A N N U A L R E P O R T

2014 – 2015 SIEPR’s Mission The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research supports research, trains undergraduate and graduate students, and shares nonpartisan scholarship that will lead to better economic policies in the United States and abroad. Table of Contents

From the Director 2

New Faculty 4

Policy Impact 6

Young Scholars Program 8

Student Support 9

Events and Conferences 14

Policy Briefs 18

Income and Expenditures 19

Research Centers and Programs 20

Development 24

Donors 28

Visitors 32

Senior Fellows 34

Steering Committee 38

Advisory Board 39

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 1 From the Director

Dear Friends, My first six months as the Trione Director of the undergraduates working as research assistants with Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research have been SIEPR scholars. We have also organized a number of marked with significant activity. We added more than a policy forums that were geared toward students, including dozen faculty to our Senior Fellow ranks in the Fall. They one on innovation challenges for the next presidential include Professors from the Department of Economics administration and others that focused on the “app along with the schools of Business, Education, Law, and economy” and the evolution of finance. Medicine. We also welcomed 11 Assistant Professors as We have hosted some of the most important and Faculty Fellows. These additions mean SIEPR’s arsenal of influential leaders in government and business who have expertise on economic policy includes more shared with us their insights on economic than 80 faculty from all seven Stanford schools policy and many other issues. Our Economic and from four major institutes on campus. Summit last March featured Ben Bernanke, Our faculty research has made its way into Ursula Burns, and Larry Summers. The leading academic journals, major media outlets, Federal Reserve’s Lael Brainard, Citigroup and the hands of policymakers. Several of my Vice Chair (and former White House budget colleagues and I spent time in Washington, chief) Peter Orszag, Columbia Business School D.C., this past year testifying before Congress. Dean (and former CEA Chair) Glenn Hubbard, We have expanded our communications and SIEPR Board member Charles Schwab efforts with a new website, a social media are among a few of those who headlined our presence and a fresh focus on distilling and regular Associates Meetings. disseminating the research we are doing so We held another very successful High that it can have an even bigger impact. School Teachers Conference in August that brought SIEPR played a major role in recruiting faculty to together dozens of educators from the Bay Area and beyond Stanford this past year. This includes Raj Chetty, who to learn from our faculty and discuss with one another arrived recently from Harvard, and Matthew Gentzkow, how to improve the instruction of economics to high who comes to us from the University of Chicago. Both are school students. Our State of the West Symposium, jointly SIEPR Senior Fellows and Professors in the Department organized with the Bill Lane Center for the American West, of Economics. Raj and Matt both received the John Bates was outstanding. Speakers from industry, academia, and Clark Medal, which is awarded annually to the American business discussed the challenging energy and water issues economist younger than 40 who has made the most confronting western states. And our Young Associates significant contributions to economics. program, through which recent Stanford graduates remain Our programs and opportunities for both graduate connected with SIEPR, continues to thrive. and undergraduate students are growing. We supported Through our Young Scholars program, we host many 70 graduate students during the 2014-15 academic year of the world’s most talented academics still early in their through fellowships and research assistant positions. We careers and doing economic policy research. We currently are implementing a new SIEPR program that supports have four post-doctoral scholars and an additional five

2 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR Whether we are exploring the impacts of monetary policy, the volatility of the Chinese economy, or the causes disseminate their research to many of the leading experts and consequences of inequality, from around the world. As the United States and the rest of the world grapple SIEPR scholars are building with formidable economic challenges, the work we are doing at SIEPR is more important than ever. Whether we are exploring the impacts of monetary policy, the volatility an arsenal of research for of the Chinese economy, or the causes and consequences of inequality, SIEPR scholars are building an arsenal of policymakers to draw from research for policymakers to draw from when designing policies that ultimately affect millions of people. As the when designing policies that ultimately presidential race unfolds in the months ahead, government officials, the media, and business leaders can look to SIEPR for rigorous, nonpartisan research on many of the most affect millions of people. important policy issues. I am very fortunate to have joined SIEPR at such a high point for the institution. Thanks to the generosity of our supporters, the scholarship by our faculty and students, First Sabbatical visitors at SIEPR, with a broad range of and the dedication and efficiency of our staff, the past expertise including tax policy, international trade, and year was our best year ever. I want to especially thank my health care policy. This program has helped to make SIEPR predecessor, John Shoven, and our Advisory Board Chair, the go-to place among the most productive and influential John Gunn, for their friendship and guidance during my economists in the world. We also hosted distinguished first six months leading SIEPR. And I am deeply grateful visitors from Harvard, MIT, Berkeley, and many other for the advice and welcome from our supporters, faculty, institutions who frequently collaborate with our scholars staff, and students. Our continued work together will help and advise our students. position SIEPR to make even greater contributions to We organized several academic conferences during improved economic policy in the U.S. and throughout the the past year. This past Fall, our Center for International world. Development (SCID) hosted more than 80 scholars from around the world for a two-day conference on Firms, Trade, Best regards, and Development. At our Working Longer conference, SIEPR scholars and distinguished visitors presented research on the demographic challenges in the U.S. and in China along with the employment effects of employer and Mark Duggan government responses to these changes. These conferences The Trione Director of SIEPR allow our faculty and students to learn from and The Wayne and Jodi Cooperman Professor of Economics

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 3 New Faculty

Our scholars are our most important resource at SIEPR. Raj Chetty is a Professor of economics at We added 13 Senior Fellows drawing from across the Stanford and a Senior Fellow at SIEPR. Stanford campus this year. We also created a new class He is also co-director of the Public of “Faculty Fellows” composed of 11 Assistant Professors Economics group at the National Bureau working on policy relevant economic research. And we of Economic Research. continue to draw on the expertise of our nine Senior Named one of the top economists Fellow Emeriti. in the world by The New York Times and The Economist, Chetty’s research combines empirical evidence and theory Senior Fellows Appointed This Past Year to inform the design of more effective government policies. His work on tax policy, unemployment, education, and Ran Abramitzky, Department of Economics social mobility has been widely cited in media outlets and Laurence Baker, Stanford School of Medicine congressional testimony. Chetty received his doctorate from Harvard in 2003 Kate Bundorf, Stanford School of Medicine when he was 23 and became a professor at the University of Raj Chetty, Department of Economics California, Berkeley. He returned to Harvard in 2009 as one of the youngest tenured professors in Harvard’s history and Thomas Dee, Graduate School of Education then arrived at Stanford in 2015. Matthew Gentzkow, Department of Economics Chetty is a recipient of a MacArthur “genius” Fellowship and is one of the youngest recipients of the John Bates Guido Imbens, Stanford Graduate School of Business Clark medal, given by the American Economic Association Dan Kessler, Stanford Graduate School of Business, to the best American economist younger than 40. Stanford Law School Matthew Gentzkow is a Professor of Alison Morantz, Stanford Law School economics at Stanford and a Senior Fellow Paul Oyer, Stanford Graduate School of Business at SIEPR. He studies empirical industrial organization and political economy, with a Monika Piazzesi, Department of Economics specific focus on media industries. Martin Schneider, Department of Economics He earned his bachelor’s degree in 1997, his master’s degree in 2002 and his doctorate in 2004 – Alan Sykes, Stanford Law School all from Harvard. He received the 2014 John Bates Clark Medal, given by the American Economic Association to the American See our full list of Senior Fellows on page 34. economist younger than 40 who has made the most significant contribution to economic thought and knowledge.

4 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Petra Persson is an Assistant Professor Sciences and the Econometric Society. He is the recipient of economics at Stanford and a Faculty of the Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship, several National Fellow at SIEPR. She is also a research Science Foundation grants for research on media, and a affiliate of the Centre for Economic Faculty Excellence Award for teaching. Policy Research. Persson is an applied micro Faculty Fellows joining SIEPR economist and her work lies in the fields of public and labor economics. She received her doctorate in economics Marshall Burke, Department of Earth Systems Science from Columbia University in 2013 after spending a year as Gabriel Carroll, Department of Economics predoctoral fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Women and Public Policy Program. Arun Chandrasekhar, Department of Economics Persson was a postdoctoral fellow at SIEPR during Rebecca Diamond, Stanford Graduate School of Business the 2013-2014 academic year and joined the economics department in July 2014. Pablo Kurlat, Department of Economics Bradley Larsen, Department of Economics Maria Polyakova is an Assistant Professor of health research and policy at Kalina Manova, Department of Economics the Stanford School of Medicine and a Melanie Morten, Department of Economics Faculty Fellow at SIEPR. Her research investigates questions Petra Persson, Department of Economics surrounding the role of government in Maria Polyakova, Department of Health Research and Policy the design and financing of health insurance systems. She is especially interested in the relationships between public Florian Scheuer, Department of Economics policies and individuals’ decision-making in health care and health insurance, as well as in the risk protection and re- distributive aspects of health insurance systems. Polyakova won the 2015 Ernst-Meyer Prize, which recognizes original research about risk and health insurance economics. She also received the John Heinz Dissertation Award from the National Academy of Social Insurance in 2015, and has received several grants to fund her research on health care. She earned her bachelor’s degree at Yale in 2008 and received her doctorate from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2014.

