The German White Paper 2016 and the Challenge of Crafting Security Strategies
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THE GERMAN WHITE PAPER 2016 AND THE CHALLENGE OF CRAFTING SECURITY STRATEGIES Edited by Gunther Hellmann and Daniel Jacobi in cooperation with and Berlin & Frankfurt am Main 2019 The mission of the Aspen Institute Germany is to improve the quality of leadership through dialog about the values and ideals essential to meeting the challenges facing or- ganizations and governments at all levels. Over its forty-year history, Aspen Germany has been devoted to advancing values-based leadership – to creating a safe, neutral space in which leaders can meet in order to discuss the complex challenges facing modern socie- ties confidentially and in depth, with respect for differing points of view, in a search for common ground. The Aspen Institute’s role is limited to that of an organizer and convener. Aspen takes no institutional position on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. or German governments. 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The German White Paper 2016 and the Challenge of Crafting Security Strategies Edited by Gunther Hellmann and Daniel Jacobi PREFACE „Flawed interpretations of political affairs – be From today’s perspective, these early approaches they foreign, domestic, economic or technical – can towards strategic planning in the 70s and 80s lead to disastrous outcomes. But setting wrong ob- may almost be seen as relatively easy – given the jectives or implementing right objectives with clear structures of the Eastern and Western Bloc wrong means can be just as bad.“ and a manageable number of actors along with (Helmut Schmidt1) their relative predictability. Today, strategic planners are confronted with a highly complex elmut Schmidt is one of the few leading global framework and a multitude of disruptive German politicians who pushed strate- political developments and elements. Hence, the gic thinking on foreign and security pol- very thought of long-term strategies, doctrines, icy as essential for public discourse. and rules may seem presumptuous. HIt was he who, first as defense minister of the so- cial-liberal coalition from 1969 to 1972, estab- The last five years, in particular, have shown that lished the parameters of Germany’s foreign and assumptions, trends, forecasts, and scenarios that security policy in the 1970 White Paper “On the had previously been seen as gold standard for Security of the Federal Republic of Germany and credibility remain anything but reliable indica- the State of the Federal Armed Forces”, co-au- tors. From the annexation of Crimea to Brexit to thored by Theo Sommer and Christoph Bertram. Trump – the list of unpredicted and unforeseen developments and events that have radically al- The White Paper of 1970 is still considered a tered the world is extensive. This means that cur- turning point in Germany’s strategic culture de- rent trends and developments – e.g. questioning bate. It served as the intellectual basis underscor- the world order and its structures or the dangers ing the political and military logic of the social- of an uncontrolled cyber-armament – evolve in a liberal coalition’s détente policy under Willy chaotic rather than predictable and foreseeable Brandt. Embedded within a coordinated NATO manner. Is it a relapsing into a Hobbesian world policy, the ultimately successful approach was marked by uncontrolled and uncontrollable con- heavily disputed, triggering fierce political de- flicts? Everyone against everyone? Signs for such bates domestically. However, the détente policy a trend are unmistakable. This should increase could only be successful when based on three key pressure on everybody seeking to avoid these de- pillars, that enjoyed broad support in the respec- velopments. This is why strategic planning that tive parties in the Bundestag and the majority of sounds out political options will become increas- the German public: ingly critical, even as the room for maneuver re- - Germany’s unequivocal alignment with the mains narrow. West and its membership in NATO; The authors of this publication deserve a lot of - the transatlantic partnership with the Eu- credit, having approached this topic from a di- ropean guarantor power USA; verse range of perspectives and experiences. Thanks to them, various findings, valuable sug- - and the attempt to garner public backing gestions and proposals have been compiled – for this reorientation of German politics. ranging from calls for strengthening the Federal The Aspen Institute Germany remains heavily in- Security Council to demanding more active in- debted to these three key principles of German volvement of Bundestag in discussion and formu- and transatlantic policy. Willy Brandt and Marion lation of Germany’s foreign and security policy. I Gräfin Dönhoff being among Aspen’s founders, am therefore hoping for an open and positive en- this transatlantic institute – in an unparalleled gagement with this wide-ranging analysis. This way – created a safe confidential environment for may help to encourage a long-overdue public de- discussion and debate on strategic questions of bate on this topic. rapprochement and disarmament between East and West. The provision of platforms for confi- dential negotiations and encounters was a key means. Hence, it seemed only logical for Aspen to Rüdiger Lentz support this project on the necessities and possi- Executive Director bilities of strategic planning today. Aspen Institute Germany 1 Schmidt, H. 1969. Strategie des Gleichgewichts. Stuttgart: Seewald Verlag. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface ..................................................................................................................................................... 3 Abstracts ................................................................................................................................................. 9 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 15 1. The German White Paper 2016 and the Politics of Crafting Security Strategies Gunther Hellmann & Daniel Jacobi ................................................................ 15 Part I: The Process of Strategy Making ................................................................................... 21 2. Processes of Strategy Formation. Opportunities and Limitations Thomas Bagger .................................................................................................... 23 3. Strategy Development as an Institutionalized Process: Strategy and Foresight at the German Ministry of Defense Frank Richter ......................................................................................................... 29 4. …Because Today Will Tomorrow Have Been Yesterday – Future Analysis as an Instrument of Strategy Consulting Olaf Theiler ............................................................................................................. 33 5. On the Development of Strategy Formation through Strategic Foresight. Example: Storytelling Norbert Reez ........................................................................................................... 39 6. Notions of “Strategy” in the German White Papers and the Idea of “Sicherheitsvorsorge” Jan Fuhrmann ........................................................................................................ 47 Part II: Strategic Culture and the Public ................................................................................ 55 7. “What have the Romans ever Done for Us?” Personal Reflections on the Culture of the Strategy Experts’ Debate in Germany Hans-Peter Bartels ............................................................................................... 57 8. A More Audacious Approach. How Self-Reflection and Debate can Enhance our Strategic Capacity Roderich Kiesewetter .......................................................................................... 61 9. Country without Qualities? The White Paper 2016 and Germany's Difficult Relationship to its National Security Strategy Christian Thiels ...................................................................................................... 69 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS 10. The Illusion of a “Great Debate” about German Security Policy. A Plea for More Citizen Participation Anna Geis ................................................................................................................. 77 11. Public Opinion on Germany’s Security Policy: Military Restraint, Critical Events, and the Case for Political Argument Sebastian Nieke ..................................................................................................... 89 Part III: The Future and Challenges of Strategy Making ................................................. 97 12. Artificial Intelligence as a Security