Global Warming: a Scientific Overview

Global Warming: A Scientific Overview By James M. Taylor Senior Fellow The Heartland Institute [email protected] The Earth’s Climate History –Part I • The Earth’s climate is never static, temperatures are always warming or cooling • For the past 3 million years, the Earth has been in an unusually cold ice age epoch, though we are currently in a brief interlude Interglacials and The Earth’s Climate History –Part II • Since the end of the last ice age glaciation 10,000 years ago, the Little Ice Age, which lasted from roughly 1300 to 1900, brought the coldest global temperatures in our current interglacial period • The Earth warmed merely 0.6 degrees Celsius during the 20th century, as we recovered from the Little Ice Age • It is important to remember the context of our current warming, coming from such an unusually cold baseline • Today’s temperatures are neither unprecedented or unusual Holocene Temperature History – GRIP Greenland Ice Core Earth’s Temperature History 20th Century Temperature and Carbon Dioxide • Years CO2 Temperature • 1900‐1945 Minimal Rising • 1945‐1977 Rising Cooling • 1977‐1998 Rising Rising • 1998‐2008 Rising Cooling Solar Output: A Better Fit U.S. Temperature Fluctuations Correlate with Solar Changes The Sun is more likely the dominant driver of the recorded Arctic temperature variations But What about the Computer Models? How Have Computer Predictions Fared? • IPCC, 2001 ‐ During the next 20 years, temperatures will rise 0.2 to 0.4 degrees Celsius per decade. • Let’s check this prediction against real‐world data. Global Temps Since 2001 IPCC vs. Real World ‐ Christy Global Temperatures Since 1979 Why Computer Models Fail –Part I • Scientists agree doubling CO2 = 1.1 degree C • CO2 has risen only 40 percent since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution until today • How do computer models predict 3.0 degrees C of warming in 21st century? Why Computer Models Fail –Part II • Computer model predictions of rapid temperature rise are based on speculative “positive feedbacks” • The “positive feedbacks” assume that a small rise in CO2 warming will cause further rises in: – Water vapor (causing much more warming) – Upper level clouds (causing much more warming) • Upper level clouds warm the earth • Lower level clouds cool the earth Let’s Check the Real‐World Evidence • In March 2001, MIT atmospheric physicist Dr. Richard Lindzen reported data indicating global warming was causing fewer cirrus clouds, creating a “negative feedback” so strong that it canceled all “positive feedbacks.” • Hurricane expert Dr. William Gray has for decades been reporting lower atmospheric relative humidity. Testing the Computer Model Assumptions What Has Aqua Satellite Found? • 1) Relative humidity is DECLINING, not increasing • Gray right, Computer modelers wrong! • 2) Upper Level Clouds are DECLINING, not increasing • Lindzen right, computer modelers wrong! • This eliminates the vast majority of projected warming in the computer models. • This explains why temps rose only 0.6 C during the entire 20th century, and have not risen in over a decade. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory What about the Scientific Consensus? Doesn’t the media tell us that all or nearly all scientists agree that we are causing a global warming crisis? Scientific Consensus • 32,000 scientists say no crisis (oism.org) • 500 climate scientists surveyed by Institute of Coastal Research – Survey question: “Natural scientists have established enough physical evidence to turn the issue of global climate change over to social scientists for matters of policy discussion.” – Less than half agreed What Do Others Say about Consensus? • American Physical Society, July 2008 – “There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion….” • New York Times lead science reporter Andrew Revkin –“For every PhD, there is an equal and opposite PhD.” • Summary –There is no scientific consensus that humans are causing a global warming crisis Global Warming Alarm Debunked • Antarctica – Cooling, ice pack growing • Arctic sea ice –Regional wind patterns • Mt. Kilimanjaro –Temps cooling, deforestation • Hurricanes –NHC, NOAA report no increase • Tornadoes ‐ Declining • Drought –20th century soils more moist • Floods –More precipitation, but less floods • Greenland –Extremely cold • Gulf Stream –No threat of shutdown Thank you! James M. Taylor Senior Fellow, Environment Policy The Heartland Institute [email protected] Drought –The Media Environmental News Service, April 5, 2007: “Global Warming Brings Perpetual Drought to U.S. Southwest” Drought –The Science International Journal of Climatology, July 2004: Study of soil moisture throughout the Northern Hemisphere. “The terrestrial surface is both warmer and effectively wetter …A good analogy to describe the changes in these places is that the terrestrial surface is literally becoming more like a gardener’s greenhouse.” Drought –The Science Geophysical Research Letters, May 25, 2006 ‐ “An increasing trend is apparent in both model soil moisture and runoff over much of the U.S. …This wetting trend is consistent with the general increase in precipitation in the latter half of the 20th century. Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century.” Drought –The Science National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website: “A number of tree‐ring records exist for the last two millennia which suggest that 20th century droughts may be mild when evaluated in the context of this longer time frame.” Drought –The Science Climatic Change, July 2007: During the Little Ice Age, there occurred three “very large‐scale drought[s] more severe and sustained than any witnessed during the period of instrumental weather observations” [i.e., the 20th century]. Drought –The Science • “Evidence indicates that summer soil moisture content has increased during the last several decades at almost all sites having long‐term records in the Global Soil Moisture Data Bank.” – Journal of Hydrology, 2006 Drought (U.S. precipitation – NCDC) Drought –The Science What we see from the scientific record is that droughts have become less frequent and less severe during our recent global warming. Asserted trends to the contrary are decidedly short term, limited in geographic reach, and quite minor when compared to droughts that have dominated colder climatic conditions. Snowpack –The Media Washington Post, Feb. 1, 2008 ‐ “Decline in Snowpack is Blamed on Warming Snowpack –The Science University of Washington climate scientists, Feb. 2007 ‐ Snowpack in the Cascades have increased during the past 30‐plus years Snowpack –The Science July 2008 ‐ Scientists at the University of California at Santa Cruz report that the snowpack at Mt. Shasta has been growing for the last century, including 30 percent growth in the past 50 years Snowpack –The Science 2006 Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference ‐ Alpine snowpack throughout Utah has not declined at all during recent years Snowpack –The Science Utah Blue Ribbon scientific panel on Climate Change, July 2007 ‐ Snowpack in the Intermountain West has not been shrinking at all The Cost of Global Warming Plans The average retail price of electricity in states with renewable power mandates is 42% higher than the price of electricity in states without such mandates. (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration) The Cost of Global Warming Plans Business Week magazine reports that the true price of wind power is $91 per megawatt hour, after factoring in the $40 per megawatt hour of federal subsidies. By contrast, coal costs merely $37 per megawatt hour. Wind power is 2 ½times more expensive than coal power. And solar power is far more expensive than wind power. The Cost of Global Warming Laws Iowa by 2030 40,000 lost jobs $7,000 reduction in annual disposable income per household 153% increase in electricity prices from baseline 140% increase in gasoline prices from baseline Illinois would be much worse Source: Science Applications International Corp, 2008 The Cost of Global Warming Laws • According to a 2007 study conducted by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), reducing greenhouse gas emissions by a mere 15 percent would cost the average household nearly 3 percent of its income. A family making $50,000 per year would be forced to pay an extra $1,400 every year for the same goods and services it purchases today. • "Most of the cost of meeting a cap on CO2 emissions would be borne by consumers, who would face persistently higher prices for products such as electricity and gasoline.” The Cost of Global Warming Laws A 2007 study by economists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) reached similar conclusions. According to the MIT study, mandatory greenhouse gas reduction schemes similar to those most popular in Congress and the state legislatures would cost typical families of four close to $5,000 each and every year. The Cost of Global Warming Laws A 2003 study by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) found that mandatory greenhouse gas reductions similar to the most frequently proposed federal and state legislation would result in a 27 percent increase in gasoline prices and a 46 percent rise in electricity prices. The Cost of Global Warming Laws In 2007, Wake Forest University Economics Chair Robert Whaples surveyed a random selection of American Economic Association Ph.D. economists. Whaples asked the economists what the impact of projected global warming will be on U.S. Gross Domestic Product by the end of the 21st century. Fully 59 percent projected that even 100 years from now global warming will have a neutral or positive impact on the U.S. economy The Cost of Global Warming Laws In 2004, Yale University economics professor Robert Mendelsohn concluded that the benefits of global warming will outweigh the harms until temperatures surpass 2.5 degrees Celsius warmer than they are today. At current warming rates, temperatures will not surpass 2.5 degrees Celsius until at least the 24th century.

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