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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS November 1945 Deliveries Were Still Considerably in the Twenties

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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS November 1945 Deliveries Were Still Considerably in the Twenties NOVEMBER 1945 SURVEY OF UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE Survey of CURRENT USINESS VOLUME 25, No. 11 NOVEMBER 1945 Statutory Functions "The Bureau of For- eign and Domestic Commerce . • • to foster, promote, and develop the foreign and domestic commerce of the United States" ILaw creating the Bureau, Aug. 23, 1912 137 Stat. 4081.1 Contents © Page THE BUSINESS SITUATION . 1 Department of Commerce Field Service Sales and Redemptions of War Bonds . 5 Atlanta 3, Ga., 603 Rhodes Bldg. Construction Prospects ...... 7 Boston 9, Mass., 1800 Customhouse. Buffalo 3, N. Y., 242 Federal Bldg. Charleston 3, S. C, Chamber of Commerce Bldg. THE POSTWAR PRICE STRUCTURE . 12 Chicago 4, 111., 357 U. S. Courthouse. Cincinnati 2, Ohio, Chamber of Commerce. Cleveland 14, Ohio, 753 Union Commerce Bldg., Euclid Ave. at East 9th St. STATISTICAL DATA: Dallas 2, Tex., Chamber of Commerce Bldg. Denver 2, Colo., 566 Customhouse. Detroit 26, Mich., 1028 Federal Bldg. New or Revised Series ...... 23 Houston 14, Tex., 603 Federal Office Bldg. Jacksonville 1, Fla., 425 Federal Bldg. Monthly Business Statistics .... S-l Kansas City 6, Mo., 724 Dwight Bldg. Los Angeles 12, Calif., 1540 U. S. Post Office and Courthouse. General Index .... Inside back cover Memphis 3, Term., 229 Federal Bldg. Minneapolis 1, Minn., 201 Federal Bldg. New Orleans 12, La., 408 Maritime Bldg. New York 18, N. Y., 17th Floor, 130 W. 42d St. Philadelphia 2, Pa., 1510 Chestnut St. Pittsburgh 19, Pa., 1013 New Federal Bldg. Portland 4, Oreg., Room 313, 520 S. W. Mor- liOtC—Contents of this publication are not copyrighted and rison St. may be reprinted freely. Mention of sources will be appreciated. Richmond 19, Va., Room 2, Mezzanine, 801 E. Broad St. St. Louis 1, Mo., 107 New Federal Bldg. San Francisco 11, Calif., 307 Customhouse. Savannah, Ga., 513 Liberty National Bank and Trust Bldg., Bull and Broughtin Sts. Seattle 4, Wash., 809 Federal Office Bldg. Published by the BUREAU of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, AMOS E. TAYLOR, Director—Department of Com- merce, HENRY A. WALLACE, Secretary. Subscription price $2 a year; Foreign, $2.75. Single copies, 20 cents. Price of the 1942 Supplement, the last issued, 50 cents. Make remittances direct to the Superintendent of Documents, United States Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C. The Business Situation By Division of Research and Statistics, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce USINESS ACTIVITY continued to spread work stoppages in the industry. Other weekly indicators of production decline in October, but at a slower (See chart 1.) The curtailed flow of coal and primary distribution were generally Brate than in the preceding 2 months, to blast furnaces as a result of the strike lower in October than a month earlier when the major cutbacks in war produc- in the mines reduced the average weekly although there have been no severe re- tion took effect. The most notable steel operating rate in October to 71 per- ductions outside the munitions indus- changes during the past month occurred cent of capacity compared with the tries. As a matter of fact, the economy in industrial output and factory ship- September rate of 80 and last spring's in the first 3 months following VJ-day ments. Although the October decrease 95. However, the steel rate turned up- has shown very considerable resiliency in in the finished munitions delivered was ward at the end of the month after coal the face of the quick stoppage of much of smaller than in the preceding month, output was again stepped up to earlier the armament program. Also, there have manufacturing output as a whole con- volume. not been very marked repercussions in tinued to fall at about the same rate due Crude petroleum output, which is also prices. to the substantial reduction in coal and shown in the chart, moved downward Some unsettlement occurred, but on steel. following VJ-day as a result of greatly the whole the price level and structure reduced military requirements for avia- today are not much different from what Reductions in Coal and Steel tion gasoline and other petroleum prod- they were in mid-August. Meanwhile, ucts. Increased civilian demand follow- more goods have become available for The output of bituminous coal de- ing the end of gasoline rationing has pro- civilians—notably meats and gasoline— clined substantially during the first 3 vided only a partial offset to the reduced and this tendency which will accelerate weeks of October as a result of wide- takings of the military. from now on will gradually ease the de- mand pressure on prices over a wider and wider segment of the economy. Chart 1.—Selected Business Indicators—Weekly Production Some Fields Remain Strong In general, there was a retardation dur- PERCENT OF CAPACITY MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS ing October in the rate of decline in the 100 14 economy. The number of lay-offs slack- ened, while employment in some areas increased as a result of seasonal upturns 12 and the easing labor supply. Trends in the services and trade remained buoyant. The decline in income payments to in- dividuals that continued into October was 80 10 still confined largely to manufacturing pay rolls. The major subject for concern remained the speed of reconversion and 70 how soon sufficient job opportunities would develop for the veterans who were being discharged at the rate of well over one million a month. 60 STEEL BITUMINOUS COAL Reconversion Progress 50 iliiiliiiiliiiliiilmilnilinliii.liiilimli I I M I 1 11 M I I M 1 It t I I I I ) I I II I || I 1 , ! , ! 1 I • I 1 I I I I fj IThe first part of the reconversion job, cutting off war production in the war- BILLIONS-OF KILOWATT HOURS MILLIONS OF BARRELS converted plants, was virtually completed 6 by the end of September. This was fol- lowed by the initial phases of resuming ELECTRIC POWER CRUDE PETROLEUM civilian production. The easier produc- (DAILY AVERAGE) tion items, particularly those that had been given the go-ahead signal imme- diately after VE-day, began to appear in the stores. In the case of durable goods, however, while considerable progress was evident, the quantities produced were still small 3 I I M 1 I 1 I I I I M I M I I i 1 I 1 I j I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I I I II [I II j I I 1I I| 1 II It II I I I I I 1 I I I 1 I I I I 1 ! I I 1 I I I 1 I I I I j 1 I I i I I compareI I 1 I I I 3d with prewar output and were J F M A M J J A S OND J F M AM J J A OND hardly large enough to influence the vol- !945— >- ^ 1945 ume of retail sales. Some new automo- a D. 45-753 biles, a prime example of the more com- plex production segments, were distrib- Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute; U. S. Bureau of Mines; Edison Electric Institute; and American Petroleum Institute. uted to dealers for display, but large-scale 668469—45 1 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS November 1945 deliveries were still considerably in the twenties. The data used here are for the production experience of new models future. registrations, but obviously these were of airplanes and those manufactured in It is well to keep in mind the time determined by production. Included in new plants. Since it is a composite, the necessary to organize production and these figures are the registrations of occasional jagged monthly movements to secure volume output. During this Model T passenger cars, no longer in do not show up as in the other two cases. organizational phase, a considerable production, as well as registrations of In this case, the production curve pre- amount of activity is generated which Model A's produced by Ford. In com- sented here begins after the blueprint means employment, but which does not puting the index of registrations for this and planning stages are completed and find immediate reflection in the flow of purpose, the previous monthly peak out- the first experimental models have been finished products into the channels of put was used as 100. tested. The monthly production goal distribution. The 15 millionth and last Model T was taken as 100. This can be seen in part in the way came off the assembly line in May 1927. Here again, significantly, the typical employment is holding up relative to It wasn't until October of that year— experience was that it took about a year shipments in the metal-working indus- 5 months later—that the first of the new from the manufacture of the first plane tries. Preliminary estimates for October Model A's was completed. (The small to a monthly production rate that was show that while shipments in the recon- number of registrations shown on the one-half of the goal. Then, in another version metal industries (metal products chart for 1927 and early 1928 represent 6 months, the goal was attained. While other than aircraft, ships, and ordnance) sales of Model T's in the hands of deal- this is an average, with some models were 60 percent below the first quarter ers.) taking less time and others more, all of this year, man-hours of work were Five months were consumed by Ford models followed similar patterns. down only 30 percent. The higher rela- in changing over equipment, tools, dies, The third case in this chart, an in- tive employment is needed to clear the jigs, and fixtures and accumulating parts fantry rifle, represents a smaller pro- plants of the special machinery for mu- for the new models.
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