The Whispering Trades

VOLUME 2, ISSUE 1 | San Juan,

J U N E 2 0 1 4 From the Desk of the Meteorologist In Charge

By: Roberto García

Meteorologist Roberto García, Summer is here again. This time of the year INSIDE THIS ISSUE: always brings up images of festivals or ac-

2013-14 Swell tivities under the sun on white sandy 2 is Over beaches. Festivities like San Juan Day on

- June 23 and Independence Day on July 4 in

- Dry Season 3 come to mind when large crowds gather at Charge the local beaches in Puerto Rico and The

Flood Safety 3 U.S. Virgin islands. Summer is also the sea- Preparedness son when the daily afternoon shower and Below Normal 4 thunderstorm activity begins to affect por- Forecast 2014 tions of our forecast area with heavy The National Weather Service Forecast Office 4th Coop in San Juan wants to invite you to enjoy this 5-6 downpours. As the summer progresses, we Appreciation Day move deeper into the hurricane season summer season responsibly. We want you to 2014 Media with tropical disturbances moving west enjoy the sun and the white sandy beaches and 6 Workshop across the islands every three or four days. also be aware of the possible dangers that you Reggina These disturbances could bring with them could face. This year, the forecast office in San 7 Cabrera’s visit widespread rainfall. A few of these disturb- Juan wants, not only to continue to increase ances will develop into full blown tropical the awareness of threats, but Puerto Rico 7 also put new emphasis on other threats that CoCoRaHs cyclones as we approach the peak of the hurricane season in August and September. are far more common. Rip currents are the U.S. Virgin leading surf hazard for all beachgoers. Rip cur- Islands are 8 Some cyclones could pass close or even TsunamiReady directly affect the local islands. The NOAA rents can occur at any surf beach with breaking waves and these currents can sweep even the SPORT outlook for the hurricane season this year Collaborative 9 calls for a slightly below normal season strongest swimmer out to sea. Around 30 Partner of the Year with 8-13 named storms, out of those 3-6 deaths a year can be attributed to rip currents Hurricane hurricanes and out those 1-3 major hurri- along the local islands beaches. Summer is also Returned 10 canes. A first reaction from most would be the peak season for one of the deadliest Periods to think that, since the numbers are lower weather phenomena--lightning. There is no Effective 11 than previous years, so also will be the safe place outside when thunderstorms are in Communication threat to the local area. Nothing could be the area. If you hear thunder, you are likely When an 12 further from the truth. It does not matter within striking distance of the storm. For orga- Earthquake Strikes how active or inactive a season is expected nized outdoor activities, the National Weather Did You Know? 13 to be, it only takes one. We should always Service recommends that organizers have a be prepared and review our family prepar- lightning safety plan, and that they follow the edness plan at the beginning of the season. plan without exception.

The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue1 1 2013-14 Swell Season is Over!

By: Carlos M. Anselmi and Ernesto Rodríguez Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin longshore currents as well few years. Only six events the U.S. northeastern Islands’ wave climate is as rip currents (Figure 1). with swell of 8 feet or more coast, producing winds mainly affected by winter were observed from greater than 70 knots. swells, hurricane force Longshore currents are November through April by The low pressure system waves, and locally generated when waves the local buoy network had a broad wind field generated waves. Each year break at the coast inducing (Figure 2), with only one of that aimed a long period our coastal areas are currents parallel to the them surpassing the 10 feet swell toward the influenced by wind waves shoreline. On the other mark. The biggest event of northeast Caribbean. which can be divided into: hand, rip currents are the year occurred on the last These large long period wind-seas and swells. Wind week of March, were swell swells battering the coast -seas are waves generated resulted in high breaking by local winds. In contrast, waves, strong coastal swells are waves that travel currents, coastal erosion in groups and are generated and along by distant weather systems north facing coastlines of outside of the local area. Puerto Rico and the U.S. These swells propagate Virgin Islands. Please keep away from their generation in mind that even when area into our forecast area our coastal areas are not impacting our coastlines. been affected by large Locally we can divide the long period swells, other wave seasons in two: the Figure 1. Rip currents and longshore currents diagram. Both currents are generated by breaking wave action. However, rip currents can form in the factors can create winter season, extending vicinity of groins, jetties, piers or other man-made structures. Image hazardous marine from November to April, courtesy of the Division of Nearshore Research at Texas A&M University. conditions like local and the summer season waves and winds. That’s from May through October. localized currents moving height reached 13 feet with a why we, the San Juan Wave climatology reveals away from the beach at period of 16 seconds. This Weather Forecast Office, that on the North Coast of high speed. Other impacts event was generated by an strongly encourage you to Puerto Rico, 40 % of the of long period swells are intense low pressure system check the forecast before wind waves come from the coastal erosion and coastal that quickly intensified along going to the beach. east northeast, 21 % from flooding. In general, the the north east, 22 % from erosion rate tends to the east, 9 % from the north increase during the winter northeast, 3.5 % from the season, when large swells north with the remaining hit the coastlines removing from other directions, sediments from beaches. whereas on the south coast Coastal flooding occurs more than 70 % range from when large breaking waves the southeast to the at the coast generate northeast direction. Long flooding in long lying areas period swells during the along the shore. These winter season impact our processes endanger the life coastlines. and safety of beachgoers and negatively impact The combination of the properties along the swell height and swell coastline. period can significantly increase the breaking The 2013-14 swell season Figure 2. Summary of the 2013-14 swell season at the San Juan buoy waves. Large breaking was one of the most (41043). Upper part shows wave period in seconds and direction. The waves can generate strong inactive seasons of the past bottom part illustrates wave height in feet.

