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Home , Clintonism, David Abulafia, One Year Later, Oslo I Accord, Yaakov Amidror, Yair Golan

The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies

No. 34 November 2016

INSIDE Israeli Policy – Whereto? Should ISIS be Wiped Out? Evaluating the Iran The Disaster, Deal, One Year Later Strategic Challenges 23 Years Later in the Eastern Mediterranean Prof. Efraim Karsh takes his piercing IDF Challenges of pen to the Oslo peace process – “one of the Future the worst-ever calamities to have hit Saudi Arabia and and ”. the New Regional Landscape Efraim Karsh becomes BESA Center Director Mourning the Passing of Muzi Wertheim The Oslo Disaster, 23 Years Later

Prof. Efraim Karsh indicts the Oslo peace process – “one of the worst-ever calamities to have hit Israelis and Palestinians.”

Hamas regimes. These regimes have Politically and diplomatically, he says, Palestinian gains. Yet one’s loss is contractual obligations. They continue government of a future Palestinian 2 reversed the hesitant advent of civil Oslo instantaneously transformed the not necessarily the other’s gain. The to whitewash ongoing Palestinian state, but its goal of having this state 3 society in these territories, shattered PLO (and, to a lesser extent, ) into Palestinian leadership’s zero-sum violence, belittle the extent of Israeli established without negotiating with their socioeconomic wellbeing, and an internationally accepted political approach and predication of Palestinian suffering, and blame , or even recognizing its right to Prof. Efraim Karsh made the prospects for peace and actor while upholding its commitment national identity on hatred of the for the stalled process despite the exist, seems to be gaining ever wider reconciliation with Israel ever more to Israel’s destruction, edging toward ‘other,’ rather than on a distinct shared public endorsement of the two-state currency. This soft racism – asking remote.” fully fledged statehood outside the Oslo legacy, has resulted in decades of solution by five successive Israeli prime nothing of the Palestinians as if they Prof. Efraim Karsh, the incoming framework, and steadily undermining dispersal and statelessness.” ministers: Peres, Barak, Sharon, Olmert, are too dim or too primitive to be director of the Begin-Sadat Center “This abject failure is a direct result of Israel’s international standing. and Netanyahu.” held accountable for their own words for Strategic Studies, has penned a the Palestinian leadership’s perception “Even if the PLO were to succeed in and actions – is an assured recipe for comprehensive study on what he calls of the process as a pathway not to a The ending of Israel’s occupation of the gaining international recognition of “Not only has the same terror-tainted disaster.” “the Oslo Disaster” and “the starkest two-state solution – meaning Israel Palestinian population of the territories a fully fledged Palestinian state (with Palestinian leadership come to be strategic blunder in Israel’s history.” alongside a Palestinian state in the West within three-and-a-half years from the or without a formal peace treaty with universally viewed as the prospective “For so long as not a single Palestinian Bank and Gaza – but to the subversion onset of the process has gone totally Israel) and in preventing Hamas from leader evinces genuine acceptance of “Twenty-three years after its euphoric of the State of Israel. They view Oslo unnoticed (due partly to Palestinian seizing power, it would still be a failed the two-state solution or acts in a way launch on the White House lawn,” Karsh not as a path to nation-building and propaganda, partly to Israel’s failure to entity in the worst tradition of Arab signifying an unqualified embrace of writes, “the Oslo ‘peace process’ stands state creation, but to the formation of a get this critical point across), with the dictatorships, in permanent conflict the idea, there can be no true or lasting as one of the worst calamities ever to repressive terror entity that perpetuates Jewish state still subject to international with its Israeli neighbor while brutally reconciliation with Israel. And so long as have afflicted Israelis and Palestinians, conflict with Israel, while keeping its opprobrium for the nonexistent repressing its unfortunate subjects.” the territories continue to be governed substantially worsening the position of hapless constituents in constant and “occupation.” by the PLO’s and Hamas’s rule of the both parties and making the prospects bewildered awe as Palestinian leaders Karsh bemoans that fact that “there jungle, no Palestinian civil society, let for peace and reconciliation ever more line their pockets from the proceeds of Domestically, Oslo radicalized Israel’s has been no real reckoning by the alone a viable state, can develop.” remote.” this misery.” Arab minority, nipping in the bud its Oslo architects and their erstwhile decades-long “Israelization” process ‘peace camp’ successors, both in Israel “Sadly, the possibility of a Palestinian “The process has led to establishment Karsh details how the Oslo process has and putting it on a collision course and abroad, of the worst blunder in spring, which seemed to be in the of an ineradicable terror entity on weakened Israel’s national security in with Israel’s Jewish community. Israel’s history, and no rethinking of its offing in 1993 when the PLO hovered Israel’s doorstep, deepened Israel’s several key respects. No less importantly, it made Israeli disastrously misconceived assumptions on the verge of extinction and West internal cleavages, destabilized its captive to the vicissitudes of – let alone any public admission of guilt Bank and Gaza leadership appeared political system, and weakened its On the strategic and military levels, Palestinian-Israeli relations, with the or show of remorse over its horrific eager to strike a historic deal within the international standing.” it allowed the PLO to achieve in PLO and Hamas becoming the effective costs.” framework of the Washington peace one fell swoop its strategic vision of arbiters of Israel’s political discourse and negotiations, has been destroyed for “It has been a disaster for West transforming the West Bank and the electoral process. “Instead, they continue to willfully the foreseeable future by the Oslo Bank and Gaza Palestinians too. into terror hotbeds that ignore the Palestinian leadership’s ‘peace process’.” It has brought about subjugation would disrupt Israel’s way of life (to use “On the face of it,” Karsh writes, “Israel’s total lack of interest in the two- to corrupt and repressive PLO and ’s words). massive setbacks can be considered state solution and serial violation of BESA CENTER ASSOCIATES IN ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION Israeli West Bank Policy – Whereto?

