] Richard Nielsen [email protected] Kelly M. Greenhill [email protected] Roger Petersen [email protected] Phil Haun [email protected] Barry R. Posen [email protected] Colin Jackson colin.jackson.wg99@wharton. Richard J. Samuels [email protected] upenn.edu Harvey M. Sapolsky [email protected] Peter Krause [email protected] (Emeritus) Nicholas Miller [email protected] Stephen Van Evera [email protected] Daryl Press [email protected] Jim Walsh [email protected] Joshua Shifrinson [email protected] Jonathan (Yoni) Shimshoni [email protected] Caitlin Talmadge [email protected] Senior Advisors Cindy Williams [email protected]

Robert Art [email protected] Joel Brenner [email protected] Staff Carol R. Saivetz [email protected] Joli Divon Saraf [email protected] Assistant Director Lynne Levine [email protected] SSP Webmaster Administrative Assistant Brittany Logan [email protected] Social media & communications coordinator Andrew Ortendahl [email protected] Conferences and Events Administrative Assistant Fatima Zahra Amjad [email protected] Special Seminars and Events Administrative Assistant People

46 Faculty and Senior Researchers

Fotini Christia joined the MIT faculty in M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth 2008 upon graduating with a PhD in Public Sloan Professor of Political Science at MIT Policy from Harvard University. She was and Director of the MIT Security Studies an Andrew Carnegie inaugural fellow and Program. Fravel studies international relations, a Harvard Academy fellow. Christia has with a focus on international security, China, done extensive experimental, survey and and East Asia. His books include Strong ethnographic fieldwork on conflict, identity, Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and and development in divided societies in the Muslim world. She is Conflict in China’s Territorial Disputes (Princeton University presently working on projects around computation and conflict Press, 2008) and Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy Since on sectarianism in Iraq, refugee return in Syria and violence and 1949 (Princeton University Press, 2019). His other publications displacement in Yemen. Fotini is the author of Alliance Formation have appeared in International Security, Foreign Affairs, Security in Civil War, published by Cambridge University Press in 2012, Studies, International Studies Review, The China Quarterly, The which received the Luebbert Award for Best Book in Comparative Washington Quarterly, Journal of Strategic Studies, Armed Forces Politics, the Lepgold Prize for Best Book in International Relations & Society, Current History, Asian Survey, Asian Security, China and the Distinguished Book Award of the Ethnicity, Nationalism, Leadership Monitor, and Contemporary Southeast Asia. Fravel and Migration Section of the International Studies Association. is a graduate of Middlebury College and Stanford University, Her articles have been published in Science, the Review of where he received his PhD He also has graduate degrees from Economic Studies, American Political Science Review, Journal of the London School of Economics and Oxford University, where Development Economics, and Annual Review of Political Science, he was a Rhodes Scholar. In 2016, he was named an Andrew among other journals. Her opinion pieces have appeared in Carnegie Fellow by the Carnegie Corporation. Fravel is a member venues such as Foreign Affairs, The New York Times and The of the board of directors of the National Committee on U.S.-China Washington Post. For her research, Fotini has received support Relations and serves as the Principal Investigator for the Maritime from the World Bank, USAID, the UN’s World Food Program Awareness Project. and the World Bank, among other funders. She graduated magna cum laude with a joint BA in Economics-Operations Eric Heginbotham is a principal research Research from Columbia College and a Masters in International scientist at MIT’s Security Studies Program Affairs from the School of International and Public Affairs at and a specialist in Asian security issues. Columbia University. Before joining MIT, he was a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where Owen R. Cote, Jr. joined the MIT Security he led research projects on China, Japan, Studies Program in 1997 as Associate and regional security issues. Prior to that Director. Prior to that he was Assistant he was a Senior Fellow of Asian Studies at the Council on Director of the International Security Program Foreign Relations. After graduating from Swarthmore College, at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and Heginbotham earned his PhD in political science from MIT. He is International Affairs, where he remains co- fluent in Chinese and Japanese, and was a Captain in the U.S. editor of the Center’s journal, International Army Reserve. Security. He received his PhD from MIT, where he specialized in U.S. defense policy and international security affairs. He the Heginbotham is a co-editor, China Steps Out: Beijing’s Major author of The Third Battle: Innovation in the U.S. Navy’s Silent Power Engagement with the Developing World (Routledge, Cold War Struggle with Soviet Submarines, a book analyzing the 2018), a co-author of Chinese and Indian Strategic Behavior, sources of the U.S. Navy’s success in its Cold War antisubmarine and was the lead author of China’s Evolving Nuclear Deterrent warfare effort, and a coauthor of Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy: (RAND, 2017) and U.S.-China Military Scorecard (RAND, 2015). Containing the Threat of Loose Russian Nuclear Weapons and Heginbotham has published numerous articles in Foreign Affairs, Fissile Material. He has written on the sources of innovation in International Security, Washington Quarterly and elsewhere. He is military doctrine, the future of war, nuclear and conventional force currently working on a book on Japanese military strategy. structure issues, and the threat of nuclear terrorism.

