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Retail Investment 2020

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Retail Investment 2020 Q3 2020 Retail Investment knightfrank.com/research 2020 The dust begins to settle? RETAIL INVESTMENT REPORT RETAIL INVESTMENT REPORT WHAT YOU NEED Key Transactions - 2020 TO KNOW… Property Sector Purchaser Vendor Price NIY Broadwalk, Edgware Shopping Centre Ballymore Aberdeen Standard Investments* £71m 4.90% Project Rock Portfolio Shopping Centre MDSR Aviva Finance £80m 10.50% Clifton Down, Bristol Shopping Centre Sovereign Housing Association Blackrock* £27m 7.40% Retail Warehousing Shopping Centres High Street Waitrose Portfolio Foodstore London Metric Waitrose £62m 4.30% Countercyclical strategy to Significant capital and rental value Reasonable liquidity in smaller Waitrose Portfolio Foodstore Supermarket Income REIT Waitrose £74m 4.40% attract investors correction underway lot sizes Sainsbury's Portfolio Foodstore Supermarket Income REIT British Land £102m - Demand in the South East/London All schemes rebasing to potentially Demand returning for historic prime/ RDI Portfolio Retail Warehouse M7 RDI £157m 7.50% more resilient attractive new levels rent-paying tenants Acquisitions underwritten by Relevant schemes – prime New level of pricing accounting for Tritax Portfolio Retail Warehouse Tritax Aberdeen Standard Investments £290m 7.25% high income return or alternative experiential and local convenience – overrent Pentavia Retail Park, London Retail Warehouse Amazon Meadow Partners £65m - use values will stabilise first New use class “E” to improve 1-8 The Broadway, Ealing High Street Investra Capital PGIM £34m 5.00% Foodstore demand red hot Repositioning opportunity increasing flexibility Union Gate, Bristol High Street AEW Hunter REIM* £10m 7.30% as values tumble *Advised by Knight Frank THE YEAR SO FAR… Key Transactions - 2020 At the start of 2020 we were starting processes. Most sales were paused the lack of debt financing available in to see signs of demand returning or abandoned at this stage, as the the market and indeed most multi-let Shopping Centres Retail Warehouse High Street Foodstores £2.143 billion to the retail markets. This was shockwaves from a national lockdown transactions proceeding at present primarily focussed on repositioning rippled through the markets. Q2 deal are doing so either with debt stapled of stock opportunities inside the M25 and low volumes across all of the sectors were or guarantees over future payment rented retail warehousing, but some exceptionally low. of rent. £219m has traded investors were beginning to consider across the retail as a countercyclical buying With the moratorium over tenant One area of renewed focus for many £280m opportunity. evictions extended to year end, investors is the foodstore market, £814m shopping many occupiers continue to where traditionally longer leases and The lockdown period following the opportunistically renegotiate leases stronger covenants are seeing many centre, retail advent of the Covid-19 pandemic and close stores either organically UK institutions, REITs and overseas caused many retail occupiers and or via CVA and administration capital vying for new investment warehousing, owners to drastically rethink their processes. Most tenants are opportunities. business plans. With retailers in rationalising their portfolios and are foodstore and “survival-mode”, most looked to taking advantage of lease breaks or Two sale & leaseback portfolios of defer rental payments, agree rent free expiries to significantly reduce the Waitrose foodstores, totalling £134m £830m high street arrangements, or simply not pay rent rent they pay. and acquired by Supermarket Income at all. REIT and London Metric, are the sectors in This uncertainty over future most significant deals in this market, 2020 so far Landlords were largely focussed cashflows continues to significantly with many others seeking similar on rent collection as scrutiny over impact liquidity. Many sales opportunities. Source: Knight Frank rental arrears began to delay sale processes continue to be stymied by 2 3 RETAIL INVESTMENT REPORT RETAIL INVESTMENT REPORT There is more liquidity in smaller We also continue to see demand for With capital values reducing and Prime Retail Yields assets of <£10m, where the lack of well located multi-let retail assets income yields seemingly peaking, we debt is perceived to be less of an issue. in the South East, driven largely by are seeing income investors return Shopping Centres Retail Warehouse High Street Foodstores Portfolios or larger lot sizes, where the opportunity to repurpose the to the market primarily for retail 7.50% debt was historically taken on to fund space into higher value alternative warehousing, let to stronger covenant acquisitions, remain very challenging. uses. Sales such as The Broadwalk food, DIY, discount or bulky goods 7.00% Shops let to banks, essential retailers shopping centre adjacent to Edgware operators, which are perceived to be 6.50% and convenience stores are all seeing underground station (a process more insulated from the impacts of renewed demand where there is led by Knight Frank) saw intense e-commerce. 