Israel and the Middle East News Update

Thursday, September 8

Headlines:  Likud Response to Poll: Lapid a Left Winger, Likud Voters Will Return  Russia Says Abbas, Netanyahu Agree to Meet in Moscow  Freeze First Local Elections in Years Due to Hamas, Fatah Spat  Ramallah Laughs Off Report that Abbas Was a KGB Agent  Begins Building Underground Gaza Barrier to Combat Tunnels  Israeli Military Roadblocks Practically Cut Off West Bank Town  Haniya Will Reportedly Replace Mashal as Hamas Leader Next Year  Israeli Jets Hit Syrian Targets in Response to Earlier Projectile Strike

Commentary:  Al-Monitor: “What It Would Cost Abbas to Reconcile with Dahlan”  By Shlomi Eldar, Israel Pulse Columnist, Al-Monitor  Jerusalem Post: “Evolution of -Israel Ties: No Longer Terrorist Entity”  By Zvi Mazel, Fellow, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts September 8, 2016

Ma’ariv Response to Poll: Lapid a Left Winger, Likud Voters Will Return The surprising poll reported on Channel Two showing Yesh Atid headed by Yair Lapid becomes the largest party created a stir in the political establishment and agitation among Likud and Zionist Union supporters. The official Likud response said that the results were a direct outcome of the Sabbath crisis, but Likud activists began an exchange of recriminations attributing the fall in the polls to the personal battle between Transport Minister Yisrael Katz and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. People close to the prime minister described the poll as a “fleeting mood” and said that the Likud voters would return when they realized that Lapid was a left winger who heads a left wing party.

Jerusalem Post Russia Says Abbas, Netanyahu Agree to Meet in Moscow Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed in principle to meet in Moscow, Interfax news agency reported. Abbas said on Tuesday that he accepted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to meet Netanyahu in Moscow on Friday, but later said the convening had been postponed on Netanyahu's request. On Monday, Netanyahu's office said he was considering the Russian offer, but that Israel would not accept any preconditions to such a meeting. See also, “Russia: Netanyahu and Abbas Agree to Meet, but No Date Set” (Ha'aretz)

Ha’aretz Palestinians Freeze Local Elections Due to Hamas, Fatah Spat The Palestinian Authority's Supreme Court ruled Thursday to freeze the local elections in the West Bank and Gaza this October due to what it described as serious irregularities – chiefly a court ruling in Gaza to remove candidate slates identified with Fatah in Gaza, and the exclusion of East Jerusalem from the election process. Palestinian sources told Ha’aretz that the election process was seriously harmed when the Gaza courts, which are essentially Hamas-run, decided to annul the lists of candidates associated with Fatah in Gaza. See also, “Palestinian Court Postpones Long Awaited Local Elections” (Times of Israel)

Times of Israel Ramallah Laughs Off Report that Abbas Was KGB Agent Palestinians were apparently unmoved by an Israeli report that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was a KGB agent 30 years ago, with officials in Ramallah laughing off the claim while other Palestinian groups remained mostly mum on the allegation. On Wednesday night Israel’s Channel 1 television reported Abbas was a Soviet spy in Damascus during the 1980s, citing information it said was included in an archive smuggled out of the USSR. Abbas spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh said Thursday called the report a smear campaign and said it “falls under the framework of Israeli absurdities which we have gotten used to.” See also, “Soviet Document Suggests Mahmoud Abbas Was KGB Spy in the 1980s” (New York Times) 2

BICOM Israel Begins Building Underground Gaza Barrier Israel has started construction of a huge barrier along the border with the Gaza Strip, which is designed to eliminate the threat of cross-border attacks, especially those from underground tunnels. The barrier will reportedly reach several stories below ground and also a number of stories above ground. The underground element will also include technological detection systems to locate subterranean tunneling. In total, the barrier is expected to extend the entirety of the 37-mile Gaza border at an estimated cost of almost £400m. IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot is quoted describing the barrier as the “largest project” ever undertaken by the IDF.

Ha’aretz Israeli Military Roadblocks Practically Cut Off West Bank Town The closed over 10 access roads last week, some of them central, near the town of Hawara in the northern West Bank. Residents say the roadblocks prevent tens of thousands of people in the Palestinian communities near Hawara from moving freely and entering the city directly. Hawara’s main artery, which also serves as a main access road to the settlements in the northern West Bank, was not closed. However, the roads between Hawara and the towns of Beita, Inabus and Burin have been blockaded, as well as roads inside Hawara itself. The IDF confirmed that they had placed roadblocks in the area due to the recent increase in the number of stone-throwing incidents there. According to Sami, a resident of Hawara who operates a grocery store on its main artery, the number of customers has declined by over 50% since the roadblocks were put in place.