47 Erik Lin-Greenberg is an Assistant Oxford University, where he studied on a Marshall Scholarship. Professor of Political Science at MIT. His He has been a fellow at Harvard University’s Olin Institute for research examines how emerging military Strategic Studies, a predoctoral fellow at Harvard University’s technology affects conflict dynamics and Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and a Stanton the regulation and use of force. In his book junior faculty fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International project, he leverages experimental methods, Security and Cooperation. His research interests include nuclear archival research, elite interviews, and surveys proliferation and strategy, North Korea’s nuclear weapons, South to study how remote warfighting technologies – like drones and Asian security, and general security studies. cyber warfare – shape crisis escalation. In other ongoing projects, he explores how technology and public opinion influence alliance Richard Nielsen is an Associate Professor politics and decisions on the use of force. He is also interested in of Political Science at MIT. He completed the role of food in international politics. his PhD (Government) and AM (Statistics) at Harvard University, and holds a BA from His work has appeared in a variety of academic and policy Brigham Young University. His first book, outlets including Security Studies, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Deadly Clerics: Blocked Ambition and the International Peacekeeping, The Washington Post, Foreign Policy, Paths to Jihad (Cambridge University Press) and War on the Rocks. He was previously a postdoctoral fellow at uses statistical text analysis and fieldwork in Cairo mosques to the University of Pennsylvania, and a Carnegie Predoctoral Fellow understand the radicalization of jihadi clerics in the Arab world. at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Nielsen also writes on international law, the political economy Cooperation. of human rights, political violence, and political methodology. Some of this work is published or forthcoming in The American He completed his PhD in Political Science at Columbia University, Journal of Political Science, International Studies Quarterly, and an M.S. and B.S. in Political Science from the Massachusetts Political Analysis, and Sociological Methods and Research. His Institute of Technology. Before entering academia, he was an research has been supported by an Andrew Carnegie Fellowship, active duty officer in the United States Air Force and continued to the National Science Foundation, the Harvard Academy for serve on the Joint Staff as a member of the Air Force Reserve. International and Area Studies, and the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Vipin Narang is the Frank Stanton Professor of Nuclear Security and Political Science and Roger Petersen is the Arthur and Ruth member of the Security Studies Program at Sloan Professor of Political Science. He the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. holds BA, MA, and PhD degrees from the University of Chicago and has taught at MIT His first book Nuclear Strategy in the Modern since 2001. Petersen focuses on within- Era (Princeton University Press, 2014) on the state conflict and violence. He has written deterrence strategies of regional nuclear powers won the 2015 three books: Resistance and Rebellion: ISA International Security Studies Section Best Book Award. Lessons from Eastern Europe (Cambridge University Press, 2001), His second book Seeking the Bomb: Strategies of Nuclear Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, Resentment in Proliferation is forthcoming with Princeton University Press. His Twentieth Century Eastern Europe (Cambridge University Press, work has appeared in a variety of outlets including International 2002), and Western Intervention in the Balkans: The Strategic Use Security, Journal of Conflict Resolution, The Washington Quarterly, of Emotion in Conflict (Cambridge University Press, 2011). He International Organization, Foreign Affairs, The Washington Post, is currently finishing a manuscript on the conflict in Iraq entitled and The New York Times. He was the recipient of the 2020 Violence, Domination, and State-Building: The US in Iraq and the ISSS Emerging Scholar Award from the International Studies Future of American Military Intervention. He teaches courses on Association awarded to the scholar who “had made the most military intervention, civil-military relations, politics and conflict in significant contribution to the field of security studies.” the Balkans and the Middle East, and emotions and politics.

