CPIR Transport Strategy Development
Appendix D - Camborne Pool Redruth Best and Final Funding Forecasting Report
August 2011 Camborne Pool Redruth Best and Final Funding
Forecasting Report
August 2011 Cornwall Council
Camborne291073 ITD Pool ITW Redruth5 B P:\Southampton\ITW\Projects\291073 cpr 2011\wp\CPR BAFFB ForecastReport revB doc Best and Final FundingAugust 2011
Forecasting Report
August 2011
Cornwall Council
A3 Carrick House, Pydar Street, Truro, TR1 1EB
Mott MacDonald, Stoneham Place, Stoneham Lane, Southampton SO50 9NW, United Kingdom T +44(0) 23 8062 8800 F +44(0) 23 8062 8801, W www.mottmac.com
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Issue and revision record
Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description
A July 2011 G Straube I Johnston I Johnston First and incomplete Draft
B August 2011 G Straube I Johnston I Johnston Second Issue
This document is issued for the party which commissioned it We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned document being relied upon by any other party, or being used project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission which used for any other purpose. is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties
This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it.
Mott MacDonald, Stoneham Place, Stoneham Lane, Southampton SO50 9NW, United Kingdom T +44(0) 23 8062 8800 F +44(0) 23 8062 8801, W www.mottmac.com
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Content
Chapter Title Page
1. Introduction 1
2. Forecast Networks 2 2.1 Highway Do-Minimum Improvements ______2 2.2 Highway Do-Something Network Background______3 2.3 Highway Do-Something Network Elements______4 2.4 Public Transport Network Assumptions ______5
3. Proposed Developments 6 3.1 Housing and Commercial Schedule______6
4. Trip Matrix Building 12 4.1 Scheme Dependent Development Assessment Approach ______12 4.2 Identification of year with unacceptable levels of service ______12 4.3 Identifying Uncertainty ______13 4.4 Traffic Growth After 2015______17 4.5 Public Transport Matrices ______18 4.6 Goods Vehicles Matrices ______19
5. Highway Forecasts 20 5.1 Variable Demand Model Input ______20 5.2 DIADEM Settings ______21
6. Forecast Traffic Flows 22
7. Sensitivity Tests 24 7.1 NTEM Version 6.2 Central Case ______24 7.2 High Growth Sensitivity Test ______26 7.3 Low Growth Sensitivity Test______26 7.4 DIADEM Lambda Parameter Sensitivity Test ______27 7.5 DIADEM Alternative Parameter Sensitivity Test ______28 7.6 Base Year Matrix Estimation Test ______29 7.7 Heavy Goods Vehicle Adjustment Test ______33
8. Summary 35
Appendices 36 Appendix A. Core Strategy Growth Figures Comparison______37
Tables Table 3.1: Housing Schedule ______7 Table 3.2: Commercial Developments (m2) ______10 Table 4.1: Trip Rates______12
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Table 4.2: Uncertainty Log Housing ______14 Table 4.3: Uncertainty Log Commercial ______16 Table 4.4: TEMPRO 6.2 Factors 2010-2015 ______17 Table 4.5: Core Strategy Growth ______18 Table 4.6: Public Transport Forecast Factors______18 Table 4.7: Goods Vehicle Forecast Factors ______19 Table 5.1: DIADEM parameters ______20 Table 5.2: Generalised Cost Coefficients ______21 Table 7.1: TEMPRO 6.2 Factors 2015-2030 ______24 Table 7.2: NTEM v6.2 Central Case – Flow Results ______24 Table 7.3: High Growth Flow Results ______26 Table 7.4: Low Growth Flow Results ______27 Table 7.5: DIADEM Parameters – Lambda Sensitivity ______27 Table 7.6: DIADEM Lambda Test –Flow Results ______28 Table 7.7: DIADEM Parameters – outside recommended WebTAG range ______28 Table 7.8: DIADEM Parameter Test – Flow Results______29 Table 7.9: AM Peak 2005 Validation Results ______30 Table 7.10: Interpeak 2005 Validation Results ______31 Table 7.11: PM Peak 2005 Validation Results ______32 Table 7.12: 2005 Matrix Estimation Test – Flow Results ______33 Table 7.13: HGV Test – Flow Results______34
Figures Figure 2.1: Do-Minimum Highway Network Elements ______3 Figure 2.2: East-West Link Elements______4 Figure 3.1: Development Locations ______6 Figure 6.1: AADT Forecast Traffic Flows ______23 Figure 7.1: AADT Forecast Traffic Flows – NTEM Version 6.2 Central Case ______25
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1. Introduction
In February 2011, the Camborne Pool Redruth Transport Package was promoted to the Development Pool following a successful Expression of Interest in January 2011. A Best and Final Funding Bid (BAFFB) will be submitted to the Department for Transport (DfT) by 09 September 2011.
The project received programme entry in 2008. Funding is now being sought for a project with a reduced scope, and the traffic and economic assessments are being updated to meet the requirements of Value for Money Guidance issued by the DfT in May 2011.
The Forecasting Report is part of the Best and Final Funding Bid submission and is based on the validated highway and public transport models described in the Validation Report and the demand model parameters described in the Demand Model Report.
This Forecast Report describes the methodology and forecasts for the years 2015 and 2030. Chapter 2 describes the network elements for the Do-Minimum and Do Something scenarios and Chapters 3 and 4 provide details about the forecast matrix building approaches.
The assignment procedure is described in Chapter 5 and the forecast results and flows are shown in Chapter 6. The set up and flow results of several sensitivity tests is described in Chapter 7.
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2. Forecast Networks
2.1 Highway Do-Minimum Improvements
In summer 2010 junction improvements were undertaken to East Hill signal junction increasing storage capacity for the right turning lanes on three approaches. In order to incorporate this into the Do-Minimum forecast network the layout changes provided by Cornwall Council in drawing WHV258300AD-8-147 were tested using LinSig models for AM and PM peak. These models had been validated against observed February 2010 flows and the junction layout at that time. The additional capacity achieved from the improvements was incorporated into the SATURN model by adjusting the saturation flows for these approaches. These saturation flows were then used in the forecast models.
Other network improvements are proposed to take place by 2013. These include:
• Junction upgrades at A30 Junctions for Avers, Treswithian and Tolvaddon.
• Extension to Industrial Access Road in Tolvaddon Business Park
• Signalisation of Druid’s Road/Wilson Way priority junction
• Signalisation of access road for Tuckingmill Development
• Dolcoath Development Link
All these elements were included into the Do-Minimum SATURN forecast models, and the locations are shown in Figure 2.1.
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Figure 2.1: Do-Minimum Highway Network Elements
2.2 Highway Do-Something Network Background
The proposed East West Road Link has been reviewed during 2010 and 2011 to identify the critical elements which are essential to allow regeneration to continue in the Camborne Pool Redruth area. Not all elements included in the planning application were identified as essential in order to accommodate the proposed developments.
Based on these results new designs of the proposed improvements for the Do-Something scenario were prepared and provided by Cornwall Council. The SATURN model was adjusted accordingly. Figure 2.2 shows the new East-West Link elements.
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Figure 2.2: East-West Link Elements
2.3 Highway Do-Something Network Elements
The proposed new East-West Link is a single carriageway on the alignment shown in red.
The Barncoose Link opened in 2007, and the Dolcoath Link will be built as part of new development, which does not depend on the East-West Link being built.
