BOYKOFF - ENVS 3521 ENVS 3521 Climate Politics & Policy University of Colorado-Boulder Spring 2012 Component IV – May 1 Top themes from today’s readings: public opinion & climate change - ‘Six Americas’ & cultural cognition American Teens’ Knowledge of Climate Change better understanding on a few important measures: • 57% of teens understand that global warming is caused mostly by human activities, compared to 50% of adults; • 77% of teens understand that the greenhouse effect refers to gases in the atmosphere that trap heat, compared to 66% of adults; • 52% of teens understand that carbon dioxide traps heat from the Earth’s surface, compared to 45% of adults; • 71% of teens understand that carbon dioxide is produced by the burning of fossil 2 fuels, compared to 67% of adults. 1 May 2012 1 BOYKOFF - ENVS 3521 public opinion & climate change - ‘Six Americas’ & cultural cognition cultural cognition (Dan Kahan): the tendency of individuals to form beliefs about societal dangers that reflect and reinforce their commitments to particular visions of the ideal society Carsey Institute study, University of New Hampshire (Lawrence Hamilton) on ‘Climate Change, Partisanship, Understanding and Public Opinion’ People “tend to selectively absorb information…fitting it into their pre- existing beliefs…our surveys said nothing about possible solutions or policies related to climate change. The deeply partisan responses nevertheless suggest that many people made this association themselves, basing their beliefs about science and physical reality on what they thought would be the political implications if human-caused climate change were true”. …dangers when climate science is treated as primarily political issues? 3 The Policy Process: Undue Influence? Council on Environmental Quality: Philip Cooney ~ June 2005 from The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (June 8th, 2005) from The New York Times (June 2005) 1 May 2012 2 BOYKOFF - ENVS 3521 The Policy Process: Undue Influence? McCright & Dunlap (2000, 2003) Examined media coverage of 5 ‘contrarians’ and 5 prominent climate scientists: S. Fred Singer, Robert Balling, Sallie Baliunas, Richard Lindzen, & Patrick Michaels Stephen Schneider, F. Sherwood Rowland, Bert Bolin, James Hansen, and Benjamin Santer Found 1) contrarian counterclaims gained salience, and 2) they successfully reframed climate change science and policy issues with greater uncertainty greater public confusion Top 10 Rival Assertions in Climate Contrarian Community 10. humans’ role in warming is negligible 9. global warming will be a benefit 8. satellite measurements are poor 7. sunspots are the real culprit 6. models give unrealistic prognoses 5. Sulfur Dioxide is the savior 4. inequality in commitments to reductions ruin all actions 3. there is actually global cooling 2. proposed global warming actions are draconian and bad for the economy 1. action in the face of uncertainty is unwise 1 May 2012 3 BOYKOFF - ENVS 3521 the ‘Carbon Club’: ‘sceptics’, ‘contrarians’ Richard Patrick Bjorn Lindzen Michaels Lomborg S. Fred Myron Singer Ebell Sallie Balliunas Soon & Baliunas The Iris Effect • Lindzen argues that the earth self-regulates via tropical cloud mechanisms to limit the insolation, and hence keep temperatures down 1x CO2 2 x CO2 1 May 2012 4 BOYKOFF - ENVS 3521 The Iris Effect • Theoretically possible but lacks evidence • Based on mechanisms that models find hard to simulate (and will always find hard to simulate) • God-of-the-gaps move: • Because standard theory cannot explain or test everything, it cannot explain anything • Ignores or downplays the successes of standard theory • Is evidentially empty ongoing & formidable challenges/opportunities - power of new/social media (e.g. democratizing content production; ‘noise’) – net neutrality - working within a mix of news & entertainment approaches to influence awareness & engagement via ‘expertise’ and ‘authority’ - mobilizing metaphors & analogies (e.g. hockey stick; bathtub); effective/appropriate ‘hooks’ - fostering consistent, inclusive & open engagement with science/public/policy actor communities - navigating through AND valuing varying ways of knowing: observational/experiential access to understanding vis-à-vis ‘expert’ “Allknowledge the world's a stage, and all the men and women merely players. Cambridge University Press They have their exits and their cover image designed by Ami Nacu10 - entrances…” ~ Schmidt William Shakespeare in ‘As You Like It’ 1 May 2012 5 .