Climate Change from Science to the Corridors of Politics

Ohoud Al-Lami

July, 2019

Special Report

Special Report

3 Summary This report focuses on how political interest has historically shifted vis-à-vis climate change, and how the issue, along with research on weather and research related to the causes of climate change and methods for controlling them, have left the scientific space and come up against politics and the economic interests of states, and how the issue has begun to be used as a tool to apply pressure at regional turning points. It also examines how new alliances were created to face this issue. According to an alternate viewpoint, the issue has been transformed into a tool to apply political pressure and create division as states blame each other for causing the problem. The report explores Saudi Arabia’s position within this global exchange and the Kingdom’s efforts to address the issue, as well as the solutions proposed by experts, which fall into two categories: those for which the government is responsible and those in which individuals and civil institutions must participate.

4 Introduction While the global system is going through a period of tension and the formation of a new and larger multipolar struggle in economic and technological terms, we still observe that in some cases, there remains a global participation system wherein states cooperate to resolve global humanitarian problems, such as environmental issues, outbreaks of diseases, and providing asylum for refugees. This system involves comprehensive participation in solving problems, which occurs in the absence of viable military intervention in such matters. Environmental protection has become one of the most visible global issues in terms of public and political discourse. This is especially true in the case of climate change. Because of this issue, for the first time we are witnessing a direct clash between science and politics, whereas formerly such clashes only occurred between politics and the economy or politics and ideology, for example. Climate change provokes strong political conflicts because proposed solutions require the reduction of some economically productive endeavors. Such changes are costly; in fact, scientists posit that the main cause of climate change is the burning of gas, oil, and coal to produce energy, which accounts for 80% of global energy production.1

The History of Interest in Climate Change The debate on climate change, on whether the temperature at the Earth’s surface is really increasing, and if so, whether this rise in temperature is due to human activities, was never exclusively engaged in between scientists and politicians (who agree that science evaluates the degree of damage suffered by the planet but that science alone cannot determine what we must do). The debate also rages among scientists themselves; some have critiqued what they view as increasingly alarmist warnings of climate change. For example, Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) argued that

Ambiguous scientific statements about climate are hyped by those with a vested interest in alarm, thus raising the political stakes for policy makers who provide funds for more science research to feed more alarm to increase the political stakes. After all,

(1) Andrew Dessler and Edward Parson, The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012), trans. Abdulmaqsood Abdulkarim (EgyptNational Center for Translation, 2014).

5 who puts money into science—whether for AIDS, or space, or climate—where there is nothing really alarming? Indeed, the success of climate alarmism can be counted in the increased federal spending on climate research from a few hundred million dollars pre-1990 to $1.7 billion today. It can also be seen in heightened spending on solar, wind, hydrogen, ethanol and clean coal technologies, as well as on other energy- investment decisions.2

Scientists’ interests, climate research, and climate change research form an old and complex dynamic, which is difficult for the nonexpert to understand. Therefore, this report is not meant to be an academic inquiry, but rather an attempt to tease out the shifts and interests in our reaction to climate change. More generally, it examines the transformation of a humanist environmentalist issue, viewed as the preservation of the planet for future generations, into a political card to be played, in the vein of human rights or women’s rights. The report also aims to answer questions such as: How has the interest in the environment and climate change become a barometer for the advancement of countries? Is it a burden on developed countries? Or is it an aid in technological development and the preservation of the planet and humanity? The question could be posed inversely: Do industrial nations fulfill their duty toward those who are hurt by their activities, considering that they are the beneficiaries of industry, whereas less developed countries are affected by climate change since they have no method of confronting it?

Historically, climate change did not attract the attention of politicians until the 1980s, when unprecedented rises in temperatures were observed in the United States. In addition, the cessation of wars and the decrease in popular uprisings may have contributed to drawing politicians’ attention to climate change, as there was now a space for the voice of science and for thinking about ways to avoid a potential danger. Interest also became widespread among citizens and the media, which caused Time magazine to name the endangered planet Earth as the “Person of the Year” in 1988.

(2) Richard Lindzen, “Climate of Fear: Global Warming Alarmists Intimidate Dissenting Scientists into Silence,” Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2006.

6 The Intermingling of Science and Politics in the Issue of Climate Change Political interest in climate change, as well as pressure from environmental organizations, led to the signing of the United Nations’ Kyoto Protocol in 1997, which represented an executive step for the UN resolution on climate change, an international treaty that entails legal commitments to the reduction of certain gas emissions produced by industrial nations that cause climate change. A time period was determined, from 2008 to 2012, and thirty- eight countries reduced gas emissions to varying degrees during that period. The reduction goal was 8% for the European Union, which would bring emission levels to below what they were in 1990. For the United States and Japan, reduction levels were set at 7% and 6%, respectively. These reductions covered six gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide, and three types of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).3 Moreover, one of the items of the treaty was that developed countries be required to finance the transportation of technologies to developing countries, especially environmentally friendly technologies in fields such as energy and transportation.

Even though the treaty entered into the implementation stage, a rift occurred between two camps: the United States, Russia, Japan, and Canada, on the one hand, and the European countries, on the other. Disagreements arose regarding flexibility in reducing emissions. The United States’ objection during the presidency of George W. Bush centered on the assertion that the requirements negatively affected the American economy, as well as the fact that emissions from developing countries were not reduced. It was difficult for the United States to accept that countries such as China and India were not offering concessions in reducing their emission rates (due to the postponement of China and India’s commitments to a later date). Bush then proposed alternative concessions: an increase in support for research on climate change, tax incentives for alternative energy resources and high-efficiency vehicles, and other programs to incentivize manufacturers to voluntarily reduce emissions.4

(3) United Nations, “Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,” 1998, https://unfccc. int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf. (4) Dessler and Edward, Science and Politics of Global Climate Change.

7 A climate change summit was held every year under the auspices of the United Nations. Climate change conferences went through many difficulties to arrive at recommendations that guarantee abiding by the reduction of emissions that cause climate change, but simultaneously avoiding negative effects on countries’ economies. One of the most important of such conferences was the Bali Conference, which took place in response to the impending end of the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol in 2007 in order to arrive at a new agreement following the end of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, and the allocation of a new timetable by 2009 to ratify a new agreement at that time. The expectation was that the United States would change its policy by adopting protocols that were more cooperative, with the recommendations coming out of talks surrounding climate change that coincided with the 2008 presidential election and the introduction of an administration more amenable to environmentalism. A meeting was held in Paris in 2015 that aimed to arrive at an agreement that would reduce emissions that cause climate change. The agreement was signed in New York in 2016, and Saudi Arabia officially was a participant. However, President Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States would withdraw from the agreement in the middle of 2017 reignited the debate on the effectiveness of international cooperation and whether the United Nations had the authority to enforce international treaties and agreements. Nonetheless, a UN conference on climate change was held in Katowice, Poland, in December 2018 to implement the Paris agreement and approve the start of a program to implement it.

Even though the awareness of environmentalist problems has increased, and in spite of the (marginal) progress in talks related to climate change, there remains a tension between the political and scientific fields due to the divergence in goals and methods between them. We now observe actors that have made the environment their political touchstone and have exaggerated facts to their advantage. At the other end of the spectrum, their opponents dismiss environmental issues in order to serve their own interests. In addition, some politicians deploy soft power in order to sow fear of fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and natural gas, in order to open markets and increase investment in alternative fuels. The problem has reached a point where some scientists who oppose exaggerating the effects of climate change have opined that interest in climate change and warning of its effects have become something

8 akin to an ideology, and that they have come under attack and been branded as agents and cronies of big business.

Political appropriation of climate change has shifted from being restricted to rival political parties to a larger international level, involving the interactions between developing and developed countries. According to Faisal Mirza,

Developed countries, especially the United States, desire to exonerate industries and their effect on the environment, while exaggerating the danger of oil and the industry it produces! These industrial nations offer recommendations that are in line with their interests, and take advantage of their monopolization of technological advancement to fabricate figures via studies that impose a certain reality, even if that would cause harm to other parties within the framework of climate change conferences. There is no doubt that the great industrial countries will not be suitable sponsors for achieving the interests of developing countries, because those developing countries have not established solid formations to collectively defend their interests, which have been included in agreements. And because these countries are considered a viable market for the products of industrial nations, and a strategic storage space for raw materials on which these developed industries depend, that is why the great industrial nations exert diplomatic, economic, and military efforts to maintain the status quo: Increasing industrial development in developed nations while increasing the need for them in developing nations.5

We have observed an example of utilizing commitments to reduce the causes of climate change as a political tool to exert pressure and dominance when Russia ratified the Kyoto Protocol of 2004, which eased its process of joining the World Trade Organization and opened the door to its economic cooperation with Europe.6

(5) Faisal Mirza, The Kingdom is ahead of climate change thinkers Aliqtisadiah, August 2016. (6) Hamdi Hashim, “Global Climate Change and Its Economic and Political Manifestations and Dimensions,” https://www.feedo.net/Environment/EnvironmentalProblems/ClimateChanges/UniversalCilmate. htmJawdat Alhayat.

9 Climate Change and the Development Debate Political, economic, and scientific debate on climate change has become present in issues of development and in the global development discourse. This is because developing countries bear the burden of the effects of climate change. In fact, estimates show that they will bear approximately 75–80% of the costs of resulting damages.7 In addition, climate change will lead to increased difficulty in producing food to satisfy the needs of the population, even though developed countries are the ones that produced most of the emissions previously. Therefore, developed countries should be held responsible for reducing emissions and financing and supporting research that explore alternative solutions which do not result in carbon emissions. Since most emissions on the global scale will be caused in the future by developing countries, those countries will require the financial resources and technological transportation capabilities that would enable them to further pursue a robust rate of development while reducing emissions. They also require aid in adapting to climate change; for example, determining types of crops that are capable of resisting climate shocks, diversifying methods of income in rural areas, and improving the management of forests and fisheries. They would also require technologies that will reduce the effects of climate change and the damages from catastrophes. These would include the establishment of early warning systems, climate observation technologies, and so forth. But in spite of these recommendations, efforts to achieve environmental sustainability, and the merging environmental policies in the developmental considerations offered up by experts and international institutions, in spite of all this, the developed countries’ support of the developing countries remains insufficient. In addition, at current rates, emissions reductions will remain 5% lower than the required annual rate by the year 2030.

Developed countries invariably justify their lack of support for the developing nations by citing financial crises, but according to a World Bank report on development and climate change, financial crises cannot be a valid excuse for a delay in dealing with the climate change. On average, a financial crisis lasts for two years and results in a loss of 3% of total local production. This is generally offset by an increase of 20% in the following eight years. Therefore, financial

(7) World Bank, Development and Climate Change: A Strategic Framework for the World Bank Group: Main Report (English) (Washington, D.C., 2008).

10 crises come and go in spite of the losses they cause. However, that is not the case with the increasing danger of climate change. The effects of carbon gases on the atmosphere remain for decades and perhaps even for thousands of years, which will make it difficult to revert to a safe level of emissions.8 Moreover, developed countries can offer support via the establishment of financial investment groups that could invest methods for improving the efficiency of energy usage. This would result in many advantages, such as increasing energy availability, decreasing gas emissions that cause global warming, and providing job opportunities.

This is where we find divisions among countries and the reasons for the inability tofind solutions that are acceptable to all parties. The developing countries insist on the idea of shared but varying responsibilities, and they demand that developed countries offer them technological and financial support. The developed countries, on the other hand, demand that developing countries such as China and India be held accountable for the material and technical costs of facing global warming. Many developing countries view this as an injustice to billions of poor people around the world, on the grounds that developed countries are the ones that caused the problem, which should entail that developed countries aid weaker groups in developing countries, who would be the first to be harmed by climate change.

Another obstacle in reaching mutually satisfactory solutions is the method of multiparty negotiations, which includes 196 countries in the UN climate change conferences. There are conflicts of interest among these countries, and developed countries overcome these differences through their political clout: They push through a preconceived proposal that draws out the basis of a new agreement after its approval by heads of state, with the understanding that participants will discuss the plan so that a unanimous agreement can be announced at the end of the conference. This method of conducting conferences can be beneficial in terms of swiftly arriving at compromises with regard to certain disagreements between the developing and developed countries, but at the same time it could be viewed as a kind of guardianship imposed on the weak by the strong. This makes most developing countries lose trust in the developed countries when it comes their promises of offering the requisite financial and technical

(8) World Bank, Development and Climate Change.

11 support to combat climate change, especially if the developed countries have reneged on prior agreements. Therefore, it is likely that in light of developed countries’ expected failure to finance the high cost of adapting to climate change, countries such as India will demand that the polluters themselves should bear the burden of the pollution they have caused. There is also a strong inclination from developing countries to foster cooperation among themselves, including China, which hopes to establish a process for financing a South-South alliance to combat climate change.9

The Position of Saudi Arabia in the Global Dynamics of Climate Change In terms of Saudi Arabia’s position within the global dynamics of climate change, recent climate change conferences have occurred while the Kingdom was developing its Vision 2030 program. The goals of Vision 2030 include drastically reducing dependence on oil, which could help Saudi Arabia distance itself from the largest source of energy that produces harmful emissions. The Kingdom aims to reduce annual carbon emissions to 130 million tons by 2030 through investment in renewable energy programs, including solar energy. Until now, Saudi Arabia has dealt with the issue of climate change by maintaining that it is committed to its role in combating climate change, and that it is also committed to meeting global energy needs through a gradual shift to a more sustainable environmental future, taking into account that this transformation must be feasible both financially and environmentally.10 For years, the Kingdom has aimed to join every international movement working to develop alternative, environmentally friendly energy sources. For example, it joined the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum in 2005 and the Global Methane Initiative in 2013. It also actively participates in the Four Kingdoms Initiatives to reduce carbon emissions (in partnership with the United Kingdom, Holland, and Norway).11

(9) Ahmad Qandeel, “Shared Responsibilities: Hopes of Developing Countries in Combatting Climate Change,” Al-Ahram, December 2015. (10) Statement by Khalid ibn Abdulaziz Al-Falih, minister of energy, industry and mineral resources, at the Twenty-Second Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in Marrakech, Morocco, November 2016. (11) Mirza, The Kingdom is ahead of climate change thinkers ,Aliqtisadiah.

12 Individual global efforts are important, but because of increasing conflicts among the developed nations during the 1990s, the developing countries started to form alliances in order to unify their voices at the UN climate conventions. In particular, an Indian-Chinese discourse began to develop, which could create a space for the shared concern among the oil-producing countries that founded the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to initially control oil prices. Today, there is another reason to strengthen their bonds: to prepare for international climate change conventions that will define the oil-producing countries’ responsibilities and rights.

Proposed Solutions for Facing the Issue of Climate Change Local Administrations Proposed solutions to climate change can be divided into two categories: decreasing the severity of climate change via reducing harmful gas emissions, which falls under the responsibility of the state (this report has mentioned steps that Saudi Arabia has taken in this regard). The second category involves adapting by developing high-tech equipment to help humanity cope with the effects of climate change. This solution falls on individuals and civil institutions, which should support the state by convincing people to enact changes in their daily lives and to reevaluate and appreciate the environment in which they live. The secretary-general of the United Nations, António Guterres, stressed this part of the solution when he noted that the climate summit that was scheduled for September 2019 would focus on three main results: increasing commitment, transforming the true economy, and promoting citizen and youth mobilization. He also called for all governments, companies, sources of financing (both public and private), and civil institutions to join the preparatory phase.12

Solutions for reducing the severity of climate change, especially in regards to adaptation, and for allocating efforts for combating climate change among centralized governments and local administrations or institutions were proposed by researcher Bilal Sagheer in a 2018 study entitled, Climate Change in Saudi Arabia: Reconsidering the Role of Local Administration, which was published by the King Salman Center for Local Administration. He states:

(12) United Nations, Secretary-General, “Secretary-General’s Remarks on the 2019 Climate Summit,” December 4, 2018, https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2018-12-04/secretary-generals-remarks-2019-climate-summit.

13 According to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), local administrations are responsible for nearly 70% of measures to reduce climate change damage and 90% of measures to help citizens adapt to their impacts. This statistic may seem a little surprising given what we stated about international efforts to combat climate change, which usually involves representatives of local governments. But on the other hand, this data is very logical given the functions of traditional local administrations: planning and design of urban communities, the implementation of transport and land use planning, the establishment and repair of infrastructure, regulatory control, law enforcement, and provision of services. These functions make local administration stand on the front lines of any efforts to combat climate change.13

In his study, Sagheer described the experiences of three countries, Sweden, Norway, and Japan, where the role of local administrations was enhanced in combating climate change, while the centralized government was responsible for financial and technical support and for issuing general political directives to local administrations to ensure that their priorities and goals were in line with national objectives.

Local government administrative agencies have been able to enact certain policies, even in the absence of international commitments or mandatory national policies. For example, in the United States, where the Kyoto Protocol was not enacted, a thousand cities agreed to abide by the goals of the protocol through of a climate protection act ratified by their mayors. Likewise, in Rizhao, China, a city whose population exceeds 3 million, the municipality administration utilized both incentives and legislative tools to encourage the use of efficient renewable energy on a large scale. Skyscrapers are built and fitted with solar panels; 90% of families use water heaters powered by solar energy; and all traffic lights, streetlights , and park lights use electricity generated by light cells that utilize solar energy.14

(13) Bilal Sagheer, Climate Change in Saudi Arabia: Reconsidering the Role of Local Administration (Riyadh: King Salman Center for Local Administration, May 2018). (14) World Bank, Development and Climate Change.

14 Nongovernmental Institutions and Civil Society Institutions In addition to local administrations, there is also the power of nongovernmental institutions, some of which have come to play a crucial role on the international level, with the goal of connecting individuals and groups worldwide. The global system now depends on these organizations, especially the larger ones, to confirm its credibility, given that they are part of global organizations.15 They also deliver information that has to do with the environment and its problems to a wider audience and to decision makers, with the benefit that it is presented objectively and without embellishment. In addition, they provide data to be discussed and offer proposals for preserving the environment. They also engage in environmentally friendly activities such as the removal of refuse, afforestation, the preservation of green spaces, water purification, and so forth.

These nongovernmental organizations have come to participate effectively in international negotiations that have to do with environmental agreements, either by being granted the status of observer or by representing a country as part of an official delegation tasked with negotiation. They have the power to participate in decision making, and a nongovernmental organization’s participation in the process affords the state the opportunity to take advantage of its scientific, legal, and economic experience. At the same time, the organization can present its point of view and proposed solutions for environmental issues.

In Saudi Arabia, the Grassroots Organizations and Societies’ Rules and Regulations were issued by Royal Decree number M/8, dated 19/02/1437H, which authorized supervisory parties (such as government entities) to approve the establishment of associations that fall under their jurisdiction and supervise and oversee the activities of societies and institutions. In line with this development, the Ministry of Meteorology and Environment took an important step in 2017 by announcing a charter of cooperation with volunteer organizations and associations and all types of civil institutions in the realm of environmental protection. The charter includes nongovernmental entities consisting of six environmental bodies and centers, twenty-two associations, three environmental councils, and ten leagues and volunteer groups.

(15) Wafi Hajah. “Non-Governmental Institutions and Their Role in Protecting the Environment,”Jeel Al-Dirasat Al-Siyasyah wa Al-Alaqat Al-Dawliah, June 2015. The goal of the charter of cooperation is to confirm the active union between its participants to protect the environment; to open communication channels in order to exchange ideas, expertise, information, recommendations, and environmental studies; and to work toward developing national capabilities vis-à-vis protecting the environment. It also aims to facilitate the development of cooperation between all parties in terms of evaluating the environment and improving it, as well as tracking developments in the field, raising awareness, and achieving the goals of sustained development. The ministry facilitates the acquisition of required licenses for new associations that work on the environment, and regulates their relationships with regional and international environmentalist organizations. This charter is considered the general framework for organizing collaborations between national associations and civil institutions that work in the field of environmentalism. Environmentalist associations and volunteer groups present annual reports on their activities to the ministry, and a meeting between civil institutions and the ministry is held every two years.16

Conclusion With the issue of climate change becoming intertwined with political agendas, countries, including Saudi Arabia, will be faced with pressures and responsibilities to face a clear danger that has been proven by scientific research, and which the global community has united to combat. This requires increased involvement on the part of local administrations and the activation of civil institutions in accordance with the stated directives of the United Nations for the upcoming 2019 climate summit. Elevating the level of these institutions is important, not merely to play a role in raising awareness and in activities that help reduce the effects of climate change, but also to prepare them for participation in the international climate change arena. This could be achieved either through UN conventions or through forums or other summits held by global organizations or other nongovernmental groups.

(16) The charter is on the Ministry of Meteorology and Environment’s website https://www.pme.gov.sa/Ar/MediaCenter/ CommunityResponsibility/Pages/Agreement.aspx.

King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies (KFCRIS) The KFCRIS is an independent non-governmental institution based in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The Center was founded in 1403/1983 by the King Faisal Foundation (KFF) to preserve the legacy of the late King Faisal and to continue his mission of transmitting knowledge between the Kingdom and the world. The Center serves as a platform for research and Islamic Studies, bringing together researchers and research institutions from the Kingdom and across the world through conferences, workshops, and lectures, and through the production and publication of scholarly works, as well as the preservation of Islamic manuscripts. The Center’s Research Department is home to a group of established and promising researchers who endeavor to produce in-depth analyses in various fields, ranging from Contemporary Political Thought, Political Economy, and Arabic Language to Saudi Studies, Maghreb Studies, and Asian Studies. The Center also hosts the Library which preserves invaluable Islamic manuscripts, the Al-Faisal Museum for Arab Islamic Art, the Al-Faisal Institute for Human Resources Development, the Darat Al-Faisal, and the Al-Faisal Cultural Press, which issues the Al-Faisal magazine and other key intellectual periodicals. For more information, please visit the Center’s website: www.kfcris.com/en

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