The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies No. 34 November 2016 INSIDE Israeli West Bank Policy – Whereto? Should ISIS be Wiped Out? Evaluating the Iran The Oslo Disaster, Deal, One Year Later Strategic Challenges 23 Years Later in the Eastern Mediterranean Prof. Efraim Karsh takes his piercing IDF Challenges of pen to the Oslo peace process – “one of the Future the worst-ever calamities to have hit Saudi Arabia and Israelis and Palestinians”. the New Regional Landscape Efraim Karsh becomes BESA Center Director Mourning the Passing of Muzi Wertheim The Oslo Disaster, 23 Years Later Prof. Efraim Karsh indicts the Oslo peace process – “one of the worst-ever calamities to have hit Israelis and Palestinians.” Hamas regimes. These regimes have Politically and diplomatically, he says, Palestinian gains. Yet one’s loss is contractual obligations. They continue government of a future Palestinian 2 reversed the hesitant advent of civil Oslo instantaneously transformed the not necessarily the other’s gain. The to whitewash ongoing Palestinian state, but its goal of having this state 3 society in these territories, shattered PLO (and, to a lesser extent, Hamas) into Palestinian leadership’s zero-sum violence, belittle the extent of Israeli established without negotiating with their socioeconomic wellbeing, and an internationally accepted political approach and predication of Palestinian suffering, and blame Jerusalem Israel, or even recognizing its right to Prof. Efraim Karsh made the prospects for peace and actor while upholding its commitment national identity on hatred of the for the stalled process despite the exist, seems to be gaining ever wider reconciliation with Israel ever more to Israel’s destruction, edging toward ‘other,’ rather than on a distinct shared public endorsement of the two-state currency. This soft racism – asking remote.” fully fledged statehood outside the Oslo legacy, has resulted in decades of solution by five successive Israeli prime nothing of the Palestinians as if they Prof. Efraim Karsh, the incoming framework, and steadily undermining dispersal and statelessness.” ministers: Peres, Barak, Sharon, Olmert, are too dim or too primitive to be director of the Begin-Sadat Center “This abject failure is a direct result of Israel’s international standing. and Netanyahu.” held accountable for their own words for Strategic Studies, has penned a the Palestinian leadership’s perception “Even if the PLO were to succeed in and actions – is an assured recipe for comprehensive study on what he calls of the process as a pathway not to a The ending of Israel’s occupation of the gaining international recognition of “Not only has the same terror-tainted disaster.” “the Oslo Disaster” and “the starkest two-state solution – meaning Israel Palestinian population of the territories a fully fledged Palestinian state (with Palestinian leadership come to be strategic blunder in Israel’s history.” alongside a Palestinian state in the West within three-and-a-half years from the or without a formal peace treaty with universally viewed as the prospective “For so long as not a single Palestinian Bank and Gaza – but to the subversion onset of the process has gone totally Israel) and in preventing Hamas from leader evinces genuine acceptance of “Twenty-three years after its euphoric of the State of Israel. They view Oslo unnoticed (due partly to Palestinian seizing power, it would still be a failed the two-state solution or acts in a way launch on the White House lawn,” Karsh not as a path to nation-building and propaganda, partly to Israel’s failure to entity in the worst tradition of Arab signifying an unqualified embrace of writes, “the Oslo ‘peace process’ stands state creation, but to the formation of a get this critical point across), with the dictatorships, in permanent conflict the idea, there can be no true or lasting as one of the worst calamities ever to repressive terror entity that perpetuates Jewish state still subject to international with its Israeli neighbor while brutally reconciliation with Israel. And so long as have afflicted Israelis and Palestinians, conflict with Israel, while keeping its opprobrium for the nonexistent repressing its unfortunate subjects.” the territories continue to be governed substantially worsening the position of hapless constituents in constant and “occupation.” by the PLO’s and Hamas’s rule of the both parties and making the prospects bewildered awe as Palestinian leaders Karsh bemoans that fact that “there jungle, no Palestinian civil society, let for peace and reconciliation ever more line their pockets from the proceeds of Domestically, Oslo radicalized Israel’s has been no real reckoning by the alone a viable state, can develop.” remote.” this misery.” Arab minority, nipping in the bud its Oslo architects and their erstwhile decades-long “Israelization” process ‘peace camp’ successors, both in Israel “Sadly, the possibility of a Palestinian “The process has led to establishment Karsh details how the Oslo process has and