Yaakov Amidror, Hillel Frisch, Gershon Hacohen, Efraim the two-state rubric. This includes the sensitivities of neighbors who Inbar, Eran Lerman and Max Singer discuss Israel's policies on matter (, , etc.), the views the Palestinian issue, in a post-Obama and post-Abbas era. of Diaspora Jewry and of Western diplomatic allies, and defense The upshot of their debate: Apply Obama’s first rule of establishment preferences for the governance. “Don’t do stupid things.” It is wiser for Israel to status quo. defer action than to take steps that threaten to make a But Lerman also warns that the false Palestinian narrative of one-sided bad situation worse. Conflict management is victimhood is a major hindrance to all currently the least-worst option. peace efforts. “Global actors that want to help achieve peace need to assist Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror the Palestinians in moving beyond ‏Dr. Max Singer wallowing in self-pity and rituals of state in any borders, and the two bashing Israel,” he says. Supreme Court Justice Edmond Levy sides remain far apart on most of the to challenge the myth that Israel concrete issues to be resolved.” “The concept of painful but practical has stolen Palestinian land. “Even compromises seems alien to the opponents of Israeli settlements in “Israel’s recent governments are left, Palestinians, and the international the West Bank and supporters of a willy-nilly, with a de facto conflict- community is not doing its part to help two-state solution should support management approach, without the Palestinians mature towards this Levy’s affirmation of Israel’s historic With Barack Obama’s term as president (res.) Yaakov Amidror (the Rosshandler foreclosing any options. While there realization.” and settlement rights in the territories. 4 of the US coming to an end, and senior fellow at the center, and a former are costs to this wait-and-see approach, This is critical in leveling the diplomatic 5 ’ tenure as Palestinian national security advisor to the Prime let’s remember this was the approach playing field. Israel must not go into leader winding down too, the Israeli Minister), Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman favored by David Ben-Gurion. He future negotiations as a guilty party.” government will soon have an (a former deputy national security believed in buying time to build a opportunity to recalibrate its diplomatic advisor), and professors Hillel Frisch (an stronger state and in hanging on until General Hacohen goes beyond his BESA policies. Israeli policy on the Palestinian Arabist), Efraim Inbar (a strategist), and opponents yield their radical goals or Center colleagues. To him, caretaking issue has been ham-fistedly frozen for Max Singer (a defense expert). circumstances change for the better.” and truth-telling are insufficient. He two decades. believes in Israeli activism that forces The upshot of their debate: Apply Amidror too dislikes the drive for the adversary onto the defensive But in which direction should Israel Obama’s first rule of governance. “Don’t unilateral Israeli initiatives. “A partial and creates advantageous new go? Fortify or vitiate the -led do stupid things.” It is wiser for Israel withdrawal would likely increase, rather situations. This means maneuvering dictatorship in ? Redeploy to defer action than to take steps that than decrease, Palestinian , and expanding in Jerusalem and from parts of the West Bank, or re-assert threaten to make a bad situation worse. Prof. Efraim Inbar as Palestinians would be motivated to the Judean/Samarian heartland. Israel’s sovereign presence in major push harder for total Israeli withdrawal. “Settlements are forward outposts parts of Judea and Samaria through Frisch mapped out five possible The caretaker option is probably On the other hand, Israeli annexation of Zionism, in addition to their being renewed building? Israeli approaches: caretaker conflict the most feasible, he feels; unilateral would inflame Palestinian passions and Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman critical to Israel’s military deployment in management, creative friction, withdrawal is the least; and none of the engender severe opposition to Israel the territories. Where there is a farmer Do withdrawals toward the coastal plain constructive chaos, unilateral options is ideal. In every case, Israel will abroad.” Along these lines, Singer says that on his land,” he says, “the army has the offer a saner and safer future for Israel; withdrawal, and unilateral annexation. have to maintain a significant military Washington and Brussels must strength to rule.” or is building a united and “greater” presence in Judea and Samaria. “This is not the time to embark on robustly make clear their distaste for Jerusalem from to Jaffa the useless experiments or risky unilateral Palestinian denial of the Jewish People’s DNA that holds the key to the future of Frisch completely dismisses a sixth initiatives, either in the hope of connection to the land of Israel and Israel and Zionism – as General Gershon option: Rapid establishment of a full- preparing the ground for an eventual Jerusalem. They should modify their Hacohen argues? fledged Palestinian state. Neither he nor Palestinian state or in the hope of aid programs to reduce Palestinian use his colleagues view this as feasible or thwarting it. When standing on the of foreign money to support terror; Muddle through, or attempt a radical advisable in the foreseeable future. edge of a cliff, it is wiser to keep determinedly defend free speech in paradigm shift? still than to step forward,” Amidror Palestinian society; and act to resettle Inbar says that “Israelis have gradually concludes. outside of Israel. These questions have been argued come to realize that at present the out in recent months in the seminar Palestinians are neither a partner for Lerman agrees, noting that many Singer also feels that Israel should rooms and on the website of the Begin- comprehensive peace nor capable factors bind both Prime Minister improve its public diplomacy “by Sadat Center for Strategic Studies by of establishing a viable state, Netanyahu and Opposition Leader moving from appeasement to truth- center associates, including Maj. Gen. unfortunately. The Palestinian Authority Herzog to their current position telling.” Specifically, Israel should Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen (res.) Gershon Hacohen, Maj. Gen. Prof. Hillel Frisch has no intention of accepting a Jewish of genuine but hung support for formally adopt the report of Israel CONFERENCE The Day After Abbas

The BESA Center held a June conference which examined scenarios for the Palestinian Authority after the retirement or departure of Mahmoud Abbas. Lectures related to the expected battles for succession among Palestinian leadership, Israel’s diplomatic dilemmas, and likely international scenarios. Might this transition be a watershed moment, forcing a reassessment of the feasible contours of accommodating Palestinian independence?

of Immigrant Elkin added that Israel continues to In fact, we should be focusing on the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic In a fascinating presentation, the former Absorption make a major mistake by ignoring the day before Abbas goes to improve the Studies associates agreed with Minister Coordinator of Government Activities 6 and Minister of education towards hate of Israel that is situation and build a better basis for Elkin about the need for a new Israeli in the Territories, Maj. Gen. (res.) Eitan 7 Jerusalem Affairs prevalent in the PA. “This is the source peace; not on the day after Abbas,” he paradigm regarding the Palestinians, Dangot, explained how Israel does and (), and Amir of evil that eventually leads to terrorism, said. but disagreed which way to go. Lt. probably can maintain the status quo. Peretz MK, former and which of course dims the likelihood Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar argued Defense Minister of any practical compromises for peace “Time is not on our side. Every day for the recognition of a series of mini- Also addressing the conference were (Zionist Union), as in future.” that we fail to reinforce PA institutions states in the West Bank, what he calls Ehud Yaari, Arab affairs commentator well as experts. and leadership increases the chances “Palestinian emirates.” Maj. Gen. for Israel TV2 News, Prof. As'ad Minister Ze'ev Elkin Peretz attacked Elkin and the Israeli that we’ll get ISIS and Al Qaeda and (res.) Gershon Hacohen called for Ghanem of Haifa U., and Prof. Hillel Elkin said that Israel right wing for ignoring and isolating Hamas in the West Bank after Abbas.” repudiation of the two state construct Frisch and Prof. Jonathan Rynhold of PA President Mahmoud Abbas is old, must prepare itself for a long period of Abbas over the years. “We will all yet Peretz called on the Israeli government and instead for long-term struggle the BESA Center. sick and tired. He has little to show for instability and even chaos in the West miss Abu Mazen,” he said. “Israel does to freeze all settlement construction; for complete Israeli sovereignty in the his incorrigible efforts at isolating Israel Bank, in the era after Abbas. “I don’t see not have the power or the right to to permit much greater numbers of territories. Prof. Efraim Inbar argued for diplomatically or forcing Israel into any mechanism for an orderly transition organize Palestinian leadership at will, Palestinian workers into Israel; and to maintaining the status quo. hasty withdrawals. of power, or new elections,” he said. but it should act to strengthen the PA. remove roadblocks in the West Bank.” “There are many competing centers His regime is viewed as utterly corrupt of power in the PA, ranging from the by 95.5 percent of Palestinians party (Fatah), the movement (PLO), (according to a recent Palestinian the bureaucracy (PA), multiple formal poll). The tens of billions of dollars in security organs, and many militias, international aid he has swallowed have gangs and clans. We could see open failed to build any real institutional warfare among these elements.” basis for good or democratic Palestinian government. “Meanwhile, Israel must maintain border security, ensure the safety of Abbas’ underlings are jockeying Jewish residents in Judea and Samaria, aggressively around him for pole handle water and other infrastructure position in the battle to succeed him as matters, and deal with Palestinian West Bank despot. Hamas, too, smells diplomatic initiatives that attack Israel.” blood. His conclusion: Israel may need to Where does leave Israel? That was the consider a “paradigm change” with focus of a June conference on “The Day regard to administration of the After Abbas,” which was addressed by territories; meaning greater Israeli Former Defense Minister Amir Peretz Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen. Prof. Efraim Inbar, Minister Ze'ev Elkin, Ehud Yaari and Maj. Gen. (res.) Eitan Dangot (l. to r.) Ze’ev Elkin, who was then the Minister intervention. CONFERENCE IDF Challenges

In March, the BESA Center held a day-long conference which asked: How can and should the IDF adapt to meet new threats, and respond to changes in Israeli society?

