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Shopping Centres Shopping centres: Snapshot Q4 2019 Volumes in 2019 are the • 2019 will mark a historic low in are reducing. Rents are likely to show lowest since records began shopping centre deal volumes. At just further reductions during 2020 as the under £1.1 billion, this will be the occupational market continues lowest amount transacted since our to rebalance. Supply to continue to records began. increase throughout 2020 • Looking ahead, there is consensus • Among the key deals this year were that the UK is now well-placed to Cale Street Partners’ innovative receive investment (both from within Demand improving through interest in repositioning assets acquisition of a 50% stake in intu and from overseas investors). The but thin away from this Derby, Areli’s mixed-use proposals at election result has put to bed any The Walnuts in Orpington and Ikea’s imminent threat of a change in first mixed-use, downtown acquisition government and has given direction to Capital Value growth of -15.51% in the 12 months to at Kings Mall in Hammersmith, which the Brexit situation. December 2019 (IPD) buoyed deal volumes in the latter quarter of the year. Nevertheless, at • Indeed, among the commentators £30 million, the average deal size is now predicting a bright future for the Spread stable given relative outward down on previous years - a symptom UK economy, Blackstone lists the movement in all yields of the continued write down in capital UK being the “winner in the divorce” values making lot sizes smaller. and outperforming Europe as one of its “surprises” for the year ahead (an Income will continue to • January is traditionally the month event they describe as probable but fall in 2020 as the occupational with the highest number of retailer investors only assign a probability of market rebalances casualties so inevitably we are 1 in 3 of it happening). Deal volumes expecting to see further occupational across the UK are expected to exceed Outlook cautious optimism – bad news over the coming weeks. £50 billion in 2020 in a significant greater confidence in the However, it is clear that consumer boost on 2019 transactions. investment market but balanced by further occupational uncertainty demand is holding up relatively well as a whole, although some divisions • The other major UK investment sectors are performing more strongly than are all reporting an improvement in others (grocery sales for example sentiment as the property market are outstripping clothing and home commences a new year of activity. We departments). expect some of this positivity to wash through into the retail sectors, although • Amongst the wider retail malaise, this is likely to be targeted at retail some retailers are defying the gloom warehousing before shopping centres. by providing positive trading results in early 2020. Next (+5.3% in Q4), • Headlines were made when big Dunelm (+6.2%) and Tesco (+0.4%) players from other sectors began to are displaying consistent growth target retail assets. Tritax acquired along with others, including JD, Marks three retail assets, and Prologis & Spencer, Mountain Warehouse (advised by Knight Frank) have and B&M, posting strong trading acquired Ravenside Retail Park in performances. Edmonton underwritten by a long term potential logistics conversion. Ikea • The occupational market remains also made a significant acquisition in very challenging with many retailers Hammersmith and is set to develop its seeking rent reductions either formally first mixed-use scheme around a new through CVA processes, or informally “city store”. through dialogue with Landlords. That being said the growing resistance • Retail is the principal sector to present to the CVA process is likely to itself as an opportunity for repurposing result in fewer taking place but as a given the relative arbitrage between consequence more administrations asset values. Retail “repositioners” given the options available to retailers are now casting their eye over the retail warehouse and shopping centre • 2020 could be the year that markets but are also looking at offices Private Equity investors, not and even the industrial sector on the tarnished by the performance of hunt for large, under-utilised sites legacy shopping centre portfolios, capable of redevelopment towards make a “play” on the market. This higher density uses. could be via corporate activity or the creation of a portfolio through targeted • Many who were once reluctant to acquisitions. consider the retail sector are now actively targeting retail assets. Over • We expect to see further stock from half of the deals done in 2019 were the UK institutions who continue to in the South East and this is a trend reweight their portfolios away from that will undoubtedly continue as retail retail but also selective sales