Israel and the Middle East News Update Thursday, September 8 Headlines: Likud Response to Poll: Lapid a Left Winger, Likud Voters Will Return Russia Says Abbas, Netanyahu Agree to Meet in Moscow Palestinians Freeze First Local Elections in Years Due to Hamas, Fatah Spat Ramallah Laughs Off Report that Abbas Was a KGB Agent Israel Begins Building Underground Gaza Barrier to Combat Tunnels Israeli Military Roadblocks Practically Cut Off West Bank Town Haniya Will Reportedly Replace Mashal as Hamas Leader Next Year Israeli Jets Hit Syrian Targets in Response to Earlier Projectile Strike Commentary: Al-Monitor: “What It Would Cost Abbas to Reconcile with Dahlan” By Shlomi Eldar, Israel Pulse Columnist, Al-Monitor Jerusalem Post: “Evolution of Egypt-Israel Ties: No Longer Terrorist Entity” By Zvi Mazel, Fellow, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor News Excerpts September 8, 2016 Ma’ariv Response to Poll: Lapid a Left Winger, Likud Voters Will Return The surprising poll reported on Channel Two showing Yesh Atid headed by Yair Lapid becomes the largest party created a stir in the political establishment and agitation among Likud and Zionist Union supporters. The official Likud response said that the results were a direct outcome of the Sabbath crisis, but Likud activists began an exchange of recriminations attributing the fall in the polls to the personal battle between Transport Minister Yisrael Katz and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. People close to the prime minister described the poll as a “fleeting mood” and said that the Likud voters would return when they realized that Lapid was a left winger who heads a left wing party. Jerusalem Post Russia Says Abbas, Netanyahu Agree to Meet in Moscow Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed in principle to meet in Moscow, Interfax news agency reported. Abbas said on Tuesday that he accepted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to meet Netanyahu in Moscow on Friday, but later said the convening had been postponed on Netanyahu's request. On Monday, Netanyahu's office said he was considering the Russian offer, but that Israel would not accept any preconditions to such a meeting. See also, “Russia: Netanyahu and Abbas Agree to Meet, but No Date Set” (Ha'aretz) Ha’aretz Palestinians Freeze Local Elections Due to Hamas, Fatah Spat The Palestinian Authority's Supreme Court ruled Thursday to freeze the local elections in the West Bank and Gaza this October due to what it described as serious irregularities – chiefly a court ruling in Gaza to remove candidate slates identified with Fatah in Gaza, and the exclusion of East Jerusalem from the election process. Palestinian sources told Ha’aretz that the election process was seriously harmed when the Gaza courts, which are essentially Hamas-run, decided to annul the lists of candidates associated with Fatah in Gaza. See also, “Palestinian Court Postpones Long Awaited Local Elections” (Times of Israel) Times of Israel Ramallah Laughs Off Report that Abbas Was KGB Agent Palestinians were apparently unmoved by an Israeli report that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was a KGB agent 30 years ago, with officials in Ramallah laughing off the claim while other Palestinian groups remained mostly mum on the allegation. On Wednesday night Israel’s Channel 1 television reported Abbas was a Soviet spy in Damascus during the 1980s, citing information it said was included in an archive smuggled out of the USSR. Abbas spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh said Thursday called the report a smear campaign and said it “falls under the framework of Israeli absurdities which we have gotten used to.” See also, “Soviet Document Suggests Mahmoud Abbas Was KGB Spy in the 1980s” (New York Times) 2 BICOM Israel Begins Building Underground Gaza Barrier Israel has started construction of a huge barrier along the border with the Gaza Strip, which is designed to eliminate the threat of cross-border attacks, especially those from underground tunnels. The barrier will reportedly reach several stories below ground and also a number of stories above ground. The underground element will also include technological detection systems to locate subterranean tunneling. In total, the barrier is expected to extend the entirety of the 37-mile Gaza border at an estimated cost of almost £400m. IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot is quoted describing the barrier as the “largest project” ever undertaken by the IDF. Ha’aretz Israeli Military Roadblocks Practically Cut Off West Bank Town The Israel Defense Forces closed over 10 access roads last week, some of them central, near the town of Hawara in the northern West Bank. Residents say the roadblocks prevent tens of thousands of people in the Palestinian communities