Matthias Otto

Feasibility Study and Future Projections of Suborbital at the Example of

Diplom.de

Matthias Otto Feasibility Study and Future Projections of Suborbital Space Tourism at the Example of Virgin Galactic

ISBN: 978-3-8366-1723-9 Herstellung: Diplomica® Verlag GmbH, Hamburg, 2008

Dieses Werk ist urheberrechtlich geschützt. Die dadurch begründeten Rechte, insbesondere die der Übersetzung, des Nachdrucks, des Vortrags, der Entnahme von Abbildungen und Tabellen, der Funksendung, der Mikroverfilmung oder der Vervielfältigung auf anderen Wegen und der Speicherung in Datenverarbeitungsanlagen, bleiben, auch bei nur auszugsweiser Verwertung, vorbehalten. Eine Vervielfältigung dieses Werkes oder von Teilen dieses Werkes ist auch im Einzelfall nur in den Grenzen der gesetzlichen Bestimmungen des Urheberrechtsgesetzes der Bundesrepublik Deutschland in der jeweils geltenden Fassung zulässig. Sie ist grundsätzlich vergütungspflichtig. Zuwiderhandlungen unterliegen den Strafbestimmungen des Urheberrechtes. Die Wiedergabe von Gebrauchsnamen, Handelsnamen, Warenbezeichnungen usw. in diesem Werk berechtigt auch ohne besondere Kennzeichnung nicht zu der Annahme, dass solche Namen im Sinne der Warenzeichen- und Markenschutz-Gesetzgebung als frei zu betrachten wären und daher von jedermann benutzt werden dürften. Die Informationen in diesem Werk wurden mit Sorgfalt erarbeitet. Dennoch können Fehler nicht vollständig ausgeschlossen werden und der Verlag, die Autoren oder Übersetzer übernehmen keine juristische Verantwortung oder irgendeine Haftung für evtl. verbliebene fehlerhafte Angaben und deren Folgen. © Diplomica Verlag GmbH http://www.diplomica.de, Hamburg 2008 Acknowledgements This work would not have been possible without the contribution of a great number of people that made themselves available for interviews and thus helped me with my investigations on suborbital space tourism. In particular, I am deeply grateful to the following persons:

Dr. Robert A. Goehlich Founder of Space Tourism Course, Keio University, Yokohama, Japan

Will Whitehorn President, Virgin Galactic, London, UK

John S. Spencer Founder and President, Space Tourism Society, Los Angeles, USA

Anthony Haynes Propulsion Team Leader, Starchaser Industries, Hyde, UK

Dr. Olle Norberg Chairman, Spaceport Sweden, Kiruna, Sweden

Jane Reifert President, Incredible Adventures, Sarasota, USA

Christoph Berner Head of Marketing & PR, Designreisen, Munich, Germany

Douglas Graham Public Affairs, XCOR Aerospace, Mojave, USA

Tom Shelley Vice President of Marketing, , Vienna, USA

Dr. Mathias Spude Company Spokesman, EADS Germany, Bremen, Germany

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Table of Contents Acknowledgements...... i Table of Contents...... ii List of Figures...... iv List of Tables...... iv List of Abbreviations ...... v Definitions ...... vi 1. Introduction...... 1 2. General Aspects on Space Tourism ...... 3 2.1 History of Space Exploration and Space Tourism ...... 3 2.2 Motives for going to space...... 5 2.3 Benefits of Space Tourism...... 7 2.4 Obstacles to Space Tourism...... 8 2.5 Stages of Space Tourism...... 9 3. Feasibility Study and Future Projections of Suborbital Space Tourism...... 15 3.1 The Virgin Galactic Approach ...... 15 3.1.1 The Product...... 16 3.1.2 The Place ...... 20 3.1.3 The Communication Policy ...... 22 3.1.4 SWOT Analysis of Virgin Galactic ...... 24 3.2 Analysis of Virgin Galactic’s Direct Competitors in Suborbital Space Tourism . 26 3.2.1 Space Adventures...... 26 3.2.2 Benson Space Company...... 28 3.2.3 Space Access...... 29 3.2.4 Incredible Adventures ...... 30 3.2.5 Rocketplane Limited ...... 31 3.2.6 Starchaser Industries ...... 33 3.2.7 ...... 34 3.2.8 Summary...... 36

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3.3 Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Their Manufacturers...... 39 3.3.1 SpaceShipTwo () ...... 39 3.3.2 Dream Chaser (SpaceDev) ...... 40 3.3.3 (Blue Origin) ...... 40 3.3.4 Skyhopper (Space Access) ...... 41 3.3.5 Newson’s Spaceship (EADS Astrium)...... 41 3.3.6 Lynx (XCOR Aerospace) ...... 42 3.3.7 Ascender (Bristol ) ...... 43 3.3.8 Thunderstar (Starchaser Industries) ...... 44 3.3.9 Rocketplane XP (Rocketplane Limited)...... 44 3.3.10 Summary...... 45 3.4 Regulatory Framework and Non-Profit Space Tourism Organisations...... 47 3.4.1 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ...... 47 3.4.2 X Prize Foundation ...... 49 3.4.3 Space Tourism Society...... 51 3.4.4 Summary...... 52 3.5 Suborbital Space Tourism Demand...... 53 4. Conclusion ...... 58 Bibliography Appendix

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List of Figures Figure 1: Pan Am Ticket (Sample) ...... 4 Figure 2: Most Interesting Aspects of a Flight ...... 6 Figure 3: Steps of a Parabolic Flight ...... 11 Figure 4: Suborbital Flight ...... 12 Figure 5: Virgin Galactic Logo ...... 15 Figure 6: WhiteKnightTwo and SpaceShipTwo ...... 16 Figure 7: Virgin Galactic's Suborbital Flight ...... 17 Figure 8: Virgin Galactic’s Partners ...... 19 Figure 9: Design Spaceport America ...... 21 Figure 10: Proposed Singapore Spaceport ...... 28 Figure 11: Passenger Forecast for Suborbital Flights...... 53 Figure 12: Passenger and Revenue Forecast for Suborbital Flights ...... 54 Figure 13: Willingness to Pay for Suborbital Flights ...... 55 Figure 14: Worldwide HNWI Population 2004 - 2006 ...... 55 Figure 15: Worldwide HNWI Wealth Distribution 2004 - 2006 ...... 56 Figure 16: Worldwide HNWI Population Growth 2005 - 2006 ...... 56

List of Tables Table 1: Stages of Space Tourism ...... 14 Table 2: SWOT Analysis of Virgin Galactic ...... 24 Table 3: Virgin Galactic’s Competitive Environment ...... 36 Table 4: Specifications of Reusable Launch Vehicles...... 45 Table 5: Teams...... 50

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List of Abbreviations

AMD Advanced Micro Devices ARCA Aeronautics and Cosmonautics Romanian Association ASA Accredited Space Agent CC Crew Capsule CEO Chief Executive Officer EADS European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company EKAD East Kern Airport District ELV Expendable Launch Vehicle ESA European Space Agency FAA Federal Aviation Administration FAI Fédération Aéronautique Internationale FAQ Frequently Asked Questions HNWI High Net Worth Individual ILTM International Luxury Travel Market ISS International LEO Low-Earth-Orbit MCAAS Marine Corps Auxiliary Air Station MPL Maximum Probable Loss NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration PTC Product Development Company RLV Reusable Launch Vehicle SCSG Southern California Selene Group SSC Swedish Space Corporation USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WTC Western Technology Center

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Definitions Suborbital Space Flight: “Suborbital space flight for tourism can be defined where customers pay an initially high price to go on a quick ballistic flight in a spacecraft into space, get a few minutes of weightlessness and then return to Earth, without reaching orbit.” (Goehlich, 2002, pp. 15-16)

