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Chad Food Security Update: September 25, 2000 Summary 1. Agro-Meteorological Conditions

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Chad Food Security Update: September 25, 2000 Summary 1. Agro-Meteorological Conditions Chad Food Security Update: September 25, 2000 Summary August is considered the highest rainfall month of the season in Chad. During the first two dekads (10-day periods), rainfall was good in most parts of the country. During the third dekad, rains were below normal and poorly distributed in time and space, especially in the eastern part of the country, and northwestern Batha and northern Kanem Prefectures. In the first dekad of September, fairly regular rains fell in the southern Sudanian zone. In the Sahelian zone, however, the rainfall deficit recorded in the third dekad of August extended to the first dekad of September. Satellite imagery corroborates these weather station observations. The stage of crop development varies from region to region. As of the first dekad of September, crops were generally doing well in the Sudanian zone, with the exception of some light wilting in some locations. Light to moderate wilting was reported in part of the Sahelian zone. Pests were not much of a problem in the Sudanian zone, although crop damage by Spanish flies and grasshoppers was reported in some areas of Ouaddaï, Batha and Chari-Barguimi Prefectures in the Sahelian zone. Regular monitoring of crop wilting and pest infestations is strongly recommended through the end of September. Animal health and the pastures are generally good. Food security conditions are satisfactory in last year's good production areas. However, in moderately food insecure zones targeted by the World Food Program (WFP) and the Agricultural Services Directorate, the situation is gradually improving as a result of free food distributions by WFP. By the end of August, prices of millet and sorghum were at normal seasonal levels on the markets of the southern Sudanian zone but remained above last month's prices on the major Sahelian markets. Increasing in water levels were reported at most stations near Lake Chad and in the Chari and Logone River Basins, particularly during the last dekad in August. Water levels stabilized during the first dekad of September. 1. Agro-meteorological Conditions During August, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the front that brings seasonal rainfall to the Sahel, reached 19º N over Ounianga Kebir in the far northern part of Chad. During the first two dekads (10-day periods), heavy rains fell across the country with almost regular frequency, helping plant development and creating significant groundwater reserves in the ground. Low localized rainfall was recorded in some locations during the third dekad and corroborated by satellite imagery, especially in the arid northern parts of Biltine, Kanem, Batha and part of Chari Barguimi Prefectures (Figure 1). Rainfall during the third dekad was lower overall than in the previous dekads. According to records of the Directorate of Water Resources and Meteorology (DREM), August rainfall this year was lower than normal August rainfall at most rain stations (Table 1). Table 1 shows that of the fifteen rain stations for which Figure 1. Estimated Rainfall in the long-term average is available, only three had above- Chad: August 21-31, 2000 normal rainfall in August: Am-Tissan (4%), Fianga (7%) and Sarh météo in the south (27%). Some of the stations with below-normal rainfall showed quite large deficits compared to the monthly average, particularly Biltine (- 91%), Oum Hadjer (-71%), and Bol dune (-68%). During the first dekad of September, the ITCZ retreated to 17º N over Fada in Ennedi Sub-prefecture. Rainfall deficits were still recorded mostly in the Sahelian zone. According to DREM, totals for the dekad were generally lower than in 1999 at the same time. In rain stations located in the Sudanian as well as the Sahelian zone, total rainfall in the dekad ending September 10 were lower than normal (Table 2). FEWS NET/Chad; Source: NOAA, USGS N'Djaména received almost no rain during the first dekad and, as shown in Table 2, N'Djaména airport had the greatest rainfall deficit (-95%). A sharp deficit continued in Biltine (-87%), following the previous monthly deficit during August (-91%). Table 1. Comparison of Rainfall in August 2000 with Normal Rainfall in August Monthly Total Compared to Normal (1961-90) Season Total Volume (mm) Number of Days Volume (mm) Percent (mm) Am-Timan 304.1 24 292.2 4 690.3 Abéché 79.2 14 202.4 -61 367.5 Baïïlle 231.4 14 276.4 -16 649.2 Biltine 13.4 4 142.9 -91 258.4 Bol dune 56.5 5 176.6 -68 270.1 Bousso 203.7 12 280.9 -27 702.7 Deressia 223.2 11 Donomanga 257.1 12 266.4 -3 709.7 Laï 274.5 17 Maïlao 189.0 10 Mangalmé 101.8 13 239.5 -57 501.6 Mao 84.0 5 168.3 -50 294.4 Massakory 148.8 9 Mongo 222.0 17 302.9 -27 630.5 Moulkou 292.9 26 Oum-Hadjer 55.7 4 194.8 -71 346.0 Pala airport 231.4 19 243.6 -5 757.7 Tchendjou 156.1 9 Moundou 247.7 17 303.0 -18 847.8 Fianga CFPA 275.5 16 257.3 7 650.7 Sahr météo 359.3 18 283.4 27 Source: DREM Table 2. Comparison of Rainfall in the First Dekad of September 2000 with Normal Rainfall in the First Dekad of September Dekadal Total Compared to Normal (1961-90) Volume (mm) Number of Days Volume (mm) Percent Season Total (mm) Abéché 11.1 2 33.1 -66 400.6 Biltine 1.5 1 11.6 -87 270.0 Moissala 24.5 5 87.1 -72 890.7 Massenya 13.5 2 47.4 -72 566.1 N’Djamena airport 2.2 1 44.0 -95 523.0 N’Gouri 8.0 3 19.9 -60 293.6 Sarh météo 8.7 4 68.5 -87 841.4 Source: DREM 2. Crop Conditions By the end of August, crops in the Sahelian zone were at the tillering and height-growth stages. Cowpeas and groundnuts were branching out and sometimes flowering. In the Sudanian zone, millet and sorghum conditions varied from height growth to head formation, and even maturation phase in some locations. Groundnuts were also maturing. After the first dekad of September, light to moderate wilting was reported in some locations across the Sahelian zone. Elsewhere, crop performance was mostly satisfactory. Many crops were approaching maturity. In the Sudanian zone, crop development was proceeding normally in most areas. Most crops need weeding as they reach maturity. 3. Pests and Plant Health and Protection A few species of grasshoppers were reported in the east (Ouaddaï and Biltine Prefectures) and in central Chad (Chari Barguimi Prefecture). Damage was quite significant. According to the Directorate of Plant Protection (DPVC), some fields have 20 to 30 grasshoppers per square meter. About 2,000 liters of pesticide were shipped to these areas to help farmers, under supervision of local DPVC agents, to control the grasshoppers Figure 2. Vegetation Index (NDVI) Grasshopper infestations continued during the first dekad in Chad: August 21-31, 2000 of September in Batha, Ouaddaï and Lake Prefectures and part of Chari-Barguimi Prefecture. Pesticides were shipped towards the infestation zones, including Massakory (Lake Prefecture), but quantities as well as the means to marshal the teams in the field will not be sufficient for the task. Other crop pests include Spanish flies (cantharides), grain-eating birds, stem borers and millet borers. 4. Livestock Conditions Pastures are mostly good, except for northern Kanem, Biltine and Batha Prefectures where satellite imagery (Figure 2) shows lack of vegetation, or bare soil. Water FEWS NET/Chad; Source: NASA, USGS points are mostly filled except in the same areas in the northern Sahelian zone. However, animal health overall is satisfactory. A few isolated cases of diarrhea, foot and mouth disease and dermatophytosis (skin fungus) have been reported in the southern part of the country. 5. River and Lake Water Levels As reported in the Food Security Update for July, water levels were above those of last year. River levels continued to rise steadily at most stations during August. Lake Chad rose 9 cm during the third dekad of the month. Water levels in the Chari and Logone river basins were improving, according to the Directorate of Hydrology. Water levels stabilized during the first part of the first dekad in September but resumed their increase later in the dekad, based on information from the Directorate of Hydrology. Table 3 compares water levels at key locations on or near the same date over the past three years. Table 3. Interannual Comparison of River and Lake Water Levels in Chad cm above sea level 1998 1999 2000 N’Djamena TP 573 487 460 Chagoua 626 539 511 Sarh 560 479 418 N’Guely 496 460 464 Bol 56 148 151 Note: Water levels for N’Djamena, Chagoua and Sarh were measured on September 13 of each year. Those for N’Guely and Bol were taken on September 1 in 1998 and 1999 and on August 31 in 2000. Source: Directorate of Hydrology 6. Markets and Food Access A look cereal prices in August shows that millet remained more expensive than sorghum in each of six major markets, according to Tables 4 and 5. Moreover, prices in the Sudanian zone markets (Moundou and Sarh) were lower than prices in the Sahelian zone markets (all others). Sarh, in the Sudanian zone, registered the biggest percent increase in millet price between July and August, although its price remained considerably lower than Sahelian zone prices. Sudanian zone prices remained the same (Moundou) or decreased (Sarh) over the past year while Sahelian zone prices increased, most notably in Abéché where millet nearly tripled in price.
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