He received his Ph.D. from the Department of Government, Harvard University in 2010. He holds a B.S. and M.S. in chemical engineering with distinction from Stanford University and an M. People Phil with Distinction in international relations from Balliol College, 48 Barry R. Posen is Ford International the summer. His study of the political and policy consequences Professor of Political Science at MIT, former of the 2011 Tohoku catastrophe, 3:11: Disaster and Change Director of the MIT Security Studies Program, in Japan, was published by Cornell University Press in 2013. and serves on the Executive Committee of Samuels’ Securing Japan: Tokyo’s Grand Strategy and the Future Seminar XXI. He is the author of, Restraint: of East Asia, was a finalist for the Lionel Gelber Prize for the A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy best book in international affairs. Machiavelli’s Children won the (Cornell University Press 2014), Inadvertent Marraro Prize from the Society for Italian Historical Studies and the Escalation: Conventional War and Nuclear Risks (Cornell Jervis-Schroeder Prize from the International History and Politics University Press 1991), and The Sources of Military Doctrine section of American Political Science Association. Earlier books (Cornell University Press 1984). The latter won two awards: were awarded prizes from the Association for Asian Studies, the The American Political Science Association’s Woodrow Wilson Association of American University Press, and the Ohira Memorial Foundation Book Award, and Ohio State University’s Edward Foundation. His articles have appeared in Foreign Affairs, J. Furniss Jr. Book Award. He is also the author of numerous International Security, Political Science Quarterly, International articles, including “Europe Can Defend Itself,” Survival, December, Organization, Journal of Modern Italian Studies, National Interest, 2020, “The Rise of Illiberal Hegemony—Trump’s Surprising Journal of Japanese Studies, and Daedalus. His history of the Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2018, “It’s Time to Japanese intelligence community, Special Duty, was named one Make Afghanistan Someone Else’s Problem,” The Atlantic, 2017, of the “Best of Books 2019” by Foreign Affairs, and its translation “Contain ISIS,” The Atlantic, 2015, “Pull Back: The Case for a has been an Amazon best seller in Japan since its publication by Less Activist Foreign Policy,” Foreign Affairs, January/February Nikkei Books in 2021. 2013, and “Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony,” International Security, Summer, 2003. He is Harvey M. Sapolsky is Professor of Public a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. In 2016 Policy and Organization, Emeritus, and he was appointed the visiting Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Foreign former Director of the MIT Security Studies Policy and International Relations at the Library of Congress, John Program. Professor Sapolsky completed W. Kluge Center. He is the 2017 recipient of the International his BA at Boston University and a MPA and Security Studies Section (ISSS), International Studies Association, PhD (Political Economy and Government) Distinguished Scholar Award, and in 2019 received The Notre at Harvard University. He has worked in a Dame International Security Center’s Lifetime Achievement number of public policy areas, including health, science, and Award. He has been a Council on Foreign Relations International defense, and specializes in analyzing the effects of institutional Affairs Fellow; Rockefeller Foundation International Affairs Fellow; structures and bureaucratic politics on policy outcomes. He has Guest Scholar at the Center for Strategic and International been a visiting professor at the University of Michigan and the Studies; Woodrow Wilson Center Fellow, Smithsonian Institution; U. S. Military Academy at West Point. In the defense field he has Transatlantic Fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United served as a consultant or panel member for the Commission on States; and a Visiting Fellow at the John Sloan Dickey Center at Government Procurement, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Dartmouth College. the Office of Naval Research, the Naval War College, the U. S. Army, Draper Laboratory, the RAND Corporation, John Hopkins’ Richard Samuels is Ford International Applied Physics Laboratory, the National Research Council, the Professor of Political Science and director Department of Energy, and the Department of Veterans Affairs. He of the Center for International Studies. He remains interested in U.S. defense politics, military innovation, the has been head of the MIT Political Science structure of the defense industry, and the strategy of restraint. Department, Vice-Chair of the Committee on Japan of the National Research Council, Stephen Van Evera is Ford International and Chair of the Japan- U.S. Friendship Professor in the MIT Political Science Commission. He has also been elected to the American Academy Department. Van Evera works in several of Arts & Sciences and was awarded an imperial decoration, the areas of international relations: the causes Order of the Rising Sun, Gold and Silver Star by the Emperor of and prevention of war, U.S. foreign policy, Japan and the Japanese Prime Minister. From 2014 to 2019 he U.S. security policy, U.S. intervention in the was an Einstein Visiting Fellow at the Free University of Berlin, Third World, international relations of the where he directed a research group on East Asian Security during Middle East, and international relations theory. He has published

