REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 86

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11th to 20th July 2021

th 11 July 2021

© NOCC July 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathe, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathe, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG Rene Ramses, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raissa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°86 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11th to 20th July 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021. This dekad from 11th to 20th July 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Monsoon over the national territory.

II. Forecast Summary

II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Yimb ere, Tibati and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa Region; - Mbalmayo, , , , , Monatele, , and Yoko, in the ; - Yokadouma, , Lomie, , Abong-Mbang, Koso, , Mbalam and Belabo, in the ; - Ambam , Akom II and Zoetele, in the ; - Loum and Mouanko, in the Littoral Region. II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: -Mokolo, Bogo and Mora, in the Far-; - Poli and Touboro, in the North Region; - Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region; - -Boulai and Mambele, in the East Region. NB1: This dekad from 11th to 20th July 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities in the West (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Mbouda and Bafang), North-West (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Nwa, Ako, Esu, Bamenda and Santa), Adamawa (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou) and East Regions (Mambele and Garoua-Boulai). II.2. For Precipitation The period from 11th to 20th July 2021 will be marked by an increase in rainfall amounts as compared to those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, the Guinean high savannah zone and the highlands zone, with significant risks of flooding NB2: This dekad, from 11th to 20th July 2021, corresponds to: -the continuation and affirmation of the short dry season in the bimodal rainforest zone (Centre, South and East Regions), marked by very low amounts of rainfall; - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North-West Regions), marked by heavy rainfall; - continuation of the rainy season in the monomodal rainforest zone (Littoral and South-West Regions)

- the continuation of the rainy season in the Guinean high savannah zone (Adamawa region), marked by heavy rainfall; - the effective onset of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, marked by heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds and storms.

2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th July 2021

1) For precipitation

th th For the dekad from 11 to 20 July 2021, d) In the Highlands zone we expect: -rainfall amounts below the average recorded from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Koutaba, Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Makam, Bafoussam, Bafang, Dschang, Batcham, Bazou, Mbouda, a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Bamendjou, Bangangte, Massagam and Bare-Bakem in the West Region; -rainfall amounts above those recorded -rainfall amounts significantly above the average recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July st th during the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2021 2021 in Nwa, Kumbo, Ndop, Benakuma, Fundong, Nkambe, Bali, Batibo, Widikum, Wum, in Maroua, Waza, Makary, Gamboura, Bamenda, Munkep, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom and Ako in the North-West Region; Ka ele, Kousseri, Maga and Bogo, e) In the Monomodal rain forest zone accompanied by strong winds, in the Far- st th

-rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2021 in North Region,,; Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, Nguti, Muyuka, Kumba, Bamusso, Dikome Balue, Fontem,

-rainfall amounts above the average Buea, Tiko, Limbe and Idenau in the South-West Region; st th recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 -rainfall amounts belo w the average recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in July 2021 in , Poli, Tchollire, Rey Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Dibombari, Mbanga, Penja, Edea, Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, Garoua,

Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral Region. and Lagdo in the North Region.

b) In the Guinean high savannah zone th th - This dekad from 11 to 20 July 2021 will be marked by rainfall amounts significantly above the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Tibati, Yimbere, Tignere and Banyo; above average in Mbakaou, Ngaoundal, (a) (b) Ngaoundere and Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region. c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone we expect: -rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Mbalmayo, Yaounde, , Nanga-Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Akonolinga, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Yoko and Ngambe Tilkar in the Centre Region; -rainfall amounts below the average recorded from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Zoetele, , Sangmelima, Ambam, , Campo, , , Akom II and Nyabizan in the South Region; -rainfall amounts below the average recorded from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Lomie, Belabo, Ngoyla, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Moloundou, , Garoua- Boulai, Yokadouma, Batouri and Betare- Oya in the East Region.

th th NB 3: For the dekad from 11 to 20 July 2021, we expect: -the continuation and confirmation of the short dry season in the bimodal rainforest zone ( Centre, South and East Regions), marked by very low rainfall amounts; -the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North-West

Regions), marked by heavy rainfall; -the continuation of the rainy season in the monomodal rainforest zone (Littoral and South-West Regions); -the continuation of the rainy season in the Guinean high savannah zone (Adamawa region), marked by heavy rainfall; -the effective onset of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone marked by heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds and tornados in the Far-North and North Regions.