Tuckingmill Urban Village Link is part of the connection of the new development to the East-West Link. This will be funded from developer contributions.
Additionally, the traffic signals are proposed to be removed at Druid’s Road/Agar Road and will be replaced with a priority junction.
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2.4 Public Transport Network Assumptions
The updated package does not include public transport improvements, but public transport will benefit from reductions in congestion along the A3047. The forecast public transport network, bus routes and timetables are assumed to remain the same as in the validated 2010 VISUM network.
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3. Proposed Developments
3.1 Housing and Commercial Schedule
Information on future housing and employment development was provided by Cornwall Council in conjunction with the Urban Regeneration Company (URC) in June 2011. This information was provided for 2011 until 2030. Table 3.1 and 3.2 show the details of the development schedules for 2015 and 2030. The locations of major developments are shown in Figure 3.1.
Figure 3.1: Development Locations
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Table 3.1: Housing Schedule
2015 2030
Camborne Boilerworks 75 575 Trevu Rd 55 75 Dolcoath (CompAir) site 188 390 Tuckingmill H6 & H7 69 389 Lower Rosewarne 0 80 Parc-An-Tansys 0 76 Gladys Holman House 11 11 Havelock, Roskear 13 13 Treswithian Farm 5 5 North Parade 13 26 Tyre Depot, adj TA Centre, Roskear 13 25 Lidl, North Roskear Road 0 20 Higher Pengegon 0 26 Former Mine Blgs, South Roskear Tce 0 35 Vean Road Works 0 10 Former Sausage Skin Factory, Pengegon 25 25 Park Holly, Treswithian 0 23 Camborne Car Centre, College Street 6 6 Forge Industrial Park 0 18 Former Trevithick School 0 21 Off Stray Park Road and Park Lane 0 15 Off Tolgarrick Road, Tuckingmill 0 15 R/O Meneth Road, Camborne 8 8 Camborne Forge, Trevu Road, Camborne 7 7
Pool and Illogan Dudnance Lane Framework 0 150 TRIP (East Hill Gateway) 28 28 TRIP (Trevenson Park N) 92 122 TRIP (Trevenson Park South) 262 301 TRIP (Heartlands) 20 20 Tolgarrick Park (Gas Lane) 0 20 Barncoose Terrace (Crembling Well) 10 10 23 & 23A Fore Street, Pool 11 11 Barncoose Terrace (Front) 28 47 Wkyo Ind Distribution, Carn Brea Lane 0 7 Basset Arms, Pool 8 8
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Carn Brea Leisure Centre 0 25 Trevenson Road frontage 0 30 Off Station Road, Pool 0 20 Richards Lane/ Merritts Hill. Illogan 0 8 Off Bridge Road, Illogan 0 10 Bassett Road, Illogan 0 8 14 Church Road, Pool 5 5 Lamorna House Vet' Centre, East Hill 14 14
Redruth Avers 92 92 Sandy Lane (Wilkinson Gardens) 84 84 43 Clinton Road 5 5 24 Green Lane 5 5 89 Clinton Road 5 5 Land adjoining Colaine 13 13 12 Fore Street 0 11 Adj Gwenryan, Park Road 0 10 Trevingey Farmhouse, Redruth 8 8 Parc Clies, Trevingey Road 5 5 21 Foundry Row 6 6 Charles Andrew Clinic 62 62 Redruth Brewery 0 48 Penventon 0 91 Pednandrea Yard 7 7 Pednandrea Yard and Stores 9 9 Raymond Road, off Sandy Lane (infill) 9 39 60 East End 6 6 Fairfield 14 14 Off South Gate Street 28 28 Westcliffe, Basset Street 6 13 1 Station Hill & 5/6 Penryn Street 10 10 Drump Road Timber Store 5 15 Former Redruth Grammar School 0 40 Fair Meadow 0 14 Redruth Rugby Ground 0 87 The Paddocks, Treleigh 0 24 Field off Drump Road, Redruth 10 23 Builders Yard, Bucketts Hill 16 24 Derelict land north of Pengover Parc 10 10 Fmr Flowerpot Chapel/ Belmont Gardens 0 20 Flying Start Building, Drump Road 0 21 Adj Redruth Albany and Cricket Ground 0 48 3 Higher Fore Street, Redruth 7 7 Land To The Rear Of 6 Coach Lane 8 8 291073/ITD/ITW/5/B August 2011 P:\Southampton\ITW\Projects\291073 cpr 2011\wp\CPR_BAFFB_ForecastReport_revB.doc 8
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Adj To Feldspar, Plain An Gwarry, Redr' 5 5
Sites of 4 units or less (with outline permission) 32 32 Sites of 4 units or less (with Full permission or uc) 282 282 Urban Sites Total 1715 3969 Camborne windfall 0 150 Pool and Illogan windfall 0 100 Redruth windfall 0 150 Potential Urban Windfall Total 0 400 TOTAL URBAN (including windfall projections) 1715 4369 Treswithian (North) 0 1588 Killivose 0 434 Tolvaddon and Park Bottom (East) 0 2064 Tolgus 0 804 Urban Extension Sites Total 0 4890 TOTAL URBAN AND URBAN EXTENSION 1715 9259 Source: Cornwall Council
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Table 3.2: Commercial Developments (m2)
Floorspace (sqm - gross external) Total Total Re- Addi- 2015 2030 Built locations tional DLIP (Adjacent to East Hill Junction) B1 7,000 - 7,000 - 7,000 DLIP (West of Dudnance Lane) D1/D2/Sui-G 27,000 1,500 25,500 - 25,500 DLIP (West of Dudnance Lane) - Mine 10,500 10,500 10,500 DLIP (East of Dudnance Lane) Mixed/Office 9,210 4,605 4,605 - 4,605 DLIP (East of Dudnance Lane) C1 4,000 - 4,000 - 4,000 DLIP (East of Dudnance Lane) A3 (A1/A3) 1,500 - 1,500 - 1,500 SUB TOTAL (DLIP) 59,210 6,105 42,605 10,500 53,105 TRIP - East Hill Gateway (Parcel 1a) B1 2,100 2,100 - - - TRIP - East Hill Gateway (Parcel 1a) C1 7,500 - 7,500 7,500 7,500 TRIP - East Hill Gateway (Parcel 1b) B1 2,030 1,353 677 677 677 TRIP - East Hill Gateway (Parcel 1d) B1 2,300 - 2,300 2,300 2,300 TRIP - Trevenson Park West (Parcel 2) B1 5,690 - 5,690 2,000 5,690 TRIP - Trevenson Park West (Parcel 2) B1 3,380 - 3,380 1,000 3,380 TRIP - Pool Innovation Centre (Parcel 3) B1 3,465 - 3,465 2,465 2,465 TRIP - Trevenson Park (Parcel 4) B1 1,500 - 1,500 1,500 1,500 TRIP - Trevenson Park South (Parcel 5) B1 880 - 880 880 880 TRIP - Heartlands Park East & West (Parcel B1 4,400 - 4,400 - 4,400 6a) TRIP - Heartlands Park East & West (Parcel D1/D2 840 - 840 - 840 6b) TRIP - Heartlands (Parcel 7) D1/D2 4,672 - 4,672 4,672 4,672 SUB TOTAL (TRIP) 38,757 3,453 35,304 22,994 34,304 Tolvaddon Energy Park (Priority Sites) B1a/b 2,400 - 2,400 2,400 2,400 Tolvaddon Energy Park (Masterplan - excl. B1a/b 7,000 - 7,000 - 7,000 WPD) Redruth Corridor B1a/b 3,000 - 3,000 - 3,000 Dolcoath / CompAir (Camborne) B1a/b 4,812 1,000 3,812 3,812 3,812 Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 9 B1a/b 1,210 - 1,210 - - Camborne West (North) B1a/b 2,000 - 2,000 - 2,000 Camborne West (South) B1a/b 1,000 - 1,000 - 1,000 Tolgus B1a/b 2,000 - 2,000 - 2,000 Barncoose Ind Est. - Bob Pepper (Unit 1) B1a/b 4,111 2,353 1,758 1,758 1,758 Cardrew Ind Est - Apex site B1a/b 1,775 - 1,775 1,775 1,775 Grammar School B1a/b 100 - 100 - -
