PDNA Evaluation of the effects, impacts and needs El Salvador is facing due to the double incidence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the tropical storms Amanda and Cristóbal EL SALVADOR 2020 PDNA EL SALVADOR 2020 Table of contents Presentation/ Page 5 Vision/ Page 45 Guiding principles/ Page 45 Acronyms/ Page 7 Strategic lines, objective and action lines/ Page 45 Preface/ Page 8 Financing and financial management/ Page 48 Key findings/ Page 10 Next steps/ Page 50 Context analysis/ Page 12 National recovery strategy/ Page 51 COVID-19 in El Salvador/ Page 13 Institutionalize procedures for the Tropical storms Amanda and estimation of recovery needs/ Page 51 Cristóbal/ Page 17 Sectorial reports Immediate response/ Page 22 Health/ Page 56 To COVID-19/ Page 23 Education / Page 94 To tropical storms Amanda and Housing/ Page 136 Cristóbal/ Page 24 Culture/ Page 160 Agriculture/ Page 192 Estimate of the recovery needs due to Tourism/ Page 218 the double impact of the Amanda and Industry, commerce and services/ Page 232 Cristóbal storms in the midst of the Infrastructure and transport/ Page 244 COVID-19 response/ Page 26 Energy subsector/ Page 254 Methodological aspects/ Page 27 Drinking water and sanitation/ Page 272 Combined effects of coVID-19 and the Macroeconomic impact/ Page 284 tropical storms/ Page 28 Human impact/ Page 294 Human impact/ Page 31 Employment and livelihoods/ Page 338 Macroeconomic impact/ Page 39 Recovery needs/ Page 42 PDNA El Salvador Coordination table and Sectors/ Page 356 Strategic guidelines for recovery/ Page 44 PDNA EL SALVADOR 2020 page 5 Presentation The Government of the Republic of El Salva- virtually (team training, meetings and the sub- dor, in order to respond to the areas affected sequent discussion of the assessment coordi- in the emergency caused by tropical storms nation team). On the part of the Government Amanda and Cristóbal, in addition to the con- of El Salvador, the assessment was led by the fluence of the COVID-19 pandemic, made the Ministry of Economy and the Secretariat of decision to conduct a Post-Disaster Needs Trade and Investments of the Presidency of Assessment, which will allow to quantify the the Republic, and technically supported by a effects of both events. El Salvador is the first team made up of over 60 focal points from 23 country in Latin America to achieve this com- public institutions. bined event analysis. With the assessment, the recovery costs that the rehabilitation and The approach included, by the different focal reconstruction of the country would entail are points of government institutions, the anal- estimated, using to this end the Post-Disas- ysis and review of a set of data that shows ter Needs Assessment (PDNA) methodology, pre-disaster conditions, and compared them developed jointly with the European Union, with post-disaster conditions, in order to eval- the World Bank and the United Nations Sys- uate the effects and impacts of the phenom- tem. The foregoing is based on an offer and ena that occurred, in order to determine a a working relationship that has been devel- general recovery strategy. The methodology oped and strengthened with the United Na- combined quantitative and qualitative data, in tions Development Program (UNDP) and the order to analyze and evaluate economic and agency’s experience in areas of response human impacts. and recovery from disasters. We hope that this great effort, product of the The assessment process was technically con- coordinated inter-institutional work between ducted by a United Nations System team, the Central Government and the different with the UNDP acting as technical coordi- participating international cooperation orga- nator of the exercise, and by a group of ex- nizations, will allow us to begin preparing our perts from the European Union and the World strategy with a recovery framework, to define Bank. This great effort occurs at a time when the next steps to follow on the road to the El Salvador and the entire world are still go- reconstruction of El Salvador. This is of great ing through the COVID-19 pandemic, so the relevance, since El Salvador is a country that entire assessment process was carried out is constantly exposed to natural events that, PDNA EL SALVADOR 2020 paGE 6 due to its vulnerability, significantly impact ernment that seeks the benefit of Salvador- it, so it is important to work on the country’s ans, the ultimate goal of our actions. Today, resilience to face and mitigate the impact of more than ever, we are convinced that this future events that may take place, so that its work cannot wait, and we must, as a man- people do not have to continue suffering the date, continue this process begun with the consequences of these situations. Post-Disaster Needs Assessment that we present below. It is, therefore, a task with a national scope that is in our hands now; an effort of this Gov- PDNA EL SALVADOR 2020 