The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 1 2 Dry Season of 2014 By: Althea Austin-Smith Along with a weak Marine Swell Season came the Dry Season of 2014. The Dry Season was literally hot and dry with all the climatological statistics to support this. The percent of normal rainfall as of April - year to date continued to show rainfall deficits across the majority of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands except for St. Croix where value a slightly above normal. March was incredibly dry across Puerto Rico. Temperature-wise, year to date through April, 2014 ranked as the 2nd warmest start to the year for San Juan, PR and the 6th warmest start of the year for St, Croix USVI. The river and stream levels also showed the

dry trend although as is expected, May brought significant rainfall to

much of the region creating the opportunity for some much needed recharge along with some significant localized flash flooding. The question now becomes, what is on tap as we enter into the wet/hurricane season? Currently, the region is in an “El Niño Watch” which has a profound impact to the climate of our region. This is all explained by “The Enso Cycle”; the state of the ocean and atmosphere across the tropical Pacific. Based on our local ENSO study , an El Niño leads to the possibility of a drier than normal summer.

If that is the case, it is very important that we use the water saving tips that are located throughout this Newsletter, which will help to conserve water. Small changes can have a huge impact if millions of people are involved.

Flood Safety Preparedness By: Althea Austin-Smith Every year during the property that can occur in to include Flood Safety month of March, the any of the fifty states or Preparation including National Weather U.S. territories at any time applying for Flood Service (NWS) makes of year.” While many of Insurance if needed. considerable effort to us are prepared for educate our customers hurricanes and severe Along with the regular about the importance of weather, many do not campaign this year, we flood preparation think about and/or also revealed the local through its National prepare for the potential States Pages for PR and Flood Safety Awareness devastation of floods until the USVI, which give a Week campaign. The it is too late. There are summary of significant NWS states, “On numerous ways in which floods which impacted average, flooding causes floods impact our our local islands. If you more property damage community so when enjoy a piece of history, in the United States preparing for the visit our States Page. than any other weather upcoming hurricane Flooding can be a hazard related event. It is a season, take the time to from many types of why we should always be threat to life and extend that preparation weather events which is prepared.

The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 1 3 Below Normal Forecast for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Gary Votaw The National Oceanic Watch, stating a 65 Similar to various other other, seasonal and Atmospheric percent chance of organizations (Table 1), outlook. It is also Administration (NOAA) development by NOAA predicts lower important that one issued its final forecast summer. The significance than normal activity, but understands the of the number of of an El Niño is that it it was careful to point difference between tropical storms and tends to cause wind out that this is not a National Weather hurricanes before the shear over the Atlantic at forecast of how many Service watches and start of the hurricane various levels, often storms will make landfall warnings which is season beginning June critical to preparing for 1. The prediction (Fig. 1) any dangerous weather includes a 70 percent hazard. Remember, if chance that the number any tropical storm or of named storms (winds hurricane threatens of 39 mph or higher) in Puerto Rico or the U.S. the Atlantic Basin to be Virgin Islands, don't from 8 to 13, including 3 wait until the last to 6 hurricanes (74 mph minute to prepare. or higher) and 1 or 2 of NOAA, the Federal those being major (111 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast (NOAA) Emergency mph or more). The Management Agency forecast also states that preventing storms from and that it only takes a (FEMA), the National there is a 50 percent forming or tearing apart single storm to have Hurricane Center chance that the season existing ones. A disastrous impacts. (NHC), and the will have below normal secondary reason for American Red Cross all activity and only a 10 forecasting a quieter Hurricane disasters can provide important percent chance that it season is that the occur whether the hurricane preparedness will be above normal. Atlantic Ocean water season is active or information on their temperatures are near relatively quiet. It only web sites. The primary reason for normal rather than takes one hurricane (or the below normal above normal as has tropical storm) to cause a forecast is the probable been the case since disaster. Residents, development of an El 1995. Warmer water businesses, and Niño. The Climate provides more potential government agencies are Prediction Center (also for evaporation and urged to prepare for part of NOAA) has latent heat to the every hurricane season issued an El Niño atmosphere. regardless of this, or any