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2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures - Below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bafoussam, Mbouda, Batcham, Bas ed on the historical mean of average maximum temperatures Dschang, Bazou, Bafang, Bangangte and Tonga; around the mean in Foumban, Koutaba, Foumbot recorded during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, and Makam, in the West Region; notably 32.43°C in the Far-North Region; 31°C in the North - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Region 28.6°C in the Adamawa Region; 27°C in the Centre Idenau, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Buea, Bakogo, Limbe, Fontem and Nguti and; below the mean in Region; 27.11°C in the 27.11°C in the South Region; 27.18°C in Ekok, Mamfe and Kumba in the South-West Region; the East Region; 24.6°C in the West Region; 25.38°C in the - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Loum and Yabassi, ; around the mean in North-West Region; 25.82°C in the South-West Region and 25°C Melong, Edea, Dibombari, , Nkongsamba, Penja, Dizangue, Ndokiti III, Nkondjock, Manjo, th th in the Littoral Region. For the dekad from 11 to 20 July 2021, Ndokama, Mouanko, Douala and Baptek, in the Littoral Region. we expect maximum temperatures : - Below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mokolo and Mora; around the mean in Maroua, Kousseri, Yagoua, Maga, Bogo, Waza, Gamboura, Makary, Kaele and Mindif, in the Far- North Region; - Around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Guider, Poli, Tchollire, , Touboro, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo, in the North Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yimbere, Ngaoundal, Tibati and Mbakaou; below the mean in Meiganga, Dota, Tignere, Mbe and Ngaoundere; around the mean in Banyo, in the Adamawa Region; (a) (b) - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbalmayo, Yoko, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko,

Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Ngambe Tikar; around the mean in Eseka, Obala and Yaounde, in the Centre Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yokadouma, Batouri, Bertoua, , Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam and Belabo; below the mean in Garoua- Boulai and around the mean in Mindourou, Lomie, Mambele, Libongo and Betare-Oya in the East Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Akom II, Ambam and Zoetele; around the mean in Djoum, Sangmelima, Kribi, Nyabizan, Ebolowa and Campo; below the mean in Lolodorf, in the South Region; - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Furu- Awa, Ako and Audu; around the mean in Munkep, Ako, Bali, Santa, Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the Ndop, Kumbo, Ndu, Nkambe, Kumbo, Bambalang, Fundong, same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, July 2021) Benakuma and Wum; around the mean in Nwa and Audu in the North-West Region; 4

Based on the difference between the mean maximum temperatures - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021, for the dekad from Benakuma, Esu, Nwa, Bamenda, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Wum and Audu in 11 th to 20th July 2021, we expect maximum temperatures: the North-West Region; - Around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July st th - - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2021 in 2021 in Mindif, Maroua, Yagoua, Kaele, Mora, Maga, Mokolo, Bangangte, Foumbot, Bare-Bakem, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Dschang, Magba, Kousseri, Waza and Bogo; above the mean in Makary in the Bafang, Bazou, Mbouda, Tonga, Makam and Foumban in the West Region. Far-North Region; st th - Around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2021 in Garoua, Lagdo, Poli, Touboro, Rey-Bouba, Tchollire, Guider, Touboro, Pitoa and Dembo in the North Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Ngaoundal, Mbe, Kognoli, Banyo, Tignere, Mbakaou, Tibati, Ngaoundere, Yimbere, Nassarao and Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, Dimako, Mindourou, Belabo, Ngoyla, Moloundou, Kongolo, Doume, Yokadouma, Batouri, Bertoua, Garoua-Boulai and Betare-Oya, in the East Region st th - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 July (a) (b) 2021 in Ngoro, , Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Mbandjock, , Nkoteng, Bafia, Mbalmayo, Eseka, Obala, Ngambe Tikar and Yaounde, in the Centre Region - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Zoetele, Djoum, Nyabizan, Minkoumou, Campo, Ebolowa, Lolodorf, Ambam, Kribi, Akom II and Sangmelima, in the South Region - - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Bamusso, Ekok, Eyumojock, Nguti, Ekang, Dikome Balue and Fontem; below the mean in Mamfe, Idenau, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Mundemba and Kumba, in the South-West Region st th - around the mean recorded from 1 to 10 July 2021 in Loum, Mouanko, Yabassi and Mbanga , Melong, Nkongsamba, Pouma, Figure 3: Variation in average maximum temperatures for the dekad from 11th to 20th July 2021 (b) compared Ngambe, Yingui, Ndom, Dizangue, Douala, Nyanon, Edea to to those recorded for the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 (a). Source: NOCC, July 2021 Ndokama and Baptek; below the mean in Manjo, in the Littoral Region;

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Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th July 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: -Yimbere, Tibati and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa Region;

- Mbalmayo, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko, in the Centre Region;

- Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam and Belabo, in the East Region; - Ambam, Akom II and Zoetele, in the South Region; - Loum and Mouanko, in the Littoral Region.