Walla Haniya to Replace Mashal as Hamas Leader Next Year Senior Hamas official Ismail Haniya will likely replace Khaled Mashal as the Hamas Political Bureau director next year. This was said on Monday by Hamas sources to the Asharq al-Awsat newspaper. The sources said that there was considerable support among the leadership for Haniya, who today serves as Mashal’s deputy, ahead of the elections that will take place secretly in November and December for the Political Bureau and for other Hamas institutions. It was reported in the last few months that top Hamas leaders had decided not to extend Mashal’s term, who had been the strong man in Hamas since Israel assassinated Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in 2004. They also said that if appointed, Haniya would leave the Gaza Strip and would move permanently to Qatar with his family, where he will join the rest of Hamas’s overseas leadership in Doha.

Times of Israel Israeli Jets Hit Syrian Targets in Response to Projectile Strike The Israeli Air Force overnight Wednesday-Thursday hit a number of rocket launchers belonging to the Syrian army after a projectile from the neighboring country struck an open area on the Israeli side of the Golan Heights earlier Wednesday evening. The shell caused no injuries or damage, after reportedly landing in an open field in Kibbutz Merom Golan. The Israeli military said spillover projectiles will not be tolerated and that Israel holds the Syrian regime of President Bashar Assad responsible. The raging civil war in Syria has generated a number of such incidents over the years. See also, “IDF Attacks Syrian Mortar Launchers” (Arutz Sheva)

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Al-Monitor – September 6, 2016 What It Would Cost Abbas to Reconcile with Dahlan By Shlomi Eldar  For the past few weeks, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has faced a bitter dilemma. He is being forced to decide whether to reconcile with his bitter rival, former Fatah senior member Mohammed Dahlan. Regardless of his decision, he will end up the loser.  As Adnan Abu Amer wrote in Al-Monitor Sept. 1, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been heavily pressuring Abbas to end the feud with Dahlan and bring him back to Ramallah, after having expelled him from both the West Bank and Fatah. One of their main arguments is that without a reconciliation with Dahlan, Abbas will not be able to reconcile with Hamas. In short, he must ultimately decide whether he is really interested in reuniting the Palestinian people and ending the schism between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Abbas, however, is reluctant to act.  Al-Monitor has learned from reliable sources close to Dahlan that in opposition to the group of countries pushing for reconciliation, led by Egypt, is Qatar, which has been pressuring the Palestinian leader to reject such a move. The Qatari emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, relayed a message to the Palestinian Authority (PA) through former Knesset member Azmi Bishara (who now lives in Qatar) warning Abbas that if he allows their common rival to return to Ramallah, it would signal the end of his regime in the West Bank. As the emir cautioned Abbas, the result would be that Dahlan would replace him as the president of the PA.  Reports of ties between Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and Dahlan have made the Qatari threat more than just a response to an internecine Palestinian quarrel. The possibility of an actual tripartite Dahlan-Liberman-Sisi coalition is perceived by Abbas as a signal that there is a regional plot underfoot to replace him with Dahlan.  Last year, Israeli and Palestinian media both reported that Liberman had met with Dahlan. It was further reported that Liberman considers Dahlan a fitting negotiating partner, in comparison to Abbas, whom Liberman regards as the main obstacle to any Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic initiative.  The internal conflict within Fatah has become yet another facet of the open animosity between those countries supportive of Dahlan (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) and Qatar. This leaves Abbas trapped between a rock and a hard place. If he acquiesces to the reconciliation initiative, succumbing to the pressure led by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, he will have problems with the region’s most important financial benefactor, the emir of Qatar.  When Al-Monitor asked whether the Qatari emir's message included a threat of financial sanctions, Dahlan’s confidantes responded that all the players in the current political game are fully aware of the consequences of whatever position Abbas takes. The issue, they say, has been blown out of proportion. Qatar's representation in the Gaza Strip did not respond to Al- Monitor's question about its position on Dahlan's return.