Normal (seasonal Met Office The Weather Colorado State NOAA average) (U.K.) Channel University

Named storms 12 8-13 7-13 11 9 Hurricanes 6 3-6 3-9 5 3

Major Hurricanes 3 1-2 2 1

Forecasts of the 2014 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin by selected groups.

The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 1 4 4th Cooperative Weather Observer Appreciation Day By: Rosalina Vázquez-Torres

On May 3 2014, in honor of our cooperative weather observers, we celebrated the 4th Cooperative Weather Observer Appreciation Day. This activity was performed with gratitude and recognition of the hard work of the volunteer observers who collect important and reliable daily data for our agency.

The National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) is truly the Nation's weather and climate observing network of, by and for the people. More than 11,000 volunteers take observations on farms, in urban and suburban areas, National Parks, seashores, and mountaintops. A group of 55 observers comprises the COOP network in Puerto Rico and 12 in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The data are truly representative of where people live, work and play. Its mission is to provide observational meteorological data; usually consisting of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and 24-hour precipitation totals required to define the climate of the United States. This data helps measure long-term climate changes while also providing observational, meteorological data in near real-time to support forecast, warning and other public service programs of the NWS.

A cooperative station is a site where observations are taken or other services rendered by volunteers or contractors. Observers generally record temperature and precipitation daily and electronically send those reports to the NWS and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Additionally, COOP data plays a critical role in efforts to recognize and evaluate the extent of human impacts on climate from local to global scales. The work done by these observers is very important to climatology.

During the activity held at our office in Carolina, some of our observers with their families attended educational lectures such as “The importance of the observations for Climatology” and “Skywarn” presented by two of our meteorologists. They and their families also received a tour of our office followed by an Awards the NWS.

Presentation of awards by Ernesto Morales, NWS San Juan WCM and Rosalina Vazquez, NWS San Juan Hydrometeorological Technician.

The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 1 5 4th Cooperative Weather Observer 2014 Media Workshop Appreciation Day (.cont) By: Krizia Negrón

By: Rosalina Vázquez-Torres We, the National Weather Service, are “I want to thank the NWS for allow me be part a Federal agency with of the group”, commented Mr. Isaac Vélez, over 120 Forecast cooperative weather observer of Palmarejo, Offices throughout Vega Baja, “It’s an honor for me to be part of the United States, the volunteer group”. Alaska, Hawaii and Guam. It is important that we interact with other federal agencies, local government and the public in “You can always count on me. I am always order to fulfill our mission of saving life and property. This available for the NWS’s needs”, commented mandate only works if we maintain a close working Mr. Jorge Cintrón, observer of Juana Díaz. relationship with our local media.

On April 2nd, NWS San Juan hosted a Media Workshop involving reporters from television, newspaper and the “The job you do to our community is much web. Those present were experienced leaders in reporting appreciated. It’s been a pleasure for me to be local weather conditions in their respective specialty. Some part of this group for 10 yrs”, added Mr. Ángel of the topics presented were: our new fire weather Torres observer of Levittown, Toa Baja. products, routine and non-routine marine products, local modeling being developed in our office, the differences in the hydrology products most commonly used and the reasons when these are used. We also explained how to use our webpage to obtain climatology data for Puerto Rico and With these the U.S. Virgin Islands and how the NWS is using Social statements from Media to reach the public. some of the observers, we “This was a great opportunity for our staff to interact with concluded the the local media and for the reporters to know each other.” th successful 4 said Ernesto Morales, Warning Coordinator Meteorologist Cooperative and organizer of this year’s workshop. “This is the best way Weather to build strong bonds between the community who have Observer Appreciation Day. the same goal which is to save life and property.”