Space Tourism: “Space tourism can be defined to include not only the vehicles that take public passengers into space, but also from the perspective of the "destination" paradigm. As such, the industry can be envisioned to include not only Earth based attractions that simulate the space experience such as space theme parks, space training camps, virtual reality facilities, multi-media interactive games and telerobotic Moon rovers controlled from Earth, but also parabolic flights, vertical suborbital flights, orbital flights lasting up to 3 days, or week-long stays at a floating space hotel, including participatory educational, research and entertainment experiences as well as space sports competitions (i.e. space Olympics). (Goehlich, 2007, p. 215)

Space Tourism: “Ordinary members of the public buying tickets to travel to space and back.” (Space Future, 2007)

Apogee: “The apogee is the point at which a body is at its furthest orbit from the Earth. The word derives from the Greek prefix apo meaning away and the word gaia meaning Earth. When a body is at apogee, it is also at its minimal orbital velocity.” (McGuigan, 2008)

The Karman Line: Named after Hungarian Theodore von Karman, an engineer and physicist dealing with aeronautics, the term Karman Line is generally used to describe the boundary between Earth and , which is defined by the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale, an astronautic records commission, to be at an altitude of 100 kilometres. (FAI, 2004)

Low-Earth-Orbit: “The region of space below the altitude of 2000 km.” (NASA, 1995)

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1. Introduction Since its very beginning mankind has been enormously impelled by visions. Striving for records and yearning for adventures is as old as humanity itself. Consequently, the Mount Everest was scaled and the depths of the oceans were explored. After thousands of years it seems that all adventures on Mother Earth have been done. We have always been fascinated by the unknown and the mysterious things, and which territory is more unknown than the Outer Space? Almost everyone has watched movies dealing with this topic, but scarcely anybody has ever set foot on non-Earth area. However, what still seems unimaginable might soon become daily routine. Trips to London, Paris or New York? Why not travel into the endlessness of space one time? Private ventures are currently planning to capitalise on this market niche: spaceports are built, special vehicles are under development, and tickets for suborbital space flights can already be purchased. The start of the Space Race has been heralded. In doing so, safety is the supplier’s top priority. Hitherto, the offer is narrowed down to the wealthy members of our society - a flight costs some hundred thousand dollars. However, the companies expect prices to go down significantly if demand is steadily increasing, which will be the cornerstone for mass space tourism. It might be unbelievable at present, but the first steps towards fulfilling this vision have been taken. This work deals with the topic space tourism, more specifically the author introduces a Feasibility Study and Future Projections of Suborbital Space Tourism, which is demonstrated at the example of Virgin Galactic. In doing so, the core objective of the present work is to analyse and evaluate whether the emerging suborbital space tourism has the potential to turn into a viable and revenue-generating industry in the near future. In order to answer this research question, there is a plethora of crucial aspects that will be investigated. First of all, the author comes up with general aspects on space tourism, including an overview about the history of space exploration and tourism, followed by the motives for going to space, the benefits as well as the obstacles of space tourism, and finally its different stages. This information builds the cornerstone for the further analysis. Afterwards, there will be the actual feasibility study and the future projections of suborbital space tourism. At this point, it should be noticed that the feasibility study will be the largest part of the present work since it delivers facts, whereas the future projections are rather based on these facts. A feasibility study in general is a study with

1 the goal of determining a project’s viability. According to these results, a decision can be made whether to proceed with the project or whether to cease it. The feasibility study in the present work consists of the Virgin Galactic approach, an analysis of the direct competitors in suborbital space tourism, an analysis of suborbital reusable launch vehicles and their manufacturers, an overview about the regulatory framework as well as about non-profit space tourism organisations, and finally it consists of the suborbital space tourism demand. At the end there will be a conclusion, which contains the most vital results of the feasibility study and, more importantly, the answer to the research question. In general, the author provides an overview about the content as well as an indication of the used literature in the beginning of each chapter. On the whole, sources of information are the Internet and publications in terms of books or reports, which will provide the basics for this work. Additionally, the author comes up with results from personal interviews conducted with experts that are either employed in companies related to space tourism or that are investigating on this topic. Normally, such an interview consists of five to seven target-oriented questions. The author conducted the interviews either via telephone or via email contact. This work will be finalised by providing the bibliography, the appendix, as well as the affidavit.

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