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Trevu Road B1a/b 215 - 215 215 215 Redruth Hospital B1a/b 288 - 288 - - SUB TOTAL (OTHER OFFICE) 29,911 3,353 26,558 9,960 24,960 Barncoose Ind Est. - Kerrier B1c/B2/B8 3,000 - 3,000 - 3,000 Barncoose Ind Est. - Gemini B1c/B2/B8 1,000 1,000 - - - Barncoose Ind Est. - NHS Food Project B1c/B2/B8 2,700 - 2,700 - - Barncoose Ind Est. - Midas B1c/B2/B8 4,943 - 4,943 - - Barncoose Ind Est. - Bob Pepper (Units 2-8) B1c/B2/B8 3,249 1,459 1,790 790 790 Barncoose Ind Est. - Bob Pepper (9) B1c/B2/B8 935 - 935 935 935 Cardrew B1c/B2/B8 7,000 - 7,000 7,000 7,000 Tolvaddon Energy Park (Priority Sites)** B1c/B2/B8 2,000 - 2,000 2,000 2,000 Tolvaddon Energy Park (Masterplan - excl. B1c/B2/B8 12,000 - 12,000 5,000 12,000 WPD) Wheal Harmony (Redruth) B1c/B2/B8 15,000 8,000 7,000 - 7,000 Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 1 B1c/B2/B8 2,934 - 2,934 2,934 2,934 Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 2 B1c/B2/B8 1,100 - 1,100 1,100 1,100 Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 3 & 4 B1c/B2/B8 2,230 - 2,230 - - Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 5 B1c/B2/B8 1,510 - 1,510 1,510 1,510 Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 6 B1c/B2/B8 2,000 - 2,000 2,000 2,000 Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 7 B1c/B2/B8 1,320 - 1,320 1,320 1,320 Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 8 B1c/B2/B8 1,276 - 1,276 1,276 1,276 Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 9** B1c/B2/B8 1,210 - 1,210 - - Trevu Road B1c/B2/B8 775 - 775 775 775 Dolcoath / CompAir (Camborne) B1c/B2/B8 2,467 - 2,467 2,467 2,467 Chapel Road, Tuckingmill (Phase 1) B1c/B2/B8 1,000 - 1,000 1,000 1,000 Camborne West (North) B1c/B2/B8 2,000 - 2,000 - 2,000 Camborne West (South) B1c/B2/B8 2,000 - 2,000 - 2,000 Tolgus B1c/B2/B8 2,000 - 2,000 - 2,000 Grammar School B1c/B2/B8 3,000 - 3,000 3,000 3,000 SUB TOTAL (OTHER INDUSTRIAL) 78,649 10,459 68,190 33,107 56,107 Redruth Corridor D1/D2 3,000 - 3,000 - 3,000 SUB TOTAL (OTHER LEISURE) 3,000 - 3,000 - 3,000 First Bus Engineering Works A1 3,500 - 3,500 - 3,500 Redruth Corridor A1 3,500 - 3,500 - 3,500 Pool Shopping Park A1 14,000 - 14,000 8,000 14,000
SUB TOTAL (OTHER RETAIL) 21,000 - 21,000 8,000 21,000 Source: Cornwall Council
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4. Trip Matrix Building
4.1 Scheme Dependent Development Assessment Approach
The method of identifying local development which was agreed with DfT at Programme Entry was used for building forecast matrices. This included:
• Identify local development aspirations (housing and employment) for each year up to 2030
• Identify in which year unacceptable levels of service occur at East Hill junction as a result of forecast development, which would result in the Highways Agency or local authority preventing further development
• Allow all forecast local development in both Do Minimum and Do Something up to this year
• After this year, forecasts for both Do Minimum and Do Something use NTEM without allocation of growth to particular local sites
4.2 Identification of year with unacceptable levels of service
Trip matrices were built for 2013 using the proposed developments and applying the trip rates shown in Table 4.1. The trip rates were extracted from the TRICS Database. Matrices were built for AM, IP and PM peak.
Table 4.1: Trip Rates
Use Development Type Class Unit AM IP PM IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT Private housing C3 per dwelling 0.163 0.438 0.175 0.174 0.403 0.234 Affordable housing C3 per dwelling 0.098 0.198 0.150 0.118 0.240 0.150 Office B1 100sqm 1.482 0.175 0.293 0.282 0.151 1.271 Mixed Leisure D1/D2 100sqm 0.324 0.126 0.411 0.521 0.499 0.452 No of C1 Hotel Bedrooms 0.155 0.216 0.113 0.116 0.213 0.150 Restaurant A3 100sqm 0.000 0.000 0.725 0.267 2.864 1.837 Office/Business Park B1a/b 100sqm 1.464 0.225 0.277 0.270 0.184 1.242 B1c/B2/ Mixed Commercial B8 100sqm 0.691 0.109 0.163 0.153 0.091 0.608 Retail Store A1 100sqm 0.616 0.435 1.542 1.505 0.659 0.628 Mine B2 per employee 0.141 0.031 0.036 0.033 0.015 0.119 Source: Trics Database
The matrices were assigned to the Do-Minimum forecast networks for each time period for 2013. The assignment results were compared to the base year assignments and levels of delay assessed.
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East Hill junction showed long queues and delay in February and March 2010 as reported in the Existing Data and Traffic Survey Report. However, the junction improvements made during summer 2010 provided additional capacity to accommodate more local trips without increasing delays.
The SATURN 2013 forecast flows for East Hill junction were input to LinSig models for the AM and PM peak. These showed that in the AM peak the East Hill approach is over capacity and shows an average delay of 4 minutes per vehicle. All other approaches operate close to the practical capacity. The PM peak optimised LinSig results show that Dudnance Lane is at capacity and delays of 1.5 minutes per vehicle are forecast, and the East Hill approach is over capacity with an average delay of 3 minutes per vehicle.
These levels of delay and queuing are similar to those observed during the 2010 base validation. However, at a meeting with DfT in July 2011, we were advised that this level of delay was insufficient for DfT to agree that development after 2013 is scheme-dependent.
Trip matrices were therefore built for 2015 using the local development assumptions and the SATURN forecast flows re-input to LinSig This resulted in 7 minutes average delay per vehicle in the AM peak at the East Hill approach and during the PM peak 6 minutes average delay for the East Hill approach and two minutes for Dudnance Lane.
It was therefore concluded that no local development beyond 2015 can be accommodated by the current highway network and still enable acceptable levels of service. Therefore the matrix building will only include the location of local development trips until 2015.