To our entire official Cooperative Weather “The workshop...was excellent, as they explained the main Observers: tools journalists can use to improve the publication of news articles relating to weather and climate.” said Frances We publicly express our sincere gratitude for Rosario, an El Nuevo Dia news reporter. She also added that the work, effort and contribution performed the presenters, “…also offered ideas on different angles that by you in a completely voluntary and should be highlighted to improve the transmission of the consistent manner. The uninterrupted data message.” reported are essential to establish our historical climatological records. It is a The overall feedback was positive from our guests and our pleasure for us to have you as part of our staff, as we had a great opportunity to discuss ideas and family. There are not enough words to thank concerns which has definitely improved both our all of you for your contributions. relationship and the content of weather information shared with the general public.

The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 1 6 Reggina Cabrera visits NWSFO San Juan Puerto Rico CoCoRaHS New Chapter By: Althea Austin-Smith By: Odalys Martínez Reggina Cabrera, the Hydrologist –in-Charge of the The National Weather Service and The Southeast River Forecast Center in Atlanta, Office of the State Climatologist are recently spent a week visiting NWSFO, San Juan. It looking for volunteers scattered across the was a busy week for all involved and it provided an island to measure and report the rain that opportunity to share policy, exchange ideas, and falls on their homes, farms, or businesses. observe local hydrologic operations while also On June 1, Puerto Rico joined the Community getting to know our local forecasters and their Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network, better hydrology concerns. Reginna believes that known as CoCoRaHS. This nationwide network of hydrologic support for the hydrologic service area volunteer weather observers helps to improve maps, can be improved with the developing of new tools, records and predictions as well as assist in filling in a “it is time to evaluate the feasibility of piece of the climate puzzle through the collection of implementing new tools with the objective of daily rainfall. This effort in Puerto improving the warning capabilities for Puerto Rico Rico is especially important given the and the US Virgin Islands”. great variation in rainfall with 170 to 175 inches of rain on an annual average at Sierra de Luquillo and El The visit concluded with a meeting between the Yunque to only 25 inches of rain on managers and representatives from the NWS and an annual average in the most arid some faculty from University of Puerto Rico in areas of Southern Puerto Rico. Mayaguez to discuss a collaborative project. After the meeting, Reggina expressed her enthusiasm, “Faculty from the UPRM is definitely interested in continuing these conversations and to participate This is truly a fun, educational community-based in the development of a hydrologic model that is project. Here are the basic requirements: adequate to represent the hydrography and (1) Have access to the internet. particularities of the Island(s).” (2) Have an official-type CoCoRaHS rain gauge. (3) Have a good site on your property with good The week was productive and numerous goals and exposure. objectives were met. The next step is to secure the (4) Be willing to enter your rainfall data on a commitment and the collaborative effort for the daily basis. long haul as we work towards implementing new hydrologic forecasting tools and procedures for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The non-profit CoCoRaHS network is sponsored in This is only the beginning. part by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Weather Service (NWS) and other individual contributors and organizations. The long-term goal of CoCoRaHS is ultimately to recruit one volunteer observer per square mile in urban areas and one volunteer observer per 36 square miles in rural. For more information on the Puerto Rico CoCoRaHS chapter and how do you become a CoCoRaHS observer, please visit: http://www.cocorahs.org/state.aspx? state=pr and contact one of the commonwealth NWS meets with UPR faculty in Mayaguez. From coordinators. Eventually, this program will be also left:Eric Harmsen, Reggina Cabrera, Roberto expanded to the U.S. Virgin Islands on 2015! García, Althea Austin-Smith, and Jay Alamo .