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b) For Minimum Temperatures - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Furu Awa, Ako and Nwa; around the Based on the historical mean of minimum temperatures recorded mean in Wum, Munkep, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda, Ndop and Benakuma in the North- from 1979 to 2018, notably 23.6°C in the Far-North Region; 23°C West Region; in the North Region; 20.2°C in the Adamawa Region; 19°C in the - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dikome Balue, Bamusso, Bakogo, Centre Region; 20.7°C in the South Region; 19.6°C in the East Mundemba, Nguti, Dikome Bafaw, Mamfe, Ekang, Eyumojock, Idenau, Tiko, Limbe, Buea and Region; 16.2°C in the West Region; 16.4°C in the North-West Kumba in the South-West Region; Region; 20.4°C in the South-West Region; and 19.7°C in the - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Mouanko, th th Littoral Region, for the dekad from 11 to 20 July 2021, we Douala, Edea, Baptek, Ndokama, Mbanga, Yabassi, Dizangue, Manjo, Penja, Nkongsamba and expect minimum temperatures: Loum, in the Littoral Region. - below the historical mean recorded during the same period

from 1979 to 2018 in Mokolo and Mora; around the mean in Gamboura, Mindif, Waza, Makary, Kousseri, Maroua, Kaele, Maga and Yagoua, in the Far-North Region - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Dembo, Lagdo, Garoua, Rey Bouba, Guider and Tchollire; below the mean in Poli and Touboro, in the North Region; - below the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga; above the mean in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere, Banyo and Mbakaou, in Adamawa Region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from (a) 1979 to 2018 in Monatele, , Eseka, Yoko, Nkoteng, Bafia, (b) Mbalmayo, Ngambe Tikar, Obala, Akonolinga and Yaounde, in the Centre Region - above the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Mindourou, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Belabo, Lomie, Batouri and Moloundou, Betare-Oya, Ngoyla and Kozo; below the mean in Garoua-Boulai and Mambele, in the East Region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Kribi, Akom II, Ambam, Campo, Zoetele and Ebolowa; below the mean in Lolodorf; around the mean in Nyabizan and Djoum, in the South Region; - above the mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Bafoussam, Bafang, Mbouda, Bamendjing, Figure 4: Variation in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (11-20 July 2021) (b) compared to Tonga, Bangangte, Bazou, Makam, Foumbot, Foumban and historical averages from 1979 to 2018 (a). Source: NOCC, July 2021 Koutaba, in the West Region;

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Based on the difference between the mean minimum - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Bakogo, Dikombe Bafaw, Ekok, st th temperatures recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 July Ekang Tiko, Muyuka, Idenau, Bamusso, Mundemba, Mamfe, Buea, Kumba, Fontem and th th 2021, for the dekad from 11 to 20 July 2021, we expect Nguti in the South-West Region. minimum temperatures: - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Mora, Bogo, Mokolo Yagoua, Makary, Kaele, Mindif, Maga, Kousseri, Maroua and Waza; above the mean in Gamboura, in the Far-North Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Poli and Touboro; above the mean in Guider and Tchollire in the North Region; - above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Dota, Ngaou Mbol, Mbakaou, Banyo, Tibati, Banyo, Meiganga and Ngaoundere, in the Adamawa Region - above the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Ngambe Tikar, Yaounde, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock, Ngoro, Akonolinga, Eseka, Monatele, Yoko, Bafia and Mbalmayo; around (a) (b) the mean in Obala and Nkoteng, in the Centre Region - above the mean recorded during the period from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Moloundou, Abong-Mbang, Betare-Oya, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Lomie, Yokadouma, Doume, Mindourou, Belabo and Batouri; around the mean in Garoua-Boulai and Mambele, in the East Region; - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Djoum and Nyabizan; above the mean in Ebolowa, Ambam, Campo, Kribi, Akom II, Sangmelima, Zoetele and Lolodorf, in the South Region - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Bamendjing, Magba, Bafoussam, Bafang, Makam Mbouda, Tonga, Foumban and Foumbot, in the West Region - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Fundong, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Bamenda, Benakuma, Nwa, Munkep, Ako, Figure 4: Variations in minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those recorded in the dekad st th Furu Awa, Wum, Nwa and Audu in the North-West Region; from 1 to 10 July 2021 (a). st th Source: NOCC, July 2021 - above the mean recorded from 1 to 10 July 2021 in Penja, Ndokama, Edea, Dizangue, Loum, Melong, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Yabassi, Mouanko, Edea, Douala and Baptek in the Littoral Region;

