CPIR Transport Strategy Development Appendix D - Camborne Pool Redruth Best and Final Funding Forecasting Report August 2011 Camborne Pool Redruth Best and Final Funding Forecasting Report August 2011 Cornwall Council Camborne291073 ITD Pool ITW Redruth5 B P:\Southampton\ITW\Projects\291073 cpr 2011\wp\CPR BAFFB ForecastReport revB doc Best and Final FundingAugust 2011 Forecasting Report August 2011 Cornwall Council A3 Carrick House, Pydar Street, Truro, TR1 1EB Mott MacDonald, Stoneham Place, Stoneham Lane, Southampton SO50 9NW, United Kingdom T +44(0) 23 8062 8800 F +44(0) 23 8062 8801, W www.mottmac.com Camborne Pool Redruth Best and Final Funding Bid Issue and revision record Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description A July 2011 G Straube I Johnston I Johnston First and incomplete Draft B August 2011 G Straube I Johnston I Johnston Second Issue This document is issued for the party which commissioned it We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned document being relied upon by any other party, or being used project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission which used for any other purpose. is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it. Mott MacDonald, Stoneham Place, Stoneham Lane, Southampton SO50 9NW, United Kingdom T +44(0) 23 8062 8800 F +44(0) 23 8062 8801, W www.mottmac.com Camborne Pool Redruth Best and Final Funding Bid Content Chapter Title Page 1. Introduction 1 2. Forecast Networks 2 2.1 Highway Do-Minimum Improvements ____________________________________________________ 2 2.2 Highway Do-Something Network Background______________________________________________ 3 2.3 Highway Do-Something Network Elements________________________________________________ 4 2.4 Public Transport Network Assumptions ___________________________________________________ 5 3. Proposed Developments 6 3.1 Housing and Commercial Schedule______________________________________________________ 6 4. Trip Matrix Building 12 4.1 Scheme Dependent Development Assessment Approach ___________________________________ 12 4.2 Identification of year with unacceptable levels of service ____________________________________ 12 4.3 Identifying Uncertainty _______________________________________________________________ 13 4.4 Traffic Growth After 2015_____________________________________________________________ 17 4.5 Public Transport Matrices ____________________________________________________________ 18 4.6 Goods Vehicles Matrices _____________________________________________________________ 19 5. Highway Forecasts 20 5.1 Variable Demand Model Input _________________________________________________________ 20 5.2 DIADEM Settings ___________________________________________________________________ 21 6. Forecast Traffic Flows 22 7. Sensitivity Tests 24 7.1 NTEM Version 6.2 Central Case _______________________________________________________ 24 7.2 High Growth Sensitivity Test __________________________________________________________ 26 7.3 Low Growth Sensitivity Test___________________________________________________________ 26 7.4 DIADEM Lambda Parameter Sensitivity Test _____________________________________________ 27 7.5 DIADEM Alternative Parameter Sensitivity Test ___________________________________________ 28 7.6 Base Year Matrix Estimation Test ______________________________________________________ 29 7.7 Heavy Goods Vehicle Adjustment Test __________________________________________________ 33 8. Summary 35 Appendices 36 Appendix A. Core Strategy Growth Figures Comparison_______________________________________________ 37 Tables Table 3.1: Housing Schedule ___________________________________________________________________ 7 2 Table 3.2: Commercial Developments (m ) _______________________________________________________ 10 Table 4.1: Trip Rates_________________________________________________________________________ 12 291073/ITD/ITW/5/B August 2011 P:\Southampton\ITW\Projects\291073 cpr 2011\wp\CPR_BAFFB_ForecastReport_revB.doc Camborne Pool Redruth Best and Final Funding Bid Table 4.2: Uncertainty Log Housing _____________________________________________________________ 14 Table 4.3: Uncertainty Log Commercial __________________________________________________________ 16 Table 4.4: TEMPRO 6.2 Factors 2010-2015 ______________________________________________________ 17 Table 4.5: Core Strategy Growth _______________________________________________________________ 18 Table 4.6: Public Transport Forecast Factors______________________________________________________ 18 Table 4.7: Goods Vehicle Forecast Factors _______________________________________________________ 19 Table 5.1: DIADEM parameters ________________________________________________________________ 20 Table 5.2: Generalised Cost Coefficients _________________________________________________________ 21 Table 7.1: TEMPRO 6.2 Factors 2015-2030 ______________________________________________________ 24 Table 7.2: NTEM v6.2 Central Case – Flow Results ________________________________________________ 24 Table 7.3: High Growth Flow Results ____________________________________________________________ 26 Table 7.4: Low Growth Flow Results ____________________________________________________________ 27 Table 7.5: DIADEM Parameters – Lambda Sensitivity _______________________________________________ 27 Table 7.6: DIADEM Lambda Test –Flow Results ___________________________________________________ 28 Table 7.7: DIADEM Parameters – outside recommended WebTAG range _______________________________ 28 Table 7.8: DIADEM Parameter Test – Flow Results_________________________________________________ 29 Table 7.9: AM Peak 2005 Validation Results ______________________________________________________ 30 Table 7.10: Interpeak 2005 Validation Results ______________________________________________________ 31 Table 7.11: PM Peak 2005 Validation Results ______________________________________________________ 32 Table 7.12: 2005 Matrix Estimation Test – Flow Results ______________________________________________ 33 Table 7.13: HGV Test – Flow Results_____________________________________________________________ 34 Figures Figure 2.1: Do-Minimum Highway Network Elements _________________________________________________ 3 Figure 2.2: East-West Link Elements______________________________________________________________ 4 Figure 3.1: Development Locations _______________________________________________________________ 6 Figure 6.1: AADT Forecast Traffic Flows __________________________________________________________ 23 Figure 7.1: AADT Forecast Traffic Flows – NTEM Version 6.2 Central Case ______________________________ 25 291073/ITD/ITW/5/B August 2011 P:\Southampton\ITW\Projects\291073 cpr 2011\wp\CPR_BAFFB_ForecastReport_revB.doc Camborne Pool Redruth Best and Final Funding Bid 1. Introduction In February 2011, the Camborne Pool Redruth Transport Package was promoted to the Development Pool following a successful Expression of Interest in January 2011. A Best and Final Funding Bid (BAFFB) will be submitted to the Department for Transport (DfT) by 09 September 2011. The project received programme entry in 2008. Funding is now being sought for a project with a reduced scope, and the traffic and economic assessments are being updated to meet the requirements of Value for Money Guidance issued by the DfT in May 2011. The Forecasting Report is part of the Best and Final Funding Bid submission and is based on the validated highway and public transport models described in the Validation Report and the demand model parameters described in the Demand Model Report. This Forecast Report describes the methodology and forecasts for the years 2015 and 2030. Chapter 2 describes the network elements for the Do-Minimum and Do Something scenarios and Chapters 3 and 4 provide details about the forecast matrix building approaches. The assignment procedure is described in Chapter 5 and the forecast results and flows are shown in Chapter 6. The set up and flow results of several sensitivity tests is described in Chapter 7. 291073/ITD/ITW/5/B August 2011 P:\Southampton\ITW\Projects\291073 cpr 2011\wp\CPR_BAFFB_ForecastReport_revB.doc 1 Camborne Pool Redruth Best and Final Funding Bid 2. Forecast Networks 2.1 Highway Do-Minimum Improvements In summer 2010 junction improvements were undertaken to East Hill signal junction increasing storage capacity for the right turning lanes on three approaches. In order to incorporate this into the Do-Minimum forecast network the layout changes provided by Cornwall Council in drawing WHV258300AD-8-147 were tested using LinSig models for AM and PM peak. These models had been validated against observed February 2010 flows and the junction layout at that time. The additional capacity achieved from the improvements was incorporated into the SATURN model by adjusting the saturation flows for these approaches. These saturation flows were then used in the forecast models. Other network improvements are proposed to take place by 2013. These include: • Junction upgrades at A30 Junctions for Avers, Treswithian and Tolvaddon. • Extension to Industrial Access Road in Tolvaddon Business Park • Signalisation of Druid’s Road/Wilson Way priority junction