49 Senior Advisors

books on the causes of war and on social science methodology, Robert Art is Professor Emeritus at Brandeis University. He and articles on American foreign policy, American defense policy, directed MIT’s Seminar XXI Program from academic year 2000- nationalism and the causes of war, the origins of World War I, and 2001 through academic year 2019-2020. Professor Art earned U.S. strategy in the War on Terror. a BA from Columbia College in 1964 and a PhD from Harvard University in 1968. His published work centers on American Jim Walsh is a Senior Research Associate at foreign policy and national security affairs. the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Security Studies Program (SSP). Walsh’s Joel Brenner is a senior research fellow at MIT’s Center for research and writings focus on international International Studies, where his work concerns international security, and in particular, topics involving conflict in the gray zone between war and peace and the nuclear weapons, the Middle East, and protection of the electronic networks that control critical East Asia. Walsh has testified before the infrastructure. United States Senate and House of Representatives on issues of nuclear terrorism, Iran, and North Korea. He is one of a handful In government, Brenner was Senior Counsel at the National of Americans to travel to both Iran and North Korea for talks with Security Agency (2009-2010), advising Agency leadership on officials about nuclear issues. His recent writings include “The the public-private effort to create better Internet security; the Implications of the JCPOA for Future Verification Arrangements head of U.S. counterintelligence under the Director of National (including the DPRK),” “The Digital Communications Revolution: Intelligence (2009-2010); and NSA’s Inspector General (2002- Lessons for the Nuclear Policy Community,” and “Laser 2006), responsible for that agency’s top-secret internal audits Enrichment and Proliferation: Assessing Future Risks.” In 2021, and investigations. Early in his career he was a prosecutor in the Dr. Walsh and his team received a major grant from the Carnegie Justice Department’s Antitrust Division. He has extensive trial and Corporation of New York for a project examining communication arbitration experience in a long career in private law practice in about nuclear weapons and international security on social Washington. media. He is the international security contributor to the NPR program “Here and Now,” and his comments and analysis have Brenner is a director of Nokia of America Corporation, a member appeared in the New York Times, the New York Review of Books, of the board of managers of Endgame Systems LLC, and a Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, and member of the Intelligence Community Studies Board. He holds numerous other national and international media outlets. Before a JD from Harvard Law School, a PhD from the London School coming to MIT, Walsh was Executive Director of the Managing of Economics and Political Science, and a BA from the University the Atom project at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Wisconsin-Madison. He is an advisor to the American of Government and a visiting scholar at the Center for Global Bar Association’s Standing Committee on Law and National Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He Security and is the author of America The Vulnerable: Inside has taught at both Harvard University and MIT. Dr. Walsh received the New Threat Matrix of Digital Espionage, Crime and Warfare, his PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. in paperback as Glass Houses: Privacy, Secrecy, and Cyber Insecurity in a Transparent World.