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Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th July 2021, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to their historical values for the same period from

1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include: -Mokolo, Bogo and Mora, in the Far-North Region;

- Poli and Touboro, in the North Region; - Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region; - Garoua-Boulai and Mambele, in the East Region

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IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: d) In the water and energy sector:

A high risk of recording cases of: A high risk of: - falling of electricity transportation poles due to heavy rains accompanied by -destruction of plantations in many localities in the South-West, West, North- West and Littoral Regions, due to heavy rains accompanied by strong winds. strong winds in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, Guinean high savannah zone, the b) In the health sector: monomodal rain forest zone and the highlands zone; A high risk of recording cases of: -contamination of soil water, surface water and water catchment points by polluted runoffs in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, the monomodal rain forest zone, -water -borne diseases (typhoid, yeast, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), due to the poor the Guinean high savannah zone and the Highlands zone. quality of drinking water, in the five agro-ecological zones; -cholera in some settlements of the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Maroua, Mokolo, Maga, e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: Mora, Garoua, Pitoa, etc.),and the Guinean High Savannah zone, due to the A high risk of recording numerous cases of: contamination of drinking water by polluted run-off water. - morning fog leading to traffic accidents in many localities in the Centre, South

-respiratory diseases (flu epidemic, coughs, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), and East Regions (bimodal rain forest zone), West and north-west (Highlands in the Monomodal Rainforest Zone,and the Highlands Zone, due to cold and zone) and South-West (monomodal rain forest zone); humidity; - floods in some localities of the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Maroua, Garoua, Pitoa, -general pathologies for people suffering from hypertension, diabetes, obesity as Mokolo etc.), the Monomodal Rain Forest zone (Douala, Nkongsamba etc. well as women in menopause, due to the heat at night in some localities of the five - landslides in some localities in the North West and West regions (Highlands Agro ecological zones; Zone), the Littoral and South West, due to waterlogging from rain recorded from -multiplication of malaria-causing mosquitoes in the five agro-ecological zones. the beginning of the rainy season. c) For the livestock sector f) In the public works sector: A high risk of recording cases of: A high risk of recording; - degradation of roads in in the Highlands zone (West and North-West • numerous cases of epizootics due to the cold weather during the night in some regions), the monomodal rainforest zone (Littoral and South-West), due to localities of the West Region (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), heavy rainfall; North-West Region (Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa); - destruction of bridges and other crossing structures in some localities of the • cases of loss of livestock by lightning due to stormy rains accompanied by Highlands zone, the Monomodal Rain Forest zone, the Guinean High heavy thunder in the Guinean high savannah zone; Savannah zone and the Sudano-Sahelian zone due to heavy and strong . cases of loss of livestock through drowning in some localities in the Sudano- rainfall. Sahelian zone

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st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2021

High Guinean Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rain forest High plateau Mono-modal Rain Forest Savannah Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 24,51 23,37 20,38 19,55 19 20,63 16,55 16,67 19,54 20

Trend forecasts Success rates of Forecasts (%) 77 80,6 83,5 80 82,2 85,1 83 83,7 84 80,7 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 34,34 32,29 29,20 28,55 28 27,83 24,73 25,50 26,28 25,94 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 83 80,5 83 85,8 86,2 84,1 85,5 84 85,3 83,8 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 0-60 61-81 82-101 102-121 122-200 201-210 211-240 241-260 261-300 301-350 2018(mm) Trend forecasts ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 100 100 98 100 100 100 98,6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction; = Increase

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VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period:

In the Agriculture sector, to: Plan agricultural activities, notably the sowing phase in the Guinean High Savannah Zone, and maintenance in the south regions of the country with reference to the agricultural calendar produced by NOCC for the 2021 Agricultural season.

In the health sector, continue to ▪ raise public awareness on the need to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (washing food items, filtering drinking water and cooking food before consumption in households, use of latrines, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ dress warmly to protect yourself from cold; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community health surveillance to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases (cholera) in order to take care of them. ▪ continue vaccination campaigns against various epidemics and pandemics.

In the water and energy sector, to continue: ▪ regular sampling, analysis and treatment of drinking water at catchment points and water supply points before distribution to households; ▪ regular use of basic techniques (filtering, boiling, etc.) to make drinking water potable at household level; ▪ the replacement of defective (wooden) electricity transportation poles.

For more information, contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 Building no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected]