6.5 the Implications of South Sudan Mediation for Ethiopia

GSJ: Volume 9, Issue 7, July 2021 ISSN 2320-9186 1109

GSJ: Volume 9, Issue 7, July 2021, Online: ISSN 2320-9186 www.globalscientificjournal.com

DEBRE MARKOS UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE AND HUMANITIES DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

ETHIOPIA’S MEDIATION ROLE IN SOUTH SUDAN CONFLICT SINCE 2013: CHALLENGES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS.

BY: ASCHALE ABIE

ADVISOR: MOHD JAMEEL DAR (PhD) ASSISTANT PROFESSOR

DEBRE MARKOS JUNE, 2021

DEBRE MARKOS UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE AND HUMANITIES DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

ETHIOPIA’S MEDIATION ROLE IN SOUTH SUDAN CONFLICT SINCE 2013: CHALLENGES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS.

A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE POST GRADUATE STUDIES OF DEBRE MARKOS UNIVERSITY IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

BY: ASCHALE ABIE ADVISOR: MOHD JAMEEL DAR (PhD) ASSISTANT PROFESSOR

DEBRE MARKOS JUNE, 2021

DEBRE MARKOS UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE AND HUMANITIES DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

ETHIOPIA’S MEDIATION ROLE IN SOUTH SUDAN CONFLICT SINCE 2013: CHALLENGES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS.

BY: ASCHALE ABIE

Approved by the Board of Examiners:

______Advisor Signature Date

______External Examiner Signature Date

______Internal Examiner Signature Date

Table of Contents

Acknowledgment ...... iv List of Acronyms ...... iv Abstract ...... v CHAPTER ONE ...... 1 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1 1.1 Back ground ...... 1 1.2 Problem statement ...... 3 1.3 Research questions ...... 5 1.5 Objective of the study ...... 5 1.5.1 General objective...... 5 1.5.2 Specific objective ...... 5 1.6 Methodology of the study ...... 5 1.6.1 Research design ...... 5 1.6.2 Tools of Data Collection ...... 6 1.6.3 Sampling Method ...... 6 1.6.4 Data Analysis ...... 6 1.7 Significance of the study ...... 6 1.8 Scope of the study ...... 7 1.9 Organization of the study ...... 7 1.10 Limitation of the Study ...... 7 1.11 Ethical consideration ...... 7 2. CONCEPTUAL AND THEORETICAL FRAME WORKS AND LITERATURE REVIEW .. 8 2.1 The concept of conflict ...... 8 2.3Theory of conflict ...... 8 2.3.1 Ethnic diversity theory ...... 8 2.3.2 Economic/Structural theory...... 9 2.3.3 Manipulative Elite theory ...... 10 2.4 The context of conflict in south Sudan ...... 10 2.5 The concept of Mediation ...... 12 2.6 Theory of Mediation ...... 15 2.6.1 Negotiation theory ...... 15 2.6.2 Power-Sharing Theory ...... 16

2.7 Models of Mediation ...... 17 2.7.1 Facilitative Model of Mediation ...... 18 2.7.2 Evaluative Model of Mediation...... 19 2.7.3 Transformative mediation ...... 20 2.8 The Role of Mediator and its determinant factors ...... 21 2.9 Factors of mediation ...... 23 2.9.1 The characters of mediator ...... 23 2.9.2 The behaviour of the disputants ...... 24 2.9.3 The relationships of the mediator with the parties ...... 25 CHAPTER THREE ...... 25 3. THE HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE OF ETHIOPIA IN CONFLICT RESOLUTION ...... 25 3.1The role of Ethiopia in peace keeping ...... 26 3.2 Ethiopia’s involvement in peace keeping operations ...... 28 3.3 Ethiopia’s Diplomatic and military status in the Region ...... 30 3.4 The 1972 Addis Ababa Peace Agreement between North and South Sudan ...... 32 CAPTER FOUR...... 34 4. THE ETHIOPIA’S MEDIATION ROLE IN SOUTH SUDAN CONFLICT ...... 34 4.1The impact of South Sudan civil war on Ethiopia ...... 34 4.1.1 The Social impact ...... 35 4.1.2 The Political impact ...... 35 4.1.3 The Security impact ...... 36 4.1.4 The Economic impact ...... 36 4.2 The Role of Ethiopia in the Mediation Process ...... 37 4.3 Challenges of the mediation process...... 40 4.3.1 Mistrust of the warring parties ...... 40 4.3.2 Lack of cooperation ...... 40 4.3.3 Divergent interest of the external actors in south Sudan ...... 41 4.4 The Reasons of why Ethiopia Involved in South Sudan Conflict Resolution process ...... 42 6.5 The Implications of South Sudan Mediation for Ethiopia ...... 45 4.5.1 Boarder and mutual territorial Security ...... 45 4.5.2 Trade and investment ...... 46 4.5.3 Nile basin politics ...... 47 CHAPTER FIVE ...... 48 5. CONCLUSION ...... 48

5.1 Conclusion ...... 48 Reference ...... 50 Annex 1, Interview Guide ...... 53 Annex 2, List of Key informants ...... 59

iii

Acknowledgment First, I would like to thank Almighty GOD for helping me in my efforts of conducting this study. This research is made possible through the help and support of many peoples. Above all I offer my sincerest gratitude to my advisor Dr. Mohd Jameel Dar Assistant Professor; He has helped me throughout my thesis. I also thank to my key informants Ato Gedu Andargachew, Ambassador Fesseha shawul, Dr. Abdeta Dribssa and Ambassador James Morgan for their willingness to give invaluable information for this study. I also thank to my family and friends for their moral and technical support throughout my study and this research specially.

List of Acronyms

ADR - Alternative Dispute Resolution AUHIP- African Union High Implementation Panel ARCSS - Agreement Resolution Conflict on South Sudan CPA - Comprehensive peace agreement EPLF- Eritrea People’s Liberation Front FANSPS- Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy GERD- Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam HoA- Horn of Africa IGAD - Inter-governmental Authority on Development NIF - National Islamic Front SPLM - Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement SLPM/A-IO- Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement Army/ in Opposition SPLM/A - Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement in Army TPLF- Tigrain People Liberation Front R-ARCSS- Revitalized Agreement on Resolving the Conflict in South Sudan UN - United Nation UK United Kingdom

US - United State UNISFA - United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei UPAF - Ugandan People’s Defence Forces UNAMID- United Nation African Hybrid Mission to Darfur UNMIS - United Nation Mission in Sudan UNMISS - United Nation Mission in South Sudan WHO - World Health Organization

Abstract After the two years of independence in 2011, South Sudan entered into a brutal civil war. A war broke out On December 15, 2013 the cause of war was political division and power competition between the two opposition leaders. Ethiopia has been played a key role in resolving South Sudan conflict that broke out between the Government of South Sudan and the opposition. Ethiopia has been actively involved in the mediation process to defuse and resolve tensions within South Sudan both as individual and as IGAD chair member has a vital role, including deployment of peace keeping forces. The two opposition groups signed a power-sharing peace agreement and establish a united transitional government in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. The mediation role in South Sudan conflict has been very important and a crucial task for Ethiopia. The mediation process has many challenges such as the mistrust of opposition parties and lack of commitment to solve their own problem, lack of cooperation and interest competition of regional and international actors. This study investigates Ethiopia’s mediation role in South Sudan conflict challenges and its opportunities. Qualitative research methodology is used in the course of collecting and analyzing data by employing both primary and secondary sources as method of data collection

Key terms: Ethiopia’s, Role, Mediation, South Sudan, Conflict.

CHAPTER ONE

1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Back ground

A conflict in Africa has arisen from an extended list of antagonism. Stephen John Stedman's list of problems generating conflict is exceedingly relevant to understand the prolonged and complicated. This list includes “the drags and tows of varied identities, the differential distribution of resources and access to power, and competing definitions of what is right, fair and justice” (Yehudit, 2002). Stedman states that when individuals and groups address violence to unravel such problems, conflict takes on a second dimension that of security and survival, and this, in turn, makes conflict resolution as multifaceted because the conflict itself. In such a scenario, the conflict might become prolonged because of the antagonists come to fear the results of settlement, during which parties choose mutual security arrangements over the individual pursuit of security (ibid). In most of the years after Sudan independence from British in 1956, South Sudan (‘southern Sudan’ until 2011) has been embroiled in conflict. Between 1955 and 1972, and again from 1983 to 2005, southern Sudanese fought against political and economic marginalization from the Khartoum-based Sudanese government in a two long civil wars, which eventually led to the independence of South Sudan on 9 July 2011 (Esther Soma, 2020). Historians date the beginning of the Sudanese national movement within the 1920s, with the formation of the anti- British White Brigade founded by two South Sudanese, Ali Abdalatif, a Dinka, and Abdalfadheel El Maza, Nuer. Since then scientific and anecdotal literature on South Sudan has denoted an unending and mostly violent struggle against British colonial administration and, later on, its northern-based Arab successors, which buttressed a long-running war that has repeatedly taken ethnic turns within South Sudan itself (Yusuf and Mathias K, 2016). The seeds of the civil wars that are fought for several years in Sudan were by the Turkoss-Egyptian and Anglo-Egyptian colonial rulers that administrated North and South Sudan separately (Yohhanes, 2015). The people of South Sudan get over monumental times as their dreams were realized as their struggles of independence bore fruit on July 9, 2011, which they won a sovereign country. The

Republic of South Sudan thus became the 54th state of Africa and 193rd member of the United Nations. Its independence is getting to be remembered together of various events within the history of Africa (Nadia, 2012). In July 2011 South Sudan became independent following a referendum during which 98 percent voted for separation from the North. South Sudan is heterogynous country it has more than 60 cultural and linguistic groups. With the signing of the good Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, the diverse ethnic groups were united behind the common goal of self-determination. With independence however, long-simmering tensions and disputes have resurfaced (Ingrid, 2013 and Yohhanes, 2015). South Sudan could also be a multi- ethnic society; no ethnos constitutes a majority, but the Dinka and thus the Nuer structure 4.8 million or 57 percent of South Sudan’s population. With 3.2 a million Dinka and 1.6 Million Nuer, the Dinka outnumber the Nuer by a component of two to a minimum of one. Dinka exists in seven out of 10 South Sudan states, with the majority being found in Northern Bahr-el-Ghazal, Warrap and Lakes states. The Nuer lives mainly in Unity, The upper, Nile, and Jonglei states. The two ethnic groups share a typical culture, have similar languages, and mostly share the same spiritual beliefs, practice and an agro-pastoralist economy (John M., 2015). On 15 December 2013, a bloody war broke out in Juba, South Sudan (Yohhanes, 2015 and Israel, 2018).

Ethiopia has already established a consistent policy objective of paying a special attention to her relation with the neighbouring countries including South Sudan. Ethiopia always considers peace within the neighbouring countries as her own peace and its contribution to peace and stability within the Horn of Africa and thus the countries full commitment to the struggle against terrorism have won her global acclamation (Ethiopian herland, 2019). Historically Ethiopia and South Sudan have common ethnos and share long boundary (Kidist, 2014). The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia is one of the key countries with keen diplomatic interests and influence in South Sudan and within the whole Horn of Africa. Ethiopia features a historical relationship with the people of South Sudan. The restlessness relationship between President Salva Kiir and his former Vice-President, Dr Riek Machar, defines the conflict situation within the Republic of South Sudan. The country has experienced incurable conflicts, but also limited intermittent peace spells. Following the outbreak of conflict there in late 2013, Ethiopia has been focused more on bringing the warring parties to the negotiation table.

1.2 Problem statement

After cold war ethnicity has been the main cause for conflict and political instability, especially in Africa more than any other continent, and South Sudan is one among the states suffering by ethnic instability. Since independence in 2011 the stability of south Sudan has been extremely fragile, actually south Sudan was considered the foremost fragile country in the world.

This especially has been the case after it began experiencing internal ethnic conflict in December 2013 due to power struggle between President Salva Kiir and his vice chairman Riek Machar. Preventing conflict and ensuring sustainable political and economic stability was complex. Southern Sudan has been embroiled within complexity for many years (Melha and Donnas, 2018).

After independence, the country’s socio-economic challenges were enormous, and unresolved political tensions plunged the country into civil conflict in December 2013, during which an estimated 50,000 civilians have lost their lives, and about 2.3 million people are internally displaced (Rosaline, 2018). Despite a peace agreement, mediated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and signed by the fighters in August 2015, the conflict happened in Juba between government and opposition forces in July 2016 (ibid). That is the gravest challenge facing South Sudan’s fragile peace building and state-building processes. The humanitarian costs of the crisis was extremely high, with one in four people were displaced, four in ten severely food-insecure, and thousands of homes destroyed (Charles and Kudrat, 2017). The interior conflict in South Sudan after independence has political and socio-economic impact for the region.

As an example, it's eroded South Sudan’s previously slim chance of being admitted to the East African Community in 2014. It’s also jeopardized the 20 billion US dollar Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor project between Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, which is to develop a replacement port in Lamu, Kenya and a pipeline from South Sudan. Fighting has already delayed the signing of the agreement on the pipeline, which was scheduled for December 2013 (Beruk, 2012 and Carlo and Thea, 2014).

Hence, conflicts within South Sudan have far-reaching security and economic consequences of the region. As South Sudan is found within the Horn of Africa, instability within the country could have destabilizing and spill over effects on the neighbouring countries. The Horn of Africa as an arena of regional security complex composed of the many states including South Sudan. Hence, unrest in South Sudan would have far reaching impacts on the whole countries of the broader sub-region specially Ethiopia. Furthermore, the political fate of every country within the region has always been inextricably entangled or intertwined there upon of neighbouring states. Indeed, no state within the Horn of Africa has been insulated from the issues of the opposite states regardless of how distant, and no matter how strong or weak (Mulugeta, 2015). The regional conflicts often have local impact for Ethiopia peace and security. The outbreak of conflict in South Sudan in December 2013 has challenged and created spill over effects that threaten stability in Ethiopia’s western Gambella region.

Ethiopia is, in fact, strategically placed to support regional stability, because it's located at the guts of the Horn of Africa and shares borders with all of the region’s states. Addis Ababa led mediation efforts through IGAD and served as a guarantor to the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict within the Republic of South Sudan, signed in August 2015 (Aly, 2017). Ethiopia hosts South Sudanese refugees. So it was most sensitive to the implications of hosting South Sudanese refugees, given concerns that the fragile balance between Anuak and Nuer in its Gambella region would be upset by an influx of South Sudanese Nuer (Elshaddai, 2016). For instance In April 2016, a group of ethnic Murle from South Sudan raided villages in Gambella, killing an estimated 200 people (Melha and Donnas, 2018). Instability of one state can become a source of national security threats to neighbouring states. Therefore it follows that Ethiopia entry in to south Sudan peace process was influenced by the necessity to bring back end the war that threatening regional peace and security. Ethiopia mediation process in South Sudan has important implications for Ethiopia’s domestic security. However Ethiopia and other IGAD member states are actively involved within the south Sudan conflict resolution indeed, this study mainly focus on fill the gap why Ethiopia involve in the mediation process, what is the Ethiopia’s mediation role in south Sudan conflict as a neighbouring state, and how much important the south Sudan mediation is for Ethiopia. So the paper is address to the following questions.

1.3 Research questions

The following are the research questions which guide this research. 1. What is the impact of south Sudan conflict on Ethiopia? 2. What is the Ethiopia’s contribution in the mediation process? 3. Why Ethiopia engages itself in the mediation process in south Sudan conflict? 4. What are the challenges that Ethiopia’s faced during the mediation process? And also what are the opportunities?

1.5 Objective of the study

1.5.1 General objective

The focus of the research is to investigate Ethiopia’s mediation role in south Sudan conflict and, its challenges and implication

1.5.2 Specific objective

• To identify the impact of South Sudan conflict on Ethiopia • To examine Ethiopia’s interests in mediation process of South Sudan conflict • To examine the mediation role of Ethiopia’s in South Sudan conflict • To identify the challenges of Ethiopia’s mediation role in peace efforts in South Sudan.

1.6 Methodology of the study

The qualitative research method is the most significant approach as it conveys and enables the collection of those views, perceptions and expressions. Therefore, this study used qualitative research method.

1.6.1 Research design

According to Grix (2004), Research design refers to the overall strategy chosen to integrate the different components of a study in a coherent and logical way; thereby ensuring that the work effectively addresses the research problem. Therefore, this study employs qualitative research case study research design. The case is bounded by event and time.

1.6.2 Tools of Data Collection

This study employs to the following of qualitative research method of data collection techniques that enable the collection of both primary and secondary data. Primary data collected through the use of semi structured and in depth interview those who are concerned from government official, and scholars. Secondary data collected through diverse published and unpublished sources, relevant journals articles, reports and books. The aim is to capture and discuss the views, perceptions and expressions of government officials, and scholars on the Ethiopia mediation role of the South Sudan conflict.

1.6.3 Sampling Method

The researcher makes used of purposive sampling technique. The researcher select individuals those who are concerned in order to collect the desired data.

1.6.4 Data Analysis

Thematic analysis is a method used for identifying, analyzing, and reporting patterns (themes) within the information. The researcher used thematic analysis in order to provide a brief description and understanding of the outcomes of the research in line with the research objectives. The primary data collections are analyze on the basis of thematic analysis. The data are sort out under the themes of mediation role, main causes of the conflict, challenges of mediation and what its implications. Secondary sources of data analyzed identification and consolidation of articles, journals, books and newspapers.

1.7 Significance of the study

The south Sudan conflict broke out since 2013 after independence and it was ongoing for five years; so it is important to well address, Ethiopia’s mediation role in the conflict. It gives adequate information for any concerned body and fills the knowledge gap about the background of Ethiopia’s mediation role and its challenge and opportunities.

1.8 Scope of the study

This research is not touching all parts of Ethiopia’s role in south Sudan conflict resolution. The study specifically focuses on after independence since 2013 and it give a general understanding of the Ethiopia’s mediation role.

1.9 Organization of the study

This research has five chapters. The first chapter contains the introduction part which mainly explains the background of the study, statement of problem, the research question, general and specific objective, significant and includes scope and limitation of the study. The second chapter contains conceptual and theoretical frame work and literature it related about to the conflict and mediation. The third chapter deals historical experience of Ethiopia in conflict resolution role. The fourth chapter deals about the Ethiopia’s mediation role in south Sudan conflict and what are challenges and its opportunities. Finally, the last chapter contains the conclusion part and it summarizes the whole research by answering the research questions.

1.10 Limitation of the Study

Undertaking this study, the researcher was faced with the following limitations. The first and foremost was the unavailability of the respondents from Ethiopia foreign affairs, that were selected for interviews it was so difficult to meet collect the data from those who are respondents. Out of those who agreed to be interviewed, some respondents did not wish to be recorded and gave their answers on an “off record” basis. Some Appointments in case of time their cancellations were also an obstacle in the undertaking of this study.

1.11 Ethical consideration

The researcher guided by research ethics which is universally accepted. The researcher respect to the dignity of all research participants so as not to use them simply as a means to achieve research objectives. The most important thing that the researcher is performs that he acknowledges the participants and the authors that the researcher used in doing on the study means the researcher tanked for all the participants and authors he has used.

CHAPTER TWO

2. CONCEPTUAL AND THEORETICAL FRAME WORKS AND LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 The concept of conflict

Conflict, which drives from Latin word, it refers to clash or engage in fight, or it is a confrontation between one or more parties aspiring towards incompatible goals (Miller, 2005). Normally Conflict is a clash or disagreement the incapability of goals and values between two or more individuals or groups in a relationship, combined try or effort to control each other and acting against towards each other. Conflicts involving multiple parties, large number of individuals and sophisticated organizations such as nation-states are enormously complicated (Severine, 2002). It is a state of lack of harmony caused by the particular or perceived opposition of needs, values and interests. There is conflict when two states are at war with each other and where battle field events determine their relations (Tewodros, 2015). Conflict does exist, albeit no actions are taken or demands formulated. As an example, sovereign states are inevitably locked into conflict with one another; states are continuously preparing to defend themselves from possible attack so as to guard their own survival (Waltz, 1979).

2.3Theory of conflict

A theory of conflict has been a thoughtful to influence on 19th and 20th-century and continues to regulate political debates to the present day. But there's no single theoretical framework to encompass all conflict. Theories of conflict are the reasons suggest elucidating causes of conflict. The causes of conflict are numerous and sophisticated, thus creating problem of study of specific conflict situations. The theories are advanced to simplify the causes by watching them in categories (Sheriff, 2004). Different scholars used or test a special conflict theory during a different war. However, in south Sudan war we see the three conflict theories.

2.3.1 Ethnic diversity theory

Ethnic diversity theory is a theory it argues that a states ethnically diverse the societies suffer more serious internal conflicts. There are two noticeable facts about social conflict that to be.

First, within country conflicts account for a huge share of deaths and hardship within the world today, second, internal conflicts often appear to be ethnic in nature. Quite half the civil conflicts recorded since the top of the Second war are classified as ethnic or religious (Joan, Laura and Debarj, 2012). Actually ethnicity is often an instrument of socio-political mobilization and may also inspire organized violence and political instability (International crisis group, 2014). Conflict theory anticipates that individuals in diverse settings will compete for scarce resources along group lines, thereby increasing the salience and relevance of existing ethnic differences (Joan, Laura and Debarj, 2012). Generally this theory it argues that the collection of the society mostly is that the reason for the conflict.

2.3.2 Economic/Structural theory

The economic or structural conflicts of theory attempts to explain conflict as a product of the tension that arises when groups compete for scarce recourses. Disproportionate or imbalance distributions of economic resource are the cause of the civil war (Mulugeta, 2015). In this theory there is a relationship between a country’s economic performance and its vulnerability to the onset of civil war (Sambanis 2004). The two most common factors used to assess the impact of economic theory of conflict are income levels and economic growth. The former holds that the onset of large-scale violent conflict is related to the existence of economic deterioration and lower income levels that are significantly associated with higher civil war risks (Lindemann, 2008). The structural or economic conflict of theory explicates that the economic undercurrents is a conflict of causation. There is considerable interface between politics, power, resources or value and scarcity. People seek power because it is a method to an end, more often, economic ends. Communities feud over farmlands, grazing fields, water resource etc and groups fight government over allocation of resources or revenue. Scarcity, wants, needs, or the fear of scarcity is commonly actuation for political power, contention for resource control (Sheriff, 2004).

The fear of poverty and deprivation could lead to fraud or corruption; so is threat of or real famine, deprivation, mismanagement of scarce resources, could propel conflict over resource control (ibid). The Root causes of failed economy and a weak state, is typically a poor country with an unequal distribution of incomes run by an authoritarian regime. Violence and war lord’s

entrepreneurs organize unemployed youths into armed groups. They may initially be motivated by political goals, but over time they tend to resort to criminal activities for financing rebellion which becomes entrenched as a way of life (Tewodros, 2015). In structural theory a nation that is developed in terms of infrastructural facilities, it is difficult for conflict actors and entrepreneurs to operate freely. As indicated by the details of the structural theory, actors of conflict that are economically-motivated needs poorly developed environments to function unreservedly (Alfred and Good news, 2016). And also the rising poverty equals rising conflict.

2.3.3 Manipulative Elite theory

This theory of civil war assumes fragility in ethnic group relations and social construction of identities, but focuses on top-down rather than bottom-up mobilization (Gagnon, 1994). Elites contend for power by manipulating social divisions and blowing them out of proportion with threat, fear and hate discourse and propaganda, ruling out compromise and pursuing aggressive crisis politics (ibid). Manipulative Elite theory is an opportunity cantered conflict theory in as much as elites create opportunities with issues and crisis to advance their interests and goals (Tilly, 2003 and Oberschall, 2010). Conciliation is difficult when rival leaders demonize their adversaries as those who can never be trusted and must therefore be defeated, dominated or ethnically cleansed (Oberschall, 2010). In order to facilitate conciliation there is pressure and sanctions by external states and international agencies on ethno-national leaders (ibid). This theory argues that the cause of conflict is power competition or struggle of the political elite.

2.4 The context of conflict in south Sudan

The Horn of Africa is one of the conflict-liable areas in Africa therefore, the countries of the region are consistently high levels of violence, within and across borders therefore, south Sudan is one of the turbulence states in this region. More of South Sudan’s history leading up to secession was marred by civil conflict with the Sudanese government. Emanating from accusations that the government was intending to renege on intentions to create a federalist state upon independence from Egypt, southern rebels began a civil war lasting almost two decades from 1955-1972. Conflict arose once again in 1983, lasting until a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed in 2005 (Yohhanes, 2015).

On July 9, 2011, South Sudan, the newest nation in the world, was born. Unfortunately on December 15, 2013 South Sudan once again slides back to conflict and fight between the South Sudan Presidential guards triggered what later become labelled a “Civil war” (International Crisis Group, 2014). South Sudan is a multi- ethnic diverse state, no ethnic group constitutes a majority, but the Dinka and the Nuer make up 4.8 million or 57 per cent of South Sudan’s population (John, 2015). The two ethnic groups share a common culture, have similar languages, and mostly share the same spiritual beliefs, practice and an agro-pastoralist economy (ibid). South Sudan is one of African country having multi-ethnicity countries and it have around 60 ethnic groups but only few ethnic groups specially Dinka and the Nuer and in less degree Murle are dominant in political and economic sectors, This inequality share of political and economic resources create incompatible interests; inequitable access to political space, economic and other opportunities; and inter-group identity competition (Solomon and Hussein, 2011). The young nation hasn’t fared well since the optimism that was felt around the world when the Republic gained its independence on 9 July 2011. The violent conflict that erupted in South Sudan and pushed the country towards civil war is the result of diverse factors. These are: political disputes between members of the country's leadership, a dysfunctional political system, and historical distrust between the Dinka and the Nuer (Koos and Gutschke, 2014). Tension began in December 2013 after independence, when a power struggle within the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement divided the political party (Muhabie, 2018 and Yohannes, 2019). President Salva Kiir to hold leadership of the movement and his vice president Machar resigned from government to form the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) In Opposition.

The main actors of this armed conflict were President Salva Kiir and his former Vice President Rick Machar (Awolowich, 2019). The split factors a new civil war between the two men’s supporters. It started in Juba but by the start of 2014 it had spread out across the whole country. Sudan had once again descended into disorder assisted in no small way by the interference of its neighbours. Both Uganda and Sudan are reported to have backed factions during the war (Yohannes, 2019). A number of senior Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) members, including Machar and the SPLM’s Secretary-General, Pagan Amum, had increasingly viewed president Kiir’s leadership as autocratic. Kiir’s decision was apparently also further driven by Machar’s aspirations to run as the SPLM's presidential candidate in the upcoming elections in 2015 (Sudd Institute, 2014). However, Machar denied having anything to do with the beginning

of conflict. Despite the fact that he announced officially himself the commander of the Sudan People Liberation Movement or Army (SPLM/A) in Opposition, an armed opposition group, In the week that followed, eleven members of the SPLM/A elite, including its secretary general Pagan Amum, former ministers, and the former SPLA chief of staff were captured under charges of the attempted coup. Several SPLA commanders defected from the army to meet together and join a rebellion that had been born (Alex, 2014). The civil war which followed forced tens of thousands of people to be killed and displacement of millions of peoples in neighbouring countries and almost half of the population of the country let to rely on aid (Mehari and Abel, 2013 and Tamene, 2019).

After the war began, many regional and international leaders saw the opportunity to exercise and achieve their political interests in the event of South Sudan conflict. This has led to the sharpen division among the regional and international players with some supporting South Sudan’s government led by Salva Kiir Mayardit (SPLM/A-IG) and the Armed Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) led by Dr. Riek Machar Teny on the basis of who should serve one’s interest between the two (Joseph, 2018). Internationally, the super powers have made South Sudan a testing ground for their foreign policies. They have counted themselves as great countries that have gone so far politically, military, economically and technologically thus, fear to face each other in a direct way and resorted only in transferring their resource gains political dichotomy to other poor countries where they test and rate their political and military (Joseph, 2018).

2.5 The concept of Mediation

The origin of mediation is the interaction between two or more parties who may be disputants, negotiators, or interacting parties whose relationship could be improved by the mediator's intervention (James A., 2001). Mediation is the name given to a variety of procedures which can be used to resolve disputes without recourse to the courts (Peter, 1997). The field of mediation is wide (Wall and Dunne, 2012). Mediation is an Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) method and it is a confidential process, neutral person and impartial third party, the mediator uses specialized communication techniques and negotiation techniques to support the parties in reaching solutions (Marightto, 2004). The group of procedures known generically as mediation allow parties to disputes to resolve them and remain in an equitable relationship. Mediation is effectively a ‘without prejudice’ process, whereby the parties to a dispute are assisted by a

neutral third party to resolve the dispute on terms which hopefully all will find acceptable (Peter, 1997). It is a way of resolving conflicts amicably and mutually, it is widely used to handle disputes and it is a process in which a third party intervenes in a conflict to bring about a peaceful settlement between the disputants and contribute to successive transformation of the conflict (Kristina and Anna, 2013 and Dinara, 2016). According to anthropologist and sociologist, analysed mediation has been applied for centuries in different cultural contexts, with its primary interests in the social order of societies and the use of formal and informal mechanisms for enforcing laws and handling disputes, reveals the widespread use of mediation in cross-cultural perspective (Kristina and Anna, 2013).

Mediation has developed into significant tool for peace making in armed conflict and subsequently stimulated an expanding research area of central importance in international peace research (Peter and Isak, 2014). Mediation is not synonymous with peacemaking or power-based diplomacy; it is one strategy within the broader conceptual framework of peacemaking (Africa Union, 2009). Other peacemaking strategies include: “arbitration and adjudication; unilateral action by one of the disputant parties; domestic political reform by making governance more inclusive; confidence and security building measures; and the offer of inducements to, and application of pressure on, one or more of the parties by international organisations and foreign powers (Nathan, 2009). Mediation is one of practices and strategies of conflict management like Negotiation, Arbitration, Litigation and others. The term mediation is frequently used to describe almost any conflict resolution process. Conflict resolution implies interventions in relation among states and peoples. Any attempt of conflict management by external actors presents an involvement in the internal affairs of foreign country (Hoffmann, 1992). Hence given that such third party intervention might clash with the norm of sovereignty (Peter and Isak, 2014). Therefore Mediation is widely used to handle disputes most generally, mediation can be defined as a process in which to third party intervention in a conflict to bring about a peaceful settlement between the disputants and contribute to a successive transformation of the conflict (Kristina and Anna, 2013). Mediation is an informal, voluntary and confidential process in which a trained professional dispute resolver (the mediator) facilitates understanding, communication and negotiation between disputing parties and assists those parties in reaching their own mutually acceptable resolution to their dispute (Emmanuel, 2006). Mediation according to Malcolm

(2008), is generally seen as the intervention of skilled and impartial intermediary working to facilitate a mutually acceptable negotiation settlement on the issues that are the substance of the dispute between the parties. Mediation is the most common form of third party intervention but it is in theory and practice usually argument by number of other methods. Because Conflict resolution implies interventions in relations among states and peoples (John, 1986). Mediation is a method of mitigating the concerns through the presence and support of an intermediary peacemaker who is not party to the conflict, who enjoys the trust of the disputants, and whose goal is to help them to forge agreements they find acceptable (Africa Union, 2009). By virtue of these characteristics the mediator serves as both a buffer and a bridge between the antagonists, ameliorating the anger and suspicion that prevent them from addressing in a co- operative manner the substantive issues in dispute. The parties’ common trust in the mediator offsets their mutual distrust and raises their confidence in negotiations. Unlike an arbitrator who might rule in favour of one of the disputants, and unlike a partisan actor whose interests are inimical to those of a disputant, a mediator seeks to facilitate agreements in an even-handed fashion and on terms acceptable to the parties. These features of mediation render the process a non-threatening venture and mitigate the pathology of distrust (Nathan, 2005). Mediation is the most common form of third party intervention but it is in theory and practice usually argument by number of other methods. Because Conflict resolution implies interventions in relations among states and peoples (John, 1986).

In fact, Mediation different from negotiation, in that parties with apparently incompatible demands turn over the dispute resolution process, but not the dispute itself, to the mediator. Mediation differs from arbitration, in that a mediator makes no the decision as to how the case should be resolved, rather the mediator guides the parties in making this determination. Mediation differs from case evaluation, in that the mediator makes no finding as to the value of the claims and there is no penalty if the mediation is unsuccessful. Mediation differs from litigations, in that it’s quicker and less expensive and allows the parties’ workout their own solutions in private rather than judge or jury in a lengthy, expensive and formal process (Dr. Emmanuel, 2006 and Malcolm, 2008). Most probably mediation is successful because they have optimal opportunity for direct communication of each party. Distinguishing feature of mediation from arbitration is that mainly focuses on empowerment and recognition, and also mediation is persistent. It starts with the time of dispute and continues until the parties they agree (ibid).

Mediation highly encourages the active and direct participation of the parties to solve their dispute. Though the mediator and other participant also have active role in mediation, especially the parties play key role in the mediation process and they are encouraged to explain the background of the dispute, and generate options for agreements and make a final decision (Christopher, 1989). The core value of Mediation is self-determination. The outcome is determined by the dispute parties based on their interest and values. This aspect of mediation is part of the democratic decision-making process because the participants themselves decide the outcome (Ibid). The mediation process is informal, which means not governed by the rule of evidence and they never follow the formal procedure. Mediation brings an efficient, effective, speedy, opportune and less expensive process to resolve a dispute with self-respect, mutual respect and in good manners. During the mediation process if they fail to settle the dispute they never blame the mediators (Rao, 1996).

Mediation and Conciliation are terms which most of the time are used interchangeably. Of course the difference is not clear but they have slight difference. Both of them involve neutral third party to solve dispute However, in mediation, the mediator’s role is clearly a facilitative role. The mediators not have any power to evaluation on what they decided after discussion, but a conciliator after discussion if the parties unable to solve the dispute the conciliators make a proposal to the parties or can comment and recommendation to solve their dispute (Kinney and Higgins, 2011).

2.6 Theory of Mediation

In fact officially there is no mediation theory and its practice scholar’s agreement. However, I tried to see two theories such as negotiation and power sharing theory of mediation.

2.6.1 Negotiation theory

Negotiation is that the process whereby two or more parties, who are faced with a problem of conflict about some limited resources, try to agree on how best to solve the problem or resolve the conflict. Negotiation can be viewed as any kind of communication adopted with the aim of reaching a common ground and compromise. It is also any form of verbal communication, direct or indirect, whereby parties to a conflict of interest discuss, without resort to arbitration or other judicial processes, take a joint action to manage the dispute between them (Emmanuel, 2006). He

or she the third party helps, the conflict parties to succeed in a mutually satisfying agreement. Facilitation involves the utilization techniques to enhance the flow of information in a meeting between parties in disputes. In this theory when negotiation takes place between two opposite parties, the main purpose of the negotiation is that whether the negotiation results in an ‘agreement or stalemate’, whether the negotiation produces efficient mutual benefits between the two contender parties and is the negotiation may be evaluated in terms of distribution of benefits between the parties (Dawit, 2015).

2.6.2 Power-Sharing Theory

Power-sharing has been defined as “ a set of principles that, when carried out through practices and institutions, provide every significant identity group or segment in a society representation and decision-making abilities on common issues and a degree of autonomy over problem with importance to the group (Katabaro, 2012). It basically means the participation of the representatives of all significant groups in political decision-making at the level of the executive, the legislature, the judiciary, and the army. Therefore, the aim of power sharing is to reduce majority of one party or ethnic group that in danger the security of other ethnic group. Politicians have argued that power-sharing is becoming a great tool to settle conflict and civil wars in Africa within last two decades. Underlying these definitions is the existence of competing groups, regarded in Africa as ethnic groups and elsewhere as elites. Power-sharing is an arrangement through which these groups manage their differences. These arrangements can and have take place at four levels: political, territorial, military and economic (Katia, 2007). Power-sharing theory would encourage weaker parties to engage in continuous conflict with the government with the aim of achieving power-sharing status in the future government. Power-sharing arrangements whether political, military, economic or territorial have been a component of most peace agreements since the 1990s. Even when implementation is relatively successful, critics question the sustainability of power-sharing agreements (Denis and Andreas, 2005).

They point out that power-sharing agreements signal to political actors that violence pays that they are more of an obstacle to sustainable conflict resolution since power-sharing usually only comes about through massive international commitment, which often declines during implementation. And finally that they primarily serve the interests of power-hungry politicians and warlords without addressing the actual causes of conflicts (Andreas, 2009). On the last point,

proponents counter that peace negotiations cannot succeed unless they bring together only those actors who can cause an agreement to fail. Including a broader range of negotiating parties would dilute the influence of such veto players who would therefore also lose interest in a solution (ibid).The Addis Ababa Peace Agreement of 1972 can be taken as one of the best example of power sharing in the conflict of North and south Sudan before the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) 2005. The Agreement had reached between the Government of Sudan and Southern Sudan, in that agreement for the first time the Southern Sudan got their autonomy status. The main agenda in the peace agreement was an equal distribution of national budget, economic development and equal share of political power in Sudan (Dawit, 2015). A power- sharing theory is that the arrangements are inflexible (Katabaro, 2012). And also it promote ethnic division and unlikely to promote stability in the long run (ibid).

2.7 Models of Mediation

Mediation is assistance to two or more interacting parties by third parties who usually have no authority to impose an outcome (James A., 2001). Therefore, when disputants involved in a serious conflict want to avoid that conflict, there are models or approaches of mediation can be an effective alternative (Katie, 2020). Once mediation is under way, what techniques do such third parties employ? In mediation, a trained mediator tries to help the disputants find common ground using principles of collaborative, mutual-gains negotiation (ibid). Which mediation strategy is successful depends not only on the configuration of the conflict, but also on the characteristics of the mediator. Mediators with little leverage such as representatives of small states or non-governmental organisations have to convince conflict parties that they are absolutely impartial (Kyle, 2013). Their strategy will necessarily focus on creating trust between the conflicting parties. By contrast, a mediator who represents world powers and can bring their influence to bear will rely more on international pressure to push the conflict parties towards compromise, and on third-state guarantees to ensure the implementation of an agreement (ibid). The peace agreement Most of the time is failed or delayed within the strategies or approaches of the third party engagement. The minimum requirement is that the conflict disputants agree to mediation. Yet For instance Libya, Syria, Yemen and other countries peace agreement are failed in case of the technique of mediation. For example, in 2016, a Joint announcement on Libya, signed by Egypt, Italy, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, and others reaffirmed UN

Special Representative of the Secretary General. The European Union, African Union, the League of Arab States, and United Nations issued a joint statement in 2017 reaffirming their support for the UN’s coordination role and leadership. Unfortunately, since 2011, external actors continued to provide military and financial support to their Libyan proxies, because of achieve own national interest in flouting to United Nations Security Council resolutions, undermining UN mediation efforts all the intervene role of the peace agreements of Libya was not facilitation approach just its forcefully intervention to achieve their own national interest not only Libya but also Yemen, Syria, Somalia and others the peace agreement is failed in case of third party intervention mediation approaches (Wolfram, 2018).

2.7.1 Facilitative Model of Mediation

In the 1960's and 1970's there was only one type of mediation being taught and practiced which is now being called "Facilitative Mediation"(Zena, 2000). Facilitative Mediation is a process which involves people in dispute talking to one another about their conflict and how they will resolve it (Kenneth M, 2007). In facilitative mediation, the mediator structures a process to assist the parties in reaching a mutually agreeable resolution (ibid). It provides a structure and agenda for the discussion and the parties with the assistance of a Mediator to work towards a mutually satisfactory resolution. The mediator asks questions; validates and normalizes parties' points of view; searches for interests underneath the positions taken by parties; and assists the parties in finding and analyzing options for resolution. The facilitative mediator does not make recommendations to the parties, give his or her own advice or opinion as to the outcome of the case, or predict what a court would do in the case. The mediator is in charge of the process, while the parties are in charge of the outcome (Zena, 2000). Mediation is a confidential method to enter into while not pressure or prejudice (ibid).

The mediator does not disclose any information discussed or provided during the mediation conference. The only documents made available to both parties are the “Agreement to mediate” and the “Final Mediation Agreement”. The mediation session is conducted by a neutral third party referred to as “Mediator” those who facilitate the discussion between the parties in dispute. The aim of the Mediator is to assist the parties to reach an agreement. The general perception of Facilitative mediation is the Mediator is focused on facilitating the disputing parties in coming to a resolution on their own (Kenneth M, 2007). The role of facilitative mediator is to assist 18

disputing parties to make their own decisions and evaluate their own situations (Carole, 2002). According to Carole (2002), Facilitative mediation is based on two guiding principles: firstly, self-determination of the parties with respect to resolution of their disputes. Secondly, the neutral third party or the mediator who facilitates communication among the parties, promotes understanding of the issues, focuses the parties on their interests and seeks creative problem- solving and including creative solutions outside the legal normative box in order to enable the parties to reach their own agreements and resolutions to their problems (ibid).

Facilitative mediation focuses primarily on the interests of the parties (Robin, 2002). A facilitative mediator seeks to increase understanding between parties, explores their interests instead of promoting a position, creates a collaborative environment, and helps parties create a solution that is unique to their situation (Katie, 2020). In a typical facilitative mediation, the mediator asks questions in order to understand the situation and subtly directs the parties to explore options and potential outcomes. Under the facilitative approach, the parties expect the mediator to interfere as little as possible with the parties' discussion. Instead, they expect the mediator merely to facilitate and guide the discussion so that negotiations do not break down (Joseph, 1997).The mediator should allow disputants to express their sides of the issue and offer them an opportunity to be heard.

2.7.2 Evaluative Model of Mediation

Evaluative mediation is a process modelled on settlement conferences held by judges (Zena, 2000). Evaluative mediation is a type of mediation in which mediators are more likely to make recommendations and suggestions and to express opinions (Katie, 2020). Instead of focusing primarily on the underlying interests of the parties involved, evaluative mediators may be more likely to help parties assess the legal merits of their arguments and make fairness determinations. Evaluative mediation is most often used in court-mandated mediation, and evaluative mediators are often attorneys who have legal expertise in the area of the dispute (ibid). An evaluative mediator assists the parties in reaching resolution by pointing out the weaknesses of their cases, and predicting what a judge or jury would be likely to do. An evaluative mediator might make formal or informal recommendations to the parties as to the outcome of the issues (Joseph, 1997). Evaluative mediators are concerned with the legal rights of the parties rather than needs and interests, and evaluate based on legal concepts of fairness. Evaluative mediators meet most

often in separate meetings with the parties and their attorneys, practicing “shuttle diplomacy” (Lela, 1997).

An evaluative mediator focuses on the underlying substance and cause of a dispute. The mediator does not ignore the interests of the parties; rather, he/she has a more practical focus than in a purely facilitative mediation. Due to this broader legal focus, the parties generally expect an evaluative mediator to have a legal background (Kenneth M, 2007). Furthermore, unlike a facilitative mediator, it is essential for an evaluative mediator to have at least some substantive experience with the subject matter in dispute (Leonard, 1996). A mediator considered qualified to give such opinions must have training, experience, and objectivity (ibid). The role of an evaluative mediator requires more than skilfully guiding the disputant conversations (Zena, 2000).

2.7.3 Transformative mediation

The transformative approach to third-party practice is based on certain premises about both the effects and the dynamics of intervention (Bush and Folger, 1994). One major premise of the approach is that processes like mediation have the potential to generate transformative effects, and that these effects are highly valuable for the parties and for society (ibid). They rejected the traditional facilitative and evaluative mediation styles in favour of a more relationship-oriented approach designed to transform disputing parties into relatively self-sufficient problem solvers (Charles B., 2015). They believe that many persons have difficulty negotiating with others because they feel they have no meaningful power to influence the bargaining outcomes. Transformative mediators struggle to empower weak-feeling parties by demonstrating the rights and external options available to those persons both through settlement and non-settlement alternatives. They also work to help the participants understand the positions taken by their counterparts and recognize even if they do not accept the validity of those positions (Robert Bush and Folger, 2005). Transformative mediation is based on the values of empowerment of each of the parties as much as possible, and recognition by each of the parties of the other parties' needs, interests, values and points of view. The potential for transformative mediation is that any or all parties or their relationships may be transformed during the mediation. Transformative

mediators meet with parties together, since only they can give each other recognition (Zena, 2000).

Unlike facilitative and evaluative mediators who are particularly interested in resolutions of the underlying disputes, transformative conciliators are primarily interested in future party relationships. Transformative interveners focus on two basic issues: party empowerment and inter-party recognition (Zena, 2000 and Charles B., 2015). Generally facilitative mediation approach is a better model to solve the conflict and to mediate the disputants because, A facilitative mediator seeks to increase understanding between parties, explores their interests instead of promoting a position, creates a collaborative environment, and helps parties create a solution that is unique to their situation. The mediator asks questions; validates and normalizes parties' points of view; searches for interests under the positions taken by parties; and assists the parties in finding and analyzing options for resolution. The facilitative mediator does not make recommendations to the parties, give his or her own advice or opinion as to the outcome of the case, or predict what a court would do in the case. The mediator is in charge of the process, while the parties are in charge of the outcome. Facilitative mediators want to ensure that parties come to agreements based on information and understanding.

2.8 The Role of Mediator and its determinant factors

As a general Conflict management” is a generic term for a wide variety of approaches and methods of dealing with conflict situations so, Conflict management should be understood as a process designed to stop the destructive aspects of a conflict and realize its constructive potential. This can be achieved through, among other things, negotiation, arbitration, adjudication, fact-finding, peace-keeping and mediation itself. To intervene means “to enter into an ongoing system of relationships, to come between or among persons, groups, or objects for the purpose of helping them. Mediation is a method of conflict resolution in which conflicting parties gather to seek solutions to their problems, accompanied by a mediator who facilitates discussion and the flow of information, aiding in the processes of reaching agreement (Bercovitch, 2006). The point about intervention is that it regularly involves a third party. Third parties change conflicts, often for the better, just by being present. Third parties can play many roles. They may act formally or informally. They may act as individuals, or as representatives of

some larger group. They may be invited to participate by the conflicting parties, or they may intervene spontaneously. Usually an effective third party will be impartial; however there are occasions when a partial role can be helpful. Third parties may be limited to advising the parties, or they may be able to make binding decisions for the parties. They may intervene in conflicts between individuals or between groups. Some third parties will focus on the substance of the dispute, while others focus on improving the conflict process (Emmanuel, 2006). In mediation, the mediator is an independent third party acts with the task of facilitating, proposing or directing the unfolding of a consensual agreement between the disputing parties and as a facilitator the mediator is to bring about an agreement between the disputing parties as to the terms of a settlement of the dispute. The parties negotiate the terms of a settlement agreement between themselves, with the assistance and guidance of the mediator. Therefore, mediator has their own role to achieve or solve the conflict problems (Laue J., 1990). The mediator usually takes time before the first session to meet with the parties individually. The purpose of the initial meeting is to give the mediator the opportunity to hear the positions of each of the parties and to identify the issues that are in dispute (Charles B., 2015).

The main role of mediators is to ensure that they are neutral participants in the meetings. The mediator is trained to assist the parties to listen to one another and to make sure that everyone feels that they are being heard. The mediator assists the parties to exchange their opinions without needless conflict and helps them to solve one problem at a time. The mediator will, with the agreement of the parties, give suggestions, if he or she feels that the discussions are stalled (Peter, 1997). The parties play the “main” and active role in the process of mediation. They are the decision makers and the final solution will be taken by their free will. They shall be well informed about the process and are free to ask questions, make statements, proposals and provide any documents. They have to respect other participants in the process of mediation. Mediation is most successful if the participants themselves have considered what will likely happen if they do not settle their dispute in the mediation (ibid).

Mediators endeavour to regenerate party-to-party discussions to enable the bargaining participants to structure their own deals. They think that temporary impasses are caused by communication breakdowns and/or unrealistic expectations. They strive to reopen communication channels and to induce negotiators to re-evaluate the reasonableness of their

respective positions. They ask many questions that are designed to prompt the participants to reconsider their positions and to encourage the parties to explore new areas. Once facilitative interveners generate meaningful bargaining exchanges, they let the participants decide what terms are best for themselves. They prefer to conduct joint sessions during which the parties engage in face-to-face bargaining (Charles B., 2015).

2.9 Factors of mediation

Mediation is a widely used conflict-resolution technique in dealing with international and inter- ethnic conflicts. International mediation and practice often dwells on third-party engagements that succeed major phases of violence (Reina Z, 2015). But UN efforts haven’t succeeded in ending protracted conflicts, including in Somalia, Libya, Syria, and Yemen etc. Mediation however, suggests that, once a peace agreement has been signed, the implementation stage may be yet another challenging episode. Therefore, in the mediation process there are different factors and determinates that influence of the mediation process such as, the mediator behaviour or character, the disputant behaviour and the relationships of the mediator with the parties (Bercovitch and Houston, 2000).

2.9.1 The characters of mediator

The mediator behaviour or the characteristics of the mediators have their own impact in international mediation whether state, institution or individuals therefore there are various ways in which mediator activities can be identified (Bercovitch and Houston, 2000). Traditional research and explanations of mediators' activities were shrouded in terms like neutrality, voluntary, concessions, and impartiality, which describe the expectations related to the practice of mediation but obscure any understanding of its processes. Alternatively, mediator activities were organized conceptually to explain mediator behaviour in terms of assorted preordained roles and tactics (Laue J., 1990). The practice of mediation revolves round the choice of strategic behaviours that mediators believe will facilitate the sort of outcome they seek to realize within the conflict management process. A mediator could also be less reactive and more practical and systematic in his or her behaviour than previously thought. That is, mediators could also be seen as skilled practitioners of a learned craft. A mediator's behaviour depends on the perceived role

or purpose and therefore the resources and techniques available to him or her within the particular dispute context (Bercovitch and Houston, 2000). Effective mediators possess variety of common characteristics, regardless of which styles they employ. They’re objective persons who are awake to their own potential biases. They need excellent communication skills (Reina, 2015). Generally if the mediators more only depend on their own interest, the mediation may be affect not only the mediator behaviour but mediation strategies or techniques is also a factor of mediation. We can see the failed state such as Syria, Libya, Yemen and Somalia mostly the mediation process of these countries are failed in case of the super powers intervention and their own interest (Arthur, 2020). For instance In December 2015, Libyan politicians signed an agreement in Skhirat (Morocco) to form a transitional government. The agreement was aimed at transcend the country’s political divide after the eruption of civil war in mid-2014 had put an end to the post-2011 transitional process. Unfortunately the peace agreement is still ineffective because the negotiation process was only in the interest of foreign intervention and influenced them (Wolfram, 2018). The influence of regional and international actors in Libya reflects a wider regional struggle that has spilled over into Libya. There was disagreement among participants as to the degree to which regional actors dictated the agenda on the ground.

2.9.2 The behaviour of the disputants

Another determinants factor of mediation is the characteristics of the disputant parties. The fragmentation of conflict actors has also multiplied the number of agendas at stake, creating additional challenges for mediators. Mediators are faced with a complicated mix of local grievances, proxy interests, ideological or religious fissures, business interests, and criminal incentives all in an environment where the state has lost legitimacy. Against this background, peace negotiations are increasingly difficult, and their outcomes are fragile and contested (Arthur, 2020). The process and effectiveness of negotiations and mediation efforts are related primarily to the integrative potential of the parties to the dispute, that is, the level of concern they have for each other relative to their own interest (Bercovitch and Houston, 2000). The interest and status of the disputant parties are the determinants factor of mediation (ibid).

2.9.3 The relationships of the mediator with the parties

The relationships of ethnic and religious and others of the mediator with the disputant is another factor of the mediation. For instance In October 2009, the Turkish government was initiated its own mediation efforts to strengthen the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia through series of processes. The cultural and social bonds the two countries have enjoyed give Bosnia a special place in Turkey’s foreign policy agenda. Turkey supported Bosnia Herzegovina in many capacities: during the dissolution of former Yugoslavia, Turkey supplied arms to the Bosnian fighters despite a United Nations-sponsored arms embargo. Following the Dayton agreement, Turkey has engaged with the Implementation Council. Turkey had also supported Croatia’s mediation efforts to bring Bosnian Croats and Bosnian Muslims under the Federation of Bosnia- Herzegovina under the 1994 Washington agreement (Reina, 2015).

CHAPTER THREE

3. THE HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE OF ETHIOPIA IN CONFLICT RESOLUTION

Albeit Ethiopia has not been individual experience role of conflict resolution history except the 1972 Addis Ababa mediation peace agreement of between Sudan and south Sudan (before south Sudan independence). But Ethiopia has been active participation, disciplined position intellectual competence and continued engagement with the UN, AU, and IGAD. That role in regional peace and security, peacekeeping, counter terrorism and make mediation demand for long term partnership and alliances in the region and beyond (Mehari, 2014). Ethiopia has a hegemonic power and it increasingly described as a regional power in the Horn of Africa, in consideration of its military and diplomatic power and demographic size (Kidist, 2014). Ethiopia is an important international diplomatic actor, as host of the African Union and chair of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) regional bloc. Ethiopia has been actively participated in the mediation process to defuse and resolve conflict between Sudan and South Sudan (Mehari, 2014 and Kidist, 2014).

In 1972, the third party mediator, Ethiopia had participated in the peace process which representatives of the Northern Sudan and the Southern Sudan reached a historic agreement to end the first bloody civil war in Sudan by way of mediation. However, the Addis Ababa mediation Peace Agreement had faced serious challenges for its implementation and as a result in 1983 it failed to bring sustainable peace between the two peoples (Dawit, 2015). Ethiopia also recognizes the diplomatic and foreign relations leverage that peacekeeping contributions bring in pursuing its foreign policy objectives in both bilateral and multilateral frameworks and it has a long history of participation in United Nations (UN) peace operations dating back to the 1950s. The country’s first major participation in an UN-authorized operation was as part of the UN Command Multinational Force in the Korean War 1950-53 (Solomon, 2017). Ethiopia has provided considerable numbers of forces for UN operations in Rwanda, Burundi, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Abyei, Darfur and South Sudan. Most of Ethiopia’s recent UN peacekeeping deployments have been in the Sudan: to the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS), the UN-AU Hybrid Mission to Darfur (UNAMID), the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), and the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) (Solomon, 2017 and Mehari, 2017). It’s a key partner in peacekeeping missions in Somalia and the contested region of Abyei on the Sudan and South Sudan border, as well as facilitating regional negotiations to end the civil conflict in South Sudan (Tedros, 2015).

3.1The role of Ethiopia in peace keeping

According to United Nations, peacekeeping is one of the most effective tools available to the United Nations to assist host countries navigating the difficult path from conflict to peace and create conditions for lasting peace. Peacekeeping operations use diplomatic, civil and military means normally in pursuit of United Nations Charter purposes and principles to maintain peace Such as, include conflict prevention, peace-making, peace enforcement, peacekeeping, peace building and support to humanitarian assistance where no sole civilian alternative exists. Ethiopia has been a long history in playing a great role in conflict resolution and peacekeeping in the region, in Africa and in the world (Wagari, 2017).

Since the establishment of the United Nations Ethiopia has been participated in United Nations (UN) peace operations dating back to the 1950s and Ethiopia has participated in more than ten

peacekeeping missions at continental and global level. The country’s was first major participation in a United Nations authorized operation as part of the United Nations Command Multinational Force in the Korean War (1950-53) (Solomon, 2017 and Mehari, 2018). Ethiopia ranks first on the troop contributions to United Nations peacekeeping operations around the world (Wagari, 2017). In 1951 the Imperial Guard of Ethiopia 3,518 soldiers of, the Kagnew Battalion, were sent to Korea to fight alongside the United Nations forces as part of the United States led 7th Division (Kinfe, 2007). Hence, Ethiopia was one of the sixteen nations to intervene in the Korean crisis and was one of the few non-NATO states to contribute a contingent of UN forces in South Korea and the only independent African state which participated in the mission (Djinnit, 2016). Ethiopia’s second contribution was in a United Nations Operation in the Congo. The mission lasted from July 1960 to June 1964 and Ethiopia sent one battalion with 1,200 troops. Though it was Ethiopia’s first UN blue helmets operations, Ethiopian Lieutenant-General Kebbede Gebre was Force Commander from April 1962 to July 1963. Ethiopia didn’t participate in any United Nations peacekeeping mission after the establishment of the military government called Derg in 1974 until the end of the cold war. Ethiopia resumed its participation in peacekeeping after the fall of the military government, Derg in 1991. Its first mission was in Rwanda in 1994 (Kinfe, 2007). Since January 2016, Ethiopia has been the top contributor and since 2012 it has been one of the top four contributors in the world by exchanging places with Bangladesh, Pakistan and India. Bangladesh was the highest single contributor in United Nations history, contributing 9,380 troops, police and military experts in 2015. Furthermore, Ethiopia has been sending troops to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) since 2014 and the Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) are stationed bilaterally in Somalia which is outside Ethiopia’s contribution to AMISOM to provide support for the Somali National Armed Forces (Kaleab, 2018).

Ethiopia has been contributed fifteen police officers since December 2008 which was the first police deployment for Ethiopia for UNMIS and when UNMIS was deployed in South Sudan it also began sending its police officers and by February 2017, it sent 23 police officers, 11 military experts and 1,277 contingent troops, becoming the second largest contributor, only behind India. United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) UNISFA’s establishment came in June 2011, after the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) reached an agreement in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to demilitarize Abyei, which was

claimed by both sides and let Ethiopian troops monitor the area also called Temporary Arrangements for the Administration and Security of the Abyei Area (ibid). UNISFA is exceptional for the reason that unlike most peacekeeping missions in the world it is almost entirely composed of Ethiopian peace troops. February 2017, Ethiopia has been contributed 4,426 personnel. The fact that both parties requested the Ethiopian force, the Addis Ababa Agreement on Abyei expressed the trust which Ethiopia enjoys in both Khartoum and Juba (Mehari, 2018). With United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), Ethiopia currently has close to 7000 troops in various UN peacekeeping missions. This makes Ethiopia one of the top five troop contributing countries on both African and global level (Solomon, 2017 and Mehari, 2018).

3.2 Ethiopia’s involvement in peace keeping operations

Peacekeepers are increasingly responsible for maintaining peace in the neighbourhood. However, neither peacekeeping research nor practice systematically disaggregates the category of local conflicts. Local generally refers to sub-state dynamics with little distinction between communal and other types of conflict. There is near consensus that local conflict dynamics do not necessarily mirror national ones in civil war (Krause, 2019).

Alex and Paul D. (2012) stated that five reasons why states contribute to United Nations peacekeeping, these are: political, economic, security, institutional and normative reasons. Politically, peacekeeping contribution enhances the national status of the nation on the security issues or it can strengthen a country’s bid for an elected seat in the UN Security Council. Politically peace keeping contributions enhance the national status of the nations on the security issue or it can strengthen a country’s bid for an elected seat in the United Nations Security Council. Second, economic reason national government may use United Nations compensation payments to support their national budget and individuals who participated in the mission can benefit from United Nations payment of $1,028 per month. Third the security benefit due to the fact that peace operations being more likely to received contributions from states in the communicate neighbourhood or region than those further afield, fourth the institutional reason lies in the fact that for a country’s armed forces the mission provides, invaluable overseas experience, finally normative reason is the fact that united nations peace keeping promotes a greater good for all and serves as a proof of “good international citizenship”. Historically one of

the main reasons to contribute to United Nations peace keeping troops was that the League of Nations failed to defend Ethiopia from the Italian aggression in 1936. The Ethiopian government was motivated to participate in the collective security efforts of the United Nations because Ethiopia had been the victim of the league of nations in effectiveness of its principle of collective security and it did not want the same thing to happen to other state of the world under United Nations (Kaleab, 2018).

