The Value of Connections in Turbulent Times: Evidence from the United States
The Value of Connections In Turbulent Times: Evidence from the United States Daron Acemoglu Simon Johnson Amir Kermani MIT and NBER MIT and NBER MIT James Kwak Todd Mitton University of Connecticut BYU First Version: May 2009 This Version: May 2013 Abstract The announcement of Tim Geithner as President-elect Obama’snominee for Treasury Sec- retary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for …nancial …rms with which he had a personal connection. This return was around 15 percent from day 0 through day 10, relative to other comparable …nancial …rms. This result holds across a range of robustness checks and regardless of whether we measure connections in terms of …rms with headquar- ters in New York City, meetings he had in 2007-08, or non-pro…t board memberships he shared with …nancial services executives. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected …rms when news broke that Geithner’s con…rmation might be derailed by tax issues. Roughly in line with market expectations, the Obama administration hired people from Geithner-connected …rms into top level …nancial policy positions. Geithner’s policies proved supportive of large …nancial …rms’executives, shareholders, and creditors –including for Citigroup, with which he had the strongest prior connections. But the market-perceived quantitative value of connections is broader than just for the “too big to fail” category. We argue that this value of connections re‡ects the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small network of …nancial sector executives during a time of acute crisis and heightened policy discretion. Keywords: cultural capture, political connections, economic crises, institutions JEL Classi…cation: G01, G14, G21, G28 For helpful comments we thank seminar participants at MIT, Harvard Business School, the International Monetary Fund, the University of Alberta, BYU, and the 2012 Econometric Society meetings.
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