near Hawara from moving freely and entering the city directly. Hawara’s main artery, which also serves as a main access road to the settlements in the northern West Bank, was not closed. However, the roads between Hawara and the towns of Beita, Inabus and Burin have been blockaded, as well as roads inside Hawara itself. The IDF confirmed that they had placed roadblocks in the area due to the recent increase in the number of stone-throwing incidents there. According to Sami, a resident of Hawara who operates a grocery store on its main artery, the number of customers has declined by over 50% since the roadblocks were put in place. Walla Haniya to Replace Mashal as Hamas Leader Next Year Senior Hamas official Ismail Haniya will likely replace Khaled Mashal as the Hamas Political Bureau director next year. This was said on Monday by Hamas sources to the Asharq al-Awsat newspaper. The sources said that there was considerable support among the leadership for Haniya, who today serves as Mashal’s deputy, ahead of the elections that will take place secretly in November and December for the Political Bureau and for other Hamas institutions. It was reported in the last few months that top Hamas leaders had decided not to extend Mashal’s term, who had been the strong man in Hamas since Israel assassinated Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in 2004. They also said that if appointed, Haniya would leave the Gaza Strip and would move permanently to Qatar with his family, where he will join the rest of Hamas’s overseas leadership in Doha. Times of Israel Israeli Jets Hit Syrian Targets in Response to Projectile Strike The Israeli Air Force overnight Wednesday-Thursday hit a number of rocket launchers belonging to the Syrian army after a projectile from the neighboring country struck an open area on the Israeli side of the Golan Heights earlier Wednesday evening. The shell caused no injuries or damage, after reportedly landing in an open field in Kibbutz Merom Golan. The Israeli military said spillover projectiles will not be tolerated and that Israel holds the Syrian regime of President Bashar Assad responsible. The raging civil war in Syria has generated a number of such incidents over the years. See also, “IDF Attacks Syrian Mortar Launchers” (Arutz Sheva) 3 Al-Monitor – September 6, 2016 What It Would Cost Abbas to Reconcile with Dahlan By Shlomi Eldar For the past few weeks, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has faced a bitter dilemma. He is being forced to decide whether to reconcile with his bitter rival, former Fatah senior member Mohammed Dahlan. Regardless of his decision, he will end up the loser. As Adnan Abu Amer wrote in Al-Monitor Sept. 1, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been heavily pressuring Abbas to end the feud with Dahlan and bring him back to Ramallah, after having expelled him from both the West Bank and Fatah. One of their main arguments is that without a reconciliation with Dahlan, Abbas will not be able to reconcile with Hamas. In short, he must ultimately decide whether he is really interested in reuniting the Palestinian people and ending the schism between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Abbas, however, is reluctant to act. Al-Monitor has learned from reliable sources close to Dahlan that in opposition to the group of countries pushing for reconciliation, led by Egypt, is Qatar, which has been pressuring the Palestinian leader to reject such a move. The Qatari emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, relayed a message to the Palestinian Authority (PA) through former Knesset member Azmi Bishara (who now lives in Qatar) warning Abbas that if he allows their common rival to return to Ramallah, it would signal the end of his regime in the West Bank. As the emir cautioned Abbas, the result would be that Dahlan would replace him as the president of the PA. Reports of ties between Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and Dahlan have made the Qatari threat more than just a response to an internecine Palestinian quarrel. The possibility of an actual tripartite Dahlan-Liberman-Sisi coalition is perceived by Abbas as a signal that there is a regional plot underfoot to replace him with Dahlan. Last year, Israeli and Palestinian media both reported that Liberman had met with Dahlan. It was further reported that Liberman considers Dahlan a fitting negotiating partner, in comparison to Abbas, whom Liberman regards as the main obstacle to any Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic initiative. The internal conflict within Fatah has become yet another facet of the open animosity between those countries supportive of Dahlan (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) and Qatar. This leaves Abbas trapped between a rock and a hard place.