Brig. Gen. (res.) Moni Chorev, Mr. Uzi Rubin, Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, Mr. Ofer Shelach MK and Dr. Eitan Shamir (l. to r.) Dr. Eitan Shamir, Dr. Eado Hecht, Maj. Gen. Yair Golan and Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen (l. to r.) 8 9

Mr. Ofer Shelah MK critiqued the IDF’s over-reliance on Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, the The March conference was held in honor (), who was a American weaponry and operational Rosshandler Fellow at the BESA Center, of Mr. Muzi Wertheim, a founder and defense correspondent concepts. outlined Israel’s intelligence challenges supporter of the Begin-Sadat Center and military analyst for with regard to these adversaries. for Strategic Studies. (Sorrowfully, Mr. 25 years, spoke of the Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser of Wertheim passed away in August). changes needed in the the JCPA (former head of research in Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman of the IDF, with an emphasis on IDF Intelligence and director general BESA Center presented the welter of The center has published a collection clear decision-making. of the Ministry of Strategic Affairs) and constraints that Israel’s allies place on of the lectures given at the conference Dr. Edward Luttwak of the Center for Israel in responding to regional threats. (Hebrew), and posted videos of the Brig. Gen. (res.) Strategic and International Studies in lectures on its website. Maharan Prozenper, Washington outlined the threat map Prof. Gabi Ben-Dor of Haifa U. and Prof. former financial advisor for Israel, which starts with Iran and Udi Lebel of the BESA Center and Ariel to the IDF Chief of Staff its allies, and continues to the Sunni U. related to the challenges of keeping and chair of the army extremist forces operation in Syria and the Israeli public resilient over the long Maj. Gen. Yair Golan advisory committee to Sinai. term and the IDF above the left-right the Ministry of Finance, ideological fray. Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, IDF Deputy Chief explained that the state of Staff, headlined the conference with and army budgeting process. The a talk on the importance of multi-year budget, he said, suffers from political planning. (In the process, he made vicissitudes, and does not truly prioritize some controversial remarks about long-term priorities. Israel’s ties with , which were widely reported in the media). But Brig. Gen. (res.) Moni Chorev of the Golan wasn’t present for the sharp BESA Center critiqued the IDF’s de- criticism of IDF planning that was emphasis on major ground formations. expressed by expert speakers at the Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen and conference. Dr. Eitan Shamir of the BESA Center

Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser Dr. Edward Luttwak Should ISIS be Wiped Out?

Prof. Efraim Inbar sparks an international debate by arguing that the West should not seek the destruction of ISIS, only its weakening. His colleagues strongly disagree.

In August, Prof. Efraim Inbar published from ISIS in order to legitimize Iran ISIS stands. Furthermore, the continued a BESA Center Perspectives Paper in as a “responsible actor” that will, existence of ISIS and its horrors is a which he controversially argued that supposedly, fight ISIS in the Middle gift to Ayatollah Khamenei. He uses it a weak but functioning ISIS is actually East. This was part of the Obama to lure Turkey, blame the Saudis, and useful. administration’s rationale for its rotten justify the ravages inflicted on Sunnis in nuclear deal with Iran. Iraq and Syria by Iran's proxies.” 10 “The continued existence of ISIS can 11 undermine the appeal of the caliphate The reactions to Inbar’s article came fast Lerman similarly rejected President among radical Muslims; keep bad actors – as befits a place of intellectual ferment Obama’s raw, realist attempt to portray focused on one another rather than and policy creativity like the BESA Iran and ISIS as balancing rivals. The on Western targets; and hamper Iran’s Center. Inbar’s colleague, Col. (res.) Dr. Western and Sunni “camp of stability,” quest for regional hegemony,” Inbar Eran Lerman (a former deputy director he says, must craft a strategy that sees wrote. of Israel’s National Security Council), all Islamists – Iran, ISIS, and the Ikhwan published a counter-article declaring (Moslem Brotherhood) – as enemies. “A lingering ISIS would help undermine that the continued existence of ISIS “Together, these partners should Tehran’s ambitious plan for domination fortifies, rather than enervates, Iran’s outline a phased campaign that begins of the Middle East, while a complete quest for hegemony. “The destruction with the destruction of ISIS, moves on Prof. Efraim Inbar Prof. Steven David defeat of ISIS would only enhance of IS should be the first stage in a to the marginalization of the Moslem Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman. Iranian hegemony, buttress Russia’s campaign designed ultimately to isolate Brotherhood, and ultimately isolates the role in the region, and prolong Syrian and contain Iran,” he wrote. Iranian regime and takes back the gains inability to eradicate a pressing threat,” Inbar is standing his ground. To Dr. of countries around the world, with President Bashar Assad’s tyranny.” it made in the name of fighting ISIS.” Prof. David wrote. Lerman’s argument that ISIS excuses Shiite (Iranian/) and other Lerman admitted that Inbar’s hard- Iran’s drive for regional hegemony, Sunni networks to serve them. Inbar’s argument was so unusual knuckled, realist point of view reflects Paraphrasing the Roman senator Cato, “In the heart of the Middle East, Inbar points out that Iran doesn’t need that the most conservative Iranian the anguish felt by many in Israel and Lerman concluded his article thus: ISIS thumbs its nose at the world, this excuse. To Prof. David’s argument Earlier this year, Prof. Hillel Frisch newspaper, Kayhan (which is considered across the region as they watch the Raqqa Delenda Est, i.e., the capital of killing hundreds of innocents while that the success of ISIS exposes conducted a study on the threat to the mouthpiece of Supreme Leader US administration and others get their the ISIS state needs to be taken and the destabilizing a critical region. What Western weakness, Inbar responds Israeli national security posed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), highlighted priorities wrong, by defining Iran as organization destroyed. does this say about the West’s ability that Western weakness is much more ISIS. He concluded that that Israel Inbar’s views on its front page with the an asset and a potential ally in the war to protect its own? With each terrorist manifest through Obama’s capitulation should remain militarily neutral in headline: “A Zionist think tank leader against the so-called caliphate. Inbar was similarly challenged by outrage and triumphant claim of to Rouhani, Assad and Vladimir Putin the conflict with ISIS, as long as those says Islamic State is useful in the battle another colleague, Prof. Steven responsibility from ISIS, the West’s than it is to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi of fighting ISIS, especially Iran, do not against Iran. Don’t demolish ISIS!” “Even so, a strategy that leaves ISIS David of Johns Hopkins University (a credibility shrinks. If a collection of the ISIS. The threat to the West of Iranian cross Israel’s “red lines” by introducing Inbar’s “defense of ISIS” is “proof that bruised but alive would pose serious member of the International Academic world’s most powerful states cannot nuclear weapons and Iranian Mideast advanced weaponry to the region or by the terrorist infidels (i.e., ISIS) represent dangers. The norm that terror cannot Advisory Board of the Begin-Sadat eliminate an ongoing threat to its hegemony (and of Russian revanchism attempting to set-up bases of terror on the Zionists and America in their battle be tolerated is a precious one…and Center). “Defeating ISIS and the horror it interests perpetuated by maybe 30,000 in Europe) is far greater than the Israel’s borders. against Iran,” editorialized Kayhan. the coordinated Western campaign perpetuates requires nothing less than fanatics armed with little more than terrorist nuisance of ISIS. against ISIS is a development Israelis the elimination of its caliphate. Through pick-up trucks, the ability of the West to Of course, Inbar wasn’t seeking to and others should welcome, not control of territory, ISIS is able to inspire ensure the security of its own countries And to the argument that destruction of defend ISIS at all, but rather was disparage. Moreover, the total defeat of and train recruits, to direct terrorist – to say nothing of creating a liberal Baghdadi’s caliphate will cap terrorism, pointing to the fact that the Obama ISIS on the battlefield likely would lead attacks, and to demonstrate the West's world order – is called into question.” Inbar retorts that Islamic insurgents administration has inflated the threat to the collapse of the ideas for which already are deeply embedded in dozens Evaluating the Iran Deal One Year Later

One year later, BESA Center experts have not changed their minds about the very problematic contours of the JCPOA that the American administration and its allies concluded with Iran. Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror and Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman dispute President Obama’s assertion in August that “even Israel” admits in retrospect that the US was right to sign the nuclear deal with Iran.

Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman

General Amidror, the Anne and Greg Proponents of the agreement boast Iran is growing stronger militarily, Dr. Lerman served for six years because there is no point in fighting a Israel. One might have expected that Rosshandler Senior Fellow at the BESA about the few years’ delay, pointing out thanks to the acquisition of modern as deputy for foreign policy and lost battle – at least until January 2017. the president and his secretary of Center, was National Security Advisor that the Iranians had a similar capability weapons; economically, thanks to major international affairs at the Israel state would maximize their remaining to the Prime Minister of Israel until 2.5 prior to the deal. But this argument investments and the procurement of National Security Council, and dealt Other critics of the government, leverage on Iran to bring these practices years ago, and played a significant role is disingenuous. Iran’s capability was large purchase contracts with countries extensively with the Iranian nuclear meanwhile, believe that because the to an end. What they are doing instead in the dialogue between Jerusalem and hardly similar when most of the world around the world; and politically, challenge. JCPOA (as almost everyone is willing to – in looking for ways to enable Iran Washington over how to confront Iran’s was applying pressure and imposing because it now has both deal-procured acknowledge) has given us a few years’ to access dollars, among other things nuclear weapons drive. debilitating sanctions on its economy. immunity and much more money One year on, the nuclear deal with breathing space, Israel should turn her – is the opposite of what their own with which to fund Iran clearly has made the region energies to other issues, particularly language would have led us (or Iran) to I continue to believe that the US its emissaries, from and the world more dangerous, those concerning the Palestinians. None believe. 12 lost a historic opportunity to use its Hezbollah to Hamas. notwithstanding the temporary respite of these views should be interpreted, 13 clear advantage at the start of the won in Iran's pursuit of a nuclear however, as having reversed the negotiations to achieve more significant Israel cannot remain weapon. The JCPOA has in no way broadly held belief that the JCPOA accomplishments. Iran was the weak indifferent to the moderated Iran's stance, nor made it a was, and is, a bad deal – and certainly side in the negotiations, but the US consequences of the legitimate member of the community far worse than what could have been did not properly use the cards it deal. As it turned out, of nations. achieved, given the immense levers the held, making concessions instead of the US was determined P5+1 were in a position to use at the extracting them. not to use the military The Obama administration's advocacy time. option, contrary to its of warmer relations with Tehran Instead of demanding the dismantling promises. If Iran does appears totally removed from realities It is true that the JCPOA was never of Iranian nuclear capability, the US left go for the bomb, it will on the ground. Iran is using its new meant to resolve any issue other Iran with its full capability concerning therefore be up to Israel legal position to obscure, rather than than the nuclear program. But the enriched uranium – only at a reduced to be prepared to act clarify, past activities and present administration is well aware of Iran’s scale and subject to strict monitoring. independently. Obama inventories. Its work on ballistic missiles support for terrorist organizations It is by no means clear that monitoring Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror administration efforts and on the acquisition of materials like Hezbollah, and its threats towards has, in fact, become any stricter – the to hide the negotiations for Iran's non-conventional weapons opposite appears to be the case. Even At the end of the deal, the Iranians will from Israel, its shirking of commitments arsenal continues apace; repression worse, the deal allows Iran to advance have the same capability, but without to Israel, and the end result – justify has worsened; regional subversion is at in two important fields related to its global opposition and certainly without pessimism in Jerusalem. its peak; and exterminatory positions nuclear future. sanctions. Fifteen years may seem a towards Israel are openly put forward. long time to a president or a prime However, it is possible that First, Iran can continue developing minister who is focused on his term in Washington's approach might change. Silence can be misleading. The absence the next generation of centrifuges for office, but it is the blink of an eye to a To this end, Israel must build a close of ongoing overt opposition to the enrichment. Second, Iran can continue nation. working relationship with the new US deal by Israeli government officials developing heavy long-distance administration in 2017. Iran is the only should not be misconstrued as a sign missiles. But the biggest problem with The scope of the deal's damage is country that has the potential to pose of complacency. Nor should the points the deal lies in the fact that Iran has wider still. It has turned Iran into a a threat to the existence of Israel. Israel raised by former officials and leaders – been given the legitimacy to maintain, superpower that aspires to become has no choice but to prepare for the challenging Prime Minister Netanyahu's develop, and move forward along the a major influencer throughout the possibility that it may have to eliminate priorities and decrying what they path of uranium enrichment after the Middle East. This is hardly a new goal that threat on its own if such potential describe as his alarmist style – be read deal. This legitimacy will allow Iran to for Iran, but now that it is perceived as is realized. At the same time, Israel as signs of acceptance of Obama's get much closer to a nuclear bomb by the country that made the US bend to must try to recruit the US to join in this arguments in favor of the deal. The the time the deal expires. its will, Iran sees itself differently and is tremendous effort. government has simply shifted gears, Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman. seen differently by others. NEW BESA CENTER RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Efraim Inbar Concludes 25-Year Tenure Efraim Karsh Becomes Director of the BESA Center as Founding Director of the Center

Prof. Efraim Karsh has become Prof. Efraim Inbar has formally director of the Begin-Sadat Center retired from the political for Strategic Studies. He succeeds science department at Bar-Ilan Prof. Efraim Inbar, who has led the University, and handed over center since its formation in 1993. the BESA Center director's chair. Inbar remains a senior research associate at the center.