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 5 Policy Impact

Our faculty members have an immediate impact and influence in public debates and policymaking. With op-eds, congressional testimony and mentions in major media outlets, SIEPR affiliates are engaged and weighing in on some of the most pressing economic issues in the U.S. and around the world. Here are some examples from the past year:

In November, Mark Duggan testified before the Joint Greg Rosston, SIEPR’s deputy director, co-wrote an op- Economic Committee on the Social Security Disability ed in The Hill about the FCC’s rural universal service Insurance program. It was the third time that Duggan, program. SIEPR’s Trione Director, spoke to Congress about the program. Duggan was also cited several times in Senior Fellow John Cochrane wrote an op-ed in The Wall congressional testimony about the possible impacts of two Street Journal about tax reform. large mergers in the health insurance industry that are under consideration. Senior Fellow Jeremy Bulow co-authored an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal about the effects of austerity SIEPR Senior Fellow Michael Boskin was on Capitol Hill measures on Greek’s economy. in February to deliver testimony on tax reform. He also wrote a piece for The Guardian about the Trans-Pacific The New York Times published a piece that Senior Fellow Partnership. Eric Hanushek wrote about the benefits of evaluating teacher performance and of rewarding the best teachers Senior Fellow John Taylor testified seven times before financially. various congressional committees on topics ranging from the Greek economic crisis and bankruptcy reform to fiscal Senior Fellow Dan Kessler wrote an op-ed in The Wall consolidation strategy and requirements for the fed to Street Journal about the successes and failures of describe its strategy. the Affordable Care Act more than five years after its enactment.

Mark Duggan Greg Rosston Pascaline Dupas Jeremy Bulow

6 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR Senior Fellow Thomas MaCurdy wrote an op-ed in The John Taylor sat down for a Q&A with USA Today to make Wall Street Journal about the effects of increasing the the case for higher interest rates. minimum wage. The Wall Street Journal ran an op-ed by Edward Lazear Senior Fellow Josh Rauh co-authored an op-ed in The Wall that featured the SIEPR senior fellow’s thoughts about how Street Journal about the fiscal effects of retiree health the safeguards in the Dodd-Frank legislation are based on a plans on local governments. misdiagnosis of what led to the 2008 economic crisis.

Senior Fellow Al Roth’s book, “Who Gets What – and Why,” Senior Fellow Charles Kolstad co-authored a piece was featured in The Wall Street Journal. He also authored in Science discussing opportunities for reform at the an op-ed in The New York Times about how to make the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. college admissions process more efficient. The Times of India noted Senior Fellow Grant Miller’s The New York Times featured research by Caroline Hoxby appointment to the Global Advisory Board at the Kolkata about the barriers that high-achieving, low-income students Public Health Institute. Miller is also the Director of the face in landing a spot at elite colleges and universities. SIEPR’s Center for International Development (SCID).

Forbes and several other publications featured research Le Monde and the French think tank Cercle des by Senior Fellow Nick Bloom showing that employees who Economistes awarded Senior Fellow Pascaline Dupas the work at home are more productive than their peers who go Best Young French Economist Prize. to the office. Bloom’s research on pay inequality between U.S. firms was also the focus of an article inThe Wall Street Journal.

Dan Kessler Caroline Hoxby John Taylor John Cochrane

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 7 Young Scholars Program

SIEPR’s Young Scholars program is changing the way First Sabbaticals 2014–2015 some of the most promising economists start their careers Mitsuru Igami by supporting their work on policy-relevant research Visiting Assistant Professor, SIEPR needed to strengthen domestic and global economies. Assistant Professor, Yale University We had seven Young Scholars in residence in 2014-15 and supported them with about $1.1 million in funding. Cosmin Ilut We believe the investment is SIEPR’s most important Visiting Assistant Professor, SIEPR Michael Best contribution toward improving economic policy in the long Assistant Professor, Duke University run. The quality of those in our Young Scholars program is Myrto Kalouptsidi demonstrated by the fact that Stanford has hired three of Visiting Assistant Professor, SIEPR them to join the tenure-track faculty here. Assistant Professor, Princeton University The Young Scholars Program is highly selective and is geared towards researchers in the early stages of their Marti Mestieri careers. It includes both Postdoctoral Scholars and First Visiting Assistant Professor, SIEPR Lorenzo Casaburi Sabbaticals (junior faculty taking the “first sabbatical” of Assistant Professor, Toulouse School their careers). of Economics The Postdoctoral Scholars Program allows new PhDs working on applied policy research to come to Stanford for SIEPR Postdoctoral Scholars one to two years to develop a productive research agenda before taking on administrative and teaching duties as an Michael Best assistant professor. 2014–2017 The First Sabbatical Program allows junior faculty Ph.D. from London School of Economics Orie Shelef to visit Stanford for one academic year while on leave Lorenzo Casaburi from another top institution. First Sabbaticals are also 2013–2016 free of teaching and administrative duties and actively Ph.D. from Harvard University participate in the Stanford economics community. Both of these programs allow Young Scholars ample opportunity Orie Shelef to interact and collaborate with Stanford faculty, leading 2013–2016 to rich and fruitful research partnerships and fresh and Ph.D. from University of California- innovative policy-relevant research. Berkeley Haas School of Business

8 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR Student Support

SIEPR and SCID supported a total of 70 graduate During the 2014-15 academic year, SIEPR supported 16 students during the last academic year through fellowships PhD candidates through fellowships with an approximate and research assistant positions. We also launched a new total of $475,000 funded by several endowed gifts. These program to support undergraduates working as research fellowships allow the PhD candidates on the job market to assistants with our faculty members. complete their research and travel for job seminars.

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 9 Student Support, continued

SIEPR Fellowships and Awards Kapnick Fellowship Program Recipients for 2014 - 2015 Yannelis Constantine – Asymmetric Information on Student Loans B.F. Haley and E.S. Shaw Fellowship Support for Economics Diego Perez – Analysis of Internal Costs of Sovereign Default Nicola Bianchi – General Equilibrium Effect of Educational Expansion

Chiara Farronato – Network Effects in Two-Sided Kohlhagen Fellowship Fund Platforms: A Model of User Participation Markus Baldauf – Essays on Modern Equity Markets Jeffrey K. Naecker – The Lives of Others: Predicting Donations Using Non-Choice Data The Leonard W. Ely and Shirley R. Ely Graduate Student Fund The Bradley Research Fellowship Program Man Lung Chan – Determinants of Intermediary Trade and Troy D. Smith – Performance Effects of Private Equity on Welfare Analysis: How Do Trade Intermediaries Facilitate Indian Firms Export Activity

Stephen (Teng) Sun – Bank Monitoring on Firm Akshaya Jha – Productive Inefficiencies in Coal-Fired Productivity, Reallocation, and the Macro Economy Power Plans

Ian J. Wright – Differential Effect of Current and Future Huiyu Li – Financing Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Uncertainty on Firm Decisions Growth

E. S. Shaw and B.F. Haley Fellowship for Economics Shultz Graduate Student Fellowship in Economic Policy Mohammed Akbarpour – Algorithmic Market Design Francisco Munoz – Governance Audits, Market Competition and Corruption Michael Dinerstein – Supply Response of Private Schools to Public Policies: Evidence from New York City’s Fair Cian Ruan – Impact of Different Competitive Market Student Funding Structures on the Kinds of Innovation Undertaken by Firms

10 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 11 12 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 13 Events and Conferences

September 2014 – December 2015

Associates Meeting Speakers Conferences, Lectures and Special Events Rick Levin, CEO of Coursera and former President of Yale Conference remembering SIEPR Senior Fellow Ronald University. October 2014 McKinnon. January 2015 Robert Pozen, former Chairman of MFS Investment SIEPR Policy Forum on The App Economy. January 2015 Management. November 2014 SIEPR Economic Summit. March 2015 Mark Duggan, SIEPR Director. December 2014 Annual SCID India Conference: Re-Igniting India’s Growth: Jason Furman, Chairman of the Council of Economic Perspectives from Business, Engineering, Medicine, and Advisers. February 2015 Economics. May 2015 Mervyn King, Former Governor of the Bank of England. SIEPR Policy Forum on The Evolution of Finance. April 2015 May 2015 David Wilcox, Director of the Division of Research and Twenty-Eighth SIEPR High School Teachers Conference. Statistics at the Federal Reserve Board. May 2015 August 2015 Michael Boskin, SIEPR Senior Fellow. June 2015 Celebration honoring outgoing SIEPR Director John Shoven. September 2015 Glenn Hubbard, Dean of Columbia University Graduate School of Business and Former Chair of the Council of Conference on Working Longer and Retirement. Economic Advisers. September, 2015 October 2015 Charles Schwab, Chairman of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. SCID Workshop on Health, Demography, and Aging in October 2015 China. October 2015 Peter Orszag, Citigroup Vice-Chair and Former Director of BoskinFest, celebrating Professor Michael Boskin’s Career the Office of Management and Budget.November 2015 and 70th birthday. October 2015 Lael Brainard, Governor of the Federal Reserve. Second annual SCID-IGC conference on ‘Firms, Trade, and December 2015 Development’, featuring keynote address by Esther Duflo. November 2015 Fifth Annual State of the West Symposium: Grappling With Water and Energy Issues in the West. November 2015 SIEPR Policy Forum on Powerful Tools: Innovation Challenges for the Next President. December 2015

