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Electrifying Hong Kong: Making Transport Sustainable

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Electrifying Hong Kong: Making Transport Sustainable ELECTRIFYING HONG KONG: MAKING TRANSPORT SUSTAINABLE Richard Gilbert† Prepared for Civic Exchange, Hong Kong February 2002 † Information about the author appears on Page 117 ELECTRIFYING HONG KONG: MAKING TRANSPORT SUSTAINABLE PAGE 3 Table of Contents SUMMARY ................................................................5 3.2.2. Road vehicle fleet.....................................38 3.2.3. Trends in road traffic ................................39 1. INTRODUCTION .....................................................7 3.2.4. Trends in air and marine freight activity ...40 1.1. Sustainability: securing the well-being of 3.3. Transport projections...................................... 42 seven generations of new faces .......................7 3.3.1. Public transport infrastructure ..................42 3.3.2. Road vehicle fleet.....................................42 1.2. Sustainability and sustainable transport .........11 3.3.3. Transport activity......................................43 1.3. Definitions and vision of sustainable 3.4. Concluding remarks........................................ 44 transport..........................................................12 1.4. Environmental imperatives set the 4. EFFECTS OF TRANSPORT IN HONG KONG.............. 46 framework for sustainability ............................15 4.1. Energy use ..................................................... 46 2. HONG KONG IN WORLD AND ASIAN CONTEXTS .......19 4.2. Emissions of greenhouse gases .................... 50 2.1. Hong Kong: the extraordinary affluent 4.3. Emissions of other pollutants.......................... 51 urban region....................................................19 4.3.1. Comparisons with other urban regions.....51 4.3.2. Trends in emissions .................................53 2.2. Hong Kong: the urban region in Asia..............28 4.3.3. Spatial intensity of emissions ...................58 4.3.4. Projections of emissions from transport ...59 3. LAND USE AND TRANSPORT ACTIVITY IN HONG 4.4. Air quality........................................................ 61 KONG.................................................................34 4.5. Noise .............................................................. 66 3.1. Settlement density ..........................................34 4.6. Casualties....................................................... 67 3.2. Recent transport trends ..................................37 3.2.1. Use of public transport............................. 37 4.7. Economic impacts .......................................... 68 ELECTRIFYING HONG KONG: MAKING TRANSPORT SUSTAINABLE PAGE 4 4.8. Social impacts.................................................72 7.5. Better integration and cooperation ............... 110 4.9. Concluding remarks........................................75 7.6. Key steps for the next 10-15 years............... 111 7.6.1. R&D capacity for tethered vehicles ........112 5. ENERGY FUTURES: A KEY FACTOR IN 7.6.2. Education about the need for change ....113 TRANSPORT PLANNING.........................................77 8. CONCLUDING REMARKS .....................................114 5.1. The end of cheap oil (and natural gas)?.........77 5.2. Moving towards sustainable energy use.........81 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...........................................116 5.3. Sustainable energy for Hong Kong.................83 NOTE ON THE AUTHOR ...........................................117 6. MOVING TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT IN HONG KONG.......................................................91 END NOTES..........................................................118 6.1. Requirements for sustainable transport..........91 6.2. Transport in Hong Kong is not on a sustainable trajectory......................................94 6.3. Meeting the sustainability requirements .........95 6.3.1. Overall considerations ............................. 95 6.3.2. Moving people ......................................... 98 6.3.3. Moving freight........................................ 100 6.3.4. Non-motorised transport........................ 