The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 1 7 The U.S. Virgin Islands are Tsunami Ready Submitted by: Ernesto Morales- based on the Official USVI Press Release

de Jongh said, being deemed Tsunami Ready can help save lives. The recognition is valid for three years or through March 2017. The governor used his remarks to welcome more than 50 scientists and emergency managers representing 17 countries and four scientific search organizations, coming together to continue the During the opening of the emergency operations center group's work to develop a Ninth Session of the and a 24-hour warning point Caribbean Tsunami Warning UNESCO Intergovernmental to receive tsunami System. Countries Coordinating Group on information. represented at the Tsunamis, Governor John P. conference included: de Jongh, Jr. announced that Over the last several years, Barbados, Colombia, the U.S. Virgin Islands have The VITEMA director Elton Curacao, Dominican been designated as Tsunami Lewis has worked together Republic, France, Haiti, Ready by the NOAA National with the Puerto Rico Seismic Mexico, Netherlands, Weather Service. “We have Network and the National Panama, , Saint worked long and hard for Weather Service personnel to Maarten, the United this recognition and as a develop an emergency plan Kingdom, United States and result of our efforts, the for the local Islands. The . territory is better prepared Virgin Islands has made to save lives from the significant achievements to onslaught of tsunamis reach Tsunami-Ready status, through our extensive installation of an early planning, education and warning siren system and tsu- public awareness. It is not a nami signs, implementing a matter of if, but a matter of mass notification system, VI when,” de Jongh said. Alerts, for instant alerts and TsunamiReady is granted by enhancing tsunami education NOAA once certain outreach and training requirements are met such programs. While no as establishing an community is tsunami proof, Image courtesy USVI Press Release.

The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 1 8 WFO SJU awarded SPoRT Collaborative Partner of the Year x By: Luis Rosa On December 2013, NASA’s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (NASA SPoRT) awarded the National Weather Service San Juan Forecast Office (NWS SJU) the SPoRT Collaborative Partner of the Year for extraordinary efforts in demonstrating the utility of experimental products in Weather Forecast Office (WFO) operations. Luis Rosa, Lead Forecaster, was also awarded the SPoRT Blog Post of the Year award for creativity and innovation in the blog post entitled “Tropical Rains Brings Historic Rains to San Juan, PR” for the historic rain event on July 18, 2013, in which, almost 10 inches of rain fell in a six-hour period.

During the period July-December 2013, WFO SJU evaluated the GOES-R Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE) product. The GOES-R QPE product is a satellite-based precipitation estimation product that is derived from both infrared (IR) and microwave data. GOES-R QPE is a GOES-R baseline product, and it is currently produced from GOES-East and GOES-West data as an experimental product. Its greatest utility is in data-deprived regions, like mountainous terrain, offshore, or over ocean areas and is intended to be used for rainfall events of significance areal coverage, duration, and intensity such as tropical cyclones and mesoscale convective systems (MCS’s).

The evaluation demonstrated the product has a significant low bias in rainfall estimates over PR primarily due warm-cloud and orographic rainfall in PR. The QPE algorithm was originally developed in the CONUS and assigns a rain rate based on cloud top temperature, in general, the colder the cloud top, the higher the rain rates. However, tropical islands such as PR and Hawaii can get much heavier rainfall from warm cloud tops than one would expect because of significant differences in composition between continental and maritime clouds (i.e. much bigger particles in the maritime clouds since they have their water locked up in a relatively small number of bigger droplets, thus heavier precipitation for a given cloud-top height) whereas the continental clouds have their water spread out among a much larger number of smaller droplets that are less likely to give in to the pull of gravity.

The main challenge in improving the algorithm is figuring out how to enable the algorithm to correctly identify these clouds with large particles and assign them heavier rainfall than one would expect from a continental cloud with similar brightness temperatures. Orographic rainfall is another factor that contributed to the low bias in rainfall estimates and is not currently accounted for in the GOES-R QPE algorithm. Resolution is another factor in the low bias in rainfall estimates; the coarse spatial resolution of the GOES-IR channel (currently 4km) is going to miss the smaller-scale extremes that will show up in individual gauge reports since the satellite represents an average value over an entire pixel.

WFO SJU also evaluated the Layered Precipitable Water (LPW) product from the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA). This product is a composite of water vapor retrievals for multiple layers using microwave sensors on polar orbiting satellites, mapped to a 16km grid. This product fills the gaps left by radiosondes and infrared channels which are only focused on upper level moisture. The LPW can be used to examine atmospheric rivers, understand the depth of moisture, show gradients in water vapor, and to judge confidence in model initialization. The evaluation indicated this product to be very accurate when compared to regional radiosondes and very useful in flooding and fire weather applications.

Future projects between WFO SJU and NASA-SPoRT involve the use of the Land-Information System (LIS) and the Green Vegetation Factor (GVF) from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) expected to become available in July 2014 to help improve short-term fire weather, marine, and hydrology forecasts and improve situational awareness.