14 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR Michael Boskin and John Lipsky at BoskinFest Lael Brainard Peter Orszag

John Shoven at his retirement dinner Mark Duggan

Glenn Hubbard David Crane India Conference attendees speak with Grant Miller

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 15 George Shultz and Condoleezza Rice Krishna Saraswat Governor Matt Mead

Charlie Kolstad, John Shoven, and Frank Wolak Mark Duggan

Jason Furman John Gunn and John Hennessy

16 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR State of the West panel Buzz McCoy and John Shoven

Bob Bessin, John Shoven, Jane Bessin and Vic Trione Nandan Nilekani, Arogyaswami Paulraj, and Ashish Goel

Larry Baer Christopher DiGiorgio Felicia Marcus

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 17 Policy Briefs

State Taxation and the Reallocation of Can International Trade Mitigate the Impacts Business Activity of Climate Change? Joshua Rauh Dave Donaldson December 2015 April 2015 What’s the Climate Worth? Is Private Equity Investment Good For Indian Companies? Marshall Burke Troy Smith November 2015 April 2015 When Interest Rates Go Up, What Will This Mean The End of Expensive Oil? For the Mortgage Market and the Wider Economy? Frank Wolak Michael Best March 2015 October 2015 Internal Migration and Social Safety Nets in India Life in the Slow Lane: The Rate of Growth of Potential Melanie Morten Output of the U.S. Economy March 2015 John Shoven Choice and Affordability in the ACA’s Health September 2015 Insurance Exchanges The Role of Exponential-Growth Bias and Present Bias Michael Dickstein in Retirement Savings February 2015 Gopi Shah Goda, Matthew Levy, Colleen Manchester, Net Neutrality and Title II of the Communications Act Aaron Sojourner, Joshua Tasoff Bruce Owen May 2015 Janury 2015

Stanford University • December 2015

SIEPR Stanford University • March 2015

Stanford University • November 2015 policy brief Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research on the web: http://siepr.stanford.edu SIEPR Stanford University • April 2015 SIEPR State Taxation and the Reallocation of policy brief Business Activity Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research on the web: http://siepr.stanford.edu policy briefBy Joshua Rauh Stanford University • April 2015

Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research on the web: http://siepr.stanford.edu A growing number of Electric and Aetna have both The End of Expensive Oil? SIEPR companies are moving their suggested they might leave About The Author headquarters or operations Connecticut in response to tax By Frank A. Wolak Joshua Rauh is a Senior from one state to another. One increases that were passed policy brief common — and accurate — this year. Fellow at SIEPR. He is also a What’s the Climate Worth? 1. The North American Shale 2. The Declining Role of OPEC storyline either blames the For all the discussion of this a Professor of Finance at the SIEPR Resource Bonanza The increase in North American AboutStanford The Author Institute for Economic Policy Research on the web: http://siepr.stanford.edu By Marshall Burke topic, the empirical research deserted state’s taxes for being Stanford Graduate School The shale oil and gas revolution oil production and decline in too high or applauds the lower on the sensitivity of corporate of Business, a Senior Fellow policy briefin the United States (U.S.) has led U.S. oil consumption have also Frank Wolak is the Holbrook Later this month, policymakers change might understate damages tax rate in the company’s activities to state taxation has to a more than 4 million barrels significantly reduced the share of Working Professor of at the Hoover Institution, from around the world will gather by a factor of five or more. From Aboutnew The location. Author been quite inconclusive. Policy per day increase in domestic oil global oil demand served by the Commodity Price Studies in Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research on the web: http://siepr.stanford.edu in Paris for a long-anticipated a policy perspective, our findings The narrative played out institutes even have difficulty and a Research Associate at the National OPEC countries. Recognizing this Can International Trade Mitigate the Impacts Marshall Burke is a production since 2008. Combined the Economics Department meeting to negotiate a new suggest that investments in when Toyota announced the agreeing on how to characterize Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). with an almost 1 million barrel per fact, Saudi Arabia, the largest OPEC and the Director of the emissions reductions today might Faculty Fellow at the producer, recently decided not to agreement addressing global move of its headquarters from the literature that has attempted He formerly taught at the University day increase from the Alberta tar Programof on Climate Energy and Change? climate change. The popular pay much higher dividends than Stanford Institute for reduce its production in response to California to Texas in 2014 to estimate the impact of state sands, the surge in North American SustainableBy Dave Development. Donaldson discourse and large amount of we had previously assumed. of Chicago’s Booth School of Business prices in the $50 to $40 per barrel Economicand Policy when Research, Mercedes Benz taxation on firm location and oil production has significantly Wolak’s recent research focuses on Figure 1 shows the main (2004–9)Is Private and the Kellogg SchoolEquity of Investment Good For range. One can make a strong media coverage around this event announced this year that it economic growth. Do taxes reduced the region’s demand for estimates of the relationship a Center Fellow at the regulation, design, and monitoring of suggest there is a lot at stake, and really affect firm location, or Management (2009–12). imported oil. Increased production case that Saudi Arabia concluded The warmer climates predicted own for the purpose of assessing between changes in temperature Centerwould on Food move Security from New Jersey energyby andclimatologists environmental portend markets. a grim From the overall macro-level impact of a commonly heard view is that Indian Companies? of shale gas in North America and that reducing its output would not About The Author and global economic output that to Georgia. Many mid-size are they a sideshow? And how Aprilfuture 1998 to for April many 2011, biological he was Chair systems, of the climate change on agricultural these negotiations could be one and the Environment, and Assistant Professor Rauh studies corporate the significantly lower dollar per increase the global price enough much action is really behind the By Troy Smith such as agricultural plant life, on markets. This is because, in a of our last real chances to save are currently being used in policy companies supposedly left to make this unilateral reduction Market Surveillance Committee (MSC) of the Dave Donaldson is an Professor of Earth System Science. He corporate statements? investment and financial structure, million British thermal unit (BTU) which human welfare depends. But globalized world, the impact of the planet from substantial harm. discussions. These estimates Illinois after a 2011 tax in output profitable. One plausible California Independent System Operator. In Associate Professor of received his BA in International Relations price of natural gas versus oil just how much will economic living micro-level shocks does not only constitute the so-called “damage increase. Gregory Blaise, head Recent findings by Xavier privateYes. equity Private and equityventure investors capital, and private equity investors take Unfortunately, things may be have caused a number of sectors reason is that Saudi Arabia inferred this capacity,standards he fall has as testified some plantsnumerous wilt times in depend on the average level of Economics at Stanford functions” that are embedded from Stanfordof the Illinois in 2003, Manufacturers’and his PhD in Giroud of MIT-Sloan and me the financial structure of pension funds that other OPEC countries would not 1 even more dire than previously choose to invest in the better advantage of companies by Aboutof the The U.S. Author economy to shift away at thea Federalhotter world? Energy InRegulatory a recent Commission paper these shocks, but also on their University and a Research in the main economic tools Agricultural and Resource Economics show that tax changes do in follow its lead in reducing output estimated, at least from an Association, stated that “the andcompanies their sponsors. in the He economy has published and stripping assets, milking cash, from consuming oil to natural gas. (FERC),with and Arnaud at various Costinot Committees (MIT) of and the dispersion over space. Associate at the National economic perspective. When currently used to inform climate only businesses that will benefit fact have substantial near-term Troy Smith is a PhD to the extent needed to achieve Cory Smith (MIT), we estimate that If climate change were to affect from Berkeley in 2014. His research numerousthen they journal help thesearticles companies and was and laying off workers. Others Consequently, China, rather than US Senate and House of Representatives on Bureau of Economic policy: the integrated assessment effects on firm decisions to student in the Department a jointly profitable (for all OPEC if farmers are able to change what all crops in all countries in a policymakers consider the focusesare on the understanding moving companies how changes to grow. While there is not a lot believe that private equity helps the United States, is now the world’s issues relating to market monitoring and Research. His research models (IAMs). Pioneered by the awarded the 2006 Brattle Prize and the members) global oil price increase. they grow in response to a change uniform manner, then world relative economic damages caused by a that will be helping many locate economic activity in of evidence of efficiency gains the companies that receive of Economics at Stanford Yale economist Bill Nordhaus, in environmental conditions affect a largest oil importer, purchasing regulatoryin their oversight comparative of energy advantages, markets. Until crop prices would be unlikely to concerns inter- and intra-national trade, warming planet, they often cite 2011 Smith-Breeden Prize for his research University. He researches A number of factors point to of my members move out of within the companies themselves, the investment by providing more than 7 million barrels per day Decemberthen the 2013, overall Wolak impact served asof aclimate member change substantially and there IAMs are simple models of how range of social and economic outcomes, stable or even higher output levels with a particular focus on developing estimates that an increase of 4 this particular state.” General continued on inside... papersthe reallocation in the Journal of of resources Finance. from cash, improving management productivityfrom the inglobal environments market. Figure 1 change on agricultural output will would be little incentive for farmers the economy and the climate from the OPEC countries. Most of the Emissions Market Advisory Committee economies. He holds editorial positions degrees Celsius by 2100 will cost and on understanding the causes and where it is difficult to be small. Moreover, because of the to adjust which crops they grow, system interact. They specify a worse-performing companies to or governance, or transferring shows domestic production of oil (EMAC) for California’s market for greenhouse the world 4 percent of its gross OPEC countries are currently small share of agriculture in total or for countries to adjust which at the American Economic Review, the damage function — an assumed consequences of rural productivity better-performing companies helps technology. What has been less measurein December and how ofthe 2014 approaching domestic product (GDP). experiencing massive fiscal shortfalls gas emissionsGDP, the allowances.expected impact This committee on global crops they import and export.2 By Journal of Economic Literature, the Journal relationship of how economic improvements. He has authored over 20 the overall economy to become well explored is whether private productivitythe historical of organizations high of slightly impacts more the It turns out that prediction because of low oil prices. The advisedGDP the is Californiaconsiderably Air Resources smaller. Board contrast, if climate change were to of International Economics, the Quarterly output responds to changes in equity helps companies primarily marketsthan in10 which million they barrels operate. per His day current in might be too low. In a new study published papers, which have appeared more efficient. desire of these countries to avoid on the designOur estimates and monitoring draw onof thea large state’s have a differential effect on crop Journal of Economics and the Review of temperature — and then derive through helping them to expand researchNovember focuses of on 1970. business in developing body of work by crop scientists, yields both within and between I co-authored with Sol Hsiang Private equity investment in cap-and-trade market for greenhouse gas Economic Studies. Prior to joining Stanford 18 in both economics and science journals, STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICwhich has provided POLICY a rich countries, thenRESEARCH adjustments through | SIEPR optimal decisions about how developing countries is growing and grow bigger or whether it is countries by examining the effects of private and Ted Miguel of Berkeley including Science, PNAS, the Review of continued on inside... emissionsunderstanding allowances. of the implications production and trade patterns in the Summer of 2014 Donaldson was an much to invest in mitigation more effective at helping firms equity investment on Indian firms and that was just published in the rapidly. As Figure 1 shows, could significantly dampen the Associate Professor of Economics at MIT. by studying how the economy Economics and Statistics, and the Economic of such climate change for crop journal Nature, we show that private equity in India has gone operate more efficiently. education in the United States by examining yields, crop by crop and location adverse consequences of climate existing estimates of the potential Journal, and which have been cited over from virtually nothing in the early Previous research on private the supply of private schooling. Before by location (IPCC, 2007; Chapter change. For instance, a country economic damages from climate continued on inside... 2,900 times. 1990s to more than $10 billion equity has focused on the U.S. beginning his PhD at Stanford, Troy worked 5). However, these micro-level predictions—one for each crop and today. It is also widespread, with and other developed countries. as an economic consultant at Charles 2 Under this scenario, relative crop prices could location—are of little use on their change if there were scale effects in production, investments in many different However, because of constraints River Associates in Boston, as a research or if the overall reduction in agricultural productivity were to change (via income effects industries including storage and to credit, labor, and product associate at Harvard Business School for from poorer farmers or substitution effects 1 “Evolving Comparative Advantage and the from a reduction in overall crop consumption) distribution, media, health care, markets, a large proportion the required first year MBA strategy course, Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural relative patterns of demand for each crop. Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields and software services. However, of family firms, and relatively and as a researcher at the Small Enterprise around the World,” forthcoming in the Journal of Political Economy. continued on inside... the effects of private equity worse management practices, the Finance Center in the Institute for Financial investment on the companies that effects of private equity may be Management and Research in Chennai, receive the investment and on the different in developing countries. India. larger economy are often disputed. Some believe that sophisticated continued on inside... Income and Expenditures

