A N N U A L R E P O R T

2013 – 2014 SIEPR’s Mission

The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) is a nonpartisan economic policy research organization.

SIEPR scholars conduct studies on important economic policy issues in the United States and other countries. SIEPR’s goal is to inform and advise policymakers and the public and to guide their decisions with sound policy analysis. In the course of their research, SIEPR faculty train, educate, and support PhD students as future economic policy analysts. Table of Contents

From the Director...... 2 Income and Expenditures...... 26

Highlights...... 4 Development Report...... 27

Events ...... 14 Visitors...... 33 1

Conferences and Lectures...... 16 Steering Committee...... 34

Young Scholars...... 18 Senior Fellows...... 36

Learning—Education and Training ...... 20 Advisory Board...... 42

Policy Briefs...... 24 From the Director

Dear Friends:

The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) continued to thrive from September 1, 2013, to December 31, 2014. I am proud to be the director of transition and continues in his role as director of our such an outstanding organization. China program. SIEPR’s mission is the same as it has been from Not to put any pressure on Mark and Grant, but their the beginning. We produce sound economic policy new leadership will be setting SIEPR up for at least research on the big, long-standing issues facing the next decade. the U.S. economy and economies around the world. We bring together academics, entrepreneurs, and I am not going to preview much of the material in policymakers to foster dialog in a non-partisan this report. Let me just say that SIEPR had its best environment. And we enhance the education of overall year ever in 2013–14 and is set up to surpass 2 Stanford students in economics both at the graduate that in 2014–15. This is true whether you look at and undergraduate levels. our finances, our research output, or the academic standing of our senior fellows, research fellows, post- This past 15 months have been as important as any docs, or first sabbaticals. in the 32-year history of SIEPR. After an extensive search, we found just the right person to lead SIEPR When I step down at the end of August, I will have going forward. I could not be more pleased that Mark led SIEPR for 20 years. Particularly over my 16-year Duggan, the Wayne and Jodi Cooperman Professor second term as Director, SIEPR grew and changed of Economics, will take over as SIEPR Director on dramatically. While there are many new elements to September 1, 2015. He will be terrific. I plan to stay SIEPR, I will just mention three that stand out to me. very active at SIEPR, and Mark has asked me to chair First, the research program has focused on young the steering committee. scholars, particularly the SIEPR Postdoc program and the First Sabbaticals program. We provide This past September, Grant Miller assumed the an exceptional environment for young professors directorship of the Stanford Center for International to launch their career. In my opinion, these two Development (SCID). Grant is a health economist in programs, which we lump together under the Young the Stanford Medical School who has done a lot of Scholars umbrella, are the best of their type in the work regarding developing economies. He already is world. A key to the success of the Young Scholars infusing SCID with new initiatives and ideas. Nick program has been the leadership of Gopi Shah Goda. Hope, SCID’s previous director, has been great in the Second, there is the robust development of our McCoy, Tad Taube, Wally Hawley, Don Lucas, and outreach program. The annual Economic Summit is John Gunn) and have made a number of lifelong not just a conference, it is one of the best economics friends. In the background, I have had the assistance discussions in the country. The Summit was started of the honorary chairman of the board, George P. in 2004, when the first evening speaker wasAlan Shultz. Nobody could have a better mentor. I thank Greenspan. Each year, the Summit has been great. all of the members of the Advisory Board for their The Summit is like the finale of a good 4th of July advice, generosity, and friendship. fireworks celebration. We fire off eleven or so superb Similarly, SIEPR’s growth and accomplishments would sessions all in the same day. The monthly Associates not have been possible without the entire team of meetings are actually of the same quality, they are talented and dedicated people who work here. Greg just single-topic events rather than the multi-faceted Rosston has been my deputy director these past Summit. The Associate talks and the Summit are sixteen years. He does a lot of work and I get a lot of partly how we fulfill our mission to foster dialog credit. Then there is Dafna Baldwin, Jane Bessin, between academics, entrepreneurs, and policymakers. Deborah Carvalho, Ward Hanson, Nick Hope, The third element of today’s SIEPR that has made our Shehnaz Khan, Anjini Kochar, Michelle Mosman, growth possible is the John A. and Cynthia Fry Gunn and Karen Prindle, just to name the people who have Building. Without it, there could be no Young Scholars been with SIEPR for more than ten years. They have program, for instance. We have magnificent office space. all made me look good. I thank all of the outstanding 3 SIEPR donors financed the entire cost of building and SIEPR staff, including those who have joined in the allowed SIEPR to reach its current stature. past ten years, for their magnificent contributions to the organization. There are additional new elements to SIEPR. There is the Young Associates program, Journeys of When I was asked at last year’s Advisory Board Inquiry, the SIEPR Policy Forums, the SIEPR Prize, meeting what my plan was, the answer was to “finish the annual workshop for high school teachers of strong.” Together, we are doing it. I am excited about economics, and more. The transformation of SIEPR both the current SIEPR and the future SIEPR with between 1999 and 2015 is actually pretty amazing. our new leadership. Making it all possible is the more than ten-fold increase in annual giving to SIEPR. Regards,

SIEPR’s accomplishments and growth would not have been possible without the staggering contribution of the Advisory Board. Over my tenure as SIEPR Director, the Advisory Board has lived up to its name and then some. For instance, the Economic John B. Shoven Summit was the board’s idea. I have had the privilege The Trione Director of SIEPR of working with six chairmen (George Keller, Buzz Charles R. Schwab Professor of Economics Highlights Mark Duggan’s Research September 1, 2013 – December 31, 2014 Much of Mark Duggan’s research has focused on entitlement programs such as Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). The fraction of adults Promoting better economic policy and better aged 25 to 64 receiving SSDI benefits has more than economic well-being—this is at the core of all of doubled since the late 1980s, from 2.3 percent in 1989 our work at SIEPR. It is why we support research on to 5.0 percent by 2013. Duggan’s research (with David pertinent economic and social issues, why we educate Autor and other co-authors) has investigated both the next generation of scholars and facilitate on-going the causes and the consequences of this increase. learning by teachers and practicing policymakers, A key driver of the rise in SSDI enrollment was and why we foster informed policy debate through a broadening of the program’s medical eligibility events and outreach. criteria. The impact of the resulting enrollment growth was a decline in labor force participation Research—building the policy among low-wage workers. This research is taking on knowledge base additional significance with the SSDI program’s trust fund on track to hit zero in late 2016 and Congress 4 SIEPR has maintained a reputation for quality, timely actively exploring possible reforms to the program. research, and policy dialogue. That reputation is Absent any policy changes before that time, this founded on the work our fellows and researchers would result in a sharp drop in benefits for more continue to do through our centers and programs. than 11 million U.S. residents currently receiving SIEPR welcomed new Senior Fellows. The SSDI benefits. Duggan collaborated withDavid Autor addition of Dave Donaldson, Mark Duggan, and on a proposal to reform the SSDI program and he Grant Miller increases the range and depth of has testified before Congress about the rise in SSDI enrollment and possible reforms to the program. expertise represented at SIEPR. Dave Donaldson specializes in international trade, economic history, and economic development. His work examines transportation infrastructure in colonial India, the gains from international trade, and the impacts of climate change on agricultural markets around the world. Grant Miller works on health economics, development economics, and economic demography. In 2012 he became an Associate Professor at the Stanford University School of Medicine. His focus is

Mark Duggan, the Wayne and Jodi Cooperman Professor of Economics and incoming SIEPR Director on developing more effective health strategies for Economics and the 2014 American Economic Journal: developing countries. Microeconomics Best Paper Prize (with Susan Athey). Gavin Wright was awarded the 2014 Alice Hanson Senior Fellow Paul Milgrom was awarded the Jones Prize by the Economic History Association for Golden Goose Award given by the U.S. Congress his book Sharing the Prize: The Economics of the for work that has produced an important discovery Civil Rights Revolution in the American South. or breakthrough. Milgrom—along with Preston McAfee and Robert Wilson—was recognized for his Nicholas Hope stepped down as SCID Director work on auction design, which helped the Federal and will continue to lead the China Program. Hope, Communications Commission determine how to an expert in East Asian economies, had been director allocate the nation’s telecommunications spectrum of SCID since 2007. To commemorate the event, effectively through sophisticated auctions. SCID held a conference in September 2014. Speakers included Rakesh Mohan of the IMF, Anne Kreuger, Many other SIEPR Senior Fellows received John Pencavel, John Shoven, Hope’s son Steven, and prestigious awards and accolades, testifying his wife, Ellen. to their leadership in their fields. Susan Athey received the 2014 American Economic Journal: continued on page 9 Microeconomics Best Paper Prize. Nicholas Bloom was awarded the 2014 European Investment Bank 5 for Excellence in Economic and Social Research, as well as the 2014 Ewing Marion Kauffman Prize Medal for Distinguished Research in Entrepreneurship. Pascaline Dupas was awarded the 2014 American Economic Journal: Applied Economics Best Paper Prize. Larry Goulder received the Publication of Enduring Quality Award at the Fifth World Conference of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. Caroline Hoxby was named the 2014 John and Lydia Pearce Mitchell University Fellow in Undergraduate Education; in 2013, she was granted the Smithsonian Institution Ingenuity Award. Pete Klenow was elected a fellow with the Econometric Society. Jonathan Levin was elected a member American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He also received a 2014 Guggenheim Fellowship in

Anne Krueger, SCID founder and Grant Miller new SCID Director SIEPR Research Centers

SIEPR has four research centers—the Stanford SCID’s events include the Kuo Shu Liang Memorial Center for International Development (SCID), the Lecture and the Huang Lian Memorial Lecture — Center for Employment and Economic Growth as well as a host of conferences, including the (CEEG), the Center for Public and Private Finance, Trade Conference, the Brazil Conference, the India and the Stanford Environmental and Energy Policy Economic Conference (now in its 15th year) and the Analysis Center (SEEPAC). The centers presented China Conference. a varied and rich menu of research, education, and 2014 SCID highlights. In addition to the change in policy engagement activities in 2014. leadership noted on page 9, SCID’s graduate student research fellowship program, launched in fall 2014, Stanford Center for International funded nine projects by students in economics, Development (SCID) sociology, and political science. Their work focuses SIEPR’s largest and most active research center, on India, China, Brazil, Chile, Uganda, and Myanmar, SCID has a dynamic portfolio of programs, projects, among other countries. The Academic Visitors and speaker series. Programs include four research Program began in the fall of 2014 and sponsored

6 initiatives and two country programs. The research three extended visits by development economists initiatives—The Stanford Economic Development from Harvard Business School, Brown, and MIT Sloan. Research Initiative (SEDRI), the China in Africa SCID co-hosted a conference on Trade, Productivity, Initiative, the Global Productivity Initiative, and the China Health Collaboratory—coordinate the research of Stanford faculty and also facilitate their collaboration with faculty from other universities.