4.3 Identifying Uncertainty
Based on the WebTAG guidance (unit 3.15.5) about the treatment of uncertainty in forecasting, all proposed developments provided by Cornwall Council until 2015, were classified by Cornwall Council into four categories. Table 4.2 shows the assessment results.
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Table 4.2: Uncertainty Log Housing
Location Status 2015 Probability Camborne Boilerworks allocation (part pp) 149 Near Certain Trevu Rd allocation (pp) 55 Near Certain Dolcoath (CompAir) site allocation (pp) 229 Near Certain Tuckingmill H6 & H7 allocations 109 More than likely Lower Rosewarne allocation 16 Reasonably foreseeable Parc-An-Tansys allocation 15 Reasonably foreseeable Gladys Holman House SHLAA (pp & uc) 11 Near Certain Havelock, Roskear SHLAA (pp) 13 Near Certain Treswithian Farm SHLAA (pp) 5 Near Certain North Parade SHLAA (pp) 26 Near Certain Tyre Depot, adj TA Centre, Roskear SHLAA (pp) 25 Near Certain Lidl, North Roskear Road SHLAA 4 Hypothetical Higher Pengegon SHLAA 6 Reasonably foreseeable Former Mine Blgs, South Roskear Tce SHLAA 7 Hypothetical Former Sausage Skin Factory, Pengegon SHLAA 25 Reasonably foreseeable Park Holly, Treswithian SHLAA 5 Reasonably foreseeable Camborne Car Centre, College Street SHLAA (pp) 6 Near Certain Forge Industrial Park SHLAA 4 Reasonably foreseeable Former Trevithick School SHLAA 5 Hypothetical Off Stray Park Road and Park Lane SHLAA 3 Hypothetical Off Tolgarrick Road, Tuckingmill SHLAA 5 Hypothetical R/O Meneth Road, Camborne pp 8 Near Certain Camborne Forge, Trevu Road, Camborne pp 7 Near Certain
Pool and Illogan Dudnance Lane Framework Masterplan 15 More than likely TRIP (East Hill Gateway) Masterplan (pp) 28 Near Certain TRIP (Trevenson Park N) Masterplan (pp) 122 Near Certain TRIP (Trevenson Park South) Masterplan (pp) 301 Near Certain TRIP (Heartlands) Masterplan (pp) 20 Near Certain Tolgarrick Park (Gas Lane) Masterplan 4 More than likely Barncoose Terrace (Crembling Well) SHLAA (pp uc) 10 Near Certain 23 & 23A Fore Street, Pool SHLAA (pp) 11 Near Certain Barncoose Terrace (Front) SHLAA (pp) 38 Near Certain Basset Arms, Pool SHLAA (part pp) 8 Near Certain Carn Brea Leisure Centre SHLAA 5 Hypothetical Off Station Road, Pool SHLAA 4 Hypothetical Richards Lane/ Merritts Hill. Illogan SHLAA (pp pending) 2 Near Certain Off Bridge Road, Illogan SHLAA 2 Hypothetical
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Bassett Road, Illogan SHLAA (pp pending) 2 More than likely 14 Church Road, Pool pp 5 Near Certain Lamorna House Vet' Centre, East Hill pp 14 Near Certain
Redruth Avers allocation (pp) 92 Near Certain Sandy Lane (Wilkinson Gardens) allocation (pp) 84 Near Certain 43 Clinton Road SHLAA (pp uc) 5 Near Certain 24 Green Lane SHLAA (pp uc) 5 Near Certain 89 Clinton Road SHLAA (pp uc) 5 Near Certain Land adjoining Colaine SHLAA (pp) 13 Near Certain 12 Fore Street SHLAA (pp) 3 Near Certain Adj Gwenryan, Park Road SHLAA (pp) 2 Near Certain Trevingey Farmhouse, Redruth SHLAA (pp now expired) 8 Near Certain Parc Clies, Trevingey Road SHLAA (pp) 5 Near Certain 21 Foundry Row SHLAA (pp) 6 Near Certain Charles Andrew Clinic pp 62 Near Certain Redruth Brewery SHLAA (masterplan) 5 Near Certain Pednandrea Yard SHLAA (pp) 7 Near Certain Pednandrea Yard and Stores SHLAA (pp) 9 Near Certain Raymond Road, off Sandy Lane (infill) SHLAA (part pp) 15 Near Certain 60 East End SHLAA (pp) 6 Near Certain Fairfield SHLAA (pp) 14 Near Certain Off South Gate Street SHLAA (pp) 28 Near Certain Westcliffe, Basset Street SHLAA (pp) 9 Near Certain 1 Station Hill & 5/6 Penryn Street SHLAA (pp) 10 Near Certain Drump Road Timber Store SHLAA (part pp) 10 Near Certain Former Redruth Grammar School SHLAA 8 Hypothetical Fair Meadow SHLAA (pp) 3 Hypothetical Redruth Rugby Ground SHLAA 17 Hypothetical The Paddocks, Treleigh SHLAA 5 Hypothetical Field off Drump Road, Redruth SHLAA (pp) 23 Near Certain Builders Yard, Bucketts Hill SHLAA 24 Hypothetical Derelict land north of Pengover Parc SHLAA (pp) 10 Near Certain Fmr Flowerpot Chapel/ Belmont Gardens SHLAA 4 Hypothetical Flying Start Building, Drump Road SHLAA 4 More than likely Adj Redruth Albany and Cricket Ground SHLAA 10 Hypothetical 3 Higher Fore Street, Redruth pp 7 Near Certain Land To The Rear Of 6 Coach Lane pp 8 Near Certain Adj To Feldspar, Plain An Gwarry, Redr' pp 5 Near Certain Treswithian (North) Urban Extension (25ha) 70 Reasonably foreseeable Killivose Urban Extension 24 Reasonably foreseeable Tolvaddon and Park Bottom (East) Urban Extension 137 Reasonably foreseeable Tolgus Urban Extension 53 Reasonably foreseeable Source: Cornwall Council 291073/ITD/ITW/5/B August 2011 P:\Southampton\ITW\Projects\291073 cpr 2011\wp\CPR_BAFFB_ForecastReport_revB.doc 15
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Table 4.3: Uncertainty Log Commercial Development Total Location Type 2015 Probability DLIP (Adjacent to East Hill Junction) B1 700 More than likely DLIP (West of Dudnance Lane) D1/D2/Sui-G 2,550 More than likely DLIP (West of Dudnance Lane) - Mine 10,500 More than likely DLIP (East of Dudnance Lane) Mixed/Office 461 More than likely DLIP (East of Dudnance Lane) C1 400 More than likely DLIP (East of Dudnance Lane) A3 (A1/A3) 150 More than likely SUB TOTAL (DLIP) 14,761 TRIP - East Hill Gateway (Parcel 1a) C1 7,500 More than likely TRIP - East Hill Gateway (Parcel 1b) B1 677 More than likely TRIP - East Hill Gateway (Parcel 1d) B1 2,300 More than likely TRIP - Trevenson Park West (Parcel 2) B1 2,369 More than likely TRIP - Trevenson Park West (Parcel 2) B1 1,238 More than likely TRIP - Pool Innovation Centre (Parcel 3) B1 2,465 Near Certain TRIP - Trevenson Park (Parcel 4) B1 1,500 More than likely TRIP - Trevenson Park South (Parcel 5) B1 880 More than likely TRIP - Heartlands Park East & West (Parcel 6a) B1 440 More than likely TRIP - Heartlands Park East & West (Parcel 6b) D1/D2 84 More than likely TRIP - Heartlands (Parcel 7) D1/D2 4,672 Near Certain SUB TOTAL (TRIP) 24,125 Tolvaddon Energy Park (Priority Sites) B1a/b 2,400 Near certain Tolvaddon Energy Park (Masterplan - excl. WPD) B1a/b 700 More than likely Dolcoath / CompAir (Camborne) B1a/b 3,812 Near certain Barncoose Ind Est. - Bob Pepper (Unit 1) B1a/b 1,758 Near certain Trevu Road B1a/b 215 Near certain SUB TOTAL (OTHER OFFICE) 8,885 Barncoose Ind Est. - Bob Pepper (Units 2-8) B1c/B2/B8 790 Near certain Barncoose Ind Est. - Bob Pepper (9) B1c/B2/B8 935 Near certain Tolvaddon Energy Park (Priority Sites)** B1c/B2/B8 2,000 Near certain Tolvaddon Energy Park (Masterplan - excl. WPD) B1c/B2/B8 5,700 More than likely Wheal Harmony (Redruth) B1c/B2/B8 700 More than likely Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 1 B1c/B2/B8 2,934 Near certain Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 2 B1c/B2/B8 1,100 Near certain Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 5 B1c/B2/B8 1,510 Near certain Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 6 B1c/B2/B8 2,000 More than likely Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 7 B1c/B2/B8 1,320 Near certain Treleigh Industrial Est. - Plot 8 B1c/B2/B8 1,276 Near certain Trevu Road B1c/B2/B8 775 Near certain Dolcoath / CompAir (Camborne) B1c/B2/B8 2,467 More than likely Chapel Road, Tuckingmill (Phase 1) B1c/B2/B8 1,000 More than likely Camborne West (North) B1c/B2/B8 200 Reasonably foreseeable Camborne West (South) B1c/B2/B8 200 Reasonably foreseeable