Sources of Income Expenditures September 1, 2014 – August 31, 2015 September 1, 2014 – August 31, 2015

Associates & Friends...... $5,379,004 Conferences...... $1,792,765 Corporations (Project Support)...... $551,970 Grad Students...... $1,892,335 Corporations (General Support)...... $571,245 Postdocs/First Sabbaticals...... $980,728 Foundations (General Support)...... $440,012 Faculty Research...... $4,362,179 Foundations (Sponsored Projects)...... $1,406,697 Administration...... $1,562,419 Government (Sponsored Projects)...... $1,480,605 Communications...... $942,755 University Research Projects...... $1,402,704 Development...... 992,561 Endowment...... $2,209,879 $12,525,742 University General...... $797,449 Miscellaneous...... $849,480

$15,089,045

University Development Conferences 14% 8% 14% Miscellaneous Associates Friends Communications Grad Students 6% 36% 8% Endowment 15% 15%

Government Foundations Corporations Administration Faculty Research Postdocs 10% 12% 7% 12% 35% 1st Sabbaticals 8%

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 19 Research Centers and Programs

SIEPR’s research centers and programs help the Institute convene scholars from across campus and support focused and thematic economic policy research. They host conferences, lectures and other events, and also manage and administer some of the major grants at SIEPR that come from foundations and government and academic agencies. Following are descriptions of our centers and a few of the programs and projects underway at SIEPR.

Stanford Center for International Development SCID continues to be a focal point connecting international policymakers with the Stanford and SIEPR The Stanford Center for International Development communities. For example, in June 2015 SCID welcomed (SCID) is directed by Grant Miller and seeks to advance the Finance Minister of India, and the annual India understanding of economic growth and development and conference brought business leaders and top Indian help inform public policies that make a real difference policymakers together for discussions on reigniting India’s in people’s lives. SCID researchers – including faculty, growth. The SCID China Program’s work is influential graduate students, and visiting scholars – explore such among Chinese decisionmakers and has made SIEPR an questions as the causes of economic growth in developing important destination for experts from Chinese academic economies, the effect of international trade on economic institutions, government agencies, and think tanks. wellbeing around the world, and the role of investments in education, health care, and infrastructure. Center for Public and Private Finance SCID now has more than 60 faculty affiliates from across the Stanford campus, including the Economics The Center for Public and Private Finance (CPPF), Department, the Political Science Department, the co-directed by Raj Chetty, Michael Boskin, and John Graduate School of Business, the School of Medicine, and Shoven, looks broadly at numerous macroeconomic and the Graduate School of Education. In the last year, SCID finance-oriented issues. The center is currently running developed a new academic visitors program to promote four programs: close exchange between Stanford faculty and students The Finance Program studies financial markets and and leading scholars from around the world. SCID has also capital investment in the United States, including the cost developed partnerships with other prominent research of capital, rates of return on different kinds of investments, and policy organizations, including the International and the effectiveness of corporate governance. Retirement, Growth Center. pensions, and mutual funds are major research focuses. SCID is also building student programs. The center Shoven runs the Working Longer and Retirement started a new graduate student fellowship program, Conference and the Pathways to Retirement and the Self- which has awarded fellowships to 20 students from across Employed project, both of which are funded by the Sloan the campus to support their research on international Foundation. economic development. SCID oversees undergraduate The Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Program programs where Stanford faculty introduce students to looks at big-picture questions regarding national field research in developing countries. economies, including growth, productivity, employment, interest rates, and inflation. Program scholars have

20 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 21 Research Centers and Programs, continued

developed new mathematical tools for measuring economic Bresnahan currently has a National Science Foundation activity. The program works closely with policymakers grant to examine the influence of market forces and other and program scholars have served in senior government factors on the success of entrepreneurs in the mobile apps positions. SIEPR Senior Fellow Nicholas Bloom runs the ecosystem. Economic Uncertainty and the Great Recession project The Regulatory Policy Program looks at how with a grant from the Sloan Foundation, and Chetty government regulation of business affects economies in operates two projects on intergenerational mobility in the the United States and around the world. Program research United States that are funded by Harvard. focuses especially on policy issues raised by government The Tax and Budget Policy Program investigates the oversight in telecommunications, energy, and the Internet, ways government tax and spending policies affect the including regulatory questions raised by development of economy. Public pensions and the federal budget are new technologies. special interests, and program scholars have examined ways to shore up Social Security finances. The program Stanford Environmental and Energy Policy has also raised awareness and explored policy responses Analysis Center to changing demographics in the United States and other The Stanford Environmental and Energy Policy Analysis countries. Center (SEEPAC) is co-directed by Lawrence Goulder and Pension Tracker, an online resource created by SIEPR Charles Kolstad. The center is a joint venture of SIEPR researcher Joe Nation, examines unfunded pension and the Precourt Institute for Energy at Stanford and uses liabilities in California’s cities, counties and special the tools of economics, other social sciences, and natural districts. John Shoven has also contributed to this project. science to examine the critical environmental and energy issues of the 21st Century. Center on Employment and Economic Growth Climate change is a central focus. SEEPAC researchers The Center on Employment and Economic Growth study the environmental policy decisions societies make, (CEEG) is directed by Timothy Bresnahan and studies including what energy sources to use, and how to foster the relationship between long-term economic growth, sustainable economic growth, preserve the diversity of the technological development, and innovation, focusing natural world, and balance regulatory and market-based on the transformation of the quality of life in a rapidly protection. SEEPAC connects basic science and policy changing world. CEEG researchers examine what this by investigating how environmental programs affect the progress means for businesses, how the nature of work is economy and the fabric of society. SEEPAC scholars work being redefined, and the impact on people in their roles closely with scientists, engineers, and policymakers to as employees and entrepreneurs. Center scholars take a come up with politically realistic, economically viable special interest in how public policy adjusts to emerging approaches to safeguarding the environment. Senior Fellow technical and economic trends. An important area of Charles Kolstad co-authored an article in Science this past study is the way intellectual property rules set the terms Fall that examined the impact of the Intergovernmental for commercializing inventions in the technology sector. Panel on Climate Change.