Carol Saivetz is a Senior Advisor in the MIT Security Studies Program. She is also a Research Associate at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute. She holds an M.I.A., M.Phil., and a PhD from Columbia University in Political Science and a certificate from what is now the Harriman Institute at Columbia. Between 1995-2005, she was the Executive Director of the American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies and between 1992-2006 she was a Lecturer in Government at Harvard. She is currently teaching Russian Foreign Policy in the Political Science Department at MIT. Professor Saivetz has consulted for the U.S. Government on topics ranging from energy politics in the Caspian and Black Sea regions, questions of stability in Central Asia, to People

50 Research Affiliates

Russian policy toward Iran. She is the author and contributing Jonathan Caverley is Professor of Strategy at the U.S. Naval co-editor of 5 books and numerous articles on Soviet and now War College and Research Scientist in Political Science and Russian foreign policy issues, including an assessment of the Security Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He “reset,” Russian policies toward the other Soviet successor is currently examining how states use the international arms trade states, and current U.S.-Russian relations. Her current research and training of foreign militaries as tools of influence. His newest interest is energy competition in and around the Black Sea region project explores civil-military relations during small wars, with an and Russian-Turkish relations. Her most recent publications emphasis on the rhetoric of national security threats. His book, analyze the newly resurgent Russia’s policies—including energy Democratic Militarism: Voting, Wealth, and War, examines the politics, reactions to EU and NATO expansion, and Russian distribution of the costs of security within democracies, and its involvement in the current conflicts in the Post-Soviet state. contribution to military aggressiveness. She has also published opinion pieces on the Ukraine crisis, Russian intervention in Syria, and Russian approaches to the Prior to his MIT appointment, he was Assistant Professor of conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh for the Lawfare Blog (Brookings) Political Science at Northwestern, where he founded and co- and commented on Ukraine, Syria, and the most recent U.S.- chaired the Working Group on Security Studies at the Roberta Russian summit for local radio and TV. She is the co-chair of the Buffett Center for International and Comparative Studies. He has MIT seminar series “Focus on Russia,” sponsored by the MIT also been a residential fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Security Studies Program, the Center for International Studies, Center for Scholars, in Washington, D.C. Caverley previously and MIT-Russia. served eight years as a submarine officer in the U.S. Navy and as an Assistant Professor of Naval Science at Northwestern University, where he taught undergraduate classes in Naval Engineering and in Leadership and Management. His PhD and M.P.P. are from the University of Chicago, and he received his A.B. in History and Literature from Harvard College.

Fiona Cunningham is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. Her research interests lie at the intersection of technology and conflict, with an empirical focus on China. Fiona’s current book project explains how and why China threatens to use space weapons, cyber attacks and conventional missiles as substitutes for nuclear threats in limited wars. Her research has been published in International Security, Security Studies,The Washington Quarterly, and elsewhere. She has received funding from the Stanton Foundation, Smith Richardson Foundation, and the China Confucius Studies Program. Fiona has held fellowships at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, the Belfer Center at Harvard University, the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Fiona received her Ph.D. in Political Science from MIT in 2018. From 2019 to 2021, she was an Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the George Washington University.

Peter Alan Dutton, J.D., PhD, is Professor of Strategic Studies in the Strategic and Operational Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College. He is also a retired U.S. Navy Commander. Professor Dutton’s research focuses on Chinese views of sovereignty and international law and how those views are shaped by geostrategic and historical factors. He advises senior officials and military leaders across the government and has testified

51 before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House of two books: Buying Military Transformation: Technological Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees. Dutton is a Innovation and the Defense Industry, and U.S. Defense Politics: retired Navy Judge Advocate and former Naval Flight Officer. He The Origins of Security Policy (4th edition, 2021). He served holds a J.D. from the College of William and Mary and a PhD as chair of the international security section of the International from King’s College London. He is also an Adjunct Professor of Studies Association (2019-2021) and is a member of the Council Law at NYU School of Law and a Senior Research Fellow at the on Foreign Relations. He previously held faculty positions at the U.S.-Asia Law Institute there. He is an Associate in Research at University of Texas at Austin, Williams College, the University of Harvard University’s Fairbank Center for China Studies. Kentucky, and George Mason University. His Ph.D. is from MIT.

