REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 89 Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11th to 20th August 2021 th 11 August 2021 © NOCC August 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG Rene Ramses, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raïssa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°89 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11th to 20th August 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 . II. Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Tibati, Betare Gongon and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Obala, Eseka, Nanga Eboko, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre region; - Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam and Belabo in the East region; - Ambam, Djoum, Kribi, Sangmelima and Zoetele in the South region; - Loum, Edea, Baptek, Douala, Manjo and Mouanko in the Littoral region. II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Mokolo, Bogo and Mora in the Far North region; - Touboro in the North region; NB1: This dekad from 11th to 20th August 2021 will be marked by a number of days with cold nights around the average recorded in the last dekad in some localities of the West (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Mbouda and Bafang), North West (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Nwa, Ako, Esu, Bamenda and Santa), Adamawa (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou) and East regions (Mambele, Betare’ Oya and Garoua-Boulai). II.2. For Precipitation The period from 11th to 20th August 2021 will be marked by an abundance in rainfall amounts compared to those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 in the Sudano-sahelian zone, High Guinean Savannah zone, High Plateau zone and the monomodal rain forest zone and in the bimodal rain forest zone. NB2: This dekad, from 11th to 20th August 2021, corresponds to: - a gradual end of the short dry season in the bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, South and East Regions), marked by an increase in rainfall amounts, which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021, in the Centre and East Regions; - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North-West regions), marked by an increase in the already abundant amounts of st th rainfall, which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 August 2021, with a risk of landslides and mudflows due to the saturation of the soil with water; -a continuation of the rainy season in the monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South West regions), marked by an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021, with a high risk of flooding, landslides and mudflows due to the saturation of the soil with water; a continuation of the rainy season in the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), marked by an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021, with a very high risk of degradation of road infrastructures and flooding in some localities; - a continuation of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, marked by an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, which will be above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021, with a very high risk of flooding in the lowland areas. 2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th August 2021 1) For precipitation a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone d) In the Highlands zone The dekad from 11th to 20th August We expect: will be marked by: - an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, above those observed during the dekad - an increase in the already abundant from 1st to 10th August 2021 in Koutaba, Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Makam, Bafoussam, rainfall amounts, above those Bafang, Dschang, B atcham, Bazou, Mbouda Bamendjou, Bangangte, Massagam and Bare- recorded during the dekad from 1st to Bakem in the West region with a very high risk of landslides or mudflows in steep areas and 10th August 2021 in Kousseri, flooding in low land areas; Makary, Waza, Maroua, Gamboura, - an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, above those observed during the dekad st th Kaele, Maga and Bogo, accompanied from 1 to 10 August 2021 in Nwa, Kumbo, Ndop, Benakuma, Fundong, Nkambe, Bali, by strong winds in the Far North Batibo, Widikum, Wum, Bamenda, Munkep, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom and Ako in the North West region with a very high risk of landslides or mudflows in steep areas and flooding in low region with a high risk of flooding in land areas. lowland areas; e) In the Monomodal rain forest zone - an increase in the already abundant We expect: rainfall amounts, above the average st - an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, above those observed during the previous recorded during the dekad from 1 to dekad in Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, Nguti, Muyuka, Kumba, Bamusso, Dikome Balue, 10th August 2021 in Guider, Poli, Fontem, Buea, Tiko, Limbe and Idenau in the South West region with a very high risk of Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Touboro, landslides or mudflows in steep areas and flooding in low land areas; Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo in - an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, above those observed during the previous the North region with a high risk of dekad in Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Dibombari, Mbanga, Penja, flooding in lowland areas; Edea, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral region with a high risk of flooding, especially in lowland areas. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone This dekad from 11th to 20th August 2021 will be marked by an increase in the already abundant rainfall amounts, A above those observed during the B st th dekad from 1 to 10 August 2021 in Tibati, Yimbere, Tignere, Banyo, Mbakaou, Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region with a significant risk of damage or destruction of road infrastructure and even flooding in (a) (b) many localities. c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone We expect: - an increase in rainfall amounts, above those observed during the previous dekad in Bafia, Ngoro, Ngambe Tikar, Nanga-Eboko, Monatele, Eseka, Yoko, Ntui, Mbandjock, Akonolinga and Nkoteng in the Centre region; - sporadic rainfall in Kribi and low rainfall amounts in Zoetele, Ebolowa, Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that recorded Sangmelima, Ambam, Lolodorf, during the period August 1-10, 2021 (a) Source: NOCC, August 2021 Campo, Djoum, Akom II and Nyabizan