22 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR Health Economics Program Program on Market Design The Health Economics Program, directed by Jay The Program on Market Design promotes research into Bhattacharya, uses the tools of economic analysis to the structure and operation of different kinds of markets. explore how to make the U.S. and international health care It is co-directed by Paul Milgrom and Muriel Niederle. systems more efficient and better able to provide high- Market Design scholars have studied the mechanisms quality medicine to all. for distributing a wide array of resources, ranging from Health Economics works cooperatively with other electric power and slots on the radio spectrum to public Stanford programs, including the Center for Health Policy school assignments and jobs for doctors. Researchers look of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, at what makes markets efficient and how policymakers can to carry out interdisciplinary research aimed at designing help them function better. Program scholars have special more effective health policies in diverse domestic and expertise in two market systems: auctions, in which prices international settings. are set by competitive bidding; and matching markets, Health Economics scholars have examined how such as those for jobs and schools, in which two sides are the Affordable Care Act is affecting labor markets, brought together based on hard-to-measure factors such as retirement health plans, and existing workplace insurance quality and skill in addition to cost. Market Design scholars arrangements in the United States. Program researchers have served as advisors in setting up advanced auction have also studied the implications of aging populations and matching market operations that take advantage of around the world. For example, they have projected health emerging electronic technologies. care spending in Japan as the share of elderly in the In research funded by the National Science Foundation, population rises. Senior Fellow Paul Milgrom is investigating how the Bhattacharya, SIEPR Director Mark Duggan, and senior government can optimally carry out very-high-stakes- fellows Jonathan Levin and Liran Einav are currently auctions that can involve billions of dollars. working on projects sponsored by either the National Science Foundation or the Sloan Foundation.

Jay Timothy Lawrence Charles Paul Grant Muriel Bhattacharya Bresnahan Goulder Kolstad Milgrom Miller Niederle

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 23 Development

In the 2014–2015 fiscal year, the Stanford Institute for SIEPR welcomed ten new advisory board members Economic Policy Research raised a total of $7.0M in gifts, a between September 2014 and December 2015. Datong 23 percent increase from the previous year. This includes Chen, Gary Gauba, Noosheen Hashemi , Hilary Hoynes, $3.0M in restricted and $4.0M in unrestricted funds. SIEPR Yongshan Huang, Laura Ipsen, James Liang, Robert fundraising includes annual and major gifts. Sponsored Okun, Michael Rashes and Adam Shapiro accepted board projects are not included in this amount. In addition, we positions. Datong, Noosheen, Yongshan, and Adam have raised over $1.3M in endowed funds. The number of annual also been active SCID supporters. donors increased from 291 to 302, a 4 percent increase. As SCID continues to grow under Director Grant Miller. shown in the chart below, total giving to SIEPR more than A generous donor is funding SCID’s strategic planning doubled from 2008-09 to 2014-15. work that will articulate its vision and priorities for the FY14–15 included a single major gift of $1M. Excluding future. In January, SCID announced the Ronald McKinnon this $1M, annual fundraising increased 5.5 percent from Memorial Fellowship. This endowed fellowship honors FY13–14. SIEPR’s fundraising continues to provide the Professor Ronald I. McKinnon’s memory by funding resources necessary for growth at SIEPR and the Stanford outstanding undergraduate and graduate research in the Center for International Development (SCID), allowing areas of international economics, international finance and for the expansion of programs and research that fulfill economic development. Generous donors have honored our mission to provide sound policy analysis. The $1M Ron’s memory by donating to the fund. anonymous gift is for the continued funding of Visiting We actively raised endowed funds to honor John Scholars on China and SIEPR’s Young Scholars Program. Shoven’s 20-year tenure at SIEPR’s helm and established The John Shoven Young Scholars Fund. The fund will SIEPR Fundraising support the SIEPR Young Scholars program, a unique initiative that was a hallmark of John’s time as SIEPR ,000,000 Director. As of our fiscal year end, we collected $1.3M, ,000,000 and have commitments of an additional $1.4M. The ,000,000 $1.3 million in contributions for the John Shoven Young Scholars Fund during the past year is in addition to the 23 5,000,000 percent increase from 2013-14 to 2014-15 in SIEPR annual 4,000,000 fundraising. We look forward to ensuring the longevity of ,000,000 the Young Scholars program through this fund.

2,000,000

1,000,000

0 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY 0-0 0-10 10-11 11-12 12-1 1-14 14-15

24 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR John Shoven, Cynthia Gunn, and John Gunn William Perry Brad Kapnick

John Shoven, Karen McCown, and George McCown Vic Trione and George Shultz

Shirley Ely and John Shoven Hillary Hoynes Ken Oliver

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 25 Development, continued

We are pleased to announce the establishment of the The 2015 SIEPR Economic Summit was our most endowed Yvette Gurley Research Scholar Fund that will popular event of FY14–15. SIEPR raised $470,000 from provide support to a new assistant professor at Stanford Summit sponsorships, table purchases, and ticket revenue. University working on economic policy each year. These Special thanks go to our 2015 Economic Summit Sponsors: funds will be helpful in the recruiting process to persuade Dodge & Cox Investment Managers, Heidrick & Struggles top young scholars to come to Stanford. We expect to and the Koret Foundation. We are also grateful for the receive the funds within the next year from her husband, support of our table purchasers: Bank of America, Bay City former economics professor, Jack Gurley. Capital, C.M. Capital Corporation, The Cynosure Group, As SIEPR’s Young Associates (YA) program entered Ernst & Young, and Silicon Valley Bank. We appreciate its third year, we bid farewell to two program alumni the in-kind donation from Cornerstone Research for the and welcomed one new YA, Peggy Moriarty. This unique Summit chartbook. The support from these firms ensures program aims to create a strong connection between SIEPR the continued success of this marquee event. and young alumni, helping to foster the next generation SIEPR has six different named funds to support of economists and SIEPR supporters. Feedback from the graduate student research, the majority of which go to first two cohorts of YA’s was positive and constructive, fifth- and sixth-year graduate students who are completing and Young Associates showed strong attendance at SIEPR their dissertations. We wish to thank our donors for events. We’d like to thank the program sponsors and supporting fellowships: participants entering the FY15–16 year: The Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation Sponsors Young Associates Leonard and Shirley Ely

Dixon Doll Wilson Bowen John and Yvette Gurley Pat Gross William Faulkner The Kapnick Family Foundation Blake Grossman Andrew Hung Steve and Gale Kohlhagen John Gunn Samir Junnarkar George P. Shultz Pitch Johnson Anjney Midha The generosity of past supporters and current donors Sue Koffel Eric Mitzenmacher enables SIEPR to deliver on its mission to address economic John Lipsky Peggy Moriarty challenges through scholarly research and discussions with policymakers and the business community. Eff Martin Lauren Seaver Charles Schwab Sam Shapiro Emily Tian Minh Dan Vuong

26 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR Sue Bostrom and Steve Mollenkopf Burt McMurtry David Topper

Sue Koffel John Freidenrich Ursula Burns, Pitch Johnson, and Larry Baer

Ari Nazem, Pitch Johnson, Noosheen Hashemi, and Cathie Johnson Dixon Doll Wally Hawley

