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Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11Th to 20Th August 2021

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11Th to 20Th August 2021

REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 89

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11th to 20th August 2021

th 11 August 2021

© NOCC August 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG Rene Ramses, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raïssa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°89 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11th to 20th August 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 . II. Forecast Summary

II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - , Betare Gongon and Mbakaou in the ; - , Yaounde, , Eseka, , , , , Monatele, , and Yoko in the ; - , Abong-Mbang, , Lomie, , Koso, , Mbalam and Belabo in the ; - , , , Sangmelima and Zoetele in the ; - Loum, Edea, Baptek, , and in the Littoral region. II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Mokolo, Bogo and Mora in the Far ; - Touboro in the North region; NB1: This dekad from 11th to 20th August 2021 will be marked by a number of days with cold nights around the average recorded in the last dekad in some localities of the West (, , , , , Tonga, and ), North West (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Nwa, Ako, Esu, and Santa), Adamawa (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou) and East regions (Mambele, Betare’ Oya and -Boulai).

II.2. For Precipitation The period from 11th to 20th August 2021 will be marked by an abundance in rainfall amounts compared to those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 in the Sudano-sahelian zone, High Guinean Savannah zone, High Plateau zone and the monomodal rain forest zone and in the bimodal rain forest zone. NB2: This dekad, from 11th to 20th August 2021, corresponds to: - a gradual end of the short dry season in the bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, South and East Regions), marked by an increase in rainfall amounts,

which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021, in the Centre and East Regions;

- a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North-West regions), marked by an increase in the already abundant amounts of st th rainfall, which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 August 2021, with a risk of landslides and mudflows due to the

saturation of the with water;

-a continuation of the rainy season in the monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South West regions), marked by an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021, with a high risk of flooding, landslides and mudflows due to the saturation of the soil with water; a continuation of the rainy season in the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), marked by an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021, with a very high risk of degradation of road infrastructures and flooding in some localities;

- a continuation of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, marked by an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021, with a very high risk of flooding in the lowland areas.

2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th August 2021

1) For precipitation

a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone d) In the Highlands zone The dekad from 11th to 20th August We expect: will be marked by: - an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, above those observed during the dekad - an increase in the already abundant from 1st to 10th August 2021 in , Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Makam, Bafoussam, Bafang, Dschang, B atcham, Bazou, Mbouda , Bangangte, Massagam and Bare- rainfall amounts, above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to Bakem in the with a very high risk of landslides or mudflows in steep areas and 10th August 2021 in Kousseri, flooding in low land areas; Makary, Waza, , Gamboura, - an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, above those observed during the dekad st th Kaele, Maga and Bogo, accompanied from 1 to 10 August 2021 in Nwa, Kumbo, Ndop, Benakuma, Fundong, Nkambe, Bali, by strong winds in the Far North Batibo, Widikum, Wum, Bamenda, Munkep, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom and Ako in the North West region with a very high risk of landslides or mudflows in steep areas and flooding in low region with a high risk of flooding in land areas. lowland areas;

e) In the Monomodal rain forest zone - an increase in the already abundant We expect: rainfall amounts, above the average

st - an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, above those observed during the previous recorded during the dekad from 1 to dekad in Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, Nguti, , , Bamusso, Dikome Balue, 10th August 2021 in Guider, Poli, Fontem, , , Limbe and Idenau in the South West region with a very high risk of Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Touboro, landslides or mudflows in steep areas and flooding in low land areas; Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo in - an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, above those observed during the previous the North region with a high risk of dekad in Melong, , Manjo, Loum, , , , Mbanga, , flooding in lowland areas; Edea, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral region with a high risk of flooding, especially in lowland areas. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone This dekad from 11th to 20th August 2021 will be marked by an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, A above those observed during the B dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Tibati, Yimbere, Tignere, Banyo, Mbakaou, Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region with a significant risk of damage or destruction of road infrastructure and even flooding in (a) (b) many localities. c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone We expect: - an increase in rainfall amounts, above those observed during the previous dekad in Bafia, Ngoro, Tikar, Nanga-Eboko, Monatele, Eseka, Yoko, , Mbandjock, Akonolinga and Nkoteng in the Centre region; - sporadic rainfall in Kribi and low rainfall amounts in Zoetele, , Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that recorded Sangmelima, Ambam, , during the period August 1-10, 2021 (a) Source: NOCC, August 2021 Campo, Djoum, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region; NB 4: For the dekad from 11th to 20th August 2021, we expect: - a gradual end of the short dry season in the bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, South and East regions), marked - an increase in rainfall amounts, st th above those observed during the by an increase in rainfall amounts, which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 August 2021, in the Centre and East Regions; previous dekad in Lomie, Ngoyla, - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions), marked by an increase Yokadouma, Moloundou, Bertoua, in the already abundant amounts of rainfall, which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th Garoua-Boulai, Belabo, Batouri and August 2021, with a risk of landslides and mudflows due to the saturation of the soil with water; Betare-Oya, in the East region. -a continuation of the rainy season in the monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South-West regions), marked by an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, which will be above those recorded during the dekad NB3: The expected rainfall in the st th Centre and East Regions and sporadic from 1 to 10 August 2021, with a high risk of flooding, landslides and mudflows due to the saturation of the soil with water; rains in the South Region are signs of a continuation of the rainy season in the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), marked by an increase the imminent onset of the long rainy in the already abundant rainfall amounts, which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th season in the bimodal rain forest zone. August 2021, with a very high risk of degradation of road infrastructures and flooding in some localities; - a continuation of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, marked by an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021, with a very high risk of flooding in the lowland areas. 3