The country programs focus on the fast-growing economies of India and China, engaging policymakers by sponsoring visiting scholars, research, and training, and by hosting high-level conferences. To support education and training, SCID offers student fellowships and visiting faculty many opportunities. The SCID Graduate Student Fellowships support development research. To enrich the learning environment at Stanford, SCID runs the Academic Visitors Program, which brings leading development economists on extended visits to Stanford.

China Program Director, Nick Hope and India Program Director, Anjini Kochar and Development with UK’s International Growth management practices in schools in eight countries, Center. SCID hosted 13 luncheon seminars, with and the efficiency of radio frequency spectrum speakers from Stanford, including Dave Donaldson, allocation. The Social Science and Technology Mark Duggan, Marcel Fafchamps, and Arun Seminar Series attracted speakers from MIT, Duke, Chandrasekhar, as well as speakers from other New York University, UC Berkeley, and Harvard universities, including Princeton, Peking University, Business School, among others. Topics included and PUC-Rio in Brazil. The Fifteenth Annual India innovation, management of family firms, the impact Conference was held in June 2014; speakers included of university licensing on the spread of knowledge Arvind Subramanian, the chief economic adviser to and research, market entry in the pharmaceutical the government of India. The China Conference was industry, and platform choice by app developers. held in November at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Center for Public and Private Finance (CPPF) Center for Employment and Economic CPPF is directed by Michael Boskin and John Growth (CEEG) Shoven. Faculty research interests include the CEEG is directed by Timothy Bresnahan. Faculty efficient retirement design, auctions in financial research interests include the empirical economics of markets, business perceptions of uncertainty and management practices, social and economic networks, its effects on investment, healthcare insurance entrepreneurship, intellectual property reform, competition, interest rates, inflation, and aggregate 7 healthcare, innovation, and technical change. productivity.

CEEG programs, projects, and speaker series CPPF programs, projects, and speaker series include: The Regulatory Policy Program, led by include: the Finance Program, led by John Shoven, Roger Noll and Frank Wolak, which studies the which studies financial markets and instruments, impact of regulation on the U.S. economy; the and capital allocation mechanisms; the Macro and Strategy and Organization of Mobile Innovation and Monetary Policy Program, led by Pete Klenow, Entrepreneurship project, led by Timothy Bresnahan; which studies aggregate economic phenomena; the Evolution of Cultural Norms and Dynamics of the Tax and Budget Policy Program led by Michael Socio-Political Change, led by Matthew Jackson; the Boskin, John Shoven, and Douglas Bernheim; and Collaborative Research Studies of Property Rights the California Policy Program, directed by Thomas and Merger Policy, led by Ilya Segal; and the Social MaCurdy. Projects include Economic Uncertainty Science and Technology Seminar Series. and the Great Recession, led by Nicholas Bloom; Working Longer and Retirement, led by John 2014 CEEG highlights. Research released in 2014 Shoven; and Cross Section of the Housing Market, included studies examining the market impacts of led by Monika Piazzesi. pharmaceutical product patents in India, the labor supply of self-employed workers, the human resources 2014 CPPF highlights. Research released in 2014 Plan in December 2014. SEEPAC was awarded a included studies examining health insurance grant by the U.S. Depart of Energy to sponsor a competition and the impact of disability benefits two-day workshop on new economic methods for on labor supply. The second Working Longer and examining climate policy. The workshop, Empirical Retirement Conference was in October 2014, and all and Methodological Advances in Economic Analysis of the papers presented were released as part of a of Climate Change Policy, will be held in October video volume. 2015 at SIEPR. Charles Kolstad was lead author of the book Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, released by Cambridge University Press. SEEPAC faculty participated in the SIEPR- PESD Conference on Financialization of the Energy and Environmental Markets, hosted by SIEPR Senior Stanford Environmental and Energy Policy Fellow Frank Wolak. Analysis Center (SEEPAC)

SEEPAC is directed by Lawrence Goulder. The center, a collaboration between SIEPR and the 8 Precourt Institute for Energy, fosters research on energy and environmental questions, including climate change, local air pollution, vulnerability to oil supply disruptions, and renewable energy sources. Senior Fellow Charles Kolstad serves as a core faculty member.

SEEPAC’s portfolio includes the Evaluation of Resource Costs in Imperfect Economies Project, led by Kenneth Arrow.

2014 SEEPAC Highlights. Lawrence Goulder, Charles Kolstad, and Frank Wolak, SIEPR Senior Fellows, co-authored a commentary on the Obama Administration’s Clean Power Plan in Science magazine, entitled “An Economic Perspective on the EPA’s Clean Power Plan.” They also submitted New sources of energy an extended analysis of the EPA’s Clean Power Nick Hope, continued from page 5 New SCID leadership began the work of realigning activities and investments with Stanford’s drive to become a leading hub for international economic development research and policy. The remarks of Steve and Ellen deepened our Aimed at keeping Stanford competitive with the other understanding of Nick’s passion for development. great universities, the drive is building capacity to We had seen Nick’s work, and, being university attract top scholars, engage key practitioners, and, people, we understand the intellectual and ultimately, help more people attain the means to analytical underpinnings of his work. Steve and change their own lives. Ellen showed us how much his heart was also a major component of his work. We appreciate that Grant Miller became SCID Director in September Nick’s service to us relied also on the support 2014. Miller specializes in health economics, and sacrifices of the entire Hope family. For your development economics, and economic demography. behind-the-scenes––and continuing––work to He has been at Stanford since graduating from Harvard make life better for many around the world, thank in 2006 with a Ph.D. in health policy and a focus on you from all of us at SIEPR. economics. In 2012, he became associate professor at the Stanford University School of Medicine. Miller writes that “as a development economist based at the Stanford Medical School, my overarching focus 9 is research and teaching aimed at developing more effective health improvement strategies for developing countries.”

Jessica Leino joined on as SCID Deputy Director in October 2014. Leino was a senior economist at the World Bank, working on improving the coverage and quality of social protection programs in South Asia. She joined the World Bank’s Young Professionals Program in 2008 immediately after completing her Ph.D. in economics at UC Berkeley.

Hope family — sons, Charles and Stephen along with wife, Ellen Events and Outreach—Fostering Informed Policy

SIEPR and Cornerstone Research hosted a Conference on Competition and Intellectual Property in Hi-Tech Industries on January 22, 2014. Organizers were Timothy Bresnahan and Gregory Rosston of SIEPR, and Andrea Shepard and Mike Topper of Cornerstone. Jonathan Sallet, FCC General Counsel, gave the opening address, entitled “The FCC and Competition Policy”; Howard John Shoven and Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund Shelanski, Administrator in the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs at the Office of Management and Budget, gave the lunch address; and Renatta Christine Lagarde, the Managing Director of Hesse, Deputy Assistant Attorney General of the the International Monetary Fund, spoke at a U.S. Department of Justice, gave the closing address, lunch event SIEPR hosted in partnership with entitled “At the Intersection of Antitrust and High- the Freeman Spogli Institute in February 2014. Tech: Opportunities for Constructive Engagement.” 10 Her remarks covered the IMF’s world economic outlook; the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, which she had just attended in Sydney, Australia; and the topic of innovation and global interconnectedness. The Q&A session was moderated by John Shoven.

The SIEPR Economic Summit was held on March 14, 2014. Participants included James Porteba, President of the NBER; Condoleezza Rice, former Secretary of State; Shantanu Narayen, CEO of Adobe; Pat Gelsinger, CEO of VMWare; Leon Panetta, former Secretary of Defense. The opening remarks were given by Salman Khan, Founder and Executive Director of the Khan Academy, a nonprofit that provides online instruction and learning tools to students and parents around the world. The keynote speech was given by Stanley Fischer, Vice Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve System.

Ken Bacon speaks at Critical Issue Session on Housing at the 2014 Summit Stanley Fischer received the 2014 SIEPR Prize in between demographics and entrepreneurship, and recognition of his contributions to economic research the impact of continuing or repealing the one-child and policy. Fischer has been Governor of the Bank policy. Speakers included SIEPR board member of Israel, First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, James Liang, SIEPR director John Shoven, SCID and Chief Economist at the World Bank. He spent Senior Fellow Scott Rozelle, Hans Werner Sinn most of his academic career on the faculty of MIT, of the Ifo Institute in Munich, and Hongbin Li of supervising the theses of such leading policymakers Tsinghua University, as well as a number of the top as Ben Bernanke, former chairman of the Federal young academic economists in China. Roughly 90 Reserve, and Mario Draghi, current president of the students and faculty members attended the first European Central Bank. day of the conference. While the first day was in English, the second day was in Mandarin and was Economic Demography and Urbanization held at the Alibaba Hall of the Guanghua School of in China. SIEPR held a major conference in China Management of PKU. The themes were similar, but on August 27 and 28, 2014, dealing with economic the second day was addressed to a wider audience demography and ur banization. The first day was of roughly 200 people. The Chinese press were organized as an academic conference, held at present for the second day session. By all accounts, the Stanford conference facility at PKU (Beijing these conferences were well received and influential. University), and featured sessions on the urbanization Several speakers advocated major policy changes for of China, the impact of the major demographic shifts 11 China such as the complete abolition of the one-child on China’s retirement programs, the connection

Conference co-hosts James Liang and John Shoven George Shultz gives Stan Fischer the SIEPR Prize Award policy and fairly dramatic adjustments to retirement ages, which currently are 50 and 55 for women and 60 for men. The enormous demographic transitions ongoing in China increased the level of interest in this conference.