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 27 Donors

Benefactors The Lucas Brothers Feng Deng Charles R. Schwab Foundation Anonymous (2) Blake R. Grossman Adam Shapiro/ Vijaya & Kumar Malavalli East Rock Capital The Annenberg Foundation John A. & Cynthia Barbara & Buzz McCoy Fry Gunn Thomas F. Stephenson Carol Baxter Deedee & Burt McMurtry Noosheen Hashemi, David Topper The Gordon & Mary Cain The HAND Foundation Foundation Betty & Gordon Moore The William and Flora Leadership Circle Datong Chen Ken Olivier & Hewlett Foundation Anonymous (1) Angela Nomellini Shirley Ross Davis Cathie & Pitch Johnson Paramitas Foundation/ Accenture LLP Feng Deng The Kapnick Family Winston Chen Kenneth Broad The Dixon & Carol Doll John Kleinheinz Kanwal S. Rekhi, Family Foundation CIT Inventus Capital Sue Koffel Shirley Ely Sonja & Bill Davidow Searle Freedom Trust Koret Foundation John A. & Cynthia Fry Steven Aaron Denning Charles R. Schwab James Liang Gunn The Dixon & Carol Doll Tad & Dianne Taube Susan & Craig McCaw Yvette & John Gurley Family Foundation Vic Trione Margaret McKinnon Wallace Hawley William Edwards Mark & Shelia Wolfson Deedee & Burt McMurtry The William and Flora Shirley Ely Hewlett Foundation Microsoft Corporation Director’s Circle Exxon Mobil Corporation Cathie & Pitch Johnson Robert B. Okun Anonymous (1) Forbes Marshall Ltd. The Kapnick Family Ken Olivier & Steve Ballmer Angela Nomellini Matthew Frank Neeru & Vinod Khosla The Lynde & Harry Bradley Paramitas Foundation/ Franklin Templeton Steve & Gale Kohlhagen Foundation Winston Chen Investments

Koret Foundation Datong Chen Michael Rashes GE

James Liang Jonathan Coslet Jesse Rogers Godrej Industries Limited

Donald L. Lucas David & Carla Crane Eric & Wendy Schmidt Wallace Hawley

28 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR Grace & Laurance Arell Foundation J. Taylor Crandall JPMorgan Private Bank Hoagland Bank of America Craves Family Foundation J. Scott Kaspick Benny T. Hu Bank of America Merrill Alan Crites Harry W. Kellogg, Jr. Christopher Lynch Lynch Global Rates & Katherine & David deWilde Gregory D. Kennedy Currencies Origination Makena Capital Christopher DiGiorgio Steve & Gale Kohlhagen Management LLC Bank of the West Susan Ford Dorsey & KPMG LLP Eff W. Martin Matthew Barger Michael Dorsey R. Brendan Leary Michael G. McCaffery Bruce & Lorna Basso Tim & Melissa Draper Barnaby Levin Barbara & Buzz McCoy Anne T. and Robert M. Bass Richard J. Elkus, Jr. David Lichtenger Bowen H. & Janice Emerson Collective Arthur McCoy Charitable A. George (Skip) Battle Hong Seh Lim Foundation Bay City Capital Ernst & Young, LLP John Lipsky & Charles Pohl & Foundation Farallon Capital Zsuzsanna Karasz Eve Niquette S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Management, LLC Andrew Ludwick Foundation Raycon Infrastructures John Freidenrich Karol Marcin (India) Pvt. Ltd. Tanya S. Beder Prabhu & Poonam Goel Karen & George McCown Charles R. Schwab BlackRock, Inc. Google, Inc. Anthony P. Meier Vic Trione John B. Boatwright Arthur Graham Georgianna A. & Mark & Sheila Wolfson Michael & Chris Boskin Robert Greeley Thomas C. Melzer

Alan & Judy Zafran Bridgewater Associates Patrick W. Gross Richard Mirabella

Investors Cadence Design Gurtin Fixed Income Betty & Gordon Moore Systems, Inc. Management James C. Morgan Anonymous (7) C. M. Capital Corporation Hall Capital Partners, LLC David T. Morgenthaler Aetos Alternatives Andy Chase Bob & Holly Hellman Management, LLC Richard Murawczyk & Leonard Collins Laurie & Robert Hodrick Laura Aryeh Murawczyk American Century Investments Cornerstone Research Kurt Jaggers Needham & Company, LLC

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 29 Donors, continued

Bill & Susan Oberndorf Gene Sykes G. Leonard Baker, Jr. & Dr. Marcy Elkind Foundation Mary Anne Nyburg Baker John T. Thompson William Faulkner Alan L. Olsen Dr. & Mrs. Mario Belotti Robert and Fenton Family Foundation Oracle Corporation Maryette Thompson Robert C. Bertelson John Fisher Robert & Marion Oster Three Bridge Wealth Wendell W. Birkhofer Norman Fogelsong Advisors Pacific Pension Institute Barbara W. Bishop Anda Gansca The Valley Fund John & Barbara Packard David Bizer Ned Gilhuly VISA, Inc. Prologis, Inc. Rick Blume H.A. Wagner Douglass Given Christopher Redlich, Jr. The Young Boozer Family Julianne & Scott Wagner Foundation Ken Goldman Ann & Kanwal Rekhi Danielle & Tom Walker Susan L. Bostrom Linda Graebner Condoleezza Rice Wells Fargo Private Bank Wilson Bowen Fred Grauer Karl & Elizabeth Ronn WestBridge Capital Sara & Michael Buckley Richard Gray Samsung Electronics Akiko Yamazaki & Jack & Casey Carsten Harry Hagey Sand Hill Global Jerry Yang Advisors LLC Cerus Corporation Mr. & Mrs. William Harding Matthew Zuck George Scalise Mike Child Steven J. Harrick

Myron Scholes Associates A. Crawford Cooley Bruce & Elizabeth Hart

Susan & Eugene Shanks Anonymous Michael Couch Heidrick & Struggles

A. Horton Shapiro Analysis Group, Inc. Les Denend Andrew Hung

Lindy Sherwood R. David Andrews Kenneth Dewey Joel Hyatt

Silicon Valley Bank Arnof Family Foundation Joel Dickson Laura Ipsen

John F. Sandy Smith David & Martha Arscott Jerry Down Samir Junnarkar

Sam Srinivasan BNY Mellon William H. & Keare/Hodge Family Wealth Management Phyllis C. Draper Foundation Stanford Federal Credit Union Elizabeth Bailey Donna L. Dubinsky Scott Kepner

30 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR Donors, continued

John E. Kerrigan, Jr. Michael G. Rantz Lorraine S. Fox Tom and Elisa Simmons John Kispert Scott Rash Matt Garlinghouse Nicola Spence Lamoreaux Capital Janice G. Rosse William J. Hagenah Steven Stein Management LLC Edward Schultz Ying He James C. Van Horne Kurt A. Latta Lauren Seaver Larry N. Horton Walden International Bryce Lee Samuel Robert Shapiro Bob Huret Morgan W. White Legacy Venture George P. Shultz James P. King Peter & Lynn Wendell Amanda Levin William Robert Silver Gail & Fred Kittler Dan’l Lewin Robert Simon Carol Kornfeld Benefactor Patrick C. Lin Thomas K. Stroud Douglas Levick $500K+ Lifetime Tom Lockard Contribution Emily Tian Keith R. Lobo Richard A. Magnuson Director’s Circle William H. Tyler Brian Evans Mariscal $50K+ Annual Contribution Susan Meaney David Wah George Marotta Leadership Circle Mary Meeker $20K+ Annual Contribution Minh Dan Vuong Sumir Meghani Anjney Midha Investors Lorraine Monick Friends $10K+ Annual Contribution Karl O. Mills Missy & Jeff Morris Anonymous (2) Associates Eric Mitzenmacher $5K+ Annual Contribution Rosemary & William Henry Aaron Joel R. Mogy Nichols Friends Orley Ashenfelter Up to $5K Annual Steven Monosson PEER Ventures, LCC Contribution Brian Avery Diane Morris William J. Perry August 2015 Jane Beule John O’Donnell James Poterba Ronald Bigelow Douglas & Emilie Ogden Gregory L. Rosston Mary G. F. Bitterman Paul R. Perez Bernard Rubin John Brew Lynn Anderson Poole Jay Siegel Bruce Cozadd

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 31 Visitors

SIEPR Marshall Burke Ariel Pakes September 2014 – June 2015 January – June 2015 Assistant Professor Trione Visiting Professor, SIEPR and Economics Environmental Earth System Science Thomas Professor of Economics Stanford University Harvard University

Duncan Gilchrist Theodore Papageorgiou May 2014 – December 2014 January – February 2015 Exchange Scholar Assistant Professor Harvard University McGill University

Ove Granstrand Larry Summers July – September 2015 March 2015 Visiting Scholar Mark and Sheila Wolfson Distinguished Visiting Scholar Professor in Industrial Management and Economics SIEPR Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden President Emeritus Charles W. Eliot University Professor Yinghua He Harvard University January – June 2015 Visiting Scholar Robert J. Willis Junior Chair (Assistant Professor) January – March 2015 Toulouse School of Economics, France Professor of Economics University of Michigan Sam Lee September 2014 – June 2015 Arvids Ziedonis Assistant Professor of Finance Visiting Scholar New York University

John Mayo February 2015 Professor of Economics Georgetown University

Chiaki Moriguchi September 2014 – May 2015 Professor Hitotsubashi University Enrico Moretti Larry Summers

32 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR Stanford Center for International Development Treb Allen Robin Burgess March 2015 July 2015 Assistant Professor of Economics, Northwestern University Professor of Economics, LSE

Nava Ashraf Chang-Tai Hsieh November 2014 December 2014 Associate Professor in the Negotiations, Organizations, and Professor of Economics, Booth School of Business, Markets Unit, Harvard Business School University of Chicago

