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Climate, Sea-Ice, and Terrain Linkages

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Climate, Sea-Ice, and Terrain Linkages Collaborative Research: Greening of the Arctic: Synthesis and models to examine pan-Arctic vegetation change: climate, sea-ice, and terrain linkages Final Report by D.A. Walker and H.E. Epstein (PIs) With contributions from U.S. Bhatt, J.C. Comiso, B.I. Cook, G.J. Jia, J.O. Kaplan, M.K. Raynolds, and Q. Yu INTRODUCTION The GOA-SASS project Greening of the Arctic (GOA) is one of 228 endorsed projects of the International Polar Year. It addresses the question “Does the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice affect the tundra and those who depend on it?” The goals of GOA are to document and analyze the changes to terrestrial vegetation that are occurring across the circumpolar Arctic as a result of climate change. GOA consists of a group of scientists who are part of four funded projects: (1) A North American Arctic Transect, funded by NSF; (2) a Eurasian transect on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia, funded by NASA; (3) the Arctic Geobotanical Atlas, an educational/outreach component funded by NSF; and (4) synthesis and models to examine pan-Arctic vegetation change: climate, sea-ice, and terrain linkages (GOA-SASS), which was funded as part of the NSF Synthesis of Arctic System Science (SASS) initiative. This report contains the major activities and findings from the GOA-SASS component. Background The Arctic system has recently been undergoing some dramatic changes in both the structure and function of its components. One of the most apparent changes is the reduction in the extent and thickness of the summer sea ice during the past 30+ years (Stroeve et al. 2008). The extent of the perennial sea ice has declined at the rate of -10.1 percent per decade (Comiso et al. 2008), and the especially rapid retreat of sea-ice in 2005 and 2007 led to increased speculation that the Arctic Ocean may be ice free within this century (Stroeve et al. 2008). Another change is the increased summer greenness of the Arctic as detected using space-based sensors (Jia et al. 2003, Goetz et al. 2005, Bunn et al. 2007). A 17% increase in the greenness index occurred in northern Alaska during 1981-2001 (Jia et al. 2003), and similar changes in tundra greenness were observed for other areas of North America and the whole Arctic (Goetz et al., 2005, Bunn et al. 2007). These changes are attributed to an increase in the extent and abundance of shrubs (Sturm et al. 2001, Tape et al. 2006, Walker et al. 2006), a northward movement of trees from the sub- arctic (Lloyd 2005, Lloyd and Bunn 2007), longer growing seasons and increasing land temperatures (Jia et al., 2003, Goetz et al. 2005). One, often overlooked, feature of the Arctic tundra is its intimate relationship with the Arctic Ocean and sea ice. Eighty percent of the Arctic tundra (3.2 million km2) is within 100 km of at least seasonally frozen seawaters that provide the cool summer temperatures necessary for tundra’s presence. In other words, the tundra biome is essentially a maritime biome that owes its existence to the summertime cap of cold air centered over the frozen Arctic Ocean. Changes to the boundary of the perennial ice in the Arctic will likely affect a wide variety of other changes to the Arctic System, including northward migration of extra-tropical cyclones, general warming 1 of the land surfaces, increased productivity of the tundra, and a reduction in the extent of the tundra biome. There is apparently at least a strong correlation (if not causation) between what occurs in the ocean and what happens on land (Lawrence et al. 2008, Bhatt et al. 2008 in prep.-a, b). Lawrence et al. (2008) found, using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) (Holland et al. 2006), that rapid sea ice loss triggered accelerations in the rate of terrestrial temperature increases, extending up to 1500 km inland, with peak influences in autumn Figure 1. Simple Arctic system diagram emphasizing the effects of the Ocean-Ice and following the time of minimum Arctic sea ice near Atmosphere components on the Land component mid-September. Important system feedbacks can and feedbacks between the components. result from these various changes (Fig. 1). A decreased arctic sea-ice extent leads to a reduction in albedo, greater surface radiation absorption, increased latent heat, and potentially warmer ocean and air temperatures. Warmer ocean and air temperatures could be a positive feedback for continuing ice reduction. On the terrestrial side, earlier snowmelt and taller vegetation also lead to a reduction in albedo, with potentially greater surface and near-surface warming, which again can be a positive feedback for increased rates of snowmelt and vegetation growth. A recent lengthening of the growing season by 2.5 days per decade on the North Slope of Alaska could account for approximately 3.3 Watts m-2 decade-1 in additional local atmospheric heating, comparable