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Civil Resistance: an Essential Element of a Total Defense Strategy

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Civil Resistance: an Essential Element of a Total Defense Strategy Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2014-06 Civil resistance: an essential element of a total defense strategy Kuul, Margus Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/42667 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS CIVIL RESISTANCE: AN ESSENTIAL ELEMENT OF A TOTAL DEFENSE STRATEGY by Margus Kuul June 2014 Thesis Advisor: Hy Rothstein Second Reader: Doowan Lee Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2014 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS CIVIL RESISTANCE: AN ESSENTIAL ELEMENT OF A TOTAL DEFENSE STRATEGY 6. AUTHOR(S) Margus Kuul 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) In 1994 Gene Sharp, founder of the Albert Einstein Institution, which advances the study of nonviolent action, met former Estonian minister of defense Hain Rebas and suggested that civil resistance be added to Estonian Defense Policy. The idea never materialized. The current National Defense Policy and National Defense Strategy do not include civil resistance. The Estonian National Defense Development Plan for 2013‒2022 states that military capability at the end of 2022 will consist of up to 90,000 soldiers, which is less than ten percent of the Estonian population. Comprehensive state defense does not use the nation’s non-military capability even though there is recognition that civil resistance is an important force multiplier. This thesis urges Estonia to reconsider Sharp’s proposal. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Civil Resistance, Irregular Warfare, Unconventional Warfare, Total Defense, 15. NUMBER OF Comprehensive State Defense, National Security Concept of the Republic of Estonia, National PAGES Defense, Estonian Defense Policy, Estonian National Defense Strategy, the Cedar Revolution, the 145 Singing Revolution, the Druze Resistance, the Kosovo Resistance, Estonia, small state, strategy. 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540–01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited CIVIL RESISTANCE: AN ESSENTIAL ELEMENT OF A TOTAL DEFENSE STRATEGY Margus Kuul Major, Estonian Defense Force Diploma of professional higher education, Estonian National Defense College, 2003 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN DEFENSE ANALYSIS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2014 Author: Margus Kuul Approved by: Hy Rothstein Thesis Advisor Doowan Lee Second Reader John Arquilla Chair, Department of Defense Analysis iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT In 1994 Gene Sharp, founder of the Albert Einstein Institution, which advances the study of nonviolent action, met former Estonian minister of defense Hain Rebas and suggested that civil resistance be added to Estonian Defense Policy. The idea never materialized. The current National Defense Policy and National Defense Strategy do not include civil resistance. The Estonian National Defense Development Plan for 2013‒2022 states that military capability at the end of 2022 will consist of up to 90,000 soldiers, which is less than 10 percent of the Estonian population. Comprehensive state defense does not use the nation’s non-military capability even though there is recognition that civil resistance is an important force multiplier. This thesis urges Estonia to reconsider Sharp’s proposal. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. PROBLEM STATEMENT .............................................................................1 B. PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES OF THE THESIS .....................................5 C. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ...................................................................6 II. LITERATURE REVIEW .........................................................................................13 A. CHARACTERISTICS OF SUCCESSFUL CIVIL RESISTANCE ..........21 1. Leadership ..........................................................................................22 2. Participation Level .............................................................................22 3. Loyalty Shift .......................................................................................22 4. Strategy ...............................................................................................23 5. Organization and Social Networks ...................................................23 6. Narrative .............................................................................................23 7. Doctrine ...............................................................................................23 B. PRIMARY AND SUPPORTING HYPOTHESES .....................................24 III. THE CEDAR REVOLUTION IN LEBANON, 2005 .............................................25 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................25 1. Significance of the Case .....................................................................25 2. Synopsis ...............................................................................................26 B. ANALYSIS .....................................................................................................30 1. Leadership ..........................................................................................30 2. High Participation Level ...................................................................31 3. Regime Loyalty Shift .........................................................................32 4. Strategy ...............................................................................................32 5. Organization .......................................................................................33 6. Narrative .............................................................................................33 7. Doctrine ...............................................................................................34 8. Other Factors .....................................................................................35 C. SUMMARY ....................................................................................................37 IV. THE SINGING REVOLUTION IN ESTONIA, 1987‒1991 ..................................39 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................39 1. Significance of the Case .....................................................................39 2. Synopsis ...............................................................................................39 B. ANALYSIS .....................................................................................................45 1. Leadership ..........................................................................................45 2. High Participation Level ...................................................................47 3. Regime Loyalty Shift .........................................................................49 4. Strategy ...............................................................................................50 5. Organization .......................................................................................53 6. Narrative .............................................................................................55 7. Doctrine ...............................................................................................56 8. Other Factors .....................................................................................57 vii C. SUMMARY ....................................................................................................58 V. THE DRUZE RESISTANCE IN ISRAEL,
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