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VOLUME 2, ISSUE 1 National Weather Service | San Juan, Puerto Rico

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VOLUME 2, ISSUE 1 National Weather Service | San Juan, Puerto Rico The Whispering Trades VOLUME 2, ISSUE 1 National Weather Service | San Juan, Puerto Rico J U N E 2 0 1 4 From the Desk of the Meteorologist In Charge By: Roberto García Meteorologist García, Roberto Summer is here again. This time of the year INSIDE THIS ISSUE: always brings up images of festivals or ac- 2013-14 Swell tivities under the sun on white sandy 2 is Over beaches. Festivities like San Juan Day on - June 23 and Independence Day on July 4 in - Dry Season 3 come to mind when large crowds gather at Charge the local beaches in Puerto Rico and The Flood Safety 3 U.S. Virgin islands. Summer is also the sea- Preparedness son when the daily afternoon shower and Below Normal 4 thunderstorm activity begins to affect por- Forecast 2014 tions of our forecast area with heavy The National Weather Service Forecast Office 4th Coop in San Juan wants to invite you to enjoy this 5-6 downpours. As the summer progresses, we Appreciation Day move deeper into the hurricane season summer season responsibly. We want you to 2014 Media with tropical disturbances moving west enjoy the sun and the white sandy beaches and 6 Workshop across the islands every three or four days. also be aware of the possible dangers that you Reggina These disturbances could bring with them could face. This year, the forecast office in San 7 Cabrera’s visit widespread rainfall. A few of these disturb- Juan wants, not only to continue to increase ances will develop into full blown tropical the awareness of tropical cyclone threats, but Puerto Rico 7 also put new emphasis on other threats that CoCoRaHs cyclones as we approach the peak of the hurricane season in August and September. are far more common. Rip currents are the U.S. Virgin leading surf hazard for all beachgoers. Rip cur- Islands are 8 Some cyclones could pass close or even TsunamiReady directly affect the local islands. The NOAA rents can occur at any surf beach with breaking waves and these currents can sweep even the SPORT outlook for the hurricane season this year Collaborative 9 calls for a slightly below normal season strongest swimmer out to sea. Around 30 Partner of the Year with 8-13 named storms, out of those 3-6 deaths a year can be attributed to rip currents Hurricane hurricanes and out those 1-3 major hurri- along the local islands beaches. Summer is also Returned 10 canes. A first reaction from most would be the peak season for one of the deadliest Periods to think that, since the numbers are lower weather phenomena--lightning. There is no Effective 11 than previous years, so also will be the safe place outside when thunderstorms are in Communication threat to the local area. Nothing could be the area. If you hear thunder, you are likely When an 12 further from the truth. It does not matter within striking distance of the storm. For orga- Earthquake Strikes how active or inactive a season is expected nized outdoor activities, the National Weather Did You Know? 13 to be, it only takes one. We should always Service recommends that organizers have a be prepared and review our family prepar- lightning safety plan, and that they follow the edness plan at the beginning of the season. plan without exception. The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue1 1 2013-14 Swell Season is Over! By: Carlos M. Anselmi and Ernesto Rodríguez Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin longshore currents as well few years. Only six events the U.S. northeastern Islands’ wave climate is as rip currents (Figure 1). with swell of 8 feet or more coast, producing winds mainly affected by winter were observed from greater than 70 knots. swells, hurricane force Longshore currents are November through April by The low pressure system waves, and locally generated when waves the local buoy network had a broad wind field generated waves. Each year break at the coast inducing (Figure 2), with only one of that aimed a long period our coastal areas are currents parallel to the them surpassing the 10 feet swell toward the influenced by wind waves shoreline. On the other mark. The biggest event of northeast Caribbean. which can be divided into: hand, rip currents are the year occurred on the last These large long period wind-seas and swells. Wind week of March, were swell swells battering the coast -seas are waves generated resulted in high breaking by local winds. In contrast, waves, strong coastal swells are waves that travel currents, coastal erosion in groups and are generated and coastal flooding along by distant weather systems north facing coastlines of outside of the local area. Puerto Rico and the U.S. These swells