The participation of Ethiopia in peace keeping has so many implications for Ethiopia such as political, economical and social/security. Ethiopia’s recent participation in peacekeeping is driven by several political motivations. The Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy of Ethiopia (2002) acknowledges that the country’s development, peace and security is intertwined with the development, peace and security of neighbouring countries and those in Africa. This foreign and national security policy and strategy has not only drafted to protect Ethiopia’s national interest and to ensure Ethiopia’s survival as a country , but also its basic thrust is designed to bring about a fundamental change of attitude regarding to the essence of foreign relations and national security (Ministry of Information, 2002). Like that of other countries the Ethiopia’s foreign policy is based on the certain goals and values means that based on achieve their own national interest (Amare, 1989).

The promotion of regional peace and security is therefore a major political consideration in Ethiopia’s provision of peacekeepers, including to the United Nations. Particular emphasis is given to stability in the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) sub-region, where all of Ethiopia’s recent major deployments have taken place. Ethiopia also recognizes that participation in international peacekeeping enhances its regional and international influence (Solomon, 2017). This is articulated as one of the secondary basic principles of the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy of Ethiopia. Indeed, the role of Ethiopian peacekeepers has been commended by host societies and mandating authority as well as senior leaders of the missions in which they participated. Ethiopia also recognizes the diplomatic and foreign relations leverage that peacekeeping contributions bring in pursuing its foreign policy objectives in both bilateral and multilateral frameworks. Economic rationales inform Ethiopia’s participation in peacekeeping in three major ways. First, Ethiopia receives a significant sum of money as compensation for its UN peacekeeping contributions. Second, peacekeeping contributions also

bring opportunities for military support from major donor countries. For example, Ethiopia receives training and other military supports from the United States. This emphasis of the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy on strengthening regional economic cooperation and integration in order to boost Ethiopia’s economic development, deploying peacekeepers in the IGAD sub-region serves to advance its national economic interests (Solomon, 2017). Participation in peacekeeping also accrues significant economic benefits and provides economic gains for the soldiers who participate in the peace operations. UN operations offer to troops experience in crisis situations, and reward them with a United Nations level salary that goes with such assignments (Solomon, 2017 and Kaleab, 2018). Third, Security is one major issue for Ethiopia’s peacekeeping deployments. Ethiopia understands from experience that its national security is intertwined with the security of its neighbours and the countries of the region. Ethiopia is geographically located at the centre the only country that shares borders with all the IGAD member states except Uganda, conflicts and security problems in its neighbourhood often have serious repercussions for Ethiopia at home or, at the heart of the Horn of Africa and it is land-locked since 1991 but it play a critical role in the region (Berouk, 2012).

In Its geopolitical location also Ethiopia is more affected by regional issues than any other state in the Horn of Africa. Considering Ethiopia's historical experience, this position has one significant disadvantage (Mehari, 2014). Therefore First, Ethiopia must focus on its peace and security challenges in order that it also can have peaceful relations with other countries. Similarly, for the establishment of a peaceful, integrated and prosperous region, Ethiopia deems it equally necessary for its neighbours to enjoy domestic peace and stability (ibid). Currently Ethiopia has deployments to Somalia (2006-09, and 2011-present) and to Sudan’s Abyei region. In both cases, Ethiopia’s deployment is mainly to prevent these conflicts from undermining its own security and to stem any wider regional security problems that may develop (Solomon, 2017). In the contribution of Ethiopia in peacekeeping it has so major challenge for increasing police contribution is the problem language proficiency. Poor communication skills are one of the main factors for participated in the operations (Solomon, 2017 and Kaleab, 2018).

3.3 Ethiopia’s Diplomatic and military status in the Region

Is Ethiopia a regional power? The Horn of Africa is located in the north-eastern part of the continent. It comprises seven states: Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and

South Sudan. Ethiopia shares borders with all the states of the Horn of Africa except Uganda porous borders which are very difficult to fully monitor. Indeed, Ethiopia is encircled in the east by Djibouti (349 km), in the south-east by Kenya (861 km), in the north by Eritrea (912 km), in the south-west by Somalia (1,600 km) and in the west by both Sudan and South Sudan (1,606 km). Thus no part of the Horn of Africa is without Ethiopia's enduring presence and basic interests which include securing its borders, containing external threats and ensuring political stability in the region (Berouk, 2012). Some scholars argue that, there is no clearly a regional power in the Horn of Africa it characterized by contested leadership in the case of this Kenya, the region’s economic power but lacks of the hard power to assume a leadership position. Even though Sudan has a potential but it is grappling with numerous unresolved internal armed conflicts. Ethiopia is arguably constrained by lack of economic capacity. In spite of this, other scholars argue that Ethiopia is the most powerful and dominant power in the region (Dustin, 2008).

Regional powers are generally assumed to contribute to stability and peace within their geographically defined spheres of influence. Although Ethiopia arguably lacks of the economic capacity to be fully labelled as a regional power, such as Nigeria, South Africa and others African countries but Ethiopia has been increasingly exerting influence in the field of peace and security in the region using its prominent military and diplomatic powers. Today Ethiopia has a strong military presence inside Somalia fighting against Islamist extremist groups. Ethiopian troops are also deployed as peacekeepers in Darfur, Sudan, and in Abyei a contested border area between Sudan and South Sudan. Apart from its military engagements Ethiopia has actively involved in the diplomatic position (Kidist, 2014). Ethiopia has also managed to drive regional agendas through the existing regional and continental organizations, namely the Intergovernmental Authority of Development (IGAD) and the African Union (AU). Ethiopia has to deal with foreign powers competing to set up strategic outposts and spheres of influence for different geopolitical and economic purposes in the strategically significant the Horn of Africa (Berouk, 2012). African countries ranked by potential military strength it has ranked 7th power index in Africa and also the 1st ranked in the region (www.globalfire power.com, 2020).

Ethiopia’s relative power and its role in regional peace and security including an excellent track record in peace keeping, counter terrorism and mediation, provide the impetus for actions

through multilateral platforms, long term partnership and alliances in the region and beyond. The former USA president Barack Obama said that, “Ethiopia military may be one of the best in the world. One of the largest contributors peace keeping and the most effective fighting force when it comes to being placed in some very difficult situation and helping to resolve conflicts” (Mehari, 2017). This implies that Ethiopia has strong military power. Albeit the current Ethiopia’s internal stability is difficult the last two decades Ethiopia’s relative internal stability, Ethiopia’s military power, population size, and diplomatic strength have enabled it to position itself as a regional power and to drive regional peace and security initiatives. Ethiopia has also been able to influence regional security agendas through sub-regional and regional organizations. The union of Ethiopia’s interests and those of its western partners further give Ethiopia legitimacy in its regional role and status. At the same time, other states in the Horn of Africa have been unable to balance Ethiopia’s position in the region or gain the same level of recognition for their role in peace and security (Kidist, 2014).

3.4 The 1972 Addis Ababa Peace Agreement between North and South Sudan

Sudan ultimately won independence from Britain in 1956. The government remained in North. However, soon after independence, North and South relations deteriorated further because the latter felt its rights and due share all told aspects of political, cultural and economic life was being compromised by the more powerful North (Shinn, 2004). The civil wars traced its beginning back to the colonial past where North-South Dichotomy was set in motion, consolidated and defined the north and south inequitably in socioeconomic and political terms, the northerner who claimed to be Arab with Islam as a fusing force dominated all aspects of life relegated the need of southerner who are Africans with diversity. The colonially hereditary marginalization of the south by the north has continued in the form of politics of domination and prohibiting in the post-colonial years as successive regimes of Sudan pursued policies intended to assimilate or incorporate the south and exclude them from the political process and economic benefits of the state. This has brought to the surface southerners quest for autonomous status and the long-standing civil wars fought to realize it. Attempts were made by state and regional actors to silence the civil wars in negotiation meetings held particularly in the Addis Ababa accord of 1972 and in the Kenya Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2005. The Addis Ababa

Accord awarded South Sudan autonomous status within Sudan. Yet, Numeiri’s unilateral abrogation of the Accord that undermined Southerners regional autonomy in 1983 contributed to other round of civil war culminated in the signing of the CPA in 2005(Yohannes, 2015).

The source of the conflicts was lack of understanding the nature of socio-ethnic relations between the North and South Sudan during the pre-colonial and colonial period. Arab or No- African/ and African or Non-Arab protagonists engaged in a zero-sum game of hegemony competition This political supremacy had been ongoing conflict between the two groups (the Arab and Non-Arab) for a long time (Shinn, 2004). Neither the colonial government nor the general assembly of Sudan after the independence had ever tried to solve the above ethnic clashes between the North and South Sudan. It was this ideological and historical legacy of Arab domination over the South which was considered as an attack against their identity. Therefore, initially this had ignited the war between the North and South Sudan. In this case the imperial regime of Haile Selassie I government of Ethiopia was mediate the two groups Arab and Non- Arab. Even though the agreement was latter failed in the capital city of African Union and Ethiopia the so called Addis Ababa in 1972 (Dawit, 2015). The Addis Ababa Agreement was the most important event in the political history of post-independence Sudan. It underscored that national unity is possible in diversity (Girma, 1997).

The Addis Ababa Agreement between the North and South with recognizing the ethnic diversity of the Sudan. In 1972, the Addis Ababa Agreement was reached between North and South Sudan that gave the southerners the proper of self-rule. The Agreement granted the regional autonomy and comparative representation in the national assembly for South, however, in 1983 the second north-south war was to break out, when the government in part under pressure from Islamists, effectively abrogated the Addis Ababa Agreement by reversing the 1973 commitments on Islam and use of Arabic language in the South as well as weakening the federal arrangement. Nonetheless, this agreement helped in achieving peace just for ten years. In 1983, the North Sudan government concerned the enforcement of jurisprudence of Sharia that again began to fume differences between the two regions and led to a second warfare (Mulugeta and Epherm, 2020). The reasons also included economic factors, especially since the invention of oil in South Sudan in 1979. Finally, on January 9, 2005, with the efforts of the international community, a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed between the government of North Sudan

and SPLM of South Sudan. The agreement stated that the South would live autonomously for an interim period of six years (2005-2011).It also included agreements for the interim period on security, wealth sharing, power sharing, and on the status of the three regions of Abyei, Southern Kordofan, and also the Blue Nile. The CPA drawn up a referendum on July 9, 2011 during which the people of South Sudan could decide whether or not they need a united Sudan or independence. When the time came, 98.8 % people of South Sudan voted for independence and thus on July 9, 2011, a replacement country appeared on the map of the planet with its capital in Juba. Mr. Salva Kiir Mayardit became its first president (Nadia, 2012). Oil may be a major issue that may have great impact on the long run relations of Sudan and South Sudan. Ethiopia is a country which founded in the Horn of Africa. Although Ethiopia has not been more the experience of mediation process but since the establishment of the United Nations Ethiopia has been participated in United Nations (UN) peace operations dating back to the 1950s and Ethiopia has participated in more than ten peacekeeping missions at continental and global level. The Addis Ababa 1972 agreement of Sudan and south Sudan before south Sudan became independence is one historical experience Ethiopia’s mediation peace process. The peace accord deal was a power sharing most African conflict resolution mechanism is power sharing because the most cause of the conflict are power struggle.

CAPTER FOUR 4. THE ETHIOPIA’S MEDIATION ROLE IN SOUTH SUDAN CONFLICT 4.1The impact of South Sudan civil war on Ethiopia Wars in under developing countries have heavy human, economic, and social costs and are a major cause of poverty and underdevelopment. The conflict has also its impact on regional economic and political integration. Therefore due to Ethiopia and South Sudan relations with each other such as they shared common ethnic, long boundary and resource. South Sudan civil war has directly impact on Ethiopia economic, political, social, and security1.

1 Gedu Andargachew the former minister of Ethiopia’s foreign affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia , May/18/2021 34

4.1.1 The Social impact According to Gedu, South Sudan civil war has its social impact on Ethiopia. In fact Ethiopia has suffered notably due to Nuer refugee flow influx around Gambella region. To the following of the civil war more than half million of south Sudan peoples were migrated to Ethiopia. The spill- over effect of the crisis was extended beyond refugee flows to the destabilization of peripheral areas where kin communities such as the Nuer, Dinka and other ethnic groups reside in the adjacent countries bordering South Sudan. The vulnerability of porous borders and the natural mobility of the Nuer in gaining access to the neighbouring regions of Ethiopia, the consequences of the crisis will not be limited to South Sudan. South Sudanese refugees mostly the Nuer tribe are the biggest numbers of refugees in Ethiopia. This displacement was so difficult for Gambella region because it affects or changes the demography of the region and balance of ethnic configuration2.

4.1.2 The Political impact One of the serious impacts of any civil war is the political instability that can be visible in terms of many things like fragility, violations of human rights, weak institution, killing and arresting the opposition group and create conducive ground for the emerging of authoritarian regimes. The war also creates insecure political environment means political processes totally instable and rebellions (sudd institute, 2014). The increasing number of the Nuer’s has been a significant problem since Ethiopia is currently suffering from the politics of number. Number matters the most in politics of Ethiopia’s federal system, since power is allocated in direct proportion to the population of the country’s ethno cultural communities. In this regard Gambella is suffering from one of the most contentious issues which are the politics of numbers and that have locked two of the region’s major ethnic groups Anuak and Nuer into conflict (Dereje, 2014). The Nuer is invading the political space of the Anuak, a once prominent group in Gambella. The group feels that it is being pushed away from its land and constituency by the sudden pouring Nuer refugees in Ethiopia. The tension has been made worse with an important amount of those refugees have changed their status of refugees with the issuance of Ethiopian National Identities and enabling them to live in the region. This has frustrated the Anuak population who has gone as far as

2 Doctor Abdeta Dribssa executive director of Center for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation and former director general for African affairs at the ministry of foreign affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia ,May/18/ 2021

accusing the Ethiopian government of ethnic cleansing in the region for its own political purposes (Elshaddai, 2016).

The crisis in south Sudan also has its own impact on, the politics around the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). In 2017 Egypt, which cooperates with the south Sudan government on water projects in South Sudan, was alleged for funding and provision of military supplies to Juba in exchange for support of Cairo’s opposition to the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Ethiopia (Melha and Donnas, 2018).

4.1.3 The Security impact Since Ethiopia is hosting the majority of South Sudanese refugees. There have been more incidents in Gambella and as a result of these refugees’s presence there have been more cross- border conflicts and security issues in the region. For instance In April 2016, a gaggle of ethnic Murle from South Sudan raided villages in Gambella, killing an estimate of 200 peoples (Aly, 2017 and Melha and Doha, 2018). The presence SPLM/A soldiers on the borders who conduct their military training were the causes of many troubles for the host community like killing and other violations of Human Rights too(Wosenu, 2013).

