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Climate Change Impacts

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Climate Change Impacts Photo by Urabazaev LAKE BAIKAL BASIN TRANSBOUNDARY DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS April 2013 Editor: Dr. Saskia A.E. Marijnissen Cover design and layout: Dr. Anna Rynkova Support in the preparation of this document was provided by the Project on Integrated Natural Resource Management in the Baikal Basin Transboundary Ecosystem, which is financed by the Global Environment Facility, with support from the United Nations Development Programme, and executed by the United Nations Office for Project Services. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) unites 182 member governments – in partnership with international institutions, civil society, and the private sector providing grants to developing countries and countries with economies in transition, linking local, national, and global environmental challenges in order to promote sustainable futures for all. Established in 1991, the GEF is today the largest public funder of projects to improve the global environment investing in over 2,700 projects. www.thegef.org The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) partners with people at all levels of society to help build nations that can withstand crisis, and drive and sustain the kind of growth that improves the quality of life for everyone. On the ground in 177 countries and territories, UNDP offers global perspective and local insight to help empower lives and build resilient nations. www.undp.org The United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) mission is to expand the capacity of the UN system and its partners to implement peacebuilding, humanitarian and development operations that matter for people in need. Working in some of the world’s most challenging environments UNOPS vision is to always satisfy partners with management services that meet world-class standards of quality, speed and cost effectiveness. www.unops.org Disclaimer The findings and conclusions of this document are those of the adopting parties and do not necessarily reflect the policies or opinions of donors and supporting partners including GEF, UNDP, and UNOPS. Photo by Urabazaev Contents ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ............................................................................................... 8 GLOSSARY OF TERMS ................................................................................................................... 9 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................... 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. 12 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 17 1.1 LAKE BAIKAL AND ITS CATCHMENT BASIN ....................................................................... 17 1.2 NEED FOR ACTION ............................................................................................................... 18 1.3 PURPOSE OF THE TDA ........................................................................................................ 19 1.4 TDA-SAP PROCESS AND PRINCIPLES ............................................................................... 19 1.5 METHODS USED FOR UPDATING THE TDA ....................................................................... 20 1.6 BOUNDARIES AND CONDITIONS OF THE TDA .................................................................. 20 DESCRIPTION OF THE LAKE BAIKAL BASIN ............................................................................... 25 2.1 PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS ........................................................................................... 25 2.1.1 GEOGRAPHIC AND GEOMORPHOLOGICAL FEATURES .................................................. 25 2.1.2 SURFACE WATER HYDROLOGY ......................................................................................... 27 2.1.3 GROUNDWATER HYDROLOGY ........................................................................................... 29 2.1.4 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ....................................................................................................... 31 2.2 BIODIVERSITY AND NATURAL RESOURCES ..................................................................... 33 2.2.1 TERRESTRIAL HABITATS AND BIODIVERSITY .................................................................. 33 2.2.2 WETLAND HABITATS AND BIODIVERSITY ......................................................................... 36 2.2.3 RIVERINE HABITATS AND BIODIVERSITY .......................................................................... 37 2.2.4 AQUATIC HABITATS AND BIODIVERSITY IN LAKE BAIKAL .............................................. 38 2.2.5 PROTECTED AREAS ............................................................................................................ 42 2.2.6 LAND USE PATTERNS .......................................................................................................... 46 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC BACKGROUND .................................................................................... 51 3.1 DEMOGRAPHY AND URBANISATION .................................................................................. 51 3.2 SOCIAL CHARACTERISTICS ................................................................................................ 55 3.2.1 EDUCATION .......................................................................................................................... 55 3.2.2 GENDER EQUALITY .............................................................................................................. 55 3.3 SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................... 56 3.4 ECONOMIC SECTORS .......................................................................................................... 59 3.4.1 HUNTING AND FISHERIES ................................................................................................... 61 3.4.2 AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK KEEPING ........................................................................ 64 3.4.3 FORESTRY ............................................................................................................................ 71 3.4.4 TOURISM ............................................................................................................................... 73 3.4.5 INDUSTRY ............................................................................................................................. 76 3.4.6 MINING ................................................................................................................................... 77 3.4.7 MINERAL AND ENERGY RESOURCES ................................................................................ 79 3.4.8 PETROLEUM AND GAS PRODUCTION ............................................................................... 80 3.4.9 ENERGY PRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 80 3.4.10 TRANSPORT ....................................................................................................................... 83 ASSESSMENT OF MAJOR TRANSBOUNDARY CHALLENGES .................................................. 85 4.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 85 Photo by Elena Chumak 4.1.1 IDENTIFICATION AND PRIORITISATION OF PERCEIVED PROBLEMS ............................. 85 4.1.2 OVERVIEW OF PERCEIVED PROBLEMS IN THE BAIKAL BASIN ....................................... 87 4.2 PROBLEM AREA 1: DEGRADATION OF AQUATIC AND TERRESTRIAL HABITATS .......... 89 4.2.1 DESCRIPTION & TRANSBOUNDARY RELEVANCE ............................................................ 89 4.2.2 ECOSYSTEM CHANGES ....................................................................................................... 89 4.2.2.1 PRESENT AND FUTURE IMPACTS ................................................................................... 91 4.2.2.2 CHALLENGES FOR FUTURE MANAGEMENT .................................................................. 91 4.2.3 DEFORESTATION ................................................................................................................. 91 4.2.3.1 PRESENT AND FUTURE IMPACTS ................................................................................... 94 4.2.3.2 CHALLENGES FOR FUTURE MANAGEMENT .................................................................. 95 4.2.4 DEGRADATION OF AGRICULTURAL, PASTURE, AND RANGELANDS ............................. 96 4.2.4.1 PRESENT AND FUTURE IMPACTS ................................................................................... 97 4.2.4.2 CHALLENGES FOR FUTURE MANAGEMENT .................................................................. 98 4.3. PROBLEM AREA 2: HYDROLOGICAL REGIME CHANGES ............................................... 101 4.3.1 DESCRIPTION & TRANSBOUNDARY RELEVANCE .......................................................... 101 4.3.2 WATER LEVEL DECREASE ................................................................................................ 102 4.3.2.1 PRESENT AND FUTURE IMPACTS ................................................................................. 104 4.3.2.2 CHALLENGES FOR FUTURE SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT ....................................... 105 4.3.3 WATER LEVEL INCREASE .................................................................................................
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