The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 1 9 Hurricane Returned Periods for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

By: Ernesto Rodríguez

Many of us ask the expected within a given period estimates, it After obtaining the same question every distance of a given should be noted that trajectory plots year before the location. In this case, the there is high uncertainty (above), we were able hurricane season starts; return periods were of when a hurricane to compute the return when the next calculated using a 100 might strike a given periods for the hurricane or major nautical mile radius from island but it will be close different categories hurricane will impact Puerto Rico (see Fig. 1). enough to impact your which are listed in the our region? Looking Even with these return local area in some way. table below. back to history, the official NOAA/WMO database of hurricanes (IBTrACS) can give us a rough idea of hurricane return periods. Hurricane return periods are the frequency at which a certain intensity of hurricane can be

Table 1 lists these return periods for hurricanes and major hurricanes and shows Figure 1: Tropical storms and hurricanes that passed about 100 n mi of Puerto Rico since 1842. A that the most probable chronological list of all known hurricanes that formed across the Atlantic basin from 1842-2013 can be found hurricane that could in this link: http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes. affect our area is a hurricane Category 2 Hugo made landfall over directly by a hurricane in successive years or twice with a return period of , USVI as in a given year, but based on history, this is not 8.2 years. Some Category 4, weakening to probable. examples of hurricanes Category 3 when it made Category 2 that affected landfall in Vieques and Return Period in Years for Hurricanes the Puerto Rico and the Eastern Puerto Rico on U.S. Virgin Islands in the September 18, 1989. Category Wind Speed Return Period Another example, the last few decades were 1 74-95 mph 9.1 years (2008), notorious San Felipe Hurricane Georges hurricane of 1928 was the 2 96-110 mph 8.2 years (1998) and Hurricane only category 5 hurricane 3 111-129 mph 12.3 years that directly impacted Marilyn (1995). Puerto 4 130-156 mph 24.6 years Rico and the U.S. Virgin Puerto Rico since 1900. In Islands have not conclusion, hurricane 5 > 156 mph 86.0 years return periods do not experienced a major Table 1: Mean Hurricane Return Periods – northeast Caribbean hurricane for almost 25 mean that our region area. Considering 171 year (1842-2013) of data for hurricanes years when Hurricane cannot be impacted passing near or through Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands. Considering hurricanes that pass at 100 miles or less of PR & USVI.

The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 1 10

Effective Communication: To protect life and property during Hurricane Season

By: Félix Castro

“Science is not finished customers about the "What do we as an agency, If we can accomplish until it’s communicated” hazards produced by a need to do to effectively these key components, – UK chief scientist- hurricane or any tropical communicate our science we have more of a Professor Sir Mark system. Some of the topics information to our chance of being Walport, Chief Scientific covered were: the customers?" He responded: successful in our Advisor to the UK Hurricane Problem, the "Whenever the lives and “mission”. We continue government. High Wind, Coastal fFood livelihoods of our citizens to work with our and other hazards and are significantly threatened partners to prepare so The previous quote is the Crisis Communications. by hurricanes, the National that together we can key: Our job at the The challenge is how we Weather Service must be effectively National Weather Service achieve success during the effective in prompting the communicate with you, is not done until we hurricane season when right people to do the right our customers, in event effectively communicate things get very dangerous things at the right time. To of a hurricane threat. to our customers what and our goal is to protect be successful, we must We want to take this are the risks during any life and property but we provide critical support to opportunity to hazardous weather are unable to effectively our emergency emphasize the condition. With this in communicate the danger to management partners so importance of you also mind, our office the population. Without that they can readily make getting ready for the participated in the proper communication, key decisions which address upcoming 2014 “Effective Hurricane even with the best science, the hurricane hazards at Hurricane Season. If Messaging Course” from we don’t accomplish our hand. Then, together with you live in Puerto Rico February 24-28, 2014 at mission and therefore we our media partners, we or the U.S. Virgin the National Hurricane fail. must communicate a Islands get prepared Center in Miami, Florida. corresponding public safety and have a family plan. Lead forecaster, Felix I asked David Sharp, the message in which related Remember, it only Castro, was our Science & Operations scientific jargon about the takes one to hit the representative as he Officer at NWS in latest hurricane forecast area to cause joined colleagues from Melbourne, FL, who was and its uncertainty has been devastation and a 14 other coastal offices one of the instructors at translated into statements serious threat to life which are at risk during the course, the following of potential impact along and property. the hurricane season, question: with proportional calls-to- which runs from June 1, action." through November 30. National Hurricane Center,Miami, FL. EffectiveHurricane Messaging Course at The main purpose of this course was to learn how to effectively communicate our message to our

