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What Is Commercial Space? Texas and Commercial Space Presentation to 31st Texas Aviation Conference 14 May 2013 Chip Hill, Director Space Engineering Research Center Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station 979.845.8768 [email protected] Virgin Galactic Spaceship Two Courtesy Virgin Galactic Presentation Objective Describe the Commercial Space industry and discuss areas of interest for Texas Aviation – Introductions – Definitions – Aviation and other thoughts Space Engineering Research Center • Originally chartered as a NASA Testing on NASA Commercial Space Center (mid 80’s) Zero Gravity to support technology (space) testing aircraft and commercialization • Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station (TEES) Center pursuing interdisciplinary aerospace activities • Expertise/programs in thermal control, Student space group visible cameras (star trackers), energy storage, solar power, two phase flow, image processing, zero gravity testing, power beaming • Industry, government and university associations to compete for government/industry contracts and grants 4 Some Definitions… • Let’s consider altitude regimes – “Near Space”, Orbital, and beyond Orbital • Near Space is area between “airspace” and Outer Space, ~20 km (12 miles) to 100 km (62 miles) • Traditional Low Earth Orbit altitude starts at 160 km (99 miles) View of Space from 30 km • Near Space traversed by high altitude balloons and suborbital vehicles • Outer Space (including beyond Orbital) typically the province of Government and Civil (satellite) programs (Satellites $170B/year) What is Commercial Space? • Means many things to many people, but recommend: 1. Derives most/all its funding from Non-governmental sources 2. Pursues a business model based on delivering cargo or humans to space (orbital or suborbital) 3. For the purposes of this talk, Suborbital flight profile for XCOR Lynx space plane focused on commercial human spaceflight • Typically Non (space)-traditional players • First really new stimulus to space imagination since Apollo 6 The Business Opportunities… • Suborbital launch of payloads (experiments) and humans (tourists) — Several providers, operations probably in the next year or two — Virgin Galactic order backlog – 500+ at $200,000 per person — Ballistic trajectories… but also “ricochet” trajectories? (point to point) — Technology doable… risks manageable? • Orbital transportation of payloads and humans ͞ NASA funded Commercial Crew Program already exists ͞ “Grow to” business model for several/most launch providers ͞ Numerous concepts… Bigelow Aerospace inflatable space hotel ͞ Technology more daunting… large risk increase • Beyond Orbital missions being discussed — Asteroid mining (Planetary Resources), Lunar transportation/habitation (Golden Spike), Mars mission (Mars One – 78,000 respondents) • Potential new industries, facilities, jobs (one estimate, $3.3B suborbital launch market by 2020)* *XCOR research Who’s Involved… • Billionaires who have started or invested in space enterprise/ tourism ventures* – Paul Allen, Co-founder of Microsoft – Larry Page, Co-founder and CEO Google, Inc. – Eric E. Schmidt, Executive Chairman of Google, Inc. – Ram Shriram, Founding board member of Google, Inc. – Jeff Bezos, Founder of Amazon.com – Sir Richard Branson, Founder of the Virgin Companies – Elon Musk, Co-founder of PayPal – Robert Bigelow, Founder of the Budget Suites hotel chain – Charles Simonyi, Ph.D., Chairman and CTO, International Software – Ross Perot, Jr., Chairman of the Perot Group Producer/director/explorer James Cameron, advisor to some of these ventures *From Space Tourism Society The Business Case… • Operations have to be sustainable without Government funds • Sustainable means profitable • Profitable possibly depends on the “Virtuous Cycle”* • Tipping point for Venture Capital? • Safety/risk unknown, especially orbital transportation (insurance model?) • Role of Government and Government regulation – Experimental airworthiness certificate versus commercial launch license – Space Coast Guard?* *Commercial Spaceflight Federation *DSER Strategy Group Commercial Space in Texas Blue Origin • First-rate Texas aerospace industry, New Shepard military, & university research • Resources/facilities (NASA/JSC, SWRI) XCOR Lynx/Payload Pod • Commercial space company activity ̅ SpaceX – McGregor engine plant, vertical ascent/descent launch pad ̅ XCOR – starting R&D and HQ facility in Midland Armadillo Aerospace ̅ Armadillo Aerospace – HQ in Heath Stig B ̅ Blue Origin – launch facility in Van Horn ̅ Texas presence – Boeing, Sierra SpaceX Falcon 9 Nevada, etc. ̅ Spaceport proposals Commercial Space Status – Industry is forming —National & State advocacy groups, National conferences —~ 20 companies exploring launch or related services —Variety of business models (SpaceX servicing the International Space Station - to zero-gravity tourist flights) – Other States got a head start on Texas (California, Florida, New Mexico, etc.), but… —Industry reps met with Gov. Perry last July —Office of Economic Development & Tourism and Texas Workforce Commission engaged —Various legislative agendas —Regional economic development activities Gov. Perry examining Lynx space plane —Houston-centered activities involving NASA Relationship to Aviation • Commercial space commonalities with aviation industry —Spaceports/airports, flight safety, workforce training, legal, flight testing —Operations are similar for much of the flight profile, airspace integration more similar than for Unmanned Aerial Systems —Transportation profit metric (payload/frequency/safety) – like when aviation went from carrying mail to passengers? • Similar feeder industries • Leverage existing aviation network/infrastructure to work commercial space advocacy and growth Virgin Galactic White Knight Two/Spaceship Two XCOR Lynx Mark 1 Sierra Nevada Dream Chaser FAA is Involved • FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation (CST) • Industry “self-regulating” until 2015 • Centers of Excellence for CST (UT Medical Branch) • FAA Aviation R&D Research Grant (Commercial Space Transportation) – Safety and Orbital Debris – Coordination of reusable launch vehicle operations within the air traffic control system – Human Factors and Aviation Medicine (space planes) – Aircraft Safety Technology (space planes) – Aviation Weather SERC & Commercial Space • Marketing useful space skills (e.g. zero gravity testing) • Connecting dots (e.g. Shuttle Mission Simulator at Texas A&M) • Supporting Commercial Space initiatives (we are not an economic development group) • NASA/Johnson fluids test cassette planned for suborbital test (likely launch provider Virgin Galactic) Shuttle Mission Simulator • Payload carrier development for XCOR Lynx • International Space Station Implementation Partner • Payload integrator for XCOR Lynx • Technical support for student space science and engineering flight opportunities* Lynx Cub Carrier Student Team *Space Education and Innovation Center Anticipating Commercial Space Needs • Difficult to define space growth areas and timing • Need to bring Texas Commercial Space interests together to discuss relevant issues and create an environment for success and opportunities • Proposing a one day workshop – presentations/panels, moderated topical breakout sessions, discussion on Way Forward • Desired Outcome: Identify interest groups that have highest likelihood of continuing to contribute value, develop plans for ongoing activities • Role for Aviation community 15 Texas Commercial Space Workshop • Establish Working Panels in specific areas to continue the dialog and shape the agenda for future workshops • Suggested Topic Areas/Panels – Research & New Initiatives – Education & Workforce Development – Economic Development & Infrastructure – Government & Policy • Conference tentatively Fall (September) 2013, College Station • If you have input: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/JMQT5NX • Updates on my website, http://serc.tamu.edu 16 Here are some Space Tourists Courtesy Space Adventures Summary • Commercial Space emerging as a recognizable, potentially viable industry • Significant base of support in Texas • Aviation community awareness could help identify and facilitate regional, economic, educational, and political activities to grow this in Texas • Questions? .
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