6.00% greater certainty over continuity of competition from residentially 5.50% trade and payment of rent. motivated investors seeking the We expect the heightened returns 5.00% opportunity to convert the site. on offer from this sector to continue We are beginning to see demand return to attract more investors, with the 4.50% for historic prime centres. On the high With the introduction of the new countercyclical buying opportunity 4.00% street, historic cities such as Guildford flexible planning use class “E”, we more readily acknowledged here. are seeing transactions starting to take expect town centre investors and 3.50% Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 14 Q3 14 Q1 15 Q3 15 Q1 16 Q3 16 Q1 17 Q3 17 Q1 18 Q3 18 Q1 19 Q3 19 Q1 20 Q3 20 place, but a new level of pricing is seeing regeneration experts to cast an eye overrent priced into transactions, with over many retail asset in the coming Source: Knight Frank initial yields now reaching 8.00%+ - a months. significant discount on their peak at c.4.00% in 2015. KNIGHT FRANK OUTLOOK… E-commerce penetration to peak at Polarisation to become more severe Stock in the market to increase – Transaction Volumes c.30%, equivalent to the levels seen with prime, experiential and local, Knight Frank research suggests 75% during periods of lockdown, and community retail assets to remain of shopping centre owners would Shopping Centres Retail Warehouse High Street Foodstores Average begin to plateau at long term averages robust, but with the middle market consider a sale should a sensible 14.00 of c.22-24%. increasingly squeezed. buyer present themselves. Rebasing of rental and capital values Potential local lockdowns to have a Bank-led sales processes also to 12.00 will see a new level of pricing in 2021. lesser impact on retail trade but the increase as debt covenants are tripped We anticipate rental declines of 30- food & beverage/leisure sectors to in leveraged portfolios. 10.00 50% and capital declines of 50% or remain challenging through 2020. more in extreme cases over 2020. Investors to cautiously return to the Smaller lot sizes will continue to find retail sector but we expect many more 8.00 a market, especially where there is to acknowledge the countercyclical flexibility over future use afforded investment opportunity by mid-2021. 6.00 through conversion. Value of transactions, £bn 4.00 REIT Share Price Tracker 2.00 Landsec British Land Hammerson NewRiver Capital & Supermarket London Regional Income REIT Metric 0.00 Latest Share Price (p) 518.00 338.00 16.00 47.00 38.00 107.00 220.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q1 - Q3 2020 Movement -48% -46% -89% -77% -85% -3% -8% NAV per share (p)* 1192.00 7 74.00 601.00 201.00 229.00 101.00 172.00 Source: Knight Frank Premium to NAV -57% -56% -97% -77% -83% 6% 28% *Latest available published NAV per share 4 5 RETAIL INVESTMENT REPORT RETAIL INVESTMENT REPORT KNIGHT FRANK DEALS B&Q, Bolton Captain Cook, Middlesbrough Despite the challenges presented during 2020, Knight Frank have continued to close transactions. We have completed 3 of 4 shopping centre sales above £10m done in the UK this year. A selection of our deals are shown below. August 20200 June 2020 Client: Colony Capital Client: Middlesbrough Council Price: £16m / 10.25% NIY Price: £8m / 12% NIY Clifton Down Shopping Centre, Bristol Broadwalk Shopping Centre, Edgware B&Q, Romford Elmsleigh Centre, Staines October 2020 September 2020 April 2020 February 2020 Client: Blackrock Client: Aberdeen Standard Investments Client: Knight Frank IM Client: Aberdeen Standard Investments Price: £27.2m / 7.40% NIY Price: £71m / 4.90% NIY Price: £23m / 5.50% NIY Price: £39m / 8.65% NIY Downlands Retail Park, Worthing Union Gate, Bristol 19-24 Queen Street & 1-10 St Ebbes Street, Oxford Superdrug, Newcastle August 2020 August 2020 Under Offer Under Offer Client: Melford Capital Client: Hunter REIM Client: Aberdeen Standard Investments Client: M&G Real Estate Price: £18m / 10% NIY Price: £10m / 7.30% NIY Price: £10m / 9.65% NIY Price: £7m / 8.00% NIY 6 7 CONTACTS Charlie Barke Dominic Walton Alastair Bird [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] David Willis Will Lund Daniel Serfontein [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Sam Waterworth Freddie MacColl Joe Kane [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Confidential Considered Advice Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range Knight Frank Research of clients worldwide including developers, investors, funding organisations, corporate institutions and the public sector. All our clients recognise the need for expert independent advice customised to their Reports are available at specific needs. Important Notice: © Knight Frank LLP 2020 This report is published for general information knightfrank.com/research only and not to be relied upon in any way.
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