The Fourth Annual State of the West Symposium in November addressed water in the West and the impact of AB32, California’s 2006 global warming law. The symposium, a collaboration between SIEPR and the Bill Lane Center for the American West, is a discussion forum on the economic and fiscal health of western North America, including the western United States, and western Canada and Mexico. The theme in 2014 was “How the West is Run: Infastructure Challenges for the 21st Century.” The lunch keynote presentation was given by Narayana Kocherlakota, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Patricia Mulroy speaking at the 2014 State of the West Symposium 12 Minneapolis, who spoke about the oil boom driven by drilling in the Bakken Formation, and about the making of monetary policy at the Fed. environmental research center, SEEPAC; Douglas Larson, executive director of the Western Interstate The symposium featured two panels. The Moving Energy Board; and Blas Perez Henriquez, director Water in the West panel focused on the importance of the Center for Environmental Public Policy at UC of water and water management in the West; it Berkeley. The dinner speaker was Brian Sandoval, featured Jonathan Foley, executive director of governor of Nevada and chairman of the Western the California Academy of Sciences; David Hayes, Governors Association. former Deputy Secretary of the Interior; and Patricia Mulroy, former general manager of the Southern Eight associate meetings were held in 2014. As Nevada Water Authority. in previous years, the speakers and topics were diverse. Meg Whitman, CEO of Hewlett-Packard, The California Global Warming Solution Action spoke on activities at H-P and trends in the market (AB32) After Eight Years: Impact and Regional place. Attendees included Stanford President John Response panel focused on the impact of the Hennessy. Jeff Lacker, president of the Federal 2006 legislation — what it has achieved and what Research Bank of Richmond spoke in February. its implications are for California. The panel Susan Athey spoke on Bitcoin and Virtual Currencies. featured Lawrence Goulder, director of SIEPR’s Douglas Elmedorf, Director of Congressional Budget Office, spoke on Shifting Priorities in the Federal Budget. Paul Oyer, GSB professor, spoke on the Economics of Finding the Right Match: Jobs, Schools, and Relationships. Douglas Bernheim, Chair of the Stanford Economics Department, spoke on [Whether] Financial Education Promotes Financial Competence. Richard Levin, CEO of Coursera and SIEPR consulting professor, spoke on MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) and Their Impact on Higher Education. Robert Pozen, former chairman of MFS Investment Management, spoke on Unfunded Retiree Healthcare: The Elephant in the Room. And Mark Duggan, incoming SIEPR director, spoke on Understanding Entitlement Program Challenge: A Steve Ballmer, former Microsoft CEO and owner Case Study of Social Security Disability Insurance. of the LA Clippers basketball team, and SIEPR Advisory Board member.

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Sal Khan, Director, Khan Academy, spoke at the Doug Elmendorf, Director of the Congressional 2014 Summit Budget Office Events September 1, 2013 – December 31, 2014

The Research University and American Economic Leadership SIEPR Associates meeting with Rick Levin, SIEPR Consulting Professor and former Yale University President Maya Shankar, Senior Advisor to the Deputy Director at the White House Office of Science and Technology September 25, 2013 Policy, spoke at the April 2014 Policy Forum Transforming the College Experience for Low-Income, High-Achieving Students SIEPR Special Event in San Francisco with Caroline Hoxby, the Scott and Donya Bommer World Cyberspace Cooperation Summit IV Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences; SIEPR-East/West Institute SIEPR Senior Fellow November 5, 2013 14 October 3, 2013 Impact of the VC Market on Jobs and Innovation The Banking System Five Years after Lehman SIEPR Associates meeting with Chris DiGiorgio, SIEPR Associates meeting with John Powers, Executive Research Fellow at the Accenture Institute President and CEO, Stanford Management Company, for High Performance; Mike McCaffery, Co-founder and Anat Admati, George G.C. Parker Professor of and CEO of Makena Capital Management; and Finance and Economics, Graduate School of Business, Dixon Doll, Co-founder DCM and SIEPR Advisory Stanford University Board member October 23, 2013 December 11, 2013

SIEPR Policy Forum — Big Data A Conversation with Meg Whitman Ward Hanson, Policy Forum Director SIEPR Associates meeting with Meg Whitman, Chairman, President and CEO, Hewlett-Packard October 25, 2013 January 27, 2014 Meetings with students, faculty, and Board members The Path to Financial Stability Breakfast and lunch with Timothy Geithner, former SIEPR Associates meeting with Jeff Lacker, President, Secretary of the Treasury Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, VA October 28, 2013 February 11, 2014 Meetings with Students, Faculty, and Board members SIEPR-FSI event with Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF February 25, 2014

SIEPR Economic Summit Salman Khan, Founder and Director, Khan Academy; Stanley Fischer, Distinguished Fellow, Council on Susan Athey talks about Bitcoin at April Associates meeting Foreign Relations, and former Governor, Bank of Israel March 14, 2014

Bitcoin and Virtual Currencies Does Financial Education Promote SIEPR Associates meeting with Professor Financial Competence? Susan Athey, Economics of Technology Professor, SIEPR Associates event with B. Douglas Bernheim, SIEPR Senior Fellow and Professor, by courtesy, Edward Ames Edmonds Professor of Economics & of Economics Chair of the Department of Economics, Stanford April 2, 2014 University; SIEPR Senior Fellow 15 September 30, 2014 SIEPR Policy Forum — Neuro Economics Ward Hanson, Policy Forum Director Young Global Leaders Event April 11, 2014 SIEPR-World Economic Forum October 20, 2014 Shifting Priorities in the Federal Budget SIEPR Associates meeting with Douglas Elmendorf, Unfunded Retiree Healthcare — the Elephant Director, Congressional Budget Office in the Room May 13, 2014 SIEPR Associates event with Robert Pozen, former chairman of MFS Investment Management The Economics of Finding the Right Match: November 6, 2014 Jobs, Schools, and Relationships SIEPR Associates meeting with Professor Paul Oyer, Understanding the Entitlement Program The Fred H. Merrill Professor of Economics at the Challenge: A Case Study of Social Security Stanford Graduate School of Business Disability Insurance June 5, 2014 SIEPR Associates event with Mark Duggan, The Wayne and Jodi Cooperman Professor of Economics at Stanford University, SIEPR Senior Fellow, and incoming SIEPR Director December 9, 2014 Conferences and Lectures September 1, 2013 – December 31, 2014

SCID-International Monetary Reform of Medical Education- Regional Carbon Policies Fund Conference Meeting the Challenges The Program on Energy and Nicholas Hope, SCID Director SIEPR-FRESH Thinking Sustainable Development Workshop (PESD) and Precourt Institute for September 12 and 13, 2013 Energy and TomKat Center for Vic Fuchs, Henry J. Kaiser, Jr., Sustainable Energy Professor of Economics and of SIEPR Postdoctoral Conference Health Research and Policy, Professor Frank Wolak, SIEPR Gopi Shah Goda, SIEPR Senior Emeritus, Stanford University, and Senior Fellow Research Scholar and Director, John Shoven, SIEPR Director December 5, 2013 Young Scholars Program October 17 and 18, 2013 September 27, 2013 Antitrust and High Tech SIEPR and Cornerstone joint SCID Brazil Conference conference 16 Defined Contribution Nicholas Hope, SCID Director Institutional Investment Tim Bresnahan, Landau Professor November 7, 8 and 9, 2013 Association (DCIIA) in Technology and the Economy, SIEPR Academic Conference and Gregory Rosston, SIEPR at Intel State of the West Symposium Deputy Director and Senior Fellow John Shoven, SIEPR Director SIEPR-Bill Lane Center for the January 22, 2014 October 9, 2013 American West John Shoven, SIEPR Director, and David Kennedy, Bill Lane SCID WTO Conference Working Longer Conference Nicholas Hope, SCID Director SIEPR-Center on Longevity Center Director (COL) Conference on Retirement November 14, 2013 April 24 and 25, 2014 John Shoven, SIEPR Director October 10 and 11, 2013 SCID Kuo Shu Liang Memorial Talk Global Economic Landscape and Challenges Given by Jianhai Lin, Secretary General of the IMF Nicholas Hope, SCID Director April 28, 2014 SCID 14th Huang Lian SIEPR Young Scholars SCID International Growth Memorial Lecture Conference Center (IGC) Conference Given by Dr. Xiaonian Xu, Gopi Shah Goda, SIEPR Senior Grant Miller, SCID Director Professor of Economics and Research Scholar and Director, November 14, 2014 Finance and Santander Chair in Young Scholars Program Economics and Finance, CEIBS September 29, 2014 SCID Brazil Conference Nicholas Hope, SCID Director Grant Miller, SCID Director May 6, 2014 Working Longer and Retirement November 20, 2014 Conference John Shoven, SIEPR Director SCID India Conference SIEPR PESD Conference October 9 and 10, 2014 June 2 and 3, 2014 Frank Wolak, Holbrook Working 17 Professor of Commodity Price Annual SIEPR High School SCID China Conference (China) Studies, Department of Economics, Teachers Conference Nicholas Hope, SCID Director and SIEPR Senior Fellow John Shoven, SIEPR Director November 6, 2014 December 4, 2014 July 28 – August 1, 2014 State of the West Symposium: China Conference on How the West is Run: Economic Demography and Infrastructure Challenges of the One Child Policy 21st Century John Shoven, SIEPR Director SIEPR and Bill Lane Center for the American West August 27, 2014 John Shoven, SIEPR Director, and David Kennedy, Bill Lane Center Director November 13, 2014 Young Scholars First Sabbaticals 2013 – 2014

The Young Scholars Program allows research Prashant Bharadwaj Visiting Assistant Professor, SIEPR scholars in the early stages of their careers to visit Assistant Professor of Economics Stanford. During their stay, visitors have no teaching University of California, San Diego or administrative obligations, allowing them to Christopher Conlon concentrate on their research. The Young Scholars Visiting Assistant Professor, SIEPR Program is directed by Gopi Shah Goda, a SIEPR Assistant Professor Senior Research Scholar. Columbia University

