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(Gcc): a Kuwaiti Perspective Durham E-Theses ECONOMIC AND MONETARY INTEGRATION IN THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC): A KUWAITI PERSPECTIVE ALTRAD, SAADI,S,E,F How to cite: ALTRAD, SAADI,S,E,F (2011) ECONOMIC AND MONETARY INTEGRATION IN THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC): A KUWAITI PERSPECTIVE , Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/899/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk 2 DURHAM UNIVERSITY ECONOMIC AND MONETARY INTEGRATION IN THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC): A KUWAITI PERSPECTIVE By SAADI S. F. AL TRAD A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Government and International Affairs Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies 2011 Abstract ABSTRACT The State of Kuwait is has been a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since its establishment in 1980. Kuwait is a geographically small but oil-rich country, whose economic development in recent years is the result of an increase in both the production and prices of oil, which now accounts for almost 90% of exports. Meanwhile Kuwait imports almost all its local market needs from abroad. In 2010 the Kuwaiti government passed a development plan which was intended to diversify the Kuwaiti economy and promote non- oil economic sectors. Kuwait has an open economy, and is an ally of its GCC neighbours and the West. It is a member of the World Trade Organisation, which helps to enhance the country’s exports and imports. At the same time Kuwait is committed to advancing Economic and Monetary Integration with the GCC countries, and put into practice the guidelines which will make the Currency and Economic Union successful. This study will extend the literature on Economic and Monetary Integration in the context of the GCC monetary union. A literature review of the theory of Optimum Currency Areas (OCA) examines the development of exchange rate policy and monetary unions. Investigating and assessing Kuwait’s national interest in joining the GCC currency union is the main objective of this thesis. The study applies both quantitative and qualitative approaches to estimating the likely costs and benefits. In the study annual published data is used to analyse the country’s main economic structure and indicators, and semi-structured interviews are used to ascertain the opinions of Kuwaiti nationals working in financial institutions concerning monetary union. The conclusion of our study is that Kuwait is ready to join the GCC monetary union, the benefits of membership outweighing the costs. Having an oil-based economy like that of other GCC countries will make it easier for Kuwait to join the GCC monetary union. In addition, Kuwait imports products from abroad to meet local demand and controls inflation through its exchange rate regime. The Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK) is the sole authority managing the country’s monetary policy and the financial sector. However, GCC monetary union will subordinate the CBK to the Gulf Central Bank and reduce its flexibility to use its own monetary tools. ii Declaration DECLARATION I solemnly declare that none of the content of this thesis has been used to fulfil any form of requirement in completing any university degree in any other discipline or academic institution. iii Statement of Copyright STATEMENT OF COPYRIGHT This thesis is copyrighted solely to the author. Its contents may not be copied, reproduced or republished in any way (either in machine-readable or in printed form) without the author’s written consent. All information deriving from this thesis must be acknowledged appropriately if used elsewhere. iv List of Abbreviations LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS Afristat Statistical Organizations in Africa AUD Australian Dollar B/D Barrel per day CAP Common Agricultural Policy CBK Central Bank of Kuwait CFA Communauté Financière Africaine CHF Swiss Franc CIP Covered interest rate parity CPI Consumer Price Index CU Currency Union EA Economic Agreement EMU European Monetary Union EPU European Payments Union EUR Euro, the official currency of the Eurozone Eurostat European Union FOB Freight on board FX Foreign exchange market GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade v List of Abbreviations GBP British Pound Sterling GCC Gulf Co-operation Council GDP Gross domestic product IMF International Monetary Fund JPY Japanese Yen KD Kuwaiti Dinar KSE Kuwait Stock Exchange LOOP Law of One Price M1 Currency in circulation with the public + sight deposits (private deposits in KD). ‘Money’ means money supply in its narrow definition (MI). M2 Money supply, including savings deposits with banks M3 Money supply, including inter-bank deposits NZD New Zealand Dollar OCA Optimum Currency Area OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OEEC Organization for European Economic Co-operation PPP Purchasing Power Parity QM Quasi-money savings deposits (in KD) + time deposits (in KD) + foreign currency deposits + CDs (in KD). The private sector maintains quasi-money components with local banks. RER Real exchange rate SITC Standard International Trade Classification SWOT Strength, weakness, opportunities, and threat vi List of Abbreviations UIP Uncovered interest rate parity WEC Wisconsin Energy Corporation WPI Wholesale Price Index WTO World Trade Organization USD United States Dollar vii Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract..................................................................................................................................ii Declaration............................................................................................................................iii Statement of Copyright .........................................................................................................iv List of Abbreviations.............................................................................................................. v Table of Contents................................................................................................................viii List of Tables ......................................................................................................................xiii List of Figures..................................................................................................................... xvi Glossary.............................................................................................................................. xix Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................. xxv CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY .................................................................................... 5 1.3 BACKGROUND............................................................................................................ 6 1.4 STUDY METHODOLOGY........................................................................................... 8 1.5 ORGANIZATION AND OUTLINE OF THE STUDY................................................... 8 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 11 2.2 THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM ...................................................... 12 2.3 THE INTERNATIONAL GOLD STANDARD, 1879–1913 ........................................ 13 viii Table of Contents 2.4 THE BRETTON WOODS AGREEMENT, 1945 ......................................................... 15 2.5 THE FIXED RATE DOLLAR STANDARD, 1950–1970 ............................................ 16 2.6 THE FLOATING RATE DOLLAR STANDARD, 1973– ............................................ 18 2.7 MONETARY UNION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION........................................ 20 2.8 OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREAS AND MONETARY UNION.................................. 25 2.9 CONCLUSION............................................................................................................ 41 CHAPTER 3: EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS 3.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 44 3.2 WHAT IS THE EXCHANGE RATE?.......................................................................... 45 3.3 FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS........................................................................... 47 3.4 EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOUR............................................................................. 48 3.5 DEVELOPMENT OF THE KUWAITI DINAR AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES.................................................................................................................... 54 3.6 HISTORY OF KD RATES AGAINST THE USD........................................................ 57 3.7 KD EXCHANGE RATES AGAINST
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