Jennifer L. Erickson is an Associate Professor of Political Kelly M. Greenhill is an Associate Professor at Tufts University Science and International Studies at Boston College. Her research and Research Fellow at Harvard University’s Kennedy School deals with international security and arms control, sanctions and of Government. Greenhill holds an SM and a PhD from MIT, a arms embargoes, and the conventional arms trade. Her first book, CSS from Harvard, and a BA from UC Berkeley. She has held Dangerous Trade: Conventional Arms Exports, Human Rights, fellowships at Stanford’s Center for Security and Cooperation, and International Reputation, explains states’ commitment to and at Harvard’s Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, and at Harvard’s compliance with multilateral arms export criteria. Her current book Belfer Center. Greenhill is author of Weapons of Mass Migration: project examines the creation of laws and norms of war around Forced Displacement, Coercion, and Foreign Policy (Cornell new weapons technologies, and she is participating in a two- Studies in Security Affairs; Kopp-Verlag and LEG Edizioni)— year project on the relationship between armed conflict and arms winner of the 2011 International Studies Association Best Book exports with the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University. She of the Year Award; and coauthor and co-editor of Sex, Drugs, has previously been a Nuclear Security Faculty Fellow at Stanford and Body Counts: The Politics of Numbers in Global Crime and University; a faculty affiliate at Harvard University; a Postdoctoral Conflict (Cornell University Press); The Use of Force: Military Fellow at Dartmouth College; and a research fellow at the Stiftung Power and International Politics, 8th ed. (Rowman and Littlefield); Wissenschaft und Politik and the Wissenchaftszentrum in Berlin. and Coercion: The Power to Hurt in International Politics (Oxford She received her PhD in Government from Cornell University. University Press, 2018). Her research has also appeared in a variety of journals, including International Security, Security Francis Gavin is the Giovanni Agnelli Distinguished Professor Studies, International Studies Quarterly, Civil Wars, European and the inaugural director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Law Journal and International Migration, as well as in media Global Affairs at SAIS-Johns Hopkins University. In 2013, Gavin outlets, such as the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, was appointed the first Frank Stanton Chair in Nuclear Security Foreign Affairs, the BBC, and in briefs prepared for the U.S. Policy Studies and Professor of Political Science at MIT. Before Supreme Court and other organs of the U.S. government. As a joining MIT, he was the Tom Slick Professor of International Affairs 2017 National Endowment for the Humanities Fellow, Greenhill and the Director of the Robert S. Strauss Center for International is currently completing a new book, a multi-method, cross- Security and Law at the University of Texas. Gavin is the Chairman national study of “extra-factual” sources of threat conception and of the Board of Editors of the Texas National Security Review. proliferation. His writings include Gold, Dollars, and Power: The Politics of International Monetary Relations, 1958-1971 and Nuclear Phil Haun is Dean of Academics and Professor at the U.S. Naval Statecraft: History and Strategy in America’s Atomic Age. His War College. His research interest focuses on coercion and latest book, Nuclear Weapons and American Grand Strategy, was airpower theory. His next book Air Power in the Age of Primacy: published by Brookings Institution Press in 2020. Air Warfare Since the Cold War will be published by Cambridge University Press later this year and his latest article “Foundation Eugene Gholz is an associate professor of political science Bias: The Impact of the Air Corps Tactical School on United States at the University of Notre Dame, on leave in 2021 as a visiting Air Force Doctrine” is just out in the Journal of Military History. Phil fellow at the Defense Priorities Foundation. He works primarily is a retired Air Force Colonel and A-10 “Warthog” pilot. at the intersection of national security and economic policy, on subjects including innovation, defense management, and U.S. Colin F. Jackson is the Chairman of the Strategic and grand strategy. From 2010-2012, he served in the Pentagon as Operational Research Department (SORD) at the U.S. Naval War Senior Advisor to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for College. He oversees the work of a range of research groups Manufacturing and Industrial Base Policy. He is the coauthor focused on contemporary functional and regional challenges in People