from values continue to fall and residential retail focussed REITs seeking to values begin to grow again. raise capital as a result of the ongoing malaise. As we have suggested • There is growing acceptance that throughout 2019, a large amount of some areas of the market are stock is in the hands of the banks, who outperforming others and capital continue to be reluctant to force sales values have rebased dramatically but an improvement in sentiment across all retail property market both nationally and in the retail sectors segments. Such drastic price could see this come to market. corrections will make retail increasingly good value versus other property • We anticipate 2020 being a better investment classes, but effective stock year for transaction volumes than selection will be a pre-requisite in the 2019 as greater stability, and therefore coming year more than ever. confidence, returns to the investment markets. More openly marketed stock • It is for this reason that we expect to combined with innovative mixed-use see higher deal volumes in 2020, solutions to challenged retail assets with some commentators suggesting should improve liquidity. That being that we could look back on 2019 as said, buyers targeting the retail sector the bottom of the shopping centre will still seek to de-risk acquisitions investment market. with high entry yields and underwrite alternative uses to protect against • Councils will remain active buyers downside risks. The onus will therefore of shopping centres in 2020 having still be on sellers to accept the new made 22% of all acquisitions in 2019. pricing levels being evidenced. Knight Frank continue to support those local authorities who are prepared to take control of the direction of shopping centres in their town centres. Councils also have a crucial role to play in the evolution of their town centres as ambitious, mixed-use plans are worked up to redevelop shopping centres. Those who are proactive and forward-thinking will be the beneficiary of innovative schemes bringing other uses into town centres and taking under-used retail out of circulation in over-supplied towns and cities. Shopping centres: Snapshot Q4 2019 Q4 Key Shopping Centre Transactions Shopping centre Purchaser Vendor Price (£m) NIY % Kings Mall, Hammersmith Ikea Schroders £105.00 4.00% The Walnuts, Orpington Areli / Tikehau* Patrizia £30.50 8.00% Houndshill, Blackpool Blackpool Council New Frontier £47.5 0 10.15% Mailbox, Birmingham M7 Brockton £190.00 5.75% *Advised by Knight Frank Shopping Centre Transactions 9.0 8.0 160 7.0 140 6.0 120 Number of 5.0 100 transactions 4.0 80 Quarter 4 3.0 60 Quarter 3 2.0 40 Quarter 2 1.0 20 Value of transactions, £bn of transactions, Value 0.0 0 Number of transactions Quarter 1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Retail & Shopping Centre Yields Q1 2010 - Q4 2019 12.0% Local Scheme (Challenged) 10.0% Local Scheme (Successful) 8.0% Neighbourhood Scheme 6.0% Sub Regional Scheme 4.0% Regional Scheme 2.0% Prime Retail 0.0% 5 year swap rate Q1 2011 Q1 2017 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2019 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2018 Q1 2014 Q4 2011 Q1 2010 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2012 Q2 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2014 Q4 2019 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2018 Q4 2014 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Shopping centres: Snapshot Q4 2019 REIT Share Price vs Net Asset Value (NAV) Capital Landsec British Land Hammerson Intu New River & Regional Latest Share Price (p) -989 -636 -312 -34 -205 -25 Q2 - Q3 2019 Movement -19% -13% -13% -23% -8% -38% NAV per share (p)* -1298 -856 -685 -233 -244 -52 Premium to NAV -24% -26% -54% -85% -16% -52% *Latest available published NAV per share Shopping Centre Availability 4000 40 3500 35 3000 30 2500 25 2000 20 1500 15 Available 1000 10 Under Offer 500 5 Value of availability, £m of availability, Value 0 0 Number of centres available Number of available centres Q1 2011 Q1 2017 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2019 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2018 Q1 2014 Q4 2011 Q1 2010 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2014 Q4 2012 Q3 2014 Q4 2013 Q4 2019 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2018 Q4 2014 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Key Contacts Shopping Centre Capital Markets Shopping Centre Leasing Charlie Barke, Partner Patrick Keenan, Partner +44 20 7861 1233 +44 20 7861 1099 [email protected] [email protected] Mark Smith, Partner Rowen Grandison, Partner +44 20 7861 1533 +44 20 7861 5191 [email protected] [email protected] David Willis, Partner David Legat, Partner +44 20 7861 1208 +44 20 7861 5119 [email protected] [email protected]
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