4.1.4 The Economic impact According to ambassador Fesseha shawul, Ethiopian economic interest in south Sudan is also at stake due to conflict. Because if south Sudan is peaceful both Ethiopia and South Sudan can cooperate in their trade and their investment can be improved. Ethiopia has a large fortuitous of citizens working in South Sudan. Ethiopian Airline and the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia used to have strong hold in South Sudan. Yet, since the conflict has started including Ethiopian Air line and commercial bank of Ethiopia a number of Ethiopians and Ethiopian institutions have left the country putting a strain on the countries potential of earning foreign currency and employment for its citizens. The impact of the refugees on the production is also another concern. Directly or indirectly the arrival of refugees affected the agricultural production of the host community. The direct impact is since most of the refugees are Nuer pastoralist they came to the camp with their large number of cattle (Wosenu, 2013). Whenever a refugee camps is set up, the authorized bodies only consider the availability of water supply and security. The refugees participate in different economic activities to increase their income like by selling timber, wood for construction,

making charcoal, etc. They also participate in fishing, hunting, collecting wild fruits etc. All the above-mentioned activities of the refugees affect the environment like deforestation, soil erosion, migration and loss of wild animals3.

4.2 The Role of Ethiopia in the Mediation Process Ethiopia has been increasingly exerting influence in the field of peace and security in the Horn of Africa, using its incontestably prominent military and diplomatic powers (Kidist, 2014). According to the respondents, Ethiopia has a historical relationship with the people of South Sudan for geopolitical and geo cultural interests. All governments that come to power in Ethiopia remain strong allies with South Sudan. The role of Ethiopia in south Sudan is not a recent phenomenon it started from Emperor Haile Selassie I, during the time of civil war between north and south (1955 to 1972), the rebels of the Anya Anya Movement were partly based in Ethiopia. On 27 February 1972, Joseph Lagu of the South Sudan Liberation Army and Dr Mansur Khalid of the government signed the Addis Ababa Agreement. This agreement provided regional autonomy for Southern Sudan and allowed a greater religious freedom for non-Muslim citizens. For the independence of the South Sudan Ethiopia has played a great role. After the independence of South Sudan when the conflict broke out in December 2013, Ethiopia moved quickly and attempted to resolve the conflict in South Sudan. Ethiopia has been actively involved in the mediation process to defuse and resolve tensions within South Sudan both as individual and as IGAD chairman it has a vital role, including deployed peace keeping force4.

As the respondents said that, Ethiopia’s active mediation role in the crisis was admirable and reasonable. The peace process was launched as a result of the outbreak of the conflict within the army unit of presidential Guard on December 15 December 2013. The conflict broke out, Ethiopia speedily engaged to mediate and a peace deals to end the civil war. So the first move was around December 17, 2013, when Dr. Tederowos Adhanom, the late Ethiopian Foreign Minister. This was very fast initiatives after 15 December 2013. On 26 December 2013 Ethiopian Prime Minister Haile Mariam who was also the former Chairman of IGAD Assembly of the Heads of Government, visited South Sudan’s capital Juba, and called for an end to the

3 Ambassador Fesseha Shawel general director of neighbouring countries and IGAD affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia , May,17,2021 4 Doctor Abdeta Dribssa executive director of Center for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation and former director general for African affairs at the ministry of foreign affairs, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May/18/2021 37

conflict. And the first rounds of the talks were held in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa on Saturday 4th therefore, the mediators to the South Sudan Peace Talks were mainly the warring parties, the Government of the Republic of South Sudan and the SPLM-SPLA in Opposition. Latter on Ethiopia’s mediation was shifted to IGAD negotiation. The IGAD mediation was led by a chief mediator, in its capacity as a Chair of (IGAD). Ethiopia appointed one of its most senior politicians the former Ethiopian Foreign Minister, Seyoum Mesfin, who was joined by mediators from Kenya, General Lazaro Sumbeiywo, and Sudan, General Mohammed al-Dabbi. In this regard, the influence of Ethiopia is most importantly felt through the selection of its Special Envoy. Ambassador Seyoum Mesfinis a veteran diplomat who had served as Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister on several occasions and is well versed on the issues of South Sudan (international crisis group, 2015). Subsequently, the peace talks between the warring parties were begun in January 2014; Addis Ababa was the safest place because Kenya Nairobi there was street killing and assassination between the opposition parties. In this result Addis Ababa led mediation efforts through the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and served as a guarantor to the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict within the Republic of South Sudan. The talk was focused on attempts to immediately end the conflict, and then they signed an agreement in August 2015. The agreement, however, didn't stop the conflict5. Ethiopia In collaboration with other stakeholders has created various platforms to bringing the conflicting parties in South Sudan to a peaceful dialogue and mediation.

The former United Nations Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon has once expressed his appreciation and admiration of what Ethiopia has been doing to realize peace and stability. He said that, “The situation in South Sudan needs serious support from all peace loving stakeholders, particularly Ethiopia's effort is significant” (Elshaddai, 2016). As far as his argument is concerned we can understand Ethiopia’s role in south Sudan has been so grateful and, it is interesting. James Morgan, South Sudan Ambassador in Ethiopia, said that his government and people appreciate neighbouring Ethiopia for hosting peace talks ever since civil war broke out in December 2013. And also he said that, “African problem should be solved by African people, we don't need to invite outsiders from outside Africa to solve our issues, and Ethiopia is playing that role,”

5 Ambassador James Morgan Ambassador of south Sudan in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May/18/ 2021

Ethiopia has hosted several rounds of South Sudan peace talks ever since civil war broke out in South Sudan.

According to ambassador Fesseha, Ethiopia has been showing strong leadership and level of direct involvement in mediation process to a shuttle diplomacy including preparing agreement and debates. It was guiding the parties in a reasonable direction. Because Ethiopia is concerned with legal right of the disputants rather than needs and interest it evaluative based on legal concepts of fairness to power-sharing. In short Ethiopia’s role was irreplaceable. Following the July 2016 conflict in Juba Agreement Resolution Conflict on South Sudan (ARCSS) has been reshaped and the Regional Protection Force and national dialogue process was created to reinforce its principles. Ethiopia has a great role in implementation of ARCSS to reduce conflict under an inclusive government. Because Ethiopia’s support for talks between these parties makes it a critical partner in supporting inclusivity in Juba, the RPF provides a direct link to Ethiopia and other IGAD leaders in their oversight of ARCSS and efforts to form a more inclusive government (Rashid, 2017). These processes, and the Regional Protection Force’s role in supporting them, are solution and interconnected. For example, a successful negotiation between the transitional government and an armed group increases the chances of successful dialogue between communities caught up in the conflict (ibid). After Many attempts of ceasefires and peace deals have failed. The latest efforts to bring an end to the brutal conflict in South Sudan culminated with the signing of a peace agreement on 12 September 2018 in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. This was the 12th time when the two opposition groups have entered into a peace agreement since the conflict begun. As part of the deal, former rebel leader Riek Machar has rejoined the government and resumed his vice president duties (Israel, 2018 and Yohannes, 2019). A peace accord was the power-sharing deal rooted in both democratic and conflict management theories. It was signed in Addis Ababa on the 12th of September 2018 with the aim to end the five-year civil conflict in South Sudan. In this agreement all opposition groups came to Juba and they established a new united transition government. it was implemented under the “Revitalized Agreement on Resolving the Conflict in South Sudan” (R-ARCSS), that sets out some lofty goals for the new transitional government such as the government of national unity is to stabilize the situation, open the way for humanitarian assistance, return and resettle displaced populations,

implement a comprehensive reform agenda, and prepare for 2022 election and the subsequent normalization of politics6.

4.3 Challenges of the mediation process As already mentioned in chapter two the success and failure of mediation process has its own factors such as the behaviour of the mediator, the behaviour of disputants and also lack of capacity and time by itself are the challenges of mediation process. According to the respondent the mediation process of South Sudan conflict has different internal and external challenges. The mistrust, Lack of cooperation and lack of commitment to solve the conflict and the competition between regional and international actors, these challenges have destabilized the efforts of solving the conflict and it delay the peace.

4.3.1 Mistrust of the warring parties Most of the respondents agreed that, the Mistrust and disagreement between and among the country’s political elites are the challenges of the mediation. The main face came from narrow- mindedness and rigidity of the warring parties’ leaders. The opposition thinks that the government insults them for an attempt of coup and accused them for unfaithfulness. So they have not to work strongly together to bring peace agreement in to implementation. It was obvious they tried to get their sides during the peace negotiation, but there were big difficulties between the belligerent parties. The warring parties and the mediators, the mediators and the international communities and the international communities and the South Sudanese warring parties, so all these things created mistrust, and it affects a mediation process to be late7.

4.3.2 Lack of cooperation According to the respondents actually Ethiopian institution including military defence, a special envoy and the former Ethiopian Prime Minister had a gap to work with these had been a lack of cooperation. Ethiopia’s internal instability since 2015 was the challenge of the mediation process. And also South Sudan political leaders have not been commitment to solve the conflict. The absence of give and take spirit the ruling elite continuing to prioritise self-enrichment and ethnic-based interests was another face of the mediation. Politics beyond Juba and below the

6 Ambassador Fesseha Shawel general director of neighbouring countries and IGAD affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May/17/ 2021

7 Ambassador James Morgan Ambassador of south Sudan in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May/18/ 2021 40

national level, combined with a proliferation of informal conflicts, has only added further depth to the challenges facing the transitional government. The Conflict that changes ethnic based killings and counter-killings is thus the symptom of this long held animosity between Dinka and Nuer ethnic groups. Political elite’ ambition for power is based on their own ethnic origin; it was difficult and critical challenge of the mediation process8. The Ethiopian mediation and the much more expanded IGAD- plus peace process were characterized as top- down approach of peace making (Yohannes, 2015). For instance 2015 peace agreement was not inclusive the mediation role was focused only the two warring parties the others insurgents missed during the mediation process, in South Sudan a lot of ethnic groups they are neglected from economic and political interest (ibid).

4.3.3 Divergent interest of the external actors in south Sudan The role of neighbouring countries including Uganda, Sudan and Kenya has varied and evolved since December 2013. Political interfering interests from Uganda, Sudan and other neighbouring countries as well as External interfering interest in the South Sudan and in the region was the biggest challenge Ethiopia faced in its South Sudan conflict resolution efforts. As all respondents argued Competing interests and divergent routes of IGAD member states specially Uganda and Sudan were directly involved in the conflict. Parties accused regional powers such as Sudan and Uganda of involvement in the conflict. Sudan was accused by the government of South Sudan of supporting the armed opposition the SPLM/A-in Opposition, and the SPLM/A_ in Opposition accused Uganda’s involvement in South Sudan conflict by openly supporting the South Sudan Army (SPLA) with backup from the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). This strong military and diplomatic support from Uganda has minimized the need for the government of South Sudan to make a major compromise with the rebel groups, inhibiting the efforts of Ethiopians to resolve the conflict sustainably (Yohannes, 2015). Uganda’s military involvement in the South Sudan civil war has been controversial. It has not only fuelled the war by supplying weapons to the Kiir’s government changing the military power balance, but also against the Nuer and Equatorians (Redie, 2017). Regional power ambitions especially, by Ethiopia and Uganda that followed diverse approach of solution to the political conflict, each of these specific interests of the state makes competition and regional power

8 Doctor Abdeta Dribssa executive director of Center for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation and former director general for African affairs at the ministry of foreign affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May/18/ 2021 41

aspiration between the two countries, and it was difficult to solve the conflict (Charles and Kudrat, 2017).

Political and diplomatic influence of external powers such as the UN, Troika countries (UK, USA and Norway), and China and others such actors of diplomatic leverages was the challenges of the mediation process9. The international actors were not clearly identified as decisive players in the South Sudan civil war. However, there were purportedly specially competition between China and the United States for influence over the government of South Sudan (Sudd Institute, 2014). The President and the government spokesperson also accused the United States of America having supported the insurgent group and the coup in an attempt to get a new government that will renegotiate oil deals and also the President was specifically accused the US of having anticipated an intervening government (Charles and Kudrat, 2017). The divergent interest of external actor’s involvement and influence was the challenge of the mediation process. The biggest challenge that Ethiopia has faced in its South Sudan conflict management efforts was political interference as well as External interference and interests from Uganda, Sudan, and other neighbouring countries. The role of external actors in the peace process have been affect to Ethiopia’s mediation efforts in South Sudan because of their fixed and incompatible interests. Lack of credibility since one of regional state is directly involved in the conflict and also lack of partiality in mediation processes, lack of public cooperation, and lack of key security infrastructure in the country, lack of funds and resources and leaders not respecting peace agreements as well as bias from regional leaders. These challenges such as competitions and the involvement of external actors have directly or indirectly affected and delayed the mediation process.

4.4 The Reasons of why Ethiopia Involved in South Sudan Conflict Resolution process Since the formation of modern Ethiopian empire, different regimes are using their policies and foreign relations as means to modernize the country, maintain sovereignty and defending the national integrity of the country (Negera, 2018). However, these have been always changes and continuity in Ethiopian foreign policy under different regimes though the central purpose of Ethiopia's foreign policy has remained the same. Today Ethiopia has a well articulated foreign

9 Gedu Andargachew the former minister of Ethiopia’s foreign affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May/18/ 2021 42

and security policy called the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS) (Mehari and Abel, 2015). This foreign and national security policy and strategy is not only drafted to protect Ethiopia’s national interest and to ensure Ethiopia’s survival as a country, but also its basic thrust is designed to bring about a fundamental change of attitude regarding the essence of foreign relations and national security (Ministry of Information, 2002).

Like that of other countries Ethiopia’s foreign policy is based on certain goals and values to achieve their own national interest and also the dynamic interplay of domestic and external factors are determined (Amare, 1989). Foreign policy of a country emanates from domestic environment. Joseph Frankel (1970) in the book of “National Interest” he stated that, If foreign policy is defined as a formulation of desired outcomes which are expected to be consequent upon decisions adopted by those who have authority (or ability) to commit the machinery of the state and a significant fraction of national resources to that end, national interest describes the desired outcomes. Over the past decade Ethiopia has moved to ward’s a more focused and robust stance in its regional foreign policy, in the process bolstering its status as a pivotal regional power and a major player in African affairs (Mehari, 2017). Therefore, Ethiopia’s Foreign policy is primarily focused with the pursuit of national interest and the attainment of national objectives. Like other countries the main objective of Ethiopian foreign policy depends on their national interest. National objectives are not unique and some of which vary from time to time. National security, however, stands out first in the foreign policy of all countries (Arka, 2002).

The main reason of the involvement of Ethiopia in South Sudan mediation is the case of the Gambella Region. It has shared a long boundary, similar ethnic identities, and natural resource including rivers with south Sudan in western part of the country10. International relations theories try to explain the mechanism of conflicts from various perspectives. The Domesticated issues are undoubtedly considered as basic determinants of conflicts. However, external factors need to be integrated into the explanation of the evolution of domestic conflicts, because domestic issues are not isolated from external influences (Keiichi, 2018). Therefore, Ethiopia has different reasons or causes to involve in South Sudan mediation process. Ethiopia has been forced to balance and at some instance chose between resolving ethnic tensions in the Gambella region while offering protection to the second-largest ethnic population in South Sudan fleeing to its

10 Gedu Andargachew the former minister of Ethiopia’s foreign affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia ,May/18/2021 43

boundary since the outbreak of the South Sudan crisis. Ethiopia’s relations with South Sudan had been increasingly complicated since South Sudan’s descent into civil war in late 2013. The outbreak of war has affected both bilateral interests (Aly, 2017). Ethiopia has to deal with foreign powers competing to set up strategic outposts and spheres of influence for different geopolitical and economic purposes in the strategically significant of the Horn of Africa including South Sudan (Beruk, 2012).