52 the maritime domain. These research groups include the China Nicholas Miller is an Associate Professor of Government at Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI), the Russia Maritime Studies Dartmouth College. His research focuses on nuclear weapons Institute (RMSI), the Advanced Research Programs (Halsey A, proliferation and has been published in a variety of scholarly Halsey B, Gravely, and Holloway), the Cyber and Innovation Policy journals, including the American Political Science Review, Institute (CIPI), and the Brodie Group. International Organization, International Security, International Studies Quarterly, and Security Studies. His book manuscript, Jackson served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Stopping the Bomb: The Sources and Effectiveness of U.S. for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia (2017-2019), Nonproliferation Policy, was published by Cornell University Press overseeing all strategy, security cooperation, budget oversight, in 2018. Miller’s commentary on public affairs has appeared at in and contingency planning. He also served as the senior DOD Foreign Affairs, Lawfare, The National Interest, Politico, War on the representative to the U.S.-Taliban peace talks. From 2006-2017, Rocks, and The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage. He received his he was a Professor in the Strategy Department and later Director PhD in Political Science from MIT. From 2014 to 2017, he was an of the Advanced Strategist Program. He also taught courses in Assistant Professor of Political Science at Brown University. strategy and counterinsurgency at MIT and Columbia. In 2011, he deployed in uniform to Afghanistan as Executive Officer for Policy Daryl Press (MIT PhD 2001) is an Associate Professor of Planning for the Deputy Chief of Staff, Operations, USFOR-A. Government at Dartmouth College. His research focuses on Before entering academia, he worked in private sector financial U.S. foreign policy, deterrence, and the future of war. Press has trading and power development. published numerous articles and two books: Calculating Credibility (2005), which examines how leaders assess the credibility of Jackson holds degrees from Princeton University (BA, 1992), adversaries’ threats during crises. In his second book, The Myth Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of the Nuclear Revolution (2020), he and Keir Lieber use evidence (MA, 1999), the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School from the past seven decades to explore the central puzzle of the (MBA, 1999), and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology nuclear age: why international politics remains so competitive (PhD, 2008). despite the security that nuclear weapons give their owners. Their answers shed critical light on the critical nuclear deterrence Peter Krause is an Associate Professor of Political Science at challenges of the 21st century. Press is now leading a project to Boston College. His research focuses on international security, create new tools of conventional force analysis, and to measure Middle East politics, political violence, and national movements. the changing military balance around the world, including in He just published a co-edited volume, Stories from the Field: Eastern Europe, maritime East Asia, the Korean Peninsula, and A Guide to Navigating Fieldwork in Political Science with Taiwan. His work has appeared in leading academic journals such Columbia University Press. His book, Rebel Power: Why National as International Security, the American Political Science Review, Movements Compete, Fight, and Win, was published in 2017 in and Security Studies, as well as in the popular press including the Cornell Studies in Security Affairs series with Cornell University Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, and The Atlantic Monthly. Press. His co-edited volume, Coercion: The Power to Hurt in International Politics was published in 2018 with Oxford University Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson’s teaching and research Press. He has previously published articles on the causes and interests focus on the intersection of international security and effectiveness of terrorism and political violence, U.S. intervention diplomatic history, particularly the rise and fall of great powers in the Syrian civil war, the politics of division within the Palestinian and the origins of grand strategy. He has special expertise in national movement, the war of ideas in the Middle East, and a great power politics since 1945 and U.S. engagement in Europe reassessment of U.S. operations at Tora Bora in 2001. Krause has and Asia. conducted extensive fieldwork throughout the Middle East. He is a faculty associate in the International Studies Program and the Shifrinson’s first book, Rising Titans, Falling Giants: How Great Islamic Civilization and Societies Program at Boston College. He Powers Exploit Power Shifts (Cornell University Press, 2018) received his PhD in political science from MIT and was formerly a builds on extensive archival research focused on U.S. and Soviet Fellow at the Crown Center for Middle East Studies of Brandeis foreign policy after 1945 to explain why some rising states University, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs of challenge and prey upon declining great powers, while others the Harvard Kennedy School, Uppsala University in Sweden, and seek to support and cooperate with declining states. He has LUISS University in Italy. additional related projects on U.S. grand strategy, the durability of NATO, U.S. relations with its allies during and after the Cold War,

