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Conflict Vulnerability in Peru: an Assessment

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Conflict Vulnerability in Peru: an Assessment CONFLICT VULNERABILITY IN PERU: AN ASSESSMENT Presented by Evidence Based Research (EBR) Management Systems International (MSI) Under contract to the United States Agency for International Development IQC #AEP-I-00-99-00040-00, Task Order #1 Submitted to United States Agency for International Development (USAID) August 4, 2000 Bruce H. Kay, Ph.D. Evidence Based Research, Inc. (EBR) Prime Contractor: Management Systems International, Inc. 600 Water Street, SW Washington, DC 20024 (202) 484-7170 Views and conclusions expressed in this report are those of the authors and contributors and do not represent those of the project sponsor, or the United States Government. Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................4 Project Summary..................................................................................................................................................4 Personnel and Method ..........................................................................................................................................4 Summary of Findings ...........................................................................................................................................5 Table 1: Vulnerability by Conflict Scenario, 1995-2005........................................................................................6 Table 2: Summary of Drivers & Inhibitors by Conflict Type .................................................................................7 Framework and Definition of Terms.........................................................................................................................8 Analysis: Violent Conflict Drivers/Inhibitors...........................................................................................................9 Governance Factors..............................................................................................................................................9 State Capacity ................................................................................................................................................ 10 Table 3: Fiscal Strength: Revenue, Reserves, Spending, Deficits ......................................................................... 11 Table 4: Projects Approved by Foncodes and Expenditure by Department in 1998............................................... 12 State-Society Relations................................................................................................................................... 14 Public Confidence in Institutions..................................................................................................................... 17 Elections......................................................................................................................................................... 18 Disaffected Youth........................................................................................................................................... 19 Table 5: Survey of Student Demonstrators .......................................................................................................... 20 Table 6: Focus Group Survey Part 1: Conflict Vulnerability................................................................................. 21 Table 7: Focus Group Survey: Part 2: Grievances ............................................................................................... 22 General Government Disaffection ................................................................................................................... 22 Table 8: Valid and Invalid Voting in National Elections, 1978-2000.................................................................... 23 Human Rights Abuses..................................................................................................................................... 23 Corruption ...................................................................................................................................................... 24 Centralization ................................................................................................................................................. 25 Socioeconomic Factors....................................................................................................................................... 26 Economic Performance................................................................................................................................... 26 Table: Latinobarómetro Survey 1999 .................................................................................................................. 27 Regression Analysis 1: Economic Factors and Internal War............................................................................. 28 Table 10: Economic Performance and Internal War: Bivariate Correlations......................................................... 29 Table 11: Correlation Coefficients: Invalid (Null) Voting.................................................................................... 29 Regression Analysis 2: Economic Factors and Civil Unrest ............................................................................. 30 Table 12: Civil Unrest within 5 Years? ............................................................................................................... 30 Table 13: Economic Performance and Civil Unrest ............................................................................................. 31 Regression Analysis 3: Economic Factors and Anomic Violence ..................................................................... 31 Table 14: Economic Performance & Anomic Violence: Bivariate Correlations.................................................... 31 Labor Stability................................................................................................................................................ 32 Ethnicity/Discrimination ................................................................................................................................. 32 Illicit Narcotics Industry ................................................................................................................................. 33 Table 15: Average Price of Coca Leaf by Geographic Area (US$ per Kg.)........................................................... 34 Players and Their Interests: Parties to Conflict, Those Interested in Managing It...................................................... 35 Regions Likely to Experience Violent Conflict ....................................................................................................... 37 Table 16: Departments Affected by Violence, 1980-98 & 5-Year Conflict Vulnerability..................................... 39 Summary of Findings, General ............................................................................................................................... 40 Summary of Findings, Regional.............................................................................................................................. 41 Strategic Recommendations.................................................................................................................................... 42 Appendix A: Methodology & Future Application.................................................................................................... 46 Future Application.............................................................................................................................................. 47 Appendix B Conflict Trends: Internal War.............................................................................................................. 48 Internal War: Terrorist Attacks By Department, 1980-1998................................................................................. 49 Appendix C: Selected Regression Results (Significant Correlations Only) ............................................................... 50 Terrorist Attacks Lead Effects of 1-5 Years (Internal War).................................................................................. 50 Civil Unrest within 5 Years? (0/1): Correlation Coefficients................................................................................ 51 Major Civil Unrest Occurs Within 5 Years: Logit Model of Civil Unrest ............................................................. 51 Anomic Violence (Criminal Violence Requiring Police Intervention).................................................................. 52 Peru Conflict Vulnerability Assessment 2 C:\02-05-working\_new_0306\FinalReport.doc Appendix D. Selected Macroeconomic Variables.................................................................................................... 53 Appendix E: Chronology of Disputed 2000 Election in Peru and............................................................................. 54 OAS High Level Mission Proposal ......................................................................................................................... 54 Appendix F: Selected Regional Mobilization Chronologies:.................................................................................... 59 Mobilizations in Huancayo ................................................................................................................................. 59 Mobilizations
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