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Shopping Centres Shopping Centres Snapshot Q4 2017 ê Volumes down 40% compared with 2016 Transaction volumes for and at around half the 10 yr average ê Supply on market supply under £1bn 2017 were the lowest this but expected to rise in 2018 ê Demand remains low but uptick in century with only 31 deals institutional activity ê Capital Values Primes yield moved 4.25% completed, compared with to 4.50%; secondary stabilising at 9.50% ê Spread Prime to secondary spread 500bps, average deal flow of 64. in contrast to industrial spread (100bps) ê Income returns of 0.49% for November, the highest of any sector ê Outlook more stock in 2018 at lower pricing will lead to higher volumes • Volumes for 2017 at £1.6bn are around half the • We expect 2018 to be a year of opportunity in the Q4 Key Shopping Centres Transactions 10 year average due to a lack of demand and shopping centre investment market. Valuations source: Knight Frank LLP vendors’ reluctance to reprice stock. will continue to catch up true market pricing and, Shopping centre Purchaser Vendor Price (£m) NIY % • Only four acquisitions were made by Institutions as refinancing at historic valuations is removed compared to six in 2016. This is in contrast to from the equation, some of the Private Equity Chapelfield, Norwich LaSalle IM Intu £148m 5.25% strong institutional activity in other sectors. Two held stock will come through. In conjunction with Church Square, St Helens Council LaSalle IM £26.6m - of these acquisitions, however, were made in the likely sales that will come from the corporate The Grove, Witham Praxis* Global Mutual / £6m 9.00% Q4 with a further two under offer, showing some activity, we anticipate significant uptick in stock South African Capital encouraging signs at the end of the year. levels for 2018. • Councils acquired three more schemes in Q4, • In the short term this could drive lower capital Castle Quay, Banbury Cherwell District Council Aberdeen Standard* £58m 6.80% with another two going under offer, and the trend values but as the wider market recognises the Darwin / Pride Hill, Shrewsbury Shropshire County Council Aberdeen Standard £52m 6.50% of Councils acquiring schemes within their areas disproportionate discount retail is seeing, this Palace Gardens, Enfield Deutsche Aberdeen Standard £51.5m 6.50% of jurisdiction is set to continue. should drive an increase in demand towards the • Absence throughout 2017 of the Private Equity middle of the year. *Advised by Knight Frank source: Knight Frank LLP opportunistic buyers, with many of the recognised PE • Smaller lot size, higher yielding assets such as investors still holding shopping centres in previous Stroud and Witham already look close to fully Shopping Centre Transactions funds and being unwilling to increase their exposure. repriced and we are seeing increased activity 9.0 160 • The number of overseas investors has also fallen at that end. and going forward there are concerns the change • In the mid-market, traditionally the ground of 8.0 140 to capital gains tax rules for overseas buyers may institutions, there remains the greatest differential. 7.0 120 impact their pricing of assets. Those that trade well and serve a purpose are Number of 6.0 • There were 18 schemes withdrawn from formal likely to appeal to buyers, whereas some of the 100 transactions marketing during 2017. In addition many have been more challenged schemes, which are struggling 5.0 80 quietly offered and then refinanced. This ‘failure to to retain rent-paying tenants, will continue to see 4.0 Quarter 4 sell’ has epitomised the constipation in the market limited investment demand. 60 over 2017. • The occupational narrative remains largely 3.0 Quarter 3 40 • The agreed Unibail-Rodamco / Westfield and negative and we anticipate some distress in Q1. 2.0 Hammerson / Intu deals are a significant change Quarter 2 20 and will shape the prime market for 2018 and 1.0 beyond. Sales are anticipated in 2018. £bn of transactions, Value 0 0 of transactions Value Quarter 1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Retail & Shopping Centre Equivalent Yields Key Contacts (Q4 2010 - Q4 2017) 10% 9% 8% Secondary Town S/Centre 7% 6% Good Secondary S/Centre 5% 4% Dominant Prime S/Centre 3% Prime Retail 2% 1% Regional S/Centre 0% 5 year swap rates Q1 2011 Q1 2017 Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q3 2011 Q1 2015 Q2 2011 Q1 2016 Q1 2014 Q4 2011 Q3 2017 Q2 2017 Q4 2017 Q3 2013 Q3 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2012 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q4 2013 Q3 2014 Q4 2012 Q2 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2014 Q4 2010 Source: Knight Frank LLP Swap rates source: http://www.mortgagesforbusiness.co.uk/content/BuytoLetMortgages/BuytoLetMarketData/MoneyMarkets.aspx REIT Share Price versus Net Asset Value (NAV) Capital Landsec British Land Hammerson Intu NewRiver & Regional Shopping Centre Capital Markets Shopping Centre Leasing Latest Share Price (p) 994 679 537 248 335 55 Charlie Barke, Partner Rowen Grandison, Partner +44 20 7861 1233 +44 20 7861 5191 Q3 - Q4 Movement 1.95% 12.69% 0.28% 7.47% -0.53% -2.87% [email protected] [email protected] NAV per share (p) 1458 915 728 404 290 68 Mark Smith, Partner David Legat, Partner +44 20 7861 1533 +44 20 7861 5119 Premium to NAV -31.82% -25.77% -26.20% -38.74% 15.55% -19.29% [email protected] [email protected] David Willis, Partner Retail Research +44 20 7861 1208 [email protected] Stephen Springham, Partner Shopping Centre Availability +44 20 7861 1236 [email protected] 4,000 40 3,500 35 3,000 30 2,500 25 No. of centres availablerates 2,000 20 1,500 15 Under offer 1,000 10 © Knight Frank LLP 2018 – This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation Available of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage 500 5 resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily Value of transactions, £bn of transactions, Value 0 0 Number of available centres Source: Knight Frank LLP represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which it appears. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Q1 2011 Q1 2017 Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q3 2011 Q1 2015 Q2 2011 Q1 2016 Q1 2014 Q4 2011 Q1 2010 Q3 2017 Q2 2017 Q4 2017 Q3 2013 Q3 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2012 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2014 Q4 2013 Q4 2012 Q2 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q3 2010 Q4 2014 Q2 2010 Q4 2010 Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members’ names. Connecting People & Property, Perfectly..
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