The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 1 11 When an Earthquake Strikes…

By: Walter Snell

Having lived in the Puerto Rico Seismic create bulletins to inform California, I have Network. Information may you of whether the experienced many also come in from the earthquake was in the tremors from slight to United States Geologic right place and strong moderate. No matter Survey’s National enough to generate a how steeled you are, to Earthquake Information tsunami. As soon as they feel the earth move Center (USGS/NEIC) in are released, forecasters beneath your feet is an Golden, Colorado and local at the National Weather Don’t Forget: unnerving experience. law enforcement agencies. Service again write radio The uncertainty! When The staff at our local office scripts for broadcast on Drop will it stop? Okay! immediately sends out a NOAA Weather Radio, and Okay, when will it stop Special Weather send out additional Cover getting stronger?!! Do I Statement with a tone statements. This run outside? Hide alert to make sure you continues until all danger Hold On under a desk or bed or have the latest is past. in a doorway? Knowing information. It then calls what to do and planning this information in to the So who would you call if will find the ahead of time with your emergency management you feel a strong questionnaire by family is a wise thing to agencies in Puerto Rico earthquake? Actually it pressing the large do. and the U.S. Virgin Islands would be better not to call orange button under the and the United States anyone unless you have a map that says, “report The National Weather Coast Guard. They also real emergency. The unknown event”. This Service also has a inform the regional office airwaves and lines will be will help us know how checklist of things to do in Fort Worth, Texas. crowded with panicky the community here felt after an earthquake and people. After you have the earthquake and it probably looks quite Soon information from all determined that you are what damages may have different from yours. over the world is analyzed safe, (remember in a occurred. Then listen to After taking care of local to determine the really strong earthquake NOAA Weather Radio for safety issues, magnitude, location, depth you should leave beach the latest information or information usually and orientation of the fault and coastal areas or move monitor the National begins streaming in line and the direction that up in a strong building to Tsunami Warning Center from many locations the slabs of the earth at least the third or fourth site on the internet. If including the National moved along the fault line. floor) you can help us by the internet is down, Tsunami Center in The information is fed filling out the local radio and TV Anchorage, Alaska and automatically into questionnaire called, “Did stations will carry the Pacific Tsunami computers in the major you feel it?” on the USGS important information as Warning Center, the national tsunami and site at this URL: http:// will the Puerto Rico and Caribbean Tsunami earthquake centers. This earthquake.usgs.gov/ Virgin Island Emergency Warning Program and information is used to earthquakes/dyfi/. You Management Agencies.

Here is a little quiz in Spanish. See if you can fill in the letters. ¿Qué hacer durante un terremoto?

1) A _ Á _ _ A T E 2) C _ _ _ E T E 3) S _ J _ T E 4) M _ N T _ N L A _ A _ _ A.

The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 1 12

When an Earthquake Strikes… National Weather Service’s Mission

"“The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, public, and global community."

Did you know that there are a lot of fun meteorology activities for kids to do during their summer vacation? Many of our cooperating agencies have kids’ activities. These are just a few and they are FREE! Reference for Water Saving Tips : Water Conservation From the NWS: Coalition of Santa Cruz County www.youngmeteorologist.org/game/index.html http://www.watersavingtips.org/tips.html

Answers to Earthquake Quiz:

From UCAR: http://eo.ucar.edu/webweather/

CALMA LA MANTÉN SUJÉTE

From the USGS: http://education.usgs.gov/kids/ CÚBRETE

AGÁCHATE From FEMA: http://www.ready.gov/kids/games

From NASA: http://climatekids.nasa.gov/ Our 3rd Edition Newsletter Team

If you would like some more fun stuff for the Althea Austin-Smith, Service Hydrologist summer for your kids … search around the web. Xiomara Cruz, Administrative Support Assistant You might just be surprised at what goodies you Krizia Negrón, Meteorologist Intern might find. Contact Us:

Visit us online on Facebook: National Weather Service Phone: (787) 253-4586 Follow us on Twitter at https://www.facebook.com/ 4000 Carretera 190, Fax: (787) 253-7802 @NWSSanJuan US.NationalWeatherService.SanJuan.gov Carolina, PR 00979 E-mail: [email protected]

The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 1 13