53 and the rise of China. His work has appeared with International others. She has previously worked as a researcher at the Center Security, the Journal of Strategic Studies, Foreign Affairs, and for Strategic and International Studies, as a consultant to the other venues. His next major project examines American foreign U.S. Department of Defense, and as a professor at the George policy in the 1990s and early 2000s to explain how great powers Washington University. For more information visit try to stop challengers from emerging. CaitlinTalmadge.com or follow her on Twitter @ProfTalmadge.

Jonathan (Yoni) Shimshoni served for 25 years with the Israel Cindy Williams was a Principal Research Scientist at the Security Defense Forces (IDF), in both field command and staff positions, Studies Program until her retirement in 2013. Her interests include culminating his career as Director of Planning for the Planning budgets and budgeting for national security and the capabilities Division with the rank of Brigadier General. He received his PhD and personnel practices of armed forces in North America in Public Policy from the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton, and Europe. Formerly she was an Assistant Director of the with a specialty in security policy. Yoni has taught at Princeton Congressional Budget Office, where she led the National Security and has pursued research on strategic issues at MIT and the Division. Williams served as a director and in other capacities at Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington; he has published within the MITRE Corporation in Bedford, Massachusetts; as a member the Cornell Studies in Security Affairs and in International Security of the Senior Executive Service in the Office of the Secretary of on conventional deterrence, technology and doctrinal innovation, Defense; and as a mathematician at RAND. as well as in Survival and in the leading Israeli daily Haaretz. Yoni has served on several committees of the Israeli National Security Williams holds a PhD in mathematics from the University of Council and in the IDF reserves worked extensively on challenging California, Irvine. She is coauthor, with Gordon Adams, of Buying security issues related to economics, technology, strategy and National Security: How America Plans and Pays for Its Global doctrine. In recent years his work has focused on society-centric Role and Safety at Home (Routledge 2010). She is co-editor, warfare and its implications for strategy. In addition to these with Curtis Gilroy, of Service to Country: Personnel Policy and the security and policy related endeavors, Yoni was Managing Partner Transformation of Western Militaries (MIT Press 2006). She is the of PWC Consulting in Israel and led the establishment and editor of Filling the Ranks: Transforming the U.S. Military Personnel management of a start-up company. In 2019-20 he was a Visiting System (MIT Press 2004) and Holding the Line: U.S. Defense Scholar at SSP, engaged in exploration of the American Civil War Alternatives for the Early 21st Century (MIT Press 2001). She is as a society-centric conflict. a former Shapiro Professor of the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University and a former member Caitlin Talmadge is Associate Professor of Security Studies of the Naval Studies Board. She is an elected fellow and a former in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and member of the board of directors of the National Academy of Senior Non-Resident Fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Public Administration and a former member of the editorial board Institution. Professor Talmadge’s research and teaching focus of International Security. on defense policy, civil-military relations, U.S. military operations and strategy, nuclear deterrence and escalation, and security issues in Asia and the Persian Gulf. She is author of The Dictator’s Army: Battlefield Effectiveness in Authoritarian Regimes (Cornell, 2015), which Foreign Affairs named the Best Book in Security for 2016 and which won the 2017 Best Book Award from the International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association. She also is coauthor of U.S. Defense Politics: The Origins of Security Policy (Routledge, 2021, with Harvey Sapolsky and Eugene Gholz). Her articles have been published in International Security, Security Studies, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, The Journal of Strategic Studies, Foreign Affairs, The Washington Quarterly, The Non-Proliferation Review, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and elsewhere. Dr. Talmadge’s work has received funding from the Carnegie Corporation, the Minerva Initiative, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the American Political Science Association, and the Stanton Foundation, among People

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