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Tolgus B1c/B2/B8 200 Reasonably foreseeable Grammar School B1c/B2/B8 3,000 Reasonably foreseeable SUB TOTAL (OTHER INDUSTRIAL) 28,107 Redruth Corridor D1/D2 300 Reasonably foreseeable SUB TOTAL (OTHER LEISURE) 300 First Bus Engineering Works A1 350 Reasonably foreseeable Redruth Corridor A1 350 Reasonably foreseeable Pool Shopping Park A1 8,600 Reasonably foreseeable SUB TOTAL (OTHER RETAIL) 9,300 Source: Cornwall Council
All the developments that are considered ‘near certain’ or ‘more than likely’ were then included in building a ‘core’ development matrix for 2015 AM, IP and PM peak. This matrix was then constrained to the car growth forecast in TEMPRO v6.2. The total car matrix growth applied between 2010 and 2015 is shown in the table below.
Table 4.4: TEMPRO 6.2 Factors 2010-2015 2010 to 2015 TEMPRO AM Commuting 1.054 Employers Business 1.051 Other 1.046 Interpeak Commuting 1.051 Employers Business 1.050 Other 1.053 PM Commuting 1.051 Employers Business 1.052 Other 1.052 Source: TEMPRO 6.2
4.4 Traffic Growth After 2015
Cornwall Council is developing a Core Strategy to establish the context for future growth and development within Cornwall, which will be the lead document in Cornwall’s Local Development Framework. The Core Strategy will determine a long term growth and distribution strategy for Cornwall up to 2030, as well as provide key policies for the determination of planning applications.
In order to take forward the Core Strategy local views were collected through consultation and work on Town Frameworks. Appendix A to this Forecast Report, sets out the allocation of housing growth up to 2030 for each area of Cornwall based on each element of consultation undertaken to date. The total expected increase in the number of houses in Cornwall based on the results of consulation is 46,950 – 52,450, of which 6,950 would be within the Camborne, Pool, Illogan & Redruth area.
Tempro v6.2 assumes an increase in the number of households in Cornwall of 48,702 between 2010 and 2030. This is consistent with the proposed Core Strategy figures. However, the Tempro v6.2 forecast is only 4,404 additional households in the Camborne/Redruth area which is significantly lower than the Core
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Strategy sets out for the Camborne, Pool, Illogan & Redruth Framework which will form the basis of planning policies and future development in the local area. The Framework assumes completion of about 348 new houses per annum up to 2030. Despite the recent and prolonged downturn in the housing market, actual completions over the last 5 years have averaged about 264 per annum.
Tempro v6.2 assumes that only 1,373 new jobs will be created in the Camborne/Redruth area between 2010 and 2030. The potential jobs from the commercial developments summarised in Table 3.2 are about 5,800 in the period to 2030. Applying the TEMPRO v6.2 relationships between households, working age population and jobs results in a forecast of an additional 2,824 new jobs between 2010 and 2030.
In order to estimate traffic growth after 2015, the TEMPRO v6.2 alternative assumptions option was used with the forecast of houses from the Camborne, Pool, Illogan & Redruth Framework, and the forecast of jobs which follows from the Tempro v6.2 relationships between households, working age population and jobs. Table 4.5 shows the calculated growth factors.
Table 4.5: Core Strategy Growth 2015 to 2030 Tempro alternative assumptions AM Commuting 1.159 Employers Business 1.152 Other 1.281 Interpeak Commuting 1.171 Employers Business 1.157 Other 1.306 PM Commuting 1.160 Employers Business 1.157 Other 1.260
4.5 Public Transport Matrices
Forecast matrices for public transport were based on the 2010 base year matrices. TEMPRO 6.2 factors were calculated for ‘car available’ and ‘no car available’. These factors are shown in Table 4.6 below.
Table 4.6: Public Transport Forecast Factors
Employer Business Other Commuting From To No Car With Car No Car With Car No Car With Car 2010 2015 0.935 1.081 0.957 1.047 0.931 1.070 2015 2030 0.912 1.143 1.135 1.239 0.941 1.094
Source: TEMPRO 6.2
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4.6 Goods Vehicles Matrices
Forecast LGV employers business and HGV matrices were created by applying the relevant NTM 2009 data factors for the South West region. These factors are shown in Table 4.7.
Table 4.7: Goods Vehicle Forecast Factors LGV HGV 2010-2015 1.109 1.050 2015-2030 1.401 1.084
Source: NTM 2009
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5. Highway Forecasts
5.1 Variable Demand Model Input
Variable demand modelling has been carried out with separate DIADEM runs for each time period for the 2015 and 2030 assignments. The DIADEM assessments have been set up to model the re-distribution and modal choice demand responses.
Variable demand has been assessed for cars, with mode choices between car and bus for those with a car available. Bus users without a car available are assumed captive to public transport. Rail users have not been included within the DIADEM runs as it is considered that the schemes being assessed will not impact on rail trips. LGVs and HGVs have been assumed to have fixed demand.
VISUM was used for the public transport assignment with bus journey costs output. The VISUM models assigned bus and rail trips to the lowest cost routes where the trip cost was equal to the perceived journey time. The perceived journey time was calculated as:
PJT = In-vehicle time + 2*(Access Time + Egress Time + Walking Time) + 2.5* (Origin Wait Time + Transfer Wait Time) + 10min *No of Transfers
Future year highway networks and vehicle matrices were input to DIADEM along with VISUM output bus journey costs and passenger matrices. DIADEM skims the reference highway cost from the base validated year assignments. DIADEM starts by comparing the initial highway and public transport costs and then uses the demand response parameters to create new highway and public transport matrices. The highway matrices are reassigned within SATURN and new highway costs calculated. This continues until specified convergence criteria are met.