The Young Scholars Program includes two programs. Daniel Fetter Visiting Assistant Professor, SIEPR The Postdoctoral Scholars Program allows new Assistant Professor PhDs working on applied policy research to come Wellesley College to Stanford for one to three years before they start Mitsuru Igami an academic position. The First Sabbatical Program Visiting Assistant Professor, SIEPR allows junior faculty to visit Stanford for one year Assistant Professor 18 while on leave from an academic position. The annual Yale University Young Scholars Conference brings together former Cosmin Ilut and current Young Scholars to share their research Visiting Assistant Professor, SIEPR with the SIEPR and Stanford research and policy Assistant Professor community. Duke University Myrto Kalouptsidi Highlights in 2014 Visiting Assistant Professor, SIEPR Assistant Professor Postdoctoral program repositioned—to align the Princeton University program with trends in the junior faculty job market, Marti Mestieri SIEPR has begun to target those PhDs who are likely Visiting Assistant Professor, SIEPR to have a faculty position lined up following their Assistant Professor year as a postdoctoral scholar. This gap year affords Toulouse School of Economics the postdocs time to set up their research practices Benjamin Moll before taking on the full array of new faculty duties. Visiting Assistant Professor, SIEPR Assistant Professor of Economics and International Affairs Postdoctoral program welcomes PhD from Princeton University the London School of Economics— Michael Heidi Williams Best focuses on public finance and development Visiting Assistant Professor, SIEPR Assistant Professor Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics. He has examined the effects of choice SIEPR Postdoctoral of tax instruments on revenue in Pakistan; public procurement in Pakistan and in Brazil; and the Fellows response of the housing market to transaction taxes in the UK, which was featured in The Economist. 2014 Best will be in residence at SIEPR from 2014 to 2017. Michael Best (2014–2017) First Sabbaticals program welcomes assistant Ph.D. from London School of Economics professors from Yale, Duke, Toulouse School of Lorenzo Casaburi Economics, and Princeton—Mitsuru Igami from (2013–2016) Yale focuses on industrial organization, innovation, Ph.D. from Harvard University and international trade. Igami has looked at Orie Shelef creative destruction with emphasis on strategic (2013–2016) industry dynamics. Cosmin Ilut from Duke focuses Ph.D. from University of California-Berkeley Haas on macroeconomics, international finance, asset School of Business pricing, and information. He has examined how 2013 agents process and incorporate information under uncertainty. Marti Mestieri from Toulouse focuses on Lorenzo Casaburi macroeconomics. He has explored the areas of human (2013–2016) 19 Ph.D. from Harvard University capital, technology diffusion, and offshoring in the global economy. Myrto Kalouptsidi from Princeton Rebecca Diamond focuses on industrial organization. She has looked (2013–2014) Ph.D. from Harvard University at fluctuations in bulk shipping and the detection Petra Persson and impact of subsidies in shipbuilding, which was (2013–2014) featured in The Economist. Ph.D. from Columbia University Fifth Annual Young Scholars Conference held on October 3, 2014—Young Scholars, past and present, Stanford faculty, and members of the research community came to the Annual SIEPR Young Scholars Conference to discuss eight papers, seven by young scholars and one by SIEPR Visiting Scholar Marshall Burke, Assistant Professor in the Environmental Earth System Science Department. SIEPR Senior Fellows Caroline Hoxby and Larry Goulder, respectively, were discussants for the papers by Michael Best and Marshall Burke.

Petra Persson Learning—Education and Training

Learning is the essence of everything we do at The April 2014 Policy Forum focused on on the SIEPR, from nose-to-the-grindstone research in emerging field of neuro-economics. The conference secure data backrooms to top-notch events with brought together top scientists and economists leading executives, scholars, and policymakers. Even to share and discuss recent advances in neuro- so, in keeping with our mission to educate the next economics, a discipline that connects economic generation of scholars and to facilitate continued decision making and neuroscience. learning by policy practitioners and teachers, we offer In this discipline, researchers use neuro-scientific dedicated education and training initiatives. As part instruments, such as brain monitoring, to examine of the process, we run two ongoing programs, the how we frame economic and policy decisions, semiannual Policy Forum and the annual Summer handle risk, and anticipate the future. They also use Economic Institute for High School Teachers. We also economic behavior to examine how our brains work. sponsor policy education activities initiated by SIEPR The field of neuro-economics has grown rapidly in the affiliates, such as the Journeys of Inquiry. last ten years and its approaches have been adopted 20 by practitioners in fields as diverse as experimental SIEPR Policy Forum and behavioral economics, cognitive psychology, Twice a year, the SIEPR Policy Forum brings together social psychology, and business. researchers, policy practitioners, business leaders, This diversity was reflected in the six conference and Stanford students to examine topical economic sessions. issues. Since 2008 they have covered such topics as entrepreneurship; climate change; sports economics; The first session,Our Brains, Our Choices, featured social media and the economy; politics, money, and Sam McClure, assistant professor of psychology at the economy; and space entrepreneurship. The Policy Stanford, speaking on “How We Think about the Forum is directed by Ward Hanson. Future,” and Cary Frydman, assistant professor of finance and business economics at the University of Southern California, on “Optimal Financial Decision- making using Neuroeconomics.” In session two, From the Brain to White House Policy, Maya Shankar of the White House Office of Science Technology and Policy, addressed “Building a Bridge between Academic Research and the Federal Government.” At lunch time, Demo-Hour: Neuroeconomics Startups featured startups included NeuroSky, a firm building on brain monitoring technology to develop wearable biosensors for the consumer market, and Irrational Labs, a nonprofit helping socially oriented organizations to apply behavioral economics in designing products and services.

After lunch, The Grand Challenge of the Brain featured William Newsome, co-chair of the U.S. Presidential Brain Initiative and Harman Family Provostial Professor and professor of neurobiology at Stanford, on “The Presidential Brain Initiative.” Neuroeconomics Breakthroughs and Lessons Audience at Neuroeconomics Policy Forum included Antonio Rangel, Bing Professor of Neuroscience, Behavioral Biology and Economics at California Institute of Technology, who spoke on “The of high school economics education. For an entire Neuroeconomics of Self-Control,” and Brian Knutson, week, Stanford economics faculty conduct workshops associate professor of psychology and neuroscience at to steep teachers in the most current economic 21 Stanford, who delivered a talk on “Neural Predictors research, including much that has not yet reached of Purchases: Progress and Perils.” The Business the textbooks, and to exchange ideas for approaching of the Brain, a panel discussion on how companies the challenge of teaching economics. This 27-year-old are using the insights of neuroeconomics, featured program is one of the longest-running programs Caroline Winner of Neurensics USA and Gail DaMert at SIEPR. of SalesBrain. The 27th annual Summer Economic Institute for High School Teachers was held July 28 to August Summer Economic Institute for High 1, 2014. Some 75 teachers participated. The ten School Teachers workshops included: Housing Economics with John Knowledge can play a role in the policy choices that Shoven; The Economics of the Family with Petra citizens make or support. How big that role is depends Persson; The Economics of Health and Medical on the ability of citizens to acquire and process Care with Michael Dickstein; The Economics of economic information. For many citizens, developing Microfinance and its Impact on the Fight against this analytical ability starts, and often ends, with Poverty with Pascaline Dupas; Why Is U.S. Health high school economics. The Summer Institute for Care So Costly? with Victor Fuchs; The Economic High School Teachers aims to improve the quality Consequences of Voting Rights with Gavin Wright; Inequality and the Financial Crisis with importance of creating a fit between strategy and Luigi Pistaferri; Behavioral and Experimental design in an organization, and why organizations of Economics with Charles Sprenger; Investment the same kind may make different decisions in this under Uncertainty with Ian Wright; and How regard. One of the key purposes of the class is to Responsive Is Investment in Schooling to Changes further the understanding of how an organization’s in Redistributive Policies and in Returns with Ran systems of rewards, authority, and technology must Abramitzky. Workshops also took place on teaching complement each other to generate value. Another ideas, resources, and challenges. is to shed light on the challenges involved in making changes in strategy and organizational design. Journeys of Inquiry The trip allowed students to apply their academic knowledge to the field of central banking. Good knowledge of context regarding how people live—their workaday challenges and Independent Education and Training Activities opportunities—makes for both good research and good policy. With knowledge of context, both the John Shoven taught a Sophomore College class researcher and policymaker can ask and answer called A Random Walk Down Wall Street, named more cogent questions and design more effective after Burton Milkiel’s book of the same title. The solutions to real problems. course introduced modern finance theory and the 22 workings of a wide range of financial instruments, The Journeys of Inquiry at SIEPR allows students including stocks, bonds, options, mutual funds, to go to the frontlines of policymaking in field trips exchange-traded funds, and mortgage-backed initiated and guided by Stanford faculty. The student securities. The 2014 class examined topics such as groups are kept small by design to allow for greater global financial markets, the capital asset pricing personal attention. In the past, SIEPR researchers model, problems of the real economy including the Pascaline Dupas and Anjini Kochar have led trips to entitlement programs, and links between financial field research sites in India and Uganda. The Journeys markets and policies to stimulate the economy, such of Inquiry has been funded through gifts made by as quantitative easing. Guest lecturers included John and Cynthia Fry Gunn and Martin and Sue Koffel. venture capitalists, Federal Reserve officials, and SIEPR Senior Research Scholar Eva Meyersson managers of hedge funds, mutual funds, and large Milgrom led 12 students on a visit to 3 central institutional endowments. banks: the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Riksbank in Stockholm, Sweden. The trip was the culmination of the Global Organization: The Matrix of Change course, which Meyersson Milgrom teaches during the winter quarter at Stanford. The class examines the Learning with MOOCs — SIEPR faculty are doing ground- breaking work on Massive Open Online Courses

The year 2014 may well be remembered as the year Levin noted that posted content becomes available the MOOC came to SIEPR. At least three SIEPR to anyone who has an internet connection. This faculty are working on MOOCs. SIEPR Consulting gives the MOOCs their scale, a characteristic he said Professor Richard Levin is CEO of Coursera, a leading was democratizing higher education. Indeed, while MOOC platform provider. Matt Jackson, a SIEPR enrollment in Taylor’s in-person Stanford course researcher, has delivered three courses on Coursera. was kept to 25 students, enrollment in his open Senior Fellow John Taylor did what had never been track course reached 15,000 students in more than done––he delivered a Stanford class entirely through 150 countries, most of them poor countries in Asia Stanford Online, offering it to both students and the and Africa. general public. SIEPR itself got involved, hosting a Will MOOCs disrupt higher education? Taylor wrote meeting on MOOCs that was attended by more than a that his experience “starting small, dovetailing hundred SIEPR associates. with, rather than replacing, existing structures, and Taylor described what he learned developing and collaborating with people in other fields, has been teaching Econ 1 entirely online in an op-ed in the about creating new ways of teaching and learning, 23 September 2014 Wall Street Journal. Levin spoke building on rather than disrupting existing ones.” about his experiences as Coursera CEO at the Levin said that MOOCs could not replace the intense associates meeting in October 2014. Both covered key personal experience of being at a great residential considerations about MOOCs, including how they are university; instead they will enable universities to produced, how they give the teacher scale, and what rethink teaching. Their overall effect, then, will not they portend for higher education. be as a disruptive innovation but a force multiplier; they are likely to help universities to fulfill their Taylor recounts going to a studio after each classroom mission to disseminate the knowledge they generate. lecture to record the same lecture, but breaking it into smaller segments. The producers would then mix Levin said that universities should create more in graphs, photos, videos, illustrations, and captions, MOOCs because they increase visibility and attract and index the video to facilitate searching. The students and engage professors in feedback. Taylor resulting 70 video modules, along with supplementary would concur; he writes that the messages of thanks study materials and interactive features, were then received from students in the poorest countries in posted at Stanford Online, a free and open platform. the world, all eager to learn and grateful for the Levin described a similar process of modularizing, opportunity, were tremendously engaging. augmenting, and posting on a free and open platform. Policy Briefs

