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What If the Uemachi Fault Belt Became Active and a Great Hanshin

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What If the Uemachi Fault Belt Became Active and a Great Hanshin Earthquakes/Tsunamis Earthquakes/Tsunamis There are no safe places in Japan that do not experience earthquakes If a Nankai Trough earthquake (also called a Nankai megathrust earthquake) were to occur, it is predicted that great damage would be caused by the powerful tremors and resulting tsunamis. After suffering from the Great East Japan Earthquake, the country has organized new predictions for the severe earthquakes What if the Uemachi fault belt became active and a that are expected to occur on the Nankai Trough. It predicts that there is the possibility that 687 cities, towns and villages in 24 prefectures will experience shaking of a seismic intensity of 6 Weak or greater on the Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale. There is a possibility that Suita City will suffer Earthquakes/Tsunamis shaking of a seismic intensity of 6 Weak. Great Hanshin Earthquake-level struck Suita City? To strengthen disaster preparedness, areas are placed into two categories. Areas predicted to suffer heavy damage due to a Tokai earthquake are designated as “Earthquake Disaster Preventative Countermeasures Improvement Areas,” and areas predicted to suffer heavy damage due to a Nankai Trough earthquake Estimated seismic intensity Estimated liquefaction Estimated physical damage are designated as “Earthquake Disaster Preventative Countermeasures Promotion Areas.” Suita City is in the latter category, i.e. it is an “Earthquake Disaster Preventative Countermeasures Promotion Area” and expected to suffer heavy damage from a Nankai Trough earthquake. Almost the entirety of Suita City would suffer an Liquefaction of sand would be developed About 76% of wooden buildings and 32% of ●Distribution of seismic intensity of shaking caused by a severe earthquake Fires earthquake of at least 6 Strong on the Japanese through the outburst and fluxion of sand in not other type buildings would be half or scale. Seven on the scale would also be only the low-lying area on the Kanzaki River completely destroyed in the city. on the Nankai Trough (maximum class) registered on the eastern side of the Uemachi and Ai River in fault zone and on embankments. the south of the city but the Estimated ★ It is predicted that Suita City will experience embankments. physical Seismic震度階級 shaking of a seismic intensity of 6 Weak. Estimated intensity levels seismic damage 77 Announcement by Osaka 66強 Strong Prefecture in June 2013 intensity 66弱 Weak Estimated 55強 Strong 55弱 Weak e/Landslides g liquefaction 44 3 and below 3以下 Storm and Flood Dama Urban Disasters Urban 南Nankai 海トラフ Trough ● Seismic intensity ■ Scale 7 ● Rate of complete collapse Risk of liquefaction ■ Scale 6 (upper) ● ■ 60% and up ■ 20 to 30% Research Subcommittee on Countermeasures for the Osaka Nankai Trough Earthquake Disaster ■ Exceedingly high possibility of liquefaction ■ 50 to 60% ■ 10 to 20% Preparations Everyday ■ High possibility of liquefaction ■ 40 to 50% ■ 10% or less 30 to 40% Suita City Damage Forecast (Summary) ■ Low possibility of liquefaction ■ “Earthquake Disaster Preventative Countermeasures ●Past Occurrences of Nankai Trough earthquakes Estimated location of Promotion Areas” for a Nankai Trough earthquake Estimated casualties earthquake source fault Estimated In principle, these are areas that are predicted to In the past, the Nankai Trough earthquakes Prevention People killed People injured experience one of the damage types listed below in the event of a Nankai Trough earthquake. Suita City is have occurred roughly casualties Disaster Regional Number Population ratio Number Population ratio in category 1. every 100-150 years. Arima Takatsuki fault belt 1498 : Meio M8.2-8.4 1,364 0.4% 4,628 1.3% As is shown in the 1500 A great number of casualties Areas of Seismic Intensities of Six-Weak and 107 diagram at right, there 1600 Suita City would be produced by direct Above (Conspicuous Damage Caused by 1605 : Keicho M7.9 1 102 Ikoma fault belt Ikoma Estimated evacuees Earthquake Shaking) are many cases in which 1700 damage from the earthquake. 1707 : Hoei M8.4 earthquakes in the three 1800 147 Affected persons Evacuation life 1854 : Ansei Nankai M8.4 1854 : Ansei Tokai M8.4 Uemachi fault belt Uemachi About 50,000 people would hypocentral areas (Tokai, Areas predicted to experience a “large 1900 92 Years 90 Number Population ratio Number Population ratio tsunami” (more than 3 meters tall) but do Tonankai, and Nankai) 1946 : Nankai M8.0 1944 : Tonankai M7.9 Seismic Gap be forced to live in evacuation 2013 2 not have coastal embankments taller than 3 occur simultaneously or centers. 179,779 50.4% 52,134 14.6% Tokai Earthquake Epicenter Range meters. within a short period of *Areas expected to have large amounts of jetsam: Important time of one another. Temporary evacuation" denotes those who temporarily evacuate for the prevention of secondary disaster. Harbors and Designated Important Ports and Harbors Map Prevention Disaster Reference: "Shinpen Nihon no Katudanso” ● 4 5.
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