REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 86 Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11th to 20th July 2021 th 11 July 2021 © NOCC July 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathe, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathe, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG Rene Ramses, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raissa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°86 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11th to 20th July 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021. This dekad from 11th to 20th July 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Monsoon over the national territory. II. Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Yimbere, Tibati and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa Region; - Mbalmayo, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko, in the Centre Region; - Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam and Belabo, in the East Region; - Ambam , Akom II and Zoetele, in the South Region; - Loum and Mouanko, in the Littoral Region. II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: -Mokolo, Bogo and Mora, in the Far-North Region; - Poli and Touboro, in the North Region; - Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region; - Garoua -Boulai and Mambele, in the East Region. NB1: This dekad from 11th to 20th July 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities in the West (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Mbouda and Bafang), North-West (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Nwa, Ako, Esu, Bamenda and Santa), Adamawa (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou) and East Regions (Mambele and Garoua-Boulai). II.2. For Precipitation The period from 11th to 20th July 2021 will be marked by an increase in rainfall amounts as compared to those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, the Guinean high savannah zone and the highlands zone, with significant risks of flooding NB2: This dekad, from 11th to 20th July 2021, corresponds to: -the continuation and affirmation of the short dry season in the bimodal rainforest zone (Centre, South and East Regions), marked by very low amounts of rainfall; - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North-West Regions), marked by heavy rainfall; - continuation of the rainy season in the monomodal rainforest zone (Littoral and South-West Regions) - the continuation of the rainy season in the Guinean high savannah zone (Adamawa region), marked by heavy rainfall; - the effective onset of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, marked by heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds and storms. 2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th July 2021 1) For precipitation For the dekad from 11th to 20th July 2021, d) In the Highlands zone we expect: -rainfall amounts below the average recorded from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Koutaba, Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Makam, Bafoussam, Bafang, Dschang, Batcham, Bazou, Mbouda, a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Bamendjou, Bangangte, Massagam and Bare-Bakem in the West Region; -rainfall amounts above those recorded -rainfall amounts significantly above the average recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July st th during the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2021 2021 in Nwa, Kumbo, Ndop, Benakuma, Fundong, Nkambe, Bali, Batibo, Widikum, Wum, in Maroua, Waza, Makary, Gamboura, Bamenda, Munkep, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom and Ako in the North-West Region; Kaele, Kousseri, Maga and Bogo, e) In the Monomodal rain forest zone accompanied by strong winds, in the Far- st th -rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2021 in North Region,,; Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, Nguti, Muyuka, Kumba, Bamusso, Dikome Balue, Fontem, -rainfall amounts above the average Buea, Tiko, Limbe and Idenau in the South-West Region; st th recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 -rainfall amounts belo w the average recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in July 2021 in Guider, Poli, Tchollire, Rey Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Dibombari, Mbanga, Penja, Edea, Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral Region. and Lagdo in the North Region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone th th - This dekad from 11 to 20 July 2021 will be marked by rainfall amounts significantly above the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Tibati, Yimbere, Tignere and Banyo; above average in Mbakaou, Ngaoundal, (a) (b) Ngaoundere and Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region. c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone we expect: -rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Obala, Nanga-Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Akonolinga, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Yoko and Ngambe Tilkar in the Centre Region; -rainfall amounts below the average recorded from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Zoetele, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Ambam, Lolodorf, Campo, Djoum, Kribi, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South Region; -rainfall amounts below the average recorded from 1st to 10th July 2021 in Lomie, Belabo, Ngoyla, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Moloundou, Mindourou, Garoua- Boulai, Yokadouma, Batouri and Betare- Oya in the East Region. th th NB 3: For the dekad from 11 to 20 July 2021, we expect: -the continuation and confirmation of the short dry season in the bimodal rainforest zone ( Centre, South and East Regions), marked by very low rainfall amounts; -the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North-West Regions), marked by heavy rainfall; -the continuation of the rainy season in the monomodal rainforest zone (Littoral and South-West Regions); -the continuation of the rainy season in the Guinean high savannah zone (Adamawa region), marked by heavy rainfall; -the effective onset of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone marked by heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds and tornados in the Far-North and North Regions. 3 2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures - Below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bafoussam, Mbouda, Batcham, Bas ed on the historical mean of average maximum temperatures Dschang, Bazou, Bafang, Bangangte and Tonga; around the mean in Foumban, Koutaba, Foumbot recorded during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, and Makam, in the West Region; notably 32.43°C in the Far-North Region; 31°C in the North - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Region 28.6°C in the Adamawa Region; 27°C in the Centre Idenau, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Buea, Bakogo, Limbe, Fontem and Nguti and; below the mean in Region; 27.11°C in the 27.11°C in the South Region; 27.18°C in Ekok, Mamfe and Kumba in the South-West Region; the East Region; 24.6°C in the West Region; 25.38°C in the - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Loum and Yabassi, ; around the mean in North-West Region; 25.82°C in the South-West Region and 25°C Melong, Edea, Dibombari, Douala, Nkongsamba, Penja, Dizangue, Ndokiti III, Nkondjock, Manjo, th th in the Littoral Region. For the dekad from 11 to 20 July 2021, Ndokama, Mouanko, Douala and Baptek, in the Littoral Region.