The DIADEM model parameters for each journey purpose (i.e. commuting, employers business, other) are shown in Table 5.1. These are the results of the realism testing reported in the Demand Model Report.
Table 5.1: DIADEM parameters Commute Employer’s business Other Destination Choice - Cars 0.113 0.074 0.063 Destination Choice - PT 0.033 0.039 0.035 Mode Choice 0.68 0.59 0.27
The highway trip costs are made up of time and distance impacts. The pence per minute (PPM) and pence per km (PPK) vary by journey purpose. The coefficients from the base and forecast year highway assignment SATURN PPK and PPM values are shown in Table 5.2, along with the equivalent values used for the forecast assignments. In all cases the values have been normalised against the PPM.
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Table 5.2: Generalised Cost Coefficients
Employers Commuting Business Other LGV HGV PPM 1 1 1 1 1 2015 AM PPK 0.5 0.22 0.38 0.63 2.23 PPM 1 1 1 1 1 2015 IP PPK 0.5 0.23 0.37 0.63 2.23 PPM 1 1 1 1 1 2015 PM PPK 0.51 0.23 0.36 0.63 2.23 PPM 1 1 1 1 1 2030 AM PPK 0.29 0.15 0.22 0.48 1.82 PPM 1 1 1 1 1 2030 IP PPK 0.29 0.16 0.22 0.48 1.82 PPM 1 1 1 1 1 2030 PM PPK 0.3 0.16 0.21 0.48 1.82
Vehicle occupancy factors for the highway trips have been calculated for each journey purpose using the Roadside Interview data to convert highway vehicle trips to person trips to be compatible with the public transport matrices. The vehicle occupancy factor for commuting and employers business trips was 1.2 and for other trips was 1.6.
5.2 DIADEM Settings
The following DIADEM convergence settings have been used. These have been set following discussion with DIADEM technical support.
• Initial step length: 0.7 – 0.9
• Maximum iterations: 20
• Maximum flow change: 0.001
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6. Forecast Traffic Flows
Figure 6.1 below shows the AADT flow results for the Highway forecast for 2015 and 2030 for the scenarios without (Do Minimum) and with (Do Something) the East-West Link in place.
From the results it can be seen that flows along the A3047 are forecast to increase by 2015 without the scheme. This takes account of the summer 2010 improvements at the East Hill junction. Between 2015 and 2030, high levels of congestion result in only a small forecast growth in traffic.
With the scheme in place in both forecast years a traffic flow reduction can be achieved at East Hill as traffic re-routes along the new East-West Link. At East Hill even in 2030 traffic is forecast below the 2010 traffic levels. The daily vehicles trips along the new link road are forecast with 5,600 in 2015 growing to 7,900 in 2030.
Compared to the Do Minimum scenario traffic levels along the A3047 east of the East Hill junction and parallel to the new Link are forecast to increase with the East-West Link in place. This reflects the removal of right turning traffic at the East Hill junction with completion of the East-West Link. This right turning traffic currently blocks straight ahead traffic and reduces the capacity for other traffic on A3047.
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7. Sensitivity Tests
7.1 NTEM Version 6.2 Central Case
In order to build 2030 forecast matrices in exact correspondence to TEMPRO v6.2, TEMPRO factors for the average of former Carrick and Kerrier Districts were applied to the core development matrix for 2015. TEMPRO version 6.2 factors were extracted for commuting, employers business and other purposes. The TEMPRO factors from 2015 to 2030 are shown in Table 7.1. This scenario results in significantly lower growth than set out in the Cornwall Core Strategy allocations.
Table 7.1: TEMPRO 6.2 Factors 2015-2030 2015 TEMPRO to 2030 TEMPRO AM Commuting 1.046 Employers Business 1.044 Other 1.145 Interpeak Commuting 1.059 Employers Business 1.053 Other 1.165 PM Commuting 1.047 Employers Business 1.048 Other 1.123 Source: TEMPRO 6.2
.
Goods vehicle matrices and public transport matrices have not been amended for this sensitivity test.
Table 7.2 below shows the traffic flow along the scheme in comparison to the Core Strategy scenario and Figure 7.1 shows the full AADT flow results. Forecast flows are lower than from the Cornwall Core Strategy assumptions.
Table 7.2: NTEM v6.2 Central Case – Flow Results 2015 DM 2015 DS 2030 DM 2030 DS Core NTEM Core NTEM Core NTEM Core NTEM Strategy v6.2 Strategy v6.2 Strategy v6.2 Strategy v6.2 Pendarves Street 11,000 11,000 10,500 10,500 11,200 10,700 11,100 10,400 East-West Link (1) - - 4,600 4,600 - - 6,200 5,400
East Hill 19,900 19,900 18,400 18,400 20,900 20,200 18,900 17,800 East-West Link (2) - - 5,600 5,600 - - 7,900 6,800
Fore Street 15,000 15,000 16,200 16,200 16,500 15,500 16,800 15,800 East-West Link (3) - - 6,700 6,700 - - 8,300 7,600
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7.2 High Growth Sensitivity Test
In accordance with WebTag guidance on the treatment of uncertainty in forecasting (units 3.15.3 and 3.15.5) matrices have been prepared for a high growth assumption. This was undertaken based on the NTEM v6.2 central case matrices. To the 2015 highway reference matrices an extra 5.59% of the base matrices was added and the 2030 high growth highway matrices were increased by an extra 11.18% of the base matrices. For the bus reference matrices the 2015 had 2.25% of the base added and 2030 was increased by 6.71%. DIADEM assignments were undertaken. Table 7.3 below shows the AADT flows along the new link road and the parallel section on the A3047.
Table 7.3: High Growth Flow Results 2015 DM 2015 DS 2030 DM 2030 DS NTEM NTEM NTEM NTEM Central High Central High Central High Central High Case Growth Case Growth Case Growth Case Growth
Pendarves Street 11,000 10,900 10,500 11,300 10,700 11,100 10,400 11,200 East-West Link (1) - - 4,600 5,300 - - 5,400 6,400
East Hill 19,900 19,900 18,400 19,200 20,200 20,800 17,800 19,000 East-West Link (2) - - 5,600 6,500 - - 6,800 8,100
Fore Street 15,000 15,200 16,200 16,900 15,500 16,600 15,800 16,800 East-West Link (3) - - 6,700 7,000 - - 7,600 8,200
7.3 Low Growth Sensitivity Test
Similarly to the high growth test a low growth assumption test was undertaken in line with WebTag. This included building matrices with a reduction of trips by the same proportions of the base matrix as was added for the high growth. This was also applied to the NTEM v6.2 central case reference matrices. DIADEM assignments were undertaken. The AADT flows are shown below as comparison against the NTEM v6.2 central case results.