The Labor Market Effects of the VA’s Disability U.S. Workers’ Diverging Locations: Compensation Program Policy and Inequality Implications Mark Duggan, The Wayne and Jodi Cooperman Rebecca Diamond, Assistant Professor of Economics Professor of Economics Stanford Graduate School of Business November 17, 2014 June 27, 2014

Universities Can Do Better Than Symbolism: The Implementation and Evaluation of School A Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax Decentralization Programs in Developing Frank Wolak, Holbrook Working Professor in Economies: Evidence from India Commodity Price Studies and SIEPR Senior Fellow Anjini Kochar, SCID Senior Research Scholar, India October 8, 2014 Program Director June 4, 2014 Did the 2013 Government Shutdown Severely Damage the U.S. Economy? China’s Currency Conundrum 24 Scott Baker and Constantine Yannelis, Economics Ronald McKinnon, William D. Eberle Professor of graduate students International Economics and SIEPR Senior Fellow September 19, 2014 May 7, 2014

Turkish Economic Successes and Challenges Do Firms Underinvest In Long-Term Anne Krueger, Herald L. and Caroline Ritch Research? Evidence From Cancer Emeritus Professor of Sciences and Humanities in the Clinical Trials Economics Department and SCID Senior Fellow Eric Budish, Chicago Booth; Benjamin Roin, Harvard September 19, 2014 Law School; Heidi Williams, Assistant Professor of Economics at MIT and SIEPR Visiting Assistant Menu Choices in Defined Contribution Professor and First Sabbatical Pension Plans May 7, 2014 Clemens Sialm, Mark and Sheila Wolfson Distinguished Visiting Associate Professor at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and an Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Texas in Austin August 18, 2014 Leadership or Crisis India’s Economic Challenges Leon Panetta, Chairman of the Panetta Institute, Anne Krueger, Herald L. and Caroline Ritch Former Secretary of Defense Emeritus Professor of Sciences and Humanities in the April 14, 2014 Economics Department and SCID Senior Fellow November 5, 2013 Disability Insurance and the Dynamics of the Incentive-Insurance Tradeoff Tapering Without Tears Luigi Pistaferri, Professor of Economics at Stanford Ronald McKinnon, William D. Eberle Professor of University, SIEPR Senior Fellow International Economics and SIEPR Senior Fellow April 10, 2014 October 25, 2013

Who Pays For Climate Regulation? Bad Bets and Incentives for Risk-Taking Charles Kolstad, SIEPR Senior Fellow; Senior Fellow, Orie Shelef, SIEPR Postdoctoral Fellow Precourt Institute for Energy; and Professor, by October 1, 2013 courtesy, of Economics January 6, 2014 How Changing Government Spending Affects Inequality Should We Blame Walmart and Nike for the Juan Carlos Suarez Serrato, SIEPR Postdoctoral Factory Collapses in Bangladesh? Fellow 25 Mari Tanaka, Walter H. Shorenstein Predoctoral September 11, 2013 Fellow in Contemporary Asia November 29, 2013 Stanford University • September 2014

Stanford University • October 2014 SIEPRpolicy brief

Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research on the web: http://siepr.stanford.edu Stanford University • July 2014 SIEPR Stanford University • September 2014 policy brief Did the 2013 Government Shutdown Severely Damage the U.S. Economy? SIEPR Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research on the web: http://siepr.stanford.edu SIEPR By Scott R. Baker and Constantine Yannelis

policy brief policy brief The 2013 government shutdown policy implications, as many Universities Can Do Better Than Symbolism: was a disaster for federal government public programs, ranging from About The Author Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research on the web: http://siepr.stanford.edu Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research on the web: http://siepr.stanford.edu employees—nearly 3 million unemployment insurance to income Scott Ross Baker is an Assistant Professor of Finance employees lost their main income taxes to social security, affect A Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax and Donald P. Jacobs Scholar source during the shutdown, with household income. at Northwestern University. By Frank Wolak 800,000 of these workers being Following a dispute over funding His research is concentrated furloughed and sent home during in empirical finance and U.S. Workers’ Diverging Locations: Turkish Economic Successes for the Patient Protection and macroeconomics. He is this period. We study this event The Stanford Board of Trustees Moreover, I believe there is a far Affordable Care Act, on October currently engaged in a variety recently announced that the more productive way for Stanford About The Author and compare federal government of research projects regarding household Policy and Inequality Implications and other universities to address the and Challenges 1, 2013, the federal government university will not make direct workers to state government leverage, the effects of policy uncertainty By Rebecca Diamond investments in coal-mining climate challenge that is completely Frank Wolak is the Holbrook By Anne O. Krueger shut down, and remained so, for on financial markets and growth, as well as companies. This action was taken consistent with their teaching workers, who were unaffected by the effects of unemployment benefits on Working Professor of approximately two weeks. During in response to broader efforts at and research missions that will Commodity Price Studies in the shutdown. We find that workers job search intensity. Recent work examines positively contribute to the US and this time, the politicians who the impact of household leverage and Introduction high skill cities are diverging from Stanford and other universities to rid the Economics Department Turkey has never been a more is vital. The Turkish economy is whose pay was interrupted during their endowments of investments other countries taking meaningful credit constraints in driving sensitivity to Over the past three decades, those with fewer college graduates About The Author and the Director of the strategic country than it is now. already big, and if economic growth About The Author the shutdown significantly cut arguably caused the shutdown the earnings of workers with a (Moretti, 2013). in fossil fuels. Such efforts have action to address the global climate both income and asset shocks during the Program on Energy and With a large Muslim majority, the accelerates — as it has the potential were still paid. As Rep. Renee college education have substantially The increase in spatial sorting not been confined to universities. challenge. spending in their households, and Great Recession. Scott joined the Finance Rebecca Diamond is an Assistant Professor Sustainable Development. Anne Krueger is a Senior increased relative to those with of college and non-college workers In fact, a number of non-profit nation is by its constitution a secular to do — Turkey’s real GDP will be that this cut was even larger for Elmers put it: “I need my paycheck. Department at Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Economics at the Stanford Graduate School Climate Change Is Not Really Wolak’s recent research focuses on Fellow at the Stanford of Management in July 2014. less education. In 1980, the average into very different cities calls foundations have made similar state. It is a democracy, and with 75 among the largest in Europe. That’s the bottom line.1” However, of Business. She is an applied furloughed workers who stayed college graduate earned 38% more into question whether the large announcements. Like Apartheid regulation, design, and monitoring of Center for International Constantine Yannelis is a million people, it has a population The period since 2001 has seen home—suggesting that much of the most regular federal workers were than the average high school increases in wage inequality micro economist studying Because other universities and Advocates of fossil fuel energy and environmental markets. From Development (of which she fifth year PhD candidate in graduate. By 2000, the college-high over the past three decades truly non-profits are likely to follow divestiture often draw parallels April 1998 to April 2011, he was Chair of the about the same as Germany’s. the first majority government in drop in spending can be explained affected, with nearly all federal local labor and housing was the founding Director) the Stanford Department represents a similar increase in between investments in firms school graduate wage gap increased markets. Her recent research Stanford’s lead, it is important to Market Surveillance Committee (MSC) of the Although its per capita income is many years, although political by changes in time allocation as government employees missing at of Economics. His research economic well-being inequality. that produce fossil fuels and and the Herald L. and Caroline to 57%, and by 2011 it rose to evaluate the consequences of this California Independent System Operator. In still low by European standards, divisions have recently increased focuses on empirical labor 1 focuses on the causes and investments in South African firms well as a decline in income. 73%. At the same time, workers Since college graduates are paying action and consider whether a more this capacity, he has testified numerous times Ritch Emeritus Professor of Sciences and and public economics. He have become increasingly spatially much higher housing costs than consequences of diverging productive approach is available during Apartheid. However, climate Turkey had the highest growth sharply. And the Arab spring The 2013 government shutdown 1 http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/ has previously worked as change is a global public policy at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Humanities in the Economics Department stupidquotes/a/Government-Shutdown-Quotes. segregated by education. Cities that lower skill workers, it is possible economic growth across US to address the climate challenge. rate of any European country seemed to promise a much better provides an ideal policy experiment htm It is worthwhile to point out that many an Associate Economist at (FERC), and at various Committees of the initially had a large share of college that these high local prices dilute challenge that should be solved at Stanford University. Currently, she is a lawmakers voluntarily donated, refused, or held the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and cities and its effects on inequality. She was a Here’s part of the problem: even the during much of the last decade. neighborhood for the Turks until to analyze the effects of changes in escrow their pay during the shutdown. using the best possible scientific US Senate and House of Representatives on at the OECD. Constantine received a B.A. in graduates in 1980 increasingly the real amount of consumption Postdoctoral Fellow at the Stanford Institute most avid proponents of divestiture professor at the John Hopkins University, and economic analysis. Saying that issues relating to market monitoring and As with other major emerging recent reversals and the conflict in income on consumption. attracted larger shares of college college workers’ received from acknowledge that it constitutes a School for Advanced International Studies. Economics and History from the University of for Economic Policy Research from 2013 to a firm that produces fossil fuels is educated workers from 1980 to their high wages. For example, in symbolic gesture, a gesture that will regulatory oversight of energy markets. Until markets, however, growth has in Syria, which have undermined This question has a number of continued on inside... Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a Masters in 2014. She received her PhD in economics doing something as morally wrong Anne Krueger was First Deputy Managing 2000, while cities with relatively 2013 the median studio apartment not in and of itself reduce global December 2013, Wolak served as a member slowed abruptly and there are major that. The country itself is at a Applied Mathematics from the University of as a firm operating under Apartheid Paris I: Pantheon-Sorbonne. less educated populations in 1980 in San Francisco sold for $863,000, from Harvard University in 2013. greenhouse (GHG) emissions. of the Emissions Market Advisory Committee Director of the International Monetary Fund seems misguided at best, for the uncertainties as to whether Turkey turning point. There are critical gained few college grads over the however the median 4-bedroom Presumably, these same advocates (EMAC) for California’s market for greenhouse from 2001 to 2006. reasons discussed below. will fall into a “middle-income trap” foreign policy issues, challenges to following 20 years. The increasingly house could be purchased in Las believe it might, however, lead to gas emissions allowances. This committee Vegas for only $220,100.2 It therefore seems inappropriate to “highly educated cities” also substantial change in United States advised the California Air Resources Board or resume her stellar performance. economic policy at home, and sharp experienced higher wage growth On the other hand, college paint climate change and Apartheid (US) climate policy through a kind with the same brush or address them on the design and monitoring of the state’s With the Middle East in turmoil, divides in the electorate. for both low- and high-skill workers workers chose to live in expensive of chain reaction. Will it? I have cap-and-trade market for greenhouse gas Turkey is a crucially important Turkey became a separate and substantially larger increases cities. They were free to locate serious doubts for the reasons emissions allowances. in housing costs. The economic in the more affordable locations discussed below. continued on inside... nation. Because of her location, country after the First World trajectories of these increasing elected by high school graduates, her geopolitical importance cannot War. Over the next two decades, but instead elected to pay the higher local prices. In exchange be underestimated. Because the Ataturk revolutionized the nation 1 Estimates refer to workers employed at least 35 hours per week and 50 weeks per year within country offers a model of democracy in countless ways. The language the ages of 25 and 55. Controls include race, Hispanic origin, sex, and experience. Data are 2 These data come from Zillow.com for other Muslim, and especially from 1980 and 2000 US Censuses, and the 2011 American Community Survey. continued on inside... Arab, countries, her political success continued on inside... Income and Expenditures