Prof. Efraim Inbar Prof. Efraim Karsh

A renowned authority on Middle Eastern He is editor of the Middle East Quarterly Inbar founded the Bar-Ilan University His magnum opus on Rabin and Israel’s political-strategic committee of the history and politics, Prof. Karsh taught and Israel Affairs academic journals, Center for Strategic Studies in 1991, National Security (1999) is considered the Israeli National Planning Council and 14 for 25 years at King’s College London, and has published op-ed articles in The Prof. Udi Lebel which was renamed the Begin-Sadat ultimate book on this topic, and it won chairman of the Ministry of Education 15 where he founded and directed the Times, Wall Street Journal, Los Center for Strategic Studies in 1993. the Award of Excellence from Israel’s committee for national security Middle East and Mediterranean Studies Angeles Times, London Times, Der Spiegel, Joins the BESA He has led the center to a position of National Council for Commemorating curriculum. Program (currently the Institute of and many other global newspapers. Center sterling global stature. Israel’s Prime Ministers. Middle Eastern Studies). In 2013 he “Few scholars anywhere can match joined Bar-Ilan University as professor of In his 2015 book, The Tail Wags the Dog: Over these years, the center has He also has edited 13 books of collected Efraim Inbar’s achievement in building political science. International Politics and the Middle East published over 500 original research scholarly articles, and written over the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic (Bloomsbury), Karsh debunks Edward studies and policy papers, plus 20 70 articles in professional journals Studies from the ground up into an He has been a visiting professor at Said’s “Orientalist” notion that the books. It has conducted more than 450 including Armed Forces and Society, internationally-renowned think tank Harvard and Columbia universities, the agonies of the Middle East are traceable symposia and conferences for defense, Defense Analysis, Jerusalem Journal of with real impact,” says the noted Sorbonne, and the London School of to the rough handling of the region military industry, and intelligence and International Relations, Journal of Peace strategist Prof. Yehezkel Dror of the Economics, and a research associate at by Western powers – first European foreign policy specialists, as well as Research, Journal of Strategic Studies, Hebrew University. the International Institute for Strategic colonialists, then American cold warriors. diplomats, businesspeople, academics Middle East Journal, Political Science Studies and the Wilson Center’s Kennan and politicians. Quarterly, Review of International Studies, Dror has been a member of the center’s Institute for Advanced Russian Studies. Karsh argues that the view of Moslems Security Studies, Survival and Terrorism International Academic Advisory In 2011-12 he served as director of the and Arabs as victims – a view that The center also has developed and Political Violence. Board for two decades. “Efraim Inbar’s Philadelphia-based think tank, the underlies US President Barack Obama’s cooperative relations with leading accomplishment is heroic and almost Middle East Forum. outreach to Iran – is misguided. Instead, strategic research institutes throughout He has served as visiting professor at miraculous,” he says. “Both critical Karsh propounds a radically different the world, from Ankara to Washington Georgetown, Johns Hopkins and Boston scholarship, and the State of Israel, Prof. Karsh has authored over 100 interpretation, that Middle Eastern Prof. Udi Lebel and from London to Seoul. The center’s Universities. He was a fellow at the have been very well served by his wise scholarly articles and sixteen books, history has in fact been the culmination impact on Israeli and global discourse Woodrow Wilson International Center leadership.” including Betrayed (Yale, 2010); of long existing indigenous trends, regarding regional strategic challenges for Scholars in Washington and at the Islamic Imperialism: A History (Yale, 2006); passions and patterns of behavior. Prof. Udi Lebel (Ph.D. King's College, has been significant. International Institute for Strategic Arafat’s War: The Man and his Battle for London U.), a specialist in civil- Studies in London; and has been a Israeli Conquest (Grove, 2003); Empires “I intend to build on my predecessor’s military relations, has joined the Inbar’s area of specialization is the Manfred Warner NATO and Onassis of the Sand: The Struggle for Mastery incredible achievements,” says Karsh. Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic politics and strategy of Israeli national Fellow. He has lectured at more than 100 in the Middle East 1798-1923 (Harvard, “Prof. Inbar built Israel’s top security security. He has authored five books, academic institutions on four continents, Studies as a research associate. He 1999); Fabricating Israeli History: The think tank from scratch, and has earned including Outcast Countries in the World including Harvard, MIT, Columbia, studies the political psychology of “New Historians” (Routledge, 1997); The it a sterling international reputation for Community (1985), War and Peace in Oxford, Sorbonne and Yale universities. Gulf Conflict 1990-1991 (Princeton, 1993); strategic prescience and intellectual bereavement; trauma and national Israeli Politics. Labor Party Positions on Saddam Hussein: A Political Biography (The fearlessness. The center will continue to memory; and the sociology National Security (1991), The Israeli-Turkish Prof. Inbar served in the Israel Defense Free Press, 1991); The Soviet Union and offer fresh thinking on Israel’s key defense, of security communities. He is Entente (2001), and Israel's National Forces as a paratrooper, and served in Syria (Routledge, 1988); and Neutrality political, and diplomatic challenges in a an associate professor at Ariel Security: Issues and Challenges since the reserve at the IDF Staff and Command and Small States (Routledge, 1988). rapidly-changing Middle East.” University. (2008). College. He was a member of the INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE Saudi Arabia, the Gulf and the New Regional Landscape

In June, experts from Belgium, Bahrain, , , India, the UK, US and Israel convened at the BESA Center and at Haifa’s National Security Studies Center for a two-day international conference to study Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror (BESA Center) developments in Saudi Arabia and the stressed that Saudi Arabia was experiencing trauma caused Gulf. Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum (BESA) by the Iran deal and American and Dr. Dan Schueftan (NSSC) retrenchment. As it assessed its new regional role, he explained, Prof. Efraim Inbar with Prof. Michael Herb, Prof. P.R. Kumaraswamy, and Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi (l. to r.) co-organized the conclave. Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen Prof. Bob Lieber, Dr. Max Singer and Prof. Norman Bailey (l. to r.) it would behoove Riyadh to consider Israel as a partner in a large peace framework. But greatly coincided, such as counter- they did not turn civilian into nuclear for that to come about, he concluded, terrorism, Syria, and Yemen. use. Saudi Arabia needed to pressure the Palestinians to cooperate. Dr. Guido Steinberg (Stiftung position or attack Iran. While the Shiites Prof. Robert Lieber (Georgetown Dr. Dan Schueftan (National Security Dr. Alon Levkowitz (BESA Center), 16 Wissenschaft und Politik) spoke on were a constant source of worry for U.) noted that the US relationship Studies Center) spoke about the speaking on , Asia and the GCC, Ambassador John Jenkins (IISS 17 domestic security in Saudi Arabia, the House of Saud, they were too few with Saudi Arabia had been seriously rationale behind Israel’s relations remarked that Beijing sees the GCC Bahrain) is a world expert on the Persian warning that if he was an adviser to the and despised by too many to be an damaged by the shift in longstanding with regional allies. With respect to countries as an important part of its Gulf and radical Islam. He pointed Saudi authorities, he would tell them existential threat. US foreign policy strategy under the countries like Saudi Arabia, Morocco, security, due to its heavy investment in out how the various GCC states were to protect the Prophet’s Mosque in administration of President Obama. and Jordan, there is a commonality of the Gulf region. and South Korea dealing with the present . Saudi Medina against an attack. Steinberg’s His policies of retrenchment and interests in combating Iran and internal are interested in a agreement Arabia’s young people, for example, prescient warning was issued on June retreat from American foreign policy radical threats, particularly the Muslim with the GCC, and China is involving have great hopes for young Minister 21. Indeed and alas, an Islamic State commitments had undercut all three Brotherhood. Yet there could not be Israel, since with the railroad it plans to of Defense, Muhammad bin Salman, suicide bomber struck the holy site just component of this alliance: deterrence, an open alliance, because the political build between Eilat and Haifa, it will be while the UAE showered its citizens two weeks later, on July 4. defense, and especially reassurance. costs of open cooperation outweigh able to transship commodities from the with wealth and prestige. Bahrain kept the benefits. GCC to the Mediterranean and beyond. a tight lid on its Shiite majority, while Prof. Gregory Gause (Texas A & M U.) Prof. P R Kumarswamy (Jawaharlal Oman stood at a slight distance from its discussed Saudi Arabia’s King Salman. Nehru U.) discussed Indian-GCC Prof. Michael Herb (Georgia State U.) GCC allies. He remarked that many observers relations, noting that Delhi had a huge discussed Gulf strategies for dealing had stressed Salman was radically economic engagement with the region with low oil prices. These include Other presentations were made by changing Saudi policies for a post- in energy imports, bilateral trade, labor borrowing, raising , cutting Anne Sunik (German Institute of Global oil era, inaugurating a less cautious migration and remittances. Prime spending, and cutting subsidies. Yet and Area Studies), who discussed and more muscular foreign policy, Minister Narendra Modi has realized this many of these make no sense in the agreement and discord in the GCC; and transferring power to the next and made Gulf relations a priority. Gulf as they have a very serious political Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi (Middle East generation of the Saudi royal family. But cost. Forum) who analyzed the GCC efforts in in fact the labor economy would not Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum Prof. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen the Syrian civil war; Dr. Efrat Aviv (BESA be able to adjust to economic change, (Washington U.) addressed the Prof. Meir Litvak ( Center) Center), who outlined the Saudi-Turkish and foreign policy change was limited audience on Qatar under Amir Tamim. explained the strategic rivalry between alliance; and Prof. Dr. Robert Kappel to Yemen where the Saudis were least Dr. Paul Rivlin (Moshe Dayan Center) He observed that while Qatar will Iran and Saudi Arabia as based both on (German Institute of Global and Area likely to come into conflict with Iran. maintained that in the short term, as a continue be involved in diplomacy and power politics and competing religious Studies) who offered observations on Salman’s main impact has been limited result of the chaos brought about by mediation, it would soon face the social Dr. Dan Schueftan visions, Sunni (Saudi Arabia) and Shiite German and EU Gulf policy. to bringing his family faction to the fore. the Arab uprisings, the Gulf regimes and financial pressures of hosting the (Iran). The Iranians believe they have enjoyed increased legitimacy as a 2022 World Cup. Dr. Yoel Guzansky (INSS) discussed surrounded the Saudis in Iraq, Yemen, In summing up the conference, Prof. Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum (BESA Center) result of their stability and were not nuclear proliferation in the Arabian Lebanon and Syria, while the Saudi feel Gabriel Ben-Dor (Haifa U.) noted discussed Saudi Arabia’s minority Shiite threatened by the drop in the price Clarisse Pasztory ( Peninsula after the Iran deal, explaining weakened by the nuclear agreement that the Gulf regimes do not only population. He noted that they were of oil. Yet, he cautioned, this bargain External Action Service), maintained that the GCC countries were not and US retrenchment. This tension is so buy popular support. They also enjoy the Wahhabi regime’s “ultimate other,” would not be enough in the long term, that the EU and the Gulf countries prepared to waive their rights to enrich deep that it will not be resolved it the legitimacy, a political culture, and a always sacrificed when the government as alternatives to reliance and oil were did not agree on everything, but did nuclear fuel. They would therefore future, he concluded. tradition that has proven surprisingly wanted to shore up its domestic not readily forthcoming. cooperate in areas where interests require strict monitoring to ensure that resilient. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE Strategic Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean

In partnership with B’nai B’rith International, the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies hosted in February the first conference of its kind in Israel on Mediterranean security, and specifically on the Eastern Mediterranean as a strategic environment.

B’nai B’rith International executive vice president Dan Mariaschin, former Italian foreign minister Giulio Terzi, Greek minister of defense Panos Kammenos, and Conference of Prof. David Abulafia, Dr. Michael Doran and Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead, Mr. Gary P. Saltzman and Col. (res.) Presidents executive vice president Malcolm Hoenlein (l. to r.) Mr. Dan Mariaschin (l. to r.) Dr. Eran Lerman (l. to r.)

“The Eastern Mediterranean has Islam, the problematic behavior of dangers and instability, fueled by the strong commitment to the role of the on Euro-med cooperation, discussed Mediterranean terms. “Israel has an 18 become a key area for global security, Turkey, and his country’s new alliance loss of US authority in the region. sea in Israel's future, and linked it to the the role that the “Union for the interest in anchoring its identity in 19 with two dangerous challenges, and an with Israel. present challenge of protecting Israel's Mediterranean” could play in regional the Mediterranean’s multi-colored important opportunity,” says Col. (res.) This was followed by a comprehensive EEZ and sustaining regional stability cooperation. Ambassador Arye Mekel landscape; as opposed to floundering Dr. Eran Lerman of the BESA Center, Opening the conference was Prof. survey of the changing strategic against the rising threats. of the BESA Center (former Israeli as an isolated, super-modern Jewish who co-convened the conference with David Abulafia of Cambridge dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean, envoy to Greece) focused on strategic state in a hostile and deteriorating Arab Mr. Alan Schneider, director of the B’nai University, scion of a family which and the rising danger of Islamist terror Prof. Hillel Frisch of the BESA Center commonalities between Israel, Greece Middle East environment,” Lerman says. B’rith World Center in Jerusalem. has left its mark on Mediterranean and subversion. Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov surveyed radical Islamist organizations and Cyprus. history, and the author of The Great Sea. Amidror offered the Israeli point of operating in the region. Dr. Amit Mor, Among the B'nai B'rith International “The challenges are the regional Abulafia reminded participants that view; former Greek Minister of Internal among Israel's leading energy experts, Dr. Lerman published a BESA Center leaders who participated in the refugee crisis due to chaotic conditions trade and cultural links have existed Security Vassilis Kikilias gave a spirited explored the implications of the gas study in March, The Mediterranean conference were Mr. Gary P. Saltzman, in Syria, Libya and beyond; and the across the Mediterranean since the explanation of his country's views; and finds in the Eastern Mediterranean for as a Strategic Environment: Learning President; Mr. Dan Mariaschin, growing hold upon Mediterranean dawn of civilization; but warned against former Israeli Ambassador in Egypt Zvi regional cooperation. a New Geopolitical Language, which Executive Vice President; Mr. Irving shores of totalitarian Islamism in its the impact of present divisive trends. Mazel sounded the alarm as to Egypt’s argues that it is time to let go of the Silver and Mr. Martin Oliner – who various forms. The opportunity lies in Dr. Michael Doran of the Hudson economic and political prospects. Avivit Bar Ilan, the leading authority old colonial concept, the “Middle generously supported the conference. energy cooperation between Israel, Institute and Prof. Efraim Inbar of the in the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs East,” and re-learn to think in Egypt, Jordan, Greece and Cyprus (with BESA Center also spoke of strategic Adding to the understanding of this a role for ); and perhaps with Turkey highly complex strategic landscape too.” were scholars and practitioners from France (Bruno Tertrais, who The conference was capped by related, among other, to the West's addresses from Mr. Panos Kammenos, growing military involvement in the Greek Minister of Defense; Mr. Libya), Cyprus (DCM Michalis Firillas), Giulio Terzi, former Foreign Minister and Turkey (scholar and journalist of Italy; and Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Burak Bekdil). The range of reaction Gilead, head of the politico-military in the international community to department in the Israel Ministry of these challenges was discussed by Dr. Defense. Visiting members of the Jonathan Rynhold; by the German DCM Conference of Presidents of Major in Israel Monica Iwersen; and by Russia American Jewish Organizations expert Dr. Anna Geifman. participated in this session. Dr. Ehud Eiran of Haifa University Kammenos offered a comprehensive presented the findings of an ongoing and very forceful articulation of project on Mediterranean security, Panos Kammenos, Greek Minister of Defense Dr. Amit Mor, Mr. Alan Schneider, Mr. Vassilis Kikilias and Ambassador Zvi Mazel (l. to r.) Mr. Martin Oliner Greece’s views on the dangers of radical reminding participants of Ben Gurion's CONFERENCE SEMINAR Minorities in the Middle East Greece’s Strategic Role in the Eastern Mediterranean In January 2016, the center held a conference on minorities in the Middle East. Lecturers included Prof. Ofra Bengio (Dayan Center, on the Kurds), Dr. Jocelyne Cesari (Georgetown U. and Birmingham U.), Prof. Hillel Frisch (BESA In the spring, the center held a Center, on Israeli Arabs), Dr. Efrat Aviv (BESA Center, on Jews in Turkey), Prof. Jonathan Fox seminar with colleagues from the (BESA Center), Prof. Matthias Basedau (German University of Piraeus in Greece, as part Institute of Global and Area Studies), Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum (BESA Center, on Shiites of its Peretz and Sheindel Sherman in Saudi Arabia), and Dr. Eldad Pardo (Truman Strategic Dialogues Program. Institute, on minorities in Iran). Prof. Ofra Bengio, Prof. Hillel Frisch, Dr. Efrat Aviv and Ambassador Arye Mekel Dr. Jocelyne Cesari (l. to r.)