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Table 7.4: Low Growth Flow Results 2015 DM 2015 DS 2030 DM 2030 DS NTEM NTEM NTEM NTEM Central Low Central Low Central Low Central Low Case Growth Case Growth Case Growth Case Growth
Pendarves Street 11,000 10,700 10,500 10,300 10,700 10,200 10,400 9,900 East-West Link (1) - - 4,600 4,600 - - 5,400 5,000
East Hill 19,900 19,300 18,400 18,100 20,200 19,100 17,800 17,200 East-West Link (2) - - 5,600 5,600 - - 6,800 6,300
Fore Street 15,000 14,500 16,200 15,800 15,500 14,600 15,800 15,100 East-West Link (3) - - 6,700 6,300 - - 7,600 6,900
7.4 DIADEM Lambda Parameter Sensitivity Test
A sensitivity test was undertaken to identify the variability of the economic results based on Lambda parameters 50% greater than those in the NTEM v6.2 central case. This is in line with WebTAG unit 3.10.4 section 1.8.4. The new DIADEM parameters used for the variable demand forecasting are shown below.
Table 7.5: DIADEM Parameters – Lambda Sensitivity Commute Employer’s business Other Destination Choice - Cars 0.170 0.111 0.095 Destination Choice - PT 0.050 0.059 0.053 Mode Choice 0.68 0.59 0.67
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Table 7.6: DIADEM Lambda Test –Flow Results 2015 DM 2015 DS 2030 DM 2030 DS NTEM NTEM NTEM NTEM Central Lambda Central Lambda Central Lambda Central Lambda Case Test Case Test Case Test Case Test
Pendarves Street 11,000 11,200 10,500 10,500 10,700 10,600 10,400 10,400 East-West Link (1) - - 4,600 4,600 - - 5,400 5,400
East Hill 19,900 20,100 18,400 18,400 20,200 19,900 17,800 17,900 East-West Link (2) - - 5,600 5,500 - - 6,800 6,800
Fore Street 15,000 15,200 16,200 16,200 15,500 15,200 15,800 15,800 East-West Link (3) - - 6,700 6,700 - - 7,600 7,600
The impact of the amended lambda parameters on the daily vehicle flows is minimal compared to the NTEM v6.2 central case. The Do Minimum scenario for 2015 shows a slight increase in traffic flows along the A3047 while in 2030 a small reduction in flows is visible. The Do Something flows on a daily basis are forecast approximately same as in the NTEM v6.2 central case. The effect on scheme benefits is reported in the Economic Assessment Report.
7.5 DIADEM Alternative Parameter Sensitivity Test
The realism test described in the Demand Model Report concluded that a sensitivity test should be undertaken with DIADEM parameters that achieved all fuel cost elasticities within the required WebTAG range for each user class and timer period as well as for all day. These included a frequency response for commuting and employers business and a lambda value for car other outside the WebTAG recommended range. The parameters used for this sensitivity test are shown in the table below.
Table 7.7: DIADEM Parameters – outside recommended WebTAG range Commute Employer’s Business Other Frequency 0.05 0.05 - Destination Choice - Cars 0.113 0.074 0.045 Destination Choice - PT 0.033 0.039 0.035 Mode Choice 0.68 0.59 0.27
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Table 7.8: DIADEM Parameter Test – Flow Results 2015 DM 2015 DS 2030 DM 2030 DS NTEM NTEM NTEM NTEM Central DIADEM Central DIADEM Central DIADEM Central DIADEM Case Test Case Test Case Test Case Test
Pendarves Street 11,000 11,100 10,500 10,700 10,700 10,800 10,400 10,500 East-West Link (1) - - 4,600 4,800 - - 5,400 5,600
East Hill 19,900 20,000 18,400 18,500 20,200 20,200 17,800 18,000 East-West Link (2) - - 5,600 5,800 - - 6,800 7,000
Fore Street 15,000 15,100 16,200 16,300 15,500 15,600 15,800 15,900 East-West Link (3) - - 6,700 6,700 - - 7,600 7,600
With this different set of DIADEM parameters little difference in flow is forecasted in comparison to the NTEM v6.2 central case. In Do-Minimum and Do-Something in both forecast years flows are slightly higher compared to the NTEM v6.2 central case.
7.6 Base Year Matrix Estimation Test
As described in the Model Validation Report it was identified that during the matrix estimation process for the 2005 model validation two network zones were mistakenly allocated to the wrong sectors. This resulted in some trips not being frozen through the RSI locations as required. As the 2010 base model uses elements from the 2005 validated model it is of interest to identify the impact of this error on the scheme economic results.
Therefore, the matrix estimation process was repeated with the corrected zone allocation and correct movements through the network being frozen. The impact on the validation of the networks was assessed and the results for East Hill junction and the overall validation statistics can be seen below. The effect of the correct freezing of zones is that more traffic is assigned through East Hill.
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Table 7.9: AM Peak 2005 Validation Results Turning Movement Observed Modelled GEH Flow New GEH Flow Flow Flow Difference Modelled Difference Flows East Hill to Tolvaddon 464 529 2.9 √ 506 1.91 Road East Hill to Trevenson 464 506 1.89 √ 442 1.03 Road East Hill to Dudnance 82 69 1.53 √ 46 4.50 Lane Tolvaddon Road to 191 77 9.88 x 57 12.03 Trevenson Road Tolvaddon Road to 101 92 0.87 √ 85 1.66 Dudnance Lane Tolvaddon Road to East 194 246 3.48 √ 375 10.74 Hill Trevenson Road to 32 9 5.01 √ 18 2.75 Dudnance Lane Trevenson Road to East 399 407 0.39 √ 397 0.10 Hill Trevenson Road to 130 53 8.07 √ 31 11.03 Tolvaddon Road Dudnance Lane to East 79 52 3.39 √ 54 3.07 Hill Dudnance Lane to 153 144 0.75 √ 141 0.99 Tolvaddon Road Dudnance Lane to 47 8 7.43 √ 32 2.38 Trevenson Road
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Table 7.10: Interpeak 2005 Validation Results Turning Observed Modelled GEH Flow New GEH Flow Movement Flow Flow Difference Modelled Difference Flows East Hill to 244 279 2.16 √ 379 7.66 Tolvaddon Road East Hill to 390 470 3.88 √ 473 4.00 Trevenson Road East Hill to 100 57 4.81 √ 57 4.85 Dudnance Lane Tolvaddon Road to 172 60 10.42 x 55 10.98 Trevenson Road Tolvaddon Road to 117 98 1.81 √ 88 2.86 Dudnance Lane Tolvaddon Road to 200 265 4.26 √ 381 10.61 East Hill Trevenson Road to 74 24 7.11 √ 18 8.28 Dudnance Lane Trevenson Road to 411 470 2.83 √ 456 2.16 East Hill Trevenson Road to 162 71 8.41 √ 71 8.43 Tolvaddon Road Dudnance Lane to 105 53 5.88 √ 52 5.98 East Hill Dudnance Lane to 116 115 0.08 √ 104 1.14 Tolvaddon Road Dudnance Lane to 62 24 5.82 √ 23 6.04 Trevenson Road
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Table 7.11: PM Peak 2005 Validation Results Turning Movement Observe Modelled Flow GEH Flow New GEH Flow d Flow Difference Modelled Difference Flows East Hill to 464 529 2.9 √ 389 3.64 Tolvaddon Road East Hill to 464 506 1.89 √ 327 6.89 Trevenson Road East Hill to 82 69 1.53 √ 34 6.30 Dudnance Lane Tolvaddon Road to 191 77 9.88 x 24 16.11 Trevenson Road Tolvaddon Road to 101 92 0.87 √ 100 0.10 Dudnance Lane Tolvaddon Road to 194 246 3.48 √ 473 15.29 East Hill Trevenson Road to 32 9 5.01 √ 23 1.70 Dudnance Lane Trevenson Road to 399 407 0.39 √ 582 8.26 East Hill Trevenson Road to 130 53 8.07 √ 95 3.30 Tolvaddon Road Dudnance Lane to 79 52 3.39 √ 56 2.80 East Hill Dudnance Lane to 153 144 0.75 √ 132 1.76 Tolvaddon Road Dudnance Lane to 47 8 7.43 √ 29 2.93 Trevenson Road
In order to assess the potential impact on the subsequent modelling undertaken trip difference matrices were calculated based on the previously final validated files and the corrected ones. This trip difference matrix was factored up with Tempro growth to 2010, 2015 and 2030. The NTEM v6.2 Central Case reference forecast matrices were then adjusted accordingly.
