BOYKOFF - ENVS 3521

ENVS 3521 Climate Politics & Policy

University of -Boulder Spring 2012 Component IV – May 1

Top themes from today’s readings: public opinion & - ‘Six Americas’ & cultural cognition

American Teens’ Knowledge of Climate Change better understanding on a few important measures:

• 57% of teens understand that global warming is caused mostly by human activities, compared to 50% of adults; • 77% of teens understand that the greenhouse effect refers to gases in the atmosphere that trap heat, compared to 66% of adults; • 52% of teens understand that traps heat from the Earth’s surface, compared to 45% of adults; • 71% of teens understand that carbon dioxide is produced by the burning of fossil 2 fuels, compared to 67% of adults.

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public opinion & climate change - ‘Six Americas’ & cultural cognition cultural cognition (Dan Kahan): the tendency of individuals to form beliefs about societal dangers that reflect and reinforce their commitments to particular visions of the ideal society

Carsey Institute study, University of New Hampshire (Lawrence Hamilton) on ‘Climate Change, Partisanship, Understanding and Public Opinion’ People “tend to selectively absorb information…fitting it into their pre- existing beliefs…our surveys said nothing about possible solutions or policies related to climate change. The deeply partisan responses nevertheless suggest that many people made this association themselves, basing their beliefs about science and physical reality on what they thought would be the political implications if human-caused climate change were true”. …dangers when climate science is treated as primarily political issues?

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The Policy Process: Undue Influence?

Council on Environmental Quality: Philip Cooney ~ June 2005

from The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (June 8th, 2005) from (June 2005)

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The Policy Process: Undue Influence? McCright & Dunlap (2000, 2003) Examined media coverage of 5 ‘contrarians’ and 5 prominent climate scientists:  S. , , Sallie Baliunas, , & , F. Sherwood Rowland, Bert Bolin, , and Benjamin Santer

Found 1) contrarian counterclaims gained salience, and 2) they successfully reframed climate change science and policy issues with greater uncertainty  greater public confusion

Top 10 Rival Assertions in Climate Contrarian Community

10. humans’ role in warming is negligible 9. global warming will be a benefit 8. satellite measurements are poor 7. sunspots are the real culprit 6. models give unrealistic prognoses 5. Sulfur Dioxide is the savior 4. inequality in commitments to reductions ruin all actions 3. there is actually 2. proposed global warming actions are draconian and bad for the economy 1. action in the face of uncertainty is unwise

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the ‘Carbon Club’: ‘sceptics’, ‘contrarians’

Richard Patrick Bjorn Lindzen Michaels Lomborg

S. Fred Myron Singer Ebell

Sallie Balliunas

Soon & Baliunas

The Iris Effect

• Lindzen argues that the earth self-regulates via tropical cloud mechanisms to limit the insolation, and hence keep temperatures down

1x CO2 2 x CO2

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The Iris Effect

• Theoretically possible but lacks evidence • Based on mechanisms that models find hard to simulate (and will always find hard to simulate)

• God-of-the-gaps move: • Because standard theory cannot explain or test everything, it cannot explain anything • Ignores or downplays the successes of standard theory • Is evidentially empty

ongoing & formidable challenges/opportunities

- power of new/social media (e.g. democratizing content production; ‘noise’) – net neutrality

- working within a mix of news & entertainment approaches to influence awareness & engagement via ‘expertise’ and ‘authority’

- mobilizing metaphors & analogies (e.g. hockey stick; bathtub); effective/appropriate ‘hooks’

- fostering consistent, inclusive & open engagement with science/public/policy actor communities

- navigating through AND valuing varying ways of knowing: observational/experiential access to understanding vis-à-vis ‘expert’ “Allknowledge the world's a stage, and all the

men and women merely players. Cambridge University Press They have their exits and their cover image designed by Ami Nacu10 - entrances…” ~ Schmidt William Shakespeare in ‘As You Like It’

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