102 7. IMPLEMENTING THE ALL-ELECTRIC OPTION ...........104 7.1. Movement of people .....................................104 7.2. Movement of freight ......................................107 7.3. Aviation and marine transport issues............108 7.4. Paying the cost of it all..................................109 ELECTRIFYING HONG KONG: MAKING TRANSPORT SUSTAINABLE PAGE 5 Summary This document’s title, Electrifying Hong Kong, re- of the existing fleet of large and small diesel buses flects its central proposal, which is that over the to trolleybuses, with development of necessary in- next 30 years transport in Hong Kong should be- frastructure. come essentially entirely fuelled by electricity gen- erated from renewable sources. This is proposed Proposals made in the document regarding goods as a way of Making Transport Sustainable in Hong transport are less specific. This is because less is Kong—hence the second part of the title. known now about goods transport, there is more uncertainty about how it might unfold, and less ex- Hong Kong’s transport is proposed to be electrified perience with a central part of the strategy that is in part by a major increase in passenger rail ser- proposed. This strategy involves the use of trolley vices. This is nothing new; indeed much of what is lorries, similar to trollybuses, but replacing lorries proposed here has also been proposed by the rather than buses. There would also be an unspeci- Hong Kong Government. Additions are proposed fied increase in the amount of freight transport by here for implementation between the Government’s rail, and perhaps also more trans-border freight planning horizon of 2016 and this document’s hori- transport by water. zon, which is 2032. The overarching framework for the development of What is entirely new is the proposal that the rest of the proposed transport scenario is a proposed en- the passenger transport system be electrified. The ergy scenario for Hong Kong. The energy scenario main feature of this electrification is transformation accepts as likely projections that the end of cheap ELECTRIFYING HONG KONG: MAKING TRANSPORT SUSTAINABLE PAGE 6 oil will occur during the present decade and the end The proposal that Hong Kong should become the of cheap natural gas before 2032. The scenario has all-electric city is made in direct response to the Hong Kong moving towards an all-electric energy consideration of what sustainable transport should economy based on renewable generation. mean for Hong Kong. The early part of this document is a substantial re- The document concludes with recognition that what view of the Hong Kong transport system and its is proposed for Hong Kong is dramatic and far- impacts. The review concludes that, mostly be- reaching, and that it could also bring major eco- cause of its settlement density, Hong Kong is per- nomic benefits. These benefits would arise from haps the closest to transport sustainability among being a technology leader in the matter of tethered the world’s affluent urban regions. However, there vehicles, including road vehicles such as trolley- are disturbing trends in transport activity and trans- buses and trolley lorries, and also trains and trams. port-related impacts. Establishment of a Tethered Vehicle Institute is pro- posed to ensure exploitation of this opportunity. The critical matter is that although Hong Kong’s overall emissions of pollution from transport are Also proposed is a massive public education sys- relatively low, they occur in such a small space tem to alert citizens as to the need for change and there are major and worsening air pollution prob- the reasons for the particular changes that are pro- lems. Noise is also a potential concern. posed. If the proposed scenarios are adopted, Hong Kong will be forging new paths. Hong Kong The document contains elaboration of what is residents as a whole should support such ventures meant by ‘sustainable transport’ and how it can be into the relative unknown. quantified. Sustainable transport is defined for Hong Kong taking into account what has been agreed elsewhere and adapting it to Hong Kong’s particular circumstances. ELECTRIFYING HONG KONG: MAKING TRANSPORT SUSTAINABLE PAGE 7 1. Introduction 1.1. Sustainability: securing the well-being of seven generations of new faces Sustainable has become Sustainable has become a popular word among policy-makers. It is used instead of a popular word well-performing or viable or just plain good. When policy-makers describe a road system as sustainable, they could mean many things: the roads go where people want to travel; they carry traffic with little congestion and few collisions; or, per- haps above all, their construction and maintenance costs are affordable. Special use of ‘sustainable’ by Environmental scientists use the terms sustainable and sustainability in a special environmentalists way. They are concerned with long-term impacts on plant and animal systems in- cluding human populations. They are concerned too about the use of non- renewable resources such as oil and natural gas.1† Something is sustainable if it can keep going more or less indefinitely. This means it has to use renewable re- sources and have small, non-cumulative impacts on the environment. † The superscript numbers refer to 155 End Notes that begin on Page 118. The End Notes contain details of the sources cited in the text as well as additional information and discussion. ELECTRIFYING HONG KONG:
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