page 7 Acronyms BCR: Central Reserve Bank CPI: Consumer Price Index DIGESTYC: General Directorate of Statistics and Censuses FGR: Attorney-General’s Office FOPROMID: Civil Protection, Prevention and Disaster Mitigation Fund ILO: International Labor Organization ISSS: Salvadoran Social Security Institute ITCZ: Intertropical Convergence Zone mag: Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock MARN: Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources MINEC: Ministry of Economy MINSAL: Ministry of Health MPI: Multidimensional Poverty Index MPHS: Multipurpose Household Survey MSME: Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises ORMUSA: Organization of Salvadoran Women for Peace PDNA: Post Disaster Needs Assessment PHEIC: Public Health Emergency of International Concern UNDP: United Nations Development Program VAT: Value Added Tax WHO: World Health Organization WMO: World Meteorological Organization PDNA EL SALVADOR 2020 paGE 8 Preface This analysis is part of the evaluation of the nomena. The study represents a notable con- effects, impacts and needs El Salvador is tribution to the recovery needs assessment facing due to the double incidence of the practice in situations that will surely recur and COVID-19 pandemic and the tropical storms become more complex with COVID-19 and Amanda and Cristóbal. The Post-Disaster the potential impact of other natural hazards, Needs Assessment (PDNA) Methodology is such as heavy rains, hurricanes, seismic and used to estimate the costs of the combined volcanic activity, among others. effect of the two conjunctures, in terms of damages, losses and additional costs, as well The estimated needs derive from the effects as the cost of the combined needs for a com- that confinement and containment measures prehensive and resilient recovery in the face that the management of the pandemic re- of future crises. quired until May 2020: the loss of income, the increase in costs to ensure the provi- The time frame in which this analysis is made sion of sectoral services and the unexpected considers its beginning in mid-March 2020, costs that had to be incurred for respond to with the emergence of COVID-19, and its the pandemic. These needs increased with ending with the presence of storms Aman- the arrival of tropical storms, which added da and Cristóbal in late May and early June a scene of destruction of infrastructure and 2020. The rise of these storms changed the physical assets and increased economic loss- forecasts to face the pandemic and the mea- es in various sectors. sures implemented to that date and put the resilience capacity of the Salvadoran popula- This evaluation was led by the Government of tion to a test. This forces us to carry out an El Salvador, through the Ministry of Economy unprecedented analysis in which the effects (MINEC) and the Secretariat of Trade and In- of the two catastrophes are separated, while vestments of the Presidency of the Republic. their interaction is captured. It also had the support of the United Nations System, the World Bank and the European El Salvador is the first country inL atin America, Union, as part of its tripartite agreement. The and one of the few in the world, to carry out a general coordination and technical direction combined analysis of the effects of both phe- of the process were in charge of the United PDNA EL SALVADOR 2020 page 9 Nations Development Program (UNDP), and with the active participation of sixty techni- cians and government officials from the gov- erning entities of twelve socioeconomic sec- tors and two cross-cutting areas analyzed. Due to mobility restrictions due to the pan- demic, the evaluation was carried out virtual- ly, between July 11 and September 25, 2020. This report is organized as follows: 1) An exec- utive summary that allows the reader to focus on the most relevant aspects of the context, sectorial effects, human and macroeconomic impact, recovery needs per sector and brief guidelines for its implementation; 2) The ele- ments to formulate a national recovery strat- egy that includes a vision, guiding principles and five strategic lines with their budget and potential action lines; and 3) A section of next steps recommended by the participants to continue this process. PDNA EL SALVADOR 2020 paGE 10 Key findings The total1 estimated damage in all the sec- Amanda and Cristóbal, together with the tors analyzed amounts to US$106.71 million, COVID-19 pandemic and pre-existing socio- of which 35.0% corresponds to the public economic inequities, have contributed to wid- sector and 65.0% to the private sector. The2 ening the gaps, if the five indicators of human total losses, on the other hand, amount to impact suggested by the PDNA methodology US$2,824.78 million, of which 22.0% corre- are taken into consideration: living conditions, spond to the public sector and 78.0% to the employment and livelihoods, gender equity, private sector.