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Building the Climate Change Resilience of Mongolia's Blue Pearl

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Building the Climate Change Resilience of Mongolia's Blue Pearl Building the Climate Change Resilience of Mongolia’s Blue Pearl A Case Study of Khuvsgul Lake National Park Climate change threatens to undermine the conservation values of protected areas, such as Khuvsgul Lake National Park (KLNP), one of Mongolia’s largest and most visited parks. Khuvsgul Lake is sacred to Mongolians and is known locally as the Blue Pearl. This publication presents the first quantitative assessment of the potential impacts of climate change to a protected area in Mongolia in relation to three dimensions: biodiversity, livelihoods, and tourism. Building resilience to climate change for the KLNP is critical and requires collaboration and coordination between national and international agencies, focused on addressing unsustainable livestock grazing and unmanaged tourism, improving habitat connectivity, and strengthening park management. About the Asian Development Bank ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its eorts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in , it is owned by members — from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE OF MONGOLIA’S BLUE PEARL A CASE STUDY OF KHUVSGUL LAKE NATIONAL PARK Mark R. Bezuijen, Michael Russell, Robert J. Zomer, and D. Enkhtaivan DECEMBER ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK www.adb.org BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE OF MONGOLIA’S BLUE PEARL A Case STUDY OF KHUVSGUL LAKE National PARK Mark R. Bezuijen, Michael Russell, Robert J. Zomer, and D. Enkhtaivan DECEMBER 2020 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2020 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2020. ISBN 978-92-9262-608-2 (print), 978-92-9262-609-9 (electronic), 978-92-9262-610-5 (ebook) Publication Stock No. TCS200404-2 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS200404-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions and terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact [email protected] if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use the ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars. ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China and “Russia” as the Russian Federation. On the cover: Khuvsgul Lake National Park, one of Mongolia’s most visited protected areas, supports global biodiversity values, traditional grazing lands, and a rapidly growing tourism industry, centered around the country’s largest freshwater lake, Khuvsgul Lake. Overgrazing, unmanaged tourism, and climate change are threatening these values (photos by Mark R. Bezuijen and Michael Russell). Cover design by Jasper Lauzon. Contents Tables and Figures iv Foreword v Acknowledgments vi Abbreviations vii Weights and Measures vii Executive Summary viii Executive Summary (Mongolian) xi 1 Introduction 1 Protected Areas and Climate Change in Mongolia 2 Objectives of the Study 3 Approach 3 2 Khuvsgul Lake National Park 4 3 How Is the Climate Changing? 7 Climate of Khuvsgul Lake National Park 7 Observed Changes, 1963–2016 7 Projected Changes by 2050 9 4 Bioclimatic Zones and Ecosystems 15 Bioclimatic Zones 15 Ecosystems 17 Matching Bioclimatic Zones with Ecosystems 22 5 Impacts of Climate Change 24 Bioclimatic Zones 24 Ecological Values 28 Livelihoods 33 Tourism 34 Park Management 36 6 Building Resilience to Climate Change 38 Addressing Existing Threats 38 Improving Habitat Connectivity 43 Strengthening Park Management 44 7 Role of the Asian Development Bank 46 Country Partnership Strategy 46 Project Support, 2016–2024 46 Contributing to Climate Change Resilience 48 Appendix: Methodology 51 Glossary of Technical Terms 56 References 57 iii Tables and Figures Tables 1 Measured Changes in Air Temperature in Khatgal Town (1963–2016) and Khankh Town 8 (1985–2016) in Khuvsgul Lake National Park 2 Modeled Baseline (1960–1990, WorldClim) for Air Temperature and Growing Degree Days 10 in Khuvsgul Lake National Park 3 Projected Increases in Temperature and Growing Degree Days at Khuvsgul Lake National Park 10 by 2050, Based on the WorldClim (1960–1990) Baseline 4 Modeled Baseline (1960–1990, WorldClim) for Precipitation-Related Parameters for Khuvsgul Lake 12 National Park 5 Projected Changes in Precipitation-Related Parameters at Khuvsgul Lake National Park 13 by 2050, Compared with the Baseline (1960–1990, WorldClim) 6 Bioclimatic Zones and Strata of Khuvsgul Lake National Park, under the Baseline Conditions 16 (1960–1990, WorldClim) 7 Ecosystems in Khuvsgul Lake National Park 17 8 Aggregated Ecosystem Categories for Khuvsgul Lake National Park 19 9 Spatial Extent of the Ecosystem Categories of Khuvsgul Lake National Park within a 50-kilometer 21 Search Area, including Two Protected Areas 10 Spatial Extent of the Ecosystem Categories of Khuvsgul Lake National Park within Surrounding 21 Soum Lands 11 Proportion of Area Occupied by Ecosystems under Environmental Strata in Khuvsgul Lake 23 National Park, under the Baseline Conditions (1960–1990) 12 Projected Changes in the Distribution of Environmental Strata in Khuvsgul Lake National Park 26 by 2050, Compared with the Baseline Conditions (1960–1990) 13 Mean Elevation of Bioclimatic Zones of Khuvsgul Lake National Park (under the Baseline Conditions) 27 and Projected Changes by 2050 (under RCP8.5) 14 Projected Changes in the Extent of Ecosystems and Bioclimatic Zones in Khuvsgul Lake National 30 Park by 2050, Compared with the Baseline Conditions (1960–1990) 15 Proportion of Ecosystems within the Management Zones of Khuvsgul Lake National Park, 36 under the Baseline Conditions (1960–1990) Figures 1 Map of Khuvsgul Lake National Park, Showing the Areas Described in This Report 5 2 Projected Mean Annual Maximum and Minimum Temperatures at Khuvsgul Lake National Park 11 by 2050, Compared with the Baseline (1960–1990, WorldClim) 3 Projected Number of Growing Degree Days at Khuvsgul Lake National Park by 2050, Compared 12 with the Baseline (1960–1990, WorldClim) 4 Projected Mean Annual Precipitation in Khuvsgul Lake National Park by 2050, Compared with 13 the Baseline (1960–1990, WorldClim) 5 Projected Mean Annual Potential Evapotranspiration at Khuvsgul Lake National Park by 2050, 14 Compared with the Baseline (1960–1990, WorldClim) 6 Projected Aridity–Wetness Index at Khuvsgul Lake National Park by 2050, Compared with 14 the Baseline (1960–1990, WorldClim) 7 Bioclimatic Zones and Strata of Khuvsgul Lake National Park, under the Baseline Conditions 16 (1960–1990, WorldClim) 8 Distribution of Ecosystems in Khuvsgul Lake National Park 18 9 Bioclimatic Zones Overlaid with the Ecosystem Categories in Heiner et al. (2017) for Khuvsgul 22 Lake National Park, under the Baseline Conditions (1960–1990) 10 Bioclimatic Zones of Khuvsgul Lake National Park (under the Baseline Conditions) and 25 Projected Changes by 2050 (under RCP8.5) 11 Projected Changes in the Elevations of Environmental Strata in Khuvsgul Lake National Park by 2050, 27 Compared with the Baseline Conditions (1960–1990) iv Foreword ince the outbreak and global spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), there has been renewed and growing awareness of the need to protect nature. Protected areas are fundamental in this regard: they are Splaces that help maintain healthy populations of plants and animals and protect the natural systems upon which life is based, including ecosystem services such as water supply and flood regulation. They provide a buffer from the risk of disease outbreaks and the impacts of climate change. Maintaining protected areas in good condition is critical to help protect nature and people, yet protected areas globally are under threat. Now, more than ever, as part of efforts toward a nature-based recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, there is a need to support the design, planning, and management of protected areas. Mongolia’s protected areas encompass deserts, grasslands, and snow-capped mountains—a stunning expanse of wilderness that supports globally important biodiversity values and nomadic patterns of life largely unchanged for thousands of years. Comprising a mosaic of parks and reserves, these areas support some of the largest and most intact natural systems remaining in the world, including pristine lakes and undammed rivers.
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