propagate Virgin Islands. Please keep away from their generation in mind that even when area into our forecast area our coastal areas are not impacting our coastlines. been affected by large Locally we can divide the long period swells, other wave seasons in two: the Figure 1. Rip currents and longshore currents diagram. Both currents are generated by breaking wave action. However, rip currents can form in the factors can create winter season, extending vicinity of groins, jetties, piers or other man-made structures. Image hazardous marine from November to April, courtesy of the Division of Nearshore Research at Texas A&M University. conditions like local and the summer season waves and winds. That’s from May through October. localized currents moving height reached 13 feet with a why we, the San Juan Wave climatology reveals away from the beach at period of 16 seconds. This Weather Forecast Office, that on the North Coast of high speed. Other impacts event was generated by an strongly encourage you to Puerto Rico, 40 % of the of long period swells are intense low pressure system check the forecast before wind waves come from the coastal erosion and coastal that quickly intensified along going to the beach. east northeast, 21 % from flooding. In general, the the north east, 22 % from erosion rate tends to the east, 9 % from the north increase during the winter northeast, 3.5 % from the season, when large swells north with the remaining hit the coastlines removing from other directions, sediments from beaches. whereas on the south coast Coastal flooding occurs more than 70 % range from when large breaking waves the southeast to the at the coast generate northeast direction. Long flooding in long lying areas period swells during the along the shore. These winter season impact our processes endanger the life coastlines. and safety of beachgoers and negatively impact The combination of the properties along the swell height and swell coastline. period can significantly increase the breaking The 2013-14 swell season Figure 2. Summary of the 2013-14 swell season at the San Juan buoy waves. Large breaking was one of the most (41043). Upper part shows wave period in seconds and direction. The waves can generate strong inactive seasons of the past bottom part illustrates wave height in feet. The Whispering Trades | 4000 Carretera 190, Carolina, PR 00979 | Volume 2 Issue 1 2 Dry Season of 2014 By: Althea Austin-Smith Along with a weak Marine Swell Season came the Dry Season of 2014. The Dry Season was literally hot and dry with all the climatological statistics to support this. The percent of normal rainfall as of April - year to date continued to show rainfall deficits across the majority of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands except for St. Croix where value a slightly above normal. March was incredibly dry across Puerto Rico. Temperature-wise, year to date through April, 2014 ranked as the 2nd warmest start to the year for San Juan, PR and the 6th warmest start of the year for St, Croix USVI. The river and stream levels also showed the dry trend although as is expected, May brought significant rainfall to much of the region creating the opportunity for some much needed recharge along with some significant localized flash flooding. The question now becomes, what is on tap as we enter into the wet/hurricane season? Currently, the region is in an “El Niño Watch” which has a profound impact to the climate of our region. This is all explained by “The Enso Cycle”; the state of the ocean and atmosphere across the tropical Pacific. Based on our local ENSO study , an El Niño leads to the possibility of a drier than normal summer. If that is the case, it is very important that we use the water saving tips that are located throughout this Newsletter, which will help to conserve water. Small changes can have a huge impact if millions of people are involved. Flood Safety Preparedness By: Althea Austin-Smith Every year during the property that can occur in to include Flood Safety month of March, the any of the fifty states or Preparation including National Weather U.S. territories at any time applying for Flood Service (NWS) makes of year.” While many of Insurance if needed. considerable effort to us are prepared for educate our customers hurricanes and severe Along with the regular about the importance of weather, many do not campaign this year, we flood preparation think about and/or also revealed the local through its National prepare for the potential States Pages for PR and Flood Safety Awareness devastation of floods until the USVI, which give a Week campaign. The it is too late. There are summary of significant NWS states, “On numerous ways in which floods which impacted average, flooding causes floods impact our our local islands.
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