to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (Chapin et al. 2005). If the land surfaces in the Arctic warm as predicted, changes in green biomass can be expected across the entire bioclimate gradient from treeline to the coldest parts of the Arctic. This will affect the permafrost and active layer, carbon reserves, trace-gas fluxes and carbon cycle, hydrological systems, biodiversity, wildlife populations, and the habitability of the Arctic. Changes in the vegetation will also affect the surface albedo with feedbacks to the global climate system. However, before future states of tundra ecosystems can be modeled, it is first necessary to better characterize how the current distribution of pan-Arctic plant communities and tundra production patterns are related to existing climate, sea ice, and terrain variables. Goals of the project GOA-SASS has the following overarching goals: (1) analyze the climate/sea- ice/terrain/vegetation linkages by synthesizing a group of recently available long-term circumpolar databases and (2) use this information in combination with models to help predict future response of arctic vegetation. In this GOA synthesis project we have analyzed a variety of circumpolar maps and remote sensing data to examine the underlying causes of pan-Arctic vegetation change. We have furthermore developed a variety of modeling tools to help predict the consequences of tundra warming at several scales. A synthesis of these circumpolar data sets is especially appropriate now during the International Polar Year. This synthesis is particularly relevant in the U.S. (Alaskan) portion of the Arctic because the sea-ice losses in the Beaufort Sea, north of Alaska, 2 and the changes in land-surface temperatures in the Alaska Arctic are the among the most dramatic in the circumpolar region. Results from this study show that between 1982 and 2007, sea ice in the 50-km coastal strip of the Beaufort Sea declined 29% and land-surface temperatures along the 50-km coastal strip in this region increased 18%. Furthermore, in this same region the maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, an index of vegetation greenness, increased 24% (Bhatt et al. 2008 in prep.). Organization of this report Our project is divided into two main research components: Component I: Climate, sea-ice, land-surface temperatures and greening: Spatial and temporal trends and interrelationships (Bhatt, Walker, Raynolds, Comiso, Jia); Component II: Simulation Modeling (Epstein, Kaplan, Lischke, Cook, and Yu). MAJOR FINDINGS Component I: Climate, sea-ice, land-surface temperatures and greening (Bhatt, Walker, Raynolds, Comiso, and Jia) This component of the project describes the circumpolar patterns of sea- ice and terrestrial vegetation, as well as their long-term dynamics. Bhatt et al. (2008, in prep., a, b) analyzed the pan-Arctic trends and variations in sea ice concentrations and their correlations with near- coastal ocean and land- surface temperatures, as well as the terrestrial vegetation. Land and ocean surface temperatures were evaluated for all areas within 50 km of the coasts. (The 50-km coastal land region represents approximately 60% of the extent of arctic tundra, and Figure 2. Regional trends of sea ice concentration, SWI, and integrated this width is optimal for NDVI shown as percent change since 1982. Regions are delineated according to floristic provinces and Arctic sea boundaries in 50-km zones representing the zone of along the land-ocean interface. SWI and NDVI trends are shown for the maximum influence of May-September period. Sea ice trends are based on a three-week period marine climate on tundra centered on the week when mean concentrations are 50%, the timing of vegetation.) Vegetation which varies regionally. Significant positive (negative) correlations are productivity was assessed shown with solid (dashed) lines. Sea ice concentration (SWI) has decreased (increased) throughout the Arctic. NDVI trends vary, but in using the remotely sensed general have been increasing (decreasing) in the North America (Eurasia) Normalized Difference (Bhatt et al. 2008 in prep. a). 3 Vegetation Index (NDVI). The period of analysis spanned from 1982-2007, essentially the duration of the available satellite data. The Arctic was divided into regions based on the Arctic sea delineations in the Russian Arctic Atlas (Treshnikov 1985, see Fig. 3). At the pan-Arctic scale, Summer Warmth Index (SWI, sum of mean monthly temperatures > 0°C) and NDVI show statistically significant increases over time, while sea ice shows significant declines. There are divergent trends in sea-ice and land temperatures in North America and Eurasia (Comiso 2003, Smith et al. 2004) that are also reflected in the NDVI record with a strongly positive NDVI trend in the northern Beringia/ Beaufort Sea region vs. a slightly negative trend in west- central Arctic Eurasia (Bhatt et al. 2008 in Figure 3. Trends in sea ice, land temperatures and NDVI in the Beaufort region prep.-a).
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