Prof. Aristotle Tziampiris spoke on continuity and supports the Greek position, which gives the Greeks a change in Greece's Eastern Mediterranean foreign double vote within EU institutions.” policy. Prof. Athanassios Platias spoke on sources of instability in the Eastern Mediterranean. Prof. Petros “A new geopolitical bloc is emerging that has Liacouras and Prof. Nikolaos Farantouris spoke on military and political significance, and stands as a energy resources and partnerships. counterweight to Turkish ambitions. Stronger Israeli relations with Greece and Cyprus may also serve Simultaneously, the center published Ambassador to encourage Turkey to show more flexibility in Arye Mekel’s paper entitled “A New Geopolitical negotiations regarding normalization of ties between Bloc is Born in the Eastern Mediterranean: Israel, Ankara and Jerusalem,” Mekel wrote. Greece and Cyprus.” Mekel says that from an Israeli 20 perspective, the recent strengthening of alliance Indeed, Turkey signed a reconciliation accord with 21 Israel in August. Prof. Jonathan Fox, Prof. Matthias Basedau, Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum ties with Greece and Cyprus constitutes a win-win Dr. Efrat Aviv and Dr. Eldad Pardo (l. to r.) situation. Ambassador Mekel, a senior research associate at the “Greece is ready right now to assist Israel within the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, served as European Union, as it proved recently when it led Israel's envoy to Greece from 2010 to 2014. He was the opposition to labeling settlement products. This also deputy Israeli ambassador to the UN, diplomatic SEMINAR represents a sharp change in Greek policy within advisor to Prime Minister Shamir, and spokesman of the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Strategic Environment of India the European Union. Cyprus almost automatically In September, the center held a seminar with the Indian Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA), as part of its Peretz and Sheindel Sherman Strategic Dialogues Program.

Among the Indian colleagues participating were Ambassador Jayant Prasad (speaking on India’s Foreign Policy), Gp. Cpt. (retd.) Dr. Ajey Lele (India’s Strategic Engagement with Southeast Asia), Dr. Meena Singh Roy (India and West Asia), S. Samuel C. Rajiv (The India- Dr. A. Lele, S. Rajiv, Ambassador Prasad, Dr. M. Kedar, Dr. M. Singh Roy, Israel Maturing Partnership), and Indian Prof. P. Liacouras, Prof. N. Farantouris, Greek embassy personnel, Prof. A. Tziampiris, and Mr. Uzi Rubin (l. to r.) the Ambassador of Cyprus, Prof. A. Platias and Prof. E. Inbar. Ambassador to Israel, Mr. Pavan Kapoor. NEW PUBLICATIONS

The Foreign Policy of Qatar Implications of US Disengagement Indian Responses to Israel's Dr. Gil Feiler | November 2016 from the Middle East Gaza Operations Prof. Efraim Inbar | July 2016 S. Samuel C. Rajiv | May 2016 The study examines the mindset underlying Qatar’s foreign interventions, The adverse implications of US A study that examines Indian with particular attention to the 2009 withdrawal from the Middle East are governmental responses to peace agreement in Lebanon and the manifold, including: the acceleration of the three major Israeli military current war against Iranian involvement Tehran’s drive to regional hegemony, interventions in the Gaza in Yemen; and considers Qatar’s future in the palpable of regional nuclear Strip over the past decade. It the GCC and the world. proliferation following the JCPOA, the reviews the unprecedented spread of jihadist Islam, and Russia’s parliamentary debate that growing penetration of the region. took place in India during Manifest US weakness is also bound Operation Protective Edge, to have ripple effects far beyond the when the government sidestepped opposition Middle East. demands for a resolution critical of Israel. It also assesses the Modi government’s intention to inject Medium-Intensity Threats: The Case new dynamism into the India-Israel relationship. for Beefed-Up IDF Ground Forcess Dr. Eado Hecht and Dr. Eitan Shamir | October 2016 Trends in US Congressional 22 Support for Israel 23 US Foreign Policy and Global This study argues that the rise in capabilities Dr. Amnon Cavari and Elan Nyer | The ISIS Challenge in Standing in the 21st Century: of non-state actors represents a new June 2016 Syria; Implications for Realities and Perceptions intermediate level between low- and Israeli Security high-intensity threats; that is, the medium- While congressional support for Edited by Professors Efraim Inbar Prof. Hillel Frisch | May 2016 intensity threat. It describes several Israel has historically transcended and Jonathan Rynhold plausible threat scenarios that show a clear the partisan divide, Republicans A study of the strategic goals BESA Studies in International Security, need for large, highly capable, maneuvering and Democrats are growing less and military performance of book published by Routledge 2016 IDF ground formations; and argues that the cooperative with regard to the means ISIS; the relative strength of its IDF’s prioritization of air force and precision- by which to express that support. opponents; and the threat to assets over ground units is a mistake. The authors term this development Israeli national security posed This volume examines how the as “congressional dysergia.” Tensions by ISIS. As long as Iran does foreign policies pursued by between the executive branch and not infringe on Israel’s “red Presidents George W. Bush and Congress are growing as well, as exhibited in conflicts between lines” (regarding the transfer Barack Obama have affected elite The Game of Camps: Ideological Fault the Republican-dominated Congress and President Obama. of advanced weaponry and and public perceptions of the United Lines in the Wreckage of the Arab State terrorist bases on its borders) Israel should remain States. By examining America’s System militarily neutral in the conflict with ISIS. standing from the perspective of Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman | September 2016 different actors from across various This study maps four Arab ideological camps The Return of the Russian Bear regions, including China, Russia, and their interactions: The Iranian camp, to the Middle East Latin America and the Middle East, Islamic State camp, Muslim Brotherhood Dr. Shai Har-Zvi | June 2016 while also assessing how these camp, and the “counter camp” – which perceptions interact with America’s consists of the forces of stability, ranging from A study of the aggressive new own policies, this books presents Saudi Arabia and most of the Gulf states to posture in Russian foreign policy a fresh interpretation of America’s Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco, as well as under President Vladimir Putin, global standing. The book is based on the Kurds and other non-Arab players. Israel in the wake of its intervention in the presentations at a December 2014 shares the fears and goals of the latter camp, Syria and the Crimean Peninsula. international conference at the Begin- and is joined with it in countering Iran. The US administration's courtship Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. of Iran, as well as the hope held broadly in the West that the Muslim Brotherhood could play a constructive role, has done little to restore stability or restrain the rise of radicalism. NEW PUBLICATION The New Threat of Very Accurate Missiles by Dr. Max Singer LECTURES

Precision-guided medium-range missiles, a relatively new technology, are beginning to proliferate in the Middle East. When they work as designed, they can deliver half a ton of high explosive to within meters of their targets. This means that for many targets, they are almost as effective as nuclear weapons. With their capacity to destroy capital facilities like power plants, Dr. Charles Asher Small, executive Prof. Michael Mandelbaum, Christian Michael Eisenstadt, the Kahn director of the Institute for the A. Herter Professor and Director of the Fellow and Director of the Military they introduce a new way for Israel to decisively lose a Study of Global and American Foreign Policy program at and Security Studies Program at Policy (ISGAP), lectured at the center the School of Advanced International the Washington Institute for Near war. Israel will have to get the difficult balance between in December 2015 on "The BDS Studies at Johns Hopkins University, East Policy, lectured in June on offense and defense right before the next war. Element in the Delegitimization lectured in June on “The Past, Present “Rethinking U.S. Military Strategy ‏Dr. Max Singer Campaign of Israel." and Future of American Foreign Policy.” toward the Middle East.”