Sources of Income SIEPR Expenditures September 1, 2013 – August 31, 2014 September 1, 2013 – August 31, 2014

Associates & Friends...... $3,922,838 Conferences...... $1,773,279 Corporations (Project Support)...... $676,985 Grad Students...... $1,829,868 Corporations (General Support)...... $503,423 Postdocs/1st Sabbaticals...... $1,176,817 Foundations (Sponsored Projects)...... $1,244,518 Faculty Research...... $4,696,197 Foundations (General Support)...... $532,526 Administration...... $1,455,482 Government (Sponsored Projects)...... $1,740,518 Communications...... $852,624 Endowment...... $1,896,151 Development...... $948,153 University...... $707,025 ...... $12,732,419 Miscellaneous...... $1,565,329

...... $$12,789,314

26 University Development Conferences 5% 8% 14% Miscellaneous Associates & Friends Communications Grad Students 12% 31% Endowment 7% 14% 15%

Government Foundations Corporations Administration Faculty Research Postdocs/ 14% 14% 9% 11% 37% 1st Sabbaticals 9% Development Report

In the 2013–2014 fiscal year, the Stanford Institute SIEPR added four new advisory board members. for Economic Policy Research raised a total of $5.6M Steve Ballmer, John Kleinheinz, Dan’l Lewin, and in gifts, a 7 percent decrease from the previous Ken Olivier accepted board positions, and we will be year. This includes $2.1M in restricted and $3.5M making more additions to the Board in FY14–15. in unrestricted funds. SIEPR fundraising includes The 2013–2014 year was an exciting one for SCID. annual and major gifts; sponsored projects are not SCID received a pledge for $3M over five years included in this amount. The number of donors from an anonymous donor to support research and increased by 6 percent, from 273 to 291. programs related to China. The first payment will be FY12-13 included a single major gift $1M. Excluding received in 2014–2015, which should assure that we this $1M, annual fundraising increased 12% from return to a growth path in overall gift-giving. SCID FY12-13 to FY13-14. SIEPR Fundraising continues has also launched several new research initiatives to provide the resources necessary for growth at the that bring together faculty working on different institute, allowing for the expansion of programs and aspects of international development, including new research that fulfill our mission to provide sound 27 policy analysis.

The chart below shows the trend of growth over the past six years. Total giving has approximately doubled over this period.

SEIPR Fundraising

$7,000,000

$6,000,000

$5,000,000

$4,000,000

$3,000,000

$2,000,000

$1,000,000

$0 FY FY FY FY FY FY 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14

Courtyard of the John A. and Cynthia Fry Gunn building work on governance and service delivery in Africa, alumni and welcomed three new YA’s — Amanda health policy in China, and productivity and economic Levin, Anjney Midha, and Emily Tian — as well as growth. one new sponsor — Blake Grossman. This unique program aims to create a strong connection between The 2013–2014 year also saw the creation of the SIEPR and young alumni, helping to foster the next John Shoven Young Scholars Fund, which will honor generation of economists and supporters. Feedback John Shoven’s decades-long tenure at the SIEPR from the first “class” of YA’s was positive and helm upon his retirement as SIEPR director in constructive, and Young Associates showed strong August 2015. The fund will support the SIEPR Young attendance at SIEPR events. We’d like to thank the Scholars program, a unique initiative that has been a program sponsors and participants entering the hallmark of John’s time as SIEPR Director (see page FY14–15 year: 18). Our goal is to raise $3–4M; several significant commitments to the fund have already been made, Sponsors Young Associates and we look forward to ensuring the longevity of the Young Scholars program through this fund. • Dixon Doll • Wilson Bowen • Pat Gross • Lauren Colbert As SIEPR’s Young Associates program entered its second year, we bid farewell to four program • Blake Grossman • William Faulkner

28 • John Gunn • Anda Gansca • Wally Hawley • Andrew Hung • Pitch Johnson • Samir Junnarkar • Brad Kapnick • Amanda Levin • Sue Koffel • Anjney Midha • John Lipsky • Eric Mitzenmacher • Eff Martin • Sam Shapiro • Charles Schwab • Emily Tian • Minh Dan Vuong

The 2014 SIEPR Economic Summit was our most popular event of FY13–14. SIEPR raised $685,000 from Summit sponsorships, table purchases, and ticket revenue, a four percent increase from the previous year. Net of costs, we closed more than $165,000 on the Summit event. Special thanks go to

Koret-Taube Sponsorship at the 2014 Summit our 2014 Economic Summit Sponsors: Dodge & Cox • The Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation Investment Managers, Heidrick & Struggles, the Koret • Leonard and Shirley Ely Foundation, and URS. We are also grateful for the • John and Yvette Gurley support of our table purchasers: Bank of America, Bay City Capital, C.M. Capital Corporation, Dodge & Cox • Wally Hawley Investment Managers, Ernst & Young, Silicon Valley • The Kapnick Family Foundation Bank, and Wells Fargo. Their support ensures the • Steve and Gale Kohlhagen continued success of this marquee event. Ultimately, • George P. Shultz our strategy is to increase the donor base through our annual giving program, and we expect to see a The generosity of past supporters and current donors decrease of Summit revenue from sponsors and table enables SIEPR to deliver on its mission to address purchasers in coming years. economic challenges through scholarly research and discussions with policymakers and the business SIEPR has seven different named funds to support community. graduate student research, the majority of which go to fifth- and sixth-year graduate students who are completing their dissertations. We wish to thank our donors for supporting fellowships: 29