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 Confirmation of the intense pressure Qatar is applying to the Palestinian leader was intimated in a speech Abbas delivered at a meeting in Ramallah Sept. 3. “We must push back against all the pressure being employed against us, particularly in our internal affairs,” he said. “No one — not even the wealthy nations — has the right to dictate [policy] or force policy on us. We must think ‘Palestinian.’”  Senior Fatah members interpreted these comments as an indication that Abbas eventually intends to follow through with the reconciliation initiative as part of a package deal that will include an end to the feud with Dahlan, rapprochement with Hamas, and benefits from Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Yet there are also those who interpreted Abbas' remarks as a message that he intends to stand firm against pressure from any and all Arab states. Regardless of what he actually meant, it is clear to everyone that the Palestinian president confirmed that he is the target of a serious onslaught by all the Arab states in regard to Dahlan, whom several Arab leaders consider to be Abbas’ inevitable heir.  This is not the only problem Abbas must confront. Dahlan has bitter enemies within Fatah who will not stand idly by if he, the person they loathe, is allowed to return to a key leadership position in the movement. They have been using social media and Palestinian news sites to post a steady stream of reports and allegations concerning Dahlan’s alleged involvement in corruption scandals in the West Bank and Gaza and his responsibility for the expulsion of Fatah from Gaza with Hamas' military takeover in 2007.  One of Dahlan’s most prominent adversaries is Jibril Rajoub, the Palestinian sports minister and senior Fatah official. Dahlan and Rajoub were close friends in Tunis in the early 1990s, before the Oslo Accord, when they worked together with PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat. During the second intifada, however, Rajoub accused Dahlan of helping Israel launch an attack against the Palestinian Preventive Security Service command center in Beituniya, headed at the time by Rajoub. Since then, the two men have been bitter enemies.  In an interview with Egypt’s ONTV, Rajoub said, “It is incumbent on anyone who made the mistake and harmed the Fatah movement to pay for what he did. If he wants to atone for what he did and once again contribute to Fatah’s important activities in our primary struggle against Israel, he must submit a request to the organization’s institutions, and they will consider it.”  Rajoub then added, “Every such candidate must submit an individual request, rather than a single request for an entire group.” He was referring to what Fatah calls Jama’at Dahlan, the “Dahlan Party,” the large group of Dahlan supporters who either resigned from Fatah or were expelled from the movement for maintaining allegiance to Dahlan.  Rajoub’s comments make it clear that more than just external parties have been applying pressure on Abbas over the Dahlan issue. There is pressure from within his own movement as well. With Fatah currently focusing all its resources toward the municipal elections scheduled for Oct. 8, a major crisis within the movement could be devastating. This means that Abbas' decision on Dahlan will only be known after the elections. All that is known at the moment is that no matter what Abbas ultimately decides, he will emerge the loser. Shlomi Eldar is a columnist for Al-Monitor’s Israel Pulse. For the past two decades, he has covered the Palestinian Authority and especially the Gaza Strip for Israel’s Channels 1 and 10, reporting on the emergence of Hamas. 5

Jerusalem Post – September 6, 2016 Evolution of Egypt-Israel Relations: No Longer Terrorist Entity By Zvi Mazel  The Egyptian foreign minister brought a breath of fresh air to the decades-long Arab-Israeli conflict when he stated unequivocally on August 21 that Israel could not be considered a terrorist state. This further step toward closer relations between Egypt and Israel resonated throughout the Arab world, where accusing the Jewish state of terror against the Palestinians is a basic propaganda tenet.  Sameh Shoukry, meeting high school students in his office, was asked why Israel’s actions against the Palestinians were not considered terrorism. The exchange between the students and the minister was recorded and posted by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry on its Twitter account. His answer was factual and devoid of the accusations against Israel, which are automatic in the Arab world. He is quoted as having said, “You can look at it from the perspective of a regime of force,” going on to explain that “certainly in accordance with its history it has a society in which the element of security is strong.” And then he added something startling, “From Israel’s perspective, since 1948 that society had faced many challenges that have instilled in its national security doctrine its control of land and border crossings.”  In fact, said the Egyptian foreign minister, “there is no evidence showing a link between Israel and armed terrorist groups.”  This can be seen as a new way of viewing Israel and its place in the region in the face of Arab attitudes, the Islamic establishments and nationalist elites still refusing to acknowledge its legitimacy and opposing it furiously. For not only did Shoukry distance himself from qualifying Israeli activities as acts of terror, that is, illegitimate and deserving of unreserved condemnations; he mentioned the year 1948 – that is,the year of the proclamation of the State of Israel and the war of independence, both sources of the nakba or “disaster” of the Palestinians and of all Arabs – as a well-known historical fact. And it was because of the challenges that resulted from that historical fact that Israel had to react forcibly ever since.  Shoukry’s words made headlines in Egypt – though many media outlets chose to ignore them, including those affiliated with the regime who were reluctant to deal with such potentially explosive declarations. Indeed, the following day a Foreign Ministry spokesman accused “several papers” of having distorted what had actually been said and of falsely reporting that the minister had declared that the killing of Palestinian children was not terrorism.  Furthermore, he said, those papers were guilty of incitement against the well-known views of Egypt, which has championed Palestinian rights in the past, the present, and would forever champion them. He stressed that the students had not asked specific questions concerning the killing of Palestinian children but had simply voiced a theoretical question as to why the international community did not define Israeli actions as acts of terror. The minister, the spokesman said, had replied that there was no legal international definition regarding acts committed by nations. In other words, the Foreign Ministry did not try to distance itself from what the minister had said, and simply accused the media of having distorted his words.