David Atkin Victor Lavy February 2015 February 2015 Assistant Professor of Economics, University of California, Professor of Economics, Warwick University Los Angeles Rocco Macchiavello Chong-En Bai August 2015 July 2015 Assistant Professor of Economics, Warwick University Mansfield Freeman Chair Professor, Associate Dean, and David McKenzie Chairman of the Economics Department in the School of April 2015 Economics and Management of Tsinghua University Lead Economist, Development Research Group, World Bank Oriana Bandiera Steve Redding March 2015 October 2014 Professor of Economics, London School of Business Professor in Economics, Department of Economics, Hoyt Bleakley Jr. Princeton University May 2015 Sandra Sequeira Associate Professor of Economics, Booth School of September 2014 Business, University of Chicago Assistant Professor School of Government, Harvard University London School of Economics Leah Boustan Bob Staiger April 2015 December 2014 Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, Stockwell Professor of Economics, University of Wisconsin Los Angeles David Yanizaga-Drott Paco Buera May 2015 May 2015 Associate Professor of Public Policy, John F. Kennedy Assistant Professor of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 33 Senior Fellows

Ran Abramitzky B. Douglas Bernheim David Brady Jeremy Bulow Associate Professor Edward Ames Edmonds Bowen H. & Janice Arthur Richard Stepp Professor of Department of Economics Professor of Economics McCoy Professor in Economics Stanford University Chair Leadership Values Graduate School of Business Department of Economics Political Science Department Professor (by courtesy) Susan Athey Stanford University Davies Family Senior Fellow Department of Economics Professor of Economics Hoover Institution Stanford University Graduate School of Business Jay Bhattacharya Professor of Political Stanford University Professor of Medicine Economics Kate Bundorf CHP/PCOR Core Faculty Graduate School of Business Associate Professor Kyle Bagwell Member Professor (by courtesy) Department of Health Research Donald L. Lucas Endowed School of Medicine Department of Political Science and Policy Professor in Economics Stanford University Senior Fellow Associate professor (by Department of Economics FSI courtesy) Stanford University Nicholas Bloom Stanford University Political Economics at the Professor of Economics Graduate School of Business Laurence C. Baker Department of Economics Timothy Bresnahan Stanford University Professor Professor (by courtesy) Landau Professor in Department of Health Research Graduate School of Business Technology and the Economy Gerhard Casper and Policy – Health Services Stanford University Department of Economics President Emeritus Research Professor (by courtesy) Stanford University Stanford University Michael J. Boskin Graduate School of Business Senior Fellow T.M. Friedman Professor Stanford University FSI of Economics Peter and Helen Bing Department of Economics Professor in Undergraduate Stanford University Education, Emeritus Senior Fellow Professor of Law, Emeritus Hoover Institution Stanford University Stanford University

Susan Athey Jay Bhattacharya Dave Donaldson Pete Klenow

34 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR Raj Chetty Darrell Duffie Matthew Gentzkow Avner Greif Professor Dean Witter Distinguished Professor Bowman Family Professor in Department of Economics Professor of Finance Department of Economics the Humanities and Sciences Stanford University Graduate School of Business Stanford University Department of Economics Professor (by courtesy) Senior Fellow John Cochrane Department of Economics Ronald J. Gilson FSI Senior Fellow Stanford University Charles J. Meyers Professor of Professor (by courtesy) Hoover Institution Law and Business (Emeritus) Department of History Stanford University Mark Duggan Law School Stanford University The Trione Director of SIEPR Stanford University John Cogan The Wayne and Jodi Joe Grundfest Leonard and Shirley Ely Cooperman Professor of Judith Goldstein William A. Franke Professor of Senior Fellow Economics Janet M. Peck Professor of Law and Business Hoover Institution Department of Economics International Communication Law School Stanford University Stanford University Kaye University Fellow Stanford University Undergraduate Education Thomas Dee Pascaline Dupas Professor Associate Dean of Faculty Associate Professor of Department of Political Science Affairs Economics Stanford University Professor Department of Economics Graduate School of Education Stanford University Lawrence H. Goulder Stanford University Shuzo Nishihara Professor of Liran Einav Environmental and Resource Dave Donaldson Professor Economics Associate Professor Department of Economics Department of Economics Department of Economics Stanford University Kennedy-Grossman Fellow Stanford University Department of Human Biology Stanford University

Edward Lazear Susanna Loeb Alison Morantz Monika Piazzesi

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 35 Senior Fellows, continued

Stephen H. Haber Dan Kessler Edward Lazear Paul Milgrom A.A. and Jeanne Welch Professor Jack Steele Parker Professor Shirley and Leonard Ely Milligan Professor Law School of Human Resources Professor of Humanities and School of Humanities and Professor of Economic Policy Management and Economics Sciences Sciences Graduate School of Business Graduate School of Business Department of Economics Professor Senior Fellow Morris Arnold Cox Senior Professor (by courtesy) Department of History Hoover Institution Fellow Graduate School of Business Professor (by courtesy) Stanford University Hoover Institution Stanford University Department of Economics Professor (by courtesy) Director of the Social Science Pete Klenow Department of Economics N. Grant Miller History Institute Professor Stanford University Associate Professor Peter and Helen Bing Senior Department of Economics School of Medicine Fellow Senior Fellow Mark Lemley Associate Professor Hoover Institution Hoover Institution William H. Neukom Professor (by courtesy) Stanford University Professor (by courtesy) of Law Department of Economics and Department of Health Research Law School Health Research and Policy Eric Hanushek and Policy Stanford University Senior Fellow Paul and Jean Hanna Senior FSI Gordon and Betty Moore Jonathan Levin Fellow Senior Fellow Stanford University Hoover Institution SIEPR Holbrook Working Professor in Stanford University Stanford University Commodity Price Studies Alison Morantz Professor James and Nancy Kelso Caroline Hoxby Charles Kolstad Department of Economics Professor Scott and Donya Bommer Senior Fellow Professor of Economics Law School Professor in Economics Precourt Institute for Energy (by courtesy) Stanford University Department of Economics Graduate School of Business Professor (by courtesy) Paul Oyer Professor (by courtesy) Department of Economics Stanford University Graduate School of Business Stanford University Fred H. Merrill Professor Senior Fellow Susanna Loeb Graduate School of Business Hoover Institution Stephen D. Krasner Barnett Family Professor Stanford University Stanford University in Education Graham H. Stuart Professor of John H. Pencavel International Relations Graduate School of Education Stanford University The Pauline K. Levin-Robert Guido Imbens Senior Fellow L. Levin and Pauline C. Professor (by courtesy) FSI and Hoover Institution Thomas E. MaCurdy Levin-Abraham Levin Department of Economics Stanford University Professor in the School of Professor of Applied Professor Humanities and Sciences Econometrics Department of Economics Department of Economics Graduate School of Business Senior Fellow Stanford University Stanford Universityy Hoover Institution Stanford University Monika Piazzesi Joan Kenney Professor Department of Economics Professor of Finance (by courtesy) Graduate School of Business Stanford University

36 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR Senior Fellows, continued

Luigi Pistaferri John B. Shoven Michael Tomz Anne Krueger Professor Charles R. Schwab Professor of Professor Herald L. & Caroline L. Ritch Department of Economics Economics Department of Political Science Professor in Humanities and Stanford University Department of Economics Stanford University Sciences (emeritus) Buzz and Barbara McCoy Department of Economics A. Mitchell Polinsky Senior Fellow Barry Weingast Stanford University Josephine Scott Crocker Hoover Institution Ward C. Krebs Family Professor of Law and Stanford University Professor Lawrence Lau Economics Department of Political Science The Kwoh-Ting Li Professor Law School Martin Schneider Senior Fellow of Economics Development Stanford University Professor Hoover Institution (emeritus) Department of Economics Professor (by courtesy) Department of Economics Joshua Rauh Professor of Finance Department of Economics Stanford University Ormond Family Professor of (by Courtesy) Stanford University Finance Graduate School of Business Roger Noll Graduate School of Business Stanford University Frank Wolak Professor (emeritus) Stanford University Holbrook Working Professor of Department of Economics James L. Sweeney Commodity Price Studies Stanford University Gregory Rosston Professor Department of Economics Bruce Owen Deputy Director Department of Management Senior Fellow SIEPR Science and Engineering FSI Morris M. Doyle Centennial Director Director of the Precourt Stanford University Professor in Public Policy Public Policy Program Energy Efficiency Center (emeritus) Stanford University Professor (by courtesy) Senior Fellow (by courtesy) Department of Economics Emeritus Hoover Institution John Roberts Stanford University Senior Fellow Kenneth Arrow John H. Scully Professor FSI and Woods Institute for the Joan Kenney Professor of of Economics, Strategic Alvin Roth Environment Economics (emeritus) Management and Craig and Susan McCaw Stanford University Professor Department of Economics International Business of Economics Alan Sykes Professor of Operations (emeritus) Research (emeritus) Graduate School of Business Department of Economics Professor Stanford University Professor (emeritus) Professor (by courtesy) of Law School Department of Economics Management services and Stanford University Engineering Paul David Stanford University Stanford University John B. Taylor Professor (emeritus) Department of Economics Gavin Wright Mary and Robert Raymond Stanford University William Robertson Coe Scott Rozelle Professor of Economics Professor in American Helen C. Farnsworth Professor Department of Economics Victor Fuchs Economic History (emeritus) in International Agricultural George P. Shultz Senior Fellow Henry J. Kaiser, Jr. Professor Department of Economics Policy in Economics of Economics (emeritus) Stanford University Stanford University Hoover Institution Stanford University Professor (emeritus) Department of Health Research and Policy Stanford University