George Shultz, John Gunn, and Victor Trione Donor List

Benefactors* Vijaya & Kumar Cathie & Pitch Johnson Forbes Marshall Ltd. Malavalli Anonymous (2) The Kapnick Family GE Barbara & Buzz McCoy The Annenberg John Kleinheinz Godrej Industries Foundation Deedee & Sue Koffel Limited Burt McMurtry Carol Baxter Koret Foundation Arthur Graham Betty & Gordon Moore The Lynde & Harry James Liang Grace & Laurance Ken Olivier & Hoagland Bradley Foundation Michael G. McCaffery Angela Nomellini Benny T. Hu The Gordon & Mary Cain Susan & Craig McCaw Foundation Paramitas Foundation/ Eff W. Martin Winston Chen Deedee & Datong Chen Burt McMurtry Barbara & Buzz McCoy Kanwal S. Rekhi, Shirley Ross Davis Bowen H. & Janice Inventus Captial Microsoft Corporation Arthur McCoy Feng Deng Ken Olivier & Charles R. Schwab Charitable The Dixon & Carol Doll Angela Nomellini The Searle Freedom Foundation Family Foundation Paramitas Foundation/ Trust Charles Pohl & Shirley & Leonard Ely Winston Chen Tad & Dianne Taube Eve Niquette 30 John A. & Eric & Wendy Schmidt Vic Trione Myron Scholes Cynthia Fry Gunn Charles R. Schwab Sidney Frank Yvette & John Gurley Director’s Circle Jesse Rogers Importing Co., Inc. Wallace Hawley Steve Ballmer Thomas F. Stephenson US Bank The William & Flora The Lynde & Harry David Topper Commercial Banking Hewlett Foundation Bradley Foundation Vic Trione Wells Fargo Cathie & Pitch Johnson Datong Chen Mark & Sheila Wolfson The Kapnick Family Jonathan Coslet Leadership Circle Neeru & Vinod Khosla David & Carla Crane Anonymous (1) Investors Steve & Gale Kohlhagen Feng Deng Accenture LLP Anonymous (5) Koret Foundation ExxonMobil Foundation The Arrillaga Foundation Aetos Alternatives Management, LLC James Liang Blake R. Grossman Sonja & Bill Davidow American Century Donald L. Lucas John A. & The Dixon & Carol Doll Investments The Lucas Brothers Cynthia Fry Gunn Family Foundation Arell Foundation Foundation Wallace Hawley William Edwards BNY Mellon Wealth The William and Flora Shirley Ely Management Hewlett Foundation ExxonMobil Corporation Elizabeth Bailey *$500K + Lifetime Contribution Bank of America Prabhu & Poonam Goel Betty & Gordon Moore The Valley Fund Bank of the West Google, Inc. Jeff Morgan H.A. Wagner Anne T. and Robert Greeley Mervin Morris David Wah Robert M. Bass Patrick W. Gross Thruston Morton Danielle and Bruce & Lorna Basso Gurtin Fixed Income Richard Murawczyk Tom Walker A. George (Skip) Battle Management & Laura Aryeh WestBridge Capital Bay City Capital Hall Capital Partners, Murawczyk Akiko Yamazaki & Foundation LLC Needham & Company, Jerry Yang S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Bruce & Elizabeth Hart LLC Alan & Judy Zafran Foundation Bob & Holly Hellman Bill & Susan Oberndorf Matthew Zuck Foundation Tanya S. Beder Grace & BlackRock, Inc. Laurance Hoagland Douglas & Emilie Ogden Associates John B. Boatwright Laurie & Robert Hodrick Alan L. Olsen Anonymous (1) Michael & Chris Boskin JPMorgan Private Bank Oracle Corporation R. David Andrews Edgar Buttner & Kurt Jaggers Robert & Marion Oster Arnof Family Foundation Rosemary Chang J. Scott Kaspick John & Barbara Packard David & Martha Arscott Cadence Design Harry W. Kellogg, Jr. Ellen & Bob Peck Systems, Inc. G. Leonard Baker, Jr. Gregory D. Kennedy Prologis, Inc. 31 C. M. Capital & Mary Anne Nyburg Gail & Fred Kittler Christopher Redlich, Jr. Corporation Baker Steve & Gale Kohlhagen Ann & Kanwal Rekhi Cornerstone Research Mackenzie Banks KPMG LLP Condoleezza Rice J. Taylor Crandall Matthew Barger Barnaby Levin George Scalise Alan Crites Dr. & Mrs. Mario Belotti David Lichtenger Susan & Eugene Shanks Lauren B. Dachs Robert C. Bertelson Hong Seh Lim A. Horton Shapiro Katherine & Wendell W. Birkhofer John B. Sias David deWilde John Lipsky & Barbara W. Bishop Zsuzsanna Karasz Silicon Valley Bank Christopher DiGiorgio David Bizer Andrew Ludwick John F. Sandy Smith Susan Ford Dorsey & Rick Blume Makena Capital Sam Srinivasan Michael Dorsey Susan L. Bostrom Management LLC Gene Sykes Richard J. Elkus, Jr. Wilson Bowen Karen & George Stanford Federal Ernst & Young, LLP Sara & Michael Buckley McCown Credit Union Farallon Capital Anthony P. Meier T. Robert Burke Management, LLC Curtis S. Tamkin Georgianna A. & Jack & Casey Carsten John Freidenrich John T. Thompson Thomas C. Melzer Cerus Corporation General Atlantic, LLC Three Bridge Richard Mirabella Wealth Advisors Andy Chase Lauren Colbert Keare/Hodge Lynn Anderson Poole Matt Garlinghouse Leonard Collins Family Foundation Michael G. Rantz Linda Graebner A. Crawford Cooley Scott Kepner Scott Rash Robert N. Grant Michael Couch John E. Kerrigan, Jr. Erik Renander Griffin Black, Inc. Steven Aaron Denning John Kispert Janice G. Rosse William J. Hagenah Jerry Down Katie Kormanik Sand Hill Global Bob Huret William H. & Lamoreaux Capital Advisors LLC Judy Huret Management LLC Phyllis C. Draper Edward Schultz George Jewett Kurt A. Latta Donna L. Dubinsky Sam Shapiro James P. King Bryce Lee Dr. Marcy Elkind Lindy Sherwood Carol Kornfeld Legacy Venture William Faulkner George P. Shultz Douglas Levick Dan’l Lewin Fenton Family Steven Stein Keith R. Lobo Foundation Patrick C. Lin Thomas K. Stroud George Marotta John Fisher Tom Lockard Robert and Sumir Meghani Norman Fogelsong Richard A. Magnuson Maryette Thompson Denis Minev Anda Gansca Brian Evans Mariscal URS Corporation Lorraine Monick Ned Gilhuly Susan Meaney Minh Dan Vuong 32 Betsy Morgenthaler Douglass Given Axel Merk Friends Missy & Jeff Morris Ken Goldman Arjay Miller Anonymous (2) Rosemary & Fred & Linda Grauer Kenneth F. Miller William Nichols Henry Aaron Richard Gray Eric Mitzenmacher PEER Ventures, LCC Analysis Group, Inc. Harry Hagey Joel R. Mogy William J. Perry Orley Ashenfelter The HAND Foundation Meridee R. Moore Peter Pervere Brian Avery Mr. & Mrs. Daniel Morehead James Poterba Antonio Bernardo & William Harding James C. Morgan Karen Van Nuys Gregory L. Rosston Steve Harrick David T. Morgenthaler Mary G. F. Bitterman Bernard Rubin Heidrick & Struggles Diane Morris Rich Branning Jay Siegel Dr. Hamilton W. Helmer Demoni Newman John Brew Tom and Elisa Simmons Kevin Huang John O’Donnell William J. Codiga Ethan J. Sufian Andrew Hung Osborne Partners Bruce Cozadd & James C. Van Horne Joel Hyatt Capital Management Sharon Hoffman Walden International Samir Junnarkar Outrider Management, Allen F. Damon Peter & Lynn Wendell LLC Michael Dean Lewis Williams Pacific Pension Institute Kenneth Dewey Paul R. Perez As of 9/10/2014 Visitors

2013 – 2014

L. Kamran Bilir Richard Levin Assistant Professor Former President University of Wisconsin-Madison Yale University Marshall Burke Eduardo Morales Assistant Professor Assistant Professor Environmental Earth System Science Columbia University Stanford University Chiaki Moriguchi Dan Fetter Professor Assistant Professor Hitotsubashi University Wellesley College Sandra Sequeira Matthew Gentzkow Assistant Professor Trione Visiting Professor, SIEPR London School of Economics 33 Richard O. Ryan Professor of Economics and Clemens Sialm Neubauer Family Faculty Fellow Mark Wolfson Distinguished Visiting Professor, University of Chicago Booth School of Business SIEPR Duncan Gilchrist Associate Professor of Finance Exchange Scholar McCombs School of Business Harvard University University of Texas at Austin Aldo Guena Robert J. Willis Professor of Economics Professor of Economics University of Torino University of Michigan Yinghua He Lawrence Wu Visiting Scholar Visiting Scholar, SIEPR Junior Chair (Assistant Professor) President Toulouse School of Economics National Economic Research Associates, Inc. Sam Lee Arvids Ziedonis Assistant Professor of Finance Visiting Scholar, SIEPR New York University Steering Committee

Masahiko Aoki Michael J. Boskin Roger G. Noll Henri and Tomoye Takahashi T.M. Friedman Professor of Professor, Emeritus Professor Emeritus of Japanese Economics Department of Economics Studies Department of Economics Professor (by courtesy) Department of Economics Senior Fellow, Hoover Department of Political Science Senior Fellow, FSI Institution Professor (by courtesy) Stanford University Stanford University Graduate School of Business Kenneth Arrow Timothy Bresnahan Stanford University Joan Kenney Professor of Landau Professor in Technology Bruce Owen Economics and Professor of and the Economy Morris M. Doyle Centennial Operations Research, Emeritus Department of Economics Professor in Public Policy, Department of Economics Stanford University Emeritus 34 (Senior Fellow by courtesy), FSI John Cogan Stanford University Stanford University Leonard and Shirley Ely Senior John H. Pencavel Fellow B. Douglas Bernheim The Pauline K. Levin-Robert L. Hoover Institution Edward Ames Edmonds Levin and Pauline C. Levin- Stanford University Professor of Economics Abraham Levin Professor in Chair Paul A. David the School of Humanities and Department of Economics Professor Emeritus (and by Sciences Stanford University courtesy, Professor of History) Department of Economics Department of Economics Stanford University Stanford University

Lawrence H. Goulder Shuzo Nishihara Professor of Environmental and Resource Economics Department of Economics Stanford University A. Mitchell Polinsky James L. Sweeney Frank Wolak Josephine Scott Crocker Professor Holbrook Working Professor of Professor of Law and Economics Department of Management Commodity Price Studies Director, John M. Olin Program Science and Engineering Department of Economics in Law and Economics Director Senior Fellow Law School Precourt Institute for Energy Freeman Spogli Institute Professor (by courtesy) Efficiency Stanford University Department of Economics Senior Fellow (by courtesy) Gavin Wright Stanford University Hoover Institution William Robertson Coe Professor John B. Shoven of American Economic History Senior Fellow The Trione Director of SIEPR Department of Economics Freeman Spogli Institute Stanford University Charles R. Schwab Professor Senior Fellow of Economics 35 Woods Institute for the Department of Economics Environment Buzz and Barbara McCoy Stanford University Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution John B. Taylor Stanford University Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics Department of Economics

George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics Hoover Institution Stanford University Senior Fellows

Masahiko Aoki Jay Bhattacharya Timothy Bresnahan Henri and Tomoye Professor of Medicine Landau Professor in Technology Takahashi Professor Emeritus CHP/PCOR Core Faculty and the Economy of Japanese Studies Member Department of Economics Department of Economics School of Medicine Stanford University Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Stanford University Institute Jeremy Bulow Professor of Economics Stanford University Nicholas Bloom Graduate School of Business Professor Kenneth Arrow Department of Economics and Stanford University Joan Kenney Professor of (by courtesy) Graduate School Economics and Professor of Gerhard Casper of Business Operations Research, Emeritus President Emeritus Stanford University Department of Economics Stanford University Senior Fellow (by courtesy), Michael J. Boskin 36 Freeman Spogli Institute Senior Fellow, Freeman T.M. Friedman Professor of Spogli Institute Stanford University Economics Peter and Helen Bing Department of Economics Susan Athey Professor in Undergraduate Professor of Economics, Senior Fellow, Hoover Education, Emeritus Economics of Technology Institution Professor of Law, Emeritus Professor Stanford University Stanford University Graduate School of Business David Brady John Cogan Stanford University Bowen H. & Janice Arthur Leonard and Shirley Ely Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution Kyle Bagwell McCoy Professor in Leadership Donald L. Lucas Endowed Values Stanford University Professor in Economics Political Science Department Department of Economics Deputy Director and Davies Paul A. David Family Senior Fellow, Hoover Professor Emeritus (and by Stanford University Institution courtesy, Professor of History) Department of Economics B. Douglas Bernheim Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Edward Ames Edmonds Institute Stanford University Professor of Economics Chair Stanford University Department of Economics Stanford University Dave Donaldson Ronald J. Gilson Joe Grundfest Associate Professor Charles J. Meyers Professor of William A. Franke Professor of Department of Economics Law and Business Law and Business Law School Law School Stanford University Stanford University Stanford University Darrell Duffie Dean Witter Distinguished Judith Goldstein Stephen H. Haber Professor of Finance Janet M. Peck Professor of A.A. and Jeanne Welch Milligan Graduate School of Business International Communication Professor School of Humanities and Stanford University Kaye University Fellow Sciences Undergraduate Education Mark Duggan Professor Director of the Social Science The Wayne and Department of Political Science History Institute Jodi Cooperman Professor Peter and Helen Bing Senior Stanford University of Economics Fellow, Hoover Institution Department of Economics Lawrence H. Goulder Stanford University 37 Stanford University Shuzo Nishihara Professor of Environmental and Resource Eric Hanushek Pascaline Dupas Economics Paul and Jean Hanna Senior Associate Professor of Department of Economics Fellow, Hoover Institution Economics Kennedy Grossman Fellow Stanford University Department of Economics Department of Human Biology Stanford University Caroline Hoxby Stanford University Scott and Donya Bommer Liran Einav Avner Greif Professor in Economics Professor Bowman Family Professor in Department of Economics Department of Economics the Humanities and Sciences Senior Fellow, Hoover Stanford University Department of Economics Institution Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Stanford University Victor Fuchs Institute Henry J. Kaiser, Jr. Professor of Economics and of Health Stanford University Research and Policy, Emeritus Stanford University Gerhard Casper Gregory Rosston