According to Gedu Andargachew, the IGAD member states have been involved in the South Sudan peace process including Ethiopia because the South Sudan crisis is often referred to as a regional crisis. Especially for Ethiopia the civil war is more concerned because, it is land locked and the only country that shares boundaries with all the Horn states except Uganda (Berouk, 2012 and Elshaddai, 2016). Sharing these boundaries also implies sharing ethnic groups around those boundaries which in turn indicates that any occurrence of conflict in any form, violent or peaceful, in any of its neighbouring states is likely to have a spill-over effect on Ethiopian soil (ibid). According to James Morgan Ambassador of South Sudan in Ethiopia, the engagement of Ethiopia on the south Sudan mediation is burden actually it is a burden because “when your neighbours is on fire, you do not warm it up rather you do put out the fire” 11. Therefore, Ethiopia’s engagement on south Sudan conflict resolution is just the involvement of put out the fire which shares boarders, ethnicities and other issue. Ambassador Fesseha also said, when you help south Sudan you basically help Ethiopia because the conflict of south Sudan directly or indirectly affects Ethiopia’s interest. There are ethnic groups that live on both sides of their common borders12. The South Sudanese Conflict could have both a direct and indirect spill over effect on Ethiopia, thus Ethiopia can be seen to have a genuine interest in peace. Ethiopia has a considerable minority Nuer population, which is the same tribe that is living in the protection of civilian sites in several of South Sudan’s cities. Much of Ethiopia’s long border with South Sudan is controlled by SPLM-IO. The Gambella region hosts approximately 500,000, South Sudanese refugees, the vast majority of them are Nuer. The spill-over effect of the crisis also extend beyond refugee flows to the destabilization of Ethiopia’s peripheral areas where kin communities such as the Nuer reside and in this case Ethiopia has

11 Ambassador James Morgan ambassador of South Sudan in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia ,May/18/2021 12 Ambassador Fesseha Shawel general director of neighbouring countries and IGAD affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia , May/17/2021 44

been involved on South Sudan case 13. With the defencelessness of porous borders, and the natural mobility of the Nuer in gaining access to the neighbouring regions of Ethiopia, the consequences the crisis will not be limited to only South Sudan. Generally the reason of Ethiopia has been involved on south Sudan case it is an interest of keeping this western region secure and stable. Therefore, the engagement of Ethiopia in the South Sudan mediation process is no surprise.

6.5 The Implications of South Sudan Mediation for Ethiopia Ethiopia has different identifiable bilateral national interests in South Sudan. The South Sudan peace has several opportunities for Ethiopia. The hydro politics, Border and land security, Promotion and protection of trade relations, managing inter-communal relations along the border, principally between the Anyuak and Nuer ethnic groups, who live in both countries and peacekeeping are the important interest of Ethiopia to maintain peace(Aly, 2017). Therefore, the peace of South Sudan has many opportunities for Ethiopia.

4.5.1 Boarder and mutual territorial Security

Ethiopia is located at the core of the Horn of Africa therefore, it seeks to promote and control friendly relations with all its direct neighbouring states (Berouk, 2015). Ethiopia has also a considerable minority Nuer population, which is the same tribe that is living in the protection of civilian sites in several of South Sudan’s cities because many Ethiopian Nuer ethnic populations’ are live in South Sudan. Ethiopia has security concerns due to the fragility of the region’s newest state, South Sudan. The entry of South Sudanese refugees into the Gambella region of Ethiopia was endanger the already fragile peace there therefore, Ethiopia’s intensive coordination with local authorities inside South Sudan remains necessary to prevent the recurrence of the kind of attacks that occurred in April 2016 in Ethiopia’s Gambella region, where cross boundary ethnic violence and ancillary cattle resulting and kidnapping have incited tensions among local communities and the two states (Seyoum and Dr Abdeta, 2018). South Sudan’s peace has important implications for Ethiopia’s domestic security; it is providing the potential to create stability along its western frontier14. It reduces political and communal conflicts which tend to

13 Gedu Andargachew the former minister of Ethiopia’s foreign affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia ,May/18/2021 14 Ambassador Fesseha Shawel general director of neighbouring countries and IGAD affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia , May/17/2021 45

aggravate inter-communal tensions in the border region of refugee inflows along their shared border in Gambella15.

4.5.2 Trade and investment The South Sudan conflict resolution has given several advantages for Ethiopian economy. For instance there are many Ethiopian businessmen with investments in Juba and elsewhere in South Sudan, including in real estate, construction, eclectic supply and other fields 16 . These investments are marginal to the Ethiopian economy; the Ethiopia government on the other hand would like to protect these interests by seeing a stabilization of the situation in Juba. Ethiopia also has a considerable economic interest in South Sudan; it has a large dependent of citizens working in South Sudan. To enhance its economic ties and emerge as player in the South Sudanese market, two roads connecting Ethiopia with South Sudan are currently under construction, with the uttered aim to improve bilateral economic ties17.

Ethiopia and South Sudan have signed an agreement on trade and economic development, electricity, and transportation such as agreement on cooperation roads and bridges, bilateral cooperation on the construction of road, memorandum of understanding on diesel off-take arrangement, memorandum of understanding in the field energy, boarder trade protocol, agreement on communication and media. This signed agreement gives good benefits for improve economic strength 18. Ethiopian Airlines operates daily flights to Juba this is good for both Ethiopia and South Sudan (Mehari and Abel, 2018). The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, the largest government owned bank in the country, also has opened branches in South Sudan19. South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport joint project which includes building a new port at Lamu and an oil pipeline from South Sudan is another important of economic benefit for both countries (Berouk, 2015).

15 Ambassador James Morgan Ambassador of south Sudan in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia ,May/18/ 2021 16 Ambassador Fesseha Shawel general director of neighbouring countries and IGAD affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia , May/17/2021 17 Gedu Andargachew the former minister of Ethiopia’s foreign affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia , May/18/2021 18 Ambassador Fesseha Shawel general director of neighbouring countries and IGAD affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia , May/17/2021 19 ibid

4.5.3 Nile basin politics

Ethiopia has a long-term strategic interest in maintaining good relations with any government in Juba because of the latter’s involvement in the Nile basin politics, which historically has ignited tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt over upriver activities on the Blue Nile that could reduce the river’s flow to Egypt (Luka, 2018). Egypt has a water conflict with Ethiopia over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River. Due to this Egypt prepares for war with Ethiopia, but having no border with Ethiopia. Egypt was involved in helping to the government of South Sudan to persuade on the Nile (Telhloach, 2017). Yet, South Sudan has never been a major player in this dynamic. While it is an upstream riparian state, South Sudan’s alliance of fictions with downstream Egypt on use of the Nile has little consequence for Ethiopia. This constitutes political leverage of Ethiopia could use to influence the political direction in Juba. The flow white Nile waters through South Sudan have no effect on the GERD and also Blue Nile flow did not affect the South Sudan. All the other upstream riparian states (Burundi, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda) have hydroelectric ambitions of their own, and therefore cannot rationally oppose Ethiopia’s development projects on its stretch of the Nile (Aly, 2017).

Generally the civil war of South Sudan was ignited by different factors that include elite power struggle, corruption, patronage and impunity, militarization and arm proliferation, instrumentalization of ethnic identities, weak institutional capacity that break out on December 2013. The engagement of Ethiopia in South Sudan mediation is the dilemma of western part of the country specially Gambella Region. Ethiopia has been forced to balance and at some instance chose between resolving ethnic tensions in the Gambella region while offering protection to the second-largest ethnic population in South Sudan fleeing to its boundary since the outbreak of the South Sudan crisis. The crisis of south Sudan has so many impacts on Ethiopia as a neighbouring country and shared long boundary and similar ethnic identities.

CHAPTER FIVE 5. CONCLUSION 5.1 Conclusion Conflict is a natural phenomenon and occurs as a result of incompatible goal of human beings. Conflict in south Sudan is no recent phenomena. After the cold war, ethnicity has been the main cause of conflict and political instability especially in Africa; South Sudan is one of the states affected by ethnic instability. After long civil war between North and South Sudan in 2011, South Sudanese welcomed the newest nation in the world with the hopes of a more peaceful and prosperous future for its citizens. However, this hopefulness was punctured by the start of internal conflict in December 2013. The cause of the conflict is a power competition between the two high ranking leaders president Salva Kiir and his opposition Dr Riek Machar. The ongoing civil war in South Sudan has interrelated causal factors that include power struggle a single military unit swiftly spread to other branches of the armed forces in other states, corruption, militarization and arm proliferation, weak institutional capacity, instrumentalization of ethnic identities and lack of inclusiveness. The South Sudanese people have gone through aggravation humanitarian crisis, and there are concerns that it could enter a vicious cycle of increasing instability, politically and economically.

Ethiopia and south Sudan share a long boundary and have same common ethnic group too. The effects of the general disorder in South Sudan have not only affected the population of South Sudan, they have also had a spill over effect on the horn of Africa region and the international community. The south Sudan civil war has its own social, political and economical impact on Ethiopia. The peace process was launched as a result of the outbreak of the conflict in South Sudan in 15 December, 2013. Ethiopian and south Sudan relation is not a recent phenomenon despite south Sudan is a young nation they have been long history Ethiopia has been supporting the South Sudanese People Movement/Army before its became independence (SPLM/A). Following the eruption of conflict, Ethiopia quickly tried to facilitate to stop the war. And also it has been deploying peacekeepers to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. Ethiopia from the beginning has been actively involved in to the peace and mediation process in South Sudan conflict. Ethiopia is playing an active role in regional peace and security issues through diplomatic engagement, military intervention, mediation, and peacekeeping activities. The 48

influence of Ethiopia is most importantly felt through the selection of its Special Envoy. Ambassador Seyoum Mesfinis a veteran diplomat that had served as Ethiopia‘s Foreign Minister on several occasions and is well versed on the issues of South Sudan. Ethiopia has also managed to drive regional peace and security issues through IGAD and AU. The peace talks between the warring parties begun a few weeks after the conflict had broken out in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and the talks were focused on attempts to immediately end the war.

The latest efforts to bring an end to the brutal conflict in South Sudan culminated with the signing of a peace agreement on 12 September 2018 in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital with the aim to end the five year conflict. This marked the 12th time the two opposition groups have entered into a peace agreement since the conflict began. A peace accord was the power-sharing deal rooted in both democratic and conflict management theories. Ethiopia was guiding the parties in a reasonable direction and Mediation process was a shuttle diplomacy including preparing agreement and debating. Because Ethiopia was concerned with legal right of the disputants rather than needs and interest it evaluative based on legal concepts of fairness to power-sharing. As part of the deal, former rebel leader Riek Machar has rejoined the government and resumed his vice president duties. All opposition groups are come to Juba and they established a new united transition government. Generally Ethiopia has been following the facilitative and evaluative techniques of mediation process. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia is one of the key countries with keen diplomatic interests and influence in South Sudan and in the entire horn of Africa. The main reason of Ethiopia’s engagement itself in the mediation process of south Sudan is a national interest.

However, the peace process faces various challenges during mediation peace process Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan. Because of the unwillingness of the two opponent parties to respect what they have promised and signed for in the peace deals and the divergent interest, diplomatic and political influence of external actor’s engagement. The mediation process of the south Sudan has several opportunities such as political, social, and economic and security implications for Ethiopia. Ethiopia as a close neighbouring state has been supporting for peace and stability in South Sudan. Because of the South Sudan is in peace, Ethiopia can be in peace and stable too. But unfortunately South Sudan since its Independence has been facing war, and instability, so

Ethiopia as a neighbouring and key mediator of the conflict has been facing various challenges in the Horn of Africa region.

Reference

Abraham Awolich (2019). “South Sudan Peace Process the Challenge to the Implementation of the R-ARCSS”. The sudd institution.

Alex, D (2016) “Apolitical Marketplace Analysis of South Sudan’s Peace”, world peace foundation.

Alfred Charles and Good news (2016), “Economic theory of conflict”.

Aly Verjee (2017). “Why doesn't South Sudan's refugee exodus spur East Africa to action”? .

Amanda Lea Robinson (2016), “Ethnic diversity, segregation and ethnocentric trust in Africa.” Working Paper Number 166.

Amare Tekle (1989). “The Determinants of the Foreign Policy of Revolutionary Ethiopia”. The Journal of Modern African Studies, Sep., 1989, Vol. 27, No. 3 (Sep., 1989), pp. 479-502. Published by: Cambridge University Press.

Arthur Boutellis, Delphine Mechoulan and Marie-Joelle (2020) “Contemporary Armed Conflicts and Challenges to Mediation”. Published by: International Peace Institute.

Arka Abota (2002). “Ethiopia’s foreign policy under Emperor Haile Selassie I”: an appraisal.

Aziza Geleta (2017). “The Cause and Consequence of Conflict in South Sudan”. Vol. 5 pp. 15- 21. International Journal of Political Science and Development.

Berouk Mesfin (2012) “Ethiopia's Role and Foreign Policy in the Horn of Africa” Source: International Journal of Ethiopian Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1/2 pp. 87- 113. Published by: Tsehai Publishers.

Berouk Mesfin (2015). “The regionalization of the South Sudanese crisis” .

Carole J. Brown (2002) “Facilitative Mediation”: The Classic Approach Retains its Appeal. pp 279- 28.

Bellamy A. and Williams P (2012). “Broadening the Base of United Nations Troop- and Police- Contributing Countries”. Providing for Peacekeeping No. 1. New York: International Peace Institute, 3–4.

Cockayne, J. and Malone, D. (2005), “United Nations Peace Operations Then and Now”.

Carlo Koos and Thea Gutschke (2014). “South Sudan’s Newest War”: When Two Old Men Divide a Nation.

Charles Mutasa and Kudrat Virk (2017). “Building Peace in South Sudan”: Progress, Problems, and Prospects. Policy advisory group seminar report Cape Town, South Africa date of publication. Centre for conflict Resolution.

Christopher, W (1989), “The mediation Process: Practical Strategies for Resolving Conflict”.

San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.Concept and process of mediation and conciliation project

committee, “supreme court of Indian”, New Delhi.

Dawit Yemane (2015) “What factors contributed to the failure of the Addis Ababa Peace Agreement, 1972” .

Dehez Dustin (2008): “Ethiopia A Hegemon in the Horn of Africa Region”? Paper for BISA Annual Conference, 15–17 December 2008. University of Exeter, UK.

Dereje F (2014). “The Spill over effect of South Sudan in Gambella: Ethiopia. Horn Affairs”.