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 37 Steering Committee

Susan Athey Mark Duggan, ex officio Susanna Loeb James L. Sweeney Professor of Economics The Trione Director of SIEPR Barnett Family Professor in Professor Graduate School of Business The Wayne and Jodi Education Department of Management Stanford University Cooperman Professor of Graduate School of Education Science and Engineering Economics Stanford University Director B. Douglas Bernheim, Department of Economics Precourt Energy Efficiency ex officio Stanford University N. Grant Miller, ex officio Center Edward Ames Edmonds Associate Professor Senior Fellow (by courtesy) Professor of Economics Pascaline Dupas School of Medicine Hoover Institution Chair Associate Professor of Associate Professor Senior Fellow Department of Economics Economics (by courtesy) FSI and Woods Institute for the Stanford University Department of Economics Department of Economics and Environment Stanford University Health Research and Policy Stanford University Nicholas Bloom Senior Fellow Liran Einav Professor of Economics FSI John B. Taylor Department of Economics Professor Stanford University Mary and Robert Raymond Department of Economics Professor (by courtesy) Professor of Economics Stanford University Alison Morantz Graduate School of Business Department of Economics Stanford University James and Nancy Kelso George P. Shultz Senior Fellow Lawrence H. Goulder Professor in Economics Michael J. Boskin Shuzo Nishihara Professor of Law School Hoover Institution Environmental and Resource Stanford University T.M. Friedman Professor of Stanford University Economics Economics Department of Economics Paul Oyer Department of Economics Frank Wolak Kennedy-Grossman Fellow Fred H. Merrill Professor Senior Fellow Holbrook Working Professor of Department of Human Biology Graduate School of Business Hoover Institution Commodity Price Studies Stanford University Stanford University Stanford University Department of Economics Senior Fellow Timothy Bresnahan Pete Klenow Joshua Rauh FSI Professor Ormond Family Professor of Landau Professor in Stanford University Department of Economics Finance Technology and the Economy Graduate School of Business Department of Economics Senior Fellow Hoover Institution Stanford University Professor (by courtesy) Professor (by courtesy) Graduate School of Business John B. Shoven, chair Stanford University Department of Health Research and Policy Charles R. Schwab Professor of Kate Bundorf Gordon and Betty Moore Economics Department of Economics Associate Professor Senior Fellow Buzz and Barbara McCoy Department of Health Research SIEPR Senior Fellow and Policy Stanford University Hoover Institution Associate professor Stanford University (by courtesy) Political Economics at the Graduate School of Business Stanford University

38 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR Advisory Board

Chair Members Winston H. Chen Wallace R. Hawley Chairman Founder John A. Gunn Henry J. Aaron Paramitas Foundation InterWest Partners Former Chairman and CEO Bruce and Virginia Dodge & Cox MacLaury Senior Fellow Jonathan Coslet Robert B. Hellman, Jr. Investment Managers The Brookings Institution Senior Partner & Chief CEO & Managing Director Vice Chair of the Board Investment Officer American Infrastructure MLP Stanford Hospital Laura K. Arrillaga- Texas Pacific Group Fund Andreessen (on leave) William H. Davidow Walter Hewlett Honorary Chair Founder/President Laura Arrillaga-Andreessen Founder & General Partner Consulting Professor of Music Foundation George P. Shultz Mohr, Davidow Ventures Stanford University Founder & Chairman Distinguished Fellow Emeritus Feng Deng Hilary Hoynes Hoover Institution SV2 Founding General Partner Haas Distinguished Chair of Founder & Chairman Northern Light Venture Capital Economic Disparities Chair Emeriti Stanford Center on Philanthropy Professor of Economics and and Civil Society (PACS) Dixon R. Doll Public Policy Wallace R. Hawley Co-Founder & General UC Berkeley Founder Orley C. Ashenfelter Partner InterWest Partners Joseph Douglas Green 1895 DCM Benny T. Hu Professor of Economics William C. Edwards Partner Chairman Donald L. Lucas Princeton University Edwards Partners CDIB Bioscience Venture Private Venture Capitalist Management, Inc. Elizabeth E. Bailey John Freidenrich Bowen H. “Buzz” McCoy Professor Emeritus of Regis Management Company, Yongshan Huang Business and Public Policy LLC Trustee, Superintendent William J. Perry University of Pennsylvania Zhou Tong Institute of Security Michael and Barbara Gary Gauba Investment Berberian Professor Steve Ballmer President (Emeritus) Chairman CenturyLink Cognilytics Laura K. Ipsen Freeman Spogli Institute for Los Angeles Clippers Senior Vice President, Global International Studies Frederick L. A. Grauer Industries Solutions Group School of Engineering Mary G. F. Bitterman Chairman Oracle Corporation Stanford University President Purfresh, Inc. The Bernard Osher Foundation Franklin P. Johnson, Jr. Tad Taube Patrick W. Gross Founder Chairman Susan L. Bostrom Chairman Asset Management Company Taube Philanthropies Former Executive Vice The Lovell Group Honorary Consul President Richard B. Kapnick Republic of Poland Cisco Systems, Inc. Blake R. Grossman Partner Managing Partner Katten & Temple LLP Datong Chen CHJ Capital Management, LLC Co-Founder & Managing Harry Kellogg Partner Noosheen Hashemi Vice-Chairman Emeritus West Summit Capital President & Co-Founder Silicon Valley Bank The HAND Foundation

ANNUAL REPORT | 2014 – 2015 39 Advisory Board, continued

John B. Kleinheinz Eff W. Martin William J. Perry Edward C. Schultz III President Founding Partner Michael and Barbara Managing Director& Group Kleinheinz Capital Partners, Inc. Anthos Capital Berberian Professor Head, CIT Northern California (Emeritus) Corporate Banking & Sue Koffel Susan R. McCaw Freeman Spogli Institute for Technology Finance Managing Partner President International Studies CIT CMF Partners COM Investments School of Engineering Member Stanford University Charles R. Schwab Steven W. Kohlhagen Stanford University Board of Chairman of the Board Former Head of Fixed Income Trustees James Poterba Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Division President & CEO Wachovia Bank George E. McCown National Bureau of Economic Eugene B. Shanks, Jr. Former Professor Operating Director Research Director Haas School of Business American Infrastructure MLP Mitsui Professor of Economics Freddie Mac, ACE Ltd. UC Berkeley Fund MIT Adam Shapiro Barnaby J. Levin Bowen H. “Buzz” McCoy Michael Rashes Co-Founder Managing Director, Partner Principal East Rock Capital HighTower Advisors, LLC Burton J. McMurtry Bracebridge Capital Levin Wealth Management Retired Venture Capitalist John F. Sandy Smith Kanwal Rekhi Partner Dan’l Lewin Anthony Meier Managing Director Kilpatrick Townsend & Corporate Vice President General Partner Inventus Capital Partners Stockton, LLP of Technology and Civic The Meier Group Engagement Condoleezza Rice Thomas F. Stephenson Microsoft Thomas C. Melzer Denning Professor Partner Managing Director Center for Global Business and Sequoia Capital James Liang RiverVest Venture Partners the Economy Co-Founder, Chairman of the Stanford Graduate School of John T. Thompson Board, and Chief Executive Gordon E. Moore Business Vice-Chairman, Global CEO & Officer Chairman Emeritus of the Thomas and Barbara Board Practice Ctrip.com International, Ltd. Board Stephenson Senior Fellow on Heidrick & Struggles Intel Corporation Public Policy John P. Lipsky Hoover Institution David Topper Senior Fellow Robert B. Okun Stanford University Operating Partner The Paul H. Nitze School of Senior Partner & Chief 66th US Secretary of State General Atlantic Advanced International Studies Investment Officer Johns Hopkins University Oak Hill Advisors, L.P. Jesse Rogers Victor Trione Co-Founder & Managing Chairman of the Board Christopher S. Lynch Ken Olivier Director Luther Burbank Savings Director Chairman Emeritus Altamont Capital Partners AIG Dodge & Cox, Investment Mark A. Wolfson Non-Executive Chairman Managers Eric Schmidt Managing Partner Freddie Mac Executive Chairman Jasper Ridge Partners Independent Consultant Alphabet Inc.

August 2015

40 STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH | SIEPR John Thompson and Jim Poterba Roni and Robert Okun

Sheila and Mark Wolfson Jonathan Coslet

Tony Meier and Jesse Rogers Winston Chen JOHN A. AND CYNTHIA FRY GUNN BUILDING | 366 GALVEZ STREET | STANFORD, CA 94305-6015 SIEPR.STANFORD.EDU