2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bafoussam, Mbouda, , Dschang, Based on the historical mean of the average maximum Bazou, Bafang, Bangangte and Tonga; above the historical mean in Makam, Foumban, Koutaba and temperatures recorded during this dekad over the period from Foumbot, in the West region; 1979 to 2018, notably 30.6°C in the Far North Region; 30°C in the - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Eyumojock, Bamusso, North Region; 27.15°C in the Adamawa Region; 27°C in the Idenau, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Buea, Bakogo, Limbe, Fontem, Nguti, Mamfe, Buea and Kumba in Centre Region; 27.32°C in the South Region; 27.7°C in the East the South West region; Region; 23.93°C in the West Region; 25.08°C in the North-West - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Manjo, Mouanko, Edea, Douala, Loum Region; 26.28°C in the South West Region and 25.67°C in the and Yabassi; and around the historical mean in Melong, Dibombari, Nkongsamba, Penja, Dizangue, th th Littoral Region, for the dekad from 11 to 20 August 2021, we Ndokiti III, Nkondjock, Ndokama and Baptek in the Littoral region; expect maximum temperatures: - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Maroua, Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version). Yagoua, Maga, Waza, Gamboura, Makary, Kaele and Mindif; below the historical mean in Mokolo, Bogo, Kousseri and Mora in the Far-North region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, Pitoa, Lagdo, Guider, Poli, Garoua in the North region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Betare Gongon, Ngaoundal, Tibati and Mbakaou; below the historical mean in Yimbere, Meiganga, Dota, Tignere, Mbe and Ngaoundere; around the historical mean in Banyo in the Adamawa region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in (a) (b) Mbalmayo, Yoko, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga-Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Ngambe Tikar, Eseka, Obala and Yaounde in the Centre region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yokadouma, Batouri, Bertoua, , , Libongo, Lomie, Betare-Oya Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam and Belabo; below the historical mean in Garoua-Boulai and around the historical mean in Mambele in the East region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Djoum, Sangmelima, Kribi, Zoetele, Nyabizan, Ebolowa, Akom II, Ambam and Lolodorf; below the mean in Campo in the South region; - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Furu- Awa, Ako, Munkep, Bali, Santa, Ndop, Kumbo, Ndu, Nkambe,

Kumbo, Bambalang, Fundong, Benakuma, Wum, Nwa and Audu in Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the the North West region; same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, August 2021)

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Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version);

Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 in recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021, for the dekad Benakuma, Esu, Nwa, Bamenda, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Wum and Audu in the from 11th to 20th August 2021, we expect maximum temperatures: North-West region; st th st th - above the mean recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 August - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 August 2021 in 2021 in Mokolo, Mora and Makary; around the mean in Waza, Bangangte, Foumbot, Bare-Bakem, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Dschang, , Kousseri, Maga, Yagoua, Mindif, Kaele and Bogo in the Far North Bafang, Bazou, Mbouda, Tonga, Makam and Foumban in the West region.

region; - above the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Dembo and Guider; around the mean in Garoua, Touboro, Lagdo, Rey-Bouba, Tchollire, Pitoa and Poli in the North region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Yimbere, Ngaoundal, Mbakaou, Tibati, Kognoli, Banyo, Nassarao, Tignere, Ngaoundere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - above the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Mindourou; around the mean in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, Dimako, Belabo, Ngoyla, Moloundou, Kongolo, Doume, Yokadouma, Batouri, Bertoua, Garoua-Boulai and Betare-Oya; (a) (b) below the mean in Mambele in the East region; - above the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Akonolinga, Yaounde and Mbalmayo; around the mean in Ngoro, , Nanga-Eboko, Monatele, Mbandjock, , Nkoteng, Bafia, Eseka, Obala, Ngambe-Tikar in the Centre region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Zoetele, Djoum, Nyabizan, Minkoumou, Ebolowa, Lolodorf, Ambam, Akom II and Sangmelima; below the mean in Kribi and Campo in the South region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Bamusso, Ekok, Eyumojock, Nguti, Ekang, Dikome Balue, Fontem, Mamfe, Idenau, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Mundemba and Kumba in the South-West region; st th - below the mean recorded from 1 to 10 August 2021 in Loum, Figure 3: Variation in average maximum temperatures for the dekad from 11th to 20th August 2021 (b) st th Yabassi, Mbanga, Melong, Nkongsamba, , Ngambe, , compared to those recorded for the dekad from 1 to 10 August 2021 (a). Source: NOCC, August 2021 Ndom, , Ndokama, Baptek, Manjo, Dizangue, Douala, Mouanko and Edea in the Littoral region; 5