38

Jay Bhattacharya Ronald McKinnon Pete Klenow Edward Lazear Paul Milgrom Professor of Economics Jack Steele Parker Professor of Shirley and Leonard Ely Department of Economics Human Resources Management Professor of Humanities and Gordon and Betty Moore Senior and Economics Sciences Fellow, SIEPR Graduate School of Business Department of Economics Stanford University Morris Arnold Cox Senior Professor (by courtesy) Fellow, Hoover Institution Graduate School of Business Charles Kolstad Stanford University Stanford University Senior Fellow SIEPR and Precourt Institute for Mark Lemley N. Grant Miller Energy William H. Neukom Professor of Director, Stanford Center for Professor of Economics (by Law International Development courtesy) Law School Associate Professor Department of Economics Stanford University School of Medicine Stanford University Stanford University Jonathan Levin Stephen D. Krasner Professor Roger G. Noll Graham H. Stuart Professor of Department of Economics Professor, Emeritus International Relations Professor (by courtesy) Department of Economics Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Graduate School of Business Professor (by courtesy) 39 Institute and Hoover Institution Stanford University Department of Political Science Deputy Director, Freeman Professor (by courtesy) Spogli Institute Susanna Loeb Graduate School of Business Stanford University Professor, School of Education Stanford University Stanford University Anne O. Krueger Bruce Owen Herald L. and Caroline Ritch Thomas E. MaCurdy Morris M. Doyle Centennial Emeritus Professor of Science Professor Professor in Public Policy and Humanities Department of Economics (Emeritus) Department of Economics Senior Fellow, Hoover Stanford University Stanford University Institution Stanford University Professor of International Economics Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies The John Hopkins University John H. Pencavel Donald John Roberts John B. Shoven The Pauline K. Levin-Robert L. John H. Scully Professor Trione Director of SIEPR Levin and Pauline C. Levin- of Economics, Strategic Charles R. Schwab Professor of Abraham Levin Professor in Management and International Economics the School of Humanities and Business (Emeritus) Department of Economics Sciences Graduate School of Business Buzz and Barbara McCoy Department of Economics Professor (by courtesy) Senior Fellow, Hoover Stanford University Department of Economics Institution Stanford University Luigi Pistaferri Stanford University Professor Gregory Rosston James L. Sweeney Department of Economics Deputy Director Professor Ralph Landau Senior Fellow in SIEPR Department of Management Economic Growth, SIEPR Director Science and Engineering Stanford University Public Policy Program Director of the Precourt Energy Professor (by courtesy), Efficiency Center A. Mitchell Polinsky Economics Senior Fellow (by courtesy), Josephine Scott Crocker Stanford University Hoover Institution Professor of Law and Economics Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Director, John M. Olin Program Alvin Roth 40 Institute and Woods Institute for in Law and Economics Craig and Susan McCaw the Environment Law School Professor of Economics Stanford University Professor (by courtesy) Department of Economics Department of Economics Stanford University John B. Taylor Stanford University Mary and Robert Raymond Scott Rozelle Professor of Economics Joshua Rauh Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Department of Economics Professor of Finance Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute George P. Shultz Senior Graduate School of Business Stanford University Fellow in Economics, Hoover Stanford University Institution Stanford University

Michael Tomz Professor Department of Political Science Stanford University Barry Weingast Ward C. Krebs Family Professor Department of Political Science Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution Professor (by courtesy) Department of Economics Stanford University

Frank Wolak Holbrook Working Professor of Commodity Price Studies Department of Economics Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute Stanford University

Gavin Wright William Robertson Coe Professor Pascaline Dupas talks with Jessica Leino and Grant Miller of American Economic History Department of Economics 41 Stanford University

Timothy Bresnahan Advisory Board

Chair Tad N. Taube Steve Ballmer Chairman John A. Gunn Mary G. F. Bitterman Taube Philanthropies Former Chairman and CEO President Dodge & Cox Investment Honorary Consul of the The Bernard Osher Foundation Managers Republic of Poland Susan L. Bostrom Vice Chair of the Board Members Former Executive Vice Stanford Hospital Henry J. Aaron President Honorary Chair Bruce and Virginia MacLaury Cisco Systems, Inc. Senior Fellow George P. Shultz Datong Chen The Brookings Institution Distinguished Fellow Co-Founder & Managing Hoover Institution Laura K. Arrillaga-Andreessen Partner Founder/President West Summit Capital 42 Chair Emeriti Laura Arrillaga-Andreessen Winston H. Chen Wallace R. Hawley Foundation Chairman Founder Founder & Chairman Emeritus Paramitas Foundation InterWest Partners SV2 Jonathan Coslet Donald L. Lucas Founder & Chairman Senior Partner & Chief Private Venture Capitalist Stanford Center on Philanthropy Investment Officer Bowen H. “Buzz” McCoy and Civil Society (PACS) Texas Pacific Group

William J. Perry Orley C. Ashenfelter William H. Davidow Michael and Barbara Berberian Joseph Douglas Green 1895 Founder and General Partner Professor (Emeritus) Professor of Economics Mohr, Davidow Ventures Princeton University Freeman Spogli Institute for Feng Deng International Studies Elizabeth E. Bailey Founding General Partner School of Engineering Professor Emeritus of Business Northern Light Venture Capital Stanford University and Public Policy University of Pennsylvania Winston Chen John Thompson Susan McCaw

Guy Dietrich Noosheen Hashemi Richard B. Kapnick Advanced Leadership Fellow President and Co-Founder Partner Harvard University The HAND Foundation Katten & Temple LLP

Managing Partner Robert B. Hellman, Jr. Harry Kellogg Dietrich Capital Partners CEO & Managing Director Vice-Chairman Emeritus American Infrastructure MLP Silicon Valley Bank Dixon R. Doll Fund Co-Founder & General Partner John B. Kleinheinz 43 DCM Walter Hewlett President Consulting Professor of Music Kleinheinz Capital Partners, Inc. William C. Edwards Stanford University Partner Sue Koffel Edwards Partners Hilary Hoynes Managing Partner Haas Distinguished Chair of CMF Partners John Freidenrich Economic Disparities Regis Management Company, LLC Steven W. Kohlhagen Professor of Economics and Former Head of Fixed Income Frederick L. A. Grauer Public Policy Division Chairman UC Berkeley Wachovia Bank Purfresh, Inc. Benny T. Hu Former Professor Patrick W. Gross Chairman Haas School of Business Chairman CDIB Bioscience Venture UC Berkeley The Lovell Group Management, Inc.

Blake R. Grossman Franklin P. Johnson, Jr. Managing Partner Founder CHJ Capital Management, LLC Asset Management Company Barnaby J. Levin Christopher S. Lynch George E. McCown Managing Director, Partner Director Operating Director HighTower Advisors, LLC AIG American Infrastructure MLP Chief Investment Officer Non-Executive Chairman Fund Levin & Lyon Wealth Management Freddie Mac Burton J. McMurtry Dan’l Lewin Independent Consultant Retired Venture Capitalist Corporate Vice President, Eff W. Martin Anthony Meier Technology and Civic Founding Partner General Partner Engagement Anthos Capital The Meier Group Microsoft Michael G. McCaffery Thomas C. Melzer James Liang Co-Founder & Chairman of Managing Director Co-Founder, Chairman of the the Board RiverVest Venture Partners Board, and Chief Executive Makena Capital Management, LLC Officer Gordon E. Moore Ctrip.com International, Ltd. Susan R. McCaw Chairman Emeritus of the President Board John P. Lipsky 44 COM Investments Intel Corporation Senior Fellow Member The Paul H. Nitze School for Jeff Morgan Stanford University Board Advanced International Studies Vice President & Founder of Trustees Johns Hopkins University Global Heritage Fund

Sue Koffel Henry Aaron Condoleezza Rice Robert B. Okun Condoleezza Rice Edward C. Schultz III Senior Partner & Chief Denning Professor Executive Vice President, Investment Officer Center for Global Business and Northern California Market Oak Hill Advisors, L.P. the Economy, Stanford Graduate President & Head of School of Business Technology Lending Ken Olivier Chairman Emeritus Thomas and Barbara OneWest Bank Stephenson Senior Fellow on Dodge & Cox, Investment Charles R. Schwab Public Policy Managers Chairman of the Board Hoover Institution Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. James Poterba Stanford University President and CEO 66th US Secretary of State Eugene B. Shanks, Jr. National Bureau of Economic Director Research Jesse Rogers Freddie Mac, ACE Ltd. Mitsui Professor of Economics Co-Founder & Managing John F. Sandy Smith MIT Director Altamont Capital Partners Senior Partner Kanwal Rekhi Womble Carlyle Sandridge & Rice, Managing Director Eric Schmidt LLP 45 Inventus Capital Partners Executive Chairman Google Thomas F. Stephenson Partner Sequoia Capital

John T. Thompson Vice-Chairman, Global CEO & Board Practice Heidrick & Struggles

David Topper Operating Partner General Atlantic

Victor Trione Chairman of the Board Luther Burbank Savings

Mark A. Wolfson Pitch Johnson Dixon Doll Managing Partner Jasper Ridge Partners

As of 12/3/2014 JOHN A. AND CYNTHIA FRY GUNN BUILDING | 366 GALVEZ STREET | STANFORD, CA 94305-6015 SIEPR.STANFORD.EDU