Much attention has been given to Israel, unlike most countries, could Missile defense systems like Iron Dome 24 the need to avoid becoming a world expect little if any help from its and David’s Sling are recognized 25 containing many small nuclear powers. neighbors. as potent ways of protecting the But there is another possibility: that the country from the threat of accurate world will contain many countries in The IDF’s effectiveness could also be missiles aimed at essential Israeli possession of precision-guided missiles. sharply reduced by the destruction of infrastructure. However, some will These missiles can’t kill as many people key facilities. The economic damage argue that increased missile defense as nuclear weapons can, but they can from a small number of missiles hitting would provide less protection against still produce many casualties and cause cleverly chosen targets might be great precision-guided missiles than offensive Mr. Jay Solomon, the senior Uzi Rubin, founder and director of Dr. Dov Waxman, professor of significant strategic damage. enough to cause a significant fraction improvements that might increase foreign affairs correspondent of the Arrow defense program against political science and Israel studies of Israelis and foreign investors to leave deterrence and enhance Israel’s ability, The Wall Street Journal, lectured long-range missiles in the Israeli at Northeastern University, and Israel faces at least two enemies that the country. in the air and on the ground, to prevent in September at the center on Ministry of Defense and a senior the Stotsky Professor of Jewish already have this capability, or are likely missiles from being launched. "The Iran Wars: Spy Games, Bank research associate at the BESA Historical and Cultural Studies, to have it within the next few years – Battles, and the Secret Deals That Center, lectured in March on “The lectured in June on “Trouble in Iran and Hezbollah. Someday, Hamas The challenge to Israeli leadership will Reshaped the Middle East," which Impact of High-Tech Revolutions the Tribe: The American Jewish might also acquire such weapons. In a be to find the best balance between is the title of his new book. on the Future Battlefield.” Conflict Over Israel.” next war, Israel could suffer thousands defense and offense and to overcome of civilian deaths, as well as the internal IDF resistance to moving destruction of its main electric power budgets to implement that balance. plants, water desalination capabilities, international airport, and other critical Dr. Max Singer, a senior research associate infrastructures. Note that two-thirds of at the BESA Center, is a founder of the Israel’s electricity is produced by only Hudson Institute. He specializes in US six power plants. defense policy, US-Israel relations, and long-term strategic planning. Nobody knows how badly life in Israel Now that precision guidance This text is excerpted from his BESA Center would be hurt by a small number technology has come to the region, Perspectives Paper (No. 356), published in of missiles destroying important the IDF, in addition to all its “normal” August. structures. But the loss of electricity responsibilities, must make sure that no alone would be immensely damaging enemy can inflict a fatal blow against Dr. Emanuele Ottolenghi, Prof. Peter Berkowitz, Tad and Dr. Colin Rubenstein, executive to Israel’s standard of living and its Israel with accurate short- or medium- senior fellow with the Dianne Taube Senior Fellow at director of the Australia/Israel ability to maintain its economy. And range missiles carrying high explosives. Foundation for the Defense of the Hoover Institution, Stanford & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC), in Washington University lectured in September lectured in February on "Israel's DC lectured in July on “Iran’s on “, Trumpism, and the Opportunities in Southeast Asia." Involvement in Latin America.” Future of American Exceptionalism.” ‏BESA CENTER PERSPECTIVES PAPERS

No. 371 No. 359 No. 347 No. 335 Tip of the Iceberg: Russian Use of Power in Syria Turkey, the Refugee Crisis and Brexit: Concerns and The Importance of Interests in Israel-Turkey Reconciliation Putin's "Sacred Mission" in Syria October 9, 2016 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror Opportunities for Greece July 5, 2016 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror March 27, 2016 | Dr. Anna Geifman August 12, 2016 | Ambassador Arye Mekel No. 370 No. 346 No. 334 Israel should avoid Turkey; include Cyprus in Gas No. 358 Occupation Is Not the Problem The Russians Are Leaving Syria. Why the Surprise? Export Projects Islamic State Should be Wiped Out July 4, 2016 | Prof. Efraim Karsh March 23, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman October 7, 2016 | Ariel Ben Solomon August 11, 2016 | Prof. Steven R. David No. 345 No. 333 No. 369 No. 357 No One-Shot Solution to the Hamas Challenge Libya: The Next Frontier? The Gaza Tunnels Get Too Much Attention Raqqa Delenda Est: Why Baghdadi’s “Caliphate” Should June 30, 2016 | Prof. Efraim Inbar February 29, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman October 6, 2016 | Prof. Efraim Inbar Be Destroyed August 10, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman No. 344 No. 332 No. 368 Chemical Weapons Could Change the Game in Syria Implications of Greater Chinese Involvement in the Separation is not the Answer No. 356 June 7, 2016 | Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham Mideast The New Threat of Very Accurate Missiles September 29, 2016 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen February 25, 2016 | Dr. Alon Levkowitz August 9, 2016 | Dr. Max Singer No. 343 No. 367 Why Israel Should Not Adopt Unilateral Initiatives No. 331 No. 355 Khamenei’s Slant on WWII: Iran Must Not Go the Way of June 1, 2016 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror Consequences of American Retreat from the Middle East The Iran Deal One Year Later: The Fuse Is Still Burning Germany and Japan February 24, 2016 | Prof. Efraim Inbar August 8, 2016 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror September 28 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman No. 342 26 Between and : Balancing Security and No. 330 27 No. 354 No. 366 Diplomacy Obama and Israel: The Final Year A Covenant of Shadows US-Israel Relations: Beyond the $38 Billion May 31, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman February 17, 2016 | Prof. Eytan Gilboa August 7, 2016 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror September 27, 2016 | Prof. Jonathan Rynhold No. 341 No. 329 No. 353 Israel's Palestinian Dilemmas No. 365 A New Geopolitical Bloc is Born in the Eastern The Destruction of Islamic State is a Strategic Mistake May 3, 2016 | Prof. Efraim Inbar A Wealth of Friendship Mediterranean: Israel, Greece and Cyprus August 2, 2016 | Prof. Efraim Inbar September 20, 2016 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror February 16, 2016 | Ambassador Arye Mekel No. 340 No. 352 Sailing through the Straits: The Meaning for Israel of No. 328 No. 364 Regional Implications of the Failed Coup d’État and Restored Saudi Sovereignty over Tiran and Sanafir Islands North Korea Did It Again The Turks in Syria and the Kurds in “Rojava”: Prelude to Purges in Turkey April 17, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman and Prof. Joshua Tragedy or Reasonable Compromise? August 1, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman Teitelbaum February 2, 2016 | Dr. Alon Levkowitz September 12, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman No. 351 No. 339 No. 327 No. 363 Erdogan’s Turkey Takes a Fork in the Road The ABCs of Judea and Samaria: Towards Breakdown? Shiites vs. Sunnis: A Region at War China’s New Position on the Middle East July 29, 2016 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror April 8, 2016 | Prof. Hillel Frisch January 24, 2016 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror September 11, 2016 | Roie Yellinek No. 350 No. 338 No. 326 No. 362 A Year after the JCPOA: An Interim Report on the The Syrian Civil War: An Interim Balance Sheet New Permutations in the Mideast “Game of Camps” The Erdoğan-Gülen Rivalry Nuclear Deal with Iran April 6, 2016 | Prof. Efraim Inbar January 17, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman September 7, 2016 | Dr. Efrat Aviv July 14, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman No. 337 No. 325 No. 361 No. 349 Israel and Europe After Brussels: What Insights Can We The Roots of Anti-Israeli Attitudes The Middle East Will Remain a Source of Terrorism Lebanon 2006-2016: Deterrence is an Elusive Concept Share? January 11, 2016 | Prof. Efraim Inbar September 1, 2016 | Prof. Efraim Inbar July 10, 2016 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror March 30, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman No. 324 No. 360 No. 348 No. 336 Domestic and Regional Implications of Escalated Cyberspace, the Final Frontier The Turkish-Israeli Reconciliation: A Balance Sheet Israel’s Five Policy Options Regarding Judea and Samaria Saudi-Iran Conflict August 30, 2016 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror July 6, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman March 29, 2016 | Prof. Hillel Frisch January 10, 2016 | Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum

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