Dinara Ospanova (2016). “Dialogical self theory and Mediation”: toward self narrative model of conflict resolution.

Djinnit D. (2016). “Ethiopia’s Contribution to Global and African Peacekeeping Operations”.IPPJournal, contribution-to-global-and-african-peacekeeping-operations.

Elshaddai, M (2016), “The role of IGADs hegemony in the south Sudan peace talks”; Addis Ababa University school of graduate studies institute for peace and security studies.

Ethiopian herland (2019). “Ethiopia’s key role in resolving conflicts in Sudan and the Horn”.

Esther Soma, (2020). “Our Search for Peace”: Women in South Sudan’s National Peace Processes, 2005–2018.

Francis Onditi, Kizito Sabala and Samson Wassara (2018). “Power-sharing consociationalism in resolving South Sudan’s ethno-political conflict in the post-Comprehensive Peace Agreement era.

Gagnon V. (1994). “Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflicts” International Security, vol 19, pp 130–66.

Girma Kebede (1997) “Sudan: The North-South Conflict in Historical Perspective” A Journal of African and Afro-American Studies vol 15.

Hoffmann M., (1992) "Third Party Mediation and Conflict Resolution in the Post-Cold War World", in J. Baylis and J. Rengger [eds], Dilemmas of World Politics, Oxford University Press, New York.

Human Rights Watch (2016), “South Sudan”: Army Abuses Spread West, 6 March 2016.

International crisis group, (2016), south Sudan rearranging the chessboard international group crisis.

Israel Nyaburi (2018), “South Sudan conflict from 2013 to 2018 Rethinking the causes, situation and solutions”. PhD candidate in international relation.

Irena Sargsyan (2003) “International Mediation in theory and practice: lessons of Nagorno- Karabakh” .

Jacob Bercovitch and Allison Houston (2000) “Why Do They Do It like This? An Analysis of the Factors Influencing Mediation Behaviour in International Conflicts”. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Apr., 2000, Vol. 44, No. 2 (Apr., 2000), pp. 170-202 Published by: Sage Publications, Inc.

Jacob Bercovitch (2006) “Mediation Success or Failure: a Search for the Elusive Criteria” Cardozo journal of conflict resolution vol. 7:289. James A. Wall, Jr., John B. Stark and Rhetta L. Standifer (2001). Mediation: A Current Review and Theory Development. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 45, No. 3 pp. 370-391 Published by: Sage Publications, Inc.

Joan, Laura and Debarj, (2012) “Ethnicity and Conflict”: Theory and Facts.

John, M (2015), “The South Sudan conflict: Continental and International Implications” National Defence College University of Zimbabwe.

Joseph Frankel (1970). “Key concept in political science: National Interest”. University of Southampton.

Emmanuel Remi (2006) “Theories in Conflict Management” .

John Burton (1986). “The theory of conflict resolution”. Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 125-130 Published by: Tampere Peace Research Institute, University of Tampere.

Joseph Stulberg (1997), "Facilitative Versus Evaluative Mediator Orientations: Piercing the "Grid" Lock" published by: Florida State University Law Review.

Joseph Chan (2018). “Hints on International politics towards the impediment of peace in South Sudan”. Katabaro Miti, Ella Abatan and Stephanie Minou (2012): "Is Power-Sharing a Solution to Africa's Conflicts? " Southern African Peace and Security Studies 2, no. 1.

Katia Papagianni (2007), "Power-Sharing: A Conflict Resolution Tool?," African Mediators’ retreat I: 23.

Katie Shonk (2020) “Types of Mediation: Choose the Type Best Suited to Your Conflict”.

Kaleab Tadesse (2018). “Ethiopian Participation in UN Peacekeeping Operations since 1991”.

Kinney, T and Higgins N (2011), Dispute Resolution in Construction Earls fort Centre, Earls fort Terrace, Dublin, and Ireland.

Kinfe, A. (2007). “Ethiopia and the World: Roles in Peacekeeping, Conflict Mediation and International Affairs”. In Smidt, W. G. C. and Kinfe, A. (eds), Discussing Conflict in Ethiopia: Conflict Management and Resolution. Proceedings of the Conference ‘Ethiopian and German Contributions to Conflict Management and Resolution’ Addis Ababa 11–12.

Kristina Roepstorff and Anna Bernhard (2013) “Insider Mediation in Peace Processes”: An Untapped Resource? Security and Peace, 2013, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 163-169 Published by: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH.

Kenneth M. Roberts (2007) “Mediating the Evaluative-Facilitative Debate”: Why Both Parties Are Wrong and a Proposal for Settlement. Loyola University Chicago law of journal, Vol 39.

Kidist, M (2014), “The role of regional powers in the field of peace and security”: the case of Ethiopia.

Keiichi Tanabe (2018), “Analysis of External Factors of Civil War in South Sudan: From Bilateral, Regional, and International Aspects”.

Kinney, T and Higgins N (2011). “Dispute Resolution in Construction Earls fort Centre, Earls fort Terrace, Dublin, and Ireland”.

Krause, Jana. (2019) “Stabilisation and Local Conflicts: Communal and Civil War in South Sudan”. Published in: Ethno politics, Vol. 18, No. 5, pp 478–493 Department of Political Science University of Amsterdam The Netherlands.

Laurie Nathan (2005), “Mediation and the African Union’s Panel of the Wise” Crisis States Research Centre.

Laue, J. (1990). “The emergence and institutionalization of third party roles in conflict”, edited by J. Burton and F. Dukes, 256-74. New York: St. Martin's.

Leonard Riskin (1996), "Understanding Mediators' Orientations, Strategies, and Techniques: A Grid for the Perplexed" published by: Harvard university.

Lela p. (1997) "The Top Ten Reasons Why Mediators Should Not Evaluate" published by: Florida State University. Lindemann S. (2008) “Do Inclusive Elite Bargains Matter? A Research Framework for Understanding the Causes of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa” Development Studies Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Luka Kuol (2018). “Navigating the Competing Interests of Regional Actors in South Sudan”.

Mehari Taddele and Abel Abate (2013). “The Crisis in South Sudan and Its Implications for Ethiopia”.

Mehari Taddele, (2014). “Ethiopia’s Regional Diplomacies: A Dominant Interpretation of the Horn of Africa”. South African Foreign Policy and African Drivers Program.

Mehari Taddele and Abel Abate (2015). “Ethiopia’s Policy towards the AU: Time to Look beyond Unique Contributions & Special Responsibilities”.

Mehari Taddele and Abel Abate (2015). No End in sight for South Sudan’s Crisis By:

Mehari Taddele and Abel Abate (2016). South Sudan: National constitutive dialogue as the only way forward towards a viable democratic constitutional state.

Mehari Taddele (2017). “A regional power in the making: Ethiopian diplomacy in the horn of Africa”. South African institute of international affairs.

Mehari Taddele (2018) “Keeping Peace in Abyei”: The Role and Contributions of Ethiopia.

Melha Rout Biel (Ph.D.) and Donnas Ojok (2018). “IGAD, Political Settlements and Peace building in South Sudan”: Lessons from the 2018 Peace Negotiation Processes.

Miller E. Christopher (2005) “A Glossary of terms and concepts in peace and conflict studies”. University for peace.

Muhabie Mekonnen (2018) “The role of regional economic communities in conflict resolution in Africa: the case of IGAD’s peace process in south Sudan”. Global journal of political science and administration vol.6, no.1, pp.19-29, February 2018. published by European centre for research training and development uk (www.eajournals.org).

Mulugeta Teshome (2015). “South Sudan: failure in state building and its regional implications”. Thesis the degree of Master of Arts in international relations Addis Ababa University.

Mulugeta Birhanu and Epherm Ahadu (2020) “Evaluating the Challenges of IGAD-Led Peace Process of South Sudan”. International Affairs and Global Strategy Vol.78, 2020.

Muriel Asseburg,Wolfram Lacher and Mareike Transfeld (2018) “Mission Impossible? UN Mediation in Libya, Syria and Yemen”.

Nadia Sarwar (2012). “Post-independence South”: Vol. 32, No. 2/3, pp. 172-182 Published by: Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad.

International Crisis Group. (2014). South Sudan: A Civil War by Any Other Name. Africa Report. No. 217. 10th April.

Oberschall Anthony (2010). “Conflict Theory: Hand book of politics: State and Society in Global Perspective”.

Peter Ambrumenil (1997). “Mediation and Arbitration”. First published in Great Britain 1997 by Cavendish.

Peter Wallensten and Isak Svensson (2014). “Talking peace: International mediation in armed conflicts”. Journal of Peace Research, March 2014, Vol. 51, No. 2, Anniversary Special Issue (March 2014), pp. 315-327 Published by: Sage Publications, Ltd.

Ramsbotham Oliver (2005). “Contemporary Conflict Resolution”. Cambridge: Polity press (pp. 63-93).

Reina Zenelaj, Nimet Beriker and Emre Hatipoglu (2015). “Determinants of mediation success in post-conflict Bosnia: a focused comparison” Publisher: Rout ledge. Australian Journal of International Affairs.

Robert Baruch Bush (1989). “Efficiency and Protection, or Empowerment and Recognition”: the Mediator’s Role and Ethical Standards in Mediation.

Robert A. Baruch Bush and Joseph P. Folger (1994) “The promise of Mediation” Published by Jossey-Bass.

Robert A. Baruch Bush and Joseph P. Folger (2005) “The promise of Mediation” the Transformative Approach to Conflict. Revised Edition. Published by Jossey-Bass.

Robin Hoberman (2002), Mediation: A Nonadversarial Alternative to a Win-Lose System, 90 ILL. B.J. 588, 589),Birke, supra note 5, at 314.

Rosaline, 2018). “Generating Sustainable Livelihoods and Leadership for Peace in South Sudan”: Lessons from the Ground. Place of Publication: Cape Town, South Africa Date of Publication: June 2018 Author: Rosaline Daniel, Former Senior Project Officer,Centre journal of Conflict Resolution (CCR) Editors: Kudrat Virk of CCR; and Jason Cook, Independent Consultant.

UN.org (2017) “Ranking of Military and Police Contributions to UN Operations”. United Nations. 31 January 2017. http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/contributors/2017/.pdf Sambanis N. (2004), “What is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition”, Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 48, No. 6, pp: 814-858.

Shinn, David H. (2004) "Addis Ababa Agreement: Was It Destined to Fail and Are There Lessons for the Current Sudan Peace Process?" 20, no. 1 pp 239-59.

Singer J. and M. Small. (1972). “The Wages of Wars”: A Statically Hand Book. New York: Wiley.

Solomon A. Deresso (2017). “Contributor Profile: Ethiopia” College of Law and Governance Studies, Addis Ababa University.

Stephen John Stedman (1991) "Conflict and Conflict Resolution in Africa: A Conceptual Framework," in Conflict Resolution in Africa, ed. Francis M. Deng and I. William Zartman (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1991), 367-99.

Tamene Hiboro (2019). “The Role of IGAD in Resolution of the Conflict of South Sudan” A Thesis Submitted to School of Law Postgraduate Program in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Laws (LL.M in Public International Law).

The sudd institute, (2014), “South Sudan’s Crisis’: Its Drivers, Key Players, and Post-conflict Prospects.

Tewodros Mebratu (2015). “causes, consequences and roles of external actors in the current south Sudan conflict”. MA thesis Addis Ababa University.

Telhloach Ruey (2017), “The South Sudanese Conflict Analysis Conflict Profile, Causes, Actors and Dynamics”. Doctoral Thesis.

Tilly C. (2003). The Politics of Collective Violence, New York: Cambridge University Press.

Timothy Kulang (2018) “South Sudan: The dilemma of a protracted social conflict (2018) Journal of Economic and Social Thought Vol 5 Issue 3 268.

Wagari Guluma (2017) “The Role of Ethiopia in Peace Process and Conflict Resolution at the Horn of Africa and Impacts of Military Intervention in Somalia Post 1991” The Journal of Social Sciences Research Vol. 3, No. 11, pp: 108-114, 2017.

Waltz k. (1979) “Theories of International Politics”.

Wallensten peter (2012). “Understanding Conflict Resolution”: War, Peace and Global system, sage publication (pp 13 – 28).

Wall James and Timothy Dunne (2013). “Mediation research” a current review. Negotiation journal page 217-244.

Wosenu Mekuria (2013). “The Socio-Economic Impact of South Sudanese refugees on the Host Community in Ethiopia: the Case of Pugnido Refugee Camp: Pugnido, Gambella Region”. Thesis the Degree of Masters of Art in African Studies in Addis Ababa University.

Xinhua News (2018). “Ethiopia's continued role "vital" in South Sudan peace talks”: official.

Yehudit Ronen (2002). “Ethiopia's Involvement in the Sudanese Civil War”: Was It as Significant as Khartoum Claimed Northeast African Studies, New Series, Vol. 9, No. 1 (2002), pp. 103-126 Published by: Michigan State University Press.

Yohannes T (2015), “Challenges for peace in south Sudan”: problems and opportunities’ of solving the current civil war; Lecturer, Dire Dawa University, (ETHIOPIA). International Researchers Volume, No.4 Issue No.2 June.

Yohannes Gedamu (2019). “South Sudan peace deal offers promising end to conflict. But challenges remain”.

Yusuf K, Mathias k, (2016), “Conflict and State Formation in South Sudan”: The Logic of Oil Revenues in Influencing the Dynamics of Elite Bargains, Vol.1.Isssue.

Zach Vertin (2018). “A Poisoned Well: Lessons in Mediation from South Sudan’s Troubled Peace Process”.

Zena Zumata (2000), “Styles of Mediation: Facilitative, Evaluative, and Transformative Mediation”.

Annex 1, Interview Guide What is the impact of south Sudan civil war on Ethiopia (social, political, security and economic)? 1. Does Ethiopia have a power to intervene to mediate the south Sudan conflict resolution? 2. Why Ethiopia engages itself mediates the two disputant parties? 3. What are the contributions or roles of Ethiopia during the war and mediation process? 4. What are the challenges of the mediation? 5. What are the implications of south Sudan mediation or conflict resolution on Ethiopia?

Annex 2, List of Key informants

Number Names of informants Position Date and place of interview 1 Ambassador Fesseha shawul General Director of Neighbouring May/17/2021 at Ministry Countries and IGAD Affairs of Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 2 Gedu Andargachew Former minister of Ethiopian May/18/2021 at Addis Foreign Affairs Ababa, Ethiopia 3 Dr. Abdeta Dribssa Executive Director of Center for May/18/2021 at Dialogue, Research and institution Center for Cooperation and former General Dialogue, Research and Director for African affairs at Cooperation Addis the ministry of foreign affairs Ababa, Ethiopia 4 Ambassador Ambassador of south Sudan in May/18/2021 at south Ethiopia and Djibouti Sudan embassy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Declaration I declare that “Ethiopia’s mediation Role in south Sudan conflict since 2013: Challenges and its implications” is my original work and that it has not been presented for obtaining any qualification in any other university. All sources used or quoted have been properly acknowledged.

Name: Aschale Abie Signature: ______Date: ______

June, 2021