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North East Link Inquiry and Advisory Committee Panel

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North East Link Inquiry and Advisory Committee Panel North East Link Inquiry and Advisory Committee Expert Witness Statement of Marianne Stoettrup 1. Introduction 1.1 Matters More in conjunction with GHD prepared the technical report titled Technical Report Business (Technical Report) which is included as Technical Appendix F to the Environment Effects Statement (EES) for the North East Link (Project). 1.2 I have been instructed by Clayton Utz on behalf of the North East Link Project team to review and respond to the public submissions and give evidence on the environmental effects of the Project relevant to my area of expertise, which is business impacts. 1.3 My evidence in this statement is my own, prepared in accordance with PPV guidelines and within my area of expertise, unless I have stated that I have relied on other experts. 2. Qualifications and experience 2.1 Annexure A contains a statement setting out my qualifications and experience, and the other matters raised by Planning Panels Victoria 'Guide to Expert Evidence'. A copy of my curriculum vitae is provided in Annexure B. 3. Technical Report 3.1 The role I had in preparing the technical report was as lead specialist involved in all parts of its preparation. Other significant contributors to the report and their expertise include: 3.1.1 Aecom staff – assisted in the early stages of preparation and undertook 15 of the business interviews in April and May 2018. Aecom staff were: Ainsley Nigro, Principal Economic Analyst Cameron Gook, Economist Will Boadle, Economist Maxine Catchlove, Graduate Economist 3.1.2 GHD staff – assisted throughout the process in the preparation of the report and prepared all maps and figures in the report. Emma Lichkus, Senior Environmental Planner Alex Jepsen, Team Leader – Planning Veronica Fink, Environmental Planner 3.2 I adopt the Technical Report, in combination with this document, as my written expert evidence for the purposes of the Inquiry and Advisory Committee's inquiry into the environmental effects of the Project. 4. Further work since preparation of the Technical Report 4.0 Since the Technical Report was finalised, I have undertaken further work in relation to: 1) Understanding the availability of industrial land to accommodate the displaced businesses within 10kms of Bulleen Industrial Precinct. I have reviewed market research done for the North East Link Project team, an employment lands planning North East Link Inquiry and Advisory Committee, Expert Witness Statement of Marianne Stoettrup study done for Manningham City Council and an industrial precinct review done for Whitehorse City Council. 2) Understanding the likelihood of displaced businesses being able to retain their workforce in their new locations through analysis of workforce catchments at Bulleen and identification of job availability in other locations. 3) Understanding the future local availability of goods and services hitherto provided by businesses in the Bulleen Industrial Precinct. 4) Understanding the likelihood of displaced businesses retaining customers following their displacement from Bulleen. A summary of my findings in relation to this further work is found below. 4.1 Industrial land availability within 10kms of Bulleen Industrial Precinct 4.1.1 With over 80 businesses displaced from the Bulleen Industrial Precinct, it is important to understand where these businesses could relocate to, whether this would be a successful relocation from a business perspective in terms of retaining customers and staff, and whether it would leave a subsequent gap in service provision for the community. 4.1.2 To gain an understanding of the possible and likely locations that displaced businesses would relocate to, I have reviewed the Opportunities for Relocation: Bulleen Industrial Precinct, March 2019 study commissioned by the North East Link Project Team. The market study identifies suitable locations that could accommodate uses occurring at Bulleen i.e. a mix of heavy and light industrial, showroom, industrial hardstand and retail uses within a 10 kms radius (approximately) of the Bulleen Industrial Precinct. 4.1.3 The study bears out the initial supposition of restricted availability of industrial land in Manningham municipality; Bulleen Industrial Precinct is Manningham’s largest industrial area, it is located on the western periphery of the municipality and no new industrial precinct land is in the development pipeline. The following four precincts were identified as having a high rate of overall comparability to the Bulleen Industrial Precinct in terms of proximity, zoning, main road and road network linkages, main road exposure and properties on the market for sale and lease: 1. Preston Industrial Precinct – 5kms west of Bulleen Industrial Precinct 2. Heidelberg West Industrial Precinct – 4kms west of Bulleen Industrial Precinct 3. Fairfield/Alphington Industrial Precinct – 5kms west of Bulleen Industrial Precinct 4. Thomastown Industrial Precinct – 9kms north west of Bulleen Industrial Precinct 4.1.4 Another two precincts were identified as having a medium rate of overall comparability to Bulleen Industrial Precinct, namely: 1. Bundoora Industrial Precinct – 7kms north west of Bulleen Industrial Precinct 2. Nunawading Industrial Precinct – 12kms south east of Bulleen Industrial Precinct. 4.1.5 Looking first at the closest precincts, and commencing with the Preston Industrial Precinct as an example, the current availability of commercial/industrial property comprises a number of small industrial warehouses in a new development, a couple of showroom/office/warehouse buildings, a carwash, and a large vacant development site. Additional older industrial buildings are for sale as investment properties with current tenants in place. Vacant properties’ details are listed in Table 1: North East Link Inquiry and Advisory Committee, Expert Witness Statement of Marianne Stoettrup 2 Table 1: Preston Industrial Precinct, Industrial Properties for Sale, 26 June 2019 Address Land Building Type Zone Price area m2 size 1-33_8-14 Albert na 88m2 to Business hub with 33 contemporary IN3Z Starting from Street 204 m² warehouses; 11 sold, 22 available $365,000 1/188 Plenty Road 2,535m2 2,364m2 Corner site -showroom/office and C1Z $4,800,000 warehouse 45A Quinn Street 980m2 825m2 Two level office with amenities & IN3Z Auction clearspan warehouse 97-99 Raglan Street 1412m2 1m2 Carwash self-serve - five bays IN3Z $3,250,000 + GST 10 – 30 Chifley 2,000m2 none Available in whole or part; owner is IN3Z POA Drive to prepared to subdivide the land or 20,000m2 build to your requirements Source: www.commercialrealestate.com.au and www.realcommercial.com.au Note: na – not all information about land area is provided The development site at 10-30 Chifley Drive is interesting as a potential site to accommodate several Bulleen businesses that currently cooperate closely and would benefit from co- location. At 20,000m2 it could accommodate, say, 36 businesses at 500m2 with 10% set aside for roads. The opportunity to develop the site to requirements and subsequently advertise the location to their existing customer base as the new home of Bulleen businesses has some merit in terms of achieving successful business relocation. 4.1.6 There is a variety of properties available for lease in Preston Industrial Precinct, ranging from small to medium sized industrial warehouses, five co-located homemaker showrooms of various sizes, and to an old warehouse complex suitable for storage. Industrial properties for lease as of 26 June 2019 are shown in Table 2 below. Table 2: Preston Industrial Precinct, Industrial Properties for Lease, 26 June 2019 Address Land Building Type Zone Price area m2 size 34-44 Raglan na 6,236m2 The site comprises three IN1Z POA +27,977m2 warehouse buildings and a stand- and 879m2 alone two-level office building 97 Chifley Drive na 511m2, Homemaker showrooms, bulky C2Z POA 1017m2, goods – five available 1363m2, 1868m2, 2380m2 75 Gower Street na 510m2 Brick warehouse IN3Z $52,000pa ($102 per m2) Level 1, 1/73 na 590m2 First floor office tenancy offered IN3Z $57,000 + Gower Street GST + Outgoings ($97 per m2) 1A Bell Street 1,440m2 180m2 Showrooms, bulky goods IN3Z $75,000 ($52 office per m2 land area) 12 Fink Street na 550m2 Warehouse, industrial high IN1Z POA clearance 6 Albert Street na 910sqm - Old warehouse complex – three IN3Z POA 1,980sqm buildings 3B Kia Court na 200m2 + Small industrial warehouse with IN3Z $42,000pa 180m2 mezzanine ($110 per m2 mezzanine floor area) Source: www.commercialrealestate.com.au and www.realcommercial.com.au Note: na – not all information provided by the sources North East Link Inquiry and Advisory Committee, Expert Witness Statement of Marianne Stoettrup 3 4.1.7 Not all the identified industrial precincts will have the same high number of properties available as in Preston. In Heidelberg West, for example, only smaller properties were identified for sale – industrial warehouses on land from 110m2 (x2) to 580m2 and 673m2 respectively with building sizes of 110m2 (x2) to 480m2 and 490m2. The small factories are new and are for sale by treaty at approximately $3,030 per m2. Availability for lease is mainly in small to medium office space and small retail spaces. While in Fairfield/Alphington there is a depot space of 1320m2 for lease (no associated office space), showroom/warehouse space of 470m2 and a couple of small industrial warehouses. 4.1.8 In summary, within 5kms of Bulleen, Preston appears to have the best availability of properties for sale and lease as well as vacant developable land with sufficient availability to accommodate a large number of the Bulleen businesses. 4.1.9 Initial consultation with businesses has revealed a reluctance by some to relocate west of Bulleen, not because of distance, but because of a perceived poor reputation of the available industrial areas. Data on property crimes for sourced from the Crime Statistics Agency (refer Table 3) confirms that the number of Property and Deception crimes in the Darebin municipality are significantly higher than in the municipality of Manningham.
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