With the adjusted matrices DIADEM variable demand modelling was repeated and the flow results along the new link road and the A3047 are shown below.
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Table 7.12: 2005 Matrix Estimation Test – Flow Results 2015 DM 2015 DS 2030 DM 2030 DS NTEM NTEM NTEM NTEM Central Central Central Central Case ME 2005 Case ME 2005 Case ME 2005 Case ME 2005
Pendarves Street 11,000 12,400 10,500 12,200 10,700 11,800 10,400 11,500 East-West Link (1) - - 4,600 5,000 - - 5,400 6,000
East Hill 19,900 21,900 18,400 20,900 20,200 21,400 17,800 19,900 East-West Link (2) - - 5,600 6,100 - - 6,800 7,500
Fore Street 15,000 15,600 16,200 16,800 15,500 16,000 15,800 16,200 East-West Link (3) - - 6,700 6,700 - - 7,600 7,600
With the corrected matrix estimation process matrix totals are between 2% and 4% greater than the NTEM v6.2 Central Case matrices. Flows along the A3047 show increases over 10% at East Hill.
However, it should be noted that during the 2010 model update, modelled traffic flows through East Hill were calibrated to 2010 counts and validation was achieved against independent data. This sensitivity does not therefore represent a more robust estimate of traffic.
7.7 Heavy Goods Vehicle Adjustment Test
The Model Validation Report describes that heavy goods vehicle observed flows along the A3047 at Barncoose Terrace were much lower than during observations in 2005. As during the validation update no adjustments were made to flows along this link the 2010 validation showed that HGV modelled flows were about twice as high as observed along Barncoose Terrace. In order to remove the additional HGV trips a select link matrix was created identifying all HGV trips along Barncoose Terrace. These trips were factored down to match the 2010 observed values. The select link matrix was then subtracted from the 2010 validation matrix while the factored matrix with the correct level of HGV trips was added. For the forecast years 2015 and 2030 a difference matrix was created by subtracting the adjusted 2010 matrix from the validation 2010 matrix. This difference matrix was then factored up with the HGV forecast factors described above. The calculated matrices were subtracted from the core scenario forecast post DIADEM matrices.
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Table 7.13: HGV Test – Flow Results 2015 DM 2015 DS 2030 DM 2030 DS NTEM NTEM NTEM NTEM Central Central Central Central Case HGV Test Case HGV Test Case HGV Test Case HGV Test
Pendarves Street 11,000 10,900 10,500 10,500 10,700 10,400 10,400 10,400 East-West Link (1) - - 4,600 4,600 - - 5,400 5,400
East Hill 19,900 19,800 18,400 18,400 20,200 19,600 17,800 17,900 East-West Link (2) - - 5,600 5,600 - - 6,800 6,800
Fore Street 15,000 14,500 16,200 15,900 15,500 14,900 15,800 15,500 East-West Link (3) - - 6,700 6,600 - - 7,600 7,500
The reduction in HGV trips shows a very small impact on the forecast flow results in comparison to the NTEM v6.2 central case. Flows along the A3047 and the new link road are the same as in the NTEM v6.2 Central Case in the Do Something option for the sections west of East Hill and Dudnance Lane. Further east daily vehicle flows are reduced by only 2%. In the Do-Minimum scenario daily flows are forecast about 4% lower if HGV flows are reduced in the 2010 base model.
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8. Summary
The Traffic Forecast report describes the development of the highway and public transport future year networks. Further it details the proposed development schedule provided by Cornwall Council and the process of matrix building for the 2015 and 2030 matrices. The ‘with’ and ‘without’ East-West Link reference matrices are assumed to be the same and are in line with the Cornwall Core Strategy. For the 2015 matrix an assessment was undertaken to identify the delay at East Hill junction without an East-West Link based on the schedule of development provided by Cornwall Council.
The forecast modelling included Diadem assignments allowing for mode choice and changes to trip distributions based on the difference in travel costs between the forecast and the base networks.
Further forecasts were prepared in line with NTEM v6.2. The assignment results showed lower traffic levels than with the Core Strategy scenario. Several other sensitivity tests have also been undertaken taking account of differences in traffic growth rates and variable demand parameters in comparison to the NTEM Central Case forecast.
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Appendices
Appendix A. Core Strategy Growth Figures Comparison______37
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Appendix A. Core Strategy Growth Figures Comparison
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Agenda No. 5 Appendix 1 Appendix 1: Core Strategy Growth Figures Comparison Community Network 40,000 PPAP Parish & Town Council Exhibition response Town Framework Figures* Area Recommendation* response to Options* to Options* *Average of consultation used for * Final distribution to be *Response rate in brackets to *No exhibition low missing CNA figures agreed growth dispersed figure used **Rural figure from first column (40,000 PPAP Recommendation) Bodmin 850 2,400 (1:7) 1,900 1,000-5,000 (Bodmin) 100** Bude 750 300 (5:11) 1,800 1,000 (Bude) 100** CPIR 5,250 4,600 (7:10) 4,600 6,500 (CPIR) 450** Camelford 750 900 (1:17) 900* 900*
Page 86 Caradon 450 300 (3:8) 1,300 800* China Clay 4,150 1,600 (1:5) 1,000* 1,300* Cornwall Gateway 1,350 2,300 (4:11) 2,300 1,000 (Saltash) 600** Falmouth Penryn 3,400 3,600 (3:9) 3,600 3,500 (Falmouth/Penryn) 800** Hayle & St Ives 2,300 1,700 (3:5) 2,200 1,000-1,500 (St Ives-Carbis Bay) 2,000-3,000 (Hayle) 150** Helston/Lizard 2,300 3,700 (3:18) 3,700 3,700* Launceston 2,400 1,300 (1:16) 2,400 2,200 (Launceston) 750** Liskeard & Looe 1,400 2,300 (3:18) 2,000 1,500 (Liskeard) 300** Newquay & St 3,000 2,600 (2:5) 3,800 3,600 (Newquay) Columb 350**
St Agnes & 1,250 300 (2:6) 1,000* 650* Perranporth St Austell 1,300 5,800 (2:5) 2,300 4,050* St Blazey, Fowey & 1,400 1,000 (4:11) 800* 900* Lostwithiel Truro & Roseland 4,750 3,300 (4:19) 4,000 3,650* Wadebridge & 1,250 1,400 (3:14) 2,400 1,900* Padstow West Penwith 1,700 4,000 (5:14) 4,800 2,000 (Penzance) 200** Total 40,000 43,400 (61:213) 46,800 46,950-52,450 Affordable @ 40% 16,000 17,360 18,720 18,780-20,980 Affordable @ 30% 12,000 13,020 14,040 14,085-15,735 Page 87