putting it on a collision course and abroad, of the worst blunder in spring, which seemed to be in the of an ineradicable terror entity on weakened Israel’s national security in with Israel’s Jewish community. Israel’s history, and no rethinking of its offing in 1993 when the PLO hovered Israel’s doorstep, deepened Israel’s several key respects. No less importantly, it made Israeli disastrously misconceived assumptions on the verge of extinction and West internal cleavages, destabilized its politics captive to the vicissitudes of – let alone any public admission of guilt Bank and Gaza leadership appeared political system, and weakened its On the strategic and military levels, Palestinian-Israeli relations, with the or show of remorse over its horrific eager to strike a historic deal within the international standing.” it allowed the PLO to achieve in PLO and Hamas becoming the effective costs.” framework of the Washington peace one fell swoop its strategic vision of arbiters of Israel’s political discourse and negotiations, has been destroyed for “It has been a disaster for West transforming the West Bank and the electoral process. “Instead, they continue to willfully the foreseeable future by the Oslo Bank and Gaza Palestinians too. Gaza Strip into terror hotbeds that ignore the Palestinian leadership’s ‘peace process’.” It has brought about subjugation would disrupt Israel’s way of life (to use “On the face of it,” Karsh writes, “Israel’s total lack of interest in the two- to corrupt and repressive PLO and Yasser Arafat’s words). massive setbacks can be considered state solution and serial violation of BESA CENTER ASSOCIATES IN ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION Israeli West Bank Policy – Whereto? Yaakov Amidror, Hillel Frisch, Gershon Hacohen, Efraim the two-state rubric. This includes the sensitivities of neighbors who Inbar, Eran Lerman and Max Singer discuss Israel's policies on matter (Jordan, Egypt, etc.), the views the Palestinian issue, in a post-Obama and post-Abbas era. of Diaspora Jewry and of Western diplomatic allies, and defense The upshot of their debate: Apply Obama’s first rule of establishment preferences for the status quo. governance. “Don’t do stupid things.” It is wiser for Israel to defer action than to take steps that threaten to make a But Lerman also warns that the false Palestinian narrative of one-sided bad situation worse. Conflict management is victimhood is a major hindrance to all currently the least-worst option. peace efforts. “Global actors that want to help achieve peace need to assist Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror the Palestinians in moving beyond Dr. Max Singer wallowing in self-pity and rituals of state in any borders, and the two bashing Israel,” he says. Supreme Court Justice Edmond Levy sides remain far apart on most of the to challenge the myth that Israel concrete issues to be resolved.” “The concept of painful but practical has stolen Palestinian land. “Even compromises seems alien to the opponents of Israeli settlements in “Israel’s recent governments are left, Palestinians, and the international the West Bank and supporters of a willy-nilly, with a de facto conflict- community is not doing its part to help two-state solution should support management approach, without the Palestinians mature towards this Levy’s affirmation of Israel’s historic With Barack Obama’s term as president (res.) Yaakov Amidror (the Rosshandler foreclosing any options. While there realization.” and settlement rights in the territories. 4 of the US coming to an end, and senior fellow at the center, and a former are costs to this wait-and-see approach, This is critical in leveling the diplomatic 5 Mahmoud Abbas’ tenure as Palestinian national security advisor to the Prime let’s remember this was the approach playing field. Israel must not go into leader winding down too, the Israeli Minister), Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman favored by David Ben-Gurion. He future negotiations as a guilty party.” government will soon have an (a former deputy national security believed in buying time to build a opportunity to recalibrate its diplomatic advisor), and professors Hillel Frisch (an stronger state and in hanging on until General Hacohen goes beyond his BESA policies. Israeli policy on the Palestinian Arabist), Efraim Inbar (a strategist), and opponents yield their radical goals or Center colleagues. To him, caretaking issue has been ham-fistedly frozen for Max Singer (a defense expert). circumstances change for the better.” and truth-telling are insufficient. He two decades. believes in Israeli activism that forces The upshot of their debate: Apply Amidror too dislikes the drive for the adversary onto the defensive But in which direction should Israel Obama’s first rule of governance. “Don’t unilateral Israeli initiatives. “A partial and creates advantageous new go? Fortify or vitiate the Fatah-led do stupid things.” It is wiser for Israel withdrawal would likely increase, rather situations.