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 Taken in the context of the evolution of the relations between Egypt and Israel, Shoukry’s comments can be seen as yet another step toward closer links between the countries. It is well known that there is strong intelligence and security cooperation between Israel and Egypt based, among other considerations, on the common threat of Islamic State – Sinai Province. If it is not defeated in Egypt, it will attack Israel directly.  In the past, the group has launched missiles across the border and was responsible for a cross border terrorist attack near Eilat in 2011 in which eight Israelis were killed.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly declares that he has frequent conversations with Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi. Such is the background of the gradual rapprochement between the two countries: Egypt has sent an ambassador to Tel Aviv and the Embassy of Israel in is open again. Sisi has also said that he is ready to help promote negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians and his foreign minister recently made a visit to Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s envoys regularly travel to Cairo for high-level talks. It can be safely assumed that they include a number of subjects and not solely the Palestinian question, which is far from being Sisi’s first priority.  There can be no mistake: The Egyptian president is behind all these moves. Sisi has launched an all-out effort to develop his country and put it on the path of sustainable economic growth. Cooperation with Israel is part of this vision.  Sisi is a staunch Muslim but has always shunned religious extremism. He has been remarkably moderate concerning Israel ever since he became a public figure, that is, when he was appointed minister of defense by the since ousted Muslim Brotherhood president Mohamed Morsi in the mistaken belief that this pious general would help bring about the rule of the Brotherhood with a complicit army.  Sisi refrains from attacking or even condemning Israel. It was made clear from the first interviews he gave the press even before his election to the presidency. It took several questions concerning his views on the Palestinian issue before he succinctly said that there should be a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.  At the same time the Egyptian president has been pushing for toning down extremism in Islam. He has demanded that the clerics of al-Azhar Mosque undertake a reform of some of the more extreme expressions of religious dialogue. The Education Ministry has also been tasked with removing from textbooks elements or episodes encouraging religious extremism, more specifically those extolling Jihad – such as the wars of Saladin and of Akba Ben-Nafea, who conquered large territories in Africa. Also expunged were some texts disparaging the Jews, but not all. Chapters dealing with the peace agreement with Israel were expanded; the new modern history book of Egypt has a picture of Menachem Begin next to Anwar el Sadat, together with significant extracts of the peace treaty.  In spite of these encouraging developments, there are those who are steadfast in their opposition to Israel. They are mostly to be found in the old elites – the Islamic establishment and what is left of the nationalistic and pan-Arabic movements.  There is still a prevalent belief among the Egyptian public that Israel is an enemy bent on harming Egypt.

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 When Sisi decided to build a second canal alongside the Suez Canal to double its capacity and let a greater number of vessels through, a number of articles “explained” that the move was intended to spike Israel’s projected Ashdod-Eilat railway, allegedly intended to draw traffic away from the canal. When Prime Minister Netanyahu toured East African countries some weeks ago, media in Egypt “explained” that it was in order to encourage agriculture in countries situated up river on the Nile, which would then need more water thus diminishing what will be left for Egypt. When parliament member Tawfik Okasha had “the temerity” to host the Israeli ambassador for dinner, he was expelled from the parliament.  And of late an Egyptian judoka was roundly berated for agreeing to a match with an Israeli opponent – and for losing.  No wonder then that the Egyptian president is proceeding cautiously. Warmer relations with Israel are of paramount importance, but he has no wish for a confrontation with elites he needs to support his economic policy, especially since at the moment it has ushered in a measure of austerity which is highly unpopular.  He has apparently chosen a more circuitous route. A few months ago he announced that he wanted to help restart dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians, a perfectly legitimate long- term preoccupation for Egypt, which aspires to peace in the region.  However, it does not appear that Sisi has formulated his own peace initiative. He has said time and time again that he accepts all initiatives on the table, the French initiative included. There are some in Israel and in the West who believe that he is in favor of a pragmatic Sunni block, which would include Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states; together with Egypt they would sponsor an Israeli-Palestinian dialogue. But it is hard to believe that these countries would be able and willing to convince Palestinians to change their avowed strategy of non-recognition of the Jewish state and renounce the right of return.  Yet promoting the Palestinian issue affords an opportunity for Sisi to keep an open dialogue with Israel and discuss ways and means of expanding what really interests him: economic relations to take advantage of Israel’s technology and cooperation. One can therefore cautiously hope for some further – but limited – improvements in the relations between the two countries in the coming months. Zvi Mazel, a fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, is a former ambassador to Egypt, and .

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