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th August 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Tibati, Betare Gongon and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region;

- Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Obala, Eseka, Nanga Eboko, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng,

Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre region; - Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam and Belabo in the East region; - Ambam, Djoum, Sangmelima and Zoetele in the South region; - Loum, Edea, Douala, Manjo and Mouanko in the Littoral region.

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b) For Minimum Temperatures - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Audu, Nwa, Esu, Santa, Bamenda Based on the historical mean of minimum temperatures recorded and Ndop; around the historical mean in Wum, Munkep, Bali, Kumbo, Benakuma and Ako in from 1979 to 2018, notably 22°C in the Far North Region; 21.3°C the North West region; in the North 18.4°C in the Adamawa Region; 19.9°C in the Centre - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba; around the historical Region; 20.6°C in the South Region; 20.4°C in the East Region; mean in Idenau, Buea and Kumba, Dikome Balue, Bamusso, Bakogo, Nguti, Dikome Bafaw, 17.8°C in the West Region; 17.3°C in the North-West Region; Mamfe, Ekang, Eyumojock, Tiko and Limbe in the South West region; 20.6°C in the South-West Region and 22.1°C in the Littoral - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Baptek, Region, for the dekad from 11th to 20th August 2021, we expect Mouanko, Douala, Edea, Loum, Ndokama, Mbanga, Yabassi, Dizangue, Manjo, Penja and minimum temperatures: Nkongsamba, in the Littoral region.

- below the historical mean recorded during the same period from

1979 to 2018 in Mokolo, Bogo and Mora; around the historical mean in Gamboura, Mindif, Waza, Makary, Kousseri, Maroua, Kaele, Maga and Yagoua in the Far North region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Dembo, Lagdo, Poli, Garoua, Rey Bouba, Guider and Tchollire; below the historical mean in Touboro in the North region; - below the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga; above the historical mean in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere, Banyo and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from (a) (b) 1979 to 2018 in Monatele, , Eseka, Yoko, Nkoteng, Bafia, Mbalmayo, Ngambe Tikar, Obala, Akonolinga and Yaounde, in the Centre region; - above the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Mindourou, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Belabo, Lomie, Batouri and Moloundou, Ngoyla, Kozo, Betare Oya and Mambele; below the historical mean in Garoua-Boulai, in the East region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Campo, Sangmelima, Djoum, Zoetele, Ebolowa, Lolodorf, Kribi, Ambam, Akom II and Nyabizan, in the South region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Makam and Foumbot; around the mean in Tonga,

Foumban and Koutaba; Dschang, Bafoussam, Bafang, Mbouda, Figure 4: Variation in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (1-10 August 2021) (b) compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 (a). Source: NOCC, August 2021 Bamendjing, Bangangte and Bazou, in the West region;

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Based on the difference between the average minimum - above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Bakogo, Dikombe Bafaw, Ekok, st th temperatures recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 Ekang Tiko, Muyuka, Idenau, Bamusso, Mundemba, Mamfe, Buea, Kumba, Fontem and th th August 2021, for the dekad from 11 to 20 August 2021, we Nguti in the South West region. expect minimum temperatures: - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Makary and Kousseri; above the mean in Mora, Bogo, Yagoua, Kaele, Mindif, Maga, Maroua, Waza, Gamboura and Mokolo in the Far North region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo and Rey Bouba; above the mean in Tchollire, Poli, Touboro and Guider in the North region; - above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Dota, Ngaou Mbol, Mbakaou, Banyo, Tibati, Banyo, Yimbere, Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region; - above the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Ngambe Tikar, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock, Ngoro, Akonolinga, Obala, Nkoteng, Monatele, Yoko, Bafia, Eseka, (a) (b) Yaounde and Mbalmayo in the Centre region; - above the mean recorded during the period 1st to 10th August 2021 in Moloundou, Abong-Mbang, Betare-Oya, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Lomie, Yokadouma, Doume, Mindourou, Belabo, Batouri, Garoua-Boulai and Mambele in the East region; - above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Nyabizan, Ebolowa, Akom II, Sangmelima, Zoetele and Lolodorf; around the mean in Ambam, Campo, Kribi and Djoum in the South region; - above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Bamendjing, Magba, Bafoussam, Bafang, Makam Mbouda, Tonga, Foumban and Foumbot in the West region; - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Fundong, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Benakuma, Nwa, Munkep, Wum, Nwa and Audu; above the mean in Ako, Furu Awa, Bamenda and Esu in the North West region; - above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Penja, Ndokama, Edea, Dizangue, Loum, Melong, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Figure 4: Variations in minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those recorded in the dekad Yabassi, Mouanko, Edea, Douala and Baptek in the Littoral region; from 1st to 10th August 2021 (a). Source: NOCC, August 2021

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Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th August 2021, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to their historical values for the same period from

1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include: -Mokolo, Bogo and Mora in the Far North region;

- Touboro in the North region;

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IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: d) In the water and energy sector: A high risk of recording cases of destruction and degradation of certain crops in the A high risk of: field in many localities in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, especially in the Far North - falling of electricity transportation poles due to heavy rains accompanied by region, due to heavy rains. strong winds in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, (Waza, Makary, Kousseri etc.); -contamination of soil water, surface water and water catchment points by b) In the health sector: polluted runoffs in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, the monomodal rain forest zone, A high risk of recording cases of: the Guinean high savannah zone and the Highlands zone. - water-borne diseases (typhoid, yeast, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), due to the poor quality of drinking water, in the five agro-ecological zones; e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: - cholera in some settlements of the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Maroua, Mokolo, Maga, A high risk of recording numerous cases of: Mora, Garoua, Pitoa, etc.), and the Guinean High Savannah zone, due to the - morning fog leading to traffic accidents in many localities in the Centre, contamination of drinking water by polluted run-off water; South and East Regions (bimodal rain forest zone), West and north-west - respiratory diseases (flu epidemic, coughs, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), (Highlands zone) and South West (monomodal rain forest zone); in the Monomodal Rainforest Zone and the Highlands Zone, due to cold and - floods in some localities of the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Waza, Makary, humidity; Kousseri etc.), the Monomodal Rain Forest zone (Douala, Nkongsamba etc. - general pathologies for people suffering from hypertension, diabetes, obesity as - landslides in some localities in the North West and West regions (Highlands well as women in menopause, due to the heat at night in some localities of the five Zone), the Littoral and South West, due to waterlogging from rain recorded

Agro ecological zones; from the beginning of the rainy season. - multiplication of malaria-causing mosquitoes in the five agro-ecological zones. f) In the public works sector: c) For the livestock sector A high risk of recording cases of: A high risk of recording; - degradation of roads in the Highlands zone (West and North-West regions), - numerous cases of epizootics due to the cold weather during the night in some the monomodal rainforest zone (Littoral and South-West), and the Sudano- localities of the West Region (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), Sahelian zone, especially in the Far-North Region, due to heavy rainfall;

North West Region (Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa); - destruction of bridges and other crossing structures in some localities of the - cases of loss of livestock by lightning due to stormy rains accompanied by heavy Sudano-Sahelian zone, of the Guinean high savannah zone due to heavy and thunder in the Guinean high savannah zone; intensive rainfall. - cases of loss of livestock through drowning in some localities in the Sudano- Sahelian zone.

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st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 1 to 10 August 2021

High Guinean Agro Ecological Zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rain forest High plateau Mono-modal Rain Forest Savannah Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 22.2 22 19.8 19.8 19.4 20 16.6 16.2 20.1 20

Trend forecasts Success rates of Forecasts (%) 81 82.3 80 84 82.5 83.3 84 83 81.6 85.8 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 30.75 30 28.1 27.13 27 27.48 23.52 24.82 26.1 24.6 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 84.2 83.5 84.2 80.8 83.5 85.5 86 83.5 84.7 85 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 0-60 61-81 82-101 102-121 122-200 201-210 211-240 241-260 261-300 301-350 2018(mm) Trend forecasts ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 100 100 98 100 100 100 98.6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction; = Increase

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VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period:

In the sector. to: ▪ plan agricultural activities. notably the sowing phase in the Guinean High Savannah Zone. and maintenance in the south regions of the country with reference to the agricultural calendar produced by NOCC for the 2021 Agricultural season.

In the health sector. continue to ▪ raise public awareness on the need to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (washing food items. filtering drinking water and cooking food before consumption in households. use of latrines. etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ dress warmly to protect yourself from cold; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community health surveillance to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases (cholera) in order to take care of them. ▪ carry out vaccination campaigns against various epidemics and pandemics.

In the water and energy sector. to continue: ▪ regular sampling. analysis and treatment of drinking water at catchment points and water supply points before distribution to households; ▪ regular use of basic techniques (filtering. boiling. etc.) to make drinking water potable at household level; ▪ the replacement of defective (wooden) electricity transportation poles.

For more information, contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 Building no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected]

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