University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Marketing Papers Wharton Faculty Research 2007 Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts Kesten C. Green Monash University,
[email protected] J. Scott Armstrong University of Pennsylvania,
[email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers Recommended Citation Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts. Retrieved from https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/168 Suggested Citation: Green, K.C. and Armstrong, J.S. (2007). Global Warming: Forecasts by Scienctists Versus Scientific Forecasts. Energy & Environment. Vol. 19(7-8). p. 997-1021. Publisher URL: http://multi-science.metapress.com/content/121493/ This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/168 For more information, please contact
[email protected]. Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific orF ecasts Abstract In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature increases. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked: Are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is “no”. To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one would need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature changes, and (3) the effects